Middle infield revisited:

After devising the BFE measurement to apply to third basemen, I am examining the ranking of MLB second basemen and short stops based on their 2007 BFE numbers (Twins in bold, SS free agents in italics) Minimum 200 innings at the position and 250 AB:

Short Stops:

Rafael Furcal, LA: 1.331 (fewer than 250AB)
Hanley Ramirez, Fla: 1.194

Jerry Hairston Jr., Cin: 0.983
Mike Aviles, KC: 0.959
Jose Reyes, NYM: 0.949

J.J. Hardy, Mil: 0.890
Stephen Drew, Ari: 0.871
Jhonny Peralta, Cle: 0.854
Jimmy Rollins, Phi: 0.853
Derek Jeter, NYY: 0.852
Yunel Escobar, Atl: 0.848
Cristian Guzman, Was: 0.845
Jed Lowrie, Bos: 0.824
Clint Barmes, Col: 0.821
15.Nick Punto, Min: 0.808

Michael Young, Tex: 0.773
Miguel Tejada, Hou: 0.766
Ryan Theriot, ChC: 0.758
Marco Scutaro, Tor: 0.746
MLB AVERAGE: .745
Troy Tulowitzki, Col: 0.717
Maicer Izturis, LAA: 0.716
22.Brendan Harris, Min: 0.701

Erick Aybar, LAA: 0.690
Orlando Cabrera, CWS: 0.683
Jason Bartlett, TB: 0.682
Yuniesky Betancourt, Sea: 0.672
Edgar Renteria, Det: 0.661
David Eckstein, Tor/Ari: 0.645
Jack Wilson, Pit: 0.629
Julio Lugo, Bos: 0.622
Bobby Crosby, Oak: 0.610

Cesar Izturis, StL: 0.558
Jeff Keppinger, Cin: 0.539
Khalil Greene, SD: 0.527
Angel Berroa, LA: 0.507

36.Adam Everett, Min: 0.497
Omar Vizquel, SF: 0.407

Juan Castro, Bal/Cin: 0.279

Second basemen:

Mike Fontenot, CHI: 1.131 (246 AB)
Chase Utley, Phi: 1.105
Ian Kinsler, Tex: 1.069
Dustin Pedroia, Bos: 1.042
Dan Uggla, Fla: 1.024

Brian Roberts, Bal: 0.967
Mark DeRosa, ChC: 0.953

Ray Durham, Mil/SF: 0.867
Kelly Johnson, Atl: 0.858
Placido Polanco, Det: 0.849
Orlando Hudson, Ari: 0.846
Alexei Ramirez, CWS: 0.834
Joe Inglett, Tor: 0.825
Jose Lopez, Sea: 0.824
Kazuo Matsui, Hou: 0.823
Ronnie Belliard, Was: 0.812
Clint Barmes, Col: 0.804

Howie Kendrick, LAA: 0.796
Aaron Miles, StL: 0.794
MLB AVERAGE: 0.792
Mark Grudzielanek, KC: 0.782
Mark Ellis, Oak: 0.776
Akinori Iwamura, TB: 0.771
Mark Loretta, Hou: 0.770
Brandon Phillips, Cin: 0.760
Jeff Baker, Col: 0.755
Edgar Gonzalez, SD: 0.745
28.Nick Punto, Min: 0.744
Rickie Weeks, Mil: 0.739
Felipe Lopez, Was/StL: 0.737
31.Alexi Casilla, Min: 0.736
Marco Scutaro, Tor: 0.721
Asdrubal Cabrera, Cle: 0.720
Jeff Kent, LA: 0.719
35.Brendan Harris, Min: 0.716
Robinson Cano, NYY: 0.701

Adam Kennedy, StL: 0.693
Jamey Carroll, Cl: 0.689
Juan Uribe, CWS: 0.654
Damion Easley, NYM: 0.629
Freddy Sanchez, Pit: 0.604

Luis Castillo, NYM: 0.591
Eugenio Velez, SF: 0.573
Tadahito Iguchi, Phi/SD: 0.516


Some observations:

• Surprisingly, second base seems to be a bigger problem for the Twins in 2008, than SS


• Punto was an above average SS, ranking 15th out of 34 players, surpassing players like Michael Young and Miguel Tejada, while Harris at 23 was 3 spots below MLB average


• Punto was the highest ranking 2B at #28 but still well-below the MLB-average. Castillo (despite the fact that he is projected as a lock for the position in 2009, in most people's minds) was ranked at #31 and Harris at #35.


• Tolbert did not have enough innings or ABs to qualify for ranking in any position, while Everett was ranked close to the bottom in the SS rankings

How does this change my previous assessment of the middle infield needs? Not much. I did propose changes in both 2B and SS, and the numbers reinforce the need for change in 2B. I also think that Punto with his performance last year, plus the high contract offers for middle infielders (see: Ellis, Mark) has priced his way out of the Twins' organization. Steve Tolleson with a spectacular ALF performance (.426/.463/.590, 2HR, 16 RBI in 61 AB as of this post) and a solid minor league season will be in the mix and potentially fight with Tolbert for a position in the 25-men roster.

Third base revisited

In order to give an objective (see: measurable) application of the criteria, I previously suggested for potential third basemen targets, I devised a measurement that combines the performance of a player as a batter and as a fielder. This measurement (let's call it Batting and Fielding Effectiveness, BFE for the lack of a better name) is defined as (OPS+/100)*(FP)*(ZR).

As a reminder the 3 criteria for a potential third baseman target were defined as:


a. the Twins should not look at anyone with less production than the current Buscher/Harris platoon

b. Danny Valencia is thought by many insiders and fans to be the Twins 3rd baseman of the future, so any choice should potentially leave the door open for him

c. Any new third baseman should provide better power (in the numbers below expressed as SLG%), be right handed batter and provide better defense.

The definition of a "third baseman" I am using here is a player with at least 250 AB and at least 250 innings at third base. 56 players in the majors satisfy this definition, here is how they rank according to BFE (potential targets discussed before are indicated with italics, the Twins' third basemen are indicated with bold) :

Chipper Jones, Braves: 1.390
Kevin Youkilis, Red Sox: 1.168
Alex Rodriguez, Yankees: 1.167
Russell Branyan, Brewers: 1.087
David Wright, Mets: 1.052
Aubrey Huff, Orioles: 1.032

Evan Longoria, Rays: .998
Ty Wiggington, Astros: .973
Troy Glaus, Cardinals: .966
Chris Davis, Rangers: .948
Aramis Ramirez, Cubs: .923
Carlos Guillen, Tigers: .903

Adrian Beltre, Mariners: .887
Hank Blalock, Rangers: .873
Melvin Mora, Orioles: .865
Ron Belliard, Nationals: .848
Mike Lowell Red Sox: .828
Scott Rollen Blue Jays: .825
Casey Blake, Indians/Dodgers: .810

20. Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals .794
Gregg Dobbs, Phillies: .783
Ramon Vasquez, Rangers: .773
Omar Infante, Braves: .773
Willie Aybar, Rays: .765
MLB AVERAGE: .764
Jorge Cantu, Marlins: .756
Ian Steward, Rockies: .755
Joe Crede, White Sox: .744
Edwin Encarnancion, Reds: .738
Alex Gordon, Royals: .736
Marco Scutaro, Blue Jays: .736
Garett Atkins, Rockies: .728
Kevin Kouzmanoff, Padres: .726
Rich Aurilia, Giants: .708
34. Brian Buscher, Twins: .704

35. Brendan Harris, Twins: .699
Blake DeWitt, Dodgers: .686
Chone Figgins, Angels: .681
Jose Bautista, Pirates: .680
Jed Lowrie, Red Sox: .679
Brandon Inge, Tigers: .677
Doug Mientkiewicz, Pirates: .676
Jeff Blum, Astros: .666
Mark Reynolds, Diamondbacks: .659
Craig Council, Brewers: .656
Pedro Feliz, Phillies: .632
Jamie Caroll, Indians: .609
Bill Hall, Brewers: .606

Jose Castillo, Giants: .599
Juan Uribe, White Sox: .595
Jack Hannahan, As: .586
Wes Helms, Marlins: .560

German Duran, Rangers: .467
Rob Quinlan, Angels: .456
Mike Lamb, Twins: .432
Andy Marte, Indians: .414

Andy LaRoche, Dodgers/Reds: .276

There were a few surprises:

• The Twins situation at third base, which is thought as "serviceable" by many is more dire than thought, with the Twins' platoon ranking 34th and 35th out of 56 players


• Players like Russell Branyan, Chris Davis and Ron Belliard, who flew under the radar had surprisingly good years


• Players like Garrett Atkins, Edwin Encarnancion and Kevin Kouzmanoff, who are touted as the potential 3B solution for the Twins are not that much better than what the Twins currently have

Do the results make me amend my list of 4+1 real targets? Based on the above 3 criteria (RH batter included), and the fact that to make a serious difference the Twins should not look below the top 20 players (#20 is Ryan Zimmerman), I would gladly add Melvin Mora, Ron Belliard and Casey Blake to the list that includes Troy Glaus, Ty Wiggington, Adrian Beltre, Scott Rolen and Mike Lowell.

I will use the same analysis to the 2B/SS situation

The bottom line with the prosposed 2009 changes (and a bunch of stats to boot)

How many wins will the changes in the Twins’ lineup will produce? To answer this question we have to examine what makes the Twins’ teams under Gardenhire and his coaches win games and how many potential games will the Twins win in 2009 if they make these changes.

Keep in mind that before last season started I used different methodologies to predict that the Twins will win 89 games in 2008, amidst wild speculation from the 'experts' that they will finish 4th or 5th and barely crack 70 wins. Also, using game by game arguments, I predicted that Detroit will win a maximum of 79 games in 2008, while everyone else had them sweeping their way to the World Series. After much ridicule upon publication of these things last spring, I can now just say, “I told you so. And numbers do not lie if you know how to take advantage of them and use them correctly.”

But enough self-patting on the back. Self-induced high-fives look a lot like clapping and cannot clap when Tampa Bay instead of the Twins is playing today in the World Series.

That was then, this is now and there will be more game-to-game predictions coming next spring after the roster is settled, but I wanted to device a statistical way that would allow me to a. see what makes these Twins win (i.e. The Gardenhire era Twins) and b. what effect certain moves have on the Twins W-L record.

It is generally accepted that W-L record is related to the run differential of a team. Heck, Bill James devised his Pythagorean Wins Expectation formula based on Runs Scores (RS) and Runs Allowed (RA), and who the hell am I to doubt the word of the baseball statistics God? Nah, I am not doubting Bill James, but it is all about context (and a warning, from here on this is going to be pretty statistically intense, so if you want the bottom line skip at the end of the post.) One cannot predict how many games the Twins will win in 2008 and 2009 based on a formula constructed that includes data from the number of games the Babe Ruth- and Lou Gheric-led Yankee teams won in the deadball era. Context is extremely important in Baseball of all sports. Different teams have different philosophies and different practices. Thus, I am just looking at statistical samples of the Twins under Gardenhire, and this is what the quasi-big picture looks like:



Back to English:

What I did here was to look at several statistical measures (stats) from the Twins from 2002 on (listed as a table year by year) and see how they correlate with the Twins' W-L record that year (Because the Twins had a negative run differential in 2007, I had to correlate that to wins-82 to balance the scales in order for the algebra gods to not give me biased numbers)

What the results show is that the Gardenhine Twins W-L record correlates better (BTW, 1 is perfect correlation) not with ERA (light green/blue box), not with Run Differential (left pink box), even when the RD was normalized for the other teams of the AL Central winning percentage (far right pink box), but it correlated better with team OPS (yellow box).

OPS has two components: OBP and SLG. In the line underneath the year-by-year numbers, I correlated OPS for the Gardy Twins with OBP and SLG. As you can see,for the Gardy years, OPS is very closely correlated to SLG rather than OBP. I am not going to use this fact again (or against anyone other than Billy Bean and he is out of context, anywaya) but the take home lesson is that these Twins succeed when they have a higher slugging percentage (and this was quasi-empirically covered here, albeit in a very dry way.)

Alright... you buy it or not :) this is leading us to potentially formulate a relationship between OPS and wins for the Gardenhire Twins:



and based on the average and standard deviation, one can formulate an OPS vs. wins chart that would look like that:



(forget the italics for a moment) This basically allows you to calculate the maximum, average, and minimum wins expected based on a particular team OPS.

Aright. We got our formula, let's put in into play:



This figure turned up a little more complex than I wanted it (heck, I can't help it), so please ignore columns 3 and 4 (league OPS and diff). Column 1 is the field positions. Column 2 is their OPS. The column titled projected update is the projected OPS numbers of the Twins lineup with the proposed changes in the previous post. The projected OPS values I used are the projected PECOTA OPS values for the proposed Twins' lineup. To see whether that makes any sense, I had to do the control showing the projections of the 2008 starters column (far right), where I used the PECOTA projections for the 2008 Twins starters to predict team OPS. Using that, the Twins' team OPS was predicted to be .741 which is very close to the actual .747 and that makes me a bit more confident about the use of PECOTA projections for 2009.

So, the bottom line is (go to the previous table and look at the italics): with the proposed changes the Twins should win 4 more games than 2008.

Methinks that 92 games will lead the Twins to win the AL Central in 2009.

PS. I'd love to correlate the stat of your choice with the Twins' wins if you don't see it above. Just drop a comment and I'll make it happen...

Recap: proposed changes, 25 man roster and payroll for 2009.

To recap & summarize the previous posts, here are the proposed off-season changes and their cost to the Twins:

• Glenn Perkins, Brian Buscher and a prospect to the Cardinals for Troy Glaus ($12M)


• Boof Bonser and Trevor Plouffe to the Padres for Khalil Greene ($6.5M)


• Alexi Casilla, Brian Duensing, Phillip Humber and Sergio Santos to the Marlins for Dan Uggla ($5M)


• Sign Pedro Martinez ($6M)

total cost: $29 M, which will bring the Twins' 2009 payroll to $76 Million, or $4.5 million more than their 2007 payroll.

Thus, the Twins projected 25-man roster would be:

lineup (and batting order):

LF Span
RF Young
C Mauer
3B Glaus
1B Morneau
2B Uggla
DH Kubel
SS Greene
CF Gomez

bench:

C Redmond
IF Harris
IF Tolbert/Tolleson
OF/DH/1B Cuddyer

rotation:

SP Liriano
SP Slowey
SP Baker
SP Martinez
SP Blackburn

bullpen:

Joe Nathan RH
Pat Neshek RH
Jose Mijares LH
Craig Breslow LH
Jesse Crain RH
Robert Deleaney RH (or Korecky/Swarzak/Mulvey)
Matt Guerrier RH

Next posts: a. How many wins will this team get and b. changes in the minors & organization

New potential third base target?

In my analysis of potential third basemen targets, I concluded that there were only 4 players who meet the following criteria:

a. improve the infield defense
b. improve the hitting against LHP
c. improve the teams SLG%, esp. from the right side

and the improvement was based on the 2007 baseline numbers of the Twins' third basemen currently with the team:

Buscher (L) SLG .390 FP .938 ZR .774
Harris (R) SLG .394 FP .949 ZR .766

There are strong rumors out of Boston indicating that the Red Sox are looking into moving Lowell after they obtain a more powerful bat in the middle of their order (Texeira has been mentioned as a 1B, which will move Youkilis to 3B).

Lowell would fit the above criteria. His SLG was .461, FP .967 and ZR .815. He is a right hand batter and will be 36 at spring training. He is under contract through 2010 at $12M per year. Given the health concerns (he had back surgery that will cause him to be out until at least spring training - there are some reports that he will be out of the season), and the contract, a mid-level prospect would be adequate to complete the trade. For arqument's sake, lets assume that he will be healthy? Here is how Lowell ranks in the 2 factors used earlier to establish the order among the other 4:

Quality At-Bat %:

Rolen: 46%
Glaus: 46%
Wigington: 45%
Beltre: 44%
Lowell: 43%

Chase % with 2 Strikes:

Glaus: 30%
Wiggington: 36%
Lowell 37%
Rolen: 41%
Beltre: 51%

These results will put Lowell some place between Wiggington and Rolen, making the preferred order:

1. Glaus
2. Wiggington
3. Lowell
4. Rolen
5. Beltre

There are serious health concerns for Lowell, making his acquisition a potential high risk/high reward with minimum payment. The only problem with the Twins potentially going that direction is that the seriousness of his condition might not be known until February, which might too late to get another third baseman, if the medical reports are discouraging.

Offseason needs 4 and 5: bullpen and back up catcher

The Twins' quickly took care of need #5, by exercising Mike Redmond's option. I think that it was an ok move, because Redmond is as good as most older back up catchers out there, albeit with reduced production at the twilight of his career. In the next offseason moves installment, I will discuss "tooling" the organization and the major league bench, and a young ready in 2009 AAA catcher will be identified as a higher priority.

As far as the bullpen goes, the numbers indicate that in contrast to the popular opinion, the bullpen was not as big of a problem as most 'experts' think. Saying that the Twins have bullpen issues, is as valid as saying that the Tampa Bay Rays have bullpen issues because Joe Maddon mismanaged his pen in the ALCS game 5 loss to the Red Sox.

Last season the Twins had some awful pitchers in the pen (Rincon, Bass, Guardado and Guerrier in September) who were used by Gardy after repeated failure in high leverage situations. It is not the personnel, it is use of the personnel and that is where Anderson and Gardenhire should focus on 2009: Go with the hot hand and if someone fails in high leverage situations, use them in low leverage situations, until they prove they can make outs.

The Twins will have a 12-man pitching staff in 2009, which means 7 bullpen arms. If I were Bill Smith, having already traded Bonser, Humber and Duensing and letting Reyes leave as a free agent, my 2009 pen would look like this:

Joe Nathan Closer
Pat Neshek RH Set up
Jose Mijares LH Set up
Craig Breslow LH RH middle relief
Jesse Crain RH middle relief
Robert Deleaney RH middle relief
Matt Guerrier long relief/mop up

next installment: further tooling and the 25-man and 40-man rosters

On an unrelated note, Milwaukee fired their hitting coach. Here is an excerpt from the article:

Skaalen obviously paid the price for an offense that disappeared in September, causing the Brewers to almost miss the playoffs and resulting in the firing of Yost.

The operating word is "almost". The Twins' offense also disappeared in September, causing them to miss the playoffs (unlike the Brewers who made it to the postseason the first time since 1982), but the Twins' brass (unlike the Brewers who fired their manager and hitting coach and letting their interim manager go) are not only keeping, but looking to extend Gardy for 2 more years, in addition to his contact year, and retain all of his coaches... I guess accountability is a higher value for the their Twins' eastern neighbors, as apparently is the desire to win.

The Rule V draft liabilities for the Twins

The Rule V Draft is held annually during baseball's Winter Meetings. Teams must file a 40 man roster with the league office by November 20. Any player who fits all of the below criteria is eligible for the Rule V Draft:

• Player is not on the 40 man roster
  
• Player has been in the minor leagues for at least 4 years if he was signed after age 19 (was 3 years before the 2006 CBA).
  
• Player has been in the minor leagues for at least 5 years if he was signed before age 19 (was 4 years before the 2006 CBA).

Any player drafted must stay in the major leagues all season. Before he is sent to the minors, he must be offered back to the club who had his rights for a $25,000 waiver fee.

Often, teams will send a player in lieu of the fee.

Minor league teams can also participate in the draft. AAA teams can draft any player
eligible from AA for $12,000, and AA teams can draft any players that are eligible from A for $4,000. Players chosen in the minor league part of the draft do not need to return to the original teams for any reason.

Here is a list of the Twins eligible for the rule V draft. I am including all players not on the 25 man roster by the end of last season, regardless whether they are in the latest 40-man roster.

Batters:

Daniel Berg
Drew Butera
Toby Gardenhire
@Luke Hughes
Garrett Jones
Ryan Jorgensen#
?Erik Lis
Alejandro Machado
?Matthew Macri#
Felix Molina
?Jose Morales#
Matt Moses
Yancarlos Ortiz
Edward Ovalle
Rodolfo Palacios
?Brock Peterson
?Jason Pridie#
?Trevor Plouffe
Brandon Roberts
?Randy Ruiz#
Danny Santiesteban
Sergio Santos#
Eli Tintor
@?Matt Tolbert#
?Steven Tolleson
Tommy Watkins
Johnny Woodard


Pitchers:

Kyle Aselton
Ricky Barrett
Carmen Cali
Julio DePaula#
?Brian Duensing
?Matthew Fox
?Armando Gabino
?Mariano Gomez
Jose Lugo
?Danny Graves
?Philip Humber#
?Ben Julianel
?Bobby Korecky#
Timothy Lahey
Frank Mata
@Jose Mijares#
Jason Miller
?Ryan Mullins
?Yohan Pino
Jay Sawatski
Tom Shearn
David Shinskie
?Oswaldo Sosa#
?Danny Vais

Notes:

@almost certainly will be protected
?A potential target for Major league or minor league draft if not protected or a minor league free agent if not drafted
#currently on the 40 man roster

Currently, with the free agents Guardado, Punto and Everett assumed leaving, and Neshek returing and occupying a spot, there is one open spot on the 25-man roster, presumably taken by Tolbert. Assuming that Mijares and Hughes are locks to make the 40-man roster, this leaves 13 spots to protect the following players who might be major league or minor league rule V targets:


Ryan Mullins (*)
Yohan Pino (?)
Errol Simonitsch
Oswaldo Sosa (?)
Danny Vais (?)
Danny Graves
Philip Humber (*)
Ben Julianel
Bobby Korecky (?)
Brian Duensing (*)
?Trevor Plouffe (*)
Matthew Fox
Armando Gabino (*)
Mariano Gomez (?)
Steven Tolleson (*)
Randy Ruiz (?)
Brock Peterson (?)
Jason Pridie (*)
Jose Morales (*)
Matthew Macri (*)
Erik Lis (*)

I expect the Twins to protect the 10 players marked with an asterisk and select 3 from the 6 players marked with a (?) to use the 13 remaining spots to fill the 40-man roster. Brock Peterson's move to AAA, made it unlikely that he will be taken in the MLB draft (if left in AA, he and Lis were almost certain to be picked in the AAA part of the draft), so I do not think that he will be added to the 40-man roster

That, said, free agent signings and trades might change the look of the 40 man roster by November. At least this is a good overview of the potential Twins' liability, which does not look too bad.

The starting pitching situation - part II: the targets

As I indicated earlier, the Twins need a fifth starter to supplement Slowey, Baker, Liriano and Blackburn in the rotation. There are several internal possibilities (Swarzak, Mulvey); however, I think that the Twins need to reach outside the organization for a proven starter, keeping these 2 in AAA, in case of an emergency.

There are several big name high price free agents (Sabathia, Lowe, Shields) available, but they will be priced much higher than the Twins can (or should) spend. Peavy is also available in a trade; however, he is signed to a 3 year, $52 million contract, that does not reflect his ability.

Looking at the available pitchers, there are 2 intriguing and realistic possibilities, for the Twins to examine:

Pedro Martinez 37, RHP. Pedro had the most trying season of his career in 2009, coming back from shoulder surgery, injuring his hamstring and having his father pass away.
He started 20 games and pitched 109 innings, compiling a record of 5-6 with a 5.61 ERA, 1.569 WHIP and 44 BB vs 87 K. Returning from the shoulder injury, his fastball velocity was higher than recent years but his location suspect, potentially due to mechanical changes made by the Mets' pitching coaches. However, Martinez made adjustments throwing more off-speed pitches (only 59% of his pitches were fastballs) and his curve, thrown 16% of the time, was practically unhittable (.175 BAA compared to .346 BAA for his fastball). His changeup, used 20% of the time resulted to a .262 BAA.

Why do I think that it would be a good signing for the Twins?

Fastball location takes time to return following surgery (see: Liriano, Fransisco). His curve has been extremely effective post surgery and it is an out pitch. With proper rest and rehabilitation and return of the fastball location, he could win 15 games and post a sub 4.00 ERA, surpassing Perkins' performance in 2008. A season close to his last in Boston (when he was a post season hero) delivering a 16-9 record with a 3.90 ERA and a 1.171 WHIP is not out of the question.

In addition to the tangible benefits, there are the intangible: He is a first ballot hall of famer and will provide a positive presence among the Twins' young pitching staff. He can help players like Baker, Blackburn and Slowey develop. He has guts, he pitched hurt, he pitched through pain and never implodes on the mount. Those are good attributes to learn by example. In addition, he is a personable guy and first class person who has been shown to take young players under his wing

Pedro would likely command a one year, $5-8 million, contract ladden with incentives and an optional second year that can be guaranteed if those incentives are met.


Jamie Moyer 47, LHP, is probably the most quiet 246 game winner in baseball. He is participating in his fourth postseason and his first world series. Last year he compiled a 16-7 record with a 3.71 ERA and 1.329 WHIP playing in an extremely hitter friendly park (park factor 105). He stared 33 games and pitched 196.3 innings. In away games he posted a 2.92 ERA and a 2.40 BAA. Opponents hit .276 off his fastball (thrown 58% of the time), .233 off his curveball (6%), .239% off his slider (.13%) and .241% off his changeup (23%). He was in the second year of a 2-year $11 million contract with the Phillies.

Why would he be a good singing for the Twins?

Even though he will be 47 by next spring training, he is in top shape and very effective. The 196.3 innings he pitched this year was his lowest total since 2000. He is very durable, has a great delivery and is not injury prone. He had publicly said that he wants to pitch until 50 and he is in shape to make it happen. A second lefty would be a good addition to the rotation. In addition to his on the field accomplishments, he is a model citizen (like Martinez).

Jamie would likely command an incentive ladden 2 year contract at $5-7 million per year.

Who would I pick, if I were Bill Smith? Pedro is the more risky bet, but the facts are that: a. well, he is Pedro Martinez and b. in addition to filling up the dome (and potentially Target Field) every time he pitches he has the higher potential upside. It is very hard to pass on a 3-time Cy Young winner, who knows how to pitch in the important games and has a world series ring to show. And he is Pedro Martinez.

Thus, my fourth move this post season, would be to sing Pedro Martinez to an one year $5 million contract that can reach up to $8 million with incentives and a vesting option for the second year based on innings pitched.

Next installment: bullpen

The starting pitching situation - part I: 2008 status

An interesting post by Buster Olney, provides a great segway to the next installment of the Twins needs this season, starting pitching. He posts numbers compiled by the Elias sports bureau that show the percentage of batters faced when a pitcher was behind 2-0 or 3-1, for pitchers on both leagues. Liriano did not make the cut because of the limited time he pitched, but 3 Twins' starters were in the top 20:

Kevin Slowey was second with (.116) narrowly edged by Ervin Santana (.114) and tied with the mighty Greg Maddux; he was ahead of Cliff Lee (.128), Johan Santana (.130), C.C. Sabathia (.135). Scott Baker's numbers were .142 and Nick Blackburn's .146.

Perkins did not make the cut. Given the situational performance of the starters last season, and disregarding stats like W-L record, and ERA, Perkins was clearly the sixth best starter (behind Slowey, Baker, Liriano, Blackburn and Bonser). Perkins is primarily a fastball pitcher who gets in trouble when he cannot locate his fastball or when he throws it down the middle of the plate (and his tendencies are to do exactly the latter when he is pressing...) His off-speed stuff is hittable as much as a Livan Hernandez fastball and his fastball does not fare much better, because of the aforementioned location problems. At least Livan had his curve as an out pitch:

Pitcher       Pitch            BAA

Perkins      Slider           .351
Perkins      Changeup         .300
Perkins      Curve            .286
Perkins      Fastball         .299
Livan        Fastball         .359
Livan        Curve            .227

Clearly the Twins have 3 starters (Slowey, Baker, Liriano) who can be #2-#3 starters in any team in the league and can develop into aces, as well as a solid bottom of the rotation starter (Blackburn). I think that a 5th starter is necessary for the Twins to take the next step, and this is not Perkins or Bonser. Perkins and Bonser do have trade value and as I proposed earlier, they can bring valuable players for the Twins, if packaged correctly.

also, here is the "luck" metric (Luck, as measured by the number of extra wins, and short losses the pitcher actually got, versus his expected record. LUCK = (W-E(W))+(E(L)-L) ) of the Twins' starters according the Baseball Prospectus:

Slowey -2.09
Bonser -1.00
Blackburn 1.00
Liriano 1.23
Baker 3.27
Hernandez 5.93
Perkins 7.64


Next: potential starting pitchers inside and outside the organization

The middle infield market.

Middle infield, esp. SS, is one of the needs that the Twins need to address this season, since both players who spent the majority of time as starting Shortstops (Nick Punto and Adam Everett) are free agents.

Here is the production on the plate by the middle infield for the Twins in 2008, broken down by month, compared to the twins team (all position players):

           April    May    June    July    Aug    Sept   Overall 

Team:      .666    .740    .770    .802    .771   .739    .748 

Punto:     .568    .884    .774    .817    .744   .653    .726
Casilla:           .937    .742    .718    .622   .574    .707
Harris:    .716    .609    .649    .811    .788   .878    .721 
Everett:   .437    .628                    .704   .764    .601 (career: .653)
Tolbert:   .700    .560                           .897    .711

Here are the fielding numbers from the Twins infielders in 2008:

Defense:   2B FP    2B ZR    SS FP      SS ZR  (min 20 inn)

Punto      .985     .787     .973      .865
Casilla    .974     .830 
Harris     .969     .786     .976      .764
Everett                      .967      .829  (career: .976 FP .876 ZR)
Tolbert    .978     .758     .976      .794

The incumbent SS (Punto) had an .726 OPS with .973 FP and .865 ZP. Everett's career numbers are also included, since he spent the majority of the season injured. Some observations:

• Nick Punto had a good year on the field at SS and an average year on the plate, while Everett was hurt most of the season


• The monthly breakdown, suggests that Punto and Casilla ran out of steam the last 2 months of the year, while Harris, Everett and Tolbert improved as the season moved on.


• Casilla's decrease in production was linear and it is troublesome to the point that there might be questions whether he could hold a starting job next year. Most of the fans remember Casilla's game winning hit sweeping the White Sox the last series at the Dome in September, as well as his timely hits and energy infusion to the club when he was called up. However, overall his production was slowed during the season

Here is a look at potential targets for the SS position, along with their 2008 numbers (career numbers added when appropriate), age, RH/LH/S batting, and potential cost for the Twins to obtain or sign. The cost for resigning the Twins' free agents is also included

Free agents (SS):

Raphael Furcal(S, 31): 1.012 OPS .972 FP .856 ZR (35 games started)
(career: .764 OPS .966 FP .834 ZR)
Cost: $12M for 3 years

Orlando Cabrera (R, 35): .721 OPS .978 FP .831 ZR
Cost: $10M/3 years

Cesar Izturis (S, 29): .628 OPS .980 FP .850 ZR
Cost: $1.5M/2 years

Punto, cost $3.5M/3 years
Everett cost $1.5M/1 year

Potential trade targets (SS):

J.J. Hardy (R, 26): .821 OPS .977 FP .813 ZR
Cost: To Brewers, at least one young starting pitcher, potentially and outfielder and another prospect. To Hardy, 2 years of arbitration at $6M-$7M each

Khalil Greene (R, 29): .599 OPS. (career: .731 OPS) .982 FP .852 ZR
Cost: To Padres, an average starting pitcher (Bonser/Humber) and a prospect. To Greene: 1 year $6.5-7.5M (based on incentives). His relations with Padres are strained and the Padres will be more than willing to let go.


There has been discussion to sign and/or trade for a second baseman, switching Casilla to SS. I cannot find the ZR numbers of Casilla at SS, but his career FP at SS is .963.

Looking at potential 2B free agents and trade targets:

Free agents (2B):

Mark Ellis (R, 31): .694 OPS .993 FP .868 ZR
Cost: $4M/ 3 years

Orlando Hudson (S, 31): .817 OPS .982 FP .790 ZR
Cost: $7M/ 3 years

Potential trade target (2B)

Dan Uggla (R, 29): .874 OPS .981 FP .803 ZR
Cost: To the Marlins: A starter, an infielder and a prospect; To Uggla: 3 years of arbitration at $6-8M each

There are several options for the Twins to chose:

• the worst of it is staying put and using Casilla at 2B, while having Harris, Tolbert and Plouffe battle for a starting SS position.


• along the same lines, they could resign Punto as the starting SS, have Casilla as the starting 2B and Tolbert and Harris would play utility roles. Even though Punto is adequate as a starting SS, there are the previously indicated questionmarks about Casilla being able to hold his 2B job on a day to day basis. For fairness sake, Casilla played hurt during September, so it is difficult to determine whether his numbers slit because of that and he needs the benefit of the doubt. Furthermore, SS is probably a lesser priority than a power bat at 3B at this point


• Signing a free agent SS, other than Furcal does not make much sense, since Cabrera (who is not a spring chicken any more) will likely have the production of Punto or Harris and Izturis the production of Everett. If the Twins have an extra $12M a year to spend, signing Furcal would be great, but I suspect that after getting a third baseman, they cannot spend that much money for a SS


• How about trades? I do not see the J.J. Hardy trade happening, mainly because, what the Brewers need in return, is better spend and it is probably what it will take to get a third baseman. On the other hand, the Greene option needs to be at least entertained. Greene is a premium defender and he has some pop with the bat. He is slugging .802 career away from Petco field. His relations with the Padres are severely strained and the Padres may let him walk for a package centered around someone like Boof Bonser, which would be a win-win situation for both teams


• I do not like the idea of moving Casilla to SS, especially since he is getting comfortable at 2B; so obtaining a second baseman outside the organization would be difficult. Both free agents are probably going elsewhere: Ellis has indicated that he wants to stay with the As and the As like him, so he probably will not move. Hudson is very high at the Mets' radar and the Twins will get outbid in a bidding war


• How about Uggla? This is an intriguing possibility, for several reasons: The Marlins are looking to trade power hitting for pitching and defense, have 18 arbitration-eligible players and obtaining Uggla will solve 2 holes in the Twins' lineup: a middle infielder and another (3B is still higher priority) power RH bat. How can they Twins get Uggla if they use Perkins to get a third baseman, without breaking up the rotation? They have to be creative and offer the Marlins a package centered around Casilla, one of Swarzak/Duensing, Humber and possibly a prospect.

What would I do if I were Bill Smith? Having traded already Glenn Perkins, Brian Buscher and a prospect (let say Dustin Martin) to the Cardinals for Troy Glaus, I would trade Boof Bonser and Trevor Plouffe to the Padres for Khalil Greene and Alexi Casilla, Brian Duensing, Phillip Humber and Sergio Santos to the Marlins for Dan Uggla

The results would be Dan Uggla as the every day 2B, Khalil Green as the every day SS and Troy Glaus as the every day 3B, freeing up 8 spots on the 40 man roster and filling up 3 (net: four 40 man roster open spots.) Harris and Tolbert will be the backups at the infield positions. Note: The Twins do not have to trade Casilla for Ugla and it will be an unpopular move with a lot of the fans (see: Garza, Matt); however, I think that the probability for winning will be higher with Uggla at 2B and the Twins will clear up several (3) spots on their 40 man roster with this trade, to protect players like Swarzak, Hughes and Valencia.

Going back to the needs of the Twins this offseason, these 3 trades would take care of the first 3 needs in the list (2 power RH bats, a 3B, a SS). Coming up soon are my suggestions on how to fill the rest of the needs, along with projected lineups, 25-man and 40-man rosters, as well as payroll.


Edit 10/15:

I run the proposed trades through my simulator and it looks like just Perkins might be enough for Glaus, Bonser might be enough for Greene and Casilla and Humber enough for Uggla. I figured that the above proposal would probably be overpaying for the Twins, so I expect them to pick up some additional prospects (hopefully catchers) along in these trades.

The potential third base market

Third base is one of the most pressing needs for the Twins this offseason and should be their number one priority for an upgrade. I am attempting to look at what the Twins currently have and assess the possibilities at the free agent and trade market. There are a few caveats:

a. the Twins should not look at anyone with less production than the current Buscher/Harris platoon
b. Danny Valencia is thought by many insiders and fans to be the Twins 3rd baseman of the future, so any choice should potentially leave the door open for him
c. Any new third baseman should provide better power (in the numbers below expressed as SLG%), be right handed batter and provide better defense.


The baseline on which the Twins have to compare any new acquisition was the production of Buscher and Harris at the plate and on the field in 2008:


Buscher (L) SLG .390 FP .938 ZR .774
Harris (R) SLG .394 FP .949 ZR .766

A list of the third basement who might be available this off season, with their ages on opening day 2009, slugging percentage, fielding percentage and zone ratings, categorized in groups of players:

Even money:

Hall, 29 (R) SLG .396 FP .939 ZR .817

Stay away, if possible. The internal options will probably result in at least equal production and are less expensive.

Better with the bat, not much upgrade on the field:

Mora 37 (R) SLG .483 FP .960 ZR .777
Blake 36 (R) SLG .463 FP .957 ZR .768
Edwin Encarnacion 26 (R) SLG .466 FP .930 ZR .762
Atkins 29 (R) SLG .452 FP .954 ZR .769
Cantu 26 (R) SLG .481 FP .937 ZR .720
Kouzmanoff 28 (R) SLG .433 FP .974 ZR .768
Garciaparra 36 (R) SLG .466 FP .920 ZR .769
Blalock 28 (L) SLG .508 FP .951 ZR .759

Some players in this group might make sense but only if any of the next group's players are unattainable.

Better with the bat, better on the field. The real targets:

Wiggington 31 (R) SLG .526 FP .969 ZR .791
Beltre 30 (R) SLG .457 FP .964 ZR .844
Glaus 33 (R) SLG .483 FP .982 ZR .793
Rolen 34 (R) SLG .431 FP .964 ZR .807

Any of these 4 players could fill 3 needs for the Twins in 2009:

a. improve the infield defense
b. improve the hitting against LHP
c. improve the teams SLG%, esp. from the right side

Who would be the best acquisition of these 4? Let's look at them a bit closer.

Ty Wiggington is the surprise name in this list. He has been able to very quietly produce a .285/.350/.526 season with 23 HRs and 58 RBI for the Astros, hitting .340/.424/.631 against LHP. He is arbitration eligible for the second year (currently 1 year contract @ $4.3M) and expected to receive about $6M for 2009. He is under club control for 2009 and 2010 and there are no rumors out of Houston for his potential availability. The Astros have two potential replacements: Mark Saccomanno, 28, AAA, who has been tearing the cover out of the ball, but tearing up the field as well (think Randy Ruiz with more power) and Chris Johnson in AA who is not a top flight prospect. Another (and more realistic possibility) is to more Tejada to 3B and slide in Edwin Maysonet, 26, at SS. What would it take for the Twins to make it happen? The Astros see themselves as perennial contenders. The reality is that it is an aging club with a depleted minor league system and bad starting pitching at the majors. My gut feeling is that they are not in any hurry to deal for Wiggington, so the Twins will have to somewhat sweep them off their feet. Offering someone like Perkins, in normal circumstances would be sufficient, but the Twins will probably need to add Brian Buscher as an insurance at 3rd for the Astros, plus a minor leaguer like Jason Miller.

Adrian Beltre has been at the Twins' sight during the trading deadline, but the pyramid of interims at the Mariner's front office would not pull the trigger. Beltre hit .266/.327/.457 during the season, batting .340/.421/.573 against LHP. He is under contract until the end of the 2009 season ($12M) and has a limited no-trade clause blocking trade to 6 teams. It is unknown whether the Twins are included, however the fact that there were talks at the deadline, suggest that they are not. How attainable is he, depends on the new management team of the Mariners. If the new management assess the situation at the AL West realistically and understands that the Mariners will not be contenders in 2009 with the Angels having a great core and the Rangers (with the best minor league system in professional ball), a couple of pitchers away, they will try to rebuild an make him available. Their 2008 payroll was close to $118M and would try to shed some. If they think they will contend, he will probably not be made available. What would it take to get him from the Mariners, if they are in rebuilding mode? MLB-ready Youth at starting pitching, primarily and at the outfield and infield, secondarily. A potential trade, centered around Perkins, Bonser and Tolbert with the addition of a prospect like Trevor Plouffe or Dustin Martin can make this happen.

Troy Glaus in his first season with the Cardinals after acquired from Toronto for the other potential Twins' targer, Scott Rollen, had a .270/.372/.483 season, batting an uncharacteristic .221/.337/.429 against LHP (his career numbers against lefties are: .278/.399/.559.) The Cardinals are in a somewhat interesting situation: they exceeded expectations competing for the NL Central Division and the NL Wild Card for most of the season, when most people had them written off (sounds familiar?); they know that Milwaukee will lose their 2 best pitchers next year, but the Cubs will be pretty much unchanged, and their current payroll is at a team record $99.6M. Glaus' contract, however, is a bit peculiar: He has a player option for 2009 ($11.25M) and if he does not exercise it he will be a free agent. I have been checking the St. Louis media and there is a cemetery-like silence about whether or not Glaus will exercise his option or an extension will be negotiated. This is a wait and see type of situation and I think that Glaus has a week after the world series to exercise his option. If he does (and it is a good bet because there are not many teams in the market for a third baseman who would be willing to shed a multi-year contract for him), it is not out of the realm of reality that the Cardinals would deal him to reduce payroll. Pitching and 2B is a big need for them, so a deal centered around Perkins and Tolbert with the addition of prospects might make it happen.

Scott Rolen was touted as the second coming of Mike Schmidt when he came up with the Philies 12 years ago as a 21 year old and the cross was proven too heavy to bear despite the rookie of the year award and 4 all star game starts. Scott hit .262/.349/.431 last year with Toronto, hitting LHP at a .250/.370/.390 pace, which was like his trade mate Glaus, well off his career mark of .280/.404/.506. Why would Toronto trade him? Because they need to realize that with the upcoming loss of AJ Burnett and the resurgent Rays they will probably be the 4th best team in the league next year and need to rebuild. What would it take for the Twins to get Rolen? Toronto is a very old team on the field and its starting pitching is lacking. A trade centered around Perkins and Tolbert, with a position prospect like Plouffe in the mix and the addition of Buscher for Marco Scutaro, plus a Twins' prospect could make it happen. Rolen is signed up to 2010 at $11M a year.


Which of the four would I pick, if I had to chose? Tough question that needs more analysis and dusting the scouting reports out...

Looking at 2 parameters that the Twins really need help with, here are the 2008 numbers of Chase % with 2 Strikes and Quality At-Bat %:

Quality At-Bat %:

Rolen: 46%
Glaus: 46%
Wigington: 45%
Beltre: 44%

(a virtual tie)

Chase % with 2 Strikes:

Glaus: 30%
Wiggington: 36%
Rolen: 41%
Beltre: 51%

Given the fielding numbers and power numbers mentioned above, my pecking order would be:

1. Glaus
2. Wiggington
3. Rolen
4. Beltre

So, you hear it here first: Troy Glaus should be the Twins' target for the 3B hole...

The season in review: starting pitching food for thought

here are some numbers to ponder (I am including Santana's in 2008 for comparison purposes)

123 inning % of complete innings pitched:

Slowey: 49%
Liriano: 45%
Baker: 44%
Blackburn: 40%
Bonser: 38%
Perkins: 34%

Santana: 38%

Opponents BA against sliders (and % of pitches that was a slider):

Liriano: .125 (26%)
Baker: .190 (21%)
Bonser: .228 (20%)
Slowey: .256 (12%)
Blackburn: .293 (22%)
Perkins: .351 (7%)

Santana: .247 (11%)

Opponents BA against curves:

Bonser: .186 (16%)
Baker: .222 (10%)
Slowey: .261 (12%)
Blackburn: .280 (13%)
Perkins: .286 (7%)
Liriano: N/A


Santana: N/A

Opponents BA against changeups:


Baker: .204 (7%)
Slowey: .261 (7%)
Liriano: .264 (19%)
Perkins: .300 (14%)
Blackburn: .350 (9%)
Bonser: .412 (5%)


Santana: .164 (28%)

The season in review - introduction: two out of three ain't bad

The Twins finish a close second in the AL Central, an unexpected finish for many; however falling short of my preseason expectations for this team. It was a season where the glass was filled at the half-mark. Some may think of it as half-full some as half-empty. It was a season of growth, but also a season of missed opportunity. It is imperative for this organization to learn from the lessons of this season, reinforce the positives and prepare to avoid the negatives, in order to create a champion.

here are the monthly splits of starters' ERA, relievers' ERA, OPS and the record for each month:

month  record starters ERA relievers ERA    OPS

april  14-14     4.74        3.54          .666 
may    15-13     4.43        3.94          .740  
june   17-11     4.70        3.24          .770
july   15-10     4.28        5.21          .802
august 17-12     3.09        4.13          .771
sept   11-15     4.92        3.68          .739

To quote Meatloaf, a brief descriptive one liner for the Twins' season would be "two out of three ain't bad". When two of these indicators were at or above the league average (.749 OPS, 4.44 Starter ERA and 4.10 reliever ERA) the Twins were winning... When 2 of these indicators were below those averages the Twins were losing.

What caused the September collapse? Sub-par hitting, but mostly sub-par starting pitching.

In the monthly break downs the bullpen had only one month (July) below league average, the starters had 3 (April, June, September) and the batters three (April, May, September). So while the ousting of Livan Hernandez (and his replacement with Liriano) and Bass and the call up of Mijares, gave a big breath for the bullpen in August and especially September and in August for the rotation, the inability to replace Mike Lamb with a productive bat (Brian Buscher's OPS in September was .578) and the inability of Gardenhire to go with the hot bats, cost this team.

To expand on the last point: If one of the two lagging factors (starter ERA or team OPS) ware close to league average in September, the team would have had a better chance to win that month. Given that the starters ran out of gas and there were not many replacement options, better attention should have been paid to keep the hot bats in the lineup.

Examples:

1. As said, Buscher had an .578 OPS in September, but had 55 plate appearances, while Brandon Harris who had .878 OPS for the month, had 44 plate appearances.


2. Nick Punto had a .653 OPS in September but was preferred (93 PA) over Adam Everett (.764 OPS, 11PA) and Matt Tolbert (.897 OPS, 33 PA).


3. Similarly, Alexi Casilla finished September with .574 OPS and 113 PA; some of those should have been taken by Tolbert


4. At DH, Michael Cuddyer with an injured foot and a .667 OPS in September (20 PA) and Kubel (.777 OPS) in September (77 PA) took ABs against LHP from Randy Ruiz who had only 14 PA in the month, even though he posted a .790 OPS the previous month

The Twins needs in the offseason

Quick and Dirty

1. One or 2 power bats; hopefully both, but at least one RH


2. A Third baseman


3. A SS


4. A starting pitcher to compliment Slowey, Liriano, Baker and Blackburn in the rotation


5. Two relievers: An 8th inning RHP and a 7th inning RHP


6. A back-up catcher

What the Twins have to spend in the offseason

Here is the bottom line for what the Twins have to spend in the off-season, if they are willing to get their payroll to 2007 level:

Pluses:

$15 million for the difference between 2008-2007
$5 million Livan
$2.5 million Rincon
$2.8M Everett
$2.4M Punto
$1M Reyes
$1M Guerrier
$.5M Lamb (the Twins have to pay him 3M in 09 but paid $3.5 in 2008)
$3.8M Monroe
$1M Redmond

total: +$35M

minuses:

Morneau +$3.2M
Mauer +$4.3M
Cuddyer +1.8M
Crain +$.7M
Kubel +? (assume $1M)


total: +11.5M

Net=
$24M

And this assumes that Cuddyer will be with the team next year…

(If the re-sign Redmond and offer arbitration to Guerrier, the number drops around $22.5 million)

and they are willing to get to the league median payroll of $81M (Brewers), it would be $34M

Hiatus ended with the Twins' season

I took a month break because they were winning, but now that the season is over, it is time to post and focus in the offseason...

My post season predictions:

Rays over White Sox (4)
Red Sox over Angels (4)

Red Sox over Rays (6)

Philies over Milwaukee (4)
Dodgers over Cubs (5)

Dodgers over Philies (7)

Dodgers over Red Sox (7)
Manny Ramirez WS MVP

A milestone has been reached

With yesterday's win by Liriano, every Twins' starting pitcher has a winning record. Do you know when was the last time in the Twins' franchise that every starting pitcher ended with a winning record?

Answer:

1969 Boswell, Perry, Kaat, Hall, Chance
1965 Kaat, Grant, Pascual, Perry, Merritt

Separated at birth (or a long lost parent?)

Brian Buscher and George "the animal" Steele

Pen or rotation?

pen vs. rotation is a chicken vs. egg problem imho, and I am sure that there are a lot of “gut feelings” about what needs to be fixed out there…

Appearances indicate that the pen is more of an issue now (team ERA 1st half 3.85, 2nd half 4.71) vs the rotation (1st half 4.59 2nd half 4.00); however, if one looks at opponents BABIP during those spits, the rotation opponents BABIP dropped from .313 in the first half to .284 in the second half, whereas the bullpen opp BABIP was raised from .301 in the first half to .322 in the second half.

So does lady luck have anything to do with it and the team is due for a correction (and the last couple of starts were a sing of correction for the rotation -towards the wrong way- and we should expect a correction -towards the right way- for the pen?) Possibly. The pen opp BABIP in August has been an insane .367, where that of the rotation jumped from a low .274 in July to an average .291 in August.

Are personnel changes necessary?

The rotation got a boost by the Liriano for Livan change. Even though it has been an up and down situation, I am not sure that there are better options out there for the remainder of the season.

As far as the pen goes, I think that Guerrier will rebound, since he has been very unlucky this month (opponent BABIP July .300, August .522; and any way you cut it, those numbers indicate that there is more than ‘overuse’, ‘tired arm’ etc.) It is still amazing to see Bass with the team. Bringing Korecky up for middle relief (* what is that Gardy garbage that ‘Korecky has to develop a change up before he makes it to the majors’ while Bass has no plus pitches, btw?) and keeping Boof for mop up work exclusively when the game is out of reach with the hope that he might turn it around next season, might help a lot for the remainder of this month.

Overall is a bit frustrating to see large leads lost, but I think that no major changes are needed (and even if there were needed, they could not happen) at this point…

Casilla to start rehab assignment