Something about pitching or why Kevin Slowey was more effective than Johan Santana

In order to evaluate position players more effectively, a couple of weeks ago I introduced a new statistic, bating and fielding efficiency (BFE). There are some established statistical measure that can tell you about a pitcher's performance, independent of the fielding of the team behind him. A couple of those are Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) and eXpected Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP) and Defense-Independent Component ERA (DICE). You can see the formulae for these measurement in this excellent Wikipedia article. I have 2 problems with these formulae:

1. They use arbitrary numericals to factor and add to the statistical measurements within their equations (3, 13, 2, 3.2)


2. For some strange reason, hits given are not included, but home runs are, factored by a huge 13-times factor


3. Bases on balls are factored by 3, strikeouts are factored by 2


4. Home runs are based mostly on a hitters capability and the park and not on the pitcher, whereas the defense does not have that much of a role for a hit.

Let's clarify the last point:
One of the statistics I will use to evaluate pitching is WHIP. Arguably, WHIP might be defense dependent, but how much?

Defense has 2 flavors:

a. accuracy - reflected by Errors. Errors do not count on WHIP, so that is out.

b. range - let’s use the plus minus system for this to understand the impact:

in 2008 the best defender in baseball as far as plus-minus goes was Chace Utley with a total score of 49 (i.e. he made 49 plays the average player does not make). He made a total of 803 plays (340 POs and 463 assists) even if we assume that all those +49 plays took a hit away (which is a stretch, because some of those were to get the lead runner in a double play or fielder’s choice, both of which do not take hits away from a pitcher’s WHIP).

49 is 6.1% of his total plays. If you divide that by 5 starting pitchers you get 1.2%.

So the best defender in baseball saved 1.2% of the hits for a particular starting pitcher (stretch). If you take the MLB average for 2008 pitchers 0.37 BB/Hits, 0.37 of a pitcher’s WHIP is a factor of BB and 0.73 a factor of hits. So the difference that the best ranging defender can potentially make on a pitcher’s WHIP is 0.88%

With examples:

Perkins’ WHIP in 2008 was 1.470, in that theoretical best case scenario would have been 1.457

Let’s go more extreme: here are the best plus minus numbers per position in 2008 (2B was Utley): 1B +24, 3B + 32, SS +23, LF +23, CF +32, P +16.
If you build a team with those people as defenders, the 0.88% difference above due to just Utley would become 2.8%

In other words, Perkins with the best defense in the MLB Universe of 2008 would have a WHIP of 1.429 instead of 1.470 (even with the best case scenario that all plus plays take hits away). Not much difference. Certainly not enough to discount the hits a pitcher gives as part of how effectively he pitches.

I created a new measurement, called Pitching Effectiveness (PE) which is simply: (K/9*K/BB)/WHIP. All these factors take into account how a pitcher is performing without extraneous factors. Here is a list of the 2008 MLB pitchers who pitched more than 20 innings and had a PE over 20, broken down by starters and relievers and sorted by decreasing PE (I included all Twins pitchers for comparison):

Starters

Dan Haren, AZ 39.13
Josh Beckett, BOS 37.83
Roy Halladay, TOR 37.81
Ervin Santana, LAA 35.79
CC Sabathia, MIL 34.08
Ricky Nolasco, FLA 31.68
Cliff Lee, CLE 30.84
Rich Harden, CHC 30.77
Kevin Slowey, MIN 30.67
Tim Lincecum, SF 28.29
Randy Johnson, AZ 26.85
Mike Musina, NYY 26.66
Cole Hamels, PHI 26.52
James Shields, TBR 23.23
Johan Santana, NYM 22.54
Javier Vasquez, CHW 21.46
Roy Oswalt, HOU 21.19
Scott Baker, MIN 20.98
Ben Sheets, MIL 20.97
Zack Greike, KCR 20.86
Jake Peavy, SD 20.50

Other Twins:

Boof Bonser: 13.44
Fransisco Liriano: 11.91
(Matt Garza 10.91)
Nick Blackburn: 8.09
Glenn Perkins: 5.69
(Livan Hernandez: 3.13)

Relievers

Mariano Riviera, NYY 189.22
Jonathan Papelbon, BOS 101.06
Billy Wagner, NYM 57.94
Sergio Romo, SFG 51.05
Kerry Wood, CHC 49.00
Hong-Chih Kuo, LAD 48.76
Grand Balfour, TB 48.49
Trevor Hoffman, SD 45.02
Joe Nathan, MIN 44.89
Scott Eyre, PHI 43.89
Matt Thorton, CHW 41.92
Brian Fuentes, COL 39.87
Mike Adams, SD 38.14
Joey Devine, OAK 37.91
Tagashi Saito, LAD 36.16
Joakim Soria, KCR 35.56
Carlos Marmol, CHC 35.22
Frank Francisco, TEX 32.67
Octavio Dotel, CHW 32.43
Rafael Perez, CLE 32.16
Scott Linebrink CHW 32.00
Chad Qualls AZ, 31.91
Jonathan Broxton, LAD 31.87
Jose Valverde, HOU 31.71
Mike Gonzalez, ATL 31.14
Jon Raunch, AZ 28.83
Max Scherzer, AZ 27.06
Brad Lidge, PHI 25.61
Joba Chamberlain, NYY 25.50
Neal Cotts, CHC 25.10
Taylor Buchholz, COL 24.89
Wade Corey, LAD 23.65
Joe Nelson, FLA 23.01
JUan Cruz, AZ 22.52
Jeremy Affeldt, CIN 22.37
Damaso Marte, NYY 22.36
Ramon Troncoso, LAD 22.10
Edwar Ramirez, NYY 21.89
Jesse Carlson, TOR 20.91
Doug Brocail, HOU 20.90
Arthur Rhodes, FLA 20.45
Brandon Morrow, SEA 20.12
Manny Delcarmen, BOS 20.08

Other Twins:

(Pat Neshek: 31.64 less than 20 innings)
Dennys Reyes: 16.59
Craig Breslow: 13.59
Jesse Crain: 10.90
Matt Guerrier: 7.00
(Juan Rincon: 6.27)
(Brian Bass: 4.58)

The MLB averages for 2008 were:

MLB starter average WHIP 1.39
MLB starter average K/9 6.20
MLB starter average K/BB 2.06
MLB Starter average PE: 9.19


MLB reliever average WHIP 1.39
MLB reliever average K/9 7.80
MLB reliever average K/BB 1.94
MLB reliever average PE: 10.89


It is expected that relievers would have higher PE numbers than starters and they do. A couple of observations: Slowey and Baker were the best Twins starters. Slowey is among the pitching elite. BTW, for those who are lamenting the Delmon Young trade, Matt Garza's PE was 10.91, placing him as the 5th best potential Twins starter. Glenn Perkins is trailing the starting group and Nick Blackburn's numbers are below MLB average, making Perkins and potentially both expendable. Bonser should get another chance to make the rotation and Liriano's PE was hurt by his horrid first few starts.

The Twins need at least 2 relievers above 20 in 2009 now that they lost Neshek. Mijares could be there, but at least another right handed reliever would be welcomed. From the list of relievers here, Jeremy Affeldt (22.37), Doug Brocail (20.90), Juan Cruz (22.52), Brian Fuentes (39.89, probably a closer someplace other than the Twins), Trevor Hoffman (45.02, probably a closer someplace other than the Twins), Bobby Howry (23.40), Damaso Marte (22.36), Arthur Rhodes (20.45) and Kerry Wood (49.00, probably a closer someplace other than the Twins) are free agents; so are Kyle Farnsworth (16.55), Brandon Lyon (15.23), Will Ohman (15.74), Darren Oliver (15.62) and Russ Springer (17.26), all with PE higher than the remaining Twins. Given the facts that the Twins would probably like a right hander and some of the above players will sign as closers, the list gets smaller, but there are still more than a few potential targets remaining. Other than Guerrier, the remaining bullpen arms were above league average in 2008.

One last parting thought: The PE is a useful tool to identify future closers. I think that PE > 40 equals good closer material. From the above list:

Sergio Romo, SFG 51.05
Hong-Chih Kuo, LAD 48.76
Scott Eyre, PHI 43.89 and
Matt Thorton, CHW 41.92

show closer potential.

Fearless prognostications

'Tis the time of year for that, so here is what my crystal ball says:

Playoff teams:

AL EAST: Red Sox 90-72
AL CENTRAL: Twins 89-73
AL WEST: Angels 91-71
AL WILD CARD: Seattle 88-72
DIVISION CHAMPRIONS: Seattle over Boston in 5, Twins over Angels in 4
AL CHAMPION: Twins over Seattle in 7
NL EAST: Mets 91-71
NL CENTRAL: Brewers 85-77
NL WEST: Padres 88-75
NL WILD CARD: Diamondbacks 86-77
DIVISION CHAMPRIONS: Mets over Diamondbacks in 4, Padres over Brewers in 5
NL CHAMPION: Mets over Padres in 7
WS CHAMPION: Twins over Mets in 6 with Liriano beating Santana in both his starts


Twins' team & player specific:

• There will be 4 players with more than 20 HR (Monreau - more than 30, Young, Kubel, Cuddyer). There will be an additional 4 players with more than 10 HR (Harris, Lamb, Monroe, Mauer) with Gomez maybe making the cut, potentially making Everett the only starter with less than 10 HR


• Gomez will break Knoblauch's Twins single season SB record (62, 1997) and challenge Clyde Milan's franchise record (88, Senators 1912)


• Nathan will break Guardado's single season saves record (45, 2002)


• One of the Twin's pitchers will have better record than Santana


• Another one of the Twin's pitchers will have better record and ERA than any of the names discussed in the Santana trade (Hughes, Lester, Kennedy)


• Gomez will score more runs than either Melky Carbera or Ellsbury


• The Outfield will have more than 50 assists (had 32 last year)


• Harris will have fewer errors than Bartlett this year


• D. Young will have more RBI than Torii Hunter

supplement about pitching in 2007

Previously I discussed that the loss of Santana could be not as big as it seems in terms of his 2007 performance. Here is a list of all the 2007 starters with the record of games that the team won or lost when they were the starting pitchers

Slowey 7-4
Baker 13-11
Santana 16-16 *
Bonser 14-16
Garza 7-8 *
Silva 15-18 *
Ortiz 4-6 *
Ponson 2-5 *

The ones with asterisks are no longer with the team. In addition, the Diamondbacks were 16-17 in games that Livan Hernandez started (which would potentially put him under Santana in that list). The Twins were 10-4 in games Liriano started in 2006.

If we project 33 starts for 4 starters and 32 starts for the fifth, assuming that the team will perform similarly as last year, we'd have

Liriano 22-10
Slowey 21-12
Baker 18-15
Bonser 16-17
Hernandez 16-17

and total for the team 93-69. A bit of scrutiny about these assumptions and further refinement

• Liriano most likely would not be in his 2006 form, so let's give him 75% of 2006


• Hernandez is going from the NL to the AL, so let's give him 75% of 2007


• Bonser, Baker have improved, so let's give them 115% of 2007

The refined results:

Slowey 21-12
Baker 21-12
Bonser 18-15
Liriano 17-15
Hernandez 12-21

resulting to a team record of 89-73 (which is identical to that of the calculation based on close games lost last year, a few posts earlier)


Interested edit:

The ESPN projections have the Twins with a record of 86-76 and project Bonser at only 8 wins. The Baseball think factory's Zips projection (you need to do some work to find Livan Hernandez's numbers), has the Twins with 92 wins...

Updated lineups after the Santana trade

Lineup:

Carlos Gomez CF
Joe Mauer C
Michael Cuddyer RF
Justin Morneau 1B
Delmon Young LF
Jason Kubel DH
Mike Lamb 3B
Brendan Harris 2B
Adam Everett SS

Mike Redmond (Bench)
Nick Punto (Bench)
Craig Monroe (Bench)
Two positions (Jason Pridie/Matt Macri/Brian Buscher/Alexi Casilla/Tommy Watkins/Alejandro Machado) (Bench)

Pitching staff:


Francisco Liriano (SP)
Scott Baker (SP)
Boof Bonser (SP)
Kevin Slowey (SP)
Mike Humber/Dan Perkins/Nick Blackburn/Brian Duensing/Anthony Swarzak/Kevin Mulvey

Joe Nathan (CL)
Pat Neshek (RP)
Jesse Crain (RP)
Matt Guerrier (RP)
Dennys Reyes (RP)
Juan Rincon (RP)

Potentially a free agent centerfielder could be signed moving Gomez to the bench, however other than Lofton, there are no centerfielders that would potentially produce as well as Gomez or match his defence. This trade gives the Twins a very good defensive outfield as all 3 potential starters have great arms and Gomez has excellent range. A potential victim of the numbers might be Craig Monroe, depending on his spring training production. Also, there is a surplus of starting pitching at the AAA/AAAA level, which might indicate that the Twins might be interested in pulling another trade.

Tejada to Houston, would Santana follow?

The Astros' trade would Baltimore for Tejada, introduces holes in their starting rotation, which would be sufficiently filled by Johan Santana. What could Houston give in return? They have 2 centerfielders in Josh Anderson and Hunter Pence,(potentially one of them can be had, especially with Mitch Einertson on the wings) a highly-rated 22 y.o AA reliever in Samuel Gervacio who is a strikeout machine with great control, a very good 23 y.o. AA starter in James Barthmaier (rated higher than Troy Patton, who went to the Orioles for Tejada, and Anthony Swarzak in some places) Jonny Ash, a 24 y.o. rangy 2B with great eye and OBP, Felipe Paulino a 23 y.o. starter with great fastball. Their shortstop / 3B prospects are not that great (Cuddyer should probably fill the 3B hole, see previous post), but Pence and Anderson can be the centrpieces of such a deal and their potential is higher than Ellsbury. Would that get it done?

In other news, Jason Tyner was not tendered today, so there are officially 3 openings in the 40 men roster...

more Santana news - what are the Twins asking

From The LA daily news:

A source with knowledge of the Twins' position said Wednesday that the club is asking the Dodgers for a package of three or four players from a pool of six: pitchers Chad Billingsley and Jonathan Broxton, outfielders Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp, top pitching prospect Clayton Kershaw and third-base prospect Andy LaRoche. Whether the Twins would want three or four players depends on whom those players are

and from The NY Daily news:

To get Santana, the Yankees would likely have to package Cabrera with either Phil Hughes or Ian Kennedy in addition to one mid-level prospect. The loss of Garza means Minnesota would likely demand the third player be a pitcher, despite speculation that outfielders Austin Jackson and Jose Tabata could be part of a deal on the Yankees' end.
The Twins are interested in reliever Mark Melancon, a Yankees 2006 pick out of Arizona who missed the entire 2007 season following elbow surgery, although righthander Alan Horne of AA Trenton is also a possibility.

These 2 stories do not seem equivalent. I think that the story out of NY is wishful thinking. Cabrera, Kennedy and a AA pitcher would not be enough (that would have not been enough for the Garza-Bartlett trade with the Rays, btw). The LA story makes more sense: 3-MLB ready players and potentially a fourth prospect. It is hard to find data for similar trades, simply because aces of this caliber are not traded often and usually end up being signed as free agents. This trade that involved the Yankees is probably as close to an equivalent trade:

Roger Clemens (post season 1998) to Toronto for Homer Bush (after he had a 134 OPS+ rookie season), Graeme Lloyd (after a ridiculous season with 1.79 ERA, 0.85 WHIP and 264 ERA+), and David Wells (after his 18-4 season).

To translate that with today's Yankee's team, the equivalent would be something like


Cano + Chamberlain + Wang

for the other suitors:

Boston:
Ellsbury + Beckett + Okajima

Mets:
Milledge+ Perez + Heillman ++ (hard to find equivalence there)

Angels:
Lackey+ Shields + Kotchman

Dodgers:
Kent + Penny + Broxton

Given the Twins are not looking for the respective aces of the teams, plus their needs are different so a possible substitution of 2 prospects for the team's ace might suffice. This substitution plus some changes to reflect the needs and status of both teams including the players mentioned as untouchables, make the following fair trade returns:

Yankees:
Betemit (3B), Cabrera (CF), Hughes (SP), Shelley Duncan (DH/minors)

Boston:
Youkilis+ Buchholz or Buchholz (SP), Ellsbury (CF), Jed Lowrie (3B/SS)

Mets:
Reyes (SS) + Heilman (RP/SP)+ Milledge (CF) for Santana + Bonser/Rincon

Angels:

Brandon Wood (3b) or Figgins (3b) + Jered Weaver (SP) + Reggie Willits (CF)

Dodgers:

Kemp (CF)+ LaRoche (3b) + Broxton (RP) + Kershaw (SP or minors)

if the Twins get anything less, they would be the losers from some trade. There is a lot written about the downside to signing a 28 year old pitcher who is regarded as the best pitcher in baseball to a 7/8 year for $20-25 mil per year contract. However one of these teams signed a 32 yo outfielder to a six year with $16 mil a year (Angels); another payed about half that for the negotiating rights to a 27 yo pitcher who never threw a pitch in this country (Red Sox); another sighed a 36 yo catcher to a 4 year contract for $13 mill a year and a 37 y.o. closer to 3 years $15mil a year (Yankees)... so to lock up the best pitcher long term is not that risky compared to the above

Starting pitching and a potential Santana trade

Here is a look at some of the stats in the major and minor league level for the remaining Twins starters and the best young starters in potential trading partners:

Twins:

Scott Baker, 25, RHP

2007 AL 143.7 IP 29 BB 102 K 4.26 ERA 1.33 WHIP
2007 AAA 42.2 IP 4 BB 41 K 3.16 ERA 0.89 WHIP

Glen Perkins, 24, LHP

2007 AL 28.7IP 12 BB 29 K 3.14 ERA 1.22 WHIP
2006 AA 117 IP 45 BB 131 K 3.92 ERA 1.32 WHIP

Kevin Slowley, 23, RHP

2007 AL 66.7 IP 11 BB 47 K 4.73 ERA 1.39 WHIP
2007 AAA 133.2 IP 18 BB 107 K 1.89 ERA 0.96 WHIP

Fransisco Liriano 23, LHP

2005 AAA 91 IP, 24 BB, 112 K 1.78 ERA 0.88 WHIP
2006 AL 121 IP, 32 BB, 144 K 2.16 ERA 1.00 WHIP

Nick Blackburn 25, RHP

2007 AAA 110.2 IP 12 BB 57 K 2.11 ERA 0.98 WHIP


Boof Bonser, 25, RHP

2007 AL 173 IP, 65 BB, 136 K, 5.10 ERA, 1.53 WHIP
2006 AL 100.3 IP, 24 BB, 84 K, 4.22 ERA, 1.28 WHIP
2005 AAA 160.1 IP, 57 BB, 168 K, 3.99 ERA, 1.31 WHIP
----

Soon to be gone:

Matt Garza 23, RHP

2007 AL 83 IP, 32 BB, 67 K, 3.69 ERA, 1.54 WHIP
2007 AAA 92 IP, 31 BB, 95 K, 3.62 ERA, 1.35 WHIP

------

Mets

John Maine 26, RHP
2007 NL 191 IP, 75 BB, 180 K, 3.91 ERA, 1.27 WHIP
2006 NL 90 IP, 33 BB, 71 K, 3.60 ERA, 1.13 WHIP
2006 AAA 57 IP, 20 BB, 48 K, 3.47 ERA, 1.32 WHIP

Mike Pelfrey 23, RHP

2007 NL 72.7 IP, 39 BB, 45 K, 5.57 ERA 1.71 WHIP
2006 AA 66 IP, 26 BB, 77 K, 2.73 ERA, 1.30 WHIP

Yankees

Joba Chamberlain 21, RHP

2007 AL 24 IP, 6 BB, 34 K, 0.38 ERA, 0.75 WHIP
2007 A-AA-AAA 88.1 IP, 27 BB, 135 K, 1.01 WHIP

Ian Kennedy 22, RHP

2007 A-AA- AAA 146.1 IP, 50 BB, 163 K, 1.91 ERA, 0.96 WHIP

Philip Hughes 21, RHP

2007 AL 72.7 IP, 29 BB, 58 K, 4.46 ERA, 1.28 WHIP
2006 AA 116 IP, 32 BB, 138 K, 2.25 ERA, 0.91 WHIP

Red Sox

Clay Buchholz 22, RHP

2007 AL 22.7 IP, 10 BB, 22 K, 1.59 ERA, 1.06 WHIP
2007 AA-AAA 125.1 IP, 35 BB, 171 K, 2.44 ERA, 0.97 WHIP

John Lester 23, LHP
2007 AL 63 IP, 31 BB, 50 K, 4.57 ERA, 1.46 WHIP
2007 AAA 71.2 IP, 31 BB, 51 K, 3.89 ERA, 1.37 WHIP

Angels

Jered Weaver 24 RHP

2007 AL 161 IP, 45 BB, 115 K, 3.91 ERA, 1.39 WHIP
2006 AL 123 IP, 33 BB, 105 K, 2.56 ERA, 1.03 WHIP
2006 AAA 77 IP, 10 BB, 93 K, 2.10 ERA, 0.95 WHIP

Dodgers

Chad Billingsley 22, RHP

2007 NL 147 IP, 64 BB, 141 K, 3.31 ERA, 1.33 WHIP
2006 NL 90 IP, 58 BB, 59 K, 3.80 ERA, 1.67 WHIP
2006 AAA 71 IP, 32 BB, 78 K, 3.93 ERA, 1.25 WHIP


Conclusion: Frankly, other than the Yankee trio, Buchholz and Weaver, nobody would be any upgrade from what the Twins already have. In addition, the numbers clearly show why Garza was the one to go and why Bonser should go soon. Ideally, the Twins should seek position players and relievers for a Santana trade

Twins needs, wants and recent rumor analysis - part one: Santana

La Velle Neal just indicated that the Twins cleared up 2 positions on their 40 man roster, indicating that there is a potential acceleration of events regarding either a Johan Santana trade or a SoCal-initiated rumored trade that would bring Morneau to the Angels or even a Boston-globe remark regarding a straight up Coco Crisp trade.

In this segment I am commenting on the possible returns on a Santana trade.

The main needs of the Twins before this postseason were: 2B, 3B, DH with emphasis on power and right hand bats. After Hunter's signing with the Angels, there is an additional hole in CF. Also, after Castillo's departure, there is a need for a lead off hitter (and overall speed in the lineup) which apparently cannot be satisfied by Casilla at this point

The major want of the Twins brass is to keep the payroll within the 70-75 million dollar range, before the new stadium opens.

Given these parameters, a Santana trade better happen and a couple of additional trades could go long ways. Let me explain:

Johan is pretty much at the apex of his trading value (if not on its downside). A quick comparison of similar pitchers at his age reveals names such as John Candelaria, Bob Welch, Jack McDowell, Sid Fernandez, Kevin Millwood, Kevin Appier, and Mike Mussina. Good pitchers, sometimes great but certainly no Hall of Famers or pitchers who you should spent 30% of your payroll for. I realize that this is a projection and Johan right now is probably the best pitcher in baseball, but I think that the numbers make the point. If there is the potential for a deal with the Yankees (as rumored) including Robinson Cano as the centerpiece with Melky Cabrera and one of the Yankee pitching prospects added to the deal, it might make a lot of sense for the Twins.

My favorite Santana trade for the Twins would be with the Dodgers for Matt Kemp, Andy LaRoche, Johnathan Broxton and Clayton Kershaw. Kemp and LaRoche will plug the holes in the CF and 3B, bringing strong RH power and Broxton could be the closer (with Kershaw waiting in the wings developing in the minors) as soon as Nathan walks or is traded. Furthermore, the addition of Santana, might pull the Dodgers over the edge in a pretty balanced NL West and crown them Champions.

Still, this picture, even though it addresses the Twins' right hand power and 3B/CF needs, does not address the speed/lead off hitter and DH needs. Monroe hopefully is not the team's answer to the DH position. Hot off the press is a speculation that the Mets might be big players in the Santana sweepstakes, with Reyes as the centerpiece and probably a center fielder (Milledge/Gomez) and a pitcher or two added. This would be a steal for the Twins, since it would provide a great lead of hitter and solve the CF problem. This would probably require Bartlett to move to 2B, a position he played only twice in the minors... Additionally, the needs at 3B, DH and right hand power would need to be addressed.

A possible lineup with the Mets trade would look like this (ages as of 2007 in parenthesis):

SS Reyes (24)
2B Bartlett (27)/Punto (29)
C Mauer (24)
RF Cuddyer (28)
1B Morneau (26)
CF Milledge (22)/Gomez (21)
LF Kubel (25)/Monroe (30)
DH Monroe (30)/Kubel (25)/ G. Jones (26)
3B Buscher (26)/Punto (29)

additional bench: Tyner (30), Redmond (36), Casilla (22)

SP Liriano (23)
SP Slowley (23)
SP Garza (23)
SP Bonser (25)
SP Baker (25)/Blackburn (25)/Perkins (24)
RP Rincon (28)
RP Neshek (26)
RP Reyes (30)/ De Paula (24)
RP Guerrier (28)/ Crain (25)
CL Nathan (32)


Observations:

1. This is a young and fairly inexperienced team with a lot of potential upside and would probably entering its peak when the Twins enter the new ballpark. Would this team be able to contend before that?

2. A lot depends on the development of these players. Cuddyer, Morneau, Punto and Mauer had career years in 2006 then regressed in 2007, would they be able to improve in 2008? Bartlett and Kubel had good years in 2007 (esp. late), would they be able to repeat or improve in 2008?

3. Would Buscher hold the 3b job? (he is another left handed bat, his fielding percentage in the minors was .938; but his OPS was .897 in AAA)

4. Still with a Santana trade, there is a surplus in both starting and relieving pitching, with several others (Duensing, Pino, Manship, Delaney, Tippett) a year or two away, which makes additional trades possible or even necessary.