Twins batters prospect list

Earlier, I attempted to make a list of the top Twins starting and reliever pitching prospects using objective criteria. I knew that trying to attempt a similar endeavor with the batting prospects would be a much more daunting task. And it were. What you'll see here is a compromise, mainly because there are not any reliable fielding measures for minor league position players. So my list is really focuses on the batting part of the equation (like treating everyone as a DH.) That given, and using the same criteria I used for pitchers, here is the formula I used to evaluate batters:



The raw scores were:

Angel Morales, 18, OF, Rk (Elz) 6.05

Jairo Perez, 20, 1B, Rk (DSL) 5.34
Josmil Pinto, 19, C, Rk (GCL) 5.3

Anderson Hidalgo, 19, 2B/3B, Rk (GCL) 4.98
Alexander Soto, 21, C, Rk (GCL) 4.77
Jonathan Waltenbury, 20, 1B, Rk (GCL), 4.19
Aaron Hicks, 18, OF, Rk (GCL) 4.10
Ben Revere, 20, OF, A, 4.09

Evan Bigley, 21, OF, Rk (Elz), 3.69
Michael Gonzales, 20, 1B, Rk (GCL) 3.62
Chris Parmelee, 20, 1B, A, 3.61
Jason Pridie, 24, OF, AAA, 3.58
Juan Sanchez, 21, 3B, Rk (GCL) 3.58
Luke Hughes, 23, 3B, AAA, 3.49
Daniel Valencia, 23, 3B, AA, 3.41
Matthew Macri, 26, 3B, AAA, 3.29
Rene Tosoni, 21, OF, A+, 3.02

Dustin Martin, 24, OF, AA, 2.91
Steven Tolleson, 24, 2B, AA, 2.85
Daniel Berg, 23, OF, AA 2.83
Wilson Ramos, 20, C, A+, 2.79
Jeff Christy, 24, AAA, C, 2.75
Steven Singleton, 22, 2B, A+, 2.62
Brock Peterson, 24, 1B, AAA, 2.59
Brian Dinkelman, 24, 2B, AA, 2.45
Trevor Plouffe, 22, SS, AAA, 2.43
Jose Morales, 25, C, AAA, 2.30
Erik Lis, 24, 1B, AA, 2.23
Whitney Robbins, 23, 1B, A+, 2.04
Drew Butera, 24, C, AA, 2.04

Felix Molina, 25, 2B, AAA, 1.96
Ramon Santana, 22, SS, A, 1.95
Edward Ovalle, 23, OF, A+, 1.84
Michael Harrington, 22, OF, Rk (Elz) 1.83
Rene Leveret, 22, 1B, A, 1.79
Mark Dolenc, 23, OF, A, 1.74
Deibinson Romero, 21, 3B, A, 1.72
Reggie Williams, 19, 2B, Rk (ELZ) 1.71
David Winfree, 22, OF, AA, 1.71
Alejandro Machado, 26, SS, AAA, 1.64
Joe Benson, 20, OF,A, 1.63
Daniel Lehmann, 22, C, A+, 1.60
Oswaldo Arcia, 17, OF, Rk (DSL), 1.60
Toby Gardenhire, 25, 1B, AA, 1.58
Rodolfo Palacios, 23, C, AA, 1.55
Jeff Lanning, 21, C, Rk (ELZ) 1.55
Yangervis Solarte, 20, OF, A+, 1.51
Daniel Santana, 17, SS, Rk (DSL) 1.48
Nicholas Romero, 20, 3B, Rk (ELZ) 1.47
Juan Portes, 22, OF, A+, 1.44
Dominic De La Osa, 22, 2B, Rk (Elz), 1.44
Eli Tintor, 23, OF, A+, 1.44
Daniel Rams, 19, C, Rk (ELZ) 1.43
Johnny Woodard, 23, 1B, A+, 1.12
Yancarlos Ortiz, 23, SS, A+, 1.03
Daniel Ortiz, 18, OF, Rk (GCL) 1.04

Allan de San Miguel, 20, C, A+, 0.94
Starling De Los Santos, 21, SS, A, 0.92
Adan Severino, 21, OF, Rk (ELZ), 0.87
Jonathan Goncalves, 19, OF, Rk (DSL) 0.84
Andrew Schmiesing, 22, OF, A, 0.83
Brandon Roberts, 23, OF, AA, 0.81
Jair Fernandez, 21, C, A, 0.79
Garrett Olson, 23, 3B, A+, 0.79
Eliel Sierra, 22, OF, RK (DSL) 0.66
Andres Diaz, 19, 1B, Rk (GCL), 0.46
Chris Cates, 23, SS, A, 0.44
Lesther Galvan 18, DH, Rk (DSL) 0.44
Jeanfred Brito, 20, 2B, A, 0.43
Ozzie Lewis, 22, OF, A, 0.32
Nathan Hanson, 21, 3B, Rk (Elz) 0.29
Gregory Yersich, 21, C, A, 0.26
Matt Moses, 23, OF, AA, 0.11
James Beresford, 19, SS, Rk (Elz), 0.03
Jean Carlos Mercedes, 20, OF, Rk (DSL) 0.02

Juan Richardson, 21, 3B, A, -0.12
Wilfy Gil, 18, OF, Rk (DSL) -0.14
Herbert Lara, 20, OF, Rk (GCL) -0.26
Ben Petsch, 23, OF, A, -0.31
Hyun-wook Choi, 18, OF, Rk (GCL) -0.34
Manuel Soliman, 18, 3B, Rk (DSL) -0.70
Juan Blanco, 19, OF, Rk (DSL) -0.99
Felix Caro, 18, OF, Rk (DSL) -1.06
Jhonatan Arias, 19, C, Rk (DSL), -1.22
Daniel Rohlfing, 19, C, Rk (GCL) -1.31
Hyeong-rok Choi, 18, 2B, Rk (GCL) -1.36
Jairo Rodriguez, 19, C, Rk (DSL) -1.74
Tyler Ladendorf, 20, SS, Rk (GCL) -1.88
Yorby Martinez, 19, SS, Rk (DSL) -2.27
Jakub Hajtmar, 21, 1B, Rk (GCL) -2.32
Yancarlo Franco, 19, 2B, Rk (DSL) -3.76
Xavier Gonzalez, 19, 2B, Rk (DSL) -4.62

And the tidy list of the Twins' top 30 batting prospects is:

1. Angel Morales


2. Jairo Perez


3. Josmil Pinto


4. Anderson Hidalgo


5. Alexander Soto


6. Jonathan Waltenbury


7. Aaron Hicks


8. Ben Revere


9. Evan Bigley


10. Michael Gonzales


11. Chris Parmelee


12. Jason Pridie


13. Juan Sanchez


14. Luke Hughes


15. Daniel Valencia


16. Matthew Macri


17. Rene Tosoni


18. Dustin Martin


19. Steven Tolleson


20. Daniel Berg


21. Wilson Ramos


22. Jeff Christy


23. Steven Singleton


24. Brock Peterson


25. Brian Dinkelman


26. Trevor Plouffe


27. Jose Morales


28. Erik Lis


29. Whitney Robbins


30. Drew Butera

I have Angel Morales listed higher than most people out there, but he did perform better and is younger than fellow outfielders Revere and Hicks. Jairo Perez is probably a surprise to most people, but most people do not pay much attention to the Dominican Summer League (check the pitching list for more ranting about that fact).

So here you have it. This is the official tenth inning stretch Twins' 2009 batting prospect list.

If you want more information on these any many more of the Twins' prospects, go, run, refresh your browser and buy Seth Stohs' Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook – 2009; the best prospect handbook ever written for Twins' Prospects. Alternatively (not really, just go buy one now), be the first person to answer the current contest question correctly and get one.

A bit of batting research

A frequently made statement is that the Twins failures in the Gardenhire era are partly due to the Twins hitting philosophy of slapping the ball to the opposite field advancing the runners instead of slugging away.

To test this hypothesis I looked at the slugging% of players who were with the Twins in the Gardenhire era and then joined other teams. I am comparing their SLG% their last year with the Twins with those of their first year with another team and 3 years removed from the Twins. If the hypothesis is correct there will be a significant rise in SLG % when left the Twins at least by 3 years. The list is for 150AB/year minimum.

Here is the data:

Batter        SLG@MIN     SLG@MIN+1    SLG@MIN+3

David Ortiz    .500        .592        .604
Jacque Jones   .438        .499        N/A (2008)
Todd Walker    .397        .459        .431
C Guzman       .384        .314        .446 
Dustan Mohr    .399        .437         <150AB but .466 MIN+2
Bobby Kielty   .400        .370        .441
D. Mientk      .363        .407        .440
*AJ Pierzynski .464        .410        .436
Matt Lawton    .415        .399        .421
Brian Buchanan .415        .455         <150AB
Casey Blake    .250        .411        .438  (less than 150AB @MIN)
*Corey Coskie  .495        .398         out of baseball 
Shannon Steward .368       .394         N/A (2009)
Chris Gomez    .354        .346        .439
Javier Valentin .381       .356        .520

From the 15 players listed the only 2 that do not follow this hypothesis are AJ Pierzynski and Corey Coskie (and Corey was out of baseball at the second data point.) How big is the difference? The average player including Coskie & Pierzynksi, raised their slugging percentage by 16 base points they year after they left the Twins and by 65 base points the third year away from the Twins organization and hitting philosophy.

I think that the data certainly supports this hypothesis...

Part 2: looking at the newcomers into the Twins organization

Here is the list for the players who came into the Twins organization from others during this era. I am comparing their SLG% the year before joined the Twins with those of their first 2 years with the Twins. If the hypothesis is correct there will be a significant drop in SLG % when join the Twins at least by 2 years. The list is for 150AB/year minimum. The sample size is smaller because the Twins do not usually bring established players into the organization:

Batter             SLG@MIN-1    SLG@MIN    SLG@MIN2

Shannon Steward    .459        .447        .388
Juan Castro        .378        .386        .308
Luis Castillo      .374        .370        .352 
Rondell White      .489        .365        .321 (<150AB) 
Tony Batista       .455        .388         N/A (not with the Twins)
Jeff Cirillo       .414        .327         N/A (not with the Twins)

Clearly, the data show that if not by the first, by the second year a player from another batting philosophy joins the Twins, his slugging % will suffer measurably.

The data speak... It is time for a change in this philosophy