Rumors, rumors and a break in the inactivity with some theoretical stuff

There have been several rumors these days linking the Twins to reliever free agents Russ Springer and Eric Gagne (unlike the former Twin Greg Gagne he kept the French pronunciation, as in the Minnesota pro-wrestler family; see: Gagne, Verne et. al.) and Joe Crede (and even Dan Uggla, to my delight). I am not really going to propagate those rumors or discuss them until (or if) someone is actually signed, when I will do an analysis of the signing.

Here is today's subject:

What should be the optimal balance of pitching and position players in a 25-man roster for the Twins to improve?

Last season, the Twins went with a 12 man pitching staff (for a while 13). I think that this worked to their disadvantage. Here is my train of thought:

I think that the ideal bullpen should be six. Here is my reasoning:

Assume 1460 innings pitched by the whole Twins' staff (the amount the Twins pitchers pitched in 2008)

If every starter pitches 6.3 innings, 4 will pitch 33 games and the fifth 30. Starters will take care of 1021 innings this way.

The pen would be responsible for 439 innings. Nathan averaged 70 innings in each of his years with the Twins. So the remaining 5 pitchers will be responsible for 369 innings. If the long man gets 90 innings (a reasonable average for mop up pitching) the remaining 4 would be responsible for 279 innings or 69.7 innings per pitcher which is very doable.

What would this require?

a. other than the mop up man, 4 good relievers that can get opposing hitters out no matter whether they are lefties or righties.

and

b. Gardy to quit bringing up pitchers just for one batter. This wastes pitchers.

How doable is it?

Let's assume than Nathan is the closer and Humber the long man.

Opponents OPS:

(the MLB average for relievers is .726)

Bonser RHB: .715 (fine) LHB .866 (not good)
Breslow RHB: .563 (great) LHB .462 (great)
Crain RHB .755 (so so) LHB .719 (fine)
Mijares (small sample warning) RHB .150 (super), LHB .286 (super)
Guerrier RHB .802 (not good) LHB .801 (not good)

Remember, only 4 of these 5 will be in. If Guerrier is out and another good reliever comes in (or if Guerrier resurrects himself) relegating Bonser to the long man position and Humber out, it is very doable.

just for fun,

Springer's numbers: RHB .456 (super) LHB .848 (ouch).
(no, folks, he ain't the one)

The flexibility that an extra position player will provide, esp. with the infield questions is probably better than the luxury of using pitchers just for one batter.

Still don't believe me?

Here are some more data from last season:

Team OPS in the 8th inning: .697, in the 9th .708 and in extra innings .668 (not good; Twins' overall OPS .748, AL overall OPS .756).

Twins' Team OPS for PH .803

I think that this little piece of data makes the case for an extra person on the bench as a PH in late innings stronger.

what do you think?


Remember the off-season contest is still on. Go to the link and give me your thoughts. 2 people did already. If 2 more do, you are all guaranteed to win a copy of one of the best minor league publications for the Twins, the Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook - 2009, by Seth Stohs of SethSpeaks.net a major authority in the Twins' blogosphere, personally autographed by Seth himself.

So just do it, as the Nike marketers once said

Thoughts from today's game

The Twins lost 5-1 in Liriano's return to the majors. I did not watch the game, just followed it on the mobile version of mlb's gameday. Here are some thoughts for the game, the next series and the season:

• Liriano had a rough outing, but he can work the kinks out. He is already pitching better than Buherle and Sabathia and it was very cold. It has been reported that the problem was fastball location.


• Batting is an issue. I hope that in the Detroit series, Mornoe is in every game replacing Span, because he needs at bats and he has a bone to pick with them. Gomez would be very successful bunting against this defense so I hope he is there every day


• The Twins are in a good place. They are a game ahead of Cleveland and 4 ahead of Detroit with an overall .500 record. Last year they were 9-9 against both KC and CHW and this year they are 4-2 and 1-1 against them, respectively


• Redmond, Span & Punto do not belong in the bigs, neither does Rincon. Smith should be on the phone to bring in a bat, and one of Korecky, Mulvey & Swarzak to the bullpen

Twins MVP: Bass

Some flaws in the Twins' 25 men roster

The 25-men roaster is all but set with the only question marks being whether Liriano and/or Baker will make the trip up north or stay in FL for extensive spring training until they build their endurance. Regardless, I think that there are some flaws in the 25 men roster that can be proven painful for the Twins this year:

• There are too many pitchers on the roster, leaving some serious deficiencies in the lineup. Historically, teams had 10 pitchers and 15 batters on their rosters. During the nineties, especially after expansion. The standard became 11 and 14. Now several teams are starting the season with 12 pitchers. This tactic, even though would lead to a fresher pitching staff, does not allow the manager to make appropriate substitutions in situational pinch hitting and running as well as in a day-to-day injury, unless the 4-man bench is set up correctly.


• The Twins have issues with their 4-man bench because Redmond is not very versatile; whomever from Monroe or Kubel does not start at DH can only play corner outfield positions successfully; Punto and Tolbert have pretty much the same skill set (infielders) and they are practically a duplication. A versatile outfielder (such as Pridie) could have been a better choice than one of the Punto/Tolbert duo


• Tolbert could be a potential pinch runner in late innings as could be Punto, but when Monroe is starting, there are no power righty bats of the bench.


• Another issue: Gomez is injury prone. He showed that yesterday. It that game, Gomez had a leg cramp and had to leave the game after the forth inning. With Monroe starting at DH, Gardernhire substituted Punto as the CF replacement, a totally inadequate substitution. A better course of action (albeit not ideal) would have been to move Young to CF and insert Kubel as the LF. This problem would be an issue if Gomez is day-to-day and out for a couple of days. This is why Pridie would have been a better choice... The only other position without good backup plan is 1B (the best case scenario if Morneau gets a minor injury would be to put Cuddyer on 1B with either Kubel or Monroe taking the RF position and again have no OF on the bench...


• The pitching staff itself is too righthanded with potentially (if Liriano is not ready) only 1 lefthander (Reyes) on the staff. This is not an issue against primarily righthanded lineups, like Detroit, but it can hurt in the long run. Neshek has a good record against lefties but he is the set up man. Perkins or Keisler should have probably taken Bass' spot (even though the later is out of options.)


• LH relievers are a rare and expensive fruit but the Twins should probably package a few people for a trade. There is a surplus of righthanders and it maybe time to see what a package such as Punto+Bass+Rincon can bring. Would it be enough for a situational lefty? Possible. Additionally, it would solve the bench Punto/Tolbert duplication issue. In such a scenario, Pridie would take Punto's spot, Humber Bass' and the new lefty Rincon's. I think that the Atlanta Braves might be an ideal trade partner, resulting to someone like Royce Ring or even Will Ohman coming to the Twins (with or without the inclusion of Bass in that trade...)

just some food for thought...

The roster is (almost) set

It looks like the lineup and bench are set...

Lineup:

Gomez CF
Mauer 2B
Cuddyer RF
Morneau 1B
Young LF
Kubel DH
Lamb 3B
Harris 2B
Everett SS

bench:
Redmond C
Monroe DH/OF (will be the starting DH against LHP)
Tolbert IF
Punto IF

Bullpen:

Nathan (CL)
Neshek
Reyes
Crain
Rincon
Guerrier
Bass (Spot starter)

Rotation:
Hernandez
Bonser
Slowey
Blackburn/Baker (Baker's spot but he is likely to start in DL)
Liriano (if not ready Bass might start or alternatively Humber called up)

Ideal 25-men roster v3.15.08

1. Gomez CF
2. Mauer C
3. Cuddyer RF
4. Morneau 1B
5. Young LF
6. Kubel/Monroe DH
7. Lamb 3B
8. Harris 2B
9. Everett SS

bench
10. Monroe
11. Redmond
12. Punto
13. Ruiz
14. Pridie (if 11 pitchers)

Starters
15. Bonser
16. Hernandez
17. Baker
18. Slowey
19. Blackburn

20 Nathan
21 Neshek
22 Rincon
23 Reyes
24 Guerrier
25 Humber

if 12 pitchers Perkins gets Pridie's spot.

Liriano and Crain working out the kinks in the minors till ready

Updated lineups after the Santana trade

Lineup:

Carlos Gomez CF
Joe Mauer C
Michael Cuddyer RF
Justin Morneau 1B
Delmon Young LF
Jason Kubel DH
Mike Lamb 3B
Brendan Harris 2B
Adam Everett SS

Mike Redmond (Bench)
Nick Punto (Bench)
Craig Monroe (Bench)
Two positions (Jason Pridie/Matt Macri/Brian Buscher/Alexi Casilla/Tommy Watkins/Alejandro Machado) (Bench)

Pitching staff:


Francisco Liriano (SP)
Scott Baker (SP)
Boof Bonser (SP)
Kevin Slowey (SP)
Mike Humber/Dan Perkins/Nick Blackburn/Brian Duensing/Anthony Swarzak/Kevin Mulvey

Joe Nathan (CL)
Pat Neshek (RP)
Jesse Crain (RP)
Matt Guerrier (RP)
Dennys Reyes (RP)
Juan Rincon (RP)

Potentially a free agent centerfielder could be signed moving Gomez to the bench, however other than Lofton, there are no centerfielders that would potentially produce as well as Gomez or match his defence. This trade gives the Twins a very good defensive outfield as all 3 potential starters have great arms and Gomez has excellent range. A potential victim of the numbers might be Craig Monroe, depending on his spring training production. Also, there is a surplus of starting pitching at the AAA/AAAA level, which might indicate that the Twins might be interested in pulling another trade.

Updated lineups after the Everett signing

Lineup:

Jason Pridie CF
Delmon Young LF
Joe Mauer C
Michael Cuddyer RF
Justin Morneau 1B
Jason Kubel DH
Brendan Harris 2B
Brian Buscher 3B
Adam Everett SS

Mike Redmond (Bench)
Nick Punto (Bench)
Alexi Casilla (Bench)
Garrett Jones (Bench)
Craig Monroe (Bench)

Pitching staff:

Johan Santana (SP)
Francisco Liriano (SP)
Scott Baker (SP)
Boof Bonser (SP)
Kevin Slowey (SP)

Joe Nathan (CL)
Pat Neshek (RP)
Jesse Crain (RP)
Matt Guerrier (RP)
Dennys Reyes (RP)
Juan Rincon (RP)

Current rosters and projected lineups

Current 40 men roster (the ones most likely not to make the 25-man roster in parenthesis). For the 25 men roster members their roles and batting order in parenthesis:

Pitchers:

Johan Santana (SP)
Francisco Liriano (SP)
Scott Baker (SP)
Boof Bonser (SP)
Kevin Slowey (SP)

Joe Nathan (CL)
Pat Neshek (RP)
Jesse Crain (RP)
Matt Guerrier (RP)
Dennys Reyes (RP)
Juan Rincon (RP)

(Nick Blackburn)
(Carmen Cali)
(Julio DePaula)
(Glen Perkins)


Batters:

Alexi Casilla (SS,1)
Delmon Young (LF, 2)
Joe Mauer (C,3)
Michael Cuddyer (RF, 4)
Justin Morneau (1B, 5)
Jason Kubel (DH,6)
Brendan Harris (2B, 7)
Jason Pridie (CF,8)
Brian Buscher (3B, 9)

Mike Redmond (Bench)
Nick Punto (Bench)
Jason Tyner (Bench)
Garrett Jones (Bench)
Craig Monroe (Bench)

(Jose Morales)
(Chris Basak)
(Darnell McDonald)


A lot of things will change... There are several empty spots on the roster, way too many RPs, and question marks on the top spot and spots 7-9 on the lineup... updates as they come