The Twins seem to hide an ace up their sleeve...

There seem to be some news about to break from Twins' Territory South: 

The Twins have announced that they have send RHP J.T. Chargois through waivers to open a 40-man roster spot.

There are multiple reports that have linked RHP Lance Lynn to the Twins recently:

Jon Heyman
Mark Feinsand
Mark Rose this afternoon at the MLB Network
Christopher Crawford


There is enough smoke, to indicate that the Twins are about to do something. 

Is Lynn the Ace up their sleeve?  We will find out the next couple of days or so...

From the horse's mouth: Why Jake Odorizzi stunk last season but trading for him does not stink for the Twins

The Minnesota Twins announced that they traded their 20th prospect Jermaine Palacios to the Tampa Bay Rays for RHP Jake Odorizzi.  This is the second recent "buy low" acquisition of a pitcher who had a rough 2017, but all signs point to an improvement in 2018.  I have discussed why the acquisition of Anibal Sanchez makes sense for the Twins here; the reasons that Odorizzi will improve are slightly different.

Today (2/18/18) the Front Office show on MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM with Jim Bowden and Jim Duquette had an exclusive interview with Odorizzi.   In that Odorizzi mentioned that hamstring and back issues in 2017, impacted him "quite a bit" last season.  Especially his back bothered him since Spring Training.  As a result he made mechanical adjustments to compensate for the pain, which created "bad habits" cutting his extension point short when finishing pitches and became more of a "side to side" vs "up and down" pitcher.  He was "constantly tinkering" until he went to the DL got enough rest and came back feeling the way he "should feel."  It took him "a bit" to fix his mechanics, but felt good at the end of the season.

And the numbers support this.

After he returned from the DL in August, for the rest of the season, his pitching line looked like this:

3.51 ERA, 48-2/3 IP, 26 BB, 45 K, .186 OBA, average Game Score 53

In September, when his mechanics cleared up his line looked like this:

1.03 ERA, 26-1/3 IP, 9 BB, 30 K,  .116 OBA, average Game Score 64

The Twins will be thrilled if they get the September Odorizzi.  These are Ace numbers, but they will not mind getting the August to September Odorizzi.  And all of that for their number 20 prospect who was behind 3 other shortstops (Nick Gordon, Wander Javier, and Royce Lewis, alphabetically) in the Twins' shortstop prospect depth.   This is a great trade for the Twins and they will reap the benefits in 2018.

Anibal ad portas: 10 reasons why the Anibal Sanchez signing makes sense for the Twins.

The Twins have signed free agent RHP Anibal Sanchez, formerly of the Detroit Tigers to an 1 year contract that is for about $2.5 million with the same amount in incentives.  The deal is not guaranteed so there is no down side for the Twins.  Looking at Sanchez's 2017 in a traditional way (starting in the pen, being demoted, moving into the rotation and finishing with a 3-7 record, 6.41 ERA and 1.59 WHIP,) makes this signing borderline nonsensical, and even more so given the verbal assurances by the new Twins' front office that improving the front of the rotation was a priority.

All that aside, I believe that this is a good signing for the Twins.  Here are 10 reasons why:

1. The Twins will likely still sign a top of the rotation starter.  Sanchez's signing has more to do about what they think the ability of Phil Hughes and Adalberto Mejia is at this point than about filling the top of the Twins rotation
2. Sanchez's signing will give another year for Stephen Gonsalves & Fernando Romero to work on their deficiencies (fastball location, command and movement & endurance, respectively) before they are forced to be parts of the Twins' rotation
3. Even if  Sanchez frizzles during Spring Training or even in April or May and gets released, the Twins are left with what they had before they signed him and the fact that his contract is non-guaranteed makes the financial risk also very small.  In other words:  He is just another arm to compete for a spot.  If he makes the team great, if he does not, the Twins did not gain or lose anything.  In yet another words, this is like Sanchez coming in to fight for a position.  If he gets it good, if he does not, no harm.
4. The Tigers had him start the season in the pen and transitioned him to the rotation later in the year, pretty much messing him up. Starting the season in the rotation, he might be much better. Despite that, his average game score in 17 starts was 46 (50 is MLB average), and this includes an game that he pitched one scoreless inning as a starter and a game with an 8 game score, in which he should had departed earlier
5. He pitched in post season games in 3 different seasons with a 2.79 ERA, 26.7 K%, 18.0 K-BB%, and 1.16 WHIP, bringing something that the Twins could value down the road.
6. His traditional 2017 numbers were an abberration.  His .354 BABIP, 19.3 HR/FB, and 67.1% LOB are due for a huge possitive regression 
7. His 21.6 K% in 2017 was bettered only by Jose Berrios from all the 2017 starters
8. His and 15.6 K-BB% in 2017 would have been better that that of each and every 2017 Twins' starter
9. His 4.16 SIERA in 2017would have been better that that of each and every 2017 Twins' starter
10. He is not a pitch to a contact guy.  His 9.8 SwStr% in 2017 was just higher that Berrios's (9.5)

Slim starting pitcher pickings? Pick your poison: The list of all 31 free agent SP available to the Twins and the rest of the MLB

Here is the list of the starting pitchers (or pitchers who both started are relieved) that are free agents as of today, alphabetically.   I will keep updating the list thought out the spring as they sign:

Brett Anderson
Jake Arrieta
Clay Buchholz
Trevor Cahill
Andrew Cashner Agreed to a 2yr/ $16M contract with the Orioles 2/15
Jesse Chavez
Alex Cobb
Josh Collmenter
Jorge de la Rosa Signed a minor league contract with the Diamondbacks 2/16
R.A. Dickey
Scott Feldman
Jaime Garcia Agreed to an 1yr/$8M contract with the Blue Jays 2/15
Matt Garza
A.J. Griffin
Jeremy Hellickson
Drew Hutchison Signed a minor league contract with the Philies; 2/15
Ubaldo Jimenez
John Lackey
Tim Lincecum
Francisco Liriano
Lance Lynn
Wade Miley Signed a minor league contract with the Brewers; 2/16
Ricky Nolasco
Jake Peavy
Anibal Sanchez Singed a non-guaranteed 1y/$2.5M contract with the Twins 2/16
Hector Santiago Signed a minor league contract with the White Sox; 2/14
Chris Smith
Josh Smith
Chris Tillman Agreed to a 1yr/ $3M contract with the Orioles 2/19
Cesar Valdez
Jason Vargas Signed to a 2yr/ $16M contract with the Mets 2/16
Edinson Volquez Signed a minor league contract with the Rangers 2/16

Et Yu Brute? Darvish signs with the Cubs. Now what do the Twins do?

On a cold and gray Chicago morning, as the snow flied, four days before Valentine's Day Ken Rosenthal, broke the hearts of plenty of Twins' fans by reporting that Yu Darvish signed a 6 year deal with the Cubs.   Darvish was considered by many not only the missing piece in a potential Twins' success story in 2018, but a statement acquisition by the new and improved front office, especially after another top of the rotation Japanese free agent, Shohei Otani, shunned the Twins and the frozen tundra for the California sun earlier this off-season.  A top free agent signing that would had put the Twin Cities on the map of the desirable places to go in the majors...

What are the Twins going to do about it, especially given the fact that Ervin Santana might not be ready until May? 

To me they are four options, listed here in order of what I believe makes sense:

1. Work out a trade with the Tampa Bay Rays for Chris Archer.  A package based on Max Kepler, Nick Gordon, and one of Stephen Gonsalves, Adalberto Mejia, or Zach Littell, should be in discussion.  If necessary, someone like Alex Kirilloff could be added, with a minor leaguer from the Rays' system to balance the trade.  In this case the Twins get a top of the rotation pitcher who will be their opening day pitcher and might be the piece they need to contend for the division and deep into the post-season, which should be their goal at this point. If a trade like this happens, the Twins can sign a free agent outfielder, like Carlos Gomez to replace Kepler's bat and glove, to an one year contract.  This is the best case scenario for the Twins, because unless they acquire someone like Archer, they will not content, which brings us to the second-best scenario:
2. Do nothing and see what Gonsalves, Littell, and Fernando Romero have in the final 2 spots of the rotation, before Santana, and Trevor May are back in May.  The Twins really need to find a top of the rotation pitcher and with Jose Berrios improving with another year under his belt, he might be it.  Trevor May had excellent promise as a starter and might slot in the middle of the rotation ahead of Santana.  Can Romero be that number two that is his potential this season?  The Twins better find out, instead of doing the second worse scenario:
3. Sign third grade, end of the rotation free agents to fill in the blanks.  Jason Vargas (a Terry Ryan, and I suspect of his administration's leftovers, darling,) Jaime Garcia, Edinson Volquez, Chris Tillman, Andrew Cashner, and the former true but mostly tried Twins Ricky Nolasco, and Hector Santiago, as well as every other pitcher you don't want the Twins to sign, belong in this category.  Trading for a mid-rotation starter, albeit with future potential, like Jake Odorizzi while better than the other choices listed here, falls in this category.  The future should be now for the Twins.  If they don't feel that this is the case, they should go with the kids.  Still this is not the worst case scenario; that would be:
4. Signing one of the three "top" free agents left:  Jake Arrieta, Alex Cobb, or Lancy Lynne (in alphabetical order) and especially to a contract more than a year.  None of those pitchers will be an improvement to (let's say) Kyle Gibson's 2017 second half or to what a combination of Gonzalves/Littell/Romero/Dietriech Enns can potentially provide...   Arrieta and Cobb had played in the American League and were mid to end of the rotation types.  Lynne has never played in the AL and has had the luxury of facing pitchers, thus inflated K% and SwStr% numbers.  To add insult to injury, the Twins will have to give up a high draft pick for the privilege to sign any of these mid of the rotation types.  

Unfortunately, I have a hunch  that the Twins' priorities are in reverse order that my preference in this case...

The Twins bet $10 million in the hope that Michal Pineda's demons can be exorcised.

Today the Twins announced that they have signed RHP Michael Pineda to a 2 year $10 million dollars that will pay him $2 million in 2018 (a season likely lost due to Tommy John surgery last July) and $8 million in 2019 with up to an additional $2 million in incentives based on innings pitched.

At first glance and remembering Pineda's age 22 rookie season with the Mariners, which was somewhat akin to Fransisco Liriano's rookie performance with the Twins, I thought that it was money well spent, but looking closer to Pineda's history, I started having my doubts.

Pineda was signed as a 16 year old by the Mariners and started his pro career in the DSL in 2006.  He was cruising through the minors moving fast until after 2008 when he threw 138-1/3 innings in full season A ball.  He had to be shut down most of the next year due to an elbow strain, pitching only 44 innings in high A+.    He moved to AA and AAA in 2010, and made his debut in the majors in 2011 performing admirably enough (3.42 FIP, 24.9% K%, 17% K-BB%, 1.10 WHIP/.258 BABIP) for the Yankees to trade their top prospect catcher Jesus Montero and young pitcher Hector Noesi for the 6-7 tall Pineda.  That's where his troubles, other than the previous elbow issue begun.

He showed up out of shape at 270 lbs to Spring Training and his velocity dropped from his previous season 94-96 to low 90s.  He developed shoulder issues, and was shut down with shoulder tendonitis.  It was discovered that he had a torn labrum (albeit the rotator cuff was fine) that was repaired with lighter arthroscopic surgery on May 1st.  The mellifluous New York press wrote about him: "Pineda arrived in his first Yankees camp 30 pounds overweight. In an effort to create velocity that wasn’t there, Pineda overthrew and blew out the shoulder. Surgery followed".  If that were not enough, during his rehab in Tampa, on August 20, a police officer stopped his SUV that was swerving around at night with its lights off.  His blood alcohol level was close to twice the legal limits.  Pineda got arrested and next February pleaded guilty to DUI, receiving a slap on the hand: was fined $500, received a year of probation, was ordered to attend DUI classes and perform 50 hours of community service.

He started 2013 in the DL and was optioned (the only time that happened to him, which means he still has 2 options remaining) to AAA Scranton, pitching in six games all season.  In 2014 he started the season in the Yankees' rotation, where another incident happened.  In a game against the Red Sox, he was ejected, for having pine tar on his neck, and suspended 10 days.  Apparently it was not the first time he did that in the season or in the game, and was forewarned by the umpired, resulting in having his intelligence openly questioned  by the press.   While pitching a simulated game during his suspention, he strained his teres major muscle, a shoulder rotator muscle on the back side that kept him on the DL until August 13th.

In 2015 he struck out 16 players in a game, before missing a chunk of time since July 30 with  "a strained flexor muscle in his right forearm", the second time in his career he had elbow issues.  In 2016, he showed up in camp in shape, and with his fastball up to 94-95 mph, he has aspirations to be the Yankees ace.  Those aspirations ended in the middle of last season, when he tore his UCL and had Tommy John surgery performed on July 18th.

Michael Pineda might be able to help the Twins towards the end of last season and there is potential for the 2019 season.  He comes with more baggage that one can fit in a FedEx 747,  but he also comes with one of the best sliders in the game, which is a true out pitch.  Other than the fastball and the slider, he has an average change up that he does not like to throw much.  Based on set up men going for $8 million a season, the Twins investment might be a good one, because even if he cannot make it to the rotation, he could be a force out of the pen.  However, the Twins know by their very own aforementioned Liriano, what a reconstructed UCL can do to one's slider and it is questionable that the time frame of healing will be enough for the slider to return during his Twins' tenure. And this assumes that all that bad luck and the demons are not around Pineda the next couple seasons.

It is more of a bet than an investment, about the equivalent to that with Byung-Ho Park.  Time will tell if this bet will pay for the Twins, but the cards are stuck against them somewhat.

 

Twins off-season thoughts: Another trade and not only for starting pitching

So far, I have proposed that the Twins sign three free agent relievers, and trade for front line pitching with the Mets.  Unfortunately Brandon Morrow and Yusmeiro Petit have already signed elsewhere, and close for what I thought they will sign.  There is still room for improvement and the Twins go for it in Pittsburgh.

The Twins get:

RHSP Gerrit Cole (2 years of service left, second arbitration season),  OF Andrew McCutchen ( 1 yr $14.5M left), and closer Felipe Rivero (3 years of arbitration left.)

The Pirates get:

OF Max Kepler, OF Alex Kirilloff, LHSP Stephen Gonsalves, RHRP Nick Burdi, RHSP Kohl Stewart.

In other words, the Twins solidify their rotation, get a young closer, and a premiere RH OF bat and glove that will be a huge improvement over Kepler.   They can extend a qualifying offer to McCutchen after the season.

The Pirates save about $20-22 million dollars for 2018, a season they will not compete, get a whole bunch of prospects, including their home grown former first round pick Kirilloff, three arms with some potential that their history with pitchers might help, and an MLB-ready OF.

I think that this is a win-win trade.

Twins off-season thoughts: The first of the 2 trades for starting pitching: Match made in heaven.

My premise this off-season is for the Twins to be competitive deep in the 2018 post-season, they need 2 starters better than Berrios, and at least 3 relievers better than what they have now.   A few days ago, I discussed three free agents who can play a vital role in the Twins' 2018 pen.  Unfortunately, unless someone believes that the Shohei Otani lottery ticket will land on the Twins' lap (it still could, btw; I just don't like living on a prayer,) there are no suitable free agent pitchers who fit this bill, as far as starters go.

So the Twins have to trade for two top of the rotation pitchers.   As far as who their first trade partner to accomplish this would be, I was crystal clear.  As far as who their target should be, I was not, until I had an epiphany.   There is a great synergy for the New York Mets to be the Twins' trading partner again.  The Twins traded both Frank Viola and Johan Santana to the Mets, in trades that met both teams' needs needs (albeit the Gardenhire Twins were too quick to give up on the superstar centerfielder they got in return).

Two of the biggest New York Mets' needs are a veteran starting pitcher who will be there to eat innings and be an example to their young Five Aces, a second baseman, and a power bat.  This clearly spells Ervin Santana, and Brian Dozier, ladies and gentlemen.  As far as who the Twins should be after, I have been really focusing on 29 year old Jacob DeGrom who has been their most consistent pitcher, has 2 years of club control through arbitration and about to get pretty expensive.  Or the 25 year old lefty, Steve Matz, who did have a health scare, but his reconstructed UCL was fine after all, and might have the highest potential of them all.

But then it hit me.  There is a guy who would be as great a fit to Minnesota as Ragnar, and probably more than this guy:  The Scandinavian god of thunder, Thor, himself.  Indeed,  the Twins should go after 25 year old RHSP Noah Syndergaard.  Probably fell in their depth charts behind DeGrom, and with Matz, Steven Wheeler, Robert Gsellman, and even Matt Harvey ready to step in his shoes, Thor can rule in the frozen tundra in 2018.  Just imagine the sponsorship opportunities for the guy.

What will it take for the Twins to get Syndergaard?  Assuming that he is fully recovered from his lat muscle issue,  Santana and Dozier might not be enough.  I think that adding Nick Gordon (a top 20 MLB prospect according to Baseball America), and Tyler Duffey and/or Jake Reed will help sweeten the deal.  The Mets do need help in their pen and the Twins have plenty.

So here is the deal:

Noah Syndergaard to the Twins for Ervin Santana,  Brian Dozier, Nick Gordon, and Tyler Duffey and/or Jake Reed.

Mind you, this is not a trade between a team that wants to shed payroll and a competitive team. This is a treat between 2 competitive teams that are comfortable trading and rearranging assets.  Not many of these kind of trades happen.  The last one the Twins did, also involved the Mets, who traded Ricky Reed for Matt Lawton.  This is not a Santana or a Viola deal that was centered on prospects.

And the Twins have their opening day 2018 starter.  And this is a match made in a Scandinavian heaven. 

And the Mets and the Twins meet in the 2018 World Series (Hint: Twins in 7.)

Twins off-season thoughts: Three free agents for the pen

It is not a secret that the Twins reached the 2017 post-season despite their awful pitching situation.  Even though, I believe that there are not any suitable starting pitchers who are free agents that can help the Twins in 2018, there are three relievers that the Twins need to take a close look to supplement their staff.   To fill a rotation competitive long in the post-season, the Twins will need at least 2 pitchers better than Berrios, and other than Darvish and Otani who are unapproachable for the Twins, nobody really fits the list.  They are better off trading for those, and will discuss that matter in another post.

As far as the pen goes, the Twins glaring needs are for a dominant closer, a dominant opposite hand late inning reliever and a dominant 2-3 inning reliever.  Dillon Gee could play that  later role, but he does not miss many bats, which has been the issue with the whole of the Twins' pen last season.  It ranked 23rd in FIP, 29% in K%, tied for 20th in K-BB%, and 19th with a -9.62 RE24, and 29th in SwStr%.   Here are the players the Twins should have a look at:

Closer:  RHP Brandon Morrow (29.4 K%, 24.1 K-BB%, 15.9 SwStr%, 1.55 FIP, 11.90 RE24)   Morrow dominated as a set up man for a team that made it to the World Series.  Finally healthy, he featured a 98 mph fastball, 89 mph slider, supplemented by a 92 mph cutter.  These are closer stuff.  The 33 year old will be popular this off-season and MLB Trade Rumors projects that he will go to the Rockies with a 3 year, $24 million contract.  I think that the Twins could prevail offering him 2 years at $18 and a third optional year at $11 with a $2 million buy out, for a total of $20 million guaranteed.

Opposite hand late reliever:  LHP Boone Logan (30.8 K%, 20.9 K-BB%, 18.5 SwStr%, 3.16 FIP, 11.31 RE24).  The Indians bought out his $7M option for $1M, making him a free agent.  Logan, who is also 33,  had issues with a Lat muscle strain, so he posses somewhat of a risk.  The Twins can reel him him in with a 1 yr $4M contract, with $2 more millions in incentives and a vesting option for 2017 for $8 million.   So the risk will be 1 year and $4M and the upside a $2 yr, 14 million, which is fair if Logan continues his performance.

Quality workhorse:  RHP Yusmeiro Petit  (28.5K%, 23.4 K-BB%, 10.6 SwStr%, 2.85 FIP, 19.34 RE24).  The 32 year old journeyman finally made the transition to the pen where he shined with the Angels last season pitching 91-1/3 innings of excellent ball.  Petit never walks anyone but this season he started missing bats, making it an awesome combination for someone who can pitch 3-4 shutdown innings at a time.  Petit never made much money in his professional career, and a 2 yr / $10 million,  or 3 year / $12 million deal will appropriate to bring him to Minnesota.

This way the Twins will have a 2018 pen anchored by Morrow and Logan, supplemented by Petit and four of their young leftovers with high potential, who will have the opportunity, unlike in 2017, to pitch and develop in less stressful situations with some real mentors.

Twins off-season thoughts: Analyzing the 40 man roster

The 2018 MLB off-season officially started late last night when the Houston Astros beat the Los Angeles Dodger in the game 7 of the 2017 World Series.   The 2018 off-season will be very interesting for the surprising good Minnesota Twins who made the postseason in 2017, but, alas, their participation in baseball lore lasted only one game.   Several things need to happen for the Twins to improve and be competitive in 2018 well into the post season.  We will be looking at these things in segments like this of "off-season thoughts".  In addition, like past years there will a weekly (or more often) off-season transactions and rumors segment, as those starting to build.

A good starting point is to look at the Twins 40-man roster and try to analyze what it could look like as a baseline, before the Rule 5 decisions and trade decision will need to be made.    Here is the Twins roster after the end of the season, including all 60-day DL players, as well as the free agents (uniform numbers included as well).  There are as a total 45 players:

Pitchers (28) :

9  Matt Belisle    
17 Jose Berrios    
62  Buddy Boshers    
67  Alan Busenitz    
60  J.T. Chargois
40 Bartolo Colon    
27 John Curtiss    
56 Tyler Duffey    
47 Dietrich Enns    
35 Dillon Gee    
44 Kyle Gibson
39 Trevor Hildenberger    
45 Phil Hughes
76 Felix Jorge
65 Trevor May
49 Adalberto Mejia 
58 Gabriel Moya
61 Ryan O'Rourke
15 Glen Perkins    
57 Ryan Pressly    
55 Taylor Rogers    
77 Fernando Romero    
64 Randy Rosario    
54 Ervin Santana 
53 Hector Santiago 
50 Aaron Slegers 
59 Michael Tonkin 
66 Nik Turley

Position players (17) :

16 Ehire Adrianza  
25 Byron Buxton    
21 Jason Castro 
2 Brian Dozier
5 Eduardo Escobar 
43 Mitch Garver
38 Chris Gimenez
23 Niko Goodrum 
8 Zack Granite
36 Robbie Grossman 
26 Max Kepler
7 Joe Mauer
73 Daniel Palka
11 Jorge Polanco
20 Eddie Rosario 
22 Miguel Sano
19 Kennys Vargas

The distribution between position players and pitchers clearly shows the issues with the team in 2017.  The names of the pitchers will need to be trimmed.

Matt Belisle, Bartolo Colon, Dillon Gee, Glen Perkins, Hector Santiago  are all free agents.  Perkins will not return Belisle Colon and Santiago should not.  This will open 4 spots on the roster.  Dillon Gee is an interesting player:  He performed exceptionally as a reliever producing an 1.35 ERA (2.86 FIP) in total, which dropped to 1.01 (2.56 FIP) the first time through an order.  In that split (26-2/3 IP) he allowed 22 hits and 5 walks, (1.01 WHIP & .286 BABIP) and struck out 20 (19.1 K%, 14.3 K-BB%).   If I were the Twins, I would try to re-sign Gee who will be 32 next season to a 2-year contract and have him in the long reliever role, a role he excelled in 2017.  He was not part of the problem last season. This drops down the roster to 41.

Buddy Boshers, Alan Busenitz, J.T. Chargois, John Curtiss,  Dietrich Enns, Trevor Hildenberger, Felix Jorge, Gabriel Moya, Ryan O'Rourke,  Fernando Romero, Randy Rosario, Aaron Slegers, Michael Tonkin, Nik Turley will be competing for 40-man space with the likes of Zack Littell, Stephen Gonsalvez, Lewis Thorpe, Kohl Stewart, Ryan Eades, Nick Burdi, Jake Reed, Luke Bard, Mason Melotakis, etc.   For the names in this list, it would be all about who will be able to help the Twins more in 2018.   I think that Buddy Boshers, Ryan O'Rourke, Randy Rosario, Aaron Slegers, Michael Tonkin and Nik Turley, will be in the losing part of the equation, with Alan Busenitz and John Curtiss, and potentially Ryan Pressly on the bubble, but making it.  This will open 6 more spaces, dropping down the roster to 35, and potentially down to 32; but it is too early and likely unnecessary to do so in the first round.

As far as position players go, there is no much leeway;  Niko Goodrum, and Daniel Palka as fairly certain cuts; Kennys Vargas who is out of options is on the bubble, but will likely make it through the first round of cuts.  This will drop 12 spots of the roster, trimming it down to 33, allowing enough room to protect players as well as sign free agents before potential trades.