Another comeback for the ages!

highlighted by a grand slam to complete hitting for the cycle by Kubel. It seems that the Twins are going to spoil us with comebacks this season.

Spring training week 1 summary.

The first week of spring training passed and found the Twins within 2 runs of a perfect record. I will be giving weekly recaps of the cumulative performance of players in Spring training, focusing on the roster battles.

Here is the summary of week one:

Position Players:

Outfield Starter Battle:

Young .857/.857/1.000, 1 SB (7 AB)
Gomez .222/.300/.556, 1 HR, 1 BB (9 AB)
Cuddyer .167/.167/.167 (7 AB)
Span .111/.200/.111 1 BB (9 AB)

Spot on the Bench vs Rochester Battle:

Buscher .600/.600/1.100, 1 HR (10 AB)
Hughes .333/.333/.333 (6 AB)
Machado .200/.200/.200 1 SB (5 AB)
Tolbert .167/.231/.167 1 BB (12 AB)
Macri .000/.200/.000 1 BB (4 AB)
Plouffe .000/.000/.000 (5 AB)

Battle for Rochester vs. New Britain:

Valencia .800/.800/.800 (5 AB)
Martin .600/ .667 /.889 (5 AB)
Peterson .200/.429/.800 1 HR (GS) 5 AB

Other notable starter stats:

Kubel .500/.714/1.500/.500 1 HR, 3 BB (5 AB)
Morneau .429/.500/.714/ 1 BB (7 AB)


Position Player of week 1:

Delmon Young



Honorable mention: Brian Buscher, Jason Kubel, Danny Valencia, Dustin Martin


Pitchers:

Best Starter Performance:

Slowey ERA 0.00, WHIP 0.00, 0 BB, 1 K 2 IP
Blackburn ERA 0.00, WHIP 0.00, 0 BB, 0 K, 2 IP
Perkins ERA 0.00, WHIP 1.00, 0 BB, 3 K, 5 IP

Battle for set up man:

Crain 0.00 ERA, WHIP 0.00, 0 BB, 0 K, 2 IP
Ayala 0.00 ERA, WHIP 0.50, 0 BB, 0 K, 2 IP
Breslow 4.50 ERA, WHIP 1.00, 0 BB, 2 K, 2 IP
Guerrier 4.50 ERA, WHIP 1.50, 2 BB, 0 K, 2 IP

On the bubble; battle for the last 1-2 spots:

Dickey 0.00 ERA, WHIP 1.00, 1 BB, 3 K, 2 IP
Henn 0.00 ERA, WHIP 1.50, 1 BB, 0 K, 2 IP
Mijares 0.00 ERA, WHIP 1.50, 2 BB, 3 K, 2 IP
Jones 3.00 ERA, WHIP 2.00, 2 BB, 3 K, 3 IP
Goslin 0.00 ERA, WHIP 2.50, 2 BB, 1 K, 2 IP
Humber 18.00, WHIP 2.50, 0 BB, 0 K, 2 IP

pitcher of week 1, spring training:

Kevin Slowey





honorable mention: Nick Blackburn, Jesse Crain, Glen Perkins, R.A. Dickey

Details on Kubel's contract

Joe Christensen posted the details of Kubel's new contract with the Twins: 2009: $2.75 million, 2010: $4.25 million and an option for 2011 for $5.00 million.

Even in the current climate, this contract is very good for the Twins. Kubel just finished his age 26 season and produced at the rate of .272/.335/.471. His .199 isoP had him tied for the team lead with Justin Morneau. Another year removed from his leg injury and entering his prime years, Kubel is almost certainly destined to have a breakout season within the span of the contract. Not to be forgoten than at age 22, before he got promoted to Rochester, he led the Rock Cats with .377/.452/.667. That .290 isoP is the second highest that any current Twin had in pro ball, behind Morneau's .309 at his age 23 season in Rochester when he batted .306/.375/.615. How big was Kubel's New Britain season? The second best effort from a Twins batter in the minor leagues was the age 23 season of David Ortiz in Salt Lake City in the Pacific Coast League (a major hitter's league) when David had a .315/.413/.590 slash line.

Let's compare Kubel's age 26 season last year with several Twins LH power hitter age 26 seasons:

Kubel: .272/.335/.471
Morneau: .271/.343/.492
D. Ortiz: .272/.339/.500
Kent Hrbek: .267/.353/.478

it seems that Kubel is in good company


Remember the off-season contest is still on. Go to the link and give me your thoughts. 2 people did already. If 2 more do, you are all guaranteed to win a copy of one of the best minor league publications for the Twins, the Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook - 2009, by Seth Stohs of SethSpeaks.net a major authority in the Twins' blogosphere, personally autographed by Seth himself.

Kubel

have a look at the following groups of lefty Twins’ batters (same hitting philosophy) and their numbers when they were 25 years old:

Group 1:
batter 1: ba .234, OBP .324 SLG .475 303 AB 18 HR 48 RBI
batter 2: ba .278, OBP .351 SLG .444 593 AB 21 HR 93 RBI
batter 3: ba .285, OBP .319 SLG .463 523 AB 19 HR 76 RBI

Group 2:
batter 4: ba .248, OBP .366 SLG .415 460 AB 14 HR 60 RBI
batter 5: ba .266, OBP .341 SLG .373 263 AB 3 HR 23 RBI

Kubel’s last year

BA .273, OBP .335, SLG .450, 418 AB 13 HR 65 RBI

Morneau, on the other hand is way ahead of both groups, his numbers when he was 25:

BA .321 OBP .375 SLG .559 592 AB 37 HR 130 RBI

Kubel is in-between the 2 groups as he clearly is ahead of the second group. Which way he will end up is still early to determine, but worthwhile to find out. That’s why people are upset when he doesn’t get enough playing time…

Any guesses who the players above are? The answer is in the comments

Notes & thoughts from today - early edition

4-5 loss, today; 1-3 for the season, 3rd place overall

Kubel hit the 1st HR of the season (upper decker over the baggie on a high fastball by Spier.) Gomez got the hang of laying down a band on turf. That could be a great weapon this year for him. Harris made another couple of great plays this game. I don't think that there is a loss on D when he is in. Good to see Harris, Everett and Gomez with back to back to back singles. First IBB of the season (Mauer, 9th)

"Strained right bisep" without being hit or overworked with weights, sounds like an elbow or shoulder issue (unfortunately). Gardenhire kept the first 2 pitchers in the game too long. They both showed signs of ineffectiveness at least 3 batters before they were done.

Next series against the AL Central leaders, Royals, at home. Would be interested to see how Baker is. With today's long effort by Bass and 2 days in a row pitching by Guerrier, Baker better go at least 6.

Cleveland lost to Chicago & Detroit lost to the Royals; Cabrera is day to day with a leg strain

Matt Garza's line from yesterday (@BAL): 5.1 IP, 6H, 5ER, 2HR, 2BB, 3K

MLB.tv is just wonderful

Twins MVP: Mauer

Twins needs, wants and recent rumor analysis - part one: Santana

La Velle Neal just indicated that the Twins cleared up 2 positions on their 40 man roster, indicating that there is a potential acceleration of events regarding either a Johan Santana trade or a SoCal-initiated rumored trade that would bring Morneau to the Angels or even a Boston-globe remark regarding a straight up Coco Crisp trade.

In this segment I am commenting on the possible returns on a Santana trade.

The main needs of the Twins before this postseason were: 2B, 3B, DH with emphasis on power and right hand bats. After Hunter's signing with the Angels, there is an additional hole in CF. Also, after Castillo's departure, there is a need for a lead off hitter (and overall speed in the lineup) which apparently cannot be satisfied by Casilla at this point

The major want of the Twins brass is to keep the payroll within the 70-75 million dollar range, before the new stadium opens.

Given these parameters, a Santana trade better happen and a couple of additional trades could go long ways. Let me explain:

Johan is pretty much at the apex of his trading value (if not on its downside). A quick comparison of similar pitchers at his age reveals names such as John Candelaria, Bob Welch, Jack McDowell, Sid Fernandez, Kevin Millwood, Kevin Appier, and Mike Mussina. Good pitchers, sometimes great but certainly no Hall of Famers or pitchers who you should spent 30% of your payroll for. I realize that this is a projection and Johan right now is probably the best pitcher in baseball, but I think that the numbers make the point. If there is the potential for a deal with the Yankees (as rumored) including Robinson Cano as the centerpiece with Melky Cabrera and one of the Yankee pitching prospects added to the deal, it might make a lot of sense for the Twins.

My favorite Santana trade for the Twins would be with the Dodgers for Matt Kemp, Andy LaRoche, Johnathan Broxton and Clayton Kershaw. Kemp and LaRoche will plug the holes in the CF and 3B, bringing strong RH power and Broxton could be the closer (with Kershaw waiting in the wings developing in the minors) as soon as Nathan walks or is traded. Furthermore, the addition of Santana, might pull the Dodgers over the edge in a pretty balanced NL West and crown them Champions.

Still, this picture, even though it addresses the Twins' right hand power and 3B/CF needs, does not address the speed/lead off hitter and DH needs. Monroe hopefully is not the team's answer to the DH position. Hot off the press is a speculation that the Mets might be big players in the Santana sweepstakes, with Reyes as the centerpiece and probably a center fielder (Milledge/Gomez) and a pitcher or two added. This would be a steal for the Twins, since it would provide a great lead of hitter and solve the CF problem. This would probably require Bartlett to move to 2B, a position he played only twice in the minors... Additionally, the needs at 3B, DH and right hand power would need to be addressed.

A possible lineup with the Mets trade would look like this (ages as of 2007 in parenthesis):

SS Reyes (24)
2B Bartlett (27)/Punto (29)
C Mauer (24)
RF Cuddyer (28)
1B Morneau (26)
CF Milledge (22)/Gomez (21)
LF Kubel (25)/Monroe (30)
DH Monroe (30)/Kubel (25)/ G. Jones (26)
3B Buscher (26)/Punto (29)

additional bench: Tyner (30), Redmond (36), Casilla (22)

SP Liriano (23)
SP Slowley (23)
SP Garza (23)
SP Bonser (25)
SP Baker (25)/Blackburn (25)/Perkins (24)
RP Rincon (28)
RP Neshek (26)
RP Reyes (30)/ De Paula (24)
RP Guerrier (28)/ Crain (25)
CL Nathan (32)


Observations:

1. This is a young and fairly inexperienced team with a lot of potential upside and would probably entering its peak when the Twins enter the new ballpark. Would this team be able to contend before that?

2. A lot depends on the development of these players. Cuddyer, Morneau, Punto and Mauer had career years in 2006 then regressed in 2007, would they be able to improve in 2008? Bartlett and Kubel had good years in 2007 (esp. late), would they be able to repeat or improve in 2008?

3. Would Buscher hold the 3b job? (he is another left handed bat, his fielding percentage in the minors was .938; but his OPS was .897 in AAA)

4. Still with a Santana trade, there is a surplus in both starting and relieving pitching, with several others (Duensing, Pino, Manship, Delaney, Tippett) a year or two away, which makes additional trades possible or even necessary.