Spring Training Redux: How will the Twins do in 2014? Here is my prediction.

Every year I wait to watch the Twins in Spring Training before I form an opinion about how they will do this coming season.   And I like to watch them in person to do this, just trying to see little signs here and little clues there.    A bit before I did that, my arm was twisted to give a number of wins and position of finishing for the Twins this season, and I predicted that the Twins will go 81-81 to finish third in AL Central.  It was a quick prediction based on the improvement of the pitching staff this off-season.  Even Mike Pelfrey, recently said (reference to be added soon) that the Twins will finish at least .500 next season.

This might be good on paper, but I really got a bad feeling last week.  And it does not have to do with the front office completely ignoring the offensive and position player side of the ball this off-season (the only moves practically being substituting Kurt Suzuki for Ryan Doumit and Jason Kubel for Justin Morneau.)  It does not even have to do with the recent (and much celebrated and discussed) comments of acting GM Rob Antony, suggesting that nobody who is competing for a spot is actually doing anything to win a job.   On paper, and being optimistic, I thought that Willingham and Plouffe will rebound, Hicks will reach his potential, Arcia will be the power hitter we all expect to be, Pinto will solidify the catcher position, Mauer will improve with his knees not having the catching stress and that Escobar will have a break-through season as a shortstop akin to Brian Dozier's 2013 who would not regress.   It might still as well happen.  And then the Twins will win at least 81 games.  And I hope it happens.

But I got a really bad feeling last week.   And it was there precipitated and displayed in front of the eyes of the 100 of us who remained late Tuesday night to see the last pitch at that Twins' night game hosting the Rays.  And it had not much to do with Vance Worley's right arm and the batting practice projectiles he was throwing, but by the lackadaisical play and non-effort by the position players the whole spring.  And not only the ones who are fighting for a job per Rob Antony.  And not only at that game, but this was the epitome.

On the flights to Fort Myers and back I have been reading Cool Of The Evening: The 1965 Minnesota Twins by Jim Theilman (an excellent book and highly recommended, btw.)  Thielman mentions that one of the turning points of the 1965 magical Twins' season came at the middle of Spring Training in Orlando's Tinker Field:  At the middle of a game, because of lack of effort, Sam Mele, the Twins' manager, took Zoilo Versalles (the eventual 1965 MVP) out of the lineup, benched him for a while and fined him $300, an amount very high for the time.  This gave the message that it is expected for even the best players to give 100% even during Spring Training and set the tone for the rest of the season.

How many times the last 3 seasons have you seen plenty of Twins' players not giving it all?  And with what consequences?   And it is continuing this Spring and I do not think that the Twins will go anywhere unless they go back to full effort (Mele's season, piranhas' season or whatever, take your peak.)   Examples (from that game) :

• Josh Willingham hits a scorcher past third base to left that bounced just over the bag, half a foot fair and rolled all the way to the corner.  As the ball was hit, I was thinking triple all the way.  Mr Willingham jogged around the bases and managed to get himself thrown out at second by a few feet.  It ended up being recorded as a single with the hitter thrown out at second trying to stretch it into a double. On the field It was much more.
• Vancy Worley was hit hard. Very hard.  And at about four times, if Trevor Plouffe was guarding the line on inside fastballs, he would have made outs out of those 4 hits.  I do understand it if it happens once.  Then you adjust.  And the Twins have a special infield coach who should supposedly help these days too. On paper it was four hits (a couple doubles as well.)   On the field it was much more. 
• Alex Presley gets on base.   Gets a good jump trying to steal second.  He is there before the throw.  He over-slides the base.  He is tagged out.  For the third time.  On the paper it was recorded as an CS.  On the field it was much more.
• Later in the game there is fly ball to the short left field.   LF Wilkin Ramirez goes in, SS Eduardo Escobar goes out to catch the ball.  Ramirez yells "I got it".  Escobar stops 7-8 feet away.  The ball drops in front of Ramirez.  On paper it was an error.  On the field it was much more.

It is the little things.  And they are not little. They are big cumulatively. And it is accountability for not doing things right.  Did Willingham and Presley have extra base running practice the next day?  Plouffe and Ramirez fielding practice?  Did anyone of them get pulled out of the game (they cannot be fined, the CBA took care of that)?  We all know the answer.  And if the Twins do not start holding everyone from the players, to the manager, to the coaches to the front office accountable for what is happening on the field, not much will change.  Rotation improvements or not.

My prediction: I hate to say it, but 70-92 and 5th place.   But I do hope that this time someone is held accountable for this...

Is there a trade between the Minnesota Twins and the Tampa Bay Rays imminent?

This morning the Minnesota Twins' AAA and AA teams had an intrasquad game at Field 3 at the Lee County Sports complex.  I will have more about it in my daily Twins Spring Training report that will be coming soon, but a couple interesting things happened that need to be noted.  Kevin Correia was scheduled to start tonight against the Baltimore Orioles in Sarasota; instead he started for the AAA squad facing Trevor May, who started for the AA squad.  Potentially, Correia pitched in this game to get his work in, in case the weather did not cooperate (and it did not.)

What was interesting was that there was a Tampa Bay Rays (with badge and id) scout who was paying strong attention to both Kevin Correia and Trevor May, timing each of their pitches, charting them and taking many notes.   Each of the Twins' starters pitched 5 innings.  After that, the aforementioned scout, put the notebook away and became an observer.

Coincidence? There has been speculation that Kevin Correia might be traded before the season started, and it is common knowledge that the Rays at this point do not have a fifth starter behind David Price, Matt Moore, Alex Cobb and Chris Archer (since Erik Bedard has been faltering,) and two of the aforementioned four are not very experienced.  The other internal options for the Rays' fifth spot (Jake Odorizzi, Nathan Karns and Cesar Ramos) offer slim pickings and someone like Kevin Correia (or even Trevor Mays) will be a definite upgrade.

Twins Spring Training Report from Fort Myers: 3/16/2014: Dueling Aces and Minor League Intrasquad games

Today it was Minnesota Day at Hammond Stadium, which apparently means that a whole bunch of people get early at the ballpark to tailgate at the parking lot and is a pain to find parking spots.   I arrived just in time for the two intrasquad games (AAA vs AA) and (A+ vs A) at Fields number 2 and 3.  Aaron Hicks was hitting for the AA team and Pedro Florimon was playing for the AAA team, so that is where I exclusively spent my time before I was headed to the ballpark for the Twins and Marlins game.

Alex Meyer was pitching and he was practically unhittable and a strike out machine, other than a long home run by Mike Gonzalez who looks in shape this season and will likely split the 1B/DH duties with Kennys Vargas in New Britain.  I am not going to give a scouting report on Meyer, it is unnecessary, but he was on top of his game and hitting his spots with ease.    I have not noticed before, but he does this weird thing with his mouth when he pitches:

Aaron Hicks did not play at the field but was the second batter in every inning for the AA squad and did nothing in 3 innings against Alex Meyer.  However, when he was replaced in the fourth, Hicks hit a long home run in dead center off Yohan Pino.   Pino was not quite as good as I remember him to be, his control was just not there.

Speaking of not good, BJ Hermsen started for the AA team and he was, well, not good.   It was amazing that he has been the Twins' minor league pitcher of the year in the past as well as having a spot on the 40-man roster.   I am not sure what has happened to him, but it is not pretty.  He was hit hard by every Rochester player, allowing multiple home runs and extra base hits.   Even Pedro Florimon hit a triple off him in one plate appearance and struck out (a feat by itself because Hermsen struck out 3.7 AA hitters per 9 innings last season) in another.

And if you are a major leaguer, this is how you go from the back fields to Hammond Stadium:

Some additional tidbits from the intrasquad game:  Evan Bigley played CF for Rochester today.  With Mastroianni back there tomorrow, I do not think that this will be a common sighting.  Bigley was fine at the field and made a couple good catches and looked good at the plate as well.   I think that this is a make or break season for him. 

This off-season the Twins picked up 28 year old CJ Ziegler, the Independent American Association MVP (.318/.408/.645 with 30 HRs and 99 RBI in 100 games,)  hoping it will be Chris Colabello's second coming.   Ziegler is listed at 6'5", 245 lbs, but he is a much bigger man.  This of a righty Jim Thome.  It will be interesting to see how he does in Rochester

Cole Johnson came to relieve BJ Hermsen and I think that he might be a sleeper.  Very lanky righty with easy delivery, throwing almost side arm and good movement.   Not a mph guy, but good solid stuff and looks like he got a good feel for pitching.  He struck out 11 per 9 innings last season in AA, so he might be doing something right.  The 44th round pick from Notre Dame in 2011 has been flying under the radar so far, but he might be someone to pay attention to this season.

Back at the Hammond Stadium the Twins hosted the Marlins, which resulted in a pitching matchup between a former Twins Ace

and the current Twins' Ace.

It was a pitching duel through five with each of the starters giving one run a piece and each of the starters topping out at 92 mph (which is quite a feat for Slowey.)    Ricky Nolasco was very impressive in that he has a repertoire of 5 (or so) pitches and he is throwing them any time in the count.  His change up (79-81) was particularly impressive today.   He will be the Twins' opening day starter and I predict a great season for him.   Both Jasons (Kubel and Bartlett) reached base today (a rarity for these guys) on walks.  Despite Twins' fans rooting for them to make the team, I think that their best days are well behind them and that they are not major league caliber players at this point.   Aaron Hicks came in for Alex Presley and had a nice double.    At this point, I think that it is not even close between these two.  In addition to Presley having an anemic bat this Spring and misjudging balls at the outfield, at one point in a single at mid-depth, he bounced the throw to the cutoff man.  An arm reminiscent of Ben Revere.  Speaking of feats, at some point Josh Willingham hit a strong liner that hugged the right field line.  I was thinking triple all the way as soon as it left his bat, but he managed to get thrown out at second base.  Unacceptable at pro ball.  Maybe the thing in his back pocket was weighing him down...

 

Tomorrow the Twins are playing the Orioles in Sarasota and it will be a full day of minor league coverage from Fort Myers for me.  

The Minnesota Twins cut 8 and the latest Spring Training dashboards

Today the Twins announced 8 cuts from the major league Spring Training camp.

The following players were optioned to AAA Rochester:

C Eric Fryer
LHP Kris Johnson
SS Danny Santana

And the following were re-assigned to the minor league camp:

IF James Beresford
LHP Sean Gilmartin 
OF Darin Mastroianni
OF Jermaine Mitchell
3B/1B Brandon Waring

The Santana and Johnson cuts are pretty surprising because they were doing pretty well.  Santana was probably the best position player at the camp and Pedro Florimon could not get the ball out of the cage in batting practice a couple days ago.  It might be good news for Eduardo Escobar.  However, I find it surprising that Doug Bernier, who has been barely average and Jason Bartlett who has been awful, are still in camp.  Kris Johnson's performance was the best of a lefty in the bubble so far, and his cut is also interesting at this point, given the fact that Aaron Thompson (not to mention Scott Diamond) is still in camp.  Maybe  they want to stretch him for starting in AAA.

These cuts leave the Twins with 20 pitchers and 20 position players, which means that 15 more need to be cut before opening day.

Here are the newest Spring Training Dashboards reflecting last night's game, including the players who were cut:

(You can find all of the 2014 Spring Training dashboards here) :

A reminder of the scoring system:

For the pitchers, I quantify using  a measurement created by Bill James more than a decade ago called "Game Score".  It is calculated as follows:

You start with 50 points for each pitcher.
Add 1 point for each out.
Add 1 point for each strikeout.
Subtract 2 points for each hit.
Subtract 4 points for each earned run.
Subtract 2 points for each unearned run.
Subtract 1 point for each walk.
There is a point bonus for pitching more than 4 innings as well, adding 2 points for each IP after the 4th, but this is not too applicable here.

Game Scored of 49-51 are "average" (yellow),
everything higher than 51 "above average" (green),
and everything below 49 "below average" (red).

For position players, I devised a similar metric that goes like this:

Start with 0 points (unlike the pitching Game Score that starts with 50)
Add 1 point for each Run, RBI, 2B, SB, BB, and HBP recorded.
Add 2.5 for each hit, 3 for each 3B and 4 for each HR.
Subtract 1 for each CS and GIDP,
subtract 1 for each error,
for catchers add 1 for each CS
Subtract 0.2 for each SO and 0.5 for each AB.

Again, as in the Pitching Battle Dashboard, the Position Player Battle Dashboard is color-coded based on average, above average and below average performances, where:

Average is Batting Game Score between 0 and 2
Above average is Batting Game Score higher than 2
Below average is Batting Game Score less than 0

Players on the 40-man roster are in bold.  The ones without options are also underlined.  Left-handed pitchers are in italics.

Here is the Dashboard for the Twins' position players:

And here for the pitchers:

I am heading to Hammond Stadium soon, where the Twins meet Kevin Slowey and the Florida Marlins.

Twins Spring Training Report from Fort Myers: 3/15/14: Top prospects galore take the back fields.

The (big) boys were out of town today and this left only the two A-level squads in action at the Lee County Sports Complex fields playing the A and Advanced A level Orioles' squads.   One of the things that need to be noted, is that these squads do not see each other in regular season competition.  The Twins' Advanced A team, the Fort Myers Miracle, is in the Florida State League, whereas the Orioles' Advance A team, the Frederick Keys, is in the Carolina League.  The Twins' A team, the Cedar Rapids Kernels, is in the Midwest League and the O's A team, the Delmarva Shorebirds, is in the Southern Atlantic League.  Even their higher level short season teams are in different leagues:  The Elizabethton Twins are in the Rookie Appalachian League, whereas as the Aberdeen IronBirds are in the Short-Season A, New York-Pennsylvania League.  So the players (and the coaches) are not really familiar with each other.

Another fun thing about today was that there were 9 of my top 40 Twins' prospects playing today and at least 3 more players who will receive consideration for next season: Numbers 8 (Berrios), 10 (Gonsalves), 11 (Eades), 12 (Jorge), 13 (Harrison), 16 (Kepler), 18 (Walker), 24 (DJ Hicks) and 26 (Duffey.)  Here is what I saw from them today:

Jose Berrios, was on top of his game.  He probably gained a couple on inches of height from last season and his fastball gained a few notches.  He was throwing easy 94-96 mph four seamers, his curveball was its usual plus pitch (but probably the third best curve by a Twins' pitcher today; more on that later) and his changeup is improving.  He struck out the side first inning and cruised afterwards.  A solid pitcher for that number 8 ranking, who might move a bit higher if he shows some endurance and pitches a bunch of innings at Fort Myers this season.

Stephen Gonsalves, my 10th ranked prospect, threw the single nastiest pitch on both fields today:  His 12-6 slow 69-73 mph curveball is a devastating pitch.  And coming from a tall lanky lefty who is all arms and lengths, is even more harder to hit.  Solid 89-91 mph two seamer and a good high 70s changeup complement his offerings.  I have Gonsalves ranked as the highest ranked LHP prospect in the Twins' system, and unless I get really flabbergasted by Luis Thorpe, it will still be the case.  That curveball (or any plus plus secondary "out" pitch) is very hard to develop, while adding mph on one's fastball is easier.

 

I admit that I also got a bit of heat when I ranked Ryan Eades as the Twins'  11th best prospect.  And the reasons I did, are the same reasons that today I think that the ranking is pretty good:  He is a very polished pitcher with at least 4 above average pitches:  His bread and butter is a 89-92 mph two seamer with crazy movement.  Think Deduno, but with better control.  Today, the results were not good, because he had to throw it up the zone because the home plate umpire did not call the low strike at all, but this is a plus pitch at that level.  Add above average to plus slow curve, cutter/slider and change, and you got a complete pitcher.

Felix Jorge (my number 12 prospect) is a guy who a lot of people think that he is throwing high 90s heat because of the sound of the ball when it hits the glove, plus he has this nice frame and fluid delivery and looks like he can throw fast.  Here is my mini scouting report in the prospect rankings (go to number 12.)  His fastball touched 92 today, but it is a really heavy sinker.  This guy is a warm killer.  Great downward movement and good horizontal tailing.  The breaking ball (called it a slurve back then, still stand with it) is tight. Second best breaking ball today.  Very easy delivery.  I think that the change up with improve, and I bet that he has a four-seamer in his back pocket.  Really.

Keeping with the pitchers and skipping up to number 26:  It was good to see Tyler Duffey pitch and I have this feeling in the back of my head that he will be a reliever again.  His fastball was up to 95; and this is about 4 mph more than his average last season. And that was a very effective pitch.  He is also throwing a slider and change, which both are above average.

As far as the position players go:

These two guys (who were first and second on one of the most meaningless stats - RBIs - in the Twins' organization last season)  look even bigger this season.  Florida State League beware.

Travis Harrison is in incredible shape. The last couple seasons, he was the prototypical slow power hitter guy, even as a teenager, making people think that he is a corner OF/1B/DH type.  This season the Fort Myers' (and likely New Britain) fans will be in for a treat.  Today he legged out a triple, he has much better range at the field.  A total delight to see.  Dark horse to shoot up the prospect rankings big time.  And he hit in the second hole tonight.

Speaking of people who will shoot up the rankings (at least mine) here are 3:

Engelb Vielma.  This is the single one most unknown superstar in the making in the Twins' organization.  He turned two unassisted double plays (one a line out/throw out the other a step on second throw at first) today and he made them seem so easy.  Like it is an everyday kind of thing.  Looks like his contact tool is getting better.  He has crazy nutty speed and as a cutoff guy, he almost threw a guy out at third on a easy triple. Very strong arm.  And he has room to grow.  I think that he will move into second in my SS rankings after 6th overall ranked Jorge Polanco.

The other two guys are catchers who just look like ball players: Brian Navarreto (pictured below) and Mitch Garver.  All of a sudden, I think that the Twins are alright in catcher depth in the organization.

Twins Spring Training Report From Fort Myers: 3/14/2014 and the newest dashboards

Second day of live coverage of the Twins Spring training from Fort Myers.  Today there was mainly major league action and some minor league drills before the Miracle and Kernels games, with the Red Wings and Rock Cats squads traveling.

 As a reminder, you can find all Spring Training coverage here. 

On the single A Beloit side of things, there was a lot of fielding practice going on, including a lot of serious work with the pitchers.  I think that these gentlemen might make a pretty mighty squad this coming season:

On the field few paces west (Field 2) the high A squad was doing drills with Doug Mientkiewitz and company.   This is more of a note to self, but this guy, is one to follow, especially after his lights out appearance at Elizabethton last season.  Second tallest person in the Twins' system (Loek Van Mil now has replaced Tanaka in his previous team in Japan) and I think that his future is bright.

And, yes, Hudson Boyd looks a lot slimmer and he ever volunteer to carry stuff around:

Even this guy was practicing with the Miracle:

And it was good to see him rip a couple and let them go.  (This is Alex Wimmers, if you don't know.)  He then joined a bunch of Red Wings' pitchers like Alex Meyers, Yohan Pino, Danny Turpen and company for a toss.

The main affair at Hammond Stadium was a 2-2 a piece tie with Baltimore.  Mike Pelfrey started and he pitched a fine 3 innings.  A couple things to note (actually one) :  Either he is working on a sinker (yes) or they calibrated the Hammond Stadium radar (yes too).  He was tossing mainly two seamers with a couple of curves and splitters mixed in today and his two-seamers were sitting around 89-91 a good 4-5 mph below his usual four seamer velocity.

Good to see Mattie Guerrier throw today, especially after Jared Burton, because he was so much better than Burton.  Easy 92-93 mph, nice mechanics, I am not sure whether he should be regarded as a dark horse at this point.  Give him a week or so of work and I suspect that he might make the team.

Glen Perkins signed a contact extension and this was what he had to say:

 

The other half of the Twins' split squad punished the Yankees 7-2 up in Tampa today.  

Here are the newest Spring Training Dashboards reflecting both games today:

(You can find all of the 2014 Spring Training dashboards here) :

A reminder of the scoring system:

For the pitchers, I quantify using  a measurement created by Bill James more than a decade ago called "Game Score".  It is calculated as follows:

You start with 50 points for each pitcher.
Add 1 point for each out.
Add 1 point for each strikeout.
Subtract 2 points for each hit.
Subtract 4 points for each earned run.
Subtract 2 points for each unearned run.
Subtract 1 point for each walk.
There is a point bonus for pitching more than 4 innings as well, adding 2 points for each IP after the 4th, but this is not too applicable here.

Game Scored of 49-51 are "average" (yellow),
everything higher than 51 "above average" (green),
and everything below 49 "below average" (red).

For position players, I devised a similar metric that goes like this:

Start with 0 points (unlike the pitching Game Score that starts with 50)
Add 1 point for each Run, RBI, 2B, SB, BB, and HBP recorded.
Add 2.5 for each hit, 3 for each 3B and 4 for each HR.
Subtract 1 for each CS and GIDP,
subtract 1 for each error,
for catchers add 1 for each CS
Subtract 0.2 for each SO and 0.5 for each AB.

Again, as in the Pitching Battle Dashboard, the Position Player Battle Dashboard is color-coded based on average, above average and below average performances, where:

Average is Batting Game Score between 0 and 2
Above average is Batting Game Score higher than 2
Below average is Batting Game Score less than 0

Players on the 40-man roster are in bold.  The ones without options are also underlined.  Left-handed pitchers are in italics.

Here is the Dashboard for the Twins' position players:

 and for the pitchers:

Twins Spring Training Report From Fort Myers: 3/13/2014

I am on site at Fort Myers and this will be the first in a series of reports regarding the Twins' major and minor leaguers from the Lee County sports complex grounds.  As a reminder, you can find all Spring Training coverage here. 

Miguel Sulbaran came to the Twins from the Dodgers in the Drew Butera trade last season and started four games for the Cedar Rapids Kernels, the Twins single A affiliate.   Sulbaran did not make it to my top 40 off-season Twins' prospect list,  but he made the cut in plenty lists, so I was intrigued to see him pitch for the first time, throwing live pitching practice to Pedro Florimon (mostly) and Nate Hanson.  He is stockier than his listed 5'10", 185 lbs, with strong lower body.  He has a good fastball in the low 90s with good pop.  He threw a very good changeup, and an excellent curve, which had Florimon guessing.  He also has a slider that is a cutter-like pitch. 30-40 live batting practice pitches are not a big sample size, but I think that the Twins have something here.  On the other hand 30-40 pitches were plenty enough to see that Florimon is not even close.  He made contact with only 2 balls, neither of which left the cage.   The biggest issue is timing.  I just cannot see how he can make the team with just 2 weeks left in Spring Training.

Today the Twins were hosting the Red Sox at Hammond Stadium and had another Spring Training attendance record with 92xx people.    Phil Hughes was the starter for the Twins. He started the first inning throwing primarily his four-seamer that was sitting between 92-94 and touched 95.  He also threw a few cutters  at 88-91 and his curveball that was pretty much the story of his game.  He is working on it this spring to replace his slider and it was the main pitch he threw his last 2 innings of work, along a few two-seamers and cutters and a couple of high 70s low 80s change ups.  His curveball hit anywhere from 69-75 mph and he threw one for strikes (one of them caught David Ortiz looking at strike 3) as well as at the dirt.  His appearance was much better than the results that were in part on a fielding error by Plouffe or a ground ball and on another on Mauer on a low pick off throw by Hughes (that one actually could have been on Hughes as well.)

 

Hard to see Mauer at first base, but he was fine (other than that one play)

Matt Hoffman pitched a couple of innings for the Twins and I think that he is in competition for a Lefty Spot in the pen.  

He really has 2 pitches now, a fastball that touched 89 and a breaking ball of sorts that was thrown around 80.  That is somewhat of a slurve, but with more of a change up type of motion and I can see it raking havoc against left hand batters.   

Deduno has pitched for 3 innings and they were strong 3 innings.  I could not believe that he would be ready this close to his shoulder surgery, but he threw really well.  His fastball was as lively as ever from 88-92 and his control was better than I have seen from him before.  I was really impressed today.

Mike Tonkin finished the game for the Twins and he had a solid outing.  One thing that might mean something or might not, is that his fastball was clocking from 91-94 (with the Hammond Stadium radar) with is a few ticks lower than his usual fastball.   He is a candidate to break camp with the Twins this Spring

I am not sure that any of these gentlemen, on the other hand, will be breaking camp with the Twins:

And the reason I am saying this is that Hicks has been solid both with the bat and on the field, while Presley has been anaemic with the bat and error prone at the field and he has a long way to climb now to even reach the back up level, while Frier is probably fourth in the depth chart, behind Hermann, Pinto and Suzuki (alphabetically.)  Chris Herrmann might have been the surprise of this spring, along with Danny Santana, and will be interesting to see these two guys up North.  Chris Collabelo is another player who might be knocking at the door and this might mean bad news for Jason Kubel.

There was a replay today on a disputed home run call, and I cannot believe how primitive looking the replay apparatus is:

All in all it was a good game.   There was a questionable stop sign by the Twins third base coach, Joe Vavra, with 2 outs and down one at the eighth inning, but I guess coaches have Spring Training as well.  Regardless, if the Twins are to climb off the 90 loss hole, they need to be more aggressive at every phase of the game including base running.

The Elusive Twins' 5th Starter Battle: It does not exist and it is not a bad thing necessarily

One of the most contested spots for the Twins, on paper,  this Spring Training was going to be that of the 5th starter.   The newly signed (or re-signed) Ricky Nolasco, Phil Hughes and Mike Pelfrey, in addition to holdover veteran Kevin Correia, had four spots, while the three out of option guys (Samuel Deduno, Scott Diamond and Vance Worley, in alphabetical order) were to battle for that fifth spot, maybe with the addition of first round draft pick Kyle Gibson and newly acquired once top prospect lefty Kris Johnson.   Even opinions that maybe two of the later group might win spots and force a trade of Kevin Correia were mentioned.

That was on paper and theoretically.  Here is what is happening in reality:

Ron Gardenhire had this to say about Samuel Deduno: "He's healthy. Coming out of the 'pen, whatever, I like the guy. I would love to have this guy on my staff".  In other words, one of the no-options-left pitchers is all but destined for a bullpen position.   In addition, here is the list of the pitchers who have started the Twins' games this spring (including the "B" and intrasquad games) :

2/27 (intrasquad) : Hughes
2/27 (intrasquad) : Correia
2/28 (Red Sox) : Pelfrey
3/1 (Red Sox) : Diamond
3/2 (Rays) : Nolasco
3/3 (Blue Jays) : Correia
3/3  (Pirates) : Worley
3/4 (Marlins) : Hughes
3/5 (Orioles) : Pelfrey
3/7 (Pirates - B game) : Correia
3/7 (Pirates) : Worley
3/8 (Blue Jays) : Hughes
3/9 (Phillies) : Pelfrey
3/11 (Rays) : Nolasco (today)

So other than the 3/1 game, Scott Diamond has been pitching in relief, like Samuel Deduno, Kyle Gibson, Kris Johnson et al., which means that if he makes the club, it will likely be as a reliever and the Twins all but handed the 5th starter job to Vance Worley.   And this is not a bad thing necessarily because he is the youngest of all 3 pitchers with no options, has the highest upside and has had the most success in the majors.

Updated Twins Spring Training Battle Dashboards Reflecting the First Cuts

Here are the latest Twins Spring Training battle dashboards updated for yesterday's game and the Spring Training cuts.  The players who were cut are not longer listed.  You can find all of the 2014 Spring Training dashboards here) :

A reminder of the scoring system:

For the pitchers, I quantify using  a measurement created by Bill James more than a decade ago called "Game Score".  It is calculated as follows:

You start with 50 points for each pitcher.
Add 1 point for each out.
Add 1 point for each strikeout.
Subtract 2 points for each hit.
Subtract 4 points for each earned run.
Subtract 2 points for each unearned run.
Subtract 1 point for each walk.
There is a point bonus for pitching more than 4 innings as well, adding 2 points for each IP after the 4th, but this is not too applicable here.

Game Scored of 49-51 are "average" (yellow),
everything higher than 51 "above average" (green),
and everything below 49 "below average" (red).

For position players, I devised a similar metric that goes like this:

Start with 0 points (unlike the pitching Game Score that starts with 50)
Add 1 point for each Run, RBI, 2B, SB, BB, and HBP recorded.
Add 2.5 for each hit, 3 for each 3B and 4 for each HR.
Subtract 1 for each CS and GIDP,
subtract 1 for each error,
for catchers add 1 for each CS
Subtract 0.2 for each SO and 0.5 for each AB.

Again, as in the Pitching Battle Dashboard, the Position Player Battle Dashboard is color-coded based on average, above average and below average performances, where:

Average is Batting Game Score between 0 and 2
Above average is Batting Game Score higher than 2
Below average is Batting Game Score less than 0

Players on the 40-man roster are in bold.  The ones without options are also underlined.  Left-handed pitchers are in italics.

Here is the Dashboard for the Twins' position players:

 

 

 

And for the Pitchers:

 

 

 

 

The Twins make their first cuts of Spring Training and there are just a few surprises

Yesterday I speculated about the first cuts of the Spring Training for the Minnesota Twins.  This morning the Twins announced these cuts and there were only a couple names I have not mentioned yesterday.   After these 16 cuts, the Twins now have 48 players in the major league camp. Here is the full list of the cuts:

40-man roster:

Optioned to AAA Rochester Red Wings:

LHP Logan Darnell
LHP Edgar Ibarra
LHP Brooks Raley
RHP Trevor May

Optioned to AA New Britain Rock Cats:

1B Kennys Vargas

Optioned to A+ Fort Myers Miracle:

OF Max Kepler
SS Jorge Polanco

Non-roster invitees:

Re-assigned to the Minor League Camp:

OF Byron Buxton
C Kyle Knudson
C Matt Koch
RHP Alex Meyer
RHP Lester Oliveros
RHP Yohan Pino
OF Chris Rahl
3B Miguel Sano
C Stuart Turner

The only surprises that I did not see yesterday, were Oliveros, Pino, Raley and Buxton.  I thought that the Twins might want a longer look at the first 3, and even-though Buxton looked over-matched, I thought that they might want him to hang around a bit longer.  It made sense to cut another catcher, since they re-assigned more pitchers than I thought.

Even more importantly is who did not get cut, especially among players who never played in the majors and are on the 40-man roster.  It was not a surprise, but a confirmation that the Twins will not hang the starting SS job to Pedro Florimon, without taking a long look at Danny Santana (and Eduardo Escobar,) both of whom are having a great Spring.  Also not a surprise that the Twins let the two Jasons (Bartlett and Kubel) be around a little longer, even though they are definitely not performing.

Speculation on the Twins' first Spring Training cuts and updated battle dashboards

Like most teams the Minnesota Twins will be announcing the first cuts of the major league Spring Training camp very soon.  Who will those players be?

One group of players who gets cut first are players on the 40-man roster who do not have much likelihood to make the team and were added on the roster for protection's sake.   I think that Logan Darnell, Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco and Kennys Vargas  will be the four casualties from this category.  I think that Trevor May is on the bubble and might be in the first cuts list as well, because he has been pitching primarily in relief (and not that great) and will need to be stretched as a starter and it might be good timing with the minor league games starting the coming Monday.  Edgar Ibarra, who has yet to play because of Hepatitis B, is another serious candidate to go to the minor league camp to recuperate.

I think that the Twins will want to have a longer look on Danny Santana, Kris Johnson (they are performing really well and with Pedro Florimon yet to play because of his apendectomy and the fifth starter job wide open, there might be real opportunities).   I also suspect that the Twins would want a longer look on Brooks Raley because he just has not been around much and they might need to make a decision on his 40-man roster spot.

There is not much pressure to cut non-roster invitees (because they do not have to be in the Major League DL, receive ML pay and have their clocks ticking, if there is an injury during camp,) but I suspect that some will be cut as well.   Sean Gilmartin would be a good candidate from this group because of the opportunity to get stretched in Minor League games.  Also with the reduction in pitchers, the Twins are likely to demote a catcher or two, because they do not need them, with Stuart Turner and Matt Koch being the most likely.  Even though Jason Kubel and Jason Bartlett are having a hard time hitting the ball, I suspect that the Twins will give them every opportunity to succeed in Spring Training.  This might not be the case for Chris Rahl who sees fellow non-roster outfielder invitees Jermaine Mitchell, Darin Mastroianni and Wilkin Ramirez performing better than him.

Here are the latest battle dashboards updated for today's game (and you can find all of the 2014 Spring Training dashboards here) :

A reminder of the scoring system:

For the pitchers, I quantify using  a measurement created by Bill James more than a decade ago called "Game Score".  It is calculated as follows:

You start with 50 points for each pitcher.
Add 1 point for each out.
Add 1 point for each strikeout.
Subtract 2 points for each hit.
Subtract 4 points for each earned run.
Subtract 2 points for each unearned run.
Subtract 1 point for each walk.
There is a point bonus for pitching more than 4 innings as well, adding 2 points for each IP after the 4th, but this is not too applicable here.

Game Scored of 49-51 are "average" (yellow),
everything higher than 51 "above average" (green),
and everything below 49 "below average" (red).

For position players, I devised a similar metric that goes like this:

Start with 0 points (unlike the pitching Game Score that starts with 50)
Add 1 point for each Run, RBI, 2B, SB, BB, and HBP recorded.
Add 2.5 for each hit, 3 for each 3B and 4 for each HR.
Subtract 1 for each CS and GIDP,
subtract 1 for each error,
for catchers add 1 for each CS
Subtract 0.2 for each SO and 0.5 for each AB.

Again, as in the Pitching Battle Dashboard, the Position Player Battle Dashboard is color-coded based on average, above average and below average performances, where:

Average is Batting Game Score between 0 and 2
Above average is Batting Game Score higher than 2
Below average is Batting Game Score less than 0

Players on the 40-man roster are in bold.  The ones without options are also underlined.  Lefty pitchers are in italics.

Here is the Dashboard for the Twins' position players:

 

 

 

And for the Twins' pitchers:

 

 

Diamond's Back Foot and Twins Spring Training Dashboards

The Twins lost to the Baltimore Orioles' travel squad yesterday in a pretty bad way (11-5.)  Here are the Spring Training Battle Dashboards updated after yesterday's game:

For position players:

For pitchers

Scott Diamond's performance, even though collectively awful, and reflected by the lowest Game Score this season, it was a tale of two innings:  He pitched a really excellent fifth inning (which actually made me think that he might be a decent choice for the pen potentially, if he does not make the rotation,) and a really really poor sixth inning with balls going all over the place and a hard time throwing strikes. What was the difference? 

In the fifth inning he pitched fast and had a very fluid delivery.  One single fluid non-stop motion. In the sixth inning he was tentative and looked like he was thinking too much about what he was throwing and it was a lot like last season.  When Diamond does that, he tends to do this exaggerated pause at the end of his delivery and it is very noticeable with his back leg:  The foot hangs up in the air with the cleats facing upwards and his his body parallel to the ground, and he stays there immobile for a full second or two, as the pitch is traveling to the plate and he is watching it hit the glove (or the bat or the dirt) in this position.

Like this:

It might make a pretty interesting yoga posture, but not good baseball:  That pitch is almost in the glove, the delivery should have ended, both feet should be on the ground and he should be ready to field his position.  And all those things mentioned in the previous sentence were there for Diamond the previous (successful) inning.

I don't think that it is a cause and effect relationship (as if the exaggerated pausing and posturing would cause bad pitches) but a symptom of maybe forcing it up there or thinking too much or trying to be too perfect, instead of just pitching and letting go.  He did the same pausing at the end of his delivery all last season.

Just another thing to watch this Spring.

Twins 2014 Locks, Spring Training Battles and the first Battle Dashboards

As in the past few years I will use dashboards to keep track of the performance of the Twins' players during Spring Training in order to get a numerical and visual representation of who is doing what, of the players who are battling for a position on the 40-man roster.  With few games in and the first cuts coming early next week, it might be a good time for the first one of these.

To determine that, we need to figure out who are the "locks" to come up North with the Twins. 

As far as position players go, Joe Mauer, Brian Dozier, Trevor Plouffe, and Josh Willingham are locks for starting positions.  Kurt Suzuki is also a lock to make the 25-man roster, but not a lock to start, so he is included in the list.   A lot of people might think that Pedro Florimon might also be a lock, but I think that he has to work to make it up North. 

The major Spring Battles for position players are:  The starting and backup catcher jobs, the starting SS job, the starting DH job, two of the starting OFs, and bench positions. 

As far as the rotation goes, Ricky Nolasco, Phil Hughes and Mike Pelfrey are locks.  Kevin Correia might still be considered a lock by man, however he could potentially be beaten for the fourth spot in the rotation and get traded before Spring Training.  In addition, the fifth spot in the rotation is wide-open.

As far as the pen goes, the only locks I see are Glen Perkins, Jared Burton, Brian Duensing and Anthony Swarzak, again pending trades.  The starting pitcher combatants for the last rotation spot(s) could also gain positions in the pen.

From the list I excluded players like Kennys Vargas, Byron Buxton, Max Kepler et al who will not make the Twins out of Spring Training.

A reminder of the scoring system:

For the pitchers, I quantify using  a measurement created by Bill James more than a decade ago called "Game Score".  It is calculated as follows:

You start with 50 points for each pitcher.
Add 1 point for each out.
Add 1 point for each strikeout.
Subtract 2 points for each hit.
Subtract 4 points for each earned run.
Subtract 2 points for each unearned run.
Subtract 1 point for each walk.
There is a point bonus for pitching more than 4 innings as well, adding 2 points for each IP after the 4th, but this is not too applicable here.

Game Scored of 49-51 are "average" (yellow),
everything higher than 51 "above average" (green),
and everything below 49 "below average" (red).

For position players, I devised a similar metric that goes like this:

Start with 0 points (unlike the pitching Game Score that starts with 50)
Add 1 point for each Run, RBI, 2B, SB, BB, and HBP recorded.
Add 2.5 for each hit, 3 for each 3B and 4 for each HR.
Subtract 1 for each CS and GIDP,
subtract 1 for each error,
for catchers add 1 for each CS
Subtract 0.2 for each SO and 0.5 for each AB.

Again, as in the Pitching Battle Dashboard, the Position Player Battle Dashboard is color-coded based on average, above average and below average performances, where:

Average is Batting Game Score between 0 and 2
Above average is Batting Game Score higher than 2
Below average is Batting Game Score less than 0

Players on the 40-man roster are in bold.  The ones without options are also underlined.  Lefty pitchers are in italics.

Here is the Dashboard for the Twins' position players:

 

 

And here for the Pitchers:

 

 

 

 

 

Random thoughts from the Twins' intrasquad game today

Today the Minnesota Twins unofficially had their first game of the Spring Training, which was an intrasquad contest.  Here are some of my thoughts from what happened in this game:

• Pitchers seem to be well ahead of hitters:
• Phil Hughes pitched 2 scoreless innings throwing 21 out of 27 strikes, striking out 4 (including Buxton and Sano) and his FB was 91/92 mph
• Kevin Correia also pitched 2 run-free innings with 14/26 strikes, a K and a BB.
• Kyle Gibson hit 94 mph on the gun and also pitched 2 scoreless innings  (18/25 strikes)
• Phil Hughes said that he will not throw the slider (a pitch he primarily threw in 2013 and a lot, 21.3% of his pitches were sliders; but with not much success, resulting in -0.8 runs per 100 pitches) and will replace it with a slow curve (9% of his pitches last season with about average success) and a cutter, a pitch he did not throw consistently since 2011.  The cutter was very good in 2009 and 2010 but not as good in 2011 and he abandoned it.  A curve is a pitcher that he will throw primarily against LHBs and the cutter (and slider) against RHBs.
• I am not convinced that Kevin Correia will be with the Twins for a long time.  I can see Gibson pushing him to the trading block during Spring Training
• Eduardo Escobar played 3B (replacing Sano) which is his worst fielding position, instead of Shortstop (his best fielding position; he won the Gold Glove for the Venezuela Winter League this off-season).  I feel that Escobar can replace Florimon as the Twins' starting shortstop, if given a chance and it is frustrating to see Gardenhire playing him out of position.
• The big boys did really well defensively
• Miquel Sano had several good plays at third base including several strong throws, which is good news for the shape of his elbow
• Kennys Vargas maybe made the defensive play of the game with a diving stop and throw to the pitcher (Worley) who was covering first.  Both of these guys' defense is better than certain people might want you to believe
• I hope that Byron Buxton's performance today (0-3, 3K, 1BB late in the game) will land on earth the fans who think he should be the Twins' starting Centerfielder in 2014.  He has a great future, but patience is needed.
• Josmil Pinto played today, which is good news meaning that his back is better, but Rob Antony said on the radio that the Twins think that he came to Spring Training "a bit heavy", which is bad news, because it sounds like the Twins' brass is preparing the ground for a demotion and going with Suzuki as the starter, a non-optimal situation.

2014 Spring Training Guide to Fort Myers. Part I: The Logistics

Less than a month for Pitchers and Catchers to report to Fort Myers so it is about time for you to make your arrangements to go to Fort Myers and it is about time for the third annual Fort Myers Guides, which will be updates from last years' guides.   Also, as a retrospect after I return, I will do a "bargain guide to Spring Training in Fort Myers" to really try to give hints on how to get there, stay there, eat there and attend Twins' games and spend as much as possible.  Will make this an annual feature as well.  But there will be budget minded features in every one of the main guides.

Last season there were three Spring Training Guides: Last year's logistics' guide is here, baseball guide here, and the food guide here.  This season there will be three guides and will be different than last year's based on my experiences from the last season.   This is the first guide:  The Spring Training Logistics Guide, where the area is described and the best and least expensive ways of getting to the Twins' Spring Training home.  Knowing what I know now last season, I could have saved at least a couple hundred dollars in airfare, at least that much in a hotel and about that much in a car rental, money better spent watching the Twins and buying Twins' (and Miracle) gear.   As a bonus, I will list the official Twins' hotel, which is the place where a lot of Twins' people stay and a great place to rub elbows with Twins' players and staff.

The second guide will be all about baseball.  What is going on at the Training Complex, tips and tricks about watching the games at Hammond Stadium (based on my fresh experience from last year and the changes in the ballpark) and other ballparks you might want to visit.  This with be the Spring Training Baseball Guide. 

The third guide will be a Food Guide to Fort Myers and will be a fusion of the last 2 years guides, with additions.

These guides are mainly from the Twins' perspective but useful for Red Sox' (and soon Nationals') fans

How to get to Fort Myers:

Unless you want to have a non-rental car with you (a good choice if you are a player or will be there for a month or so, or you live close to Fort Myers) flying is probably the best choice. There is a local airport (Southeast Florida International, code: RSW) served by a variety of airlines, but there are a total of about 75 flights a day into and out from there. Alternative airports are the larger Tampa International (TPA) and Miami International (MIA), about 2 and 2.5 hrs drive respectively as is the Sarasota Bradenton International Airport (SRQ) is slightly over an hour drive from Fort Myers and slightly larger airport than the Southwest Florida International at Fort Myers.  Fort Lauderdale (FLL) is also an option, and a potentially fairly attractive one if your home airport has airlines like Frontier, Spirit and Allegient and you are willing to fly them, because they have inexpensive and relatively frequent flights there.  Flying into Fort Myers is probably the most expensive option in the list but you do not have to drive far.  Also, the TSA checkpoints in the return trip are a mess.  Budget an extra hour to go through.  My favorite option: Orlando.

Orlando International (MCO) is about 3 hrs away from Fort Myers, but it offers the benefit of having the lowest airfare and lowest car rental prices in Florida, in combination to more that 60 mainstream carrier flights daily.  Plus, as a bonus, if you have a family, you can spend a few days there with the kids, which will help them palate more 8+ hrs of baseball-related stuff that you would do once at Fort Myers.  As far as airfare prices go and where to find the best ones, go to the ITA Matrix software portal, chose the "show a calendar of lowest fares" and play with it.  This is the tool that travel agents are using.  Once you find a flight, go online to the airline or an online travel agency and reserve it.   My fares in and out of MCO have been in the $150-200 range from the North East, but fares change depending on departing city.  Another Orlando alternative is Sanford International Airport (SFB) that is preferred by several low cost carriers, such as Allegiant.   You might also want to look at neighboring airports to your home town within driving distance for potential lower fares.



As far as rental cars go (and you do need one since the public transportation in Fort Myers is non-existent,) the best value in Florida is Dollar.  And here is a trick:  Go to the Dollar web site and register to be an express member for free.  This way you will have the car waiting in a predetermined spot and you by-pass the counter.  Next, make your reservation, by selecting view all car types and picking the least expensive option. Once you make your reservation, check it often and early and "modify" it to see if there are any lower prices posted.  Dollar is notorious of dropping their car prices, especially close to the reservation dates.  I usually rent cars at about $12-16 a day.  But you have to check and change those prices a lot.  Refuse the automatic toll machine ($8ish/day) and the GPS ($13ish a day) and deal with the insurance as you normally do (i.e. if you refuse because you are covered by your own car, refuse it.)

If you want to drive down there, the fastest was to get there is via I-75 that goes through the town. From most points of the Midwest or Northwest, the best way is to catch I-75 around the Metro Atlanta area. From South and South West, I-10 hits I-75 in North Florida about an hour east of Jacksonville. From the East Coast, the best bet would be I-95 all the way to Daytona Beach, then I-4 through Orlando and catching I-75 at Tampa. If you live at the Twin Cities area, Minneapolis is about 1700 miles away from Fort Myers, which means about 3 days of 8 hours driving each, each way.  Enjoy :)

If you are planning to fly to Orlando and drive south, do not go through Tampa and take I-75.  Take I-4 to I-17 south, through Winter Heaven (the abandoned now former Spring Training home of the Red Sox) to Arcadia, to Port Charlotte (Spring Training Home of the Rays).   It is a great ride through orange orchards (and road side stands to purchase them) and small farming towns.  Will give you a totally different perspective of Florida.


This is a map of South & Central Florida, to let you see where Fort Myers is situated in Florida (all maps and satellite images used in this post are screen shots from Bing maps) :




The Metro Area and the City:

Fort Myers (and, btw, it is not Ft. Myers) is the smallest of 3 cities in the Fort Myers-Cape Coral Metropolitan area. It has about 62,000 people, whereas the Metro has about 650,000 people most of them living in Cape Coral, a city planned and started in the late 50s as a huge retirement community. Interestingly enough the planners wanted to make every property close to water, so they created and extensive system of Canals. Cape Coral has more miles of navigable waterways than any city in the world, including Venice (Italy, not FL) and Amsterdam. About 400 miles of canals. Fort Myers Beach, Sanibel Island and Pine Island are popular beach front communities with a lot of beach-related tourism.

Here is a photo of the Cape Coral- Fort Myers metro:



An important note, especially to people from northern climates: Average temperatures in March are 80 for high and 60 for low, so make sure that you pack sunscreen, hats, glasses, shorts, t-shirts and a swimsuit, if you are so inclined.  And if you get sunburns, you will get a sunburn there, so please plan accordingly

The city of Fort Myers itself is very easily navigated. Here is a map of the City with the Twins' Spring Training Headquarters noted with an orange Marker:





You can click here for a larger picture in a new window.

Really important note if you have not been in that part of the world before, and you like to do outdoor activities like running:

Be diligent around bodies of water, like ponds, canals, lakes etc.  Those floating things that look like branches are not branches, they are alligators.   And there is a ton of them.


Where to Stay:

The Fort Myers Airport is about 6 miles due west from Hammonds Stadium and the Spring Training Complex. Daniels Parkway (that becomes Cypress Lake Dr in the City) will take you from the Airport to the town and the Twins' complex. If you are on a budget and looking for a hotel, the ones on Daniels Parkway and that area west of I-75 offer good bargains and are fairly close to the Twins' Spring Training Complex. Another area for reasonable accommodations is the S. Cleveland Avenue North of Page Field.

Mostly everything can be found within a large triangle defined by S. Cleveland Ave to the West, Colonial Blvd to the North and the Ben C. Pratt Pkwy going Northeast to Southwest. The Twins' Spring training complex is on the South part of Ben C. Pratt Pkwy, just South of Daniels Pkwy.  Traffic, other than when the games are over, is not an issue at Fort Myers.

If you want to rub elbows with Twins' players and staff, the Twins' official/unofficial hotel in the Fort Myers' area is the Hilton Garden Inn Fort Myers (not the one by the airport, but the one "in town").

Alternatively you can stay at Naples (offers more things to do at night) or Port Charlotte (offers less expensive rooms and it is the Rays' Spring Training Home).  Both are about half an hour easy drive away.

The best bargains for Hotels (unless you are a frequent guest and can use points for free rooms) are either Hotwire or Hotels.com, but the establishments are sometimes name-less so it can be a gamble.  On the other hand, if you stay pretty close to the ballpark and away from the downtown area, there are not any seedy places.


Budget pick for a hotel: Knight's Inn Arcadia, at around $50 a night.  About 45 minutes away from Hammond Stadium.  In town, Crestwood Suites is around $70 a night (stay away from hotels cheaper than that price point at Fort Myers).



The Twins' Spring Training Complex:

Here is a satellite image of the Lee County Sports Complex:



More about the complex, how and when to get there and all the things about the Twins' Spring Training home in the next guide.