Who is Boof Bonser?

After the Twins removed Boof Bonser from their 40-man roster to make room for the signing of Carl Pavano, they dealt him today to the Boston Red Sox for a yet to be disclosed minor league player. It might seem as a small win for the Twins, since they gained something for a player they were about to lose for nothing, but is it so? The reason stated that Bonser, and not a lesser player like Bobby Keppel, Matt Tolbert or Drew Butera, was removed from the roster was because Bonser did not accept the $550,000 contract the Twins offered him during the offseason and he was headed to arbitration. I suspect that the Twins' brass did not realize that offering him about $90,000 over the minimum would be borderline insulting. So they cut their nose to spite their face and kept Bobby Keppel instead...

Can Bonser be successful? Let's look at the facts starting with a mini scouting report:

Bonser has 4 main pitches: A fastball that averages 92 mph, but hits 95 occasionally with some movement, a plus slider and potentially one of the best curveballs in the game. He is more effective against righthanders (career .699 OPS against) and not effective against lefties (career .891 OPS against, but also .369 BABIP). His career numbers are a bit skewed because he has been both a starter and a reliever, but his future is in the bullpen. There were durability considerations (because of his weight) which made him report to the 2008 training camp several pounds lighter, but the real considerations are with his concentration and mental make up. Boof can pitch brilliantly but when he gets in trouble, he seems to fall apart (Over the Baggy has a great analysis of his pitching numbers, especially his performance with men on base.) When there is someone on first, Boof seems to be a different pitcher (career .956 OPS against in 313 PA), mainly because he looses the control of his breaking stuff and has to throw fastballs in the zone when he falls behind. His 9.5 K/9 and 3.22 K/BB career as a reliever in the major league level (despite the aforementioned problems), along with his devastating curve, project him as a dominating arm in the pen, maybe a future closer, if he deals with his concentration issues. Having a change of scenery and coaching on these respects might be what he needs, and unfortunately this situation smells a lot of the David Ortiz situation years ago...

Bonser was drafted in the 1st round of the 2000 draft by the San Fransisco Giants and came to the Twins in the AJ Pierzynski trade that also brought Joe Nathan and Fransisco Liriano to the team.

Good luck, Boof, but please not against the Twins.

Meet and greet Carl Pavano

This morning the Twins acquired Carl Pavano from the Cleveland Indians for a player to be named later (probably a minor leaguer).

A few days ago here, I identified Pavano as a real trade target for the Twins' rotation; however, I had reservations that the Twins will trade within the division. As I indicated in the above liked post, Pavano is one of the two potentially available pitchers (the other being Aaron Harang of the Cincinnati Reds) who is pitching much better than the average AL pitcher. His PE this season is 17.52, second to that of Scott Baker (24.72) among the current Twins' starters. His xPE (factoring in his high .328 BABIP) is a very solid 19.82.

Of, course, his ERA (5.37) does not tell the story. Looking at his FIP (which is flawed by better than ERA), his 4.26 FIP is ahead of both Glen Perkins' (4.63) and Fransisco Liriano's (4.78)

This season, Pavano is: 3-0, 1.93 ERA, 23.1 IP, 5 ER, 1 BB, 13K against the Tigers and 2-1, 2.42 ERA, 22.1 IP, 6 ER, 2 BB, 15K against the White Sox. Like Orlando Cabrera, he has post-season experience and a World Series ring. He was the main player in Boston's package to Montreal, which put Pedro Martinez in a Red Sox' uniform in 2003.

Let's look closer at the 33 year old version of Carl Pavano. He has 4 pitches: A fastball averaging 90.5 mph, which he throws about 60% of the time, A slider averaging 82.7 mph, which he throws about 16% of the time, a change up averaging 81.0 mph, which he throws about 24% of the time and an occasional split-finger fastball. What is making the 2009 version of Pavano more effective than the 2008 version?

• His velocity is higher in 2009. All his pitches are about 3 mph faster on average


• His least effective pitch is his fastball (-1.47 runs above average per 100; wFB/C), his slider (2.02 wSL/C) and change up (0.59 wCH/C) have been effective and been thrown often (40% of the time)


• He is striking out more batters (3.9 K/9 in 2008 vs. 6.3 K/9 in 2009) and walking fewer (2.6 BB/9 in 2008 vs. 1.3 BB/9 in 2009) resulting to a great 3.83 K/BB in 2009 (vs. just 1.50 K/BB in 2008)

To make room to the 25 man roster, the Twins optioned R.A. Dickey to Rochester. As a result of the trade either Fransisco Liriano or Glen Perkins will move to the pen. Based on their performance as starters this season, Perkins would be the logical choice to move to the pen; however, Liriano might be the emotional choice.

All in all it was a great move by Bill Smith that is helping fill a true need in the system. I expect at least another arm either from outside or inside the organization in the 25-man roster and the eventual move of Duensing and Keppel to the minors.

Pavano started against the Tigers last Sunday pitching for 8 innings allowing just one run on six hits. He struck out four and walked one. His turn is today. Will he take the mount against the team he recently dominated tonight?

He should, if not tonight, at least in this series.



Update: To make room for Pavano on the Twins 40-man roster, Boof Bonser moved to the 60 day DL, which means that any potential comeback this September is probably unlikely

Update:. The Twins' payroll responsibility for Carl Pavano:

From Cot's Baseball Contracts:

Base contract: 1 year, $1.5 M (about $600K left)

$5.3M in performance bonuses:

starts:
$0.1M each for 18, 20, 22;
$0.2M each for 24, 26, 28;
$0.25M for 30;
$0.3M for 32;
$0.35M each for 33, 34;
$0.4M for 35

He has 21 starts. If he gets to 32, the Twins will be responsible for $1.05 M

innings:
$0.1M each for 130, 140, 150;
$0.15M each for 160, 170;
$0.2M for 180;
$0.25M each for 190, 200, 210;
$0.3M for 215;
$0.4M for 225;
$0.5M for 235

He has 125.2 IP; based on projected 32 starts and his average 6 IP/start, that will give him 192 IP and the Twins will be responsible for another $1.05M

Total projected cost for the Twins: $2.7M

In honor of Boof

A couple of arthroscopic labrum and rotator cuff tear repair shots


this is a partial labrum tear:



and arthroscopic repair of the labrum:



here is a torn rotator cuff:



and here a repaired rotator cuff:



That's what went on with Boof Bonser today. He is out for the season.

Tuesday night game notes

• White Sox vs the Twins in the dome. Punto starts again at SS and batting 9th. Good to see Gomez back again and on the top of the lineup. I really do not understand the complaints about Gomez. At worse he projects like a Vince Coleman with more power and at best he projects like a Rickie Henderson; I'd take any place in between. He is the fastest player in the majors and he can make plays in the CF no other outfielder can make, included the (not so) dearly departed Torii Hunter.


• This team needs to score some runs for Boof soon. They scored a total of 7 runs in his 5 starts, a stat bad enough to make Boof run for the border for fourthmeal after each game. He looks like he gained back at least half of the 25 lbs he lost during the offseason. Regardless, he has 2 strikeouts, a semi-intentional walk and an inconsequential single in the 1st inning. His fastball touches 93 mph with decent movement and his cutter has a bite.


• Mauer has a 2 out triple in the first. The Morneau flies out. Boof cruises through the second. A couple of encouraging signs: Mauers triple in the first and Young's single on the second were hit in the gaps instead of the opposite hit. Young steals second. Lamb strikes out. Boof faces only 3 men in the 3rd, thanks to a great DP started by Morneau. I think that Morneau should be a serious candidate for a gold glove this season. Punto almost makes an error in the 4th but Boof gets out. 4 IP 4 H 4 Ks, 54 pitchers. So far so good


• Cuddyer leads off the bottom of the 4th with a double. Kubel hits a 2 run homer. Young has his second hit and second stolen base then goes to third on a throw error by AJP. Lamb brings him in with a sacrifice fly to deep center. Gomez has a couple of quality at bats fouling balls close to the zone and letting go breaking balls on the dirt. He had a 3-2 count, working it up from 0-2, in the fourth, resulting in a fly out to the center. Bonser has an 1-2-3 5th with a couple of strike outs (6 for the day). Unfortunately an 1-2-3 inning for the other side too. Floyd has thrown 88 pitches to Boof's 72. Another scoreless inning for Boof, another strike out. 7 total. 88 total pitches through 6.


• Homer to Crede and another strikeout for Boof. Top of 7th 3-1 Twins. Neshek has a hit and a strike out on top of the 8th; Reyes in to face Thomas. Reyes gets Thomas to fly out to left and Young doubles up the runner on the first base. Double play. Reyes retires 2 batters with 3 pitches. Great defensive plays by Harris and Gomez in the 9th, 1-2-3 inning for Nathan's 8th save. Twins win 3-1.


• Rochester came back from 3-0 to beat Pawtucket 9-3 at home, in a game where Humber was used as a reliever and was credited with the win.

Twins MVP: Bonser

Game Notes

• Big excitement over the Royals' powder blue uniforms (sans blue pants); I think that they are a step better than the Padres' UPS unis


• Gomez fouls out to 1st. Full count to Tolbert. Grounds out to 2B. Full count to Mauer. Ground out to second. 1-2-3 inning. Pop up to Tolbert, foul out to Morneau, walk, ground out to Harris. End of inning, 0-0. 17 pitches for Boof


• Morneau grounds out to the SS, Delmon grounds out to the pitcher, Kubel homers to the right field. 1-0 Twins. Harris grounds out to 3rd. 1-0 Twins. Fly out to Span, ground out to Tolbert, fly out to Gomez. End of 2 1-0 Twins


• Span flies out to center, Punto singles out to center, Gomez flies out to center, Tolbert grounds out to second. Boof walks the first batter he faces, sacrifice bunt to Boof, runner to 2nd. Fly out to Young. Error Tolbert (throw high and wide to 1st), man on 1st and 3rd. Strike out. End of 3, 1-0 Twins


• Mauer grounds out to 2nd. Morneau grounds out off Tomko's chin. Tomko looks hurt, stays in the game. Young grounds out to 3rd. 1-2-3 inning for Tomko. Fly out to Span. Fly out to Gomez. Strikeout. 1-2-3 inning for Boof. Total 65 pitches and a no hitter. Twins 1-0 after 4


• Kubel flies out to left on the first pitch. Harris singles to right. Span strikes out in 3 pitches. Punto 3-2, walks. Gomez flies out to right. Boof in. Strikeout, single to left, strikeout, hit to second, men on 1st and 2nd. Fly out to Gomez. 3 outs, no hitter broken end of 5, Twins 1-0. 78 pitches for Bonser.


• Tolbert grounds out to the pitcher. Mauer grounds out to 2nd for the third time in the game. Morneau reaches on a SS error. Young forces Morneau out to the SS. Twins still up 1-0. Hopefully another inning or two from Boof, then Ryes/Neshek and Nathan. Fly out to Gomez. Single to left. Fly out to Gomez. Pop up to Tolbert. End of 6, Twins 1-0. Pitch count 89. Maybe one more inning.


• Kubel gets an infield single to second. Harris singles to right on a hit and run. Kubel to 3rd no outs. Span singles up the middle, Kubel in, Harris to 2nd. Twins 2-0, pitching change. Ramon Ramirez in to face Punto. Tomko bangs stuff in the bullpen. Punto bunts for a hit. No outs. Gomez up. Big swing 0-1, another 0-2, and another; strikeout. Where is the bunt signal? Pitching change lefty Mahay in. Tolbert swinging strike, then infield fly pop up to shortstop. Strike 1 looking to Mauer, 1-1 low, check swing strike 1-2. Foul. Takes a called third strike. If the Twins don't win this, the goat should be Gardy who did not make Gomez bunt with the bases loaded and no outs. Guerrier in, 0-2, foul, strike out. Fly out to Delmon. Infield single to Tolbert. Another lefty up, where is Reyes? Ground out to Tolbert. End of 7, 2-0 Twins.


• Morneau strikes out looking. Delmon singles to center. Borderline balk move 4 throws to 1st. Caught stealing, questionable play. Kubel strikes out. Neshek in. Strikeout. Ground out to Morneau. Strikeout. Great outing by Neshek. 1-2-3. End of 8, Twins up 2-0


• Nunez in to pitch. Harris grounds out to short. Span singles to right. Punto strikes out. Gomez forces out at second. Bottom of the 9th Nathan up. Ground out to Punto. Single to center. Double play, Punto to Harris to Morneau. Twins win 2-0.

Twins MVP: Bonser

Alright, I don't want to nag...

...but this is totally unacceptable.

To quote (Gardenhire talking about Liriano): "But it has to continue. If he stays flat and stays about the same with his location and he's throwing the ball all over the place, then we'll extend [the Minor League stint] out. It's up to him now to keep elevating [his game]."

Gardy was there in Bosner's outing this year
Gardy was there in Bass' 2 outings this year
Gardy was there in Rincon's 2 outings this year

They were throwing the ball over the place; did he make similar comments?

Gardenhire has been seen as an overachieving manager of an overachieving team, given a free ride for several years and never held accountable for his shortcomings, including having dismal postseasons, underachieving last year, alienating one of the best hitters in baseball (Ortiz), being on the verge of alienating one of the best pitchers in the game (Liriano), refusing to understand that it is the 21st century and people from different cultures might have different needs & refusing to communicate with his latin players (I couldn't understand a word he was saying so I took him out of the game re: Gomez or We don't really know about what he did down in the Dominican re: Liriano), making bad decisions about rosters (Punto, Hockin, Rabe, Garett Jones etc) and managing the game... etc... etc... etc...

All I am saying is that the Twins have a chance to compete this year. If they don't, Gardenhire and his staff should be held accountable and take a hike.

[/end rant]

Some pitching-style comparisons, projected rotation for next week and worthless tidbits

Comparing the current Twins' young pitchers with previous Twins' pitchers based on their pitching styles and pitch arsenal:

Baker - Erickson
Bonser - Blyleven
Liriano - Viola
Slowey - Radke

(edit after the recent Liriano developments)_

3/31 LAA - Hernandez
4/1 LAA - Bonser
4/2 LAA - Blackburn
4/3 LAA - Slowey
4/4 KC - Baker
4/5 KC - Hernandez
4/6 KC - Bonser
4/7 @CHW - Slowey??

Just caught the 10th inning of the Cubs-Brewers game on MLB.tv and I really dig the new Brewers uniforms... Almost look like a batting practice jersey, blue with sharp gold lines underneath the arms. Really nice...

supplement about pitching in 2007

Previously I discussed that the loss of Santana could be not as big as it seems in terms of his 2007 performance. Here is a list of all the 2007 starters with the record of games that the team won or lost when they were the starting pitchers

Slowey 7-4
Baker 13-11
Santana 16-16 *
Bonser 14-16
Garza 7-8 *
Silva 15-18 *
Ortiz 4-6 *
Ponson 2-5 *

The ones with asterisks are no longer with the team. In addition, the Diamondbacks were 16-17 in games that Livan Hernandez started (which would potentially put him under Santana in that list). The Twins were 10-4 in games Liriano started in 2006.

If we project 33 starts for 4 starters and 32 starts for the fifth, assuming that the team will perform similarly as last year, we'd have

Liriano 22-10
Slowey 21-12
Baker 18-15
Bonser 16-17
Hernandez 16-17

and total for the team 93-69. A bit of scrutiny about these assumptions and further refinement

• Liriano most likely would not be in his 2006 form, so let's give him 75% of 2006


• Hernandez is going from the NL to the AL, so let's give him 75% of 2007


• Bonser, Baker have improved, so let's give them 115% of 2007

The refined results:

Slowey 21-12
Baker 21-12
Bonser 18-15
Liriano 17-15
Hernandez 12-21

resulting to a team record of 89-73 (which is identical to that of the calculation based on close games lost last year, a few posts earlier)


Interested edit:

The ESPN projections have the Twins with a record of 86-76 and project Bonser at only 8 wins. The Baseball think factory's Zips projection (you need to do some work to find Livan Hernandez's numbers), has the Twins with 92 wins...

Why do I think that the Twins can win this year? Part II 2007 retrospect: The Santana factor

Johan Santana last year won 15 and lost 13 games. Would he be missed this year?

Here is a list of the 2007 games in which the Twins won when Santana was the starting pitcher

4/2 BAL 7-4
4/8 @CHW 3-1 *
4/19 @SEA 6-5
5/5 BOS 2-1 *
5/22 @TEX 7-1
5/28 CWS 10-4
6/19 @NYM 9-0
6/24 @FLA 7-4
6/29 @DET 11-1
7/4 @NYY 6-2
7/14 @OAK 5-3
7/28 @CLE 3-2 *
8/8 @KCR 11-4
8/19 TEX 1-0*
8/24 @BAL 7-4
9/9 @CHW 5-2

So only in 4 of these wins (25% noted with asterisks above), the team scored fewer than 5 runs. In all 16 games the Twins won when Santana started, the team allowed an average of 2.38 runs per game

Let's look at the teams wins in games that Bonser, Baker and Slowey started in 2007.

4/3 BAL 3-2 Bonser *
4/21 @KCR 7-5 Bonser
4/26 KCR 1-0 Bonser *
5/8 CHW 7-4 Bonser
5/13 DET 16-4 Bonser
5/19 @MIL 8-1 Bonser *
5/23 @TEX 5-3 Bonser
5/29 CHW 9-2 Bonser
6/10 WSN 6-3 Bonser
7/15 OAK 4-3 Bonser *
8/23 @BAL 5-2 Bonser
9/10 @KCR 4-2 Bonser *
9/27 @BOS 5-4 BOnser

5/19 @MIL 5-2 Baker
5/25 TOR 4-3 Baker *
5/30 CHW 7-6 Baker
6/20 @NYM 6-2 Baker
6/26 TOR 2-1 Baker *
7/6 @CHW 20-14 Baker
7/12 OAK 6-2 Baker
7/30 KCR 3-1 Baker *
8/5 CLE 1-0 Baker *
8/26 @BAL 11-3 Baker
8/15 @SEA 6-1 Baker
8/31 KCR 5-0 Baker
9/11 @KCR 6-3 Baker

6/1 @OAK 3-2 Slowey*
6/12 ATL 7-3 Slowey
6/17 MIL 10-9 Slowey
6/30 @DET 8-5 Slowey
9/17 TEX 5-4 Slowey
6/6 @LAA 8-5 Slowey
9/23 CHW 7-1 Slowey

From the team's 13 wins in games that Bonser started, in 5 (38.4%) the team scored fewer that 5 runs. The team allowed an average of 2.69 runs per game, in games the Twins won with Bonser as the starting pitcher

From the team's 13 wins in games that Baker started, in 4 (30.8%) the team scored fewer that 5 runs. The team allowed an average of 2.77 runs per game (if we disregard the 7/6 game, the number drops to a very impressive 1.83), in games the Twins won with Baker as the starting pitcher

From the team's 7 wins in games that Slowey started, in 1 (14.3%) the team scored fewer that 5 runs. The team allowed an average of 4.14 runs per game, in games the Twins won with Slowey as the starting pitcher

Thus, arguably Baker and Bonser could potentially offset the loss of Santana, comparatively to 2007.