Showing posts with label Joe Vavra. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Joe Vavra. Show all posts

6/4/09

Fixing Delmon Young

A lot of the posts in this blog have been about analysis of numbers. I know that spreadsheets, graphs, math and statistic can really give people a headache sometimes, so I am departing today from all of these and going back to something I used to love doing when I was a kid: Do you remember in the quiz sections of the newspaper or in the back side of a place mat (the ones you draw on with crayons to keep quiet when waiting for food to come in a diner) the quizzes that had two similar pictures side by size and asked you to find 5 or 10 differences and circle them? This is what this is all about, and Delmon Young.

One of the biggest criticisms of Delmon Young is that Delmon is a singles hitter and will never develop any power. I tried to answer some of this with math and analysis here last month, but let's play this game of looking at pictures and finding differences.

We'll make it more interesting than that: We'll look at pictures of swings by successful hitters and pictures of swings by Delmon to see whether there might be something obvious:

Let's start with the successful hitters:

Some righties:


Kibry Puckett:


Mike Schmidt:


Albert Pujols:


Alex Rodriguez:


Mickey Mantle:


and some lefties:

Mickey Mantle again:


Darryl Strawberry:


Ted Williams:


Joe Mauer:


Here are some Delmon Young swings:







Do you see an obvious difference between Delmon Young's swing and those of the other players'?

Here is some help: Draw an imaginary line from the base of the batter's neck and see where and whether it meets the player's tailbone during the swing.

Here is a visual comparing two of the above swings at the same point of the swing, with that line drawn:



As you can see, Ted Williams' (and all those above players) has his neck aligned with his tailbone, while Delmon's neck is way back aligned with the ground at about his back leg.

This is very unbalanced. One cannot generate any power this way. Actually one would be glad not to fall on his butt after such a swing. This indicates a top body and lower body imbalance and needs to be fixed for Young to be successfully hitting the ball far. (I could also talk about squaring one's shoulders but this is a different story and somewhat controversial)

Do you know who else from the Twins' team swings like this?



(Actually, in addition to Brian Buscher pictured above, Nick Punto and Mike Redmond also swing off-balance, with the known results)

Google images of swings of your favorite players and compare them to Delmon's or watch closely next time players hit (but static images are better, just because swings are too fast)

This is so obvious that Vavra has to do something here. I suspect that he sees that, since it is extremely obvious. If he doesn't (and at least four of his hitters swing like that), does he need to be a hitting coach?

Alternatively, the Twins should get this guy for their hitting coach. (The previous link is for a 15 minute instructional video on swinging by one of the best hitters and now coaches in the game of baseball; highly recommended to everyone who wants to look at the art of hitting. Have a look at it and then next time you watch the Twins have a look at Twins' players at the plate)

What do you think?

4/8/08

A bit of batting research

A frequently made statement is that the Twins failures in the Gardenhire era are partly due to the Twins hitting philosophy of slapping the ball to the opposite field advancing the runners instead of slugging away.

To test this hypothesis I looked at the slugging% of players who were with the Twins in the Gardenhire era and then joined other teams. I am comparing their SLG% their last year with the Twins with those of their first year with another team and 3 years removed from the Twins. If the hypothesis is correct there will be a significant rise in SLG % when left the Twins at least by 3 years. The list is for 150AB/year minimum.

Here is the data:

Batter SLG@MIN SLG@MIN+1 SLG@MIN+3

David Ortiz .500 .592 .604
Jacque Jones .438 .499 N/A (2008)
Todd Walker .397 .459 .431
C Guzman .384 .314 .446
Dustan Mohr .399 .437 <150AB but .466 MIN+2
Bobby Kielty .400 .370 .441
D. Mientk .363 .407 .440
*AJ Pierzynski .464 .410 .436
Matt Lawton .415 .399 .421
Brian Buchanan .415 .455 <150AB
Casey Blake .250 .411 .438 (less than 150AB @MIN)
*Corey Coskie .495 .398 out of baseball
Shannon Steward .368 .394 N/A (2009)
Chris Gomez .354 .346 .439
Javier Valentin .381 .356 .520



From the 15 players listed the only 2 that do not follow this hypothesis are AJ Pierzynski and Corey Coskie (and Corey was out of baseball at the second data point.) How big is the difference? The average player including Coskie & Pierzynksi, raised their slugging percentage by 16 base points they year after they left the Twins and by 65 base points the third year away from the Twins organization and hitting philosophy.

I think that the data certainly supports this hypothesis...

Part 2: looking at the newcomers into the Twins organization

Here is the list for the players who came into the Twins organization from others during this era. I am comparing their SLG% the year before joined the Twins with those of their first 2 years with the Twins. If the hypothesis is correct there will be a significant drop in SLG % when join the Twins at least by 2 years. The list is for 150AB/year minimum. The sample size is smaller because the Twins do not usually bring established players into the organization:


Batter SLG@MIN-1 SLG@MIN SLG@MIN2

Shannon Steward .459 .447 .388
Juan Castro .378 .386 .308
Luis Castillo .374 .370 .352
Rondell White .489 .365 .321 (<150AB)
Tony Batista .455 .388 N/A (not with the Twins)
Jeff Cirillo .414 .327 N/A (not with the Twins)


Clearly, the data show that if not by the first, by the second year a player from another batting philosophy joins the Twins, his slugging % will suffer measurably.

The data speak... It is time for a change in this philosophy