Santana 16-16 *
Garza 7-8 *
Silva 15-18 *
Ortiz 4-6 *
Ponson 2-5 *
The ones with asterisks are no longer with the team. In addition, the Diamondbacks were 16-17 in games that Livan Hernandez started (which would potentially put him under Santana in that list). The Twins were 10-4 in games Liriano started in 2006.
If we project 33 starts for 4 starters and 32 starts for the fifth, assuming that the team will perform similarly as last year, we'd have
and total for the team 93-69. A bit of scrutiny about these assumptions and further refinement
- Liriano most likely would not be in his 2006 form, so let's give him 75% of 2006
- Hernandez is going from the NL to the AL, so let's give him 75% of 2007
- Bonser, Baker have improved, so let's give them 115% of 2007
The refined results:
resulting to a team record of 89-73 (which is identical to that of the calculation based on close games lost last year, a few posts earlier)
The ESPN projections have the Twins with a record of 86-76 and project Bonser at only 8 wins. The Baseball think factory's Zips projection (you need to do some work to find Livan Hernandez's numbers), has the Twins with 92 wins...