Twins Players of the Week

This is the third installment in this series. You can find all of them here in reverse chronological order. I will be doing these approximately weekly or at the end of every 2 series.  

In the last 2 series against the Rays and Red Sox the Twins as a team hit an underpowered .241/.326/.310 with 1 HR and scored 21 runs. This helped them finish only 1-5 in these series.  

The Twins Hitter of the Week was: 

Joe Mauer 

 

.409/.500/.409 9 H, 4 RBI, 2 R in 26 plate appearances  

As with the hitting, the Twins' pitching in the last 2 series was equally responsible for their 1-5 record against the Rays and the Red Sox. As a team, the Twins pitched to a 6.23 ERA, allowing 58 hits (including 9 home runs, 11 doubles and a triple,) 38 Runs (all but 2 earned) in 52 innings, facing 224 batters. They threw 891 total pitches and 553 of them were strikes. The walked 17 and struck out 40. This results in a 1.44 WHIP, 6.9 K/9 and 2.4 K/BB.  

The Twins' Pitcher of the Week was:  

Anthony Swarzak

   
2 Games, 5 IP, 0 R, 2 H, 0 BB, 4K

Extending Joe Mauer: looking at the financial context

An extension to Joe Mauer, who is scheduled to become a free agent after the 2010 season is deemed a priority for this team. However, the Twins have other players as well who will demand salary raises at this point, because there are arbitration-eligible. Here is a list of the arbitration-eligible and free agents (in parenthesis the money that would be freed by not re-signing them) for the Minnesota Twins after the 2009 and 2010 seasons. With trading season ahead, this might be a core of players around whom the Twins will look to build a trade.

After the 2009 season:

Free Agents:

Luis Ayala ($1.3M+)
Joe Crede ($2.3M+)
Mike Redmond ($950K)

Arbitration Eligible:

Boof Bonser
Jesse Crain
Carlos Gomez (super 2)
Matt Guerrier
Fransisco Liriano
Pat Neshek
Brendan Harris
Glen Perkins (super 2)
Delmon Young


After the 2010 season:

Free Agents:

Jesse Crain ($1.7M+)
Mike Cuddyer (team option) ($9.4M)
Matt Guerrier ($1.5M+)
Jason Kubel (team option) ($4.1M)
Joe Mauer
Nick Punto (team option) ($4M)

Arbitration Eligible:

Nick Blackburn
Boof Bonser
Brian Buscher
Alexi Casilla
Carlos Gomez
Fransisco Liriano
Pat Neshek
Brendan Harris
Glen Perkins
Kevin Slowey
Matt Tolbert
Delmon Young

Additional money that will come off the payroll after the 2009 season is the $2.6M the Twins are paying Mike Lamb. Furthermore, Phillip Humber is paid $1.15M this season (thanks to a major league contract signed by the Mets). Releasing him will alleviate that cost

The source of most information for his was Cot's Baseball Contracts.

Fixing Delmon Young

A lot of the posts in this blog have been about analysis of numbers. I know that spreadsheets, graphs, math and statistic can really give people a headache sometimes, so I am departing today from all of these and going back to something I used to love doing when I was a kid: Do you remember in the quiz sections of the newspaper or in the back side of a place mat (the ones you draw on with crayons to keep quiet when waiting for food to come in a diner) the quizzes that had two similar pictures side by size and asked you to find 5 or 10 differences and circle them? This is what this is all about, and Delmon Young.

One of the biggest criticisms of Delmon Young is that Delmon is a singles hitter and will never develop any power. I tried to answer some of this with math and analysis here last month, but let's play this game of looking at pictures and finding differences.

We'll make it more interesting than that: We'll look at pictures of swings by successful hitters and pictures of swings by Delmon to see whether there might be something obvious:

Let's start with the successful hitters:

Some righties:


Kibry Puckett:


Mike Schmidt:


Albert Pujols:


Alex Rodriguez:


Mickey Mantle:


and some lefties:

Mickey Mantle again:


Darryl Strawberry:


Ted Williams:


Joe Mauer:


Here are some Delmon Young swings:







Do you see an obvious difference between Delmon Young's swing and those of the other players'?

Here is some help: Draw an imaginary line from the base of the batter's neck and see where and whether it meets the player's tailbone during the swing.

Here is a visual comparing two of the above swings at the same point of the swing, with that line drawn:



As you can see, Ted Williams' (and all those above players) has his neck aligned with his tailbone, while Delmon's neck is way back aligned with the ground at about his back leg.

This is very unbalanced. One cannot generate any power this way. Actually one would be glad not to fall on his butt after such a swing. This indicates a top body and lower body imbalance and needs to be fixed for Young to be successfully hitting the ball far. (I could also talk about squaring one's shoulders but this is a different story and somewhat controversial)

Do you know who else from the Twins' team swings like this?



(Actually, in addition to Brian Buscher pictured above, Nick Punto and Mike Redmond also swing off-balance, with the known results)

Google images of swings of your favorite players and compare them to Delmon's or watch closely next time players hit (but static images are better, just because swings are too fast)

This is so obvious that Vavra has to do something here. I suspect that he sees that, since it is extremely obvious. If he doesn't (and at least four of his hitters swing like that), does he need to be a hitting coach?

Alternatively, the Twins should get this guy for their hitting coach. (The previous link is for a 15 minute instructional video on swinging by one of the best hitters and now coaches in the game of baseball; highly recommended to everyone who wants to look at the art of hitting. Have a look at it and then next time you watch the Twins have a look at Twins' players at the plate)

What do you think?

2009 MLB draft and a couple of notes

The 2009 Amateur MLB draft is fast approaching. The Rule 4 Draft, or the First-Year Player Draft (all those 3 things are synonyms), includes players who are residents of the U.S., Canada and U.S. territories such as Puerto Rico, U.S. Virgin Islands, American Samoa, Guam, Northern Mariana Islands and Minor Outlying Islands. Residents of other countries are not subject to the Rule 4 Draft, but are signed as free agents either when they are young (the majority of Latin American, European, African and Australian players) or when are established (the majority of Japanese players.) Free agents have the ability to negotiate with each team and actually, depending on the perceived value of a player, induce a bidding war for their services. Thus, a lot of Cuban refugees do not take residence in the U.S. or a territory, so they will not be subjected to the amateur draft, but take residence in a Latin American country like Bolivia or Mexico. The minor league draft is a way for organizations to restock their systems.

The NFL Draft is widely publicized and followed, but this is not true for the MLB Draft. Regardless, there are mock 1st round MLB drafts out there from various sources. Here are the calls for the Twins 1st pick this weekend from various places:

mlb outsider: Bobby Borchering, HS (3B) (pick made by Seth Stohs)

Sports2debate: Bobby Borchering, HS (3B)

Flagrant Fouls Kentrail Davis, Tennessee (OF)

Project Prospect: Tyler Skaggs, HS (LHP)

Huffington Post: James Paxton, Kentucky (LHP)

Prospect Insider: Chad James, Kentucky (LHP)

MyMLBdraft.com: Joivanni Mier, HS, SS

Sporting News (M Huang): Jared Mitchell, LSU (OF)

Minor League Ball: Bobby Borchering, HS (3B)

Baseball Draft Report: Jared Mitchell, LSU (OF)

Morisato's Blog: Max Stassi, HS (C)

USCTrojans31: Jacob Turner, HS (RHP)

The Twins usually pick the best talent available, but I find it difficult for them to pick a catcher or an outfielder or a RHP, due to large organization depths in this area. There is some depth in corner infield (esp. on first base) and I think it might be unlikely to pick Bobby Borchering who projects more as a first baseman in the bigs. The needs of the Twins' system are in middle infield and Left hand starting pitching (there are only 9-10 LHS in the whole organization and all of them in all levels, excluding those in extending spring training, are struggling more or less this season). So I believe that their biggest need is a Left Handed Starting Pitcher. From the 94 total pitchers in the Twins' system (including all minor leagues, DSL and EST), there are only 19 LHP, counting both starters and relievers There are a couple of them listed in the above mock drafts, but here is a list of the top LHP in the draft according to Baseball Beginnings. The links on their names go to scouting reports about those pitchers and their overall potential grade from the same report is in parenthesis next to their names.

Tyler Matzek (54)

Andrew Oliver (53)

Tyler Skaggs (53)

Tyler Lyons (50)

You can find another report on Tyler Marzak as well as on Matt Purke (another LHP) here at Cyberscouting. They are both within their top 5 high school talent list. Another LHP who made their top 30 high school talent list is Beau Wright.

Other LHP of note include:

Mike Minor, a scouting report is here

Bryan Morgado, who looks like he is pitching well, a year after Tommy John surgery,

his teammate at Tennessee, Nick Hernandez (here is a video interview),

Brandon Belt who was selected in the 11th round of both 2007 (Boston) and 2008 (Atlanta) drafts, but elected to return to college here is a scouting report,

James Paxton, a Scott Boras' client,

Rex Brothers, a High School Senior from Ft. Myers, FL; scouting report here

Chad James; you can find an interview here

Matt Purke; you can find a scouting report here and another one here

Here is a breakdown of the four high school lefties (Tyler Matzek, Matt Purke, Chad James and Tyler Skaggs) by mlb.com with nice videos.

Additional LHP that probably belong to the later rounds and I assume that at least a couple will be wearing a Twins' unifrom include:

Paul Applebee
Buddy Baumann
Mike Belfore
Gavin Brooks
Jordan Cooper
Neal Davis
Jeff Dennis
Robbie Erlin
Lance Hoge
David Holmberg
Garrett Hughes
Jordan John
Brian Johnson
Donnie Joseph
Tyler Kehrer
Dallas Keuchel
Nick Kirk
Ian Krol
Justin Marks
Wes Musick
Matt Packer
John Pokomy
Miers Quigley (drafted in the 36th round of the 2008 draft by the Twins)
Brooks Raley
Steven Rodriquez
Chris Rusin
Patrick Schuster
Sam Selman
Joe Serafin
Kraig Sitton
Travis Smink
Josh Spence
Matt Way
Austin Woods
Mikey Walkusky

Will the Twins select one of the aforementioned with their first round pick? It is probable, and if not with their first pick, I expect one of these pitchers to become a Twin either with the supplemental pick or their 2nd round pick.

One another note and completely different subject, Cy Morong, of Cybermetrics, posted a great article yesterday suggesting that the Twins' M&M boys' May of 2009 was statistically better than the Mantle & Maris' July of 1961. A must read for any Twins' fan

On yet another note, Seth Stohs invited me to participate last night in his weekly podcast. You can listen online or download it here. Seth interviewed Twins' prospects Evan Bigley and Johnathan Walterbury and at the end, Seth and I talked Twins baseball, including the minors, Liriano, Twins' infield and outfield and such.

The Numbers Game

When Joe Mauer returns, as early as a week from today, a spot should open on the 25-man roster to accommodate him. I think that there are three potential candidates for that spot, in alphabetical order: Brian Buscher, Jose Morales and Micheal Redmond.

Here is how they have been performing this season:

Brian Buscher: 18 PA, .200/.333/.333 (.667 OPS). He swung at 37.5% percent of the pitches he faced, making contact on 66.7% of those, so he made contact with 25% of the pitches he saw

Jose Morales: 26 PA .250/.308/.333 (.641 OPS). He swung at 56.3% percent of the pitches he faced, making contact on 81.6% of those, so he made contact with 45.9% of the pitches he saw

Mike Redmond: 31 PA .214/.290/.250 (.540 OPS.) He swung at 41.1% percent of the pitches he faced, making contact on 89.7% of those, so he made contact with 36.9% of the pitches he saw


As far as plate performance goes, Morales has been making more contact with the ball than Redmond and Redmond has been making more contact with the ball than Buscher. One might argue that it is a small sample size, but Buscher's career contact% on all pitches he saw is 35.3% far bellow Morales' and still below Redmond's.

At this point, Morales and Buscher are playing at replacement level, Redmond below replacement level.

Redmond brings veteran leadership and clubhouse presence. Morales brings a live bat, upside, a spanish-speaking catcher who can communicate with Ayala, Liriano, Mijares and Morillo better than Redmond or Mauer. He is a switch hitter. Buscher brings in a left hand bat from the bench. Both Morales and Buscher still have minor league options.

Redmond and Morales are adequate defensively. They will not throw runners out but will not make errors. Buscher is a defensive liability who does not belong on the field in a major league stadium.

There is more than one way to make that decision and it will be a hard decision to make, since there are advantages and disadvantages to all 3. I think that Morales' bat and the fact that is adequate defensively as a catcher, as well as Redmond's veteran leadership should be chosen over Buscher's LH bat off the bench. Morales has a better LH bat off the bench (as a LH hitter he is batting .300/.333/.400, .733 OPS in 21 PA) than Buscher, anyways, and he is more versatile. If I were to rank the 3 in order of who should stay, it would be: Morales, Redmond, Buscher.

What do you think? Feel free to comment and vote on the poll at the upper left hand side of the blog.

How much will Mauer's absence cost the Twins?

A couple of weeks ago, I calculated that the Twins will win 90 games this season. This was with Mauer healthy and playing for 150 games. Apparently, Mauer will not be ready for opening day. How much will this cost the Twins in wins? Aaron Gleeman suggested that it will cost the Twins 3-4 wins for the season. My initial assumption when I calculated that the Twins will win 90 was that Mauer will play 150 games. When I reduce the number of games to 100 and increase Redmond's games by 50 and I plug it into my spreadsheet to calculate the wins expected based on team OPS and the sum of individual WAR, the total team wins drop by just one. The wins based on the pitching calculations do not change.

JUST ONE WIN

(no need to sell those season tickets yet... because that will still be more than enough margin for the Twins to win the Central. Those predictions are coming up the last week of Spring Training.)

Not your average Joes…

In the last six months, the American nation living rooms heard of Joe the plumber and Joe six-pack, who were introduced as iconic images during the 2008 U.S. Presidential campaign, carrying the hope of victory on their shoulders for the candidates who iconized them. This season, a lot of the hopes of victory for the Twins’ nation will be carried by the backs, arms and shoulders of three Joes: Joe Mauer, Joe Nathan and the newest Joe, Joe Crede.

A potential cause for concern is the possibility that these backs and shoulders might not be ready to bear the weight of everyday play by opening day and through out the season: Joe Crede comes into the season after back to back back surgeries. Joe Mauer had kidney surgery during the off-season and his back is still sore enough not to allow him to take the field so far this spring. Joe Nathan was scratched from the U.S. World Baseball Classic team, because of discomfort in his right (throwing) shoulder (AC) joint.

Even though Joe Nathan’s injury might be the least serious of the three (there are recent reports that he threw 25 pitches Thursday with no pain), he is the oldest of the 3 and the most likely to decline. Hopefully that will not happen before he finishes his contract with the Twins.

I have discussed Joe Crede’s back situation ad noseum here. So far this spring there has not been a single report of pain or discomfort in his back either batting or playing on the field. He did make a diving play this week and Gardenhire promptly reported that he felt no pain. On the other hand, his bat (other than a double against Puerto Rico, in an exhibition game) has been fairly silent. Lets hope that this is just a timing issue and not the silence of the Lamb.

Joe Mauer’s situation has been a bit more worrisome (at least to me), mainly because the reports seem to be a bit “template-based”. He had surgery to repair a kidney constriction that he had all his life. That much we know. To do that, a surgeon goes threw ones back or abdomen, cuts through muscle and takes care of the kidney. The kidney is not an issue with Mauer’s ability to play (if corrected and healed), the muscle healing is. All it was reported was that “Mauer is looking to be 100% by opening day” and (a couple days ago) “Mauer had a small setback”. I really do not like that “setback” noun, because it is non-specific. Yes, the HIPAA (Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act) applies to Joe Mauer as much as it to Joe Schmoe, but I am sure that fans are questioning (at least this one is) the nature of the “setback”. Was it something kidney-related (blood in the potty; sorry if this is too graphic) or was it something muscle-related? I have been trying to get information left and right these days about the nature of Mauer’s baseball-related ailment and it is just not there. Here is a simple question: How exactly is Mauer unable to play? I assume that he has problems getting to the crouch position, since that puts stress into the couple of muscles affected by the procedure (regardless whether it was through the back or abdomen) I’ve never heard a single report on (or got answers to questions about) whether he can swing a bat off a tee (edit, there was one a few hours ago, but you got to dig deep. And yes he can swing off a tee, which is extremely good news). I just wish Joe the best and I hope that he is healthy soon.

The ’87 Twins had their killer Gs (Gladden, Gaetti, Gagne.) These ’09 Twins are poised to be the killer J’s even if the Joes are not 100%. In the 40-man roster there are:

3 Jasons, Kubel, Jones and Pridie
2 José’s, Mijares and Morales, and
1 Justin (who sometimes is mistaken for a Jason,) Morneau

This makes me confident.

This post has been brought to you by the letter J and the number 90, which is how many wins I project for the Minnesota Twins for the 2009 season (more on that next week)

Thursday game notes

• KC, Detroit and Cleveland lost, but so did the Twins. They are still in first place and readying up for a four game series in the Dome with Boston.


• Slowey pitched well for most of the game, giving up 3 runs in 5 innings. Neshek left the game with an apparent elbow injury that I hope is minor. Interesting play in the sixth inning: runners on 1st and 2nd for the Sox with no outs, Guerrier pitching, Konerko on the plate. 3-1 the count, Konerko swings on a pitch, the home plate umpire is frozen, everyone is frozen, the runners advance, Guerrier runs around as a madman tagging the runners, Mauer calls for a review from the 1B ump who says its a strike. A this point the home plate ump allows the runners to advance, Gardy gets ejected for arguing and the blow up doll clown in the Sox dugout is bursting out laughing mimicking Guerrier's tagging the runners. Lousy job for an ump who does not deserve the MLB paycheck and an even lousier job for a commissioner that can stand that fan-bashing garbage in the Sox dugout in a professional sport. If I remember correctly a few years ago Frank Robinson was appointed as a watchdog and was throwing out 15 game suspension for spiting out gum the wrong way. Where is that office when the integrity of the game and its maturity is questioned?


• The bats were silent today, like in most of the day games away from the dome


• Looking forward to the Boston series

Twins MVP: Mauer

Game notes

• Night game at Chicago after an off-day with the Twins leading the Sox with 2 games for the division lead. Detroit is playing Boston, Cleveland in New York (both losing early) and KC is hosting the Angels. Blackburn vs Floyd are the starting pitchers.


• Gomez worked a full count in the first inning, then lines out. Harris works a walk and so does Mauer. Morneau beats a double play, then Cuddyer forces him out in second. The first 2 men aboard with a gift walk by the home plate umpire and a single. Great leaping catch by Gomez to retire Thome and a great running catch by Gomez to retire Conerko and freeze the runner at third. Hit, 2 runners in. Strikeout. Sox up 2-0, both runs gifted by the umpire... In the day that there is technology to determine whether a pitch is a ball or a strike, there is no need for home plate umpires who can affect the outcome of games by one bad ball. It is time that MLB takes the human factor out of the equation at home plate


• Kubel grounds out through the middle in a play that could have been an infield hit if he were faster. Young works a full count, then flies out to the right field. Lamb fouls out. Floyd has been pitching outside to the righties and inside to the lefties, which is a hard way to make a living against the Twins. Groundout, single just under the diving Morneau's glove, pitch out on a hit and run, they got him. Groundout. End of 2, 2-0 Sox; 26 pitches for Blackburn (38 for Floyd)


• Everett grounds out to the SS, Gomez strikes out on a foul bunt with 2 strikes. Harris grounds out. Meanwhile Ortiz and Ramirez hit back-to-back home runs off 2 different Detroit pitchers making the score 5-0 Boston in that game. Lamb makes a great play to get Cabrera out on a bunt. Fly out to Gomez. Thome walks (another gift by the home plate umpire). Pop up. End of 3. Sox 2-0


• Mauer walks, Morneau reaches on an error by the left fielder. Cuddyer flies out, Mauer to 3rd; 1 out. Kubel sacrifice fly to shallow center, Mauer scores. Young forces Morneau out at second. Walk. Hit. Men on 1st and 2nd with no outs for the Sox. Force out at second, runners at the corners 1 out. Swisher steps on Blackburn's foot at first base to break the douple play and takes a funky tumble. Both players are ok. Fly out to Young, great running catch. Runner at 3rd is frozen. 2 outs. Single, a run in. Fly out to Gomez. End of 4. 3-1 Sox


• Lamb grounds out to first. Everett flies out to left. Gomez grounds out to the shortstop. Great play by Young to retire Quentin. Another set of bad calls by the home plate umpire costs Blackburn several pitches. He should have been struck out earlier at the AB. Fly out to Gomez. Fly out to Gomez. 1-2-3 inning. Sox 3-1


• Harris pops out to second, Mauer flies out to center, so does Morneau. HR to the opposite field for Dye; the next 3 batters retired. End of 6, 4-1 Sox


• Cuddyer pops up to the second baseman, Kubel strikes out (he needs to sit for a game or 2...). Young Strikes out. Floyd has a no-hitter after 7 (92 pitches). Crain in for the Twins. Hit. Base hit and error by Lamb and a fan interference, base hit, 2 more runs in. Still nobody out. Pop up out at foul ground to Morneau. Caught stealing by Mauer, 2 out. Walk. Ground out. End of 7, Sox 6-1


• Lamb flies out to center. Everett flies out to center. Gomez grounds out to short. No hitter still on with 99 total pitches for Floyd. Korecky in to pitch. Double. Ground out to Harris, runner at 3rd, one out. Double, another run in. Another misserable job of ball and strike calling at that AB. Strikeout. Fly out to Gomez. End of 8, Sox 7-1


• Harris strikes out looking on a ball outside. Mauer doubles to left center to break up the no hitter. Pitching change. Jenks in. Way to take a complete game shutout off your pitcher, Ozzie. Morneau grounds out to second. Cuddyer strikes out swinging. Game over, Twins lose, but still in 1st place.


• Is this team going to be a clone of the '87 team as far as home and road records?

Twins MVP: Mauer

Notes & thoughts from today - early edition

4-5 loss, today; 1-3 for the season, 3rd place overall

Kubel hit the 1st HR of the season (upper decker over the baggie on a high fastball by Spier.) Gomez got the hang of laying down a band on turf. That could be a great weapon this year for him. Harris made another couple of great plays this game. I don't think that there is a loss on D when he is in. Good to see Harris, Everett and Gomez with back to back to back singles. First IBB of the season (Mauer, 9th)

"Strained right bisep" without being hit or overworked with weights, sounds like an elbow or shoulder issue (unfortunately). Gardenhire kept the first 2 pitchers in the game too long. They both showed signs of ineffectiveness at least 3 batters before they were done.

Next series against the AL Central leaders, Royals, at home. Would be interested to see how Baker is. With today's long effort by Bass and 2 days in a row pitching by Guerrier, Baker better go at least 6.

Cleveland lost to Chicago & Detroit lost to the Royals; Cabrera is day to day with a leg strain

Matt Garza's line from yesterday (@BAL): 5.1 IP, 6H, 5ER, 2HR, 2BB, 3K

MLB.tv is just wonderful

Twins MVP: Mauer

Notes & thoughts from today

• Twins lose 0-1


• Great close game. A pitcher's duo. Unfortunately, I thought that Saunders would be more hittable than that.


• Tolbert turned a cool DP in the 8th, with bases loaded and one out...


• Redmond's dp at the 8th after Monroe's walk was a backbreaker


• If people think that Gomez is green at the plate just look at Aybar (and he's 2 years older than Gomez)


• Morneau's backhand play on Figgins in the 5th was just amazing and the following play by Harris was great. Enough webgems, how about some O?


• Blackburn is a gamer. He was fighting with every pitch, kept his composure on the mount and kept going...


• I need a #22 jersey (and a #21 too...); don't know about a #27 though... He looks likes his buddy Torri in the box.


• What's up with the lack of crowd in the Dome?


• Blackburn, Lamb and Mauer are brothers in sideburns


• Detroit lost 0-4 to KC. No errors, but the lineup is not clicking and Inge is
  still the starting CF. Polanco is 0-10 for the season & Jacque Jones (0-7).


• Got an mlb.tv view of the Chicago - Indians game and Carmona started the gameb looking like "the wild thing" character from the movie Major League before he settled down. It seems very cold there also...[edit: eventually it seems like the Indians are winning comfortable this game]


• Here is all you need to know about the helmets worn by the Twins' base coaches this season. I think that the whole team should probably wear them. I really like the look it somewhat reminds me of those crazy Expos uniforms in the 80s.


• Brian McNamee is hitting ebay big times

Twins MVP: Blackburn

Twins needs, wants and recent rumor analysis - part one: Santana

La Velle Neal just indicated that the Twins cleared up 2 positions on their 40 man roster, indicating that there is a potential acceleration of events regarding either a Johan Santana trade or a SoCal-initiated rumored trade that would bring Morneau to the Angels or even a Boston-globe remark regarding a straight up Coco Crisp trade.

In this segment I am commenting on the possible returns on a Santana trade.

The main needs of the Twins before this postseason were: 2B, 3B, DH with emphasis on power and right hand bats. After Hunter's signing with the Angels, there is an additional hole in CF. Also, after Castillo's departure, there is a need for a lead off hitter (and overall speed in the lineup) which apparently cannot be satisfied by Casilla at this point

The major want of the Twins brass is to keep the payroll within the 70-75 million dollar range, before the new stadium opens.

Given these parameters, a Santana trade better happen and a couple of additional trades could go long ways. Let me explain:

Johan is pretty much at the apex of his trading value (if not on its downside). A quick comparison of similar pitchers at his age reveals names such as John Candelaria, Bob Welch, Jack McDowell, Sid Fernandez, Kevin Millwood, Kevin Appier, and Mike Mussina. Good pitchers, sometimes great but certainly no Hall of Famers or pitchers who you should spent 30% of your payroll for. I realize that this is a projection and Johan right now is probably the best pitcher in baseball, but I think that the numbers make the point. If there is the potential for a deal with the Yankees (as rumored) including Robinson Cano as the centerpiece with Melky Cabrera and one of the Yankee pitching prospects added to the deal, it might make a lot of sense for the Twins.

My favorite Santana trade for the Twins would be with the Dodgers for Matt Kemp, Andy LaRoche, Johnathan Broxton and Clayton Kershaw. Kemp and LaRoche will plug the holes in the CF and 3B, bringing strong RH power and Broxton could be the closer (with Kershaw waiting in the wings developing in the minors) as soon as Nathan walks or is traded. Furthermore, the addition of Santana, might pull the Dodgers over the edge in a pretty balanced NL West and crown them Champions.

Still, this picture, even though it addresses the Twins' right hand power and 3B/CF needs, does not address the speed/lead off hitter and DH needs. Monroe hopefully is not the team's answer to the DH position. Hot off the press is a speculation that the Mets might be big players in the Santana sweepstakes, with Reyes as the centerpiece and probably a center fielder (Milledge/Gomez) and a pitcher or two added. This would be a steal for the Twins, since it would provide a great lead of hitter and solve the CF problem. This would probably require Bartlett to move to 2B, a position he played only twice in the minors... Additionally, the needs at 3B, DH and right hand power would need to be addressed.

A possible lineup with the Mets trade would look like this (ages as of 2007 in parenthesis):

SS Reyes (24)
2B Bartlett (27)/Punto (29)
C Mauer (24)
RF Cuddyer (28)
1B Morneau (26)
CF Milledge (22)/Gomez (21)
LF Kubel (25)/Monroe (30)
DH Monroe (30)/Kubel (25)/ G. Jones (26)
3B Buscher (26)/Punto (29)

additional bench: Tyner (30), Redmond (36), Casilla (22)

SP Liriano (23)
SP Slowley (23)
SP Garza (23)
SP Bonser (25)
SP Baker (25)/Blackburn (25)/Perkins (24)
RP Rincon (28)
RP Neshek (26)
RP Reyes (30)/ De Paula (24)
RP Guerrier (28)/ Crain (25)
CL Nathan (32)


Observations:

1. This is a young and fairly inexperienced team with a lot of potential upside and would probably entering its peak when the Twins enter the new ballpark. Would this team be able to contend before that?

2. A lot depends on the development of these players. Cuddyer, Morneau, Punto and Mauer had career years in 2006 then regressed in 2007, would they be able to improve in 2008? Bartlett and Kubel had good years in 2007 (esp. late), would they be able to repeat or improve in 2008?

3. Would Buscher hold the 3b job? (he is another left handed bat, his fielding percentage in the minors was .938; but his OPS was .897 in AAA)

4. Still with a Santana trade, there is a surplus in both starting and relieving pitching, with several others (Duensing, Pino, Manship, Delaney, Tippett) a year or two away, which makes additional trades possible or even necessary.