Saturday's game notes and thoughts

• Watching the KC telecast of the game via MLB.tv. Interesting to see that Mauer moved into the 3 hole. His performance behind Gomez has been exceptional that far...


• Livan makes his second start for the Twins this year. 1-2-3 inning (12 pitches) with a groundout to the Hernandez (great defensive play on a high chopper) and 2 flyouts to Gomez. Gomez strikes out, Tolbert grounds out to the SS, Mauer strikes out. 1-2-3 inning.


• Guillen grounds out to Tolbert, Butler stikes out on the slow curve, Gordon singles to right, Oliva forces out they runner Everett to Tolbert. No score, 27 total pitches for Hernandez. Morneau out to the SS, Young grounds out to the 2B, Kubel strikes out. End of 2, no score


• Gload singles down the middle, Hernandez balks him to second, Gallaspo sends him home with an RBI triple in right center. Gathright sacrifices him home in a play where Young clearly throws Gallaspo out at the plate. Umpire gift run. Out at Tolbert, but 2 runs are in. Monroe walks the count and takes a walk. Lamb flies out on shallow CF on the 1st pitch. Everett strikes out. Gomez takes the first 2 balls and then fouls out behind the plate to the catcher. End of 3, Royals 2-0. Pitch count: Hernandez 38, Meche 44


• Guillen pops up to Mauer, Butler singles to the left, trying for a double, Young throws him out. Assist for Delmon. Gordon flies out to Gomez with the next pitch. 1-2-3 inning. 45 total pitches for Livan after 4. Tolbert singles through the middle. Mauer takes the first 3 pitches for balls, mount conference for KC, Mauer walks. 1st and 2nd no outs. Meche hangs one, Morneau tatoos it on the upper deck for a 3 run homer. Young grounds out to second. Kubel fouls out to shallow left. Monroe grounds out to the SS. End of 4, Twins 3-2


• Olivo flies to Gomez in 2 pitches, ground out to Tolbert, ground out to Everett, 1-2-3 inning in 6 pitches, 51 total for Livan. Lamb grounds out to 2B, Everett pops to 2B, Gomez strikes out. After 5, 3-2 Twins


• Gathright fouls out a bunt to Mauer on the first pitch, 2 pitch ground out to Everett, pop out to Everett, 7 pitch 1-2-3 inning, 58 total for Livan. Tolbert has an infield hit to short. Mauer sacrifices Tolbert to second with a bunt. Morneau doubles Tolbert home to right center. Young grounds out to the pitcher, Morneau to 3rd. Kubel singles to right, Morneau in. Monroe singles, Kubel scores (catcher misses the tag at home), Monroe moves to second. Mahay in to pitch for the Royals. Lamb grounds out to him. End of 6, Twins 6-2. There is enough cushion and he has thrown few pitches so hopefully Livan would have the first complete game of the season.


• Single to the center, strike out with the slow curve, hit to the right 1st and 3rd one out. Guerrier up in the pen. 2-run double 6-4. Force out to Everett. Out at Tolbert. Long inning for Hernandez, 74 total pitches. Everett grounds out the SS, Gomez has his 3rd K of the game, Tolbert bunts for a hit to the 3rd base side (then changed to an error), Mauer pops up to third. End of inning, Twins 6-4


• Guerrier in to pitch in a save situation, Punto at 3B. Ground out to Everett, fly out to Gomez, infield single on a high chopper to Tolbert, Reyes up in the pen. Error by Everett, the tying runs on 1st and 2nd. Ground out to Everett. Royals out. Long inning. Yabuta in to pitch for the Royals. Morneau grounds out to first. Delmon singles to right, Kubel grounds into a double play. End of 8, Twins 6-4


• Nathan in. Ground out to Morneau, K, single through the middle, fly out to Gomez, game over. Nathan's 3rd save of the season. Twins win 6-4. Half a game from the 1st place in the AL Central.


• A couple season firsts on this game: Morneau's homer & Monroe's hit.

Twins MVP: Morneau

his HR swing:

Quasi play-by-play notes from the Twins' season opener

(unedited streamed thoughts typed as I was watching:)

Great to see Gomez sprint to take the field. First pitch of the game a strike, first 3 batters retired, 9 total pitches for Hernandez. Gomez starts the game with a double and scores with a Mauer hit. Hunter catches Cuddyer's short to right center amid a chorus of crowd noise. Morneau walks and Weaver hasn't thrown a slider for a strike yet. Delmon flies to Guerrero on the first pitch and Monroe flies out on one
pitch to Hunter (amid another chorus of noise). The strike zone has been pretty
wide, which is a good thing for Hernandez, a finesse pitcher who likes to eat at the
corners. Nineteen pitches for Weaver.

Anderson out in 3 pitches. Hunter is getting an ovation coming to bat, flies to
Cuddyer in short right in the second pitch. Kotchman singles, Cuddyer almost picked him off at first with a smart throw. Livan has been a master of the outside corner
so far tonight with a well working slider and change up. Force at 2nd. 6 outs, 20
total pitches for Hernandez. Weaver is wild with his 2-seamer also, Lamb growns out to the second baseman. Harris long fouls a hanging curve to the opposite field and
then takes a fourseamer down the middle for a called 3rd strike. Everett grounds out
, 3rd inning over. 30 total pitches for Weaver and all the new Twins' starters have
taken a taste of the Dome.

Napoli looks like Tim Laudner on the plate with Livan's 12-6 curve, K in 3 pitches.
Delmon throws out Figgins at the second base but the umpire calls him safe (very
clear at the replay). Man on second 2 outs, Matthews up, Livan working the inside
corner with a 2 seamer then a slow curve. The crowd gets behind Livan. Livan gets
Matthews on a slow grownder to the pitcher on a sinker. 3 outs, 39 total pitches,
the top of the Twins' order is up. Gomez bunts for a hit; head first slide on first.
3 throws on a row on 1st base by Weaver then ball high and out. Gomez steals second
on a pitchout. Man on 2nd no outs. 3-1, bouncer to the right, Gomez to 3rd with 1
out. Cuddyer out on 3 strikes, Morneau up & out to the second baseman.
Guerrero singles to the left, Anderson flies to Gomez, Hunter DPs to Harris, great
bare hand catch by Morneau (definite Webgem). 44 total pitches for Livan. Delmon
singles on a Texas leaguer on short right, Monroe up. Young steals 2nd on a hit and
run. Monroe stikes out. Lamb singles to right center, Young is in, 2-0 Twins.
Harris singles to center, Lamb to 3rd, Everett up, mount conference. Do I see a
bunt? Nope. Weaver's sliders are hitting the dirt now. Pickoff try (must have been
the 15th throw to the 1st base by Weaver). Fastball low 2-2. Double play to
second.

5th inning, Angels' bottom of the order. Kotchman has a hit to right (2 for 2 in the game) Hernandez is getting a bit wild. Kendrick base hit to left. Man on 1st and
2nd no outs. Napoli singles to left. Bases loaded nobody out. Izturis up. Great
time for a strikeout. Double play, a run scores. Man on 3rd 2 outs. Figgins up.
strike one. 1-1 outside. 1-2. Crowd on their feet. 2-2. Mauer at the mound. 3-2
outside. Fastball inside low, base hit, right field. Score tied. Gary Matthews Jr
on the plate. 1-0 outside. 2-0 high. Gomez incredible running catch at right center
(another webgem, Torii who?). 65 pitches for Hernandez. 3-1 for Gomez, draws a walk.
Mauer takes a strike and another. Throw to first and another. Gomez off, steals
2nd. 1-2. 2-2. Mauer out to second basement, Gomez to 3rd 1 out, Cuddyer up. Single
at left on 1st pitch (slider), Gomez in, Twins 3-2. Morneau fouls a long one then
takes a strike down the middle. Another throw to 1st and another. Full count.
Cuddyer steals second on a missed hit and run. Morneau out. Young up. 1-2. 2-2 on
the dirt. Fies out to the right. Inning over. 85 total pitches for Weaver.
Guerrero grounds out to Everett. 2-1 to Anderson. 2-2. 2 foul balls. Curve. Flied
out to Delmon Young. Hunter up. Boos. Flies out to Gomez. Devine symmetry... 1-2-3
inning. 77 total pitches for Livan. Monroe grounds out to 2B. 2-2 to Lamb. Out at
the shortstop. Harris up. Nice slurve for a strike by Weaver. Harris get a double
with Izturis and Anderson both looking for the ball. (Noise please). Harris on 2nd 2
outs Everett on the plate. Oday warming up for the Angels. Everett flies to
Anderson. End of 6. Twins up 3-2. Weaver at 100 pitches.

Kotchman grounds out to Everett. Kendrick 2-0, 2-1 soft grounder to Hernandez, 2
down. Napoli flies out to Gomez. 1-2-3 inning. 84 total pitches for Hernandez. Gomez
up. 1-0. Foul ball 1-1. Sliden outside 2-1. Another one (and low) 3-1. Foul 3-2. K on
a curve on the dirt. Weaver is done, Oliver in, Mauer up. Mauer out at the
shortstop. Cuddyer up out at the shortstop. 7 done. Twins up 3-2.

Neshek in. One K (Izturis). Full count to Figgins. Foul ball, another foul and
another. Got him looking. 2Ks for Neshek. Matthews up, drops for a hit in shallow
left between Everett and Young for a double. Guererro up. Reyes is warming in the
bullpen. 1-0 outside. 2-0 outside. 2-1 foul straight back. 2-2 strike inside. Crowd
is in it. Way inside 3-2. Crowd yells. High fastball swing and miss. Stike 3.
Neshek strikes out the side. O'Day (a submariner) pitching for the Angels, Morneau up
grounds out to second. Nathan is warming up. Young hits throught the middle.
Kubbel PH for Monroe. 0-2. Texas league double on the left field. Kubel on second,
Young on third, Lamb is being intentionally walked. Bases loaded, Harris up, one
out. Punto PR for Lamb. 0-1. 0-2. Foul ball at right. K on a singing fastball. 2
out, Everett up. 0-1. Long foul, hr distance on the left field. Pop up to the left
fielder. Inning out.

Nathan in for the 9th. Anderson. 0-1, 1-1, 2-1, foul ball 2-2. Crowd is up. Fly
ball, Gomez has it. One out. Hunter up. Swing and a miss on a slider. 0-1. Another.
0-2. Another. Foul ball. Fastball inside 1-2. Broken bat foul. 1-2. High fastball
swing and a miss. K. 2 out. Kotchman up. Slider for a stike 0-1. BH swinging bat to
the pitcher. Willets running for Kotchman. Kendrick up. Foul 0-1, Foul 0-2. Crowd
is going. Up the middle Everett steps on the 2b bag for the last out. Twins win 3-2.


Tidbits & observations:

• Impressed by the quality of Livan's pitching. He works the strike zone and changes speeds with ease and can throw strikes with all his pitches. He could be a great mentor for the Twins' young starters


• Lamb's sideburns are rivaling Mauer's


• Artificial turf likes Gomez


• Gomex had a better game than Hunter


• I think that Monroe should be more selective with his swings and run harder to the first base


• Hernandez has the same ERA and record as Santana


• Gomez's uniform is the dirtiest Twins' uni I've seen for a while


• Neshek is on top of his game. (period)

Twins MVP: Gomez

Final score 3-2. WP: Hernandez 0-1; SV: Nathan (1)

supplement about pitching in 2007

Previously I discussed that the loss of Santana could be not as big as it seems in terms of his 2007 performance. Here is a list of all the 2007 starters with the record of games that the team won or lost when they were the starting pitchers

Slowey 7-4
Baker 13-11
Santana 16-16 *
Bonser 14-16
Garza 7-8 *
Silva 15-18 *
Ortiz 4-6 *
Ponson 2-5 *

The ones with asterisks are no longer with the team. In addition, the Diamondbacks were 16-17 in games that Livan Hernandez started (which would potentially put him under Santana in that list). The Twins were 10-4 in games Liriano started in 2006.

If we project 33 starts for 4 starters and 32 starts for the fifth, assuming that the team will perform similarly as last year, we'd have

Liriano 22-10
Slowey 21-12
Baker 18-15
Bonser 16-17
Hernandez 16-17

and total for the team 93-69. A bit of scrutiny about these assumptions and further refinement

• Liriano most likely would not be in his 2006 form, so let's give him 75% of 2006


• Hernandez is going from the NL to the AL, so let's give him 75% of 2007


• Bonser, Baker have improved, so let's give them 115% of 2007

The refined results:

Slowey 21-12
Baker 21-12
Bonser 18-15
Liriano 17-15
Hernandez 12-21

resulting to a team record of 89-73 (which is identical to that of the calculation based on close games lost last year, a few posts earlier)


Interested edit:

The ESPN projections have the Twins with a record of 86-76 and project Bonser at only 8 wins. The Baseball think factory's Zips projection (you need to do some work to find Livan Hernandez's numbers), has the Twins with 92 wins...