A fashion statement?

By Joe Crede in today's game?




Hard to talk about this series; another loss. 2 games under .500, 5 games behind in the loss column. They almost need to take 4 out of the next 6.

The Comeback Boys: The Twins Sweep the Tigers.

The Twins swept a three game series from the Tigers, in a development that might have them in a three-way tie for the AL Central lead with the Tigers and the Royals, if the latter lose tonight to the Orioles in Kansas City. The fist game was a 5-2 win, in which the Twins never trailed. The other two games were very dramatic with changing leads late in the game.

Here is the FanGraphs, win probability representation of yesterday's game



this game was won in a dramatic fashion in a walk off grand slam by Joe Crede that untied a 10-10 game in the bottom of the 14th inning.

Here is the representation of today's game:



and this game had just two big swings for each team, the last one in a 6 run 7th inning highlighted with Crede's single with the bases loaded to score two. Breslow, Guerrier and Nathan pitched exceptionally to conserve the victory.

The twins are on a three game winning streak and traveling for a 4 day series in the new Yankee stadium, a park in which the hosts have a winning record, in a time where they are hitting the best for a while. It will be interested to see whether the streak will extend.

The Seattle series in review

The first series of the year is over. The Twins tied 2-2 with the Seattle Mariners and are in second place in the AL Central, half a game behind the Kansas City Royals, half a game a head of the Chicago White Sox, a game ahead of the Detroit Tigers and a game and a half ahead of the win-less Cleveland Indians.

This series concluded with a classic pitcher's duo in which Jarrod Washburn, outlasted Glen Perkins to lead his Mariners to a 2-0 matinee victory. A few observations from this series, in a random order:

• The Mariners are not as bad as they look on paper. The addition of Guterriez and Chavez in the outfield will help them win several games (one could argue that today's was one of them) with the glove. With the Angel's rotation a huge question mark and the Rangers and A's unpredictable, it could be possible that the Mariners might contend this season, if they get the right bounces like they did in this series. A split with the Mariners at home might sound discouraging, but lets not forget that the Twins last season spit a home series with the Rays and we all know what happened to the Rays...


• There were a lot of nerves at the starting rotation, but Perkins and Liriano performed very well pitching 8 and 7 innings of 0.88 and 0.57 WHIP, respectively. As a matter of fact, that was Perkins' best start with the Twins.


• Having Crede at third base will be a huge factor for the Twins, even if his bat is slow to wake up. Just in this series Crede made at least 5 plays that Buscher could not make in his dreams.


• The biggest surprise as far as the bats go, was Denard Span who followed an awful spring with a .308/.438/.538 performance, one home run, a team leading 4 RBI and 1 SB. Other than Span, Morneau, Kubel and Harris (who owns Washburn) had good series with the bat.


• Nathan was perfect in his single save opportunity and Guerrier, who gave only one hit in 2.1 innings (0.43 WHIP), showed promise that last season might have just been a fluke

First Series MVP:

Denard Span



First Series Best Pitcher:

Glen Perkins




Next series: 3 games against the White Sox in Chicago. Probable Starters:

Friday: R.A. Dickey vs. Jose Conteras
Saturday: Fransisco Liriano vs. Bartolo Colon
Sunday: Nick Blackburn vs. TBD

On another note, Rochester beat Syracuse 7-4, powered by home runs by Martin, Plouffe, Winfree and Hughes. Interestingly, Tim Lahey was the closer today.

The New Britain game in New Hampshire just started and the Rock Cats are winning 1-0 on the top of the 1st after a Rene Tosoni home run at the first AB of the game. Jay Raiville is pitching.

Not your average Joes…

In the last six months, the American nation living rooms heard of Joe the plumber and Joe six-pack, who were introduced as iconic images during the 2008 U.S. Presidential campaign, carrying the hope of victory on their shoulders for the candidates who iconized them. This season, a lot of the hopes of victory for the Twins’ nation will be carried by the backs, arms and shoulders of three Joes: Joe Mauer, Joe Nathan and the newest Joe, Joe Crede.

A potential cause for concern is the possibility that these backs and shoulders might not be ready to bear the weight of everyday play by opening day and through out the season: Joe Crede comes into the season after back to back back surgeries. Joe Mauer had kidney surgery during the off-season and his back is still sore enough not to allow him to take the field so far this spring. Joe Nathan was scratched from the U.S. World Baseball Classic team, because of discomfort in his right (throwing) shoulder (AC) joint.

Even though Joe Nathan’s injury might be the least serious of the three (there are recent reports that he threw 25 pitches Thursday with no pain), he is the oldest of the 3 and the most likely to decline. Hopefully that will not happen before he finishes his contract with the Twins.

I have discussed Joe Crede’s back situation ad noseum here. So far this spring there has not been a single report of pain or discomfort in his back either batting or playing on the field. He did make a diving play this week and Gardenhire promptly reported that he felt no pain. On the other hand, his bat (other than a double against Puerto Rico, in an exhibition game) has been fairly silent. Lets hope that this is just a timing issue and not the silence of the Lamb.

Joe Mauer’s situation has been a bit more worrisome (at least to me), mainly because the reports seem to be a bit “template-based”. He had surgery to repair a kidney constriction that he had all his life. That much we know. To do that, a surgeon goes threw ones back or abdomen, cuts through muscle and takes care of the kidney. The kidney is not an issue with Mauer’s ability to play (if corrected and healed), the muscle healing is. All it was reported was that “Mauer is looking to be 100% by opening day” and (a couple days ago) “Mauer had a small setback”. I really do not like that “setback” noun, because it is non-specific. Yes, the HIPAA (Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act) applies to Joe Mauer as much as it to Joe Schmoe, but I am sure that fans are questioning (at least this one is) the nature of the “setback”. Was it something kidney-related (blood in the potty; sorry if this is too graphic) or was it something muscle-related? I have been trying to get information left and right these days about the nature of Mauer’s baseball-related ailment and it is just not there. Here is a simple question: How exactly is Mauer unable to play? I assume that he has problems getting to the crouch position, since that puts stress into the couple of muscles affected by the procedure (regardless whether it was through the back or abdomen) I’ve never heard a single report on (or got answers to questions about) whether he can swing a bat off a tee (edit, there was one a few hours ago, but you got to dig deep. And yes he can swing off a tee, which is extremely good news). I just wish Joe the best and I hope that he is healthy soon.

The ’87 Twins had their killer Gs (Gladden, Gaetti, Gagne.) These ’09 Twins are poised to be the killer J’s even if the Joes are not 100%. In the 40-man roster there are:

3 Jasons, Kubel, Jones and Pridie
2 José’s, Mijares and Morales, and
1 Justin (who sometimes is mistaken for a Jason,) Morneau

This makes me confident.

This post has been brought to you by the letter J and the number 90, which is how many wins I project for the Minnesota Twins for the 2009 season (more on that next week)

Looking Good in Red White and Blue

Meet and Greet: Joe Crede

Bill Smith made a sizeble splash in the free agent market by singing Joe Crede late last night to a fair contract, that is loaded with incentives. I wrote about the potential risk that Crede might be. The Twins' fans are familiar with him. Is there anything more one can say as an introduction to Crede?

Well, there is: Joe Crede is one of those rare players who have spent 12 seasons with the same team. He was drafted out of high school in the 5th round of the 1996 draft and made the majors in 4 years as a 22-year old. His most impressive minor league seasons were in 1998 when as a 20 year old he hit .315/.382/.514, with 20 HR and 88 RBI for the Wiston-Salem Warthogs (Carolina League, high A) and in 2000 when in his second year as Birmingham Baron (Southern League, AA) he hit .306/.372/.490 with 21 HR and 94 RBI. That earned him a cup of coffee in the majors and annual trips the next 2 years. His breakthrough year was in 2002 with the Charlotte Knights (International League, AAA) where he hit .312/.358/.571 with 24 HR and 65 RBI in 359 AB (he had 200 AB with the White Sox that year where he hit .285/.311/.515 with 12 HR and 35 RBI) as a 24 year old. For the year, between AAA and majors, Crede hit 36 HR and drove in 89. His final career minor league line was .291/.346/.462.

Unfortunately, in the majors, he regressed from his 2002 appearance, never having another 113 OPS+ season (in 2006 when he hit .283/.323/.506 30 HR and 90 RBI, his OPS+ was 107.) Low OPS (esp. OBP) has been Crede's Achilles's heel after he left the minors for good in 2002. Let's try to look at the root causes of that and whether there is hope there:

Crede, in the majors, from 2002 to 2008 improved his BB% from a 3.8% in 2002 to a 8.2% in 2008 (which is positive) and his K% from a 20% in 2002 to a 13.4% in 2008. Thus, it is not that he strikes out and he is not taking walks what affects his OPS (Think Gomez in 2008.) He actually got better in these departments. The problem was what happened when the ball was in play after it left his bat. Here is a list of his BABIP from 2002 on:

2002: .304
2003: .274
2004: .247
2005: .253
2006: .272
2007: .230
2008: .242


Unlike pitchers, BABIP variations for batters do not signify "luck". Here is a good article that describes BABIP and hitters, in English. There are a lot of factors that might affect BABIP, but to make a long story short, the reason that Crede's BABIP decreased dramatically, is that his line drive percentage also decreased dramatically in the majors from 2002. Here are his yearly LD%:

2002: 24.2%
2003: 21.7%
2004: 16.5%
2005: 19.0%
2006: 17.8%
2007: 14.6%
2008: 14.3%

Root cause found. Crede needs to get more line drives to increase his OBP and OPS. Line drives are not necessarily the hardest hit balls, but they do fall for a hit around 75% of the time. Huge factor for one's BABIP.

Is it fixable? Why would one stop hitting line drives? I looked at various places in 2003 to see whether something happened that might have affected Crede, and I found this tidbit. Apparently the White Sox coaching stuff in order for him to stop swinging at outside pitches, they turned him into a pull hitter vs. an all field hitter (and his 2002 season, see above, indicates that he indeed has power in all fields). I need some more sources to verify this, and expect and edit as soon as I find it.

Edit: Here is an additional reference to Crede's new swing and approach in 2003.

Edit 2: Here are Crede's spray charts for the US Cellular Field in 2002 and 2008.

2002:



2008:



I am including all hits and ground outs. This confirms that in 2002 when Crede had high OPS (driven by high BABIP, which in turn was driven by high LD%) he hit the ball into the opposite field and the change in his approach sometime in 2003 that turned him into an one dimensional hitter and reduced his OPS (again, BABIP and LD% driven) but decreased his Ks and increased his walks, reduced his all field hitting ability as indicated in his 2008 spray chart. Hypothesis confirmed.

I have been voicing my disapproval for the Twins' spread the ball to all fields hitting coach philosophy, but if there is a guy who can improve from that is Crede, and if there is place that he can improve from that is in Minnesota.


Here you have it!

How much of a bargain is Joe Crede?

There have been reports that the Twins are interested in Joe Crede and sent 2 scouts in his Arizona work outs yesterday and today. Earlier this off-season, Joe Crede was called a free agent bargain, even though he had 2 back to back back surgeries to repair 2 herniated discs in his spine. How much of a bargain he is?

Let's examine the facts.

First: What they hey is a herniated disc and why have a back surgery:

WebMD defines a herniated disc as a protrusion of a degenerated or fragmented intervertebral disc into the intervertebral foramen with potential compression of a nerve root or into the spinal canal with potential compression of the cauda equina in the lumbar region or the spinal cord at higher levels characterized by disruption of the annular fibrosis. In plain English: there are discs in your spine that are located inside vertebrae (those are your stacked spine bones, think Jenga). The discs are flexible and they are lubed and help you move. All around them there are nerves. The spine is the mother of all nerves in the human body. And nerves make things move (formally: propagate signals sent from your brain to your muscles) and are the things that make you feel pain. For example, if you have a tooth ache, your tooth doesn't hurt, but the nerves in your teeth "hurt" (formally: send "pain" signals back to your brain; it's a 2-way street), so the dentist goes and does a "root canal" (gets rid of the nerves inside your teeth) and you don't feel the pain. Not that getting Crede will be like getting a root canal (watching Buscher buschering balls is like one), but I am digressing...

Back to the back.

When you do something funky with your back (like trying to throw 50lbs of cement in a truck X 100 a day or try to give your 110lb 12 year old a piggy back ride) or have an accident (like have some cleats landing on your back the wrong way or having your aforementioned 110lb 12 year old land or your back the wrong way or consumed about 20 too many cases of beer last year and your 50lb overweight gut had no muscles to support your back when tried to lift that one last box of books off your basement to sell on ebay) one of those spongy little things might 'slip'. And that is called a "herniated disc" and usually hurts like hell a bit higher than your tailbone. If you messed it up bad enough, you feel it down one or both of your legs (and butt) and it is called "sciatica" (remember, the spine is the mother of all nerves and one of them is the longest nerve of your body, the sciatic nerve that travels from the spine, just a couple of inches north of your butt crack down to the bottom of your feet. That's a nasty nerve because when it's messed up in the bottom of your feet, esp. if you have high arches, it is called patellar tendinitis and hurts like hell, too. Think Marty Cordova and Shannon Steward, but that's a different story).

Back to the back

So Crede had not one but two of those discs messed up. What does the average Joe do when his disc is messed up? He (if he has adequate insurance these days, goes to his primary care physician who writes him a pink -or yellow- referal slip to a specialist, to cover his/her rear end, who in turn subjects him to a bunch of X-rays and MRIs to cover his rear and the result is that the average Joe/Jane) takes medication (anti-inflammatory, think ibuprofen and cortisone shots) rest, heat pads and physical therapy. Half of the average Joes (and Janes) affected by herniated discs are fine after a month of this regiment. 90% of the average Joes (and Janes) are fine after 6 months of this regiment. Only 10% of the herniated disc cases result in surgery. What kind of surgery? Well, this is not exactly therapeutic surgery (like you got an inflamed appendix, you get it out, no more inflamed appendix, no more pain) but it is the equivalent of a root canal: You either get the extra fluid that builds up and presses on the nerves making them hurt sucked away in a variety of ways or get the misplaced disc out of there and two neighboring vertebrae are "glued" together (the latter is called "fusion" and its a kind of an old school method). These days for degenerative conditions like osteoporosis (or a nasty accident) when the vertebrae themselves are shot, one can get brand new titanium vertebrae, but this is not the case here. Surgery is all about pain management. Get the disc out of there that rubs the nerve the wrong way or get the fluid out of there that rubs the nerve the wrong way. Nerves are divas. You gotta take care of them. Crede had door number 2: Fluid drainage. Twice.

Back to the average Joe with the average back problem. How rare is to need 2 consecutive operations to solve the same (or 2 of the same) issues? Only about 1% of average Joes (and Janes) need to have that to be done to them to be pain free. Crede did. And Crede is an athlete and much better conditioned that the average Joe or Jane with a herniated disc, who is probably 25-50 lb + overweight. Two conclusions here: either this is the mother of all herniated discs (or a couple of them) or Joe did not receive the proper regiment to allow him to heal (rest, rest, rest). Hard to tell what it might be.

Enough pig Latin Anatomy; back to baseball: Let's assume that Crede's surgery is successful (and I wholeheartedly wish it is.) What should a team anticipate from him?

I looked at all the major league position players I could find who had back surgery from their mid twenties to their mid thirties (if you know of anyone else, please tell me; pitchers like Kevin Brown, Eric Gagne, Randy Johnson and company were excluded, so were position players- Cal Ripken- who had the surgery in their late 30s) and here are their slash number lines the season before surgery, the season of their surgery (in bold) and the two seasons after surgery (if applicable.) The year of the surgery is indicated by the player's name and the player's age at the season of the surgery is indicate in the line of that season:

John Castino (1981)

1980: .302/.336/.430 (546 AB)
1981: .268/.301/.396 (381 AB) age: 26
1982: .241/.304/.344 (410 AB)
1983: .277/.348/.403 (563 AB)
last season: 3 years after surgery

Ron Kittle (1989)

1988: .258/.323/.533 (255 AB)
1989: .302/.378/.556 (169 AB) age 31
1990:.231/.293/.438 (338 AB)
1991:.191/.291/.319 (47 AB)
last season: 2 years after surgery

David Winfield (1989)

1988: .322/.398/.530 (559 AB)
1989: DNP age: 36
1990:.267/.338/.453 (475 AB)
1991:.262/.326/.472 (568 AB)
last season: 6 years after surgery

Darryl Strawberry (1992)

1991: .265/.361/.491 (505 AB)
1992: .237/.322/.385 (156 AB) age 30
1993: .140/.267/.310 (92 AB)
1994: .239/.363/.424 (89 AB)
last season: 7 years after surgery

Sandy Alomar, Jr. (1993)
1992: .251/.293/.324 (299 AB)
1993: .270/.318/.395 (215 AB) age 27
1994:.288/.347/.490 (292 AB)
1995: .300/.332/.478 (203 AB)

Jose Canseco (1999)
1998: .237/.318/.518 (583 AB)
1999: .279/.369/.563 (430 AB) age 34
2000: .252/.377/.444 (329 AB)
2001: .258/.366/.477 (256 AB)
last season: 2 years after surgery

Eric Chavez (2007)
2006: .241/.351/.435 (485 AB)
2007: .240/.306/.446 (341 AB) age: 29
2008: .247/.295/.393 (89 AB)

Mark Kotsay (2007)
2006: .275/.332/.386 (502 AB)
2007: .214/.279/.296 (206 AB) age: 31
2008: .276/.329/.403 (402 AB)


And here is the point of the inquiry:

Joe Crede (2007, 2008)
2006: .283/.323/.506 (544 AB)
2007: .216/.258/.317 (167 AB) age: 29
2008: .248/.314/.460 (335 AB) age: 30
2009: ?


If we average the OPS and the AB of these players before surgery, the year after surgery and the second year after surgery and look at OPS and AB the first and second years after surgery as fractions of the year before surgery we have:OPS 1 year after surgery = .92 of year before surgery, OPS 2 years after surgery = .96 of year before surgery;AB 1 year after surgery = .66 of year before surgery, AB 2 year after surgery = .62 of year before surgery

if these fractions are applied on Crede's 2006 numbers the predicted values for Crede's 2009 and 2010 seasons are:

2009: .763 OPS in 359 AB
2010: .796 OPS in 337 AB

As a reminder in 2008, Brian Buscher had .730 OPS in 218 AB and Brendan Harris .721 OPS in 434 AB. Harris had a .777 OPS in 521 AB with the Rays in 2007. Also Wigginton had an .876 OPS in 386 AB with the Astros in 2008. And a .792 OPS in 547 AB with the Rays and the Astros in 2007. And it sounds like he will be jumping in joy if he receives half of what Crede allegedly wants to play next year.

Draw your own conclusions about what is the best direction that the Twins should go. Here is my analysis of the third base situation last October and I still stand by it.

Remember the off-season contest is still on. Go to the link and give me your thoughts. 4 people did already. If you guess better than they did, you will win a copy of one of the best minor league publications for the Twins, the Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook - 2009, by Seth Stohs of SethSpeaks.net a major authority in the Twins' blogosphere, personally autographed by Seth himself.