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3/27/09

Five more cuts today

Jason Pridie was optioned to Rochester and Sean Henn, Bobby Keppel, Brock Peterson and David Winfree were re-assigned to the minor league camp. This leaves the following 33 in the camp, which means that 8 more need to be cut for the 25-man roster to be finalized. I suspect Christie is still there not because he is competing for a position, but because the team needs 4 catchers to handle the side work for its pitchers. At this point the only player not in the 40-man roster with a chance to make the club is R.A. Dickie. When Bonser moves to the 60 day DL, a spot on the 40-man roster will open. Within the next few days, expect to hear about the fate of Jason Jones and whether he is returned to the Yankees or a trade is made to keep him in the Twins organization (probably with the Red Wings, if that happens.) As I promised, here is the update on who remains in the major league camp, broken down by category:

non 40-man roster invitees:

Mike Gosling
Sean Henn
Ben Julianel
R.A. Dickey
Bobby Keppel
Kevin Mulvey
Jeff Christy
Danny Lehmann
Toby Gardenhire
Alejandro Machado
Brock Peterson
Danny Valencia
Dustin Martin
Luis Matos
David Winfree
Rob Delaney

40-man roster:

Luis Ayala
Scott Baker
Nick Blackburn
Boof Bonser *
Craig Breslow
Jesse Crain
Brian Duensing
Armado Gabino
Matt Guerrier
Philip Humber
Jason Jones
Fransisco Liriano
Jose Mijares
Joe Nathan
Pat Neshek *
Glen Perkins
Kevin Slowey
Anthony Swarzak
Drew Butera
Joe Mauer
Jose Morales
Wilson Ramos
Mike Redmond
Brian Buscher
Alexi Casilla
Joe Crede
Brendan Harris
Luke Hughes
Matt Macri
Justin Morneau
Trevor Plouffe
Nick Punto
Deibinson Romero
Matt Tolbert
Steven Tolleson
Mike Cuddyer
Carlos Gomez
Jason Pridie
Dernard Span
Delmon Young
Jason Kubel

* = out for the season (Neshek is on the 60 day DL, Bonser is not)
strike = original invitee optioned to AAA or AA or re-assigned to the minor league camp

My take on the Beloit Snappers 2009 Roster

The last three of days I looks at potential rosters for the Rochester Red Wings the New Britain Rock Cats and the Fort Myers Miracle. Today I am concluding the exercise by examining the potential roster of the Beloit Snappers

Beloit Snappers, Midwest League (A)

OF Angel Morales
OF Aaron Hicks
IF Starling De Los Santos
OF Ozzie Lewis
C Danny Rams
C Alexander Soto
C/UT Gregory Yersich
IF Ramon Santana
IF/OF Mark Dolenc
IF Juan Richardson
1B/DH Jonathan Waltenbury
OF Andrew Schmiesing
IF Nicholas Papasan

SP Tom Stuifbarger
SP David Bromberg
SP Dan Osterbrock
SP Michael Tarsi
SP Shooter Hunt
RP Briank Kirwan
RP Herly Reyes
RP Danny Berlind
RP Michael Allen
RP David Martin
RP Chris Anderson
RP/SP Steven Hirschfield

As you can see there a lot of players who were playing with the Elizabethton Twins (Apalachian League, Rookie) last season in this roster. In addition, Tom Stuifbarger, the surprising WBC competitor in included here. As I have been mentioning in these exercises, these are my thoughts and probably somewhat different from those of the Twins' organization. When you get down to A or high A, it is difficult to predict, because some of the older players listed in this potential roster, who have been under-performing might get cut at the end of the minor league spring training camp.



What are your thoughts?

3/26/09

My take on the Fort Myers Miracle 2009 Roster

The last couple of days I looks at potential rosters for the Rochester Red Wings and the New Britain Rock Cats. Today I am continuing the exercise by examining the potential roster of the Fort Myers Miracle.

Ft. Myers Miracle, Florida State league (High A)

OF Eli Tintor
OF/IF Yangervis Solarte
IF Chris Cates
OF Evan Bigley
C Jair Fernandez
C Daniel Lehmann
C/UT Allan de San Miguel
IF Yancarlos Ortiz
IF/OF Garrett Olson
IF/OF Juan Portes
1B/DH Johnny Woodard
OF Edward Ovalle
1B/IF Whitney Robbins

SP Alex Burnett
SP Deolis Guerra
SP Tyler Robertson
SP Carlos Gutierrez
SP Michael McCardell
RP Charles Nolte
RP Danny Santiesteban
RP Joe Testa
RP Danny Hernandez
RP Matthew Williams
RP Luk Van Mil
RP/SP Santos Arias

Again, these are my thoughts and probably somewhat different from those of the Twins' organization. When you get down to A or high A, it is difficult to predict, because some of the 23 and 24 year olds listed in this potential roster, who have been under-performing might get cut at the end of the minor league spring training camp.



What are your thoughts?

3/25/09

The Red River and the Missouri River Situation in North Dakota

I know that this is not a baseball-related subject, but it is way much more important that baseball and I know that it is affecting readers of this blog, among hundreds of thousands of other people, and it is a situation that can be resolved, so I would like to point it out.

There is a lot of activity around Fargo-Morehead to prevent the Red River from flooding, as well as around Bismark to prevent the Missouri river from flooding. The situation is getting pretty dire. They are talking about evacuations starting tomorrow and looking for volunteers to raise makeshift dikes using sandbags. This is about the homes, shelters, well being and livelihoods of real people in these tough economic times. If you are around the area and are able to help, I would plea with you to give these folks a hand. If I did not live half a continent away, I would be there. FEMA and the US Corps of engineers are already there, and North Dakota was declared a federal disaster area today; and there has been a nasty blizzard going on, but this should not be another New Orleans. I hope and pray for the best for all the folks in the area. Let each of us do what we can possibly do to prevent that. If you cannot go there, publicize it. Talk about it, write about it, post about it in relevant places, so the ones who can be there go.

We don't want this to happen again



Thank you!

My take on the New Britain Rock Cats 2009 Roster

Yesterday I presented my take on the 2009 Rochester Red Wings roster. Today I will presenting my thoughts for the New Britain Rock Cats 2009 Roster.

New Britain Rock Cats, Eastern League (AA)

OF Brandon Roberts
OF/IF Matt Moses
OF/IF Daniel Berg
OF Rene Tosoni
C Wilson Ramos
C Rodolfo Palacios
IF Debinson Romero
IF Toby Gardenhire
IF Steven Singleton
IF/OF Eric Lis
IF Brian Dinkelman
OF Ben Revere
1B/OF Chris Parmelee

SP Ryan Mullins
SP Jay Rainville
SP Jeff Manship
SP Cole Devries
SP Oswaldo Sosa
SP/RP Yohan Pino
RP Anthony Slama
RP Frank Mata
RP/SP Matthew Fox
RP Blair Erickson
RP Henry Arias
RP Spencer Steedley

Again, these are just my thoughts. I will present my thoughts on the Ft. Myers Miracle roster tomorrow and on the Beloit Snappers roster on Friday. Those two will probably change a lot, since several players might be released or traded after spring training.



What are your thoughts?

Who is Still in the Twins' Spring Training Major League Camp

Here is the list of the players still in the Minnesota Twins' Spring Training major league camp, broken down by category. I will be updating, as cuts and/or transactions take place:

non 40-man roster invitees:

Mike Gosling
Sean Henn
Ben Julianel
R.A. Dickey
Bobby Keppel
Kevin Mulvey
Jeff Christy
Danny Lehmann
Toby Gardenhire
Alejandro Machado
Brock Peterson
Danny Valencia
Dustin Martin
Luis Matos
David Winfree
Rob Delaney

40-man roster:

Luis Ayala
Scott Baker
Nick Blackburn
Boof Bonser *
Craig Breslow
Jesse Crain
Brian Duensing
Armado Gabino
Matt Guerrier
Philip Humber
Jason Jones
Fransisco Liriano
Jose Mijares
Joe Nathan
Pat Neshek *
Glen Perkins
Kevin Slowey
Anthony Swarzak
Drew Butera
Joe Mauer
Jose Morales
Wilson Ramos
Mike Redmond
Brian Buscher
Alexi Casilla
Joe Crede
Brendan Harris
Luke Hughes
Matt Macri
Justin Morneau
Trevor Plouffe
Nick Punto
Deibinson Romero
Matt Tolbert
Steven Tolleson
Mike Cuddyer
Carlos Gomez
Jason Pridie
Dernard Span
Delmon Young
Jason Kubel

* = out for the season (Neshek is on the 60 day DL, Bonser is not)
strike = original invitee optioned to AAA or AA or re-assigned to the minor league camp

3/24/09

My take on the Rochester Red Wings 2009 Roster

I will try to post potential rosters for the Twins' minor league affiliates as the 2009 season comes to view. Here is my take (i.e. what I would like to see vs. what will actually happen) on a potential Red Wings roster for 2009:

Rochester Red Wings, International League (AAA)

OF Dustin Martin
OF Jason Pridie
OF Dave Winfree
OF Justin Huber
C Drew Butera
C Jeff Christy (to be replaced by Jose Morales when the latter returns when Mauer is healthy)
IF Matt Macri
IF Trevor Plouffe
IF Steven Tolleson
IF Luke Hughes
IF Brian Buscher
IF Danny Valencia
1B Brock Peterson

SP Anthony Swarzak
SP Kevin Mulvey
SP Brian Duensing
SP Bob Keppel
SP Sean Henn
RP Rob Delaney
RP Armado Gabino
RP Ben Julianel
RP Tim Lahey
RP Zach Ward
RP Mike Gosling
RP Jose Mijares

out: Tommy Watkins, Alejandro Machado, Joe Gaetti, Luis Matos, Jason Jones
(and this pretty much tells who I think will make the Twins' 25 man roster)



Thoughts?

My take on the New Britain Rock Cats roster will be up tomorrow, the Ft. Myers Miracle, Thursday and the Beloit Snappers Friday. I will not go into the short season leagues and the Miracle and Snappers rosters will probably change, since I suspect some players will be released after the spring training.

3/23/09

How much will Mauer's absence cost the Twins?

A couple of weeks ago, I calculated that the Twins will win 90 games this season. This was with Mauer healthy and playing for 150 games. Apparently, Mauer will not be ready for opening day. How much will this cost the Twins in wins? Aaron Gleeman suggested that it will cost the Twins 3-4 wins for the season. My initial assumption when I calculated that the Twins will win 90 was that Mauer will play 150 games. When I reduce the number of games to 100 and increase Redmond's games by 50 and I plug it into my spreadsheet to calculate the wins expected based on team OPS and the sum of individual WAR, the total team wins drop by just one. The wins based on the pitching calculations do not change.

JUST ONE WIN

(no need to sell those season tickets yet... because that will still be more than enough margin for the Twins to win the Central. Those predictions are coming up the last week of Spring Training.)

Twins Bloggers' Fantasy League Draft

I was invited to participate in a Baseball Fantasy league that includes 9 other Twins' bloggers (by draft order: )

Eric Olson, Call to the Pen
Josh Johnson, Josh's Thoughts
John Meyer, Twins MVB
Seth Stohs, Sethspeaks.net
John Bonnes, Twins Geek
Jon Marthaler, TNABACG
Nick Nelson, Nick & Nick's Twins Blog
John Hageman, Over the Baggy
Andrew Kneeland, Twins Fix

I picked 9th then 12th and so on. Here are my picks:


  1. Jimmy Rollins, Phi SS

  2. Ian Kinsler, Tex 2B

  3. Brian McCann, Atl C

  4. Manny Ramirez, LAD OF

  5. Dan Haren, Ari SP

  6. Kevin Slowey, Min SP

  7. Adam Dunn, Was OF

  8. Chris Davis, Tex 3B

  9. Joey Votto, Cin 1B

  10. Jonathan Broxton, LAD RP

  11. Carlos Gomez, Min OF

  12. Ervin Santana, LAA SP

  13. Frank Francisco, Tex RP

  14. Jesse Crain, Min RP

  15. Chris Young, Ari OF

  16. Justin Upton, Ari OF

  17. Chien-Ming Wang, NYY SP

  18. Jorge Campillo, Atl SP

  19. Clayton Kershaw, LAD SP

  20. Jorge Cantu, Fla 3B

  21. J.D. Drew, Bos OF

  22. Yunel Escobar, Atl SS

  23. Gary Sheffield, Det DH

  24. Hong-Chih Kuo, LAD RP

  25. Mark Reynolds, Ari 3B


A lot of them are unconventional and a lot of them are way too high for the general fantasy rankings (who in their right mind would pick Slowey ahead of Dunn or Crain ahead of Chien-Ming Wang and who are Jorge Campillo and Hong-Chin Kuo?) but could you expect anything different from me? So far so good, I might need to make a few adjustments in the future, but I am fairly happy. The last time I participated in fantasy baseball was about 8 years ago :)

Any fantasy baseball fans out there that would like to give me some input?

Three more cuts today:

Luke Hughes and Matt Macri were optioned to Rochester and Luis Matos was re-assigned to the minor league camp (about two weeks too late). I was hoping that Hughes (like Tolleson who was an early cut and wasn't really given a fair chance) would be still fighting with Buscher and Tolbert for that final spot on the bench... oh well...

In other news, Milwaukee returned Eduardo Morlan (whom they selected in the Rule 5 draft after the Twins by-passed him) to Tampa Bay today...

3/22/09

Spring training weeks 1-4 summary.

Four weeks of spring training are in the books, the team is one game over .500, Mauer seems to need a while to be healthy, and this is how the Twins' players involved in position battles are performing so far. These are the cummulative statistics through week 4 with 12 more games to go (The rankings are by decreasing OPS for position players and by decreasing WHIP for pitchers) :

Position Players:

Outfield Starter Battle:

Gomez .256/.341/.615, 3 HR, 5 BB, 3 SB (39 AB)
Young .325/.357/.550, 2 HR, 1 SB (40 AB)
Cuddyer .297/.325/.541, 1 HR, 2 BB (37 AB)
Span .157/.232/.275, 1 HR, 5 BB, 2 SB (51 AB)

Spot on the Bench vs Rochester Battle:

Buscher .355/.432/.516, 1 HR, 5 BB (31 AB)
Hughes .429/.429/.429, (21 AB)
Tolbert .220/.319/.317, 1HR, 6 BB (41 AB)
Macri .208/.240/.292, 1 BB (24 AB)
Machado .133/.235/.200, 2 SB, 2 BB (15 AB)


Mauer's temporary replacement battle
Butera .400/.455/.400, 1 BB (10 AB)
Morales .200/.188/.200 (15 AB)


Other 25-man roster position player stats:
Casilla .405/.444/.476, 3 BB, 4 SB (42 AB)
Kubel .364/.432/.485, 1 HR, 4 BB (33 AB)
Morneau .286/.348/.524, 1 HR, 2 BB (21 AB)
Harris .333/.444/.400, 5 BB, 1 SB (30 AB)
Punto .313/.353/.438, 1 BB (16 AB)
Redmond .250/.344/.357, 4 BB (28 AB)
Crede .200/.282/.343, 1 HR, 4 BB (35 AB)

Position Player of weeks 1-4:

Carlos Gomez



Honorable mention:, Delmon Young, Jason Kubel, Brian Buscher, Alexi Casilla


Pitchers:

Starter Performance:

Blackburn ERA 0.00, WHIP 0.40, 0 BB, 1 K, 5 IP
Slowey ERA 1.93, WHIP 0.75, 1 BB, 10 K 9.1 IP
Liriano ERA 2.20, WHIP 0.98, 6 BB, 14 K, 16.1 IP
Perkins ERA 2.25, WHIP 1.25, 5 BB, 7 K, 20 IP
Baker ERA 8.25, WHIP 1.80, 2 BB, 14 K, 17.2 IP

Battle for set up man:

Crain 0.00 ERA, WHIP 0.15, 0 BB, 4 K, 6.2 IP
Ayala 0.00 ERA, WHIP 0.33, 0 BB, 1 K, 3 IP
Breslow 1.13 ERA, WHIP 0.50, 1 BB, 11 K, 8 IP

On the bubble; battle for the last 1-2 spots:

Dickey 3.09 ERA, WHIP 1.11, 3 BB, 14 K, 11.2 IP
Humber 5.63, WHIP 1.13, 0 BB, 2 K, 8 IP

Keppel 3.45, WHIP 1.23, 2 BB, 4 K, 7.1 IP
Henn 1.42 ERA, WHIP 1.26, 2 BB, 5 K, 6.1 IP
Duensing 0.90 ERA, WHIP 1.30, 4 BB, 5 K, 10 IP
Jones 2.70 ERA, WHIP 1.40, 3 BB, 5 K, 10 IP

Mijares 12.86 ERA, WHIP 3.00, 9 BB, 6 K, 7 IP

Others in the 25-man Roster:
Nathan 4.50 ERA, WHIP 1.00, 1 BB, 5 K, 6 IP
Guerrier 8.22 ERA, WHIP 1.96, 4 BB, 4 K, 7.2 IP

pitcher of weeks 1-3, spring training:

Jesse Crain




honorable mention: Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn, Fransisco Liriano, Craig Breslow, R.A. Dickey