How much will Mauer's absence cost the Twins?

A couple of weeks ago, I calculated that the Twins will win 90 games this season. This was with Mauer healthy and playing for 150 games. Apparently, Mauer will not be ready for opening day. How much will this cost the Twins in wins? Aaron Gleeman suggested that it will cost the Twins 3-4 wins for the season. My initial assumption when I calculated that the Twins will win 90 was that Mauer will play 150 games. When I reduce the number of games to 100 and increase Redmond's games by 50 and I plug it into my spreadsheet to calculate the wins expected based on team OPS and the sum of individual WAR, the total team wins drop by just one. The wins based on the pitching calculations do not change.


(no need to sell those season tickets yet... because that will still be more than enough margin for the Twins to win the Central. Those predictions are coming up the last week of Spring Training.)

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