2014 off-season Minnesota Twins top 40 prospect countdown: 1-5

This is the eighth segment of the 2014 off-season Twins top 40 prospects, and we entered the top 10.  Prospects 36-40 are here, 31-35 here, 26-30 here , 21-25 here, 16-20 here, 11-15 here, 6-10 here, and you can find all segments in reverse order here.

This is not the last post in these.  For completeness sake, I will have a summary post with all 40 tomorrow.



The number 1 to 5 off-season 2014 Minnesota Twins prospects are:

5. Kohl Stewart RHSP, DOB: 10/7/1994, 6'3", 195 lbs.

Stewart was drafted by the Minnesota Twins in the 1st round (4th overall) of the 2013 from St Pius X (Houston, TX) High School.  Other than a single game started in Elizabethton (4 IP, 1 H, 1 BB, 8 K) he started his pro career in the GCL at age 18, where he pitched in 7 games (4 GS) for 20 innings, walking 3 and striking out 16.  He had a 1.69 ERA and 0.938 WHIP.  

Stewart has 4 pitches that he commands well:  A plus to plus plus mid 90s fastball that peaks at 97-98, a close to plus mid to high 80s slider, an above average high 70s low 80s curveball and a plus low to mid 80s changeup, which is an impressive arsenal for an 18 year old.  Stewart draws comparisons to another Houstonian hurler  and the Twins would be ecstatic if he realizes half of that potential.  He is still getting a feel on how to pitch, but this is expected for someone his age.  Depending on how he shows in Spring Training, I will not be surprised if he starts 2014 at age 19 in Cedar Rapids' rotation.

4. Eddie Rosario LH, 2B, DOB: 9/28/1991, 6'0", 170 lbs.

Eddie Rosario was drafted by the Twins in the 4th round of the 2010 draft from Rafael Lopez Landron (PR) High School as an OF.  Rosario is one of those rare prospects who had success at every step of his pro career with his career slash line at .307/.358/.510 .  His best season was his second pro, age 19 season, 2011 at Elizabethton, where he hit .337/.397/.670 with a career high 21 HRs in 67 games (298 PAs).  He also swiped 17 bases that season. That was his last season as a full time center fielder before converted to a second baseman by the Twins due to their OF wealth.  

He played in Beloit in 2012, with his season cut short with a line drive on the face that broke his jaw bone.  Despite that he finished the season with a .296/.345/.490 slash line.  He moved up to Fort Myers in 2013 (age 21 season) where he hit .329/.377/.527 before moving to New Britain mid season.  In New Britain he hit .284/.330/.412.  In 2013 Rosario played in a career high 122 games with a career high 544 PAs.  If that was not enough, he played at the AFL after this season and continued in the PWL the winter.  Right before he started his appearance in the PWL he communicated to the press that he tested positive for prescription painkillers and was given a 50-day suspension, but at the time of this writing he has yet to be charged officially. 

Rosario has All-Star potential.  A middle infielder with IsoP in the .200s before he hit drinking age, supplemented with good contact and decent plate discipline (he still needs some work on this tool) is rare.  But the key word here is "infielder".  Rosario is still mostly learning the position, but has shown a lot of promise and second base is probably the easiest position in the diamond defensively.  For this, his impending suspension might be a blessing in disguise:  He will give him some necessary rest after about 700 projected plate appearances this year and will give him a couple months in extended spring training to work on his fielding while serving his suspension.  He will likely start 2014 in New Britain.

3. Alex Meyer, RH, DOB: 1/3/1990, 6'9", 220 lbs.

Meyer was drafted in the first round of the 2011 MLB draft by the Washington Nationals out of the University of Kentucky and traded to the Twins last off-season (2012) for Denard Span.  I am not really going to give detailed statistics for the top 3 Twins' prospects, just some information and justification for the rankings.  I assume that everyone knows enough about them at this point.

Meyer was ranked number 83 prospect in baseball by MLB.com before the 2012 season and number 59 from Baseball America and number 40 by MLB.com before last season.  Believe it or not, Meyer is near to major league ready after just 2 professional seasons and at certain teams he would be in their 2014 MLB rotations.  His repertoire includes 3 pitches: a plus plus fastball that averages 94-96 and hits 98-100, a plus to plus plus hard slider at high 80s with a sharp break and an average changeup, which right now is a complementary pitch.  An likely comparable would be a right hand version of Randy Johnson, because their pitching styles and their offerings are so similar.  Developing that changeup will make Meyer truly dominant.  His ceiling is a top of the rotation perennial All Star starter.  Likely will start 2014 (his age 24 season) in Rochester.  He is not on the 40 man roster, but may still get a September call up depending on how the Twins and he is doing.


2. Byron Buxton, RH, CF, DOB: 12/18/1993, 6'2", 189 lbs

Byron Buxton was drafted by the Minnesota Twins in the first round (second overall) of the 2012 draft.  He was rated number 10 prospect in Baseball by Baseball America and number 19 by MLB.com before the 2013 season.  He likely is thought of as the top Twins' prospect by most people.  Why he is not here?  Because I think that Sano is a better player right now, because I saw him strike out in three straight change ups last spring training , because he had not a stellar performance in the AFL, and because at the same level (Fort Myers) at the same season, Miguel Sano (who is just 7 months older) was a better player.  As a matter of fact, other than the Midwest League (and this could very well be Beloit vs Cedar Rapids,) Sano's production was better than Buxton's in the same stops.  Another issue with Buxton's production was that his OPS dropped more than 100 points (from .990 to .887) from Cedar Rapids to Fort Myers. And his BABIP in both stops was a ridiculous .402 and .404, which is about 100 points higher than the combined .303 among the 2 rookie stops the previous 2 seasons.  I don't want to rain on anyone's parade, just color me a tad worried here and not ready to jump in the top prospect in the system bandwagon, when Sano is still a prospect.

On the other hand, Buxton is more of a complete player, having better defense and speed tools than Sano.  He has been compared to Mike Trout, but his overall performance in the Midwest League in the first half of 2013 at the same age (19) was better than Trout's in the same league at the same age.  What is Buxton's ceiling?  Rickey Henderson with a stronger arm and fewer SB (just because they do not steal this much these days.)  He could be a fixture at CF and an All-Star for many years.  But he has to prove himself against AA pitching first and will likely get the chance starting his age 20 2014 season in New Britain.  Twins' fans are wishing for a September call up to the majors, but I think 2015 is more realistic, unless he tears the Eastern League apart and the Twins are competing in September (and both would be great things.)

1. Miguel Sano RH, 3B, DOB: 5/11/1993, 6'3", 195 lbs.

The Twins signed Miguel Sano as a free agent from the Dominican Republic on October of 2009 to a $3.15 million signing bonus.  Before the 2010 season Sano was ranked as the 94th prospect in baseball by BA, before the 2011 season the 60th, before the 2012 season the 18th by BA and 23th by MLB.com and before last season the 9th by BA and 12th by MLB.com In the Byron Buxton entry, I talked about why I think that Sano is a better prospect, but I shouldn't have need to, if I just iterated what I wrote here last August, arguing that he should be the top prospect in baseball after this season, for a great reason.

Miguel Sano is number one as far as I am concerned.  And I am not going to compare him with Miguel Cabrera, like a lot of people do, because a. Miguel Cabrera is a disliked Tiger and b. I think that Sano will be better.  So I will compare him to a beloved Twins' player: Harmon Killebrew.  And those nit pickers who think that Sano's K% of around 25% on each of his age 17 to 20 seasons, need to go no further than realize that the Killer's K% in his age 19 to 22 seasons were 34.8%, 35.5%, 24.2%, and 36.4% respectively.  There is further nit picking on Sano's defense.  I am sure that many of nit pickers picked on his fellow third baseman's when he was coming up as a Senator, but he ended up alright by any measure.  And next season will be Sano's age 21 season.  He will like start 2014 in Rochester with a potential September callup depending on his and the Twins' performance.  He is not on the 40-man roster, so a 2015 MLB appearance, like Buxton, is more likely.

EDIT: I was recently asked (after this was up) whether Sano's elbow issues might change my opinion on the rankings.   The answer is categorically no, the same way that Buxton's shoulder issues do not change my opinion on him.   If any of those injuries are catastrophic, it might be a different story.  My original thoughts were that both Sano and Buxton will not be in the majors until at least 2015, so even that time table is not affected....

Next: Summary of all 1-40.

Offensive performance, wRC+ and #PowerBananas: why Miguel Sano is the best prospect in the game

The art of evaluating performance inside a baseball diamond has undoubtedly changed the last few years with the infusion of science (math & statistic notations.)   In the "good old days" if someone "hit 300", with more than 30 home runs and either more than 100 runs scored or 100 "ribies", he had a great season.  That was the measuring stick that separated great from very good.  And it still does, mainly on the mainstream press, game broadcasts and talk radio.  The expressions "he hits two seventy five" and "he cannot hit his weight" will be there as performance measures, albeit as crude as an Amish scooter is for propelling devise when compared to a Tesla .  Still, even that is light years ahead than the Fred Flintstone mobile of a hitter's performance evaluation, the "eyeballing" method, which introduces measures such as "the special sound a ball makes when leaves the bat" or "the quickness of someone's wrists" or the way "someone is flying on the bases" or something.

There has been evolution.  OPS  as a concept was introduced in 1984, and then was refined to OPS+ or adjusted OPS, that normalizes for park and league effects, plus adds an easy to compare baseline of 100 that is the league average that season, for an easy reference.   So an OPS+ higher than 100 is better than average and less than 100 worse.  Much improved from "ribies" and other cumulative stats, but still one dimensional Gremlin-like.  What OPS lacks, is that it disregards the ability of someone to sacrifice runs, steal bases, score runs, avoid hitting into double plays, and all the other goodies that are happening in real life baseball with the bat or at the bases.

A year after OPS was created, in 1985, Bill James introduced a measure for offensive performance he called Runs Created . This concept has been improved (see previous reference) constantly to account for things like stolen bases and sacrifices.  Tom Tango, eventually improved the concept or Runs Created and morphed it into weighted Runs Created or wRC.  wRC is a good way of looking at someones performance, but (like RC) it is cumulative; think Runs, HRs and RBIs.  This is fine for evaluating a season (like who had the best season in an MVP type of consideration) or whether someone's career is HOF worthy (both cummulative questions; for the record I do prefer WAR over wRC to answer those, since it includes fielding, among other reasons); however it does not answer the question of who performed the best for the time he was on the field (and maybe play him more, or call him "up", if necessary.)  

So we moved from a Gremin to a 'cuda (Yes, I like 'cudas too, especially the Hemi version, but they are not without faults)  Enter wRC+ to the equation.  wRC+ is a lot like OPS+.  It is based on wRC (runs created with the bat and on the bases, independent of league and park,) but it normalized to 100 (denoting league average, like OPS+,) and furthermore it is a rate metric (think UZR/120 vs UZR) so you can look at chunks of performance, moving plate appearance variations (sample size) aside.    A good writeup in basic terms about wRC+ is found here:   This interesting article from Denver Post (an enlightened mainstream newspaper), uses wRC+ to argue the greatness of Carlos Gonzalez.

Here is a real life field test of the effectiveness of cumulative measures like wRC (and WAR) compared to rate stats, like wRC+.  Work with me: Let's rewind to the Twins' last good season (2010) and ask the question: who was the best Twins' player on the field (for the time he played, assuming that it was significant; I like the 200 PA mark as a cut-off point) and try to find an objective quantitative measure to support your argument.  "Ribies" and ball sounds and the like are not allowed.

Here are the top 6 in wRC, a cumulative measure, with Plate Appearances (and OPS for reference) in parenthesis, in descending order.

Joe Mauer 93 (584, .871)
Delmon Young 87 (613, .826)
Michael Cuddyer 82 (675, .753)
Justin Morneau 75 (348, 1.055)
Denard Span 73 (705, .679)
Jim Thome 71 (340, 1.039)

So basically, the cummulative stat, because of the disparity of sample size favors an average player (Cuddyer) and a below average player (Span) because they had twice as many PAs as Morneau and Thome; the "longevity" effect in HOF discussions. 

Let's look at the best wRC+ with a 200 PA minimum (to filter players like Luke Hughes and Carl Pavano who make the list but had less than 10 PAs) :

Justin Morneau 184
Jim Thome 178
Joe Mauer 136
Delmon Young 120
(Danny Valencia 118)
Michael Cuddyer 104
.
.
.
(4 players)
Denard Span 88

This is what wRC+ does.  And this was the season that every single Twins' fan was saying what that season would have been, "if" Morneau did not hit his head.  I hope this little example illustrates the value of wRC+ vs things like wRC and WAR.

After the long but necessary introduction, back to the original subject, Miquel Sano.  If trying to find objective measures that evaluate performance on the field is difficult, finding objective quantitative measures that can estimate future performance, used to discuss who is the best prospect or to create prospect "lists" is borderline impossible (like trying to create a vehicle that is using air for fuel and emits water for exhaust.)  But we can dream and play.   Earlier this year, during the off-season, I looked at potential future performance of the starting pitchers in the Twins' organization using objective quantitative measures.  I will repeat the exercise this coming off-season looking at the position players and the whole slew of pitchers and not only starters.   I will be using wRC+ as the basis of that endeavor, based on the discussion above.  In addition, age and level of play will also be major factors. But for this piece here, before it turns into War and Peace, let's focus on Miguel Sano's performance this season in a quantitative way and putting it in perspective:

Miguel Sano in 243 PAs in A+ (average league age for hitters is 23) at age 20  had a 201 wRC+.  In 190 PAs in AA(average league age for hitters is 24.5) at age 20  he is having a 158 wRC+.   His AA numbers are in flex and we can discuss more after the season is over, but his A+ number are final.  To put that 201 wRC+ in perspective:

- It is the highest in the minors this season (second highest is Chris Colabello with 197 in Rochester, who is well in his prime and older than the average AAA player)
- It has been achieved by only 5 major leaguers in the past 30 years  (mininum 200 PAs): Miguel Cabrera,  Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire, Jeff Bagwell, Frank Thomas; and Cabrera's is this season, so it is not final.

For the fun of it, and the perspective of Sano's dominance, here is a list of all the MLB leaders in wRC+ (and some close to the leaders) with career highs indicated for the last 30 seasons:


2013: Miguel Cabrera, 210, in progress
2012: Mike Trout & Miguel Cabrera tied,  166
2011: Jose Bautista, 180 (career high)
2010: Josh Hamilton, 175 (career high)
2009: Albert Pujols, 180 ; Joe Mauer, 170 (career high)
2008: Albert Pujols, 184 (career high)
2007: David Ortiz & Alex Rodriguez tied, 175 (career high for both)
2006: Travis Hafner, 176 (career high)
2005: Alex Rodriguez, 174
2004: Barry Bonds, 233 (Todd Helton, 166, career high)
2003: Barry Bonds, 212 (Albert Pujols, 184)
2002: Barry Bonds, 244 (Jim Thome 189, Manny Ramirez 185); all three career high
2001: Barry Bonds, 235 (Jason Giambi 193, Sammy Sosa 186; career high for both);
2000: Manny Ramirez, 181
1999: Manny Ramirez, 172 (Mark McGwire, 168)
1998: Mark McGwire, 205 (career high)
1997: Mike Piazza, 183, career high (Frank Thomas, 179, Larry Walker 177, career high)
1996: Mark McGwire, 190 (Garry Sheffield 185, career high)
1995: Edgar Martinez, 182 (career high)
1994: Frank Thomas & Jeff Bagwell, 205 (Albert Belle 186); all three career high
1993: Barry Bonds, 193
1992: Barry Bonds, 198
1991: Frank Thomas, 179 (Chili Davis, 139)
1990: Rickey Henderson, 190 (career high)
1989: Kevin Mitchell, 184 (career high)
1988: Jose Canseco, 169 (career high)
1987: Jack Clark 176, Wade Boggs 171; both career high (Kent Hrbek, 134)
1986: Don Mattingly 160 (career high)
1985: Pedro Guerrero 181 (George Brett 168); both career high
1984: Mike Schmidt 154 (career high)
1983: Wade Boggs 155

And here are the wRC+ career highs and career averages for selected Twins' hitters

Harmon Killebrew, high: 176, 1967; career average: 142
Tony Oliva, high: 154, 1971; career average: 129
Rod Carew, high: 175, 1977; career average: 132
Kent Hrbek: high: 146, 1988 career average: 126
Kirby Puckett: high: 150, 1988 career average: 122
Dave Winfield: high: 161, 1975; career average: 128
Paul Molitor: high: 145 1991; career average: 122
Joe Mauer: high: 170, 2009; career average: 133
Justin Morneau: high: 184, 2010; career average: 118

Sano's career worst wRC+ is 146 last season in Beloit.  As you can see, his wRC+ numbers this season, in combination with his age, his level of play and the average age in that level, are totally out of the stratosphere. 

How about Byron Buxton?   Buxton is only 7 months younger than Sano, and has been playing at a full level below Sano.  So the age/level combination is very similar (but still on Sano's favor).

Here are Buxton numbers:  in 321 PAs in A (average league age for hitters is 21.5) at age 19  had a 173 wRC+.  In 174 PAs in A+ at age 19 (average league age for hitters is 23) he is having a 129 wRC+.   For comparison's sake, the Angels' Mike Trout, at the same age (19), at the same league (Midwest), at the same team (Cedar Rapids) had an identical 173 wRC+.   Objectively, Byron Buxton, looks like he is the prospect Mike Trout was and had a great season in Cedar Rapids (and this is great news for the Twins), but Sano had a monumental season in Fort Meyers.  Better than Morneau's 2010 with the Twins.  I just cannot see how objectively anyone can justify ranking Buxton higher than Sano, or not rank Sano as the number one prospect in baseball this season; unless it is the sound the ball makes when it meets his bat (or something)

Sano is poised to be a centerpiece in the majors for years to come.  Fans will enjoy seeing his #PowerBananas for a long while.  I just hope that they are all with him in a Twins' uniform...

Miguel Angel Sano watch: part II

This morning, Sano officially passed the MLB age and identification investigation: he is who he claims to be and he is 16. Let the bidding war begin.

There are no news as of now. All we know is:

• The Pirates are the only team that has made an official offer


• Mike Radcliff (Twins' VP of player personnel) is in the DR since yesterday


• Sano prefers to play for the Pirates, but his agent is looking for the most money


• The Yankees and Red Sox will not deal with this agent

I will keep an eye in the story and will post any new developments in my twiter. You can follow it here in the panel left to this post (just refresh for the latest updates) or follow me on twitter.

My gut feeling is that some announcement will be out by Monday