OPS+ for the different places in the batting order (2008 based on 2007 OPS+ numbers)
2007 pr.2008 lineup
1 75 56* Gomez
2 86 117 Mauer
3 87 111 Cuddyer
4 95 121 Morneau
5 112 91* Young
6 104 109 Kubel
7 80 106 Harris
8 77 112 Lamb
9 100 56 Everett
*presumably Young and Gomez will increase their 2007 numbers.
Assuming that the starters will not start every game, there would be a 5-10% drop in those numbers due to AB by replacement players. Regardless, there is a huge difference between 2007 and 2008
Showing posts with label lineup. Show all posts
Showing posts with label lineup. Show all posts
3/18/08
Why do I think that the Twins can win this year? Part I 2007 retrospect:
Why do I think that the Twins can win this year?
Let's look at some games they lost last year:
Games that could have been won if Ponson and Ortiz were not starting (7):
4/20 (Ponson) @KCR 11-7 (Punto 3B, Redmond DH, Tyner LF starting)
4/15 (Ponson) KCR 4-3 (Rodriguez 3B, Tyner LF starting)
5/3 (Ortiz) @TBD 4-6 (Punto 3B, Tyner RF, Cirillo DH starting)
5/6 (Ponson) BOS 4-3 (Tyner RF, Cirillo DH, Rodriguez 3B starting)
5/15 (Ortiz) CLE 15-7 (G. Jones DH, Punto 3B starting, Cirillo, Tyner and Rodriguez pinch hitting; this is not a close game but Ortiz gave up 6, Perkins 3 and Crain 6 runs)
5/20 (Ortiz) @MIL 6-5 ((Punto 3B, Ford LF, Heitz C starting)
5/26 (Ortiz) Tor 9-8 (Cirillo 3B, Punto SS starting)
Cames that injured or inadequate relievers lost (8):
4/29 (Crain) @Det 4-3 (Punto 3B, Redmond DH, Rodriguez 2b starting)
8/1 (Rincon) KCR 5-3 (Tyner RF, Punto PH)
8/28 (Cali) @CLE 6-5 (Punto 2B, Tyner LF)
9/4 (DePaula) CLE 7-5 (White LF, Heitz C, Rodriguez 3B)
9/7 (DePaula) @CHW 11-10 (Tyner LF, G. Jones DH, Heintz C, Punto 2B)
9/8 (Cali) @CHW 8-7 (Tyner LF, Rodriguez 2B, Morales C, Punto SS)
9/26 (Blackburn) @Det 9-4 (White DH, Rodriguez 3B, Punto SS)
9/29 (Blackburn) @Bos 6-4 (Tyner LF, White DH, Rodriguez 2B)
1-2 run games lost starting Tyner, R. White, Cirillo, Punto, Rodriguez etc..., not mentioned above (26):
4/13 TBD 4-2 (Punto 3B, Rabe LF and Rodriguez DH)
4/22 @KCR 3-1 (Punto 3B, Rabe LF, Redmond DH)
4/24 CLE 5-3 (Tyner DH, Punto 3b)
4/29 DET 4-3 (Punto 3B, Redmond DH, Rodriguez 2B)
5/2 @TBD 4-3 (Punto 3B, Cirillo DH, Tyner RF)
5/4 BOS 2-0 (Punto 3B, Rabe RF)
5/17 CLE 2-0 (G. Jones DH, Punto 3B)
6/2 @ OAK 1-0 (Cirillo DH, Punto 3B)
6/3 @ OAK 4-2 (Punto 3B, Tyner DH)
6/9 WAS 3-1 (Punto 3B, Tyner DH)
6/22 @FLA 5-4 (Cirillo 3B, Ford LF)
6/27 TOR 5-4 (Punto 3B, Ford RF)
7/1 @DET 1-0 (Punto 3B, Tyner DH)
7/7 @CHW 3-1 (Cirillo DH, Punto 3B, Ford LF)
7/17 DET 1-0 (Cirillo DH, Tyner LF, Punto 3B)
7/18 DET 3-2 (Cirillo DH, Ford LF, Punto 3B)
7/19 DET 4-3 (G. Jones RF, Punto 3B, Tyner CF)
7/23 @TOR 6-4 (White DH, Tyner RF, Punto 3B)
8/9 @KCR 1-0 (White DH, Rodriguez 3B)
8/11 @LAA 4-3 (Punto 3B, White LF)
8/13 @SEA 4-3 (Punto 3B, Tyner DH, White LF)
8/29 @CLE 4-3 (White DH, Tyner LF, Punto 3B)
9/14 DET 4-2 (White LF, Punto 3B)
9/15 DET 4-3 (G. JOnes DH, Rodriguez 2B, Punto 3B)
9/16 DET 6-4 (Tyner LF, Heintz C, Rodriguez 2B, Punto SS)
9/21 CWS 6-4 (LeCroy DH, Ford LF, Punto 3B)
Total games 26+8+7=41...
Let's very conservatively assume that the Twins this year will win 1/4 of these games, due to upgrades in batting, the rotation and bullpen. That would be 10 games, giving them a record of 89-73 and easily making the playoffs, esp. given that most of these wins are on division rivals. The Twins' 2007 Record against division rivals was:
vs CHW 9-9
vs CLE 4-14
vs DET 6-12
vs KCR 9-9
Let's look at some games they lost last year:
Games that could have been won if Ponson and Ortiz were not starting (7):
4/20 (Ponson) @KCR 11-7 (Punto 3B, Redmond DH, Tyner LF starting)
4/15 (Ponson) KCR 4-3 (Rodriguez 3B, Tyner LF starting)
5/3 (Ortiz) @TBD 4-6 (Punto 3B, Tyner RF, Cirillo DH starting)
5/6 (Ponson) BOS 4-3 (Tyner RF, Cirillo DH, Rodriguez 3B starting)
5/15 (Ortiz) CLE 15-7 (G. Jones DH, Punto 3B starting, Cirillo, Tyner and Rodriguez pinch hitting; this is not a close game but Ortiz gave up 6, Perkins 3 and Crain 6 runs)
5/20 (Ortiz) @MIL 6-5 ((Punto 3B, Ford LF, Heitz C starting)
5/26 (Ortiz) Tor 9-8 (Cirillo 3B, Punto SS starting)
Cames that injured or inadequate relievers lost (8):
4/29 (Crain) @Det 4-3 (Punto 3B, Redmond DH, Rodriguez 2b starting)
8/1 (Rincon) KCR 5-3 (Tyner RF, Punto PH)
8/28 (Cali) @CLE 6-5 (Punto 2B, Tyner LF)
9/4 (DePaula) CLE 7-5 (White LF, Heitz C, Rodriguez 3B)
9/7 (DePaula) @CHW 11-10 (Tyner LF, G. Jones DH, Heintz C, Punto 2B)
9/8 (Cali) @CHW 8-7 (Tyner LF, Rodriguez 2B, Morales C, Punto SS)
9/26 (Blackburn) @Det 9-4 (White DH, Rodriguez 3B, Punto SS)
9/29 (Blackburn) @Bos 6-4 (Tyner LF, White DH, Rodriguez 2B)
1-2 run games lost starting Tyner, R. White, Cirillo, Punto, Rodriguez etc..., not mentioned above (26):
4/13 TBD 4-2 (Punto 3B, Rabe LF and Rodriguez DH)
4/22 @KCR 3-1 (Punto 3B, Rabe LF, Redmond DH)
4/24 CLE 5-3 (Tyner DH, Punto 3b)
4/29 DET 4-3 (Punto 3B, Redmond DH, Rodriguez 2B)
5/2 @TBD 4-3 (Punto 3B, Cirillo DH, Tyner RF)
5/4 BOS 2-0 (Punto 3B, Rabe RF)
5/17 CLE 2-0 (G. Jones DH, Punto 3B)
6/2 @ OAK 1-0 (Cirillo DH, Punto 3B)
6/3 @ OAK 4-2 (Punto 3B, Tyner DH)
6/9 WAS 3-1 (Punto 3B, Tyner DH)
6/22 @FLA 5-4 (Cirillo 3B, Ford LF)
6/27 TOR 5-4 (Punto 3B, Ford RF)
7/1 @DET 1-0 (Punto 3B, Tyner DH)
7/7 @CHW 3-1 (Cirillo DH, Punto 3B, Ford LF)
7/17 DET 1-0 (Cirillo DH, Tyner LF, Punto 3B)
7/18 DET 3-2 (Cirillo DH, Ford LF, Punto 3B)
7/19 DET 4-3 (G. Jones RF, Punto 3B, Tyner CF)
7/23 @TOR 6-4 (White DH, Tyner RF, Punto 3B)
8/9 @KCR 1-0 (White DH, Rodriguez 3B)
8/11 @LAA 4-3 (Punto 3B, White LF)
8/13 @SEA 4-3 (Punto 3B, Tyner DH, White LF)
8/29 @CLE 4-3 (White DH, Tyner LF, Punto 3B)
9/14 DET 4-2 (White LF, Punto 3B)
9/15 DET 4-3 (G. JOnes DH, Rodriguez 2B, Punto 3B)
9/16 DET 6-4 (Tyner LF, Heintz C, Rodriguez 2B, Punto SS)
9/21 CWS 6-4 (LeCroy DH, Ford LF, Punto 3B)
Total games 26+8+7=41...
Let's very conservatively assume that the Twins this year will win 1/4 of these games, due to upgrades in batting, the rotation and bullpen. That would be 10 games, giving them a record of 89-73 and easily making the playoffs, esp. given that most of these wins are on division rivals. The Twins' 2007 Record against division rivals was:
vs CHW 9-9
vs CLE 4-14
vs DET 6-12
vs KCR 9-9
1/29/08
Updated lineups after the Santana trade
Lineup:
Carlos Gomez CF
Joe Mauer C
Michael Cuddyer RF
Justin Morneau 1B
Delmon Young LF
Jason Kubel DH
Mike Lamb 3B
Brendan Harris 2B
Adam Everett SS
Mike Redmond (Bench)
Nick Punto (Bench)
Craig Monroe (Bench)
Two positions (Jason Pridie/Matt Macri/Brian Buscher/Alexi Casilla/Tommy Watkins/Alejandro Machado) (Bench)
Pitching staff:
Francisco Liriano (SP)
Scott Baker (SP)
Boof Bonser (SP)
Kevin Slowey (SP)
Mike Humber/Dan Perkins/Nick Blackburn/Brian Duensing/Anthony Swarzak/Kevin Mulvey
Joe Nathan (CL)
Pat Neshek (RP)
Jesse Crain (RP)
Matt Guerrier (RP)
Dennys Reyes (RP)
Juan Rincon (RP)
Potentially a free agent centerfielder could be signed moving Gomez to the bench, however other than Lofton, there are no centerfielders that would potentially produce as well as Gomez or match his defence. This trade gives the Twins a very good defensive outfield as all 3 potential starters have great arms and Gomez has excellent range. A potential victim of the numbers might be Craig Monroe, depending on his spring training production. Also, there is a surplus of starting pitching at the AAA/AAAA level, which might indicate that the Twins might be interested in pulling another trade.
Carlos Gomez CF
Joe Mauer C
Michael Cuddyer RF
Justin Morneau 1B
Delmon Young LF
Jason Kubel DH
Mike Lamb 3B
Brendan Harris 2B
Adam Everett SS
Mike Redmond (Bench)
Nick Punto (Bench)
Craig Monroe (Bench)
Two positions (Jason Pridie/Matt Macri/Brian Buscher/Alexi Casilla/Tommy Watkins/Alejandro Machado) (Bench)
Pitching staff:
Francisco Liriano (SP)
Scott Baker (SP)
Boof Bonser (SP)
Kevin Slowey (SP)
Mike Humber/Dan Perkins/Nick Blackburn/Brian Duensing/Anthony Swarzak/Kevin Mulvey
Joe Nathan (CL)
Pat Neshek (RP)
Jesse Crain (RP)
Matt Guerrier (RP)
Dennys Reyes (RP)
Juan Rincon (RP)
Potentially a free agent centerfielder could be signed moving Gomez to the bench, however other than Lofton, there are no centerfielders that would potentially produce as well as Gomez or match his defence. This trade gives the Twins a very good defensive outfield as all 3 potential starters have great arms and Gomez has excellent range. A potential victim of the numbers might be Craig Monroe, depending on his spring training production. Also, there is a surplus of starting pitching at the AAA/AAAA level, which might indicate that the Twins might be interested in pulling another trade.
12/14/07
Updated lineups after the Everett signing
Lineup:
Jason Pridie CF
Delmon Young LF
Joe Mauer C
Michael Cuddyer RF
Justin Morneau 1B
Jason Kubel DH
Brendan Harris 2B
Brian Buscher 3B
Adam Everett SS
Mike Redmond (Bench)
Nick Punto (Bench)
Alexi Casilla (Bench)
Garrett Jones (Bench)
Craig Monroe (Bench)
Pitching staff:
Johan Santana (SP)
Francisco Liriano (SP)
Scott Baker (SP)
Boof Bonser (SP)
Kevin Slowey (SP)
Joe Nathan (CL)
Pat Neshek (RP)
Jesse Crain (RP)
Matt Guerrier (RP)
Dennys Reyes (RP)
Juan Rincon (RP)
Jason Pridie CF
Delmon Young LF
Joe Mauer C
Michael Cuddyer RF
Justin Morneau 1B
Jason Kubel DH
Brendan Harris 2B
Brian Buscher 3B
Adam Everett SS
Mike Redmond (Bench)
Nick Punto (Bench)
Alexi Casilla (Bench)
Garrett Jones (Bench)
Craig Monroe (Bench)
Pitching staff:
Johan Santana (SP)
Francisco Liriano (SP)
Scott Baker (SP)
Boof Bonser (SP)
Kevin Slowey (SP)
Joe Nathan (CL)
Pat Neshek (RP)
Jesse Crain (RP)
Matt Guerrier (RP)
Dennys Reyes (RP)
Juan Rincon (RP)
12/12/07
Cuddyer is uncomfortable at 3B, True or False?
There is a conception that a switch of Mike Cuddyer back to 3B would diminish his performance. Several sources indicate that Cuddyer performs worse at 3B. Most recently, MLB.com Twins beat reporter Kelly Thesier, wrote:
Cuddyer has the ability to play a variety of positions, but it's in right field that he has truly thrived, both defensively and offensively. After the unsuccessful experiment at third base, Cuddyer talked about never truly finding a comfort level there.
Here is a more in depth look at Mike's performance at 3B vs. RF:
As a 3B in 502 ABs he hit for .263 BA with a .329 OBP and .442 slugging for a total OPS of .771. At that span he hit 19 home runs with 59 RBI. He had 47 BB and 105 K. His per bat numbers are 26.4 AB/HR and 8.51 AB/RBI. His K/BB ratio was: 2.23
As a RF in 1268 ABs he hit for .275 BA with a .352 OBP and .452 slugging for a total OPS of .808. At that span he hit 40 home runs with 200 RBI. He had 138 BB and 283 K. His per bat numbers are 31.7 AB/HR and 6.34 AB/RBI. His K/BB ratio was: 2.05
Indeed, his RBI numbers improved as did his BB and gap power. His home runs declined. Is that a result of the move to the RF or is a result of maturing as a hitter and/or hitting ofter betweeen Mauer and Morneau while playing a RF vs. in the 7th and 8th hole as a 3B?
As far as his fielding goes, his FP at 3B was .942 (with league average .957) and range factor 2.70 (with league average 2.76). At RF, in 2006, his FP was .981 (league average .984) and range factor 1.87 (league average 2.20). In 2007: FP .986 (league average .985), range factor 2.02 (league average 2.08). Conclusion, his fielding both at 3B and RF is close to (albeit a bit below) league average, which indicates that his fielding does not suffer much at 3B...
It all depends whether the Twins could find a better 3B via free agency or trade. Here are some names and how they may compare (2007 numbers):
Mike Lamb
Batting: .289BA/.366OBP/.453SLG/1.25K/BB/28.3AB/HR
Fielding: FP:.936 (League average .954) RF 2.53 (2.68)
Morgan Ensberg
Batting: .230BA/.320OBP/.404SLG/1.76K/BB/23.5AB/HR
Fielding: FP:.929 (League average .954) RF 2.61 (2.68)
Scott Rolen
Batting: .265BA/.331OBP/.398SLG/1.51K/BB/49AB/HR
Fielding: FP:.969 (League average .954) RF 2.99 (2.68)
Pedro Feliz
Batting: .253BA/.290OBP/.418SLG/2.41K/BB/27.85AB/HR
Fielding: FP:.973 (League average .954) RF 2.91 (2.68)
for comparison purposes, Mike's 2007 Batting stats and 3B fielding stats
Batting: .276BA/.356OBP/.433SLG/1.67K/BB/34.18AB/HR
Fielding: FP:.942 (League average .957) RF 2.70 (2.76)
From the third basemen listed here, only Rolen and Feliz are superior fielders and only Mike Lamb is a superior hitter. Mike Lamb would potentially be an improvement offensively, but his defense suffers so much that the Astro's switched him to 1B. Feliz strikes out too much and his OBP is dismal. Rolen is an interesting situation, since he is superior defensively and a change of scenery might return him to an above average offensive player. The Rolen gamble might pay off if the price is right. Mike Cuddyer is here and free...
Cuddyer has the ability to play a variety of positions, but it's in right field that he has truly thrived, both defensively and offensively. After the unsuccessful experiment at third base, Cuddyer talked about never truly finding a comfort level there.
Here is a more in depth look at Mike's performance at 3B vs. RF:
As a 3B in 502 ABs he hit for .263 BA with a .329 OBP and .442 slugging for a total OPS of .771. At that span he hit 19 home runs with 59 RBI. He had 47 BB and 105 K. His per bat numbers are 26.4 AB/HR and 8.51 AB/RBI. His K/BB ratio was: 2.23
As a RF in 1268 ABs he hit for .275 BA with a .352 OBP and .452 slugging for a total OPS of .808. At that span he hit 40 home runs with 200 RBI. He had 138 BB and 283 K. His per bat numbers are 31.7 AB/HR and 6.34 AB/RBI. His K/BB ratio was: 2.05
Indeed, his RBI numbers improved as did his BB and gap power. His home runs declined. Is that a result of the move to the RF or is a result of maturing as a hitter and/or hitting ofter betweeen Mauer and Morneau while playing a RF vs. in the 7th and 8th hole as a 3B?
As far as his fielding goes, his FP at 3B was .942 (with league average .957) and range factor 2.70 (with league average 2.76). At RF, in 2006, his FP was .981 (league average .984) and range factor 1.87 (league average 2.20). In 2007: FP .986 (league average .985), range factor 2.02 (league average 2.08). Conclusion, his fielding both at 3B and RF is close to (albeit a bit below) league average, which indicates that his fielding does not suffer much at 3B...
It all depends whether the Twins could find a better 3B via free agency or trade. Here are some names and how they may compare (2007 numbers):
Mike Lamb
Batting: .289BA/.366OBP/.453SLG/1.25K/BB/28.3AB/HR
Fielding: FP:.936 (League average .954) RF 2.53 (2.68)
Morgan Ensberg
Batting: .230BA/.320OBP/.404SLG/1.76K/BB/23.5AB/HR
Fielding: FP:.929 (League average .954) RF 2.61 (2.68)
Scott Rolen
Batting: .265BA/.331OBP/.398SLG/1.51K/BB/49AB/HR
Fielding: FP:.969 (League average .954) RF 2.99 (2.68)
Pedro Feliz
Batting: .253BA/.290OBP/.418SLG/2.41K/BB/27.85AB/HR
Fielding: FP:.973 (League average .954) RF 2.91 (2.68)
for comparison purposes, Mike's 2007 Batting stats and 3B fielding stats
Batting: .276BA/.356OBP/.433SLG/1.67K/BB/34.18AB/HR
Fielding: FP:.942 (League average .957) RF 2.70 (2.76)
From the third basemen listed here, only Rolen and Feliz are superior fielders and only Mike Lamb is a superior hitter. Mike Lamb would potentially be an improvement offensively, but his defense suffers so much that the Astro's switched him to 1B. Feliz strikes out too much and his OBP is dismal. Rolen is an interesting situation, since he is superior defensively and a change of scenery might return him to an above average offensive player. The Rolen gamble might pay off if the price is right. Mike Cuddyer is here and free...
12/4/07
Current rosters and projected lineups
Current 40 men roster (the ones most likely not to make the 25-man roster in parenthesis). For the 25 men roster members their roles and batting order in parenthesis:
Pitchers:
Johan Santana (SP)
Francisco Liriano (SP)
Scott Baker (SP)
Boof Bonser (SP)
Kevin Slowey (SP)
Joe Nathan (CL)
Pat Neshek (RP)
Jesse Crain (RP)
Matt Guerrier (RP)
Dennys Reyes (RP)
Juan Rincon (RP)
(Nick Blackburn)
(Carmen Cali)
(Julio DePaula)
(Glen Perkins)
Batters:
Alexi Casilla (SS,1)
Delmon Young (LF, 2)
Joe Mauer (C,3)
Michael Cuddyer (RF, 4)
Justin Morneau (1B, 5)
Jason Kubel (DH,6)
Brendan Harris (2B, 7)
Jason Pridie (CF,8)
Brian Buscher (3B, 9)
Mike Redmond (Bench)
Nick Punto (Bench)
Jason Tyner (Bench)
Garrett Jones (Bench)
Craig Monroe (Bench)
(Jose Morales)
(Chris Basak)
(Darnell McDonald)
A lot of things will change... There are several empty spots on the roster, way too many RPs, and question marks on the top spot and spots 7-9 on the lineup... updates as they come
Pitchers:
Johan Santana (SP)
Francisco Liriano (SP)
Scott Baker (SP)
Boof Bonser (SP)
Kevin Slowey (SP)
Joe Nathan (CL)
Pat Neshek (RP)
Jesse Crain (RP)
Matt Guerrier (RP)
Dennys Reyes (RP)
Juan Rincon (RP)
(Nick Blackburn)
(Carmen Cali)
(Julio DePaula)
(Glen Perkins)
Batters:
Alexi Casilla (SS,1)
Delmon Young (LF, 2)
Joe Mauer (C,3)
Michael Cuddyer (RF, 4)
Justin Morneau (1B, 5)
Jason Kubel (DH,6)
Brendan Harris (2B, 7)
Jason Pridie (CF,8)
Brian Buscher (3B, 9)
Mike Redmond (Bench)
Nick Punto (Bench)
Jason Tyner (Bench)
Garrett Jones (Bench)
Craig Monroe (Bench)
(Jose Morales)
(Chris Basak)
(Darnell McDonald)
A lot of things will change... There are several empty spots on the roster, way too many RPs, and question marks on the top spot and spots 7-9 on the lineup... updates as they come
11/28/07
Fresh out of the box
A potential trade with the Rays, involving six players. Matt Garza, Jason Bartlett and Juan Rincon for Delmon Young, Brendan Harris and Jason Pridie. Updated chart from the previous post:
Pitching staff:
SP *Francisco Liriano (207, 2006)
SP *Glen Perkins 138
SP Scott Baker 102 (133, 2005)
SP Boof Bonser 85 (106, 2006)
SP Kevin Slowey 92
CL Joe Nathan 230 (283, 2006)
RP Pat Neshek 147 (204, 2006)
RP Matt Guerrier 184
RP Jesse Crain 79 (164, 2005)
RP *Dennys Reyes 109 (504, 2006)
RP *Carmen Cali 92
and the up to date status of the lineup:
C *Joe Mauer 117 (144, 2006)
1B *Justin Morneau 121 (140, 2006)
2B #Alexi Casilla 39
3B *Brian Buscher 76
SS Brendan Harris 106
LF/DH *Jason Kubel 109
RF Michael Cuddyer 111 (124, 2006)
CF Delmon Young 98 (106, 2006)
DH/LF Craig Monroe 65 (104, 2005)
bench:
OF Jason Pridie (.914 OPS in AAA)
3B #Nick Punto 52 (90, 2006)
OF *Jason Tyner 85 (97, 2005)
C Mike Redmond 89 (103, 2006)
IF #Luis Rodriguez 57 (90, 2005)
A few items of interest: Delmon Young is a better RF than a CF and Pridie is a very good CF. Could it be possible that Cuddyer moves back to 3B with Young in RF and Priddie in CF? Harris is a better 2B than a SS, could it be possible that he is meant to be a 2B with Jose Reyes coming in a Santana trade for SS?
more details as they come...
Pitching staff:
SP *Francisco Liriano (207, 2006)
SP *Glen Perkins 138
SP Scott Baker 102 (133, 2005)
SP Boof Bonser 85 (106, 2006)
SP Kevin Slowey 92
CL Joe Nathan 230 (283, 2006)
RP Pat Neshek 147 (204, 2006)
RP Matt Guerrier 184
RP Jesse Crain 79 (164, 2005)
RP *Dennys Reyes 109 (504, 2006)
RP *Carmen Cali 92
and the up to date status of the lineup:
C *Joe Mauer 117 (144, 2006)
1B *Justin Morneau 121 (140, 2006)
2B #Alexi Casilla 39
3B *Brian Buscher 76
SS Brendan Harris 106
LF/DH *Jason Kubel 109
RF Michael Cuddyer 111 (124, 2006)
CF Delmon Young 98 (106, 2006)
DH/LF Craig Monroe 65 (104, 2005)
bench:
OF Jason Pridie (.914 OPS in AAA)
3B #Nick Punto 52 (90, 2006)
OF *Jason Tyner 85 (97, 2005)
C Mike Redmond 89 (103, 2006)
IF #Luis Rodriguez 57 (90, 2005)
A few items of interest: Delmon Young is a better RF than a CF and Pridie is a very good CF. Could it be possible that Cuddyer moves back to 3B with Young in RF and Priddie in CF? Harris is a better 2B than a SS, could it be possible that he is meant to be a 2B with Jose Reyes coming in a Santana trade for SS?
more details as they come...
Number crunching
What does it take to win the big one? Here is a look of the World Champions since 1995, and the players that OPS+ or ERA+ more than 150 that season. Team OPS+ and ERA+ numbers are also listed
2007 Red Sox
David Ortiz (DH)
Jonathan Papelbon (CL)
Hideki Okajima (RP)
Javier Lopez (RP)
Josh Beckett (SP, 145)
team OPS+ 107, ERA+ 123
2006 Cardinals
Albert Pujols (1B)
Chris Carpenter (SP, 144)
Adam Wainwright (RP, 143)
Brad Thompson (RP, 133)
Team OPS+ 101, ERA+ 98
2005 White Sox
Dustin Hermanson (CL)
Neal Cotts (RP)
Cliff Politte (RP)
Mark Buehrle (SP, 144)
team OPS+ 95, ERA+ 124
2004 Red Sox
Manny Ramirez (OF)
David Ortiz (DH, 145)
Curt Schilling (SP)
Keith Foulke (CL)
Scott Williamson (RP)
Team OPS+ 111, ERA+ 116
2003 Marlins
Derrek Lee (1b, 131)
Ugueth Urbina(CL)
Josh Beckett (SP, 138)
Team OPS+ 104, ERA+ 104
2002 Angels
Troy Percival(CL)
Brendan Donnelly (RP)
Ben Weber (RP)
Team OPS+ 105, ERA+ 120
2001 Diamondbacks
Luis Gonzalez (OF)
Curt Schilling (SP)
Randy Johnson (SP)
Byung-Hyun Kim (CL)
Bret Prinz (RP)
Team OPS+ 101, ERA+ 120
2000 Yankees
Bernie Williams (OF, 140)
Jorge Posada (C, 139)
Mariano Rivera (CL)
Jeff Nelson (RP)
Team OPS+ 104, ERA+ 101
1999 Yankees
Derek Jeter (SS)
Bernie Williams (CF,149)
Mariano Rivera (CL)
David Cone (SP, 137)
Jason Grimsley (RP, 131)
Team OPS+ 110, ERA+ 114
1998 Yankees
Bernie Williams (OF)
Mariano Rivera (CL)
Graeme Lloyd (RP)
Orlando Hernandez (SP, 141)
Darren Holmes (RP, 133)
Team OPS+ 117, ERA+ 116
1997 Marlins
Gary Sheffield (OF, 138)
Moises Alou (OF, 130)
Kevin Brown (SP)
Team OPS+ 104, ERA+ 106
1996 Yankees
Bernie Williams (OF, 131)
David Cone (SP)
John Wetteland (CL)
Mariano Rivera (RP)
Team OPS+ 100, ERA+ 108
1995 Braves
Ryan Klesko (OF)
Greg Maddux (SP)
Mark Wohlers (CL)
Greg McMichael(RP)
Tom Glavine (SP, 139)
John Smoltz (SP, 134)
Pedro Borbon (RP, 138)
Team OPS+ 96, ERA+ 124
Average: OPS+ 104, ERA+113
So basically, in addition to the above benchmarks, a team needs at least one batter at OPS+ more or about 150, and a closer, a reliever and a starter at ERA+ more or about 150. Let's look at the Twins averages, the last 3 years
Team averages:
2007 OPS+ 93, ERA+ 104
2006 OPS+ 101, ERA+ 113
2005 OPS+ 88, ERA+ 119
Players with 150+
2007
Joe Nathan (CL)
Matt Guerrier (RP)
Johan Santana (SP, 130)
Pat Neshek (RP, 149)
best position players: Justin Morneau 121, Torri Hunter 122.
2006
Joe Mauer(C, 144)
Justin Morneau (1B, 140)
Johan Santana (SP)
Francisco Liriano (SP)
Joe Nathan (CL)
Juan Rincon (RP)
Dennys Reyes (RP)
Matt Guerrier (RP, 133)
2005
Johan Santana (SP)
Scott Baker (SP, 133)
Matt Guerrier (RP, 131)
Best position player: Matt LeCroy, 110
2007 Red Sox
David Ortiz (DH)
Jonathan Papelbon (CL)
Hideki Okajima (RP)
Javier Lopez (RP)
Josh Beckett (SP, 145)
team OPS+ 107, ERA+ 123
2006 Cardinals
Albert Pujols (1B)
Chris Carpenter (SP, 144)
Adam Wainwright (RP, 143)
Brad Thompson (RP, 133)
Team OPS+ 101, ERA+ 98
2005 White Sox
Dustin Hermanson (CL)
Neal Cotts (RP)
Cliff Politte (RP)
Mark Buehrle (SP, 144)
team OPS+ 95, ERA+ 124
2004 Red Sox
Manny Ramirez (OF)
David Ortiz (DH, 145)
Curt Schilling (SP)
Keith Foulke (CL)
Scott Williamson (RP)
Team OPS+ 111, ERA+ 116
2003 Marlins
Derrek Lee (1b, 131)
Ugueth Urbina(CL)
Josh Beckett (SP, 138)
Team OPS+ 104, ERA+ 104
2002 Angels
Troy Percival(CL)
Brendan Donnelly (RP)
Ben Weber (RP)
Team OPS+ 105, ERA+ 120
2001 Diamondbacks
Luis Gonzalez (OF)
Curt Schilling (SP)
Randy Johnson (SP)
Byung-Hyun Kim (CL)
Bret Prinz (RP)
Team OPS+ 101, ERA+ 120
2000 Yankees
Bernie Williams (OF, 140)
Jorge Posada (C, 139)
Mariano Rivera (CL)
Jeff Nelson (RP)
Team OPS+ 104, ERA+ 101
1999 Yankees
Derek Jeter (SS)
Bernie Williams (CF,149)
Mariano Rivera (CL)
David Cone (SP, 137)
Jason Grimsley (RP, 131)
Team OPS+ 110, ERA+ 114
1998 Yankees
Bernie Williams (OF)
Mariano Rivera (CL)
Graeme Lloyd (RP)
Orlando Hernandez (SP, 141)
Darren Holmes (RP, 133)
Team OPS+ 117, ERA+ 116
1997 Marlins
Gary Sheffield (OF, 138)
Moises Alou (OF, 130)
Kevin Brown (SP)
Team OPS+ 104, ERA+ 106
1996 Yankees
Bernie Williams (OF, 131)
David Cone (SP)
John Wetteland (CL)
Mariano Rivera (RP)
Team OPS+ 100, ERA+ 108
1995 Braves
Ryan Klesko (OF)
Greg Maddux (SP)
Mark Wohlers (CL)
Greg McMichael(RP)
Tom Glavine (SP, 139)
John Smoltz (SP, 134)
Pedro Borbon (RP, 138)
Team OPS+ 96, ERA+ 124
Average: OPS+ 104, ERA+113
So basically, in addition to the above benchmarks, a team needs at least one batter at OPS+ more or about 150, and a closer, a reliever and a starter at ERA+ more or about 150. Let's look at the Twins averages, the last 3 years
Team averages:
2007 OPS+ 93, ERA+ 104
2006 OPS+ 101, ERA+ 113
2005 OPS+ 88, ERA+ 119
Players with 150+
2007
Joe Nathan (CL)
Matt Guerrier (RP)
Johan Santana (SP, 130)
Pat Neshek (RP, 149)
best position players: Justin Morneau 121, Torri Hunter 122.
2006
Joe Mauer(C, 144)
Justin Morneau (1B, 140)
Johan Santana (SP)
Francisco Liriano (SP)
Joe Nathan (CL)
Juan Rincon (RP)
Dennys Reyes (RP)
Matt Guerrier (RP, 133)
2005
Johan Santana (SP)
Scott Baker (SP, 133)
Matt Guerrier (RP, 131)
Best position player: Matt LeCroy, 110
Definitely, 2006 was they year they contended and the numbers prove it. Can the current team become a winner? What would it take?
Assuming Santana is traded, here are last years' OPS+ or ERA+ for the remaining players (the
single season best from the last 3 years and the year is in parentesis, if last year was not
the 3 last season's best):
C *Joe Mauer 117 (144, 2006)
1B *Justin Morneau 121 (140, 2006)
3B #Nick Punto 52 (90, 2006)
SS Jason Bartlett 88 (99, 2006)
LF *Jason Kubel 109
RF Michael Cuddyer 111 (124, 2006)
OF *Jason Tyner 85 (97, 2005)
C Mike Redmond 89 (103, 2006)
2B #Alexi Casilla 39
IF #Luis Rodriguez 57 (90, 2005)
3B *Brian Buscher 76
DH/1B *Garrett Jones 60
OF/DH Craig Monroe 65 (104, 2005)
SP Boof Bonser 85 (106, 2006)
SP Scott Baker 102 (133, 2005)
SP Matt Garza 118
SP Kevin Slowey 92
SP *Francisco Liriano (207, 2006)
CL Joe Nathan 230 (283, 2006)
RP Pat Neshek 147 (204, 2006)
RP Matt Guerrier 184
RP Juan Rincon 85 (181, 2005)
RP *Dennys Reyes 109 (504, 2006)
SP *Glen Perkins 138
RP *Carmen Cali 92
RP Jesse Crain 79 (164, 2005)
This is how a potential pitching staff could play out:
SP *Francisco Liriano (207, 2006)
SP *Glen Perkins 138
SP Scott Baker 102 (133, 2005)
SP Matt Garza 118
SP Boof Bonser 85 (106, 2006) @
SP Kevin Slowey 92
CL Joe Nathan 230 (283, 2006) @
RP Pat Neshek 147 (204, 2006)
RP Matt Guerrier 184
RP Jesse Crain 79 (164, 2005)
RP Juan Rincon 85 (181, 2005) @
RP *Dennys Reyes 109 (504, 2006) @
RP *Carmen Cali 92
average ERA+
( @ = potential trade target)
and the up to date status of the lineup:
C *Joe Mauer 117 (144, 2006)
1B *Justin Morneau 121 (140, 2006)
2B #Alexi Casilla 39 @
3B *Brian Buscher 76 @
SS Jason Bartlett 88 (99, 2006)
LF *Jason Kubel 109
RF Michael Cuddyer 111 (124, 2006)
DH/1B *Garrett Jones 60 @
OF/DH Craig Monroe 65 (104, 2005) @
bench:
3B #Nick Punto 52 (90, 2006)
OF *Jason Tyner 85 (97, 2005)
C Mike Redmond 89 (103, 2006)
IF #Luis Rodriguez 57 (90, 2005)
@ = target for upgrade
What would it take for this team to contend?
Assuming that all pitching trades are made:
This team has the potential to have a 110+ ERA+ average, with proper development of the
players, the addition of one good bullpen arm from the minors or trades. At least 3
starters (Liriano, Perkins, Garza) and at least 3 relievers (Nessek, Guerrier, Crain) have
the potential of an 130+ average. If everything goes as planned, the pitching could be
contention worthy.
The lineup is a different story. Best case scenario: Mauer, Morneau, Cuddyer and Bartlett
return to their 2006 form and Kubel improves from 2007, the team needs an upgrade in the CF,
DH, 2B and 3B with players averaging at least 100 OPS+.
Twins needs, wants and recent rumor analysis - part one: Santana
La Velle Neal just indicated that the Twins cleared up 2 positions on their 40 man roster, indicating that there is a potential acceleration of events regarding either a Johan Santana trade or a SoCal-initiated rumored trade that would bring Morneau to the Angels or even a Boston-globe remark regarding a straight up Coco Crisp trade.
Johan is pretty much at the apex of his trading value (if not on its downside). A quick comparison of similar pitchers at his age reveals names such as John Candelaria, Bob Welch, Jack McDowell, Sid Fernandez, Kevin Millwood, Kevin Appier, and Mike Mussina. Good pitchers, sometimes great but certainly no Hall of Famers or pitchers who you should spent 30% of your payroll for. I realize that this is a projection and Johan right now is probably the best pitcher in baseball, but I think that the numbers make the point. If there is the potential for a deal with the Yankees (as rumored) including Robinson Cano as the centerpiece with Melky Cabrera and one of the Yankee pitching prospects added to the deal, it might make a lot of sense for the Twins.
In this segment I am commenting on the possible returns on a Santana trade.
The main needs of the Twins before this postseason were: 2B, 3B, DH with emphasis on power and right hand bats. After Hunter's signing with the Angels, there is an additional hole in CF. Also, after Castillo's departure, there is a need for a lead off hitter (and overall speed in the lineup) which apparently cannot be satisfied by Casilla at this point
The major want of the Twins brass is to keep the payroll within the 70-75 million dollar range, before the new stadium opens.
Given these parameters, a Santana trade better happen and a couple of additional trades could go long ways. Let me explain:
Johan is pretty much at the apex of his trading value (if not on its downside). A quick comparison of similar pitchers at his age reveals names such as John Candelaria, Bob Welch, Jack McDowell, Sid Fernandez, Kevin Millwood, Kevin Appier, and Mike Mussina. Good pitchers, sometimes great but certainly no Hall of Famers or pitchers who you should spent 30% of your payroll for. I realize that this is a projection and Johan right now is probably the best pitcher in baseball, but I think that the numbers make the point. If there is the potential for a deal with the Yankees (as rumored) including Robinson Cano as the centerpiece with Melky Cabrera and one of the Yankee pitching prospects added to the deal, it might make a lot of sense for the Twins.
My favorite Santana trade for the Twins would be with the Dodgers for Matt Kemp, Andy LaRoche, Johnathan Broxton and Clayton Kershaw. Kemp and LaRoche will plug the holes in the CF and 3B, bringing strong RH power and Broxton could be the closer (with Kershaw waiting in the wings developing in the minors) as soon as Nathan walks or is traded. Furthermore, the addition of Santana, might pull the Dodgers over the edge in a pretty balanced NL West and crown them Champions.
Still, this picture, even though it addresses the Twins' right hand power and 3B/CF needs, does not address the speed/lead off hitter and DH needs. Monroe hopefully is not the team's answer to the DH position. Hot off the press is a speculation that the Mets might be big players in the Santana sweepstakes, with Reyes as the centerpiece and probably a center fielder (Milledge/Gomez) and a pitcher or two added. This would be a steal for the Twins, since it would provide a great lead of hitter and solve the CF problem. This would probably require Bartlett to move to 2B, a position he played only twice in the minors... Additionally, the needs at 3B, DH and right hand power would need to be addressed.
A possible lineup with the Mets trade would look like this (ages as of 2007 in parenthesis):
SS Reyes (24)
2B Bartlett (27)/Punto (29)
C Mauer (24)
RF Cuddyer (28)
1B Morneau (26)
CF Milledge (22)/Gomez (21)
LF Kubel (25)/Monroe (30)
DH Monroe (30)/Kubel (25)/ G. Jones (26)
3B Buscher (26)/Punto (29)
additional bench: Tyner (30), Redmond (36), Casilla (22)
SP Liriano (23)
SP Slowley (23)
SP Garza (23)
SP Bonser (25)
SP Baker (25)/Blackburn (25)/Perkins (24)
RP Rincon (28)
RP Neshek (26)
RP Reyes (30)/ De Paula (24)
RP Guerrier (28)/ Crain (25)
CL Nathan (32)
Observations:
1. This is a young and fairly inexperienced team with a lot of potential upside and would probably entering its peak when the Twins enter the new ballpark. Would this team be able to contend before that?
2. A lot depends on the development of these players. Cuddyer, Morneau, Punto and Mauer had career years in 2006 then regressed in 2007, would they be able to improve in 2008? Bartlett and Kubel had good years in 2007 (esp. late), would they be able to repeat or improve in 2008?
3. Would Buscher hold the 3b job? (he is another left handed bat, his fielding percentage in the minors was .938; but his OPS was .897 in AAA)
4. Still with a Santana trade, there is a surplus in both starting and relieving pitching, with several others (Duensing, Pino, Manship, Delaney, Tippett) a year or two away, which makes additional trades possible or even necessary.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
