Number crunching

What does it take to win the big one? Here is a look of the World Champions since 1995, and the players that OPS+ or ERA+ more than 150 that season. Team OPS+ and ERA+ numbers are also listed

2007 Red Sox
David Ortiz (DH)
Jonathan Papelbon (CL)
Hideki Okajima (RP)
Javier Lopez (RP)
Josh Beckett (SP, 145)
team OPS+ 107, ERA+ 123

2006 Cardinals
Albert Pujols (1B)
Chris Carpenter (SP, 144)
Adam Wainwright (RP, 143)
Brad Thompson (RP, 133)
Team OPS+ 101, ERA+ 98

2005 White Sox
Dustin Hermanson (CL)
Neal Cotts (RP)
Cliff Politte (RP)
Mark Buehrle (SP, 144)
team OPS+ 95, ERA+ 124

2004 Red Sox
Manny Ramirez (OF)
David Ortiz (DH, 145)
Curt Schilling (SP)
Keith Foulke (CL)
Scott Williamson (RP)
Team OPS+ 111, ERA+ 116

2003 Marlins
Derrek Lee (1b, 131)
Ugueth Urbina(CL)
Josh Beckett (SP, 138)
Team OPS+ 104, ERA+ 104

2002 Angels
Troy Percival(CL)
Brendan Donnelly (RP)
Ben Weber (RP)
Team OPS+ 105, ERA+ 120

2001 Diamondbacks
Luis Gonzalez (OF)
Curt Schilling (SP)
Randy Johnson (SP)
Byung-Hyun Kim (CL)
Bret Prinz (RP)
Team OPS+ 101, ERA+ 120

2000 Yankees
Bernie Williams (OF, 140)
Jorge Posada (C, 139)
Mariano Rivera (CL)
Jeff Nelson (RP)
Team OPS+ 104, ERA+ 101

1999 Yankees
Derek Jeter (SS)
Bernie Williams (CF,149)
Mariano Rivera (CL)
David Cone (SP, 137)
Jason Grimsley (RP, 131)
Team OPS+ 110, ERA+ 114

1998 Yankees
Bernie Williams (OF)
Mariano Rivera (CL)
Graeme Lloyd (RP)
Orlando Hernandez (SP, 141)
Darren Holmes (RP, 133)
Team OPS+ 117, ERA+ 116

1997 Marlins
Gary Sheffield (OF, 138)
Moises Alou (OF, 130)
Kevin Brown (SP)
Team OPS+ 104, ERA+ 106

1996 Yankees
Bernie Williams (OF, 131)
David Cone (SP)
John Wetteland (CL)
Mariano Rivera (RP)
Team OPS+ 100, ERA+ 108

1995 Braves
Ryan Klesko (OF)
Greg Maddux (SP)
Mark Wohlers (CL)
Greg McMichael(RP)
Tom Glavine (SP, 139)
John Smoltz (SP, 134)
Pedro Borbon (RP, 138)

Team OPS+ 96, ERA+ 124



Average: OPS+ 104, ERA+113

So basically, in addition to the above benchmarks, a team needs at least one batter at OPS+ more or about 150, and a closer, a reliever and a starter at ERA+ more or about 150. Let's look at the Twins averages, the last 3 years

Team averages:
2007 OPS+ 93, ERA+ 104
2006 OPS+ 101, ERA+ 113
2005 OPS+ 88, ERA+ 119

Players with 150+
2007


Joe Nathan (CL)
Matt Guerrier (RP)
Johan Santana (SP, 130)
Pat Neshek (RP, 149)

best position players: Justin Morneau 121, Torri Hunter 122.
2006

Joe Mauer(C, 144)
Justin Morneau (1B, 140)
Johan Santana (SP)
Francisco Liriano (SP)
Joe Nathan (CL)
Juan Rincon (RP)
Dennys Reyes (RP)
Matt Guerrier (RP, 133)
2005
Johan Santana (SP)
Scott Baker (SP, 133)
Matt Guerrier (RP, 131)
Best position player: Matt LeCroy, 110

Definitely, 2006 was they year they contended and the numbers prove it. Can the current team become a winner? What would it take?

Assuming Santana is traded, here are last years' OPS+ or ERA+ for the remaining players (the

single season best from the last 3 years and the year is in parentesis, if last year was not

the 3 last season's best):

C *Joe Mauer 117 (144, 2006)
1B *Justin Morneau 121 (140, 2006)
3B #Nick Punto 52 (90, 2006)
SS Jason Bartlett 88 (99, 2006)
LF *Jason Kubel 109
RF Michael Cuddyer 111 (124, 2006)
OF *Jason Tyner 85 (97, 2005)
C Mike Redmond 89 (103, 2006)
2B #Alexi Casilla 39
IF #Luis Rodriguez 57 (90, 2005)
3B *Brian Buscher 76
DH/1B *Garrett Jones 60

OF/DH Craig Monroe 65 (104, 2005)


SP Boof Bonser 85 (106, 2006)
SP Scott Baker 102 (133, 2005)
SP Matt Garza 118
SP Kevin Slowey 92
SP *Francisco Liriano (207, 2006)
CL Joe Nathan 230 (283, 2006)
RP Pat Neshek 147 (204, 2006)
RP Matt Guerrier 184
RP Juan Rincon 85 (181, 2005)
RP *Dennys Reyes 109 (504, 2006)
SP *Glen Perkins 138
RP *Carmen Cali 92
RP Jesse Crain 79 (164, 2005)


This is how a potential pitching staff could play out:

SP *Francisco Liriano (207, 2006)
SP *Glen Perkins 138
SP Scott Baker 102 (133, 2005)
SP Matt Garza 118
SP Boof Bonser 85 (106, 2006) @
SP Kevin Slowey 92

CL Joe Nathan 230 (283, 2006) @
RP Pat Neshek 147 (204, 2006)
RP Matt Guerrier 184
RP Jesse Crain 79 (164, 2005)
RP Juan Rincon 85 (181, 2005) @
RP *Dennys Reyes 109 (504, 2006) @
RP *Carmen Cali 92

average ERA+
( @ = potential trade target)
and the up to date status of the lineup:

C *Joe Mauer 117 (144, 2006)
1B *Justin Morneau 121 (140, 2006)
2B #Alexi Casilla 39 @
3B *Brian Buscher 76 @
SS Jason Bartlett 88 (99, 2006)
LF *Jason Kubel 109
RF Michael Cuddyer 111 (124, 2006)
DH/1B *Garrett Jones 60 @
OF/DH Craig Monroe 65 (104, 2005) @

bench:
3B #Nick Punto 52 (90, 2006)
OF *Jason Tyner 85 (97, 2005)
C Mike Redmond 89 (103, 2006)
IF #Luis Rodriguez 57 (90, 2005)

@ = target for upgrade


What would it take for this team to contend?

Assuming that all pitching trades are made:

This team has the potential to have a 110+ ERA+ average, with proper development of the

players, the addition of one good bullpen arm from the minors or trades. At least 3

starters (Liriano, Perkins, Garza) and at least 3 relievers (Nessek, Guerrier, Crain) have

the potential of an 130+ average. If everything goes as planned, the pitching could be

contention worthy.

The lineup is a different story. Best case scenario: Mauer, Morneau, Cuddyer and Bartlett

return to their 2006 form and Kubel improves from 2007, the team needs an upgrade in the CF,

DH, 2B and 3B with players averaging at least 100 OPS+.