The state of the Twins pitching and trade possibilities

The general consensus is that the Achilles heel of the Twins this season has been pitching, both starters and relievers. The Front Office had tried to help the team by targeting certain pitchers before the non-waiver trading deadline, but these efforts were fruitless, probably due to the fact that most contenders this season were looking for pitching and it was a sellers market. The Twins were able to fill a lesser need, acquiring Orlando Cabrera from the Oakland Athletics for Tyler Ladendorf, a move which I analyzed here. Now the trading deadline is long passed and the Twins could add to the club through waiver trades. As a matter of fact, the Twins are in an advantage over the other American League contenders because they have the worse record of the bunch, which results in the Twins having priority on waiver calls for players placed on waivers by other American League teams. Unfortunately, unless an National League player passes through waivers, the Twins will probably not be able to add an NL player through a claim, since all National League clubs, including the Dodgers, who have the best record in the majors have priority over the AL Clubs on players waived by NL teams.

Here I will attempt to do two things:

1. Using objective criteria look at the current state of Twins' pitching


2. Using the same criteria look at possible targets who might improve the Twins' pitching in the stretch run

The objective criteria I am using is Pitching Efficiency or PE, defined as: (K/9*K/BB)/WHIP and a newly devised metric, expected PE or xPE, defined as PE*(BABIP/.290). A few words about xPE: xPE is the expected pitching efficiency if a pitcher had balls in play batter for an average of .290; in other words, trying to take "bad luck" out of the equation.

With no further ado, and because a picture (or a table) is worth more than a thousand words (add your favorite cliche), here is a table that shows each Twins' pitcher's PE and xPE in 2009 (and its components). Also the team average and the AL average, as well as the AL average for starters and the AL average for relievers are also shown. (The same table shows potential targets' metrics, but I will talk about them later) Twins' pitchers' metics better than the AL average for starters or relievers (in any individual metric) are in bold, starters with PE or xPE better than the AL average are highlighted in yellow and relievers with PE or xPE better than the AL average are highlighed in green:



Here are my conclusions:

• Surprising the overall team pitching looks better than the AL average; the reason for this is that 2 starters (Slowey and Baker) and 2 relievers (Nathan and Guerrier) are much higher than the AL average


• Looking at the starters, there were only 3 starters higher than the AL starter average, Slowey, Baker, Liriano; but, unfortunately, the Twins has lost their best starter for most (or all) of the season


• Looking at the relievers, there were only 3 relievers higher than the AL reliever average, Nathan, Guerrier, Ayala; but, unfortunately, personality clashes with the coaching staff and the manager, resulted to the release of the Twins third-best reliever


• Perkins, Swarzak and Blackburn trail by far (in best to worse order) the AL starter average (about a month ago at a point where several have anointed him "the ace" or the "stopper", I indicated that Blackburn was living on the edge based on his PE, and his latest ineffectiveness did not surprise me)


• Mijares, Crain, Dickey, Keppel and Duensing trail by far (in best to worse order) the AL reliever average. Keppel and Duensing are very close to replacement level and are much worse that the pitchers they replaced (Ayala and Breslow/Henn)

Is there hope?

Of course, there is always hope; however, lets look at who could potentially help the Twins, instead of being existentialistic or fatalistic.

Today Joe Heyman in Sports Illustrated posted 3 lists of players:

1. Players who are likely to pass through waivers


2. Players who might pass through waivers


3. Players who will not pass through waivers, but a trade could be made by the claiming team

I did the following:

• Took the pitcher's from Heyman's lists, with the exceptions of NL pitchers in his last (#3) category and pitcher like Roy Halladay and Felix Hernandez, for whom the Twins are extremely unlike to work a trade


• Calculated their PE and xPE and listed it on the table above (broken down by Heyman's 3 categories)


• As with the Twins' pitchers earlier, every metric higher than the AL average corresponding to a starter or a reliever is on bold, if a starter has higher PE and/or xPE than the AL average for starters he is highlighted in yellow and if a reliever has a higher PE and/or xPE than the AL average for relievers, he is highlighted in green

The result is only 5 names, 2 starters and 3 relievers from Heyman's list, are better than the AL Average in their respective functions. Let's examine then:

• Aaron Harang. Despite the fact that he is playing for an NL team (the Reds), his numbers are good enough to translate into a legitimate above average pitcher in the AL. For 2009 his contract is $11 million (about $4.5 million left), he is under contract for $12.5 million in 2010 and there is club option for $12.75 million in 2011 (with a $2 million buyout). I think that if he passes waivers, as Heyman suggests, with the Reds are looking to reduce payroll after the Rolen acquisition, if the Twins are willing to spend $19 million for the next 2 years, he might be part of the solution


• Ron Mahay. He barely made that list because of his high BABIP this season. He plays for an AL Central team (Royals). The Twins do not trade within the division. Is he better than Mijares? Maybe. Is he better than Duensing? Yes. Will it happen. No.


• Carl Pavano. The man who was once traded (by the Red Sox to the Expos) for Pedro Martinez is on a very nice rebound this season. He is on an one year contract with about $600,000 left, which is great. Unfortunately he is pitching for the Indians and as long as the Twins' are not trading within the division, it is not happening.


• Mike Wuertz. He is on a tear. The Twins' tried to trade for him with the A's and it did not work out before the deadline. Now that the Twins are in an advantage as far as AL-waiver claims go (because having the worst record among the contenders, they can claim him before anyone else), it will be interesting to see whether they could work a trade with the As. Wuertz (who btw is from Austin, the home of SPAM, not Texas) is under team control for 2009 and 2010, arbitration-eligible for 2010 and is owed about $400,000 for the rest of the season. The issue here is whether the Twins might be willing to give up someone like Anthony Slama and a lower level prospect for him, because that will probably be what it takes (As PTBNL) to get Wuertz in his home state Twins' uniform, give or take. He could also be part of the solution


• Jason Frasor. A lot of the things that I said earlier about Wuetz, apply to Frazor, other than the facts that Frazor is not effective as Wuertz this year, he is from the land of Lincoln (the president, not the car), he pitches for the Blue Jays and he is a free agent after this season (he has about $500,000 remaining in his contract). And, yes, he will be cheaper. Will the Twins decide to give Rene Tosoni (a Canadian OF) to the Jays and a lower prospect as PTBNL? We'll see, but he can also be part of the solution

So here it is: Best case scenario: Aaron Harang, Mike Wuertz and Jason Frazor. Worse case scenario: Do nothing. Realistic scenario: We'll see, but I think that it will fall in-between those two extremes...

A dark horse trade target for the Twins

With the recent wrist injury to Kevin Slowey and the relative ineffectiveness and inexperience of the pitching rotation, it would be wise for the Twins to target an experienced starting pitcher. Roy Halladay is available but the cost might be prohibitive for the Twins (it will likely take one or two good young arms and an additional highly ranked prospects). Jarod Washburn might be available, but he will likely be a high priced (in players) two-month rental.

I think that there is a dark horse in the race who currently plays with an organization that has been a trading partner for the Twins. As most dark horses, there are some apparent problems on the surface, but there are potential slices of hope. Who is he?

He is a former Cy Young award winner who was offered a very large free agent contract and the last two seasons prior to the current, his performance has been that much sub-par that he practically defines the term "free agent bust" in the baseball world:

Barry Zito

Before you place a call to the nice people with the white coats to come and rescue me, listen to my reasoning:

• The Giants might be willing to bite the bullet and eat most of his salary. There have been calls and indications that the Giants might release him before the season is over. His contract looks like this:09:$18.5M, 10:$18.5M, 11:$18.5M, 12:$19M, 13:$20M, 14:$18M club option ($7M buyout); option vests with 200 IP in 2013 or 400 IP in 2012-13 or 600 IP 2011-13. If you assume that the option will vest, he will be owned $84.5 million until 2014. If a team is assuming to pay $5 million of this over the next 4.5 seasons plus add a couple of so-so players with no future in their organization (think Humber/Macri) , it will be a win for the Giants over giving him his outright release.


• OK, he will really come cheap, but how could he be better than say a Ramon Ortiz or a Sidney Ponson or, more importantly, the current pitchers the Twins have in their rotation? Here is why: This season, Zito seems to have overcome his nagging injuries and pitching at least as effectively as in his last (All Star) season with the A's (2006):
  
  
  • His peripherals are 1.406 WHIP, 6.8 K/9, 1.82 K/BB (.293 BABIP); his 2006 All Star season numbers: 1.403 WHIP, 6.1 K/9, 1.53 K/BB(.285 BABIP)
  
  
  • His fastball velocity is the highest that have been since 2005 and it has been more effective in getting batters out since 2005
  
  
  • His newly developed (and frequently thrown this season) slider and his signature curve ball are very effective out pitches. His curveball is more effective this season than has ever been, including his Cy Young 2002 season, as measured by curveball runs above average per 100 pitches thrown (see previous link)
  
  
  • This season he has been throwing 3.90 pitches per batter he faced. This is the second best of his career, behind his 2006 season when he threw a close 3.88 pitches per batter


• Both with the A's and the Giants he has been among the leaders in Pitching abuse points (2009 data on the link; change the years to see the other season rankings). Moving into an organization that does not let pitchers' arms fall off, might help him.
  

Will he ever return to his previous glory? Who knows? He is 31 and under contract until his age 36 season (assuming the option vests). Based on these numbers and the trending, I am convinced that in the right organization he would be at least a decent number three starter with a contact that would burden his next team a little more than a million a season. That is not bad and it is something that the Twins should look into

Where have you gone Aaron Heilman? (And a contest and a plug)

One of the biggest disappointments last season for the New York Mets was Aaron Heilman. Aaron was one of the greatest college pitchers in his time and the Mets used a first round draft pick for him. In his first 3 years he was mainly used as a starter and has a one hitter complete game in his books. He finished 2007 as the Mets' primary set up man with 3.03 ERA and 1.070 WHIP. Last season he took a huge step back performing at a 5.21 ERA and 1.592 WHIP rate. He definitely is expendable by the Mets and is arbitration eligible. Is he someone that the Twins should consider for their pen?

His biggest problem last year was that, even though he increased his K/9 to a very good 9.47, his K/BB dropped to 1.74. Scouting reports show that his fastball velocity increased to an average of 93.3 mph and was his out pitch, but his change up velocity also increased to 84 mph, making it a less ineffective pitch. In his effective 2007 Heilman threw 62% fastballs, 37.5% changeups and 0.5% sliders. In his ineffective 2008, Heilman developped an unexpected love with his not that effective slider (as an off-spead pitch), throwing it 15% of the time and decreasing his changeup rate to 24%. His changeup has location problems and this was the main reason for the decreased use. Is Heilman "fixable"? Until I looked at the pictures below, I had my questions:

2007:


2008:


Now I don't. I think that there is a good probability for improvement of his change up and becoming a great set up reliever again.

Any guesses why I think that?

The person who would be the first to guess the answer correctly and completely, would receive a copy of Seth Stohs' Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook – 2009. the best Twins Prospect handbook ever written. And if you do not win, make sure you order one. The price is right and no Twins' fan should be left without it.

I'll close the contest a week from today. And here is a hint: It is not the fact that his BABIP was .326, which is way too high and will certainly go down next year.

EDIT 12/1/2008:

Contest closed. And it was probably more esoteric and hard that I thought... It's all in the grip. In 2007 he was throwing a circle change and for some reason in 2008 he changed (pun not intended) to a three-finger change grip. Also notice that in his 3-finger grip, the index and middle finger are gripping the ball on the seams (like a sinker) instead of gripping across the seams (like a 4-seamer fastball), which is the proper grip for a 3-finger change up.

Not to worry, I ordered five copies of Seth's book and will give 4 of them away in monthly contests before the season starts