Pat Neshek, the forgotten man in the Twins organization

Exactly three months ago, I made the case that Pat Neshek should be the Twins' closer, in the absence of Joe Nathan. Unfortunately, these days he seems to be the forgotten man in the Twins organization by the fans, by the media and, unfortunately by the team.

Calls for improvement of the bullpen, either focus on acquiring second class outsize talent (Aardsma) or promoting one of the "Rochester studs", referring to Slama and Waldrop. I think that the solution is much easier: Promote Pat Neshek.

Pat played in 8 games already in Rochester and other than a single unfortunate outing when he was used in back to back games, he has been lights out. Here are his numbers compared to those of Slama and Waldrop, if you exclude that single outing:



There is no comparison. Pat has been twice as effective as Anthony Slama and is way ahead of Kyle Waldrop. Also he is on the 40-man roster.

I had the opportunity to watch Pat pitch against the Lehigh Valley Ironpigs (on the TV) a few days ago on June 29th. He pitched 2/3 of an inning and retired both batters he faced, striking out one of them. His velocity is back (the stadium radar was indicating between 88 and 91 fastball) and more importantly his movement, control and command are back. He needs to be in the bigs. The Twins need him in Minessota, instead of Ron Mahay, who has been an one batter pitcher and taking a spot from better players.

Is this another case of cutting your nose to spite your face situation, that Ron Gardenhire is so used to? If you remember, Pat was misdiagnosed earlier this year with a finger ailment by the Twins' medical staff. When he was correctly diagnosed with a palm ailment, he was frustrated and voiced his frustration publicly. Ron Gardenhire did not like that. I think that the Twins should really look into having the best players in Minnesota (I can make a similar case about Jose Morales vs. Drew Butera, but that's a whole different story) and do not try to stand behind the proven inept medical staff of this team.

Free Pat Neshek now!

The Case for Pat Neshek as the Twins closer in 2010

Earlier this week I called my fellow Twins' bloggers to arms, introducing today, Friday 2, 2010, as "Free Pat Neshek day". The Twins' manager, Ron Garderhire, has decided to replace the injured Joe Nathan, by "a committee of closers", which will include, Jon Rauch, Matt Guerrier, Jose Mijares and Jesse Crain, depending on the situation. I strongly believe that Pat Neshek should have been named the Twins' closer and I will give you my supporting arguments for feeling this way, bellow. Please stay tuned here during the day, because I will be editing this page adding links to the other Free Pat Neshek Day blogs in the bottom of the page, as they appear.

Why do I think that Pat Neshek deserves to be the 2010 closer for the Minnesota Twins? Let me count the ways:

1. Closer by Committee is not a good idea

Every ballplayer, especially bullpen pitchers will tell you that they would like to have an idea about their role and an idea about when they might go into a game based on that role to psychologically prepare themselves. A closer committee of 4 would destroy this and will overtax the pen, especially with Gardenhire's tendacies to play matchups and keep pitchers to face same handed batters. A closer needs to be named.


2. Pat Neshek has excelled in every step of his career

A little known fact is that the Twins liked Pat Neshek enough to draft him twice: In the 44th round of the 1999 draft out of Park Center High School in Brooklyn Park, MN (he did not sign but elected to attend Bulter University) and in the 6th round of the 2002 draft as a College junior. He was the only player drafted from a Butler team that finished 34-24 and in the 4th place of the Horizon League. He was signed by Twins' scout Bill Milos who also signed Joe Benson, Brian Dinkelman, Erik Lis and Jeff Manship.

Pat made the transition from an average starter (13 GS -and 7 complete games!- 1.36 WHIP, 9.7 K/9, 4.23 K/BB) in his college junior year to a lights out reliever (0.695 WHIP, 6.83 K/BB, 13.5 K/9, 15 saves) in Elizabethton (high rookie) the same season (2002). And Pat never looked back: In 2003, playing in Quad Cities (A), Fort Myers (high A) and New Britain (AA) he pitched in a rhythm of 0.967 WHIP, 11 K/9, 4.35 K/BB for a season total of 17 saves. And this is moving up 3 levels. In 2004, he had a setback in New Britain after starting the season in Ft Myers and still delivered a 1.304 WHIP, 9.6 K/9 and 2.85 K/BB. In 2005 he was the New Britain close with 24 saves, 1.093 WHIP, 10.4 K/9 and 4.52 K/BB. Next season he was promoted to Rochester (AAA) where he finished that campaign with 14 saves, 0.917 WHIP, 13 K/9 and 6.21 K/BB before he was promoted to the Twins, where he was instrumental in their drive to the division title, finishing his rookie MLB season with 0.784 WHIP, 12.9 K/9 and 8.83 K/BB. The next season, 2007, he was the Twins' main set up man and produced 1.009 WHIP, 9.5 K/9 and 2.74 K/BB. He was hurt in 2008 and only pitched in 15 games. He was instructed to rest his arm and when that did not work, he underwent Tommy John surgery missing the entire 2009 season.


3. Lets look how Neshek's career performance compares to a couple of "desirable" closers

If the Twins were to announce that they have traded for a healthy Huston Street or Heath Bell, there would have been a huge sigh of relief (pun intended,) by the collective Twins' Territory. Here is a comparison of the MLB career numbers of Huston Street and Heath Bell to those of Pat Neshek (best in each pair, in bold):

WHIP Steet: 1.040, Neshek: 0.961
K/9 Street: 9.30, Neshek: 10.65
K/BB Street: 3.75, Neshek: 3.84
OBA in save situations: Street: .215, Neshek: .183
OBA of first batter faced: Street: .227, Neshek: .131
OBA in high leverage situations: Street: .234, Neshek: .154

WHIP Bell: 1.205 Neshek: 0.961
K/9 Bell: 9.20, Neshek: 10.65
K/BB Bell: 3.19, Neshek: 3.84
OBA in save situations: Bell: .232, Neshek: .183
OBA of first batter faced: Bell: .222, Neshek: .131
OBA in high leverage situations: Bell: .228, Neshek: .154

The truth (which a lot of people apparently do not want to see) is that Neshek has pitched better in his career than Huston Street and Heath Bell, especially in situations critical to a closer.To add to this point, here is a comparison of the career numbers of Joe Nathan and Pat Neshek:

WHIP Nathan: 1.107, Neshek: 0.961
K/9 Nathan: 9.40, Neshek: 10.65
K/BB Nathan: 2.74, Neshek: 3.84
OBA in save situations: Nathan: .140, Neshek: .183
OBA of first batter faced: Nathan: .201, Neshek: .131
OBA in high leverage situations: Nathan: .190, Neshek: .154

It looks to me that the "irreplaceable", could potentially be replaced with someone who has been more effective in his career than Joe Nathan.


4. Let's bust some myths

Myth #1: To be a successful closer, a pitcher needs MLB closing experience and Pat Neshek has no closer experience.

Pat Neshek finished 164 games in the minors and accumulated 82 saves. This is more than most close have in their minor league careers before they assume the closer role. As I indicated last week, Neshek's performance indicates that he would make a better closer than other options (e.g Rauch) who did save games in their MLB careers. As a matter of fact, Luis Ayala has 18 career saves in the majors, last time I checked, he is still available...

Myth #2: A closer has to be able to pitch in back to back games, and in 3 games in a row and Neshek might not be able to do that.

This is a good one for a couple of reasons: first of all, the Twins have not tried to see whether Neshek can pitch back to back games this spring, they just assumed that he can not. Secondly, this is more of a fiction than a fact. If you look at the 70 games that Nathan appeared in 2009, only 22 of his appearances (that's less than a third, if you keep score) were back to back. And before Nathan was named the Twins' closer, he never pitched back to back games. Also, the Twins cannot assume that Pat Neshek cannot pitch back to back games unless they hand him the ball in back to back games and he proves them right (hopefully he proves them wrong.)

Myth #3: Pat's delivery is "too funky" to be a closer.

Dan Quisenberry and Kent Tekulve beg to disagree

Myth #4: you cannot trust a closer 1.5 years removed from Tommy John surgery.

Let's look at the performance of all relievers who had Tommy John surgery and compare their performance the year before surgery with the year they came back from surgery. Fortunately (or unfortunately) there is a large number of them so the sample size is not small (age of surgery in parenthesis for some), to see how "trustworthy" they were after they came back from Tommy John surgery


Luis Ayala:
2005: 2.66 ERA, 1.254 WHIP, 5.1 K/9, 2.86 K/BB
2007: 3.19 ERA, 1.299 WHIP, 6.0 K/9, 2.33 K/BB

Danny Baez:
2007: 6.44 ERA, 1.570 WHIP, 5.2 K/9, 1.0 K/BB
2009: 4.02 ERA, 1.130 WHIP, 5.0 K/9, 1.82 K/BB

Rod Beck (33):
2001: 3.90 ERA, 1.302 WHIP, 7.0 K/9, 2.25 K/BB, 6 SV
2003: 1.78 ERA, 1.019 WHIP, 8.2 K/9, 2.91 K/BB, 22 SV

Ryan Dempster:
2003: 6.54 ERA, 1.764 WHIP, 6.5 K/9, 1.20 K/BB (as a starter)
2005: 3.13 ERA, 1.435 WHIP, 8.7 K/9, 1.82 K/BB, 33 SV

Octavio Dotel:
2005: 3.52 ERA, 1.370 WHIP, 9.4 K/9, 1.45 K/BB, 7 SV
2007: 4.11 ERA, 1.337 WHIP, 12.0 K/9, 3.42 K/BB, 11 SV

Brendan Donnelly (36):
2007: 3.05 ERA, 1.161 WHIP, 6.5 K/9, 3.00 K/BB
2009: 1.78 ERA, 1.224 WHIP, 8.9 K/9, 2.78 K/BB

Willie Eyre:
2007: 5.16 ERA, 1.618 WHIP, 5.6 K/9, 1.31 K/BB
2009: 4.50 ERA, 1.333 WHIP, 4.0 K/9, 1.33 K/BB

John Franco (41):
2001: 4.05 ERA, 1.388 WHIP, 8.4 K/9, 2.63 K/BB
2003: 2.62 ERA, 1.398 WHIP, 4.2 K/9, 1.23 K/BB

Al Reyes (35):
2005: 2.15 ERA, 0.926 WHIP, 9.6 K/9, 3.35 K/BB, 2 SV
2007: 4.90 ERA, 1.154 WHIP, 10.4 K/9, 3.33 K/BB, 26 SV

Arthur Rhodes (37):
2006: 5.32 ERA, 1.686 WHIP, 9.5 K/9, 1.6 K/BB, 4 SV
2008: 2.04 ERA, 1.245 WHIP, 10.2 K/9, 2.5 K/BB, 2 SV

David Riske (23):
1999: 8.36 ERA, 1.857 WHIP, 10.3 K/9, 2.67 K/BB
2001: 1.98 ERA, 1.390 WHIP, 9.5 K/9, 1.61 K/BB, 1 SV

Fernando Rodney (26):
2003: 6.07 ERA, 1.753 WHIP, 10.0 K/9, 1.94 K/BB, 3 Sv
2005: 2.86 ERA, 1.273 WHIP, 8.6 K/9, 2.47 K/BB, 9 SV

B. J. Ryan (31):
2006: 1.37 ERA, 0.857 WHIP, 10.7 K/9, 4.3 K/BB, 38 SV
2008: 2.95 ERA, 1.276 WHIP, 9.0 K/9, 2.07 K/BB, 32 SV

Rafael Soriano (24):
2003: 1.53 ERA, 0.792 WHIP, 11.5 K/9, 5.67 K/BB, 1 SV
2005: 2.45 ERA, 0.955 WHIP, 11.0 K/9, 9.00 K/BB

John Smoltz (33):
1999: 3.19 ERA, 1.116 WHIP, 7.5 K/9, 3.9 K/BB (as a starter)
2001: 3.36 ERA, 1.068 WHIP, 8.7 K/9, 5.7 K/BB, 10 SV

Billy Wagner (36):
2008: 2.30 ERA, 0.894 WHIP, 10.0 K/9, 5.20 K/BB
2009: 1.72 ERA, 1.021 WHIP, 14.9 K/9, 3.25 K/BB


So chances are that Pat Neshek will be fine...



5. He is more trusted by the fans than the rest of the Twins' bullpen arms

Not much of a scientific argument (or any argument at all) towards having Pat as a closer, but as you can see in this Star Tribune Poll or about 2500 Twins' fans more fans trust Pat than anyone else in the Twins' pen. Not a supportive argument at all, just a statement, albeit an important one.

There is a lot of evidence that Pat Neshek is the best pitcher to assume the closer role for the 2010 season. It is up to Gardy and Andy to do the right thing.



A final note: There are several other Twins' bloggers participating in this Pat Neshek day. I will be listing links to their blogs, as they appear here, so please come back (Note to Twins' bloggers participating: please leave your blog URL in comments or send me an email so I can link it here).

Other Pat Neshek Day Blogs:

Free Pat Neshek day: April 2nd

Andrew Kneeland established last February 12th as Nick Punto day, an event where all the Twins' bloggers made a post about Nick Punto. With the current situation in the Twins' bullpen (the Manager of the Millennium brilliantly decided to go with a 'closer by committee' approach to replace injured Joe Nathan,) I would like to take the opportunity and call my fellow Twins' bloggers to a call to virtual arms, establishing April 2nd as the "Free Pat Neshek" day.

I will be posting a post celebrating the return of Pat Neshek to the Twins' team and discussing why he is the best person in the Twins' organization to be names as the Twins' closer.

Anyone else of the Twins' bloggers care to join me in the Free Pat Neshek day?

Are the Twins serious about replacing Neshek?

Then they should try to make a deal for Shunsuke Watanabe... Here is one of his performances in a Japanese All Star game. He is 32 and he will be in the WBC again. (And this is not a serious post - the guy has a 75 mph fastball; but nothing much is going on these days)

Quasi play-by-play notes from the Twins' season opener

(unedited streamed thoughts typed as I was watching:)

Great to see Gomez sprint to take the field. First pitch of the game a strike, first 3 batters retired, 9 total pitches for Hernandez. Gomez starts the game with a double and scores with a Mauer hit. Hunter catches Cuddyer's short to right center amid a chorus of crowd noise. Morneau walks and Weaver hasn't thrown a slider for a strike yet. Delmon flies to Guerrero on the first pitch and Monroe flies out on one
pitch to Hunter (amid another chorus of noise). The strike zone has been pretty
wide, which is a good thing for Hernandez, a finesse pitcher who likes to eat at the
corners. Nineteen pitches for Weaver.

Anderson out in 3 pitches. Hunter is getting an ovation coming to bat, flies to
Cuddyer in short right in the second pitch. Kotchman singles, Cuddyer almost picked him off at first with a smart throw. Livan has been a master of the outside corner
so far tonight with a well working slider and change up. Force at 2nd. 6 outs, 20
total pitches for Hernandez. Weaver is wild with his 2-seamer also, Lamb growns out to the second baseman. Harris long fouls a hanging curve to the opposite field and
then takes a fourseamer down the middle for a called 3rd strike. Everett grounds out
, 3rd inning over. 30 total pitches for Weaver and all the new Twins' starters have
taken a taste of the Dome.

Napoli looks like Tim Laudner on the plate with Livan's 12-6 curve, K in 3 pitches.
Delmon throws out Figgins at the second base but the umpire calls him safe (very
clear at the replay). Man on second 2 outs, Matthews up, Livan working the inside
corner with a 2 seamer then a slow curve. The crowd gets behind Livan. Livan gets
Matthews on a slow grownder to the pitcher on a sinker. 3 outs, 39 total pitches,
the top of the Twins' order is up. Gomez bunts for a hit; head first slide on first.
3 throws on a row on 1st base by Weaver then ball high and out. Gomez steals second
on a pitchout. Man on 2nd no outs. 3-1, bouncer to the right, Gomez to 3rd with 1
out. Cuddyer out on 3 strikes, Morneau up & out to the second baseman.
Guerrero singles to the left, Anderson flies to Gomez, Hunter DPs to Harris, great
bare hand catch by Morneau (definite Webgem). 44 total pitches for Livan. Delmon
singles on a Texas leaguer on short right, Monroe up. Young steals 2nd on a hit and
run. Monroe stikes out. Lamb singles to right center, Young is in, 2-0 Twins.
Harris singles to center, Lamb to 3rd, Everett up, mount conference. Do I see a
bunt? Nope. Weaver's sliders are hitting the dirt now. Pickoff try (must have been
the 15th throw to the 1st base by Weaver). Fastball low 2-2. Double play to
second.

5th inning, Angels' bottom of the order. Kotchman has a hit to right (2 for 2 in the game) Hernandez is getting a bit wild. Kendrick base hit to left. Man on 1st and
2nd no outs. Napoli singles to left. Bases loaded nobody out. Izturis up. Great
time for a strikeout. Double play, a run scores. Man on 3rd 2 outs. Figgins up.
strike one. 1-1 outside. 1-2. Crowd on their feet. 2-2. Mauer at the mound. 3-2
outside. Fastball inside low, base hit, right field. Score tied. Gary Matthews Jr
on the plate. 1-0 outside. 2-0 high. Gomez incredible running catch at right center
(another webgem, Torii who?). 65 pitches for Hernandez. 3-1 for Gomez, draws a walk.
Mauer takes a strike and another. Throw to first and another. Gomez off, steals
2nd. 1-2. 2-2. Mauer out to second basement, Gomez to 3rd 1 out, Cuddyer up. Single
at left on 1st pitch (slider), Gomez in, Twins 3-2. Morneau fouls a long one then
takes a strike down the middle. Another throw to 1st and another. Full count.
Cuddyer steals second on a missed hit and run. Morneau out. Young up. 1-2. 2-2 on
the dirt. Fies out to the right. Inning over. 85 total pitches for Weaver.
Guerrero grounds out to Everett. 2-1 to Anderson. 2-2. 2 foul balls. Curve. Flied
out to Delmon Young. Hunter up. Boos. Flies out to Gomez. Devine symmetry... 1-2-3
inning. 77 total pitches for Livan. Monroe grounds out to 2B. 2-2 to Lamb. Out at
the shortstop. Harris up. Nice slurve for a strike by Weaver. Harris get a double
with Izturis and Anderson both looking for the ball. (Noise please). Harris on 2nd 2
outs Everett on the plate. Oday warming up for the Angels. Everett flies to
Anderson. End of 6. Twins up 3-2. Weaver at 100 pitches.

Kotchman grounds out to Everett. Kendrick 2-0, 2-1 soft grounder to Hernandez, 2
down. Napoli flies out to Gomez. 1-2-3 inning. 84 total pitches for Hernandez. Gomez
up. 1-0. Foul ball 1-1. Sliden outside 2-1. Another one (and low) 3-1. Foul 3-2. K on
a curve on the dirt. Weaver is done, Oliver in, Mauer up. Mauer out at the
shortstop. Cuddyer up out at the shortstop. 7 done. Twins up 3-2.

Neshek in. One K (Izturis). Full count to Figgins. Foul ball, another foul and
another. Got him looking. 2Ks for Neshek. Matthews up, drops for a hit in shallow
left between Everett and Young for a double. Guererro up. Reyes is warming in the
bullpen. 1-0 outside. 2-0 outside. 2-1 foul straight back. 2-2 strike inside. Crowd
is in it. Way inside 3-2. Crowd yells. High fastball swing and miss. Stike 3.
Neshek strikes out the side. O'Day (a submariner) pitching for the Angels, Morneau up
grounds out to second. Nathan is warming up. Young hits throught the middle.
Kubbel PH for Monroe. 0-2. Texas league double on the left field. Kubel on second,
Young on third, Lamb is being intentionally walked. Bases loaded, Harris up, one
out. Punto PR for Lamb. 0-1. 0-2. Foul ball at right. K on a singing fastball. 2
out, Everett up. 0-1. Long foul, hr distance on the left field. Pop up to the left
fielder. Inning out.

Nathan in for the 9th. Anderson. 0-1, 1-1, 2-1, foul ball 2-2. Crowd is up. Fly
ball, Gomez has it. One out. Hunter up. Swing and a miss on a slider. 0-1. Another.
0-2. Another. Foul ball. Fastball inside 1-2. Broken bat foul. 1-2. High fastball
swing and a miss. K. 2 out. Kotchman up. Slider for a stike 0-1. BH swinging bat to
the pitcher. Willets running for Kotchman. Kendrick up. Foul 0-1, Foul 0-2. Crowd
is going. Up the middle Everett steps on the 2b bag for the last out. Twins win 3-2.


Tidbits & observations:

• Impressed by the quality of Livan's pitching. He works the strike zone and changes speeds with ease and can throw strikes with all his pitches. He could be a great mentor for the Twins' young starters


• Lamb's sideburns are rivaling Mauer's


• Artificial turf likes Gomez


• Gomex had a better game than Hunter


• I think that Monroe should be more selective with his swings and run harder to the first base


• Hernandez has the same ERA and record as Santana


• Gomez's uniform is the dirtiest Twins' uni I've seen for a while


• Neshek is on top of his game. (period)

Twins MVP: Gomez

Final score 3-2. WP: Hernandez 0-1; SV: Nathan (1)

A few impressions from the Twins-Yankees game (and spring training so far):

1. I know it is pretty early in the spring training, but Gomez is really trying too hard both on the field and on the plate. Maybe he just needs to quit pushing too hard; some veteran mentoring could really help… So far looks like Span might be winning the CF spot, with Pridie being a bench OF and Gomez starting in the minors

2. Slowey had a second bad outing, but his pitching was better than what the numbers indicate. He had absolutely no movement on his fastball and his off-speed stuff was all over the place. Did not help that the plate umpire had a tight strike zone in the beginning of the game.

3. Delmon Young has been a very positive surprise. I think that he might make us forget about Mr. Hunter.

4. Keisler had a very good outing. With the Twins being fairly thin from the left side and Reyes being inconsistent, if he continuous his performance, he could break in the bullpen.

5. Harris was very tentative on the field whereas Casilla made two great plays, he seemed comfortable with the bat and very confident and composed.

6. Unless Monroe comes back flying, I can see Garrett Jones getting his spot as a DH platoon/1b/of/rh pinch hitter player for a discount (he has no options left)

7. Neshek made the Yankees’ batters look like a little league baseball team