In the path that Brian Dozier blazed: A 2014 breakout candidate for the Twins

I think that it is fair to say that Brian Dozier's 2013 season (especially his power numbers) was not expected by many based on his fairly disappointing 2012 rookie season and his fairly flat minor league career.  But was there anything is his path through the minors that could have acted as a leading indicator potentially predicting his 2013 breakout season? 

After he was drafted in the 8th round of the 2009 draft Dozier moved in a pretty typical path through the Twins organization for a 22 year old: Rookie leagues in 2009, split between A and high A in 2010 and split between high A and double AA, in his age 24 season.  That was the season when Dozier finally got it all together.  Here is a graph of his OPS and ISO throughout his career






His age 24 season shows a noticeable increase in his OPS and, especially, his ISO that doubled from previous marks and was approaching the .200s .  His power (but not his OPS - which means that he still potentially has ways to go in the major league level) was very similar to that exhibited in his age 26 MLB season (2013).   

Also to be noted that Dozier, after his 2011 season, continued the success in the AFL: .296/.358/.454 (.821 OPS, .158 ISO).  He did have a setback in 2012, but that whole Twins' season was a setback.

Let's superimpose the above chart with a chart that shows the OPS and ISO numbers per season of another Twins' player and align them for age:

As you can see, this player has started his professional career earlier that Dozier did and had similar moderate success.  However, like Dozier, in his age 24 season (at AAA instead of Dozier's A/A+) had a major breakthrough with increases in OPS and ISO to close to all-star levels.  Actually at the same age, at a higher level of competition, his OPS and power numbers were better than Dozier's, which makes me believe that he will potentially have a season similar to Dozier's 2013 next season.  The player?

Eduardo Escobar

Also of note is that Escobar (like Dozier in 2011) is continuing his breakthough 2013 season in the Venezuela Winter League: .302/.348/.519 (.867 OPS, .217 ISO) at the time this was written

How about fielding which was another strong suit of Brian Dozier's ?

Here are the MLB career numbers for Dozier:

.992 FP% 2B (1255 Inn), .964 FP% SS (732 Inn),
UZR/150: -0.7 2B, -5.0 SS,
RZR .832 2B (MLB best 2013: .842), .796 SS (MLB Best 2013: .876; Florimon .838)

and Escobar:

1.000 FP% 2B (149.7 Inn), .951 FP% 3B (287.7 Inn), .959 FP% SS (281.2 Inn)
UZR/150: -6.0 2B, -16.2 3B, 5.1 SS.
RZR: .813 2B (MLB best 2013: .842), .641 3B, .814 SS (MLB Best 2013: .876; Florimon .838)

Both Dozier and Escobar do not make many errors. UZR/150 does not like Dozier and Escobar in 2B and 3B, but likes Escobar at SS.  Revized Zone Rating has Dozier near the MLB top at second base abd Escobar above average at both 2B and SS (but not that great at 3B).  Noted that Escobar's defense at SS is close to Florimon's as far as UZR/150 and RZR are concerned, but he is making fewer errors than Florimon.

Could Escobar be the Twins' SS of the near future and Escobar & Dozier the Twins double play combination for a while? Time will tell, but if Dozier's very similar career is an indicator, it looks like a very true possibility, starting with the 2014 season.

Dozier to AAA, Florimon to the majors, a mini profile, and controversy?

By now the latest transaction of the Minnesota Twins is about half a day old. SS Brian Dozier was optioned to the Twins AAA club and SS Pedro Florimon was recalled. Dozier was benched for 2 games after a critical error on Sunday and he has been at about replacement level with the bat and been strugging on the field on occasion. Typical rookie season. Even here, yesterday morning the possibility the the Twins might have given up on Dozier temporarily, was mentioned.

Also, it looks like this was not a unanimous decision by the Twins' management. In this article Joe Christensen suggests that the move has been debated for "weeks" among Twins' officials and reported that Ron Gardenhire didn't seem thrilled when it happened and he would not speak on the move.  Rob Anthony answered all questions about the move. Clearly Gardhenhire has been of the loud Dozier supporters the past 2 seasons and it seems that he was against this decision.  MLB.com Rhett Bollinger's piece does not have the Gardenhire information. Phil Mackey's ESPN 1500 story also suggests that there was a long discussion on the subject among the Twins brass and Mackey also adds that the particular play on Sunday and Dozier's reactions afterwards. could have been the decisive point in the demotion (the proverbial last piece of straw). Pioneer Press' Ben Goessling's article is also devoid of mentions of internal discussions and disagreements. Terry Ryan was at Rochester on Tuesday to watch the team and Pedro Florimon played SS; so the timing of his trip might be more than co-incidental.   It will be interesting to see the cohesiveness of the Twins' management in what has been a clearly trying and frustrating season for the Minnesota Twins.

EDIT (Wed afternoon) : Here is new additional information on Ron Gardenhire's reaction and feelings about Dozier, by Phil Mackey  of ESPN 1500.

Pedro Florimon will wear uniform number 25. The last player who wore it was Erik Komatsu earlier this season and Jim Thome before him. Interesting enough, this was Alexi Casilla's number and Jim Thome had to buy it from him. So maybe this is passing of the batton in a way from one Dominican to another in the Twins' middle infield. The most notable Twin associated with number 25 is Randy Bush, member of both Twins' World Championship teams, who wore if from 1982 to 1993.
 

Pedro Florimon was born on December 10, 1986 in La Romana Dominican Rebublic and signed an amature free agent contract with the Baltimore Orioles organization in 2004 as a 17 year old. He came to the states as a 19 year old and played in Baltimore Appalachian League (Rookie) affiliate Bluefield Orioles and their Short Season A New York Penn League affiliate Aberdeen IronBirds. He ended the season hitting .293/.403/.369 with one HR, 13 RBI, 7 SB in 269 PAs. That was probably his best professional season in the Orioles system. His last season there was 2011, when he repeated AA Eastern League Bowie Baysox and hit .267/.344/.396 with 8 HR, 6 RBI and 15 SB. He was selected off Waivers by the Twins on December 5, 2011 at last off-season's winter meetings. Was invited at the MLB Spring Training camp last spring where he was one of the last cuts, and started his Twins' career with AA Eastern League New Britain Rock Cats and played 30 games before was promoted to Rochester. At New Britain he hit .283/.347/.372 2 HRs, 7 SB (improving his previous season performance in the same league) and for Rochester .251/.308/.344 in his first taste of AAA as a 25 year old.

When I gave a mini scouting report when he was claimed by the Twins last September, I mentioned:  

Defensively, he has exceptional range and instincts, but he (more than occasionally) botches easy plays. In 602 games at SS, he has 174 errors but also turned 363 double plays. He has a strong arm and has some occasional gap power with the bat. All in all, he is very similar to a younger Alexi Casilla and would need some work with his concentration on the field. I think that the Twins signed him as organizational depth at this point, since there are no pure short stops in the higher levels of the organization. If he improves his error rate, he could possibly win a bench position with the Twins.
 
That was before he played a single inning in a Twins' uniform.  Based on his Spring Training performance and his steadiness with the Rock Cats and Red Wings this season, I think that he did turn the corner on the field and could even potentially challenge for a starting job next season, depending who is still with the team. On a good competing team, unless he progresses further with the bat (he is still 25,) he could be a bench player. A note:   I am calling him a bench vs. a utility player.  All his career, Florimon has played only at short stop exept of a single game at center field (2011, Bowie BaySox) and 2 at second base (2011, Bowie Baysox and 2009, Delmarva Shorebirds) in the Baltimore Orioles' organization. So, unless he receives additional instruction and playing time at second and third next off-season and spring training, his utility future might be uncertain.  Recently, Baseball America, awarded him the "strongest infield arm in the International League" award.

The Twins middle infield of the future opens tonight

Tonight will be the premiere in the big leagues of Twins' infielder Brian Dozier.   Dozier was the Twins' 8th round draft pick in 2009 out of the University of Southern Mississippi.  He signed right away so he had time to play pro ball in 2009.  He quickly moved through the Twins' system, playing for both rookie level teams in 2009, both A-level teams in 2010, starting in Fort Myers in 2011 and ending up in New Britain and then in the Arizona Fall league.

He was invited in the Spring Training as a non-roster invitee this year (where he was one of the last Twins' cuts) and started the season in Rochester.  He was added to the 40-man roster today.  Even though he has not hit well in Rochester so far (.276/.339/.371, 199 PA) the Twins are encouraged by his 2011 New Britain (.318/.384/.502 7 HR, 22 2B, 7 3B, 351 PA) and Arizona Fall League (.296/.358/.454. 3 HR, 8 2B, 120 PA) numbers to call him up early this season.  It is worth mentioning that with the Fall League, Brian Dozier has a full season in 2011, playing in 153 games and having 689 plate appearances.

He will likely replace Jamey Carroll (who will assume a utility role filling in at all infield positions but at 1B) as the starting shortstop.  He was batting at the number 2 spot in Rochester most of this season, so he might replace Carroll there also.  However it is more likely that Joe Mauer will be at the number 2 spot and Dozier will slide lower in the line up.  Brian wore uniform number 77 during Spring Training but was assigned number 20 today.

The 25 year old Brian Dozier will team up with the 27 year old Alexi Casilla as the Twins' double play combination.  Hopefully Twins' fans will look at scenes like this often this season and for many seasons to come: