Meet the newest Twins member, Ryan Doumit

It was announced today that the Twins have signed Ryan Doumit to an one year contract. The total amount of the contract has not been released yet, but it is a base $3 million contract that can escalate with incentives. I suspect that part of the incentives will be based on plate appearances, given the fact that Doumit has not been very durable the past few season, most recently being in the DL for 57 days last season with a broken ankle. I will not be surprised if the contract ends up being in the $4-5 million dollar range if Doumit achieves the incentive milestones.

Ryan Doumit was drafted by the Pittsburgh Pirates in the 2nd round of the 1999 amateur draft out of Moses Lake (WA) High School. He was born on April 3, 1981 and made his first appearance in the majors in mid-season 2005, after tearing up the Independent League (AAA) at a .352/.422/.642 pace and throwing out 47% of the would be base stealers with the Indianapolis Indians. Primarily a catcher, from 2006 on he has been used extensively in first base and outfield due to nagging injuries. There is a perception that he is not a great defensive catcher, but last season in 461 innings caught here allowed 4 passed balls, as many as Joe Mauer in 408 innings and fewer than the 7 Drew Butera allowed in 670 innings. Also, he caught 24% of the would be base stealers, which is close to Mauer (30%) and Butera (31%). So his defense is in par with the other Twins' catchers, which means that Butera will (hopefully) not have a spot on the 25-man roster, allowing for a more powerful bat to replace him. For more information about Ryan Doumit, check out discussions about his profile at sports management colleges

In 2011, Doumit hit .303/.353/.477, which is better than what Michael Cuddyer did (.284/.346/.459.) Doumit, a switch hitter, hit lefties at a .315/.393/.519 pace in 2011, and is in a position to provide a strong right hand bat in the lineup replacing (if not bettering) Michael Cuddyer at close to a quarter of the cost. Indeed in 2011, Doumit has been close to (or even better than) Cuddyer in pretty much all offensive categories (.360 vs .354 wOBA, .174 vs .176 isoP, 1.23 vs 1.44 GB/FB, 1.53 vs. 0.19 WPA, 27.0% vs 33.7% out of strike swinging and 43.6 vs 29.4 AB/GIDP.) Despite primarily replacing Cuddyer in the lineup, Doumit will fill in at C when Mauer is unable to go or needs rest, at 1B to spell Morneau and will probably split the DH duties with Morneau and Plouffe as well as play some in the outfield with Plouffe. All in all, if healthy, I anticipate at least 500 plate appearances for Doumit.

I think that all in all it is a great signing. As a matter of fact, a couple of weeks ago I indicated that Doumit should be a target for the Twins (bottom of the post.) If indeed the Twins do not carry Butera, with the Doumit signing you a. effectively replacing Cuddyer with a better and younger player at a fraction of the cost and b. allowing another bat to replace Butera on the Twins bench. And another serendipitous fact is that Ryan Doumit has worn uniform number 41 all his MLB career, which is currently Drew Butera's number with the Twins.

How much is Michael Cuddyer worth?

I am really not going to mention the 2011 season as a whole for the Twins. Just looking forward to the 2012 season hoping for a phenomenal rebound alike that of 1991. It has been reported more than once that one of the Twins' priorities this off-season is re-signing Michael Cuddyer who is a free agent for the first time in his career.

Cuddyer comes off a season where he hit .284/.346/.459 with 20 HRs, drove in 70 and also scored 70. He has been the brightest offensive point for the team last season (as a whole); he also displayed the willingness to play multiple positions (unlike in previous seasons,) which was valuable to the Twins because of the multitude of injuries. He arguably had the best season of his career, looking at WAR (wins over replacement), accumulating a 3.1 WAR, which ranks him as the 81st best position player in the majors in 2011, based on that metric. And no math classes are necessary to figure this out.

In addition, he has been given accolades from the press and the Twins' brass about being a good clubhouse leader. He will be 33 on the beginning of the 2012 season. It has been reported that the Twins have offered him a 2-year, $8 million per season contract that he rejected and it looks like he is willing to explore the market before he commits.

What is a reasonable price (in annual contract terms) for Michael Cuddyer?

Here is one analysis:

I looked at all the 2011 contracts of OF/DH/1B types in MLB (including Cuddyer's), looked at their WAR, calculated average $/WAR and calculated how much 3.1 WAR (Cuddyer's WAR in 2001; career high) is worth based on the average $/WAR for OF/1B/DH for 2011. To keep things fair, I did not add players on minimum salary (like Ben Revere) and to keep things not going mathematically out of hand, I used players where WAR >= 1 for the calculations. Here is the spreadsheet:

So by this calculations, it looks like his 2011 year was worth about $7.725. So the Twins' offer of 2 years/$8 per season (including his year 34 season) is slightly higher that his career high 2011 season.

If you look at those contracts, a lot of them were signed in other financial times, before the country was hit by a recession. If you take the contracts signed before the 2010 season from the spread sheet above it looks like this:

This, arguably. might provide a better picture for a fair price in 2011. The bottom like with this calculation is a little less that $5.6 M a year.

I think that the 2 years, $8M dollar per year offer by the Twins was a generous one and reflects that the Twins believe that Cuddyer is a strong positive presence in the organization. This presence carries a close to $2.5 million premium for the Twins per year, based on his value these days and their offer. My opinion is that the Twins can do better for that money, if Cuddyer decides to keep rejecting that offer.

What do you think?

Is Michael Cuddyer done?

Micheal Cuddyer was one of the heroes of the 2006 Twins that won the AL Central division in dramatic fashion the last day of the regular season. That season, his age 27 season, he exceeded expectations after establishing himself as the starting right fielder, instead of being moved around in the infield, hitting .284/.362/.504 with 24 HR and 109 RBI. The Twins' organization regarded him as a power right hand bat that could split the franchise lefties, Joe Mauer and Jason Morneau and create a formidable core in the middle of the lineup for years to come. In the off-season after his 2006 season, he signed an one year $3.575 million contract to avoid arbitration. After his 2007 season, which was not as productive (.276/.356/.433 16 HR, 18 RBI), the Twins decided to keep him long term, offering him a 3 year/$25 million contract through 2010 with a team option for 2011 worth $10.5 million. This contract coincided with the departures of Torii Hunter to the Angels via free agency and Johan Santana to the Mets via a trade. The Twins needed a face for their franchise to quell disappointment by these departures and the gregarious and outspoken Cuddyer was cast into that role. There are a lot of arguments against that contract given to Cuddyer after a down season and at age 28; however, it should be clear that this contract was not only for his field production but for his franchise representation to the public. That said, here is the question that I will try to answer:

Are Michael Cuddyer's best days as a player behind him?


To try to answer this question, I will try to examine the following:

• hitting through career, represented by OPS
  
• comparable players
  
• power through career, represented by isoP
  
• tendencies at bat through career
  
• monthly hitting since 2004
  

Career Hitting



this graph is a plot of Michael Cuddyer's OPS in the different seasons he played. Season 1 is 2001 and season 9 is his current age 30 season.

It is clear that his OPS peaked at season 6, 2006 his age 27 season, and has practically linearly declined since.


Comparable Players

Baseball Reference has a great tool that determines the 10 most similar players to a particular player, based on production. Here I am examining Michel Cuddyer's 10 most similar, looking at when they had their peaks, in order to potentially get additional clues about Cuddyer. Here is a list of the 10 most similar players with the age of their peak in parethesis. A couple are disqualified from this analysis, one because he is still 25 years old and the other because he played in the 50s:

1. Kevin Mench (peak age 26)
2. Jeff Francoeur (too young, just in age 25 season)
3. Walt Moryn (played in the 50s - entered MLB at 28)
4. Leon Roberts (peak age 27)
5. Gabe Kapler (peak age 24)
6. Sean Berry (peak age 29)
7. Mike Lamb (peak age 28)
8. Chris Singleton (peak age 26)
9. Butch Huskey (peak age 27)
10. Xavier Nady (peak age 29)

the average age peak of these 8 players is age 27. The exact age Michael Cuddyer was during his 2006 season.

Career Power



this graph is a plot of Michael Cuddyer's isoP (isolated power = SLG%-batting average) in the different seasons he played. Season 1 is 2001 and season 9 is his current age 30 season.

It is clear that his power, like his hitting ability, peaked at season 6, 2006 his age 27 season, and has declined since, however not with as dramatic a rate as his hitting ability.

Hitting Tendencies



This was a big surprise to me.

The graph above is a plot of the percentage of balls inside the strike zone (Z-S%) and outside of the strike zone (O-S%) that Micheal Cuddyer has been swinging at during the different seasons. There is no data for 2001, so this is from 2002 on.

As you can see, consistently every season, Cuddyer swings at more balls than the previous season and swings at fewer strikes that the previous season. This is not a recipe for success and it really is bothersome, because it indicates that since his 2002 age 23 season, Cuddyer has become progressively worse in pitch selection.

in other words:

Cuddyer had a better judgment on balls and strikes at age 23, than he had during his age 27, 2006 season and now


Cuddyer, following the example of Denard Span underwent LASIK eye surgery in the off-season. Based on his early 2009 results, it seems that the surgery did not help him distinguish balls and stikes; if anything it made things worse.

Monthly hitting

I wanted to get a bit more granular view than seasonal hitting, so I plotted Cuddyer's monthly OPS from the 2004 season to now, to help identify his peak better:



The bottom line is that since May 2007, when Cuddyer had an OPS of .954 in 100 plate appearances, with the exception of June of 2008 when his OPS was .866 in 91 plate appearances, Cuddyer a. did not have a single month with OPS higher than .800, and b. his OPS has been practically declining month by month.

This is not good news.

Is Cuddyer done?

At this point, there are a lot of indicators, that Cuddyer's best days are over. The swing graphs and the monthly and seasonal OPS drops are somewhat disheartening. However, the June of 2008 provides a glimmer of hope, despite all the other negative indicators. Potentially Cuddyer might have similar months, however even these months will probably not be close to his 2006 production. I think that the Twins should focus on giving more time to Carlos Gomez and Delmon Young, whose best days are ahead of them and give Cuddyer a more limited role, similar to that of Craig Monroe and Randy Ruiz of the 2008 season. Cuddyer will be better than both of them in that role and will be positive for the team. Yes, he will be an overpaid bench/role player, however, as I indicated earlier, part of his contract was because his off-field role, so the "overpayment" for a limited on-field role is mitigated. And if he shows signs that he might have months like the June of 2008, his role could increase for that month and return to limited upon signs of decline (easy to spot based on swinging tendencies)

Cuddyer is uncomfortable at 3B, True or False?

There is a conception that a switch of Mike Cuddyer back to 3B would diminish his performance. Several sources indicate that Cuddyer performs worse at 3B. Most recently, MLB.com Twins beat reporter Kelly Thesier, wrote:

Cuddyer has the ability to play a variety of positions, but it's in right field that he has truly thrived, both defensively and offensively. After the unsuccessful experiment at third base, Cuddyer talked about never truly finding a comfort level there.

Here is a more in depth look at Mike's performance at 3B vs. RF:

As a 3B in 502 ABs he hit for .263 BA with a .329 OBP and .442 slugging for a total OPS of .771. At that span he hit 19 home runs with 59 RBI. He had 47 BB and 105 K. His per bat numbers are 26.4 AB/HR and 8.51 AB/RBI. His K/BB ratio was: 2.23

As a RF in 1268 ABs he hit for .275 BA with a .352 OBP and .452 slugging for a total OPS of .808. At that span he hit 40 home runs with 200 RBI. He had 138 BB and 283 K. His per bat numbers are 31.7 AB/HR and 6.34 AB/RBI. His K/BB ratio was: 2.05

Indeed, his RBI numbers improved as did his BB and gap power. His home runs declined. Is that a result of the move to the RF or is a result of maturing as a hitter and/or hitting ofter betweeen Mauer and Morneau while playing a RF vs. in the 7th and 8th hole as a 3B?


As far as his fielding goes, his FP at 3B was .942 (with league average .957) and range factor 2.70 (with league average 2.76). At RF, in 2006, his FP was .981 (league average .984) and range factor 1.87 (league average 2.20). In 2007: FP .986 (league average .985), range factor 2.02 (league average 2.08). Conclusion, his fielding both at 3B and RF is close to (albeit a bit below) league average, which indicates that his fielding does not suffer much at 3B...

It all depends whether the Twins could find a better 3B via free agency or trade. Here are some names and how they may compare (2007 numbers):

Mike Lamb
Batting: .289BA/.366OBP/.453SLG/1.25K/BB/28.3AB/HR
Fielding: FP:.936 (League average .954) RF 2.53 (2.68)

Morgan Ensberg
Batting: .230BA/.320OBP/.404SLG/1.76K/BB/23.5AB/HR
Fielding: FP:.929 (League average .954) RF 2.61 (2.68)

Scott Rolen
Batting: .265BA/.331OBP/.398SLG/1.51K/BB/49AB/HR
Fielding: FP:.969 (League average .954) RF 2.99 (2.68)

Pedro Feliz
Batting: .253BA/.290OBP/.418SLG/2.41K/BB/27.85AB/HR
Fielding: FP:.973 (League average .954) RF 2.91 (2.68)

for comparison purposes, Mike's 2007 Batting stats and 3B fielding stats

Batting: .276BA/.356OBP/.433SLG/1.67K/BB/34.18AB/HR
Fielding: FP:.942 (League average .957) RF 2.70 (2.76)

From the third basemen listed here, only Rolen and Feliz are superior fielders and only Mike Lamb is a superior hitter. Mike Lamb would potentially be an improvement offensively, but his defense suffers so much that the Astro's switched him to 1B. Feliz strikes out too much and his OBP is dismal. Rolen is an interesting situation, since he is superior defensively and a change of scenery might return him to an above average offensive player. The Rolen gamble might pay off if the price is right. Mike Cuddyer is here and free...

Fresh out of the box

A potential trade with the Rays, involving six players. Matt Garza, Jason Bartlett and Juan Rincon for Delmon Young, Brendan Harris and Jason Pridie. Updated chart from the previous post:

Pitching staff:

SP *Francisco Liriano (207, 2006)
SP *Glen Perkins 138
SP Scott Baker 102 (133, 2005)
SP Boof Bonser 85 (106, 2006)
SP Kevin Slowey 92

CL Joe Nathan 230 (283, 2006)
RP Pat Neshek 147 (204, 2006)
RP Matt Guerrier 184
RP Jesse Crain 79 (164, 2005)
RP *Dennys Reyes 109 (504, 2006)
RP *Carmen Cali 92

and the up to date status of the lineup:

C *Joe Mauer 117 (144, 2006)
1B *Justin Morneau 121 (140, 2006)
2B #Alexi Casilla 39
3B *Brian Buscher 76
SS Brendan Harris 106
LF/DH *Jason Kubel 109
RF Michael Cuddyer 111 (124, 2006)
CF Delmon Young 98 (106, 2006)
DH/LF Craig Monroe 65 (104, 2005)


bench:
OF Jason Pridie (.914 OPS in AAA)
3B #Nick Punto 52 (90, 2006)
OF *Jason Tyner 85 (97, 2005)
C Mike Redmond 89 (103, 2006)
IF #Luis Rodriguez 57 (90, 2005)

A few items of interest: Delmon Young is a better RF than a CF and Pridie is a very good CF. Could it be possible that Cuddyer moves back to 3B with Young in RF and Priddie in CF? Harris is a better 2B than a SS, could it be possible that he is meant to be a 2B with Jose Reyes coming in a Santana trade for SS?

more details as they come...

Twins needs, wants and recent rumor analysis - part one: Santana

La Velle Neal just indicated that the Twins cleared up 2 positions on their 40 man roster, indicating that there is a potential acceleration of events regarding either a Johan Santana trade or a SoCal-initiated rumored trade that would bring Morneau to the Angels or even a Boston-globe remark regarding a straight up Coco Crisp trade.

In this segment I am commenting on the possible returns on a Santana trade.

The main needs of the Twins before this postseason were: 2B, 3B, DH with emphasis on power and right hand bats. After Hunter's signing with the Angels, there is an additional hole in CF. Also, after Castillo's departure, there is a need for a lead off hitter (and overall speed in the lineup) which apparently cannot be satisfied by Casilla at this point

The major want of the Twins brass is to keep the payroll within the 70-75 million dollar range, before the new stadium opens.

Given these parameters, a Santana trade better happen and a couple of additional trades could go long ways. Let me explain:

Johan is pretty much at the apex of his trading value (if not on its downside). A quick comparison of similar pitchers at his age reveals names such as John Candelaria, Bob Welch, Jack McDowell, Sid Fernandez, Kevin Millwood, Kevin Appier, and Mike Mussina. Good pitchers, sometimes great but certainly no Hall of Famers or pitchers who you should spent 30% of your payroll for. I realize that this is a projection and Johan right now is probably the best pitcher in baseball, but I think that the numbers make the point. If there is the potential for a deal with the Yankees (as rumored) including Robinson Cano as the centerpiece with Melky Cabrera and one of the Yankee pitching prospects added to the deal, it might make a lot of sense for the Twins.

My favorite Santana trade for the Twins would be with the Dodgers for Matt Kemp, Andy LaRoche, Johnathan Broxton and Clayton Kershaw. Kemp and LaRoche will plug the holes in the CF and 3B, bringing strong RH power and Broxton could be the closer (with Kershaw waiting in the wings developing in the minors) as soon as Nathan walks or is traded. Furthermore, the addition of Santana, might pull the Dodgers over the edge in a pretty balanced NL West and crown them Champions.

Still, this picture, even though it addresses the Twins' right hand power and 3B/CF needs, does not address the speed/lead off hitter and DH needs. Monroe hopefully is not the team's answer to the DH position. Hot off the press is a speculation that the Mets might be big players in the Santana sweepstakes, with Reyes as the centerpiece and probably a center fielder (Milledge/Gomez) and a pitcher or two added. This would be a steal for the Twins, since it would provide a great lead of hitter and solve the CF problem. This would probably require Bartlett to move to 2B, a position he played only twice in the minors... Additionally, the needs at 3B, DH and right hand power would need to be addressed.

A possible lineup with the Mets trade would look like this (ages as of 2007 in parenthesis):

SS Reyes (24)
2B Bartlett (27)/Punto (29)
C Mauer (24)
RF Cuddyer (28)
1B Morneau (26)
CF Milledge (22)/Gomez (21)
LF Kubel (25)/Monroe (30)
DH Monroe (30)/Kubel (25)/ G. Jones (26)
3B Buscher (26)/Punto (29)

additional bench: Tyner (30), Redmond (36), Casilla (22)

SP Liriano (23)
SP Slowley (23)
SP Garza (23)
SP Bonser (25)
SP Baker (25)/Blackburn (25)/Perkins (24)
RP Rincon (28)
RP Neshek (26)
RP Reyes (30)/ De Paula (24)
RP Guerrier (28)/ Crain (25)
CL Nathan (32)


Observations:

1. This is a young and fairly inexperienced team with a lot of potential upside and would probably entering its peak when the Twins enter the new ballpark. Would this team be able to contend before that?

2. A lot depends on the development of these players. Cuddyer, Morneau, Punto and Mauer had career years in 2006 then regressed in 2007, would they be able to improve in 2008? Bartlett and Kubel had good years in 2007 (esp. late), would they be able to repeat or improve in 2008?

3. Would Buscher hold the 3b job? (he is another left handed bat, his fielding percentage in the minors was .938; but his OPS was .897 in AAA)

4. Still with a Santana trade, there is a surplus in both starting and relieving pitching, with several others (Duensing, Pino, Manship, Delaney, Tippett) a year or two away, which makes additional trades possible or even necessary.