5 Days, 5 Twins waiver deadline trades: Day 5: Closing this series

The waiver trade activity is about to pick up.  I am starting a new series dealing with potential Twins' trades during this period, but with a bit of outside the box thinking.   The rules around waiver trades are a bit complicated, so if you have not read the Waiver Trade Primer yet, feel free to do it.

This week I will be writing about 5 trades the Twins should do and they should seek out, because they make sense and it is fun to think a bit outside the box.

Day 5: Closing this series

When the Twins signed Brandon Kintzler, among the rest of the parading minor league free agents that Terry Ryan did, in nobody's wildest dreams (or nightmares) the possibility of Brandon Kintzler becoming not even the Twins', but the Red Wings' closer was thought as remotely valid.  But happenstance is stranger than dreams, and Brandon Kintzler is the Twins closer today.  And if this is not enough, to say "sell high", the 1.82 ERA, 0.984 WHIP, and 12/13 saves converted (despite a close to his career average 3.55 FIP, .260 BABIP, and celebrating his 32nd birthday earlier this month,) are more than enough to scream sell high.

There is no way that a rational Front Office (something that the Twins have to see since the MacPhail times, and hopefully will have this off-season) would keep Brandon Kintzer, who is under team control and arbitration-eligible for 2 more seasons, with the team at expensive prices for those two seasons, based on these 2 months of 2017.   However, a team that is competing right now, can use a hot arm like his, betting that it will continue and will be enough to bump them to the post-season.

Who will that team be?  The team that has the worst record among the post-season competitors (thus waiver claim priority,) is just 3 games away from the second wild card spot, has 9 games to play this season against our very own Minnesota Twins, and its bullpen took a couple of huge hits this season:  The defending World Champions Kansas City Royals who just found themselves contending again.

What will it take?  It will not come cheap, but it will not break the bank.  A fair return would be the Royals' 2015 4th round pick, 19 year old LHSP, Garrett Davila. Mid-90 fastball lefties do not grow on trees, but Davila has had durability issues and might become a reliever.  Still, he is a gamble and a project, something that the Twins afford to take on, and the Royals would gladly have someone who will help them make this post-season (because they are a very good post-season team) than a project.

So, after Michael Tonkin was sent to the Rangers, after Suzuki traded to the Orioles,  Grossman to the Astros, and Plouffe to the Indians, this imaginary 5 day trading spree closes with the Twins' closer by happenstance, Brandon Kintzler, to the Royals for Garrett Davila.

5 Days, 5 Twins waiver deadline trades: Day 4: Fits to a T

The waiver trade activity is about to pick up.  I am starting a new series dealing with potential Twins' trades during this period, but with a bit of outside the box thinking.   The rules around waiver trades are a bit complicated, so if you have not read the Waiver Trade Primer yet, feel free to do it.

This week I will be writing about 5 trades the Twins should do and they should seek out, because they make sense and it is fun to think a bit outside the box.

Day 4: Fits to a T

From the 30,000 feet view, the team with the best record in the AL and second best to the Cubs in the majors, the Texas Rangers, has few weaknesses.  Looking closer, they have a glaring weakness:  The Twins have been criticized (and for a good reason) about pitching to contact.  The Rangers, along with the Angels, are the only 2 teams in the majors with K/9 rates less than the Twins, and the Rangers are on the bottom on the category with just 6.9 K/9.  The Twins for comparison have 7.4 K/9.   And strikeouts are nowhere more important than the bullpen.  And if the Rangers want to go far in the postseason, they better fix it.

Enter the Twins leader (among active pitchers, May has more, but is on the DL) in K/9 with 10.4 (the highest in his career in the majors,) 26-year old Michael Tonkin.  Tonkin is under team control for 5 more years and not arbitration-eligible for 2 more season, so apparently he can be an asset for the Twins.  On the other hand, there is a logjam of young RHRP better than Tonkin:  Chargois, Pressly (and even possibly Duffey,  Hughes and the aforementioned May; all 3 could also be considered for the rotation) at the MLB-level, with Burdi, Hildenberger, Baxendale, Wimmers, Cederoth and even Reed and Jones knocking on the door.  So the Twins have to sell high.

And Tonkin has some value to a team like the Rangers, because it fixes an immediate problem and potentially for some time, because of the team control.  So it will take more than someone with just a heartbeat to get him.  But it will not take a top prospect, regardless how inflated prices for relievers are.  Their 29th best prospect according to mlb.com, the 21-year old Dominican RHSP, Pedro Payano, will be a great fit.  Very intriguing prospect:  He was born in New York, an grew up in the Dominican and is one of the few players who made it to the States after 4 full seasons in the DSL.  Currently in the short season A league, has a great changeup, and a good fastball and hammer curve and he is dominating at that level, but he is older for the level and there are question marks about how he will play when he moves higher.  A pretty fair return.

So Mr Tonkin will wear a ballcap with his last name's initial, while the Twins will get a player whose last name Bert Blyleven will pronounce as "Pavano".

Michael Tonkin to the Rangers for Pedro Payano, is the fourth Twins' trade that should happen, after Suzuki traded to the Orioles,  Grossman to the Astros, and Plouffe to the Indians.

5 Days, 5 Twins waiver deadline trades: Day 3: Plouffe! Goes the weasel.

The waiver trade activity is about to pick up.  I am starting a new series dealing with potential Twins' trades during this period, but with a bit of outside the box thinking.   The rules around waiver trades are a bit complicated, so if you have not read the Waiver Trade Primer yet, feel free to do it.

This week I will be writing about 5 trades the Twins should do and they should seek out, because they make sense and it is fun to think a bit outside the box.

Day 3: Plouffe! Goes the weasel.

Arguably, Trevor Plouffe is not the poster-boy of a waiver trade, but the poster-boy of non-tendering: 

He is in the middle of the worst season of his MLB career hitting .245/.279/.382, while getting paid a robust $7.25 M salary, has another year of team control via arbitration that will likely rise his salary in 2017 and he is blocking one of the budding young superstars in the game.  So why should anyone trade for him, and what kind of value does he bring on the table?

To Plouffe's benefit, he has been nursing core muscle injuries all season that have been impacting his swing and when healthy he has been producing at his regular clip.  Also, when healthy his defense is on the top third of the league's third basemen.  Plus he can play a pretty good first base if needed.  All you need is to find a team that is desperate enough and is a good fit.   There are 2 of those, in the Twins' own division, but the one with the second best record in the AL, the league leading Cleveland Indians are the more desperate one:  Their starting third baseman is a double-headed beast of LF Jose Ramirez (who can hit and not field that great at 5'9", but when he plays third base, Abraham Almonde plays the OF who cannot hit) and no-hit/fair glove Michael Martinez.  Add the fact that the Tribe has Michael Napoli whose knees can use rest this time of the season at first, and there might be a match made in heaven here.

What would it take?  The Twins have no motivation of keeping Plouffe; as a matter of fact a rational Front Office will non-tender him this off-season.  A penny for a spool of thread, a penny for a needle. That’s the way the money goes, but it will take a bit more than that.  But it will definitely take another sell low type of guy.  And that would be 25 year old Cuban RHP Antonio Romero, who was signed in 2014 after 2 years of playing hiatus, was successful in 2015, but this season the wheels fell off having a cumulative 8.59 ERA, 1.964 WHIP, 6.1 BB/9, and 7.4 K/9 in high A and AA.

Sell low and hope high situation for both players.

I have no time to plead and pine
I have no time to wheedle
Kiss me quick, and then I'm gone
Plouffe! Goes the weasel

So Trevor Plouffe to the Indians for Antonio Romero, straight up, is the third Twins' trade that should happen, after Suzuki traded to the Orioles and Grossman to the Astros

5 Days, 5 Twins waiver deadline trades: Day 2: Homeward bound (sort of)

The waiver trade activity is about to pick up.  I am starting a new series dealing with potential Twins' trades during this period, but with a bit of outside the box thinking.   The rules around waiver trades are a bit complicated, so if you have not read the Waiver Trade Primer yet, feel free to do it. 

Today and the next 4 days (working days), will be writing about 5 trades the Twins should do and they should seek out, because they make sense and it is fun to think a bit outside the box.

Day 2: Homeward bound (sort of)

Robbie Grossman has been with the Houston Astros organization for 3 seasons before he was released after last season.  The Astros have lost Colby Rasmus to vertigo spells, have cut Carlos Gomez and have a catcher (Evan Gattis) who can maybe hit his weight, spiting time with a non-prospect (Jake Marisnick) who cannot hit his, between LF and DH.  They have a 23-year old Rookie (Teoscar Hernandez) manning center.

They do not only need Robbie Grossman, they need him desperately. And the fact that they have the worst record from any AL post-season contender means that they have a good opportunity to land him, since they have priority in waiver trade claims.

What would it take for the Twins to pull the trigger?  First of all they do not really have to trade Grossman, but with the emergency of Daniel Palka, they really do not need him.  Nice waiver wire pickup for the Twins and it is great that they turn him into a very young Catcher who really does not figure in Houston's plans:  The diminutive 21 year old Venezuelan Gabriel Bracamonte.   Bracamote is playing in short season A ball right now, moving up from Rookie ball (Greenville, in the Appalachian league, so the Twins had a chance to see him play) where he started this season and finished the last.  He is still a project, but has a couple things going on for him:  Very strong arm and great judgement of the strike zone as a hitter.  Has shown periodic flashes with the bat, which makes him a pretty intriguing prospect.  Small, but another small catcher (nicknamed Pudge) is hitting on the Hall of Fame's door...

So Robbie Grossman to the Astros for Gabriel Bracamonte, straight up, is the second Twins' trade that should happen, after Suzuki traded to the Orioles 

5 Days, 5 Twins waiver deadline trades: Day 1: Let's play catch

The waiver trade activity is about to pick up.  I am starting a new series dealing with potential Twins' trades during this period, but with a bit of outside the box thinking.   The rules around waiver trades are a bit complicated, so if you have not read the Waiver Trade Primer yet, feel free to do it.  

Today and the next 4 days (working days), will be writing about 5 trades the Twins should do and they should seek out, because they make sense and it is fun to think a bit outside the box.

Day 1: Let's play catch

Kurt Suzuki is a player who a. is pretty hot (since he picked that axe-handled bat) and b. is a free agent after this season, which make him getting traded a no-brainer.  As a matter of fact, if the Twins interim GM Rob Antony does not trade Kurt Suzuki, he should not have a job in the organization.  That's how much of a no-brainer this trade is.

Where is the best landing spot for Kurt Suzuki? 

5 Contending teams can use a catcher (including the losers in the Lucroy sweepstakes Cleveland and Mets) :  Houston, Detroit, Cleveland, Mets and Mystery Team.

The Mets are on the wrong side of the claim priority list.  Detroit will think that Saltalamacchia will be alright for them (and they will be right, he might be as good as Suzuki.) Houston will look at the 3-4 teams above them in the wild card race and might want to invest in other places.  So Cleveland will place a claim for Suzuki.  But will be intersected by Mystery Team, whose record is just a couple games worse than theirs, and will be the team that will be awarded that claim:

The Baltimore Orioles.

Matt Wieters, their All-Star catcher this season,  has been struggling of late, but his struggles are mainly against LHP (.561 OPS, vs. .737 OPS against RHPs and .693 overall.)   Suzuki and his .803 OPS against LHP and an occasional righty will be a huge improvement for a team that is half a game behind it's division lead and leading the AL wild-card race.  

So what would the Twins get as a return?  

Let's not be greedy here, and try to buy low.

1. Garrett Cleavinger LHRP, 22 years old, Orioles' 3rd round pick in 2015.  Closer for the Oregon Ducks. Major Control issues.  Mid 90s FB, above average curve, deceptive delivery, about 11 K/9, but still at A ball with so and so results, but improved control.  Just moved up to high A and not doing too well. And about 10th in the Orioles LHRP depth.  Done deal.

2. Cedric Mullins, Switch hitting CF. 21. Orioles 13th round pick in 2015. 5'8" with cleats on.  Throws left. Speedster.  Lots like a former Twins' first round pick, but much better arm, but he never really made the transition to the wood bat.  Good plate discipline.  Not in anyone's radar.

So here you have it.  Kurt Suzuki for Garrett Cleavinger and Cedric Mullins.  What says you?

MLB Waiver Trade Primer

It is this time of the year, and the waiver trade landscape is about to get hot again, the waiver situation is pretty complex and there are several misconceptions (eg. that there is a trade deadline of August 31,) so here is a MLB Waiver Trade  Primer:

- All players unless on the DL, can be put on trade waivers (and most are put through)

-Teams can chose to claim a player or not

-Claims award priority:

a. same league, team with worse record
b. other league team with worse record
(e.g for a Twins' player the best AL team, currently the Rangers, has priority in a claim over the worst NL team, currently the Braves, but the Marlins have priority over the Dodgers)

-Once a player is claimed (there is a 2 day from the claim time limit for these outcomes) :

a. His team can pull him back and keep him
b. Negotiate a trade with the claiming team
c. Let him go for nothing to the claiming team (and the claiming team pays his full salary)

-If a player is not claimed within 2 days after he is placed, the team can trade him to any other team (unless there is a no-trade clause 10/5 rights etc.)  through the regular season; however, players traded after August, cannot be part of a post-season roster (thus the source of the misconception for an August 31st deadline.)

-A team can put a player through waivers multiple times, but can pull him back only once.   So if a player was claimed by a team and then pulled back, if he is put on waivers again and gets claimed, the other team gets him for nothing (other than paying his full salary, ie. option c. above.)