What went wrong with Armando Gabino?

Armando Gabino made his major league debut yesterday and by all means it was not very successful: He pitched for 2.2 innings, gave 5 hits, 4 earned runs (one of which in a bases loaded walk by Phillip Humber who relieved him in the 2nd inning), 2 walks and struck out one batter. Let's examine what went wrong.

Gabino was not getting his bread and butter pitches called strikes

Here is Gabino's Pitch F/X location data from last nights game (from Brooksbaseball.net):



Gabino's bread and butter are pitches in the red rectangle. For Gabino to be successful, he needs those to be called strikes. Gary Darling, the home plate umpire did not only call pitches down and out of the strike zone balls, but some in the lower part of the strike zone as well.

Gabino tried to adjust and was successful on the outside part of the strike zone (red squares to the left), but he left too many balls in the middle that resulted in being in play (blue squares)

Darling had a consistently small strike zone (here is his balls and strikes calls for all pitchers from both teams) :



Gabino threw very few changeups

Gabino's best pitch is a circle change. Last night he threw only 8 change ups in 57 pitches (and 3 of them in a row at some point in the third inning.) I am not sure whether this is due to the fact that the last time Joe Mauer caught him was in the Spring Training of the 2008 season, but for Gabino to be successful his change up ration should be higher and better mixed.


Gabino had a mechanical issue of sorts

Here is Gabino's release point from last night:



Very inconsistent, and it seems to form 2 nuclei very similar to Liriano's. Liriano's release point is different when facing RHB and LHB (because he steps on different place on the rubber depending on whether he faces a lefty or a righty), but Gabino's was all over the place regardless whether he was facing a lefty or a righty.

As you can see he releases his breaking pitches (orange) and change up (yellow) from a much straighter position than his fastballs (green and blue). This is a huge difference and easily picked up by an opposing batter who can wait on a pitch based on Gabino's release point.

He is tipping his pitches in a very bad way... When a ball comes from a straight delivery, the opponent can guess slider or change up and when it comes from a 3/4 delivery he can guess fastball and be right 100% of the time.

Not too good.

Gabino needs to fix these 3 things in order to be a successful major league pitcher:

• Adjust when he does not get the low strike, but do not throw the ball in the middle of the plate (his 93 mph max FB is not good enought to blow by batters). Stay on the edges, like he partially did last night


• Mix it up. Got to have batters beat him with his best weapon (change up) not with his least (fastball)


• Get a consistent delivery and release point to improve his command and stop tipping his pitches

Meet and greet number 83: Armando Gabino

Armando Gabino is a 25 year old (will turn 26 this August 31st) Dominican RHP from Santiago, birthplace of major league notables Jhonny Peralta, Luis Polonia, and the Minnesota Twins' very own Carlos Gomez. Armando was signed as an 18 year old international free agent by the Cleveland Indians organization in April of 2001 and was later picked up by the Twins organization in December of 2004 in the minor league portion of the Rule 5 draft.

Armando has never been considered a strikeout pitcher, but he is a control pitcher. His career minor league line is 3.31 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 6.4 K/9 and 2.3 K/BB. He is featuring a low nineties 2-seamer, a very effective pitch when spotted with command, a decent slider and an excellent change up. Changing speeds and mixes pitches and locations is Armando's bread and butter. Before this season, Armando had only 4 starts in the Twins' organization with three of them coming in Elizabethton (R, Appalachian League) in his first year with the Twins' organization, 2005. He had another start with Elizabethton in 2006, before he was promoted to Beloit (A, Midwest League) later that season. This season, mainly because of the continuous shuttle of starting pitchers from Rochester to the Twins, Armando had 4 starts with Rochester (AAA, International League) and has been particularly effective.

Armando's numbers this season are 2.93 ERA (3.69 FIP), 1.01 WHIP, 5.9 K/9 and 2.7 K/BB. As a starter he has been very effective: 2.63 FIP, 0.91 BABIP, 6.39 K/9, 3 K/BB, in 4 starts. He held opponents to a .215 batting average for the season and only to a .198 average as a starter. He is equally effectively vs. LHB (.205 opponents' batting average) and RHB (.222 opponents' batting average). Are there any clouds in the horizon? Yes, there are two: This season, he has .245 BABIP against and 5.6% HR/F (percent of fly balls that go out for home runs. Overall hitters hit 35.6% ground balls, 20.% Line Drives and 40.5% Fly Balls. A huge 16.8% of these fly balls are infield flies. The low percentage of fly balls that go out of the park (usually the norm is around 10%) might be sustainable for Armando, because his career minor league number is 6.3% (Very close to his 2009 5.6%.) However, his career BABIP is .284, so I suspect that his WHIP will increase in the majors.

All in all is a great move for the Twins. Gabino has been on the 40-man roster for 2 seasons (to protect him from the rule 5 draft) and in 2011 when he has to be on the Twins 25-man roster or become a free agent. It would be a great opportunity to evaluate Armando in the majors, after his break-through season in Rochester this year. If I were to compare Armando to any current Twins' pitcher, he would be close to Carl Pavano as far as stuff and approach to the game.

Here is a 2007 interview of Armando with the New Britain Rock Cats press




Here is a video of Armando Gabino pitching for the Rock Cats in May of 2007: