If anyone thinks that playing shortstops, first basemen, catchers and
DHs at the outfield did not hurt the Twins, here is a pretty
astonishing set of numbers allowed to us by the new technology that
tracks hit balls. I am just showing the significant departures from
league averages:
Up the Middle RHB:
Twins: PA against: 1339 Slash line: .336/.330/.498 (.826 OPS)
AL: PA against: 19461 Slash line: .308/.303/.439 (.742 OPS)
Opposite field RHB (i.e hit at the Twins RF):
Twins: PA against: 404 Slash line: .332/.326/.532 (.858 OPS)
AL: PA against: 6191 Slash line: .279/.274/.408 (.682 OPS)
That is a huge difference (from average and not from league best too). I hope that someone at the Twins looks at that and adjusts accordingly. If you are a defensive stats minded person, here are plus/minuses (which is actually appropriate for the sample size; devised by Bill James and indicates runs saved from average) and UZR/150 (which is not appropriate for numerical calculation, but the direction gives a sense of what is going on.)
Santana (CF) plus/minus: -2, UZR/150: -12.2
Mastroianni (OF) plus/minus: -3, UZR/150: -9.2
Hicks (OF) plus/minus: -6, UZR/150: -8.2
Schafer (OF) plus/minus: -3, UZR/150: 1.2
Herrmann (OF) plus/minus: -4, UZR/150: -21.9
Kubel (RF) plus/minus: -7, UZR/150: -29.1
Parmelee (OF) plus/minus: -7, UZR/150: -7.4
Colabello (RF) plus/minus: -6, UZR/150: -73.8
Bartlett (OF) plus/minus: -2, UZR/150: -293.1
Arcia (OF) plus/minus: -12, UZR/150: -6.9
Willingham (LF) plus/minus: -5, UZR/150: -6.6
and
Escobar (OF) plus/minus: -1, UZR/150: -27.2
Nunez (OF) plus/minus: -1, UZR/150: 19.9
Adding those plus/minuses is 57. Which means that the Twins' outfield gave up 57 more runs than an average outfield. In 2014 the Twins scored 715 runs and gave up 777 for a 62 run differential. If they had an average outfield, that differential projects at -5, which projects to an 80-82 record, which, albeit not competitive, is respectable.
The 2014 outfield defense was not the reason the Twins did not compete, but it was the reason the Twins were not respectable.
I really cannot believe that anyone should use the adjective "solid" to describe any of the above players - maybe with the exception of Schafer - as outfielders. Some of them are young enough and they can learn and improve, but "solid" they are not. Nope. Mr Parmelee is not a solid outfield. . Mr Herrmann is not a solid outfield. Mr Santana is not a solid centerfielder. Mr Hicks is not a solid centerfielder.
Yes, starting pitching beyond Hughes and Gibson (and maybe Pino, his FIP and WHIP are close to Gibson's) was a problem, but it was not the only problem in opponent scoring. The Twins need to address outfield defense in 2015 as a top priority.
Up the Middle RHB:
Twins: PA against: 1339 Slash line: .336/.330/.498 (.826 OPS)
AL: PA against: 19461 Slash line: .308/.303/.439 (.742 OPS)
Opposite field RHB (i.e hit at the Twins RF):
Twins: PA against: 404 Slash line: .332/.326/.532 (.858 OPS)
AL: PA against: 6191 Slash line: .279/.274/.408 (.682 OPS)
That is a huge difference (from average and not from league best too). I hope that someone at the Twins looks at that and adjusts accordingly. If you are a defensive stats minded person, here are plus/minuses (which is actually appropriate for the sample size; devised by Bill James and indicates runs saved from average) and UZR/150 (which is not appropriate for numerical calculation, but the direction gives a sense of what is going on.)
Santana (CF) plus/minus: -2, UZR/150: -12.2
Mastroianni (OF) plus/minus: -3, UZR/150: -9.2
Hicks (OF) plus/minus: -6, UZR/150: -8.2
Schafer (OF) plus/minus: -3, UZR/150: 1.2
Herrmann (OF) plus/minus: -4, UZR/150: -21.9
Kubel (RF) plus/minus: -7, UZR/150: -29.1
Parmelee (OF) plus/minus: -7, UZR/150: -7.4
Colabello (RF) plus/minus: -6, UZR/150: -73.8
Bartlett (OF) plus/minus: -2, UZR/150: -293.1
Arcia (OF) plus/minus: -12, UZR/150: -6.9
Willingham (LF) plus/minus: -5, UZR/150: -6.6
and
Escobar (OF) plus/minus: -1, UZR/150: -27.2
Nunez (OF) plus/minus: -1, UZR/150: 19.9
Adding those plus/minuses is 57. Which means that the Twins' outfield gave up 57 more runs than an average outfield. In 2014 the Twins scored 715 runs and gave up 777 for a 62 run differential. If they had an average outfield, that differential projects at -5, which projects to an 80-82 record, which, albeit not competitive, is respectable.
The 2014 outfield defense was not the reason the Twins did not compete, but it was the reason the Twins were not respectable.
I really cannot believe that anyone should use the adjective "solid" to describe any of the above players - maybe with the exception of Schafer - as outfielders. Some of them are young enough and they can learn and improve, but "solid" they are not. Nope. Mr Parmelee is not a solid outfield. . Mr Herrmann is not a solid outfield. Mr Santana is not a solid centerfielder. Mr Hicks is not a solid centerfielder.
Yes, starting pitching beyond Hughes and Gibson (and maybe Pino, his FIP and WHIP are close to Gibson's) was a problem, but it was not the only problem in opponent scoring. The Twins need to address outfield defense in 2015 as a top priority.
