Goodbye Charles Nolte

Over the weekend the Twins traded Charles Nolte to the Yankees to retain the rights of Jason Jones. This made somewhat obsolete my predictions for the Rochester Red Wings and Ft. Myers Miracle rosters, since Jason Jones was not accounted in the former and Charles Nolte was projected to be in the latter. Looking at the rosters for those teams, it is likely that one of Sean Henn or Bobby Keppel will opt or be forced out and Jason Jones will take that spot in the Red Wings' rotation. As far as the Miracle pen goes, Michael Allen would be the most likely person to make the jump from the Beloit Snappers to the Miracle.

I profiled Jason Jones when the Twins' drafted him in the rule 5 draft; so, who is Charles Nolte? Charles is an interesting case. He has a very highly rated RHP prospect in the beginning of his senior year of high school (Junipero Serra High in San Diego), throwing a mid 90s four-seamer and a plus curve as a prep athlete and a lock to be a top 2-3 round pick. However, he blew his elbow later in his senior season in high school and required Tommy John surgery. He accepted an earlier scholarship offer from San Diego State and went to College majoring in Business Administation. He played for the Aztecs as a reliever in his junior and senior years and never found the control he had in high school before his surgery: He appeared in 8 games in each of his junior and senior seasons (all but 3 games in his senior season as a reliever) and issued more walks than strikeouts. Regardless, the Twins took a flier and drafted him in the 24th round of the 2007 draft. He spent the 2007 with the GCL Twins (Gulf Coast, low Rookie) where he pitched in 14 games (all in relief) and 24.1 innings, accumulating a 1.85 ERA and 1.15 WHIP producing 8.1 K/9 and having 2 K/BB. A very encouraging sight for someone who lost the plate in College. This allowed him to start the 2008 season in Beloit (Midwest League, A) where he pitched in 44 games for 70.1 innings (he is not an one inning guy), resulting in a 2.05 ERA and 1.39 WHIP, while striking out 9.6 batters per 9 innings and having a 2.14 K/BB ration. That was his age 22 season.

It is very hard to predict what Nolte could have become in the Twins' organization, but there are probably about 10-15 relief prospects ahead of him at this point. Is this a good trade for the Twins? Only time will tell, but I think that at this point it is all about organizational depth at the higher levels.

The case for the Twins adding a couple of free agents

Spring training is almost here, and the Twins' additions have been Luis Ayala, R.A. Dickey, Jason Jones and some minor league free agents. Even though Ayala's contract has not become official yet, he is the one of this off-season's additions most likely to stick with the major league club.

An interesting fact is that there are still the following free agents available (from here) :

Catchers
Gary Bennett (37)
Johnny Estrada (33)
Paul Lo Duca (37) - Type B, not offered arb
Ivan Rodriguez (37) - Type B, not offered arb

First basemen
Miguel Cairo (35)
Nomar Garciaparra (35)
Doug Mientkiewicz (35)
Richie Sexson (34)
Mark Sweeney (39)

Second basemen
Ray Durham (37)
Damion Easley (39)
Mark Grudzielanek (39) - Type B, offered arb
Orlando Hudson (31) - Type A, offered arb
Adam Kennedy (33)

Shortstops
Orlando Cabrera (34) - Type A, offered arb
Nomar Garciaparra (35)

Third basemen
Joe Crede (31)
Nomar Garciaparra (35)

Left fielders
Moises Alou (42) - Type B, not offered arb
Garret Anderson (37) - Type B, not offered arb
Emil Brown (34)
Luis Gonzalez (41) - Type B, not offered arb
Jay Payton (36)
Manny Ramirez (37) - Type A, offered arb

Center fielders
Jim Edmonds (39)

Right fielders
Emil Brown (34)
Ken Griffey Jr. (39) - Type B, not offered arb

DHs
Frank Thomas (41) - Type B, not offered arb
Jose Vidro (34)

Starting pitchers
Kris Benson (33)
Paul Byrd (38) - Type B, offered arb
Tom Glavine (43)
Livan Hernandez (34)
Orlando Hernandez (43)
Chuck James (27)
Jon Lieber (39)
Rodrigo Lopez (33)
Pedro Martinez (37)
Mark Mulder (31)
Sidney Ponson (32)
Kenny Rogers (44)
Curt Schilling (42)
Ben Sheets (30) - Type A, offered arb
Kip Wells (32)

Relievers
Joe Beimel (32) - Type B, not offered arb
Joe Borowski (38)
Shawn Chacon (31)
Chad Cordero (27)
Juan Cruz (30) - Type A, offered arb
Scott Elarton (33)
Keith Foulke (35)
Eric Gagne (33) - Type B, not offered arb
Jason Isringhausen (36) - Type B, not offered arb
Jon Lieber (39)
Aquilino Lopez (34)
Will Ohman (31)
Al Reyes (38)
Dennys Reyes (32) - Type B, offered arb
Ricardo Rincon (39)
Rudy Seanez (40) - Type B, not offered arb
Julian Tavarez (36)
Mike Timlin (43)
Ron Villone (39)
Kip Wells (32)
Matt Wise (33)

I have been making the case that the Twins still have holes at third base (where they are much bellow league average) and at the starting rotation. One of my proposed targets for the starting rotation, Pedro Martinez is still out there and the Twins should try to sign him. I have very little confidence in Perkins as I indicated in my analysis, based on his performance last season and on his stuff. Another consideration is that Tolbert and Buscher are at or below replacement level and being in their primes are not expected to get any better. One of the interesting names, who the Twins should offer a contract as a bench player, PH, part time DH, part time 1B, part time 3B, part time SS is Nomar Garciaparra. I would feel better seeing Nomar instead of Tolbert as a pinch hitter in the 8th inning for Punto when necessary. Nomar last year he hit .264/.326/.466, 105 OPS+ in limited action. Those numbers are better than Crede's last year across the board and Nomar will not cost much. Given that the Twins will not sign Hudson and Cabrera due to their type A status, and Crede does not really add that much (other than getting Buscher to Rochester), bring thing in the former Red Sox, will be a very wise and cost-effective route for the Twins to improve the team as spring training approaches

Meet and greet Jason Jones (& Nick Punto)

The Twins today filled their 40 man roster (they can move Pat Neshek to the 60 day DL and still have an open spot) by re-signing Nick Punto and drafting Jason Jones from the New York Yankees in the major league part of the rule 5 draft (they lost 3 players in the draft and acquired one in the minor league portion, but this will be another post).

Who is Jason Jones?

Jason who turned 26 last November 20th, was selected in the 4th round of the amateur draft of 2005 by the Yankees from Liberty University. A couple of times he was named the pitcher of the week (2006, Florida State League) and 2008 (Eastern League). He was a Florida State League Mid-season All Star in 2006. His arsenal of pitches include a 2-seamer that tops out at 92 mph, a plus plus 81-83 mph slider with late breaking action in to lefties and away from righties, a split-finger fastball (his strikeout pitch) and a changeup that he throws occasionally.

He started his professional career with an excellent campaign in 2004, when he pitched 79 innings and started 14 games split between the State Island Yankees of the New York-Penn League (low A) and the Battle Creek Yankees of the Midwest (A) League. He accumulated a 2.62 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and had 7.67 K/BB and 5.24 K/9. In 2005 he was promoted to the Tampa Yankees of the Florida State League (high A) where he pitched 128.1 innings with disappointing results: 5.68 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, 3.8 K/BB and 5.34 K/9. This drove two changes in his pitching style brought about by the Yankees pitching staff: a. a change in his mechanics and b. abandonment of his erratic curve ball for the favor of a newly tought split-finger fastball. In 2006 he split time between the Tampa Yankees and Trenton Thunder of the Eastern League (AA). His totals for the year were 3.39 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 2.39 K/BB and 5.22 K/9. The decrease in his K/BB was due to the increase use of the split-finger fastball that he was learning at the time. In 2007 he spent the whole season in Trenon where he pitched 131.2 innings resulting to a 3.62 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 2.51 K/BB and 5.35 K/9. He split last season between Trenton and Scranton of the International League (AAA) and pitched 160 innings accumulating a 3.26 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 2.04 K/BB and 5.74 K/9.

How does he fit in the Twins' plans? He could be a change of page reliever in the major league club (however, that would require that one of the current relievers or Phillip Humber who is out of options get dealt.) or his contract could be bought via a trade and have a spot in Rochester's rotation in 2009. If I were to guess, I would guess that unless there is a trade and he shocks the universe in spring training, he would either return to the Yankees or get traded by the Yankees and will start in Rochester. The Twins will surely get a good look of him in spring training because there would be several of their pitchers expected to play in the the World Baseball Classic, which would result in Jones pitching more innings.

Not much I can say about Nick Punto. We all know him. As I indicated previously, he was not that bad last year. He ranked 15th and above the major league average for shortstops in BFE. The huge perception of disappointment is probably a combination of the facts that a. people do not seem to forget 2007 and b. there have been no significant moves by the front office to improve this team. Yet. There are still about 4 months before the first pitch of the 2009 season is thrown, and I will wait to hold judgment about this off-season performance of the Twins' front office until then. For an organization that values "continuity" at all levels, this was not a surprising singing... However, this organization has not won much since 1991, so sometimes the pot needs to be stirred in order for results to be produced.

Time will tell...