The Twins 40-man roster Part 2: Who should be protected from the Rule 5 Draft

The first segment of this series was dedicated to cleaning up the Twins' existing 40-man roster, assuming that the new management will do the right thing and go for a full rebuild.  This second segment, further adjusts the roster by adding players to protect from the draft, and maybe subtracting some of the players on the derived roster.  As a bonus, I will be listing additional Twins minor leaguers who do not need to be protected for the Rule 5 draft, but might merit consideration for a spot on the roster.  This list will give a good overview of the high level minor league talent available currently in the Twins' organization.  I will not proposed to add anyone who does not need to be added on the 40-man roster right now, eg. Steven Gonsalves, Jake Reed etc, but instead, the Twins should invite them as non-roster players to the 2017 Spring Training.  If they win a job there, they should merit a roster spot, but the Twins would need much roster flexibility this off-season.

Here is the 24 man roster, after the clean up.  Noted that if Perkins is moved to the 60-day disabled list, the roster would stand at 23, allowing up to 17 openings:

Jose Berrios 5/27/1994 (RHSP)
Byron Buxton 12/18/1993 (CF)
Juan Centeno 11/16/1989 (C)
J.T. Chargois 12/3/1990 (RHRP)
Tyler Duffey 12/27/1990 (RHRP)
Phil Hughes 6/24/1986 (RHSP)
Eduardo Escobar 1/5/1989 (IF)
Max Kepler 2/10/1993 (RF)
Yorman Landa 6/11/1994 (RHRP)
Pat Light 3/29/1991 (RHRP)
Joe Mauer 4/19/1983 (1B/DH)
Trevor May 9/23/1989 (RHSP)
Adalberto Mejia 6/20/1993 (LHSP)
Mason Melotakis 6/28/1991 (LHRP)
John Ryan Murphy 5/13/1991 (C)
Byungho Park 7/10/1986 (1B/DH)
Glen Perkins 3/2/1983 (LHRP) (*)
Jorge Polanco 7/5/1993 (SS)
Taylor Rogers 12/17/1990 (LHRP)
Eddie Rosario 9/28/1991 (LF)
Randy Rosario 5/18/1994 (LHRP)
Miguel Sano 5/11/1993 (3B)
Kennys Vargas 8/1/1990 (1B/DH)
Adam Walker 10/18/1991 (OF/DH)

Clearly the weakest lings on the roster are the two borderline age-wise position players, Catcher Juan Centeno, and utility infielder Eduardo Escobar.  In addition, Pat Light is the weakest relief pitcher, so borderline players would be compared to these three because they will be fighting for their spots.

Here are the Rule 5 Draft-eligible Position players, by position:

Catchers: 

Kevin Garcia, 9/17/1992, A/A+, 2016: .249/.302/.323, career: .252/.321/.315
Mitch Garver, 1/1/1991, AAA/AA, 2016: .270/.342/.422, career: .267/.359/.406 (*)
Rainis Silva, 3/20/1996 A, 2016: .230/.297/.254, career: .238/.295/.293
Stuart Turner, 12/27/1991, AA, 2016: .239/.322/.363, career: .241/.325/.352

Clearly Mitch Garver should be on the roster, since he will be fighting for a starting job in 2017.  Rainis Silva's glove is the best in the organization at the Catcher position right now, but his bat stinks, and unless that improves (and there is a lot of time, he just turned 20,) there is no risk of losing him.  I do not see Kevin Garcia being selected.  Whether adding Stuart Turner on the roster, is a toss-up.  His bat does not play in the majors, but his glove might.  Which brings the question: who should be on the roster, Turner or Centeno?  I think that Centeno's lefty bat that was not unrespectable in the majors wins here, but it is a close call.  It might be an academic question because the Twins are in dire need of a young good catcher, and if they obtain him this off-season will take the spot now reserved for Centeno.

Additions:  Garver

Infielders: 

Niko Goodrum, 2/28/1992, A+/AA, 2016: .275/.352/.464, career: .247/.339/.368
Levi Michael 2/9/1991, AA, 2016: .215/.293/.291, career: .250/.341/.343
Amaurys Minier, 1/20/1996, RK+, 2016: .222/.318/.449, career: .233/.321/.422
Rafael Valera, 8/25/1994, A, 2016: .261/.366/.409, career: .260/.380/.333
Engelb Vielma, 6/22/1994, A+/AA, 2016: .265/.344/.310, career: .264/.327/.309  
Ryan Walker, 3/26/1992, A+/AA, 2016: .271/.347/.345, career:  .262/.324/.321

Levi Michael had a terrible season after two strong ones, and I am not sure whether he is even in the Twins' plans right now that the administration that picked him in the first round is extinct.  I cannot see Valera or Walker get selected,  I think that Niko's Goodrum's career year and positional versatility (can play both positions on the left side of the infield, and can sub for both Sano and Polanco, plus Centerfield) as well as Engelb Vielma's standout glove and improved to respectability bat, will entice teams and could help the Twins in the future.  As a matter of fact, either would be better as a utility player for the 2017 Twins than Eduardo Escobar. Both in, Escobar traded/non-tendered.  The last player in this list is a wild card.  Amaurys Minier has had superstar potential but been plagued by injuries and inconsistencies.  Has not played above Elizabethton, but I am so afraid that someone could pull a Johan Santana on the Twins and pick him.  Got to protect him for at least another year.

Additions: Goodrum, Minier, Vielma
Subtractions: Escobar

Outfielders:

Edgar Corcino 6/7/1992, AA/A+ 2016: .273/.337/.420, career:  .245/.316/.368
JJ Fernandez, 3/30/1994, A, 2016: .225/.293/.363, career: .239/.293/.363
Zach Granite, 9/17/1992, AA, 2016: .295/.347/.382 (56/70 SB), career: .282/.349/.354 (*)
Max Murphy, 11/17/1992, A/A+, 2016: .236/.289/.358, career: .252/.329/.411
Travis Harrison, 10/17/1992, AA, 2016: .230/.338/.339, career: .254/.360/.380
Daniel Palka, 10/28/1991, AA/AAA, 2016: .254/.327/.521, career: .268/.346/.509 (*)

I think that what I wrote previously regardless Levi Michael, applies to Travis Harrison as well.  This might be his last chance in the Twins' organization.  Fernandez and Murphy are not close to being MLB-ready or selected in the draft.  Corcino is a better player than both, but still ways away.  This leaves the player whom the Twins named minor league player of the year, Zach Granite, and the player they should had named, Daniel Palka.  They both should be protected and added on the 40-man roster.  Palka will fight (or push back to second base) Eduardo Rosario for a corner outfielder job and Zach Granite and his 56 stolen bases might make the best 4th outfielder, pinch runner combination the Twins have had for years.

Additions: Granite, Palka

Notable non-Rule 5 Draft-eligible at A+ and above position players:

Nick Gordon (SS) 10/24/1995, A+, 2016: .291/.335/.386, career: .285/.335/.371
LaMonte Wade (OF) 1/1/1994, A/A+, 2016: .293/.402/.438, career: .297/.409/.459

Both should be invited to the 2017 Spring Training and given the ability to win an MLB job, but they should not be added on the roster unless they need to.

Rule 5 Draft-eligible Pitchers: 

Starters:

Ryan Eades (R), 12/15/1991, AA, 2016: 4.61 ERA, 1.376 WHIP, 7.2 K/9 career:  4.33 ERA, 1.379 WHIP, 6.7 K/9
Felix Jorge.(R) 1/2/1994, A+/AA, 2016: 2.69 ERA, 1.088 WHIP, 5.9 K/9 career:  3.17 ERA, 1.164  WHIP, 7.4 K/9
Aaron Slegers, (R) 9/4/1992, AA,  2016: 3.41 ERA, 1.259 WHIP, 6.4 K/9 career:  3.54 ERA, 1.178 WHIP, 6.5 K/9
Fernando Romero, (R) 12/24/1994, A/A+, 2016: 2.09 ERA, 0.897 WHIP, 9.0 K/9 career:  2.37 ERA, 1.032 WHIP, 8.8 K/9
Lewis Thorpe, (L), 11/23/1995. lost 2015 and 2016 with Tommy John surgery & other ailments. 2012-2014:  2.96 ERA, 1.176 WHIP, 11.2 K/9
Jason Wheeler (L), 10/27/1990, AAA/AA, 2016: 3.30 ERA, 1.163 WHIP, 7.2 K/9 career:  3.66 ERA, 1.325 WHIP, 6.4 K/9

Ryan Eades had a below average season as a starter and I expect him to make the transition to the pen this season, which will be his best opportunity to get to the majors.  Felix Jorge and Fernando Romero are just too good not to add.  Both, especially Romero, have outside chances of wining a position in the Twins' rotation this spring.  They are both no-brainer additions.  Lewis Thorpe was a phenomenal prospect who lost 2 seasons in a row.  Is he back?  Only the Twins know.  I just do not see a chance for anyone to select him, but if the Twins think there is, I can see him add him on the roster.  I won't.  Slegers is an intriguing possibility:  He has been above average his career with above average stuff, but has shown nothing eye opening, in both raw stuff and results. Very intriguing conversion to a reliever who might get a mid to high 90s fastball from this frame.  Should the Twins add him on the roster and do it?  In the expense of Pat Light or any of the other relievers who need protection?  I don't think so. Regardless whether he is selected or not, he should be in a bullpen next season.   This leaves us to Jason Wheeler whom the Twins protected in 2015, unprotected in 2016, and snubbed him for a call up, in a year he was pitching well in both AA and AAA, for the likes of Anrew Albers.  Terrible decision, but I hope that the change in the administration does the right thing and protects him, if for not other reason, because he is lefty and successful and he is second, after Adalberto Mejia, in the Twins LHSP depth chart.  This might change during the off-season if the Twins acquire a LHSP or two better than Mejia, and they should target that.  But until then, Wheeler is in, at least for 2017 to show what he can do.

Additions: Jorge, Romero, Wheeler

Relievers:

Luke Bard (R) 11/13/1990, A+/AA, 2016: 3.74 ERA, 1.400 WHIP, 7.9 K/9 career:  3.23 ERA, 1.310 WHIP, 7.9 K/9
DJ Baxendale (R), 12/8/1990, As a RP only: AAA 2016: 1.29 ERA, 1.029 WHIP, 10.3 K/9
Omar Bencomo (R) 2/10/1989, AA/AAA, 2016: 3.74 ERA, 1.352 WHIP, 6.8 K/9, career:  3.77 ERA, 1.271 WHIP, 6.7 K/9
Cameron Booser (L), 5/4/1992, A/A+, 2016: 8.53 ERA, 2.013 WHIP, 12.1 K/9, career:  4.32 ERA, 1.571 WHIP, 12.1 K/9
Alan Busenitz (R) 8/22/1990, AA/AAA, 2016: 3.54 ERA, 1.262 WHIP, 8.1 K/9 career:  3.55 ERA, 1.320 WHIP, 7.6 K/9 (might protect him for political reasons - he came in the Meyer/Nolasco trade, but there are better players)
C.K. Irby, (R), 5/6/1992, A, 2016: 2.42 ERA, 1.119 WHIP, 10.5 K/9 career:  3.56 ERA, 1.264 WHIP, 11.5 K/9
Zack Jones (R), 12/4/1990, AA/AAA, 2016: 3.47 ERA, 1.294 WHIP, 12.4 K/9 career:  2.97 ERA, 1.218 WHIP, 12.7 K/9
Brandon Peterson, (R), 9/23/1991, A+/AA, 2016: 3.30 ERA, 1.150 WHIP, 11.2 K/9 career:  2.41 ERA, 1.109 WHIP, 12.1 K/9
Brian Gilbert, (R), 8/9/1992, A+, 2016: 5.53 ERA, 2.024 WHIP, 6.2 K/9, career: 3.66 ERA, 1.439 WHIP, 6.6 K/9
Williams Ramirez, (R), 8/8/1992, A, 2016: 2.62 ERA, 1.055 WHIP, 10.8 K/9, career:  1.97 ERA, 1.038 WHIP, 10.1 K/9
Todd Van Steensel (R), 1/14/1991, A+/AA, 2016: 3.88 ERA, 1.324 WHIP, 8.2 K/9, career:  3.42 ERA, 1.291 WHIP, 9.7 K/9

This is a long list of 11 relievers, with only one of them (Booser) a lefty.  Booser had a disappointing season in both High A and A and will not be selected.  The same is true for Brian Gilbert. Bencomo is a last option type of player, and will not be selected. Van Steensel's season was not strong enough to get consideration.  C.K. Irby's was, however it was not at a high enough level.  The same for Williams Ramirez, but watch out if these two repeat their results in high A and/or AA in 2017.  Which brings us to Luke Bard, the Twins' former 1st round pick, who is about to turn 26, and had an average season, but has not been the same after losing 2014 recovering from shoulder surgery.  I think that this will be his last chance to prove that he belongs in the prospect conversation and I will not be surprised if it is not in the Twins' organization.  Alan Busenitz is an interesting case.  He pitched in AA and AAA with average results, that reflect the rest of his minor league career, but the Twins might protect him for political reasons, since he was acquired in the Alex Meyer, Ricky Nolasco trade that also brought Hector Santiago to the Twins.  Maybe the new administration will let the past go and would not protect him.  I wouldn't.  However, I would protect the most successful reliever in the Twins' minor league system, DJ Baxendale, who after transitioning to that role for Rochester upon his promotion from Chatanooga  excelled.  This leaves us two pitchers who might depart via the draft, and one last off-season:  Zach Jones and Brandon Peterson.  Got to add Pat Light to the conversation and it is two out of three.  I'd picke Jones and Light, risking Peterson's departure, mainly because he has played in more junior levels (only 16 games in AA) and might deemed less ready.  But it is a risk.

Additions: Baxendale, Jones.

Notable non-Rule 5 Draft-eligible at A+ and above:

Starters:

Stephen Gonsalves (L) 7/8/1994 A+/AA, 2016: 2.06 ERA, 1.021 WHIP, 10.0 K/9 career:  2.13 ERA, 1.072 WHIP, 9.7 K/9
Tyler Jay (L) 4/19/1994 A+/AA, 2016: 3.33 ERA, 1.231 WHIP, 8.3 K/9 career:  3.44 ERA, 1.265 WHIP, 8.7 K/9
Kohl Stewart (R), 10/7/1994, A+/AA,  2016: 2.88 ERA, 1.343 WHIP, 5.7 K/9 career:  2.84 ERA, 1.284 WHIP, 5.9 K/9

Relievers:

Nick Burdi (R), 1/19/1993, AA, 2016: shut down after 3 games, career: 3.72 ERA, 1.322 WHIP, 12.6 K/9
Trevor Hildenberger (R), 12/15/1990, AA/A+, 2016: 0.75 ERA, 0.792 WHIP, 9.9 K/9 career:  1.47 ERA, 0.823 WHIP, 10.5 K/9
Jake Reed (R), 9/29/1992, AAA/AA,  2016: 3.57 ERA, 1.175 WHIP, 9.2 K/9 career:  3.47 ERA, 1.130 WHIP, 8.8 K/9
Michael Theophanopoulos (L), 8/5/1992, A/A+,  2016: 2.20 ERA, 1.163 WHIP, 11.6 K/9 career:  3.29 ERA, 1.351 WHIP, 10.5 K/9

As with the position players, all of the above, in addition to several Rule 5-eligible players who will remain with the Twins but not added to the roster, and hopefully several new young good players should be invited to the Twins 2017 Spring Training.

This leaves the modified Twins 40-man roster with 34 (33 (*) if Perkins is on the 60-day DL) spots and 6 (or 7) openings, which are enough for the Twins to be flexible in targeting acquisitions in trades and potentially shopping the Rule 5 draft and the waiver wire (and a reminder that they have the right of first refusal, because of the worst record in the majors, for both.)  Here is the modified roster:

DJ Baxendale 12/8/1990 (RHRP)
Jose Berrios 5/27/1994 (RHSP)
Byron Buxton 12/18/1993 (CF)
Juan Centeno 11/16/1989 (C)
J.T. Chargois 12/3/1990 (RHRP)
Tyler Duffey 12/27/1990 (RHRP)
Mitch Garver, 1/1/1991 (C)
Zach Granite, 9/17/1992 (OF)
Phil Hughes 6/24/1986 (RHSP)
Zack Jones 12/4/1990 (RHRP)
Felix Jorge  1/2/1994 (RHSP)
Niko Goodrum, 2/28/1992 (SS/3B/CF)
Max Kepler 2/10/1993 (RF)
Yorman Landa 6/11/1994 (RHRP)
Pat Light 3/29/1991 (RHRP)
Joe Mauer 4/19/1983 (1B/DH)
Trevor May 9/23/1989 (RHSP)
Adalberto Mejia 6/20/1993 (LHSP)
Mason Melotakis 6/28/1991 (LHRP)
Amaurys Minier, 1/20/1996 (1B/OF)
John Ryan Murphy 5/13/1991 (C)
Daniel Palka, 10/28/1991 (OF)
Byungho Park 7/10/1986 (1B/DH)
Glen Perkins 3/2/1983 (LHRP) (*)
Jorge Polanco 7/5/1993 (SS)
Taylor Rogers 12/17/1990 (LHRP)
Fernando Romero 12/24/1994(RHSP)
Eddie Rosario 9/28/1991 (LF)
Randy Rosario 5/18/1994 (LHRP)
Miguel Sano 5/11/1993 (3B)
Kennys Vargas 8/1/1990 (1B/DH)
Engelb Vielma, 6/22/1994 (SS)
Adam Walker 10/18/1991 (OF/DH)
Jason Wheeler 10/27/1990 (LHSP)


Next installment will be a critical view of the roster, assessing weaknesses and looking for potential positions that the Twins should target this off-season.

The Twins 40-man roster Part 1: Who should stay and who should go

After a historically bad season that resulted in the worst record of the Franchise in its current location, Twins' about to be minted (as soon as Cleveland's season is over) new chief baseball officer, Derek Falvey, will have his hands full in turning this team around.  I hope that he has enough flexibility to do a true rebuild.  And a true rebuild is to find enough young talented players that will reach their primes together, and then supplemented by star veterans to close holes as necessary, will compete for a long time.

Looking at the Twins' young talent and how their 40-man roster for 2017 should be built, young is an operating word.  Here is the current Twins' 40-man roster by age groups:  a. Players who will be 26 and younger on 1/1/2017 who should be part of the rebuilt; b. players who will be 28 or older who really do not belong in a rebuilding team, since they will be past their primes when the new Twins' core will reach their primes, and; c. players who are in-between.  The 27 year olds:

 The listing is alphabetical with birthdays

Andrew Albers 10/6/1985
James Beresford 1/19/1989
Jose Berrios 5/27/1994
Buddy Boshers 5/9/1988
Byron Buxton 12/18/1993
Juan Centeno 11/16/1989
J.T. Chargois 12/3/1990
Pat Dean 5/25/1989
Brian Dozier 5/15/1987
Tyler Duffey 12/27/1990
Eduardo Escobar 1/5/1989
Kyle Gibson 10/23/1987
Robbie Grossman 9/16/1989
Phil Hughes 6/24/1986 (60-day DL)
Max Kepler 2/10/1993
Brandon Kintzler 8/1/1984
Yorman Landa 6/11/1994
Pat Light 3/29/1991
Joe Mauer 4/19/1983
Trevor May 9/23/1989
Adalberto Mejia 6/20/1993
Mason Melotakis 6/28/1991
Tommy Milone 2/16/1987
John Ryan Murphy 5/13/1991
Ryan O'Rourke 4/30/1988
Byungho Park 7/10/1986
Glen Perkins 3/2/1983  (60-day DL)
Trevor Plouffe 6/15/1986
Ryan Pressly 12/15/1988
Jorge Polanco 7/5/1993
Taylor Rogers 12/17/1990
Eddie Rosario 9/28/1991
Randy Rosario 5/18/1994
Ervin Santana 12/12/1982
Hector Santiago 12/16/1987
Miguel Sano 5/11/1993
Logan Schafer 9/8/1986
Kurt Suzuki 10/4/1983
Michael Tonkin 11/19/1989
Kennys Vargas 8/1/1990
Adam Walker 10/18/1991
Alex Wimmers 11/1/1988


These 42 players sorted in the 3 age groups:

Young enough:

Jose Berrios 5/27/1994  
Byron Buxton 12/18/1993
J.T. Chargois 12/3/1990
Tyler Duffey 12/27/1990
Max Kepler 2/10/1993
Yorman Landa 6/11/1994
Pat Light 3/29/1991
Adalberto Mejia 6/20/1993
Mason Melotakis 6/28/1991
John Ryan Murphy 5/13/1991
Jorge Polanco 7/5/1993
Taylor Rogers 12/17/1990
Eddie Rosario 9/28/1991
Randy Rosario 5/18/1994
Miguel Sano 5/11/1993
Kennys Vargas 8/1/1990
Adam Walker 10/18/1991

Too old:

Andrew Albers 10/6/1985
Buddy Boshers 5/9/1988
Brian Dozier 5/15/1987
Kyle Gibson 10/23/1987
Phil Hughes 6/24/86
Brandon Kintzler 8/1/1984
Joe Mauer 4/19/1983
Tommy Milone 2/16/1987
Ryan O'Rourke 4/30/1988
Byungho Park 7/10/1986
Glen Perkins 3/2/83
Trevor Plouffe 6/15/1986
Ryan Pressly 12/15/1988
Ervin Santana 12/12/1982
Hector Santiago 12/16/1987
Logan Schafer 9/8/1986
Kurt Suzuki 10/4/1983
Alex Wimmers 11/1/1988

In between: 

James Beresford 1/19/1989
Juan Centeno 11/16/1989
Pat Dean 5/25/1989
Eduardo Escobar 1/5/1989
Robbie Grossman 9/16/1989
Trevor May 9/23/1989
Michael Tonkin 11/19/1989


Let's look at the in between and see who could potentially offer value:

James Beresford 1/19/1989
Juan Centeno 11/16/1989
Pat Dean 5/25/1989
Eduardo Escobar 1/5/1989
Robbie Grossman 9/16/1989
Trevor May 9/23/1989
Michael Tonkin 11/19/1989

Centeno, Escobar, and May can provide some value.  Centeno who might be the weakest of the 3, has options, so he does not preclude the team . So they stay.  Beresford, Dean, Grossman, and Tonkin are designated for assignment.

New Keeper list (with positions) :

Jose Berrios 5/27/1994 (SP)  
Byron Buxton 12/18/1993 (CF)
Juan Centeno 11/16/1989 (C)
J.T. Chargois 12/3/1990 (RP)
Tyler Duffey 12/27/1990 (RP)
Eduardo Escobar 1/5/1989 (IF)
Max Kepler 2/10/1993 (RF)
Yorman Landa 6/11/1994 (RP)
Pat Light 3/29/1991 (RP)
Trevor May 9/23/1989 (SP)
Adalberto Mejia 6/20/1993 (SP)
Mason Melotakis 6/28/1991 (RP)
John Ryan Murphy 5/13/1991 (C)
Jorge Polanco 7/5/1993 (SS)
Taylor Rogers 12/17/1990 (RP)
Eddie Rosario 9/28/1991 (LF)
Randy Rosario 5/18/1994 (RP)
Miguel Sano 5/11/1993 (3B)
Kennys Vargas 8/1/1990 (1B)
Adam Walker 10/18/1991 (OF/DH)

Up to 20 total and most positions of the diamond taken care off.

Let's have a close look to the ones who are too old to belong to a rebuilding team, look into their contract situation, and add potential value to a trade partner:

Andrew Albers 10/6/1985  - no value
Buddy Boshers 5/9/1988  - maybe some value, one option left
Brian Dozier 5/15/1987 - signed until 2018, $15M owed, career season, strong value
Kyle Gibson 10/23/1987 - arbitration eligible, some value
Phil Hughes 6/24/1986 - signed until 2019, $39.6M owed, major surgery
Brandon Kintzler 8/1/1984 - arbitration eligible, some value
Joe Mauer 4/19/1983 - signed until 2018, $46M owed, declining
Tommy Milone 2/16/1987 - abitration eligible, no value
Ryan O'Rourke 4/30/1988 - no value
Byungho Park 7/10/1986 - signed until 2019, $9.3M owed, major investment
Glen Perkins 3/2/1983 - signed until 2017, $7.2M owed
Trevor Plouffe 6/15/1986 - arbitration eligible, some value
Ryan Pressly 12/15/1988 - arbitration eligible, some value
Ervin Santana 12/12/1982 - signed until 2018 + option, $28M owed, close to career season, strong value
Hector Santiago 12/16/1987 - arbitration eligible, medium value
Logan Schafer 9/8/1986  - no value
Kurt Suzuki 10/4/1983 - free agent
Alex Wimmers 11/1/1988  - no value

The ones who do not have value, should go.  Suzuki will depart as a free agent, Albers, O'Rourke, Schafer, and Wimmers are designated for assignment, Milone is not offered arbitration.  The list trims to:


Buddy Boshers 5/9/1988  - maybe some value, one option left
Brian Dozier 5/15/1987 - signed until 2018, $15M owed, career season, strong value
Kyle Gibson 10/23/1987 - arbitration eligible, some value
Phil Hughes 6/24/1986 - signed until 2019, $39.6M owed, major surgery
Brandon Kintzler 8/1/1984 - arbitration eligible, some value
Joe Mauer 4/19/1983 - signed until 2018, $46M owed, declining
Byungho Park 7/10/1986 - signed until 2019, $9.3M owed, major investment
Glen Perkins 3/2/1983 - signed until 2017, $7.2M owed, might not pitch again
Trevor Plouffe 6/15/1986 - arbitration eligible, some value
Ryan Pressly 12/15/1988 - arbitration eligible, some value
Ervin Santana 12/12/1982 - signed until 2018 + option, $28M owed, close to career season, strong value
Hector Santiago 12/16/1987 - arbitration eligible, medium value

The 3 players with most value, Ervin Santana, Brian Dozier, and Hector Santiago should be traded, and the Twins will receive value back, as there will be takers.  The remaining players are in two lists: the arbitration-eligible, and team control players with some value, and the under contract with major questionmarks.  The players in those 2 lists represent 2 opposite sides of the same coin

The arbitration, and team control eligible players:

Buddy Boshers 5/9/1988  - maybe some value, one option left
Kyle Gibson 10/23/1987 - arbitration eligible, some value
Brandon Kintzler 8/1/1984 - arbitration eligible, some value
Trevor Plouffe 6/15/1986 - arbitration eligible, some value
Ryan Pressly 12/15/1988 - arbitration eligible, some value

The Twins should try to trade these players and package them with Dozier, Santana, and Santiago to receive better value.  If no team values them enough to trade for them, the Twins should let them go.  So trade or non-tendering (of DFA in Bosher's situation,)  all 5 will not be Twins in 2017.

Phil Hughes 6/24/1986 - signed until 2019, $39.6M owed, major surgery
Joe Mauer 4/19/1983 - signed until 2018, $46M owed, declining
Byungho Park 7/10/1986 - signed until 2019, $9.3M owed,+ $13M investment
Glen Perkins 3/2/1983 - signed until 2017, $7.2M owed, might not pitch again

The Twins are stuck with these 4 players.  These contracts and their injury or aging situations make them undesirable for any team.  The best case scenario for the Twins is that they all return healthy in 2017, start the season with the team and build enough value to be tradeable during the season.  Perkins will likely not be ready and the Twins have the luxury to add him to the 60-day DL in the beginning of the reason and bring him back slowly if healthy though a series of minor league rehabs, so there is some flexibility there.

So from today's 40-man roster, only the following 24 players (and potentially 23 effectively with a Perkins to the 60-day DL (*) senario) will be there this off-season:

Jose Berrios 5/27/1994 (SP)  
Byron Buxton 12/18/1993 (CF)
Juan Centeno 11/16/1989 (C)
J.T. Chargois 12/3/1990 (RP)
Tyler Duffey 12/27/1990 (RP)
Phil Hughes 6/24/1986 (SP)
Eduardo Escobar 1/5/1989 (IF)
Max Kepler 2/10/1993 (RF)
Yorman Landa 6/11/1994 (RP)
Pat Light 3/29/1991 (RP)
Joe Mauer 4/19/1983 (1B/DH)
Trevor May 9/23/1989 (SP)
Adalberto Mejia 6/20/1993 (SP)
Mason Melotakis 6/28/1991 (RP)
John Ryan Murphy 5/13/1991 (C)
Byungho Park 7/10/1986 (1B/DH)
Glen Perkins 3/2/1983 (RP) (*)
Jorge Polanco 7/5/1993 (SS)
Taylor Rogers 12/17/1990 (RP)
Eddie Rosario 9/28/1991 (LF)
Randy Rosario 5/18/1994 (RP)
Miguel Sano 5/11/1993 (3B)
Kennys Vargas 8/1/1990 (1B/DH)
Adam Walker 10/18/1991 (OF/DH)

This would allow the Twins 16 spots to add several of their prospects for 2017 auditions as well as a good flexibility to include several trade returns.  This list is light on starting pitchers , but the assumption is that they will be targeted in trades and that their number will get supplemented by one or more of the existing prospects in the system.  One note. It is obvious that the Twins are heavy on the DH position.  Park, Mauer, and Vargas can rotate in the first base and DH role, with the ability to have either both lefties or righties, with Vargas being an switch hitter, in a platoon situation, depending on opposing pitchers.  Which means that Adam Walker should be available in a trade at this point.

In the next article of this series will look at who of the existing prospects should move in the 40-man roster to either protect them from the draft or to supplement the MLB-level talent.

Toby Gardenhire has been back with the Twins and nobody knew

After the dearly departed Twins' former General Manager, Terry Ryan, re-hired the Twins' former manager, Ron Gardenhire, who could not find work with any other MLB team, recent news article suggest that as soon as the father was hired, his son, Toby Gardenhire, who has a career .232/.292/.274  slash line in 7 seasons as a Twins' minor leaguer whose best skill was the fact that was Ron Garenhire's son, was also hired by the Twins in 2016.

A hot off the press report by the Dunn County News, says that after school was over for the University of Wisconsin baseball head coach, he was hired by the Twins for the summer as a minor league coach.  From that article:

This summer, Gardenhire had the opportunity to coach for the Minnesota Twins Baseball Club as a hitting and third base coach for the Golf Coast League (GCL) Twins in Fort Myers, Fla.“They called me and asked if I wanted another coaching opportunity,” Gardenhire said. “I said yes and it worked out.”

Not sure whether Terry Ryan, or his interim successor Rob Anthony were the final approvers of the hire, (it was likely Ryan, since college programs end before he was fired,) but the fact that it was never announced is very disappointing.   Not to mention the fact that the Twins looked at another insider (with very low credentials) without going outside the organization looking for excellence.  The hope is that the new Front Office stops running the Twins like a Country Club.