The pitching battle is over... for now

Scott Baker was placed in the 15 day DL, retroactive to March 27, which means that Brian Duensing, Phillip Humber and R.A. Dickey will all make the trip North. The starters will slide a day ahead with Liriano starting the opener against Seattle next Monday. It is reported that R.A. Dickey might be the 5th starter, starting at April 10th in Chicago. Baker will probably come off the DL on April 12, which means that the battle for that last spot will continue for a week or so in the bigs in meaningful games.

I will be doing profiles on Phillip Humber and Brian Duensing soon.

About the last 2 bench positions, for which there is a battle between Brandon Harris (he is close to a "lock" because he is out of options), Matt Tolbert and Brian Buscher, there are a couple of interesting developments today;

• It has been reported that Cardinal Scouts were in the stands in Twins' games, and Troy Glaus' rehab after his shoulder surgery took a turn for the worse


• Today, Mike Cuddyer started at 1B (Morneau was scratched with back tightness) instead of Brian Buscher

Could it be that Buscher will be a Cardinal in the near future settling that battle?

How much of a bargain is Joe Crede?

There have been reports that the Twins are interested in Joe Crede and sent 2 scouts in his Arizona work outs yesterday and today. Earlier this off-season, Joe Crede was called a free agent bargain, even though he had 2 back to back back surgeries to repair 2 herniated discs in his spine. How much of a bargain he is?

Let's examine the facts.

First: What they hey is a herniated disc and why have a back surgery:

WebMD defines a herniated disc as a protrusion of a degenerated or fragmented intervertebral disc into the intervertebral foramen with potential compression of a nerve root or into the spinal canal with potential compression of the cauda equina in the lumbar region or the spinal cord at higher levels characterized by disruption of the annular fibrosis. In plain English: there are discs in your spine that are located inside vertebrae (those are your stacked spine bones, think Jenga). The discs are flexible and they are lubed and help you move. All around them there are nerves. The spine is the mother of all nerves in the human body. And nerves make things move (formally: propagate signals sent from your brain to your muscles) and are the things that make you feel pain. For example, if you have a tooth ache, your tooth doesn't hurt, but the nerves in your teeth "hurt" (formally: send "pain" signals back to your brain; it's a 2-way street), so the dentist goes and does a "root canal" (gets rid of the nerves inside your teeth) and you don't feel the pain. Not that getting Crede will be like getting a root canal (watching Buscher buschering balls is like one), but I am digressing...

Back to the back.

When you do something funky with your back (like trying to throw 50lbs of cement in a truck X 100 a day or try to give your 110lb 12 year old a piggy back ride) or have an accident (like have some cleats landing on your back the wrong way or having your aforementioned 110lb 12 year old land or your back the wrong way or consumed about 20 too many cases of beer last year and your 50lb overweight gut had no muscles to support your back when tried to lift that one last box of books off your basement to sell on ebay) one of those spongy little things might 'slip'. And that is called a "herniated disc" and usually hurts like hell a bit higher than your tailbone. If you messed it up bad enough, you feel it down one or both of your legs (and butt) and it is called "sciatica" (remember, the spine is the mother of all nerves and one of them is the longest nerve of your body, the sciatic nerve that travels from the spine, just a couple of inches north of your butt crack down to the bottom of your feet. That's a nasty nerve because when it's messed up in the bottom of your feet, esp. if you have high arches, it is called patellar tendinitis and hurts like hell, too. Think Marty Cordova and Shannon Steward, but that's a different story).

Back to the back

So Crede had not one but two of those discs messed up. What does the average Joe do when his disc is messed up? He (if he has adequate insurance these days, goes to his primary care physician who writes him a pink -or yellow- referal slip to a specialist, to cover his/her rear end, who in turn subjects him to a bunch of X-rays and MRIs to cover his rear and the result is that the average Joe/Jane) takes medication (anti-inflammatory, think ibuprofen and cortisone shots) rest, heat pads and physical therapy. Half of the average Joes (and Janes) affected by herniated discs are fine after a month of this regiment. 90% of the average Joes (and Janes) are fine after 6 months of this regiment. Only 10% of the herniated disc cases result in surgery. What kind of surgery? Well, this is not exactly therapeutic surgery (like you got an inflamed appendix, you get it out, no more inflamed appendix, no more pain) but it is the equivalent of a root canal: You either get the extra fluid that builds up and presses on the nerves making them hurt sucked away in a variety of ways or get the misplaced disc out of there and two neighboring vertebrae are "glued" together (the latter is called "fusion" and its a kind of an old school method). These days for degenerative conditions like osteoporosis (or a nasty accident) when the vertebrae themselves are shot, one can get brand new titanium vertebrae, but this is not the case here. Surgery is all about pain management. Get the disc out of there that rubs the nerve the wrong way or get the fluid out of there that rubs the nerve the wrong way. Nerves are divas. You gotta take care of them. Crede had door number 2: Fluid drainage. Twice.

Back to the average Joe with the average back problem. How rare is to need 2 consecutive operations to solve the same (or 2 of the same) issues? Only about 1% of average Joes (and Janes) need to have that to be done to them to be pain free. Crede did. And Crede is an athlete and much better conditioned that the average Joe or Jane with a herniated disc, who is probably 25-50 lb + overweight. Two conclusions here: either this is the mother of all herniated discs (or a couple of them) or Joe did not receive the proper regiment to allow him to heal (rest, rest, rest). Hard to tell what it might be.

Enough pig Latin Anatomy; back to baseball: Let's assume that Crede's surgery is successful (and I wholeheartedly wish it is.) What should a team anticipate from him?

I looked at all the major league position players I could find who had back surgery from their mid twenties to their mid thirties (if you know of anyone else, please tell me; pitchers like Kevin Brown, Eric Gagne, Randy Johnson and company were excluded, so were position players- Cal Ripken- who had the surgery in their late 30s) and here are their slash number lines the season before surgery, the season of their surgery (in bold) and the two seasons after surgery (if applicable.) The year of the surgery is indicated by the player's name and the player's age at the season of the surgery is indicate in the line of that season:

John Castino (1981)

1980: .302/.336/.430 (546 AB)
1981: .268/.301/.396 (381 AB) age: 26
1982: .241/.304/.344 (410 AB)
1983: .277/.348/.403 (563 AB)
last season: 3 years after surgery

Ron Kittle (1989)

1988: .258/.323/.533 (255 AB)
1989: .302/.378/.556 (169 AB) age 31
1990:.231/.293/.438 (338 AB)
1991:.191/.291/.319 (47 AB)
last season: 2 years after surgery

David Winfield (1989)

1988: .322/.398/.530 (559 AB)
1989: DNP age: 36
1990:.267/.338/.453 (475 AB)
1991:.262/.326/.472 (568 AB)
last season: 6 years after surgery

Darryl Strawberry (1992)

1991: .265/.361/.491 (505 AB)
1992: .237/.322/.385 (156 AB) age 30
1993: .140/.267/.310 (92 AB)
1994: .239/.363/.424 (89 AB)
last season: 7 years after surgery

Sandy Alomar, Jr. (1993)
1992: .251/.293/.324 (299 AB)
1993: .270/.318/.395 (215 AB) age 27
1994:.288/.347/.490 (292 AB)
1995: .300/.332/.478 (203 AB)

Jose Canseco (1999)
1998: .237/.318/.518 (583 AB)
1999: .279/.369/.563 (430 AB) age 34
2000: .252/.377/.444 (329 AB)
2001: .258/.366/.477 (256 AB)
last season: 2 years after surgery

Eric Chavez (2007)
2006: .241/.351/.435 (485 AB)
2007: .240/.306/.446 (341 AB) age: 29
2008: .247/.295/.393 (89 AB)

Mark Kotsay (2007)
2006: .275/.332/.386 (502 AB)
2007: .214/.279/.296 (206 AB) age: 31
2008: .276/.329/.403 (402 AB)


And here is the point of the inquiry:

Joe Crede (2007, 2008)
2006: .283/.323/.506 (544 AB)
2007: .216/.258/.317 (167 AB) age: 29
2008: .248/.314/.460 (335 AB) age: 30
2009: ?


If we average the OPS and the AB of these players before surgery, the year after surgery and the second year after surgery and look at OPS and AB the first and second years after surgery as fractions of the year before surgery we have:OPS 1 year after surgery = .92 of year before surgery, OPS 2 years after surgery = .96 of year before surgery;AB 1 year after surgery = .66 of year before surgery, AB 2 year after surgery = .62 of year before surgery

if these fractions are applied on Crede's 2006 numbers the predicted values for Crede's 2009 and 2010 seasons are:

2009: .763 OPS in 359 AB
2010: .796 OPS in 337 AB

As a reminder in 2008, Brian Buscher had .730 OPS in 218 AB and Brendan Harris .721 OPS in 434 AB. Harris had a .777 OPS in 521 AB with the Rays in 2007. Also Wigginton had an .876 OPS in 386 AB with the Astros in 2008. And a .792 OPS in 547 AB with the Rays and the Astros in 2007. And it sounds like he will be jumping in joy if he receives half of what Crede allegedly wants to play next year.

Draw your own conclusions about what is the best direction that the Twins should go. Here is my analysis of the third base situation last October and I still stand by it.

Remember the off-season contest is still on. Go to the link and give me your thoughts. 4 people did already. If you guess better than they did, you will win a copy of one of the best minor league publications for the Twins, the Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook - 2009, by Seth Stohs of SethSpeaks.net a major authority in the Twins' blogosphere, personally autographed by Seth himself.

Thoughts...

• Did not want to mention Sunday's 10-0 loss to Texas, hoping it would go away. It didn't. Bad performance from the batters and starting pitching. Twins MVP for the game was Harris. It was hopefully an one-off and the Twins will regroup hosting the White Sox tonight. Bonser vs Floyd. Livan Hernandez is 3 for 3 against Floyd with 2 doubles and a home run.


• In addition to cheating on baseball, Roger Clemens reportedly cheated on his wife with a 15 year old when he was 28, a relationship that lasted more than 10 years... Methinks that statutory rape is more serious than steroid use...



• Randy Ruiz watch:
  
  

  
  G   AB  H   R  2B  3B  HR   RBI  BB  K    BA   OBP   SLG  OPS
  23  82  23  8  7   2   1    14   5   24  .280 .318  .431 .769
  

  
  

Sunday Game Notes

• Gardenhire made the following condescending comment in an interview with La Velle E. Neal III:
  
  When it was mentioned how much Punto gets ripped by fans, Gardy replied: “That’s because he doesn’t help fantasy teams but he can help you win baseball games.”
  
  
  Here is the numbers (btw, Punto starts today instead of Tolbert):
  
  Career Runs Created per Game for the current Twins batters:
  Tolbert: 7.8
  Mauer: 6.6
  Morneau: 5.9
  Cuddyer: 5.3
  Lamb: 5.0
  Kubel: 4.5
  Harris: 4.5
  Monroe: 4.4
  Redmond: 4.4
  Young: 4.3
  Everett: 3.7
  Punto: 3.6
  
  As far as his defense goes, career numbers for all positions are
  
  FP: Punto: .976, league: .972
  RF: Punto: 3.13, league: 3.41
  
  Also his VORP, every year in his career other than 2006 has been negative, meaning that whomever played instead of him in that position was more productive…
  
  I am just tired of Gardenhire’s unsubstantiated and irresponsible comments, especially when they are condescending towards fans like this comment. Most fans do not care about "fantasy stats". All fans care about their team winning. If Punto is last in team in career runs created and his defense is below league average, how does he “help you win games”? Maybe Gardenhire cares less than the Twins' fans about winning every game


• For some reason, Mauer is out of the lineup (with the day off tomorrow) and Morneau is DHing. Also Lamb is playing 1B and Buscher is playing 3B


• Harris hits his 1st home run as a Twin to tie the game in the 3rd. He is the only Twin other than Morneau and Kubel to homer this season. His HR was on the opposite field over the baggie. Punto looked like Billy Butler in the stolen base attempt in the 5th inning. Great 10 inning game with Harris scoring both runs and Morneau driving him in in the bottom of 10th. Redmond and Buscher got their first hits of the season, which means that every hitter on the roster now has a hit. Gomez makes and incredible play in the bottom of the 9th to save the game (look at how the throw to the infield hits Punto on the butt :) ). I hope the fans will see Mr. Bentley for who he really is right now...


• Byrd's stuff is soft (fastball at 87-88 mph max) but has been working several pitches all over the plate. Baker has 8 Ks over the first 7 innings with 100 total pitches, having a streak of 9 batters retired from the 3rd to 6th inning. He currently leads the Twins in strikeouts. The bullpen (Reyes, Neshek and Guerrier) did not allow a run. The Twins lead the AL in team WHIP (1.27)


• Detroit lost in Toronto, KC lost in Oakland and the White Sox won in Tampa, which brings the Twins in a second place tie with KC, 2.5 games off first, and, even more importantly, 2 games ahead of the Indians and 3 ahead of the Tigers


• Frank Thomas was released by the Jays today, the Twins have little power from the right side and Kubel has a .270 OBP as the full-time DH. Thomas has a .326 OBP, 3 HR, 11 RBI and 11 walks (that would put him between Mauer and Kubel in OBP, tied for second in HRs, 3rd in RBI and first in BBs in the Twins' team); it does make sense for the Twins to sign him and installing him as their full time DH in the 3 hole between Mauer and Morneau, since he would be a perfect fit in that lineup and the Jays would be picking the bill. On the other hand, if he has more that 304 ABs this year a $10 mil option for next year matures, which if he produces might not be a bad thing for the Twins [edit: since he was released and not waived, the team that signs him is not responsible for the vesting option. This is a no brainer and the Twins' staff better jump on it]. In that scenario Kubel can come off the bench or play RF and Cuddyer should see some time at 3B.


• On unrelated news, the Pope prays in Yankee stadium. Not sure that even that would be enough to turn their season around with that pitching staff...

Twins MVP: Harris

game notes

• Cleveland lost earlier today to the Angels, Detroit is playing in Boston (down 2-0 after 2) and KC is hosting the Yankees. Wearing Santana's replica AL all-star bp jersey from '05 and watching the game on the white sox broadcast


• Gomez walks in 5 pitches. Picked off the 1st base. Harris singlesto the right... Mauer singles to left. 3-0 to Morneau. 4 pitch walk. Bases loaded 1 out. Young up. Ball. Mount conference. Ball 2. Strike. Foul ball. 2-2. Base hit to left. One run in. Bases still loaded, Kubel up. Ball. Foul. Ball 2. Fly out to CF, Mauer scores, 2 outs. Monroe up. Ball. Strike looking. Grounds out to short. Twins up 2-0. Baker ahead 0-2. 2-2. K. One out. 0-2. 1-2. Great diving catch by Gomez. 2 out. 0-2. K. end of 1, Twins 2-0.


• Lamb pops to second. Everett strikes out. Gomez hits one long way, Swisher grabs it at the warning track left center. Great play; that had triple all over it. 3 outs. Pop up to Morneau, ground out to Harris, 0-2 to AJP, foul ball. Base hit to right. 0-2 again. K. End of 2. Twins 2-02-2.


• 2-2 to Harris, base hit to right. 0-1, 1-1, throw to 1st, 1-2, foul, hit to left. Morneau up 1-1, hit to left bases loaded nobody out. Strike one off Delmon's foot. 0-2. Strikes out. 0-1 to Kubel. 1-1. 2-1. 3-1. Foul 3-2. Hit to right. 3-0, bases still loaded. Mount visit. Ball to Monroe 1-0. 2-0. High swing 2-1. Foul 2-2. Foul. 3-2. Walk. 4-0 Twins, 1 out bases loaded. Pitching change. Hit by Lamb, 5-0 Twins. Everett forces the runner out at the plate. 2 outs. Gomez doubles to the right for 2 RBI. 7-0 Twins. 0-2 to Harris. Close play, out SS to 1b. Twins 7-0. 0-2 to Crede. Ground out to Baker. 0-1. 1-2. Line out to Baker. 0-1. Home run. 7-1 Twins. Hit at the right. K. End of inning. Twins up 7-1. 50 pitches for Baker


• Mauer grounds out to the SS, ditto with Monreau. Strikeout for Young. Konerko HRs, Dye strikes out so does AJP so does Quentin... End of 4 Twins up 7-2.


• Kubel grounds out to 1st. Monroe strikes out. Lamb takes a walk. Everett pops up to 2nd. HR Crede on the 1st pitch 7-3. 3-0. 4-0. Walk. Fly out to Gomez. 0-2. Error Lamb. Foul out to Lamb. Ground out to Everett. End of 5 7-3 Twins.


• Gomez out. Harris doubles to right. Mauer out to 2nd. Morneau intentionally walked. Young walks, bases loaded. Trip to the mound. Grand slam Kubel. 11-3. Monroe doubles to CF. Lamb doubles to the right. 12-3. Everett flies out to the left.


• Bass in. Double for the Sox. Infield hit. Fielder's choice, error, one run in. Ground to Everett. Fly out to Gomez. 12-4 Twins.


• Gomez grounds out at the SS. Harris walks. Mauer strikes out. Morneau hits into a double play. Ground out to Everett. Ground out to Lamb. Ground out to Harris, end of 7. Twins 12-4.


• Young strikes out, Kubel strikes out, Monroe strikes out. Bottom of the 8th. 1-2-3 inning for Bass. He should so pitch the 9th for the save


• Lamb looks hurt; he's out. Punto in for him with 1-2. Strike taken, one out. Everett grounds out to 3rd. Gomez fouls a long one to LF, then flies a long one out to CF. Ground out to Everett, double to left, pop up to Mauer, hit to the right 12-5. fly out to Young. Game over. Twins win 12-5, giving an extra meaning to Baker's dozen

Twins MVP: Harris

Notes & thoughts from today - early edition

4-5 loss, today; 1-3 for the season, 3rd place overall

Kubel hit the 1st HR of the season (upper decker over the baggie on a high fastball by Spier.) Gomez got the hang of laying down a band on turf. That could be a great weapon this year for him. Harris made another couple of great plays this game. I don't think that there is a loss on D when he is in. Good to see Harris, Everett and Gomez with back to back to back singles. First IBB of the season (Mauer, 9th)

"Strained right bisep" without being hit or overworked with weights, sounds like an elbow or shoulder issue (unfortunately). Gardenhire kept the first 2 pitchers in the game too long. They both showed signs of ineffectiveness at least 3 batters before they were done.

Next series against the AL Central leaders, Royals, at home. Would be interested to see how Baker is. With today's long effort by Bass and 2 days in a row pitching by Guerrier, Baker better go at least 6.

Cleveland lost to Chicago & Detroit lost to the Royals; Cabrera is day to day with a leg strain

Matt Garza's line from yesterday (@BAL): 5.1 IP, 6H, 5ER, 2HR, 2BB, 3K

MLB.tv is just wonderful

Twins MVP: Mauer

Fearless prognostications

'Tis the time of year for that, so here is what my crystal ball says:

Playoff teams:

AL EAST: Red Sox 90-72
AL CENTRAL: Twins 89-73
AL WEST: Angels 91-71
AL WILD CARD: Seattle 88-72
DIVISION CHAMPRIONS: Seattle over Boston in 5, Twins over Angels in 4
AL CHAMPION: Twins over Seattle in 7
NL EAST: Mets 91-71
NL CENTRAL: Brewers 85-77
NL WEST: Padres 88-75
NL WILD CARD: Diamondbacks 86-77
DIVISION CHAMPRIONS: Mets over Diamondbacks in 4, Padres over Brewers in 5
NL CHAMPION: Mets over Padres in 7
WS CHAMPION: Twins over Mets in 6 with Liriano beating Santana in both his starts


Twins' team & player specific:

• There will be 4 players with more than 20 HR (Monreau - more than 30, Young, Kubel, Cuddyer). There will be an additional 4 players with more than 10 HR (Harris, Lamb, Monroe, Mauer) with Gomez maybe making the cut, potentially making Everett the only starter with less than 10 HR


• Gomez will break Knoblauch's Twins single season SB record (62, 1997) and challenge Clyde Milan's franchise record (88, Senators 1912)


• Nathan will break Guardado's single season saves record (45, 2002)


• One of the Twin's pitchers will have better record than Santana


• Another one of the Twin's pitchers will have better record and ERA than any of the names discussed in the Santana trade (Hughes, Lester, Kennedy)


• Gomez will score more runs than either Melky Carbera or Ellsbury


• The Outfield will have more than 50 assists (had 32 last year)


• Harris will have fewer errors than Bartlett this year


• D. Young will have more RBI than Torii Hunter

A few impressions from the Twins-Yankees game (and spring training so far):

1. I know it is pretty early in the spring training, but Gomez is really trying too hard both on the field and on the plate. Maybe he just needs to quit pushing too hard; some veteran mentoring could really help… So far looks like Span might be winning the CF spot, with Pridie being a bench OF and Gomez starting in the minors

2. Slowey had a second bad outing, but his pitching was better than what the numbers indicate. He had absolutely no movement on his fastball and his off-speed stuff was all over the place. Did not help that the plate umpire had a tight strike zone in the beginning of the game.

3. Delmon Young has been a very positive surprise. I think that he might make us forget about Mr. Hunter.

4. Keisler had a very good outing. With the Twins being fairly thin from the left side and Reyes being inconsistent, if he continuous his performance, he could break in the bullpen.

5. Harris was very tentative on the field whereas Casilla made two great plays, he seemed comfortable with the bat and very confident and composed.

6. Unless Monroe comes back flying, I can see Garrett Jones getting his spot as a DH platoon/1b/of/rh pinch hitter player for a discount (he has no options left)

7. Neshek made the Yankees’ batters look like a little league baseball team

Fresh out of the box

A potential trade with the Rays, involving six players. Matt Garza, Jason Bartlett and Juan Rincon for Delmon Young, Brendan Harris and Jason Pridie. Updated chart from the previous post:

Pitching staff:

SP *Francisco Liriano (207, 2006)
SP *Glen Perkins 138
SP Scott Baker 102 (133, 2005)
SP Boof Bonser 85 (106, 2006)
SP Kevin Slowey 92

CL Joe Nathan 230 (283, 2006)
RP Pat Neshek 147 (204, 2006)
RP Matt Guerrier 184
RP Jesse Crain 79 (164, 2005)
RP *Dennys Reyes 109 (504, 2006)
RP *Carmen Cali 92

and the up to date status of the lineup:

C *Joe Mauer 117 (144, 2006)
1B *Justin Morneau 121 (140, 2006)
2B #Alexi Casilla 39
3B *Brian Buscher 76
SS Brendan Harris 106
LF/DH *Jason Kubel 109
RF Michael Cuddyer 111 (124, 2006)
CF Delmon Young 98 (106, 2006)
DH/LF Craig Monroe 65 (104, 2005)


bench:
OF Jason Pridie (.914 OPS in AAA)
3B #Nick Punto 52 (90, 2006)
OF *Jason Tyner 85 (97, 2005)
C Mike Redmond 89 (103, 2006)
IF #Luis Rodriguez 57 (90, 2005)

A few items of interest: Delmon Young is a better RF than a CF and Pridie is a very good CF. Could it be possible that Cuddyer moves back to 3B with Young in RF and Priddie in CF? Harris is a better 2B than a SS, could it be possible that he is meant to be a 2B with Jose Reyes coming in a Santana trade for SS?

more details as they come...