Decisions, decisions, decisions.

Last night's game was a big disappointment for the Twins' Fans: The bats were alive, but Slowey and Ayala were not on the top of their game, resulting to turning the game in the favor of the Blue Jays, pretty quickly at the late innings.

Here is a closer look to the win probability graph by fangraphs:



I marked 2 points with asterisks (*1, *2 and *3), because I think they were the turning points of the game and they were bad decisions by Ron Gardenhire:

*1: Kevin Slowey has been struggling throughout the game, but Gardenhire sends him in to start the 6th inning. At this point, the Twins are about 85% win probability. If Slowey left the game then, and the Twins won, he would have been credited with the win. Slowey allows a hit to Rolen. Instead of taking him out at that point, Gardenhire lets him face the next batter (in a manner similar to that allowing Liriano to face multiple hitters after he walked in a run with the bases loaded in the last game of the Chicago series). Overbay hits a home run and the Jays are within 2. A little too late, after facing 2 more batters and walking one, Gardenhire lifts Slowey for Guerrier. Guerrier finishes the inning and starts the next. Breslow replaces him in the 7th after he gives a hit and strikes out the only batter he faces. At this point, Gardenhire, uses Breslow again only to face a single lefty hitter and replaces him with Ayala who finishes the 7th giving a hit and driving a run with 2 outs to bring the Jays within 1 (6-5 Twins)

*2: Top of the 8th inning. You would think that Crain is the 8th inning man, esp. with Ayala having problems the previous inning, who can provide a bridge to Nathan. But this is not the case: Gardenhire keeps Ayala in. A double and a home run later, the Twins' win probability drops from 75% to 15% and the score is Jays 8, Twins 6. That was the biggest turning point of the game

*3: Bottom of the 8th, the Twins hitters are staging a comeback: Brendan Harris doubles to start the inning and goes to third with no outs on a wild pitch. Delmon Young is up. The Twins have a great batter and the best AL Centerfielder in Carlos Gomez on the bench, one would think that getting Gomez in to sacrifice Harris (or get a bunt base hit) would be the proper play (or at least have Young try for the sacrifice). The win probability with Harris at 3rd, nobody out and the Twins down by 2 runs, climbed up to 30%. Young strikes out. Gardenhire, still going for a 2-run homer instead of getting the man from third in with a sacrifice, substitutes Crede for Morales. Crede strikes out. Punto strikes out. Inning over.

Last season, Gardenhire's mismanagement of the pitching staff and the bullpen, cost the Twins the division championship. He was rewarded with a contract extension. Apparently he has not yet learned his lessons from last season. I hope he learns them pretty quickly before this season gets out of hand.

Oh well...

Crap happens, but it doesn't have to happen like that: burn the best pitchers in your pen when you are 3 runs behind and play lefty/righty match ups.

So, for tomorrow only Duensing and Humber will be rested enough to bridge the starter to Nathan. Rejoice...

Here is a quote when pondering the starting lineup for the opener.

Last winter, after the Fargo gaffe, Ron Gardenhire gave an interview to scout.com. Among other things he was asked about who he will start in the outfield. Here is his response:

Gardenhire: Well, they have to earn it. In the course of spring training next year, they will decide who is going to be out there playing. Either they get it done or they don’t. I don’t have to decide stuff like that, unless they all hit .500 in spring training and that makes it a little more difficult. But they have to decide who is going to go out there and play.

As a reminder:

This spring training:

Cuddyer .317/.358/.583, 2 HR, 5 BB. 9 RBI (60 AB)
Gomez .283/.358/.583, 3 HR, 6 BB, 5 SB, 8 RBI (60 AB)
Young .292/.313/.492, 3 HR, 1 SB, 9 RBI (65 AB)
Span .190/.274/.286, 1 HR, 9 BB, 2 SB, 10 RBI (84 AB)

Opening day lineup:

Span LF, Gomez CF, Cuddyer RF

This is not perjury, but Ron Gardenhire is a liar, any way you slice it.

Gardy, Gardy, Gardy...

The latest from the manager of the millennium from the North Dakota Forum (you need to register for access), talking about his outfield:

“Those three guys (Gomez, Span and Cuddyer) need to play every day,” said Gardenhire, in Fargo to speak at an agricultural trade show. “Delmon is in the mix. He’s a hell of a player, a hell of a talent. But to me, those three guys should be your outfield and then you go from there.”

Why is that inane?

1. You should never make negative public statements about your players (and Gardy has been guilty of that many times). Did he really need to talk about his outfield in an "agricultural trade show"?

2. You should never say who is going to be your starting outfielder in December, before Spring training, before the roster is set. This smells prejudice and it is stupid not to only count but name your eggs before they hatch

3. Young outplayed both Gomez and Cuddyer last year a fact that Gardy either does not realize (which means he does not have baseball sense) or ignores (which means he is prejudiced).

Any way you cut it, it’s bad, but at least it happened in a proper forum (a bull trading show)

Gardy has already burned enough bridges with players arranging from superstar level (Ortiz) to serviceable+ major leaguers (Romero, Lohse) to budding stars (Garza, Liriano) with his bullheaded judgmental closedmindedness. And this organization rewarded him with a non-deserved extension. If he messes up with Young, it should be the last straw…

back to hitting

Great article about Young and Gomez. If you can't read it, the gist is that Gomez and Young have a batting average of .324 and .320 respectively when they are hitting pitches in the zone and .181 and .206 respectively when they are trying to hit pitches outside the zone. The writer is pleading for patience from Gomez and Young, but I believe that the true cause of the problem is bad coaching, as I argued in the last several posts here. Effective managers and hitting coaches would have seen the problem and tried to make changes. Apparently Gardy and Varva don't...

And yet, there is more

For the sake of completeness, here are the road splits for every MLB team, ranked by decreased home to road era (the differential in parenthesis) along with their home stadium factor (the second parenthesis):

Pittsburgh 2008: Home ERA 3.75, Road ERA 6.59 (+2.84) (98)
Twins 2008: Home ERA 3.32, Road ERA 5.69 (+2.37) (96)
Tampa 2008: Home ERA 2.87, Road ERA 5.05 (+2.18) (100)
San Diego 2008: Home ERA 3.38, Road ERA 5.10 (+1.72) (91)
Milwaukee 2008: Home ERA 3.36, Road ERA 4.95 (+1.59) (101)
Dodgers 2008: Home ERA 3.35, Road ERA 4.51 (+1.19) (105)
Cleveland 2008: Home ERA 3.57, Road ERA 4.75 (+1.18) (102)
Oakland 2008: Home ERA 3.01, Road ERA 4.02 (+1.01) (93)
Mets 2008: Home ERA 3.57, Road ERA 4.58 (+1.01) (96)
Boston 2008: Home ERA 3.45, Road ERA 4.27 (+.82) (105)
Reds 2008: Home ERA 4.05, Road ERA 4.85 (+.80) (105)
Toronto 2008: Home ERA 3.24, Road ERA 3.95 (+.71) (99)
Colorado 2008: Home ERA 4.35, Road ERA 4.97 (+.62) (108)
MLB 2008: Home ERA 3.89, Road ERA 4.48 (+.59) (100)
Kansas City 2008: Home ERA 4.20, Road ERA 4.75 (+.55) (104)
Seattle 2008: Home ERA 4.41, Road ERA 4.95 (+.54) (96)
Cubs 2008: Home ERA 3.44, Road ERA 3.92 (+.48) (105)
Atlanta 2008: Home ERA 3.52, Road ERA 3.98 (+.46) (96)
White Sox 2008: Home ERA 3.31, Road ERA 3.70 (+.39) (105)
Philadelphia 2008: Home ERA 3.71, Road ERA 4.04 (+.33) (104)
Baltimore 2008: Home ERA 4.20, Road ERA 4.47 (+.27) (102)
Marlins 2008: Home ERA 4.37, Road ERA 4.55 (+.18) (97)
Detroit 2008: Home ERA 4.53, Road ERA 4.59 (+.06) (101)
Texas 2008: Home ERA 4.96, Road ERA 4.92 (+.04) (100)
Yankees 2008: Home ERA 4.13, Road ERA 4.10 (-.03) (99)
Giants 2008: Home ERA 4.45, Road ERA 4.36 (-.11) (100)
St Louis 2008: Home ERA 4.16, Road ERA 3.89 (-.27) (99)
Nationals 2008: Home ERA 4.80, Road ERA 4.41 (-.39) (100)
Houston 2008: Home ERA 4.95, Road ERA 4.20 (-.75) (99)
Arizona 2008: Home ERA 4.32, Road ERA 3.45 (-1.13) (106)
Angels 2008: Home ERA 4.44, Road ERA 3.21 (-1.23) (100)

What is clear from this is that, surprisingly, there is no correlation between home/road ERA differential and park factor of the home park. There are 3 teams, Pittsburgh, the Twins and Tampa Bay, which have really bad home/road ERA differentials this year. It's all about planning, managing and coaching. The current Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay managers and coaches have been regarded as 'not that great'; however, the Twins manager, has been regarded as 'one of the best in the game'. Who lies? numbers or opinions?

Even more about pitching

The 4 game differential in the previous post is somewhat high level and I wanted to get a bit more granular to increase the accuracy of the statistical argument.

Here are the home road splits posted previously:

Joe Nathan: Home ERA 0.86,Road ERA 2.79
Dennys Reyes: Home ERA 1.32,Road ERA 4.00
Matt Guerrier: Home ERA 1.46, Road ERA 5.74
Jesse Crain: Home ERA 1.47, Road ERA 4.72
Nick Blackburn: Home ERA 2.20, Road ERA 5.06
Scott Baker: Home ERA 2.28,Road ERA 4.60
Brian Bass: Home ERA 3.20, Road ERA 6.95
Livan Hernandez: Home ERA 3.86, Road ERA 7.0
Boof Bonser: Home ERA 5.73,Road ERA 8.55

additionally pitchers not currently with the team are:

Juan Rincon: Home ERA 3.68,Road ERA 8.78
Pat Neshek: Home ERA 1.29,Road ERA 8.53
Bobby Korecky: Home ERA 6.00,Road ERA 2.45
Francisco Liriano: Home ERA 5.40,Road ERA 16.88

by subtracting road from home era, subtracting the differential between the league average Home ERA 3.89, Road ERA 4.48 (.59) and dividing by 9 to get runs per inning pitched that the team would have gained if the Twins' pitchers were pitching on the road with the same effectiveness that the league average pitcher does, based on home ERA:

Joe Nathan: 0.15 R/IP
Dennys Reyes: 0.23 R/IP
Matt Guerrier: 0.41 R/IP
Jesse Crain: 0.30 R/IP
Nick Blackburn: 0.25 R/IP
Scott Baker: 0.19 R/IP
Brian Bass: 0.35 R/IP
Livan Hernandez: 0.28 R/IP
Boof Bonser: 0.25 R/IP
Juan Rincon: 0.50 R/IP
Pat Neshek: 0.74 R/IP
Francisco Liriano: 1.21 R/IP


Looking at the Twins road losses and adjusting the score based on the above numbers (i.e. if Livan Hernandez pitched 5 innings and Brian Bass 4, in a hypothetical 5-0 loss, the adjusted score would be 5-(0.28*5 )-(0.35*4)= 2-0. To make it fair to the particular game, if a pitcher did not allow any runs, his differential will not be counted. Here is a list of those road losses, the original score and the adjusted score, along with win loss differential for the Twins and other AL Central teams:

Apr 7 @CHW act: L 4-7 adj: L 4-5
Apr 13 @KCR act: L 1-5 adj: W 1-0 diff +1 Twins -1 KC
Apr 14 @DET act: L 9-11 adj: W 9-8 diff +2 Twins -1 KC -1 Det
Apr 15 @DET act: L 5-6 adj: W 5-4 diff +3 Twins -1 KC -2 Det
Apr 23 @OAK act: L 0-3 adj: L 0-1 diff +3 Twins -1 KC -2 Det
Apr 24 @OAK act: L 2-11 adj: L 2-9 diff +3 Twins -1 KC -2 Det
Apr 25 @TEX act: L 5-6 adj: W 5-4 diff +4 Twins -1 KC -2 Det
Apr 27 @TEX act: L 0-10 adj: L 0-8 diff +4 Twins -1 KC -2 Det
May 6 @CHW act: L 1-7 adj: L 1-5 diff +4 Twins -1 KC -2 Det
May 8 @CHW act: L 2-6 adj: L 1-4 diff +4 Twins -1 KC -2 Det
May 17 @COL act: L 2-3 adj: W 2-1 diff +5 Twins -1 KC -2 Det
May 18 @COL act: L 2-6 adj: L 2-6 diff +5 Twins -1 KC -2 Det
May 24 @DET act: L 3-19 adj: L 3-16 diff +5 Twins -1 KC -2 Det
Jun 6 @CHW act: L 6-10 adj: L 6-8 diff +5 Twins -1 KC -2 Det
Jun 7 @CHW act: L 2-11 adj: L 2-9 diff +5 Twins -1 KC -2 Det
Jun 8 @CHW act: L 2-12 adj: L 2-11 diff +5 Twins -1 KC -2 Det
Jun 9 @CHW act: L 5-7 adj: L 5-7 diff +5 Twins -1 KC -2 Det
Jun 10 @CLE act: L 0-1 adj: L 0-0 diff +5 Twins -1 KC -2 Det (assume loss)
Jun 12 @CLE act: L 2-12 adj: L 2-10 diff +5 Twins -1 KC -2 Det
Jun 15 @MIL act: L 2-4 adj: L 2-4 diff +5 Twins -1 KC -2 Det

According to this, the Twins record should have been 45-31 (a .592 winning percentage that projects to 96 wins for the season). If the pitching preparation problems were fixed, they type of discussions that are happening today wouldn't be happening... It is still early. There are 86 games left in the season. If the team identifies the problems, adjusts and plays the remaining 86 games at the potential .592 rate, it will finish the season with 91 wins, easily on top of the AL Central. The team management should really focus on this vs. adding bats...

Digging more into pitching this year...

The huge discrepancy in home and road ERAs, posted earlier, really took me by surprise and made me dig a bit deeper. I have been suggesting (screaming actually) that the numbers indicate that problem with this team this year is pitching, esp starting pitching and not batting. All the trade talk about adding 'better' bats and the talk about players like Lamb, Monroe and Everett underachieving, and who should the utility player be, in order for the Twins to win, are really moot points. I even wrote the following in Joe C's blog:

This team can and should contend. Starting pitching has been a problem and the most serious problem in this team. Having discussions about whether one of Punto/Tolbert/Macri/Harris should play, is somewhat atopic, because either way the way the team has been performing this year, it would not make a difference. Looking at the bench vs. starting pitching is like looking at someone with a heart failure, and trying to give him/her a pedicure before resuscitating him/her… (extreme hyperbole, but I’m trying to make a point… That’s why I think that Gardy messing around with the line up is like an old lady at the checkout counter arguing whether she was shorted 3 cents, while someone is pickpocketing her purse…)

I think that the previous analysis showed that the root cause of the pitching problems is bad road pitching. What is the root cause of bad road pitching?

The players are the same, their stuff is the same at home and on the road. Just the preparation is different and this, as I said before, falls on the manager, the pitching coach and the travel staff. The team should look more serious into this big problem that is costing 2 runs for every away game.

I'll come back to the last point later, but here are the numbers for the major leagues this year, making sure that there is not a league-wide aberration

MLB 2008: Home ERA 3.89, Road ERA 4.48
AL 2008: Home ERA 3.81, Road ERA 4.45
NL 2008: Home ERA 3.96, Road ERA 4.52

and here are the historic numbers for the Twins

Twins:
2008: Home ERA 3.32, Road ERA 5.69
2007: Home ERA 3.84, Road ERA 4.54
2006: Home ERA 3.40, Road ERA 4.54
----
2005: Home ERA 3.62, Road ERA 3.83
2004: Home ERA 3.89, Road ERA 4.20
2003: Home ERA 4.50, Road ERA 4.31
2002: Home ERA 3.76, Road ERA 4.52
2001: Home ERA 4.47, Road ERA 4.56
2000: Home ERA 5.18, Road ERA 5.13
1999: Home ERA 5.08, Road ERA 4.97
1998: Home ERA 4.52, Road ERA 5.00
1997: Home ERA 4.94, Road ERA 5.10
1996: Home ERA 5.38, Road ERA 5.22
1995: Home ERA 5.74, Road ERA 5.81
1994: Home ERA 5.26, Road ERA 6.17
1993: Home ERA 4.73, Road ERA 4.73
1992: Home ERA 3.68, Road ERA 3.76
1991: Home ERA 3.90, Road ERA 3.48
1990: Home ERA 4.24, Road ERA 4.03

Up until and including 2005, the Twins' splits were comparable with the league. Ron Gardenhire and Rick Anderson came to the team in 2002. Rick Stelmaszyk has been the bullpen coach all those years, so his presence probably has nothing to do with this. Did something change between 2005 and 2006? Where any changes made in the travel routine this year? The one thing that changed in 2006 was that this was the first year the majority of the Twins pitching staff had the Gardenhire/Anderson combination as their only Twins MLB coaching/manager combination. Arguable, a veteran pitcher that learned travel habits and preparation that work for him from other coaches, a change in coaching stuff and road preparation philosophy will be less affected than a younger pitcher who has seen nothing else in the Twins' organization. Could it really be just Gardy's and Ronnie's fault?

If the Twins followed the ML trend, their road ERA should have been 3.91. Instead it is 5.69. This is the equivalent of starting every road game down 2-0. Looking closely to the road games this year, if the manager and coaching stuff had the team prepared like every other ballclub in the majors this year, the following games would statistically have been wins:

Apr 15 @DET L 5-6
Apr 25 @TEX L 5-6
May 17 @COL L 2-3
Jun 10 @CLE L 0-1


And the club record would have been 44-32, 2.5 games ahead in Central and 0.5 game off the WC race.

The numbers clearly show that the issue with pitching is not personnel but preparation, managing and coaching. Is the management of the team aware of this issue? I would think that they have someone who analyzes the team performance and reports such obvious discrepancies. If the team straightens things out with the above problems, it would be the equivalent of adding 2 great pitchers in the rotation... If not, Gardenhire and his coaches should be held accountable, unless the management of this team would like to continue its pickpocketing at the rate of 2 runs a game.

game notes

What an inept game management. The kid pitched his heart out in his first start in the majors. The idiot manager sends him in tired and now the best thing he could have hoped for is a no decision that never came (both Bass and Korecky were rested) Way to go Gardy. What a genius…

And not a drop of ink in the papers/internets about the "genius"

Twins lose, tied in 1st with the Sox.

Twins MVP: Morneau

Quick game notes and some stats

I am not going into lengths to describe the Twins' win, but that was a great 9th inning. Coming back this way against one of the best closers in the league, against the world champions, against the team with the best record in the AL, can do tons for the confidence of this young team. Supreme irony that the hero of this game was a guy who have been a goat (pun intended) for most of the season.

As a matter of fact all 3 players who were fundamental for the inning (Young, Gomez, Lamb) have been, at one time or another, the subject of much scrutiny.

I hope that the Twins will show patience in the plate with Dice-K, who has been Dontrelle Willis wild, starting and win again today…

Bad news about Neshek, I hope that rest alone solves the problem. There is a lot said about him being a vegan may have been a cause in the injury. This is like saying that the brand of the tires someone is using might be responsible for a speeding ticket he/she get while cruising at 100mph

A list of four observations from the game:

A couple more notes from this game (just in case you missed them because they were subtle and have been somewhat a point of contention):

1. Everett made at least 3 plays in the field that were exceptional and that no other infielder in a Twins uniform could make (if you don’t know what I’m talking about I could explain…)

2. Guerrier earned the RH set up job tonight. I hope that the Twins’ coaching staff realizes that… and if you are reading, Pat I hope the best and that you are back healthy soon.

3. Gomez is rapidly maturing as a hitter. I’d venture to say that at this point he might be the best right hand bat the Twins have (compare his ABs vs those of Cuddy) The kid wants to listen and he listens. That 9th inning walk was probably one of his most valuable plays this year.

4. The decision to start and keep Kubel in the game over Monroe was a very bad one. I realize that the Twins need to find out what Kubel is really all about but this is not the time or the place to do it. Monroe, even with the comparatively limited time he played, has outperformed Kubel. About time for Gardy to reward him for this…

Twins' MVP: Lamb


Here is an interesting stat for the last statement above:
Runs created per game this season:

Mauer: 6.3
Gomez: 4.8
Monroe: 4.6
Morneau: 4.2
Tolbert: 4.2
Harris: 3.8
Cuddyer: 3.6
Young: 3.5
Punto: 3.4
Kubel: 2.9
Everett: 2.3
Lamb: 2.1
Redmond: 1.7

Gardy, do what you gotta do...

Saturday game notes

• Sindey Ponson is starting for the Rangers tonight. Huge gaffe from Gardy last night, not to use Nathan in the 10th, instead of Rincon, cost the game for the Twins. Baker is pitching today for the Twins. Not many news about Gomez (the local beat reporters seem to get scooped by AP), but it seems that he will be out for a couple of days. Tolbert is leading off and playing SS instead of Punto and Monroe is at CF batting in the 9th hole. Also Mauer and Morneau are batting 3rd and 4th with Harris second... Not sure that this is a good move...


• Two early double plays turned by the Rangers. Mauer and Cuddyer are the culprits. Baker pitches 2 strong scoreless innings with 3 strike outs and only 1 hit. Young and Lamb get back to back hits in the 3rd. Monroe hits a double, one run in, runners on 2nd and 3rd no outs. Tolbert strikes out in 3 pitches. Where is the bunt sign? Lamb scores on a passed ball. 2-0 Twins. Monroe to 3rd. Harris strikes out. Mauer lines out to 3rd. Twins out. Baker gives up 3 consecutive hits in the 3rd. Nobody out bases loaded. That last hit was a blooper in the center that Gomez would have easily catch it. Baker strikes out the next hitter. 0 and 2 double to left. 2 runs in. Game tied. Strikeout. Single, 2 runs in. 4-2 Texas. Strikeout. Baker strikes out the side in the bottom of the 3rd, but the damage is done. 6 Ks for Baker.


• Futile fourth for the Twins. 1-2-3 inning for Baker. Pitching changes. Twins tied the game in the 6th. Mauer gets a bunt hit in the 7th. Twins score 3 on top of the 7th. Delmon knocks in 2. Twins 8-5. Reyes still in; a walk and a hit. Crain in. He strikes out 2. End of inning. Tolbert looks overmatched tonight. He walks, steels second and Mauer brings him in with a single. Morneau singles. Cuddy hits a 3-run homer 12-5 Twins. Kubel out, Delmon out. Bottom of the 8th. Neshek in for some reason in the 8th with a 7 run lead. Where is Korecky?


• Bottom of the 9th 12-5 Twins. Korecky in, for his first appearance in the majors. Hit. Walk. Walk. Double play. One run in. Ground out to Morneau. Game over. Twins win 12-6

Twins MVP: Lamb

The dome is expanding, the dome is expanding, take cover...

One of the outcomes of the Gardy era has been the phenomenon of the ever expanding Metrodome. What do I mean? Park factor is a stat that is helpful in assessing how much a specific ballpark contributes to the offensive production of a team or player. If the park factor number above 100 is a park good for hitters and below 100 is a park good for pitchers. The "homerdome" has been traditionally regarded as a hitter's park. Here are the Park factors for the dome to date since its inaugural season. I also include its ranking among all ML parks, since 2001

year park factor PF rank (out of 30 parks)

1982 101
1983 105
1984 105
1985 103
1986 107
1987 95
1988 106
1989 106
1990 108
1991 106
1992 101
1993 102
1994 97
1995 101
1996 104
1997 99
1998 99
1999 105
2000 106
2001 102        12
2002 97          3
2003 101         8
2004 104        10
2005 104        14
2006 99         19
2007 92         28
2008 92         30

It is clear that in the later years of the Gardy era, the Metrodome is regarded as a pitcher's park. Did the Dome change? Did the mysterious air currents of a bygone era stop suddenly? Or simply, did the new hitting philosophy installed by Gardenhire & Co., turned the Dome into Shea stadium by turning the Twins into a light hitting team?

Wednesday notes

• Late game at Oakland tonight. The Twins are riding a 3 game winning streak and Gardy decides to shake things up by changing his lineup and removing his spark plug Centerfielder, Gomez, for Span and the guy with the highest qualifying batting average in the team, Harris, for Tolbert; meanwhile Nick Punto is still starting at short, errors and 3 pitch strikeouts in vein; but, of course "he helps win games" and would you have any grey poupon? but of course. And yes the Twins are wearing their away grays tonight.


• Empty stadium again tonight. Interesting to see Span starting instead of Gomez in CF. Miss the excitement that Gomez can provide for this club. Doubtful that the sac fly run would have scored in the second with Gomez instead of Span there. Kubel misses a 2-run homer to the upper deck by a couple feet in the 6th. Harris pinch hits for Span in the 8th and the genius moved Punto to CF instead of Gomez.


• Bonser's fastball tops at 94 mph and has an 1-2-3 first inning. The weather is colder than expected (51 degrees), which does not bode well for the Twins' bullpen if recent history repeats itself. Boof has a really funky delivery. It's almost like he is pitching from the stretch every time. Not much leg power there. Maybe he is better suited to a reliever role. He goes 6 with 2 earned runs. Guerrier pitches a scoreless inning, then gives up a homer in the 8th


• Twins lose 3-0. Chicago loses and Detroit wins. KC vs Cleveland is rained out

Twins MVP: Kubel

Tuesday notes

• Another gem of sensitivity by Gardy: In an interview with Pat Borzi, he publically rips Liriano (who is the highest regarded pitcher in the organization), calls him "lazy" and suggests that if he does not improve he should be sent to the minors "as a wake up call". Are those the words someone who needs to regain his confidence on his fastball needs to hear? How wonderful to know that Gardy has Punto's back but when it comes to players from other cultures, he is being continuously insensitive. This reminds me of Gardy's behavior towards David Ortiz, in Gardy's first year as a manager. Someone from the front office needs to give Gardy a "wake up call", before it is too late.


• Punto starts ahead of Tolbert at SS again tonight. Makes an error. Detroit beat Texas 10-2. Delmon almost hit a home in the second. The stadium is more empty than the Metrodome. Monroe gets an early RBI, then another and Lamb brings him in. And then a homer. Span who? Lamb gets 3 hits for the night. Punto looks miserable in the plate until the 9th. Gomez has 4 strikeouts.


• Hernandez stuggled a bit, but still kept the team in the game with 4 runs in 6 innings. Good to see Rincon aggressive against lefties with 3 strikeouts. KC lost to the Indians and the White Sox lost to the Yankees. Oakland's outfield is a black hole, everything drops in for hits. Makes appreciating the Twins' outfield so much more. Neshek pitched an 1-2-3 8th with 6 pitches. Nathan strikes out the side, game over Twins win 5-4

Twins MVP: Monroe

Sunday Game Notes

• Gardenhire made the following condescending comment in an interview with La Velle E. Neal III:
  
  When it was mentioned how much Punto gets ripped by fans, Gardy replied: “That’s because he doesn’t help fantasy teams but he can help you win baseball games.”
  
  
  Here is the numbers (btw, Punto starts today instead of Tolbert):
  
  Career Runs Created per Game for the current Twins batters:
  Tolbert: 7.8
  Mauer: 6.6
  Morneau: 5.9
  Cuddyer: 5.3
  Lamb: 5.0
  Kubel: 4.5
  Harris: 4.5
  Monroe: 4.4
  Redmond: 4.4
  Young: 4.3
  Everett: 3.7
  Punto: 3.6
  
  As far as his defense goes, career numbers for all positions are
  
  FP: Punto: .976, league: .972
  RF: Punto: 3.13, league: 3.41
  
  Also his VORP, every year in his career other than 2006 has been negative, meaning that whomever played instead of him in that position was more productive…
  
  I am just tired of Gardenhire’s unsubstantiated and irresponsible comments, especially when they are condescending towards fans like this comment. Most fans do not care about "fantasy stats". All fans care about their team winning. If Punto is last in team in career runs created and his defense is below league average, how does he “help you win games”? Maybe Gardenhire cares less than the Twins' fans about winning every game


• For some reason, Mauer is out of the lineup (with the day off tomorrow) and Morneau is DHing. Also Lamb is playing 1B and Buscher is playing 3B


• Harris hits his 1st home run as a Twin to tie the game in the 3rd. He is the only Twin other than Morneau and Kubel to homer this season. His HR was on the opposite field over the baggie. Punto looked like Billy Butler in the stolen base attempt in the 5th inning. Great 10 inning game with Harris scoring both runs and Morneau driving him in in the bottom of 10th. Redmond and Buscher got their first hits of the season, which means that every hitter on the roster now has a hit. Gomez makes and incredible play in the bottom of the 9th to save the game (look at how the throw to the infield hits Punto on the butt :) ). I hope the fans will see Mr. Bentley for who he really is right now...


• Byrd's stuff is soft (fastball at 87-88 mph max) but has been working several pitches all over the plate. Baker has 8 Ks over the first 7 innings with 100 total pitches, having a streak of 9 batters retired from the 3rd to 6th inning. He currently leads the Twins in strikeouts. The bullpen (Reyes, Neshek and Guerrier) did not allow a run. The Twins lead the AL in team WHIP (1.27)


• Detroit lost in Toronto, KC lost in Oakland and the White Sox won in Tampa, which brings the Twins in a second place tie with KC, 2.5 games off first, and, even more importantly, 2 games ahead of the Indians and 3 ahead of the Tigers


• Frank Thomas was released by the Jays today, the Twins have little power from the right side and Kubel has a .270 OBP as the full-time DH. Thomas has a .326 OBP, 3 HR, 11 RBI and 11 walks (that would put him between Mauer and Kubel in OBP, tied for second in HRs, 3rd in RBI and first in BBs in the Twins' team); it does make sense for the Twins to sign him and installing him as their full time DH in the 3 hole between Mauer and Morneau, since he would be a perfect fit in that lineup and the Jays would be picking the bill. On the other hand, if he has more that 304 ABs this year a $10 mil option for next year matures, which if he produces might not be a bad thing for the Twins [edit: since he was released and not waived, the team that signs him is not responsible for the vesting option. This is a no brainer and the Twins' staff better jump on it]. In that scenario Kubel can come off the bench or play RF and Cuddyer should see some time at 3B.


• On unrelated news, the Pope prays in Yankee stadium. Not sure that even that would be enough to turn their season around with that pitching staff...

Twins MVP: Harris

Game Notes

• Span makes a lead-gloved 2B error in RF and costs a run. It is amazing that Gardy is continuing to start him instead of Monroe... It would have been an 1-2-3 inning for Bonser.


• Bonser is staying in the game too long. He should have been out after the 1st 2 hits on the 5th inning. A hit, a walk and a run later, Bass comes in. Span has another error by overrunning the ball. At least Guerrier has a well needed excellent outing. Gardy starts Span to begin the 7th against a lefty pitcher. Neshek has a great outing; 1-2-3 ninth with 1 K

Twins MVP: Tolbert

Notes from tonite's game

Interesting decision for the Caesar, to have Kubel in RF and Monroe DHing, instead of the opposite, since Monroe's career range factor in RF is 1.82 where that of Kubel is 1.00. In addition Monroe knows the park. I hope that it is not another mistake... From the current Tiger's lineup only Ordonez (1.121) has a career OPS higher than .788 against Baker, and as far as the Twins go, only Harris (1.500) surpasses that mark against Robertson

Random thought of the day: The team is about $10mil under in payroll. With Everett/Punto/Rincon/Monroe off the books for next year, does a serious run for Manny Ramirez (3 years @ $15-17 mil per year) to be the everyday DH make sense?

Unrelated thought of the day: 1st Monday Night Football: Vikings at Packers. Tough schedule, though...

Issues with mlb.tv. Gomez doubles, steals 3rd, Harris walks, Mauers FC, Harris out, Gomez scores. Twins 1-0. Morneau strikes out. Young flies out to Thomas. Twins 1-0. Fly out to Young, strikeout, home run to left by Sheffield. 1-1. Strikeout. End of 1. 1-1. 16 pitches for Baker.

Kubel strikes out. Monroe grounds out to the shortstop. Lamb grounds out to 1st. 1-2-3 inning. Walk, fly out to Kubel, double play Lamb to Harris to Morneau. End of 2, 1-1. 29 pitches for Baker.

Tolbert gets a bat single to Cabrera. Gomez pops up a bunt to the catcher. Tolbert steals second. Harris pops up to right. Mauer singles to left, Tolbert scores. Morneau flies out to left. Twins 2-1. Walk, pop up foul to Mauer, stolen base (ball knocked out of Tolbert's glove), fly out to Gomez, ground out to Lamb. End of 3, 2-1 Twins. 45 pitches for Baker.

Young flies out to right center. Kubel strikes out in 3 pitches. Monroe singles to left. Lamb flies out to left in a great at bat where he fouled out 8 pitches or so. Bottom of 4. Fly out to Gomez, ground out to Tolbert, ground out to Morneau. Short order of Sheffield, Ordonez and Cabrera. 1-2-3 inning, 8 pitches for Baker. End of 4, Twins 2-1

Tolbert grounds out to 3rd. Robertson way inside to Gomez, then 3-2. Foul, strikeout on a questionable pitch (on further review gameday shows that it was indeed a strike inside). Harris flies out to the warning track at right. Twins out. Single to right, single to right, men on 1st and 2nd. Ground out to Tolbert, runners advance. Fly out to Gomez strong throw, runner stays at 3rd. 2 out. 0-2. Strikeout. End of 5. Twins 2-1. Great job by the Twins.

Mauer doubles to left. Morneau homers to left. 4-1 Twins. Young grounds out to short. One out. Kubel strikes out (third one tonight). Monroe lines out to short. Fly out to Kubel, ground out to third (great catch by Lamb and super play by Morneau on the other end) 2 out. Ordonez homers to left. Ground out to Lamb. End of 6. Twins 4-2.

Lamb flies out to short right. Visit to the mount. Pitching change. Lopez in for the Tigers. Tolbert flies out to right. Gomez strikes out on a slider way low and way away. Home run by Guillen to the right. 4-3. Fly out to Kubel, ground out to Tolbert, pop up to Harris. End of 7. Twins 4-3. 84 pitches for Baker

Harris flies out to center. Pitching change, sidearmer Rapada in. Mauer grounds out to 2nd. A couple of questionable pitches to Morneau called strikes (gameday shows them as balls) and he strikes out. Bottom of 8. Crain in. 94 mph fastball for a strike; then a great 74 mph curve for a strike... strikeout on a 95 mph fastball. Walk. Bad throw on a pick up play. Runner to 3rd. Foul pop to Mauer. Double to right. 4-4. 2-run homer by Cabrerra. 6-4 Tigers. Ground out to Morneau. 6-4 Tigers

Todd Jones in for Detroit & a couple of defensive changes. Young gets a triple to the right, almost out of the park. Kubel grounds out to the pitcher. Monroe singles Young home to left. Span pinch running. Lamb flies out to right. Tolbert strikes out. Twins lose 6-5

Twins MVP: Mauer

Giving Caesar what belongs to Caesar

A big reason that the Twins lost last night's game, was the managing of Gardenhire. Specific managing mistakes:

1. Starting Span in RF instead on Monroe
   
2. Keeping Span in the game after the home run
   
3. Subing Punto for Lamb in the 8th. In the 9th Punto was the winning run on the plate with runners on 1st and 2nd with no outs. Who do you want in this situation, Punto or Lamb
   
4. Not pinch-hitting for Punto with Tolbert or Monroe in the above situation
   
5. Over utilizing Guerrier and underutilizing Crain in the pen. Crain last pitched 1 inning on 4/11, Guerrier on 4/12.
   
6. He kept both Guerrier and Neshek in too long. With Reyes and Crain rested it, there is no excuse. Also is there a written rule in Gardy’s book that the closer cannot come in before the 9th?
   

For most of his career, "Gardy" has given a free ride by the press and Twins' management (like not being held accountable for the sub par season this year). It's about time that changes, before this season is lost. He is not swinging the bat and making pitches, but he decides who swings the bat and who makes those pitches. I will be keeping track of his mistakes that cost games for the Twins throughout the season. This archive can be found here

A bit of batting research

A frequently made statement is that the Twins failures in the Gardenhire era are partly due to the Twins hitting philosophy of slapping the ball to the opposite field advancing the runners instead of slugging away.

To test this hypothesis I looked at the slugging% of players who were with the Twins in the Gardenhire era and then joined other teams. I am comparing their SLG% their last year with the Twins with those of their first year with another team and 3 years removed from the Twins. If the hypothesis is correct there will be a significant rise in SLG % when left the Twins at least by 3 years. The list is for 150AB/year minimum.

Here is the data:

Batter        SLG@MIN     SLG@MIN+1    SLG@MIN+3

David Ortiz    .500        .592        .604
Jacque Jones   .438        .499        N/A (2008)
Todd Walker    .397        .459        .431
C Guzman       .384        .314        .446 
Dustan Mohr    .399        .437         <150AB but .466 MIN+2
Bobby Kielty   .400        .370        .441
D. Mientk      .363        .407        .440
*AJ Pierzynski .464        .410        .436
Matt Lawton    .415        .399        .421
Brian Buchanan .415        .455         <150AB
Casey Blake    .250        .411        .438  (less than 150AB @MIN)
*Corey Coskie  .495        .398         out of baseball 
Shannon Steward .368       .394         N/A (2009)
Chris Gomez    .354        .346        .439
Javier Valentin .381       .356        .520

From the 15 players listed the only 2 that do not follow this hypothesis are AJ Pierzynski and Corey Coskie (and Corey was out of baseball at the second data point.) How big is the difference? The average player including Coskie & Pierzynksi, raised their slugging percentage by 16 base points they year after they left the Twins and by 65 base points the third year away from the Twins organization and hitting philosophy.

I think that the data certainly supports this hypothesis...

Part 2: looking at the newcomers into the Twins organization

Here is the list for the players who came into the Twins organization from others during this era. I am comparing their SLG% the year before joined the Twins with those of their first 2 years with the Twins. If the hypothesis is correct there will be a significant drop in SLG % when join the Twins at least by 2 years. The list is for 150AB/year minimum. The sample size is smaller because the Twins do not usually bring established players into the organization:

Batter             SLG@MIN-1    SLG@MIN    SLG@MIN2

Shannon Steward    .459        .447        .388
Juan Castro        .378        .386        .308
Luis Castillo      .374        .370        .352 
Rondell White      .489        .365        .321 (<150AB) 
Tony Batista       .455        .388         N/A (not with the Twins)
Jeff Cirillo       .414        .327         N/A (not with the Twins)

Clearly, the data show that if not by the first, by the second year a player from another batting philosophy joins the Twins, his slugging % will suffer measurably.

The data speak... It is time for a change in this philosophy

Two series in the books

The Twins lost today 3-1 to the Royals and are 3-4 for the year. Some observations so far:

• The pitching, esp starting pitching has been performing well. Bill Madden, of the New York Daily news wrote an interesting article suggesting that the number of 7-inning performances by a teams' starting staff is a good indicator of a team's potential to make the playoffs. So far the Twins have 4 games where the starters when 7 or more, compared to 2 such games after 7 total games last season. This improvement, albeit predicted here, is generally surprising.


• Pitching has been the strength of this team, resulting in 6 out seven games this season being close (decided by 2 runs or less) vs only 2 close games in the first 7 games in 2007. This team scored 19 runs in the first 7 games of 2008 vs. 23 in those of 2007. The offense is lagging and some adjustments might need to be made.


• Cuddyer, Kubel, Lamb, Monroe and Young have been "slow starters" if you compare their performances in April vs those at the rest of the season for the span of their careers. Young has been hitting adequately for average but not been driving in runs. Lamb played only sparingly in the month of April, because he is a slow starter. With the emergence of Tolbert, it might be worthwhile to give Harris several starts in the 3B (that is his natural position), while keeping Lamb on the bench.


• The DH situation is a problem with the only visible solution to wait until Kubel or Monroe find their groove. The other observation is that the bench is flawed, because of the taxing with the 12-man pitching staff (that is probably unnecessary with the performance of the starters so far) and the presence of Nick Punto who with the emergence of Tolbert is reduced to a late inning defensive replacement that is probably a luxury in a team that has a power outage. The reduction of the pitching staff to 11 and moving Punto along with one of the current bullpen parts (Rincon?), might result in a much needed bat, as originally proposed.
  Alternatively, and even more importantly, what would it take to pry away a superstar in the making in his arbitration year from a team that cannot afford him, in a year where the Twins have excess in budget? What would it take to bring Hanley Ramirez from the Marlins? If Smith let the Marlins pick 5 or 6 people from the organization other than Gomez, Mauer, Morneau, Nathan, Slowey, Liriano, Baker, Blackburn, Crain, Hernandez, Guerrier and Reyes, I think that it might happen. In the worse case scenario, Kubel, Guerra, Casilla, Span, Revere and Swarzak will go to the Marlins. I think that its a price that the Twins should be willing to pay


• On other notes: Santana hit a double today, but lost to the Braves. Soria will be special for the Royals. Cleveland came back to win in Oakland. I'd be following the late AL Central game

Today's Twins MVP: Morneau