Even more about pitching

The 4 game differential in the previous post is somewhat high level and I wanted to get a bit more granular to increase the accuracy of the statistical argument.

Here are the home road splits posted previously:

Joe Nathan: Home ERA 0.86,Road ERA 2.79
Dennys Reyes: Home ERA 1.32,Road ERA 4.00
Matt Guerrier: Home ERA 1.46, Road ERA 5.74
Jesse Crain: Home ERA 1.47, Road ERA 4.72
Nick Blackburn: Home ERA 2.20, Road ERA 5.06
Scott Baker: Home ERA 2.28,Road ERA 4.60
Brian Bass: Home ERA 3.20, Road ERA 6.95
Livan Hernandez: Home ERA 3.86, Road ERA 7.0
Boof Bonser: Home ERA 5.73,Road ERA 8.55

additionally pitchers not currently with the team are:

Juan Rincon: Home ERA 3.68,Road ERA 8.78
Pat Neshek: Home ERA 1.29,Road ERA 8.53
Bobby Korecky: Home ERA 6.00,Road ERA 2.45
Francisco Liriano: Home ERA 5.40,Road ERA 16.88

by subtracting road from home era, subtracting the differential between the league average Home ERA 3.89, Road ERA 4.48 (.59) and dividing by 9 to get runs per inning pitched that the team would have gained if the Twins' pitchers were pitching on the road with the same effectiveness that the league average pitcher does, based on home ERA:

Joe Nathan: 0.15 R/IP
Dennys Reyes: 0.23 R/IP
Matt Guerrier: 0.41 R/IP
Jesse Crain: 0.30 R/IP
Nick Blackburn: 0.25 R/IP
Scott Baker: 0.19 R/IP
Brian Bass: 0.35 R/IP
Livan Hernandez: 0.28 R/IP
Boof Bonser: 0.25 R/IP
Juan Rincon: 0.50 R/IP
Pat Neshek: 0.74 R/IP
Francisco Liriano: 1.21 R/IP


Looking at the Twins road losses and adjusting the score based on the above numbers (i.e. if Livan Hernandez pitched 5 innings and Brian Bass 4, in a hypothetical 5-0 loss, the adjusted score would be 5-(0.28*5 )-(0.35*4)= 2-0. To make it fair to the particular game, if a pitcher did not allow any runs, his differential will not be counted. Here is a list of those road losses, the original score and the adjusted score, along with win loss differential for the Twins and other AL Central teams:

Apr 7 @CHW act: L 4-7 adj: L 4-5
Apr 13 @KCR act: L 1-5 adj: W 1-0 diff +1 Twins -1 KC
Apr 14 @DET act: L 9-11 adj: W 9-8 diff +2 Twins -1 KC -1 Det
Apr 15 @DET act: L 5-6 adj: W 5-4 diff +3 Twins -1 KC -2 Det
Apr 23 @OAK act: L 0-3 adj: L 0-1 diff +3 Twins -1 KC -2 Det
Apr 24 @OAK act: L 2-11 adj: L 2-9 diff +3 Twins -1 KC -2 Det
Apr 25 @TEX act: L 5-6 adj: W 5-4 diff +4 Twins -1 KC -2 Det
Apr 27 @TEX act: L 0-10 adj: L 0-8 diff +4 Twins -1 KC -2 Det
May 6 @CHW act: L 1-7 adj: L 1-5 diff +4 Twins -1 KC -2 Det
May 8 @CHW act: L 2-6 adj: L 1-4 diff +4 Twins -1 KC -2 Det
May 17 @COL act: L 2-3 adj: W 2-1 diff +5 Twins -1 KC -2 Det
May 18 @COL act: L 2-6 adj: L 2-6 diff +5 Twins -1 KC -2 Det
May 24 @DET act: L 3-19 adj: L 3-16 diff +5 Twins -1 KC -2 Det
Jun 6 @CHW act: L 6-10 adj: L 6-8 diff +5 Twins -1 KC -2 Det
Jun 7 @CHW act: L 2-11 adj: L 2-9 diff +5 Twins -1 KC -2 Det
Jun 8 @CHW act: L 2-12 adj: L 2-11 diff +5 Twins -1 KC -2 Det
Jun 9 @CHW act: L 5-7 adj: L 5-7 diff +5 Twins -1 KC -2 Det
Jun 10 @CLE act: L 0-1 adj: L 0-0 diff +5 Twins -1 KC -2 Det (assume loss)
Jun 12 @CLE act: L 2-12 adj: L 2-10 diff +5 Twins -1 KC -2 Det
Jun 15 @MIL act: L 2-4 adj: L 2-4 diff +5 Twins -1 KC -2 Det

According to this, the Twins record should have been 45-31 (a .592 winning percentage that projects to 96 wins for the season). If the pitching preparation problems were fixed, they type of discussions that are happening today wouldn't be happening... It is still early. There are 86 games left in the season. If the team identifies the problems, adjusts and plays the remaining 86 games at the potential .592 rate, it will finish the season with 91 wins, easily on top of the AL Central. The team management should really focus on this vs. adding bats...