DSL Season opener

It is not a secret that one of my favorite MLB-affiliated minor leagues (and probably the most obscure and hardest to follow) is the Dominican Summer League. Last season the DSL Twins finished with an overall 46-24 record on top of the Boca Chica Northern Division. The 2009 DSL season started last Saturday with DSL Twins blanking the DSL Reds 3-0, with the 19 year old Pedro Guerra, who last year I indicated as the best arm in the Twins' minor league system in my opinion, starting the game. The next game is today, since they never play baseball on Sundays in the Dominican Republic.

Here is the 2009 DSL Roster (from MiLB.com), with the players who were in the 2008 squad in italics and off-set:

#  Name                  Pos  Bat  Thw     Ht       Wt      DOB       
9 Ricardo Arevalo         P    R    R     6' 3"    210    02-28-1991 
43 Carlos Carrillo        P    R    R     6' 4"    180    11-25-1989  
4 Cesar Ciurcina          P    R    R     5' 11"   192    10-23-1990 
2 Frank Frias             P    R    R     6' 3"    170    08-15-1989 
39 Pedro Guerra        P    R    R     6' 0"    180    01-09-1990
17 Edgar Martinez         P    R    R     6' 0"    145    09-01-1990 
20 Francisco Nunez        P    R    R     6' 3"    180    12-28-1991
33 Luis Nunez             P    L    L     5' 11"   160    09-26-1991 
44 Renzo Reverol       P    R    R     6' 2"    192    01-24-1991
40 Wilson Sanchez         P    R    R     6' 1"    175    05-06-1991 
27 Eddy Santana        P    R    R     6' 1"    165    09-21-1987 
10 Manuel Soliman         P    R    R     6' 2"    185    08-11-1989 
26 Orlando Villaroel   P    R    R     6' 1"    190    03-08-1990

Catchers 
#         Name           Pos  Bat  Thw     Ht       Wt       DOB 
8 Felix Gallardo         C     R    R     6' 1"    178    06-25-1991 
38 Randy Pina         C     R    R     6' 0"    189    05-01-1991
35 Jairo Rodriguez    C     R    R     5' 11"   180    08-24-1988

Infielders 
#  Name                  Pos  Bat  Thw      Ht       Wt       DOB  
31 Victor Arias       SS    S    R     5' 11"    170   03-26-1991 
32 Juan Blanco        2B    R    R     5' 10"    152   04-24-1989
28 Pedro Estaba          SS    S    R     5' 10"    165   08-04-1992 
22 Lesther Galvan     DH    R    R     5' 10"    178   04-10-1990
19 Yorby Martinez     3B    S    R     6' 0"     170   01-12-1989
1 Daniel Santana      SS    S    R     5' 11"    150   11-07-1990 
23 Kelvin Silvania       1B    L    L     6' 1"     185   10-03-1990 

Outfielders 
#  Name                  Pos  Bat  Thw      Ht       Wt       DOB  
11 Felix Caro         LF    R    R     6' 0"     186    03-20-1990 
7 Ernesto Ciprian        OF    R    R     6' 2"     175    02-09-1991 
36 Alexandre De Oliveira OF    L    R     6' 1"     185    07-15-1992 
5 Yancarlo Franco     LF    R    R     5' 9"     145    08-29-1988 
21 Wilfy Gil          CF    R    R     6' 2"     180    11-10-1989 
25 Kelvin Ortiz          OF    R    R     5' 11"    178    10-19-1991
1 Candido Pimentel       OF    S    R     5' 11"    160    07-19-1990 
10 Emilio Sepulveda      OF    R    R     6' 2"     170    08-27-1991 
12 Romy Trinidad         OF    R    R     6' 2"     170    05-14-1991 

Several players are returning, but the roster has undergone a major overhaul, especially on the pitching side. There are two 16 year old in the roster and many 17 and 18 year old players. The DSL Twins team has 14 players who were born in 1991 or earlier.

Here is another exciting thing: What happened to the players who were there in 2008 but are not here in 2009. As you may remember one batter and several pitchersfrom the 2008 DLS squad were included in my lists of the Top Twins' prospects from this off-season. The exiting news is that they might be coming up north to join the GCL or the Elizabethton Twins when these teams start their season.

This is pure speculation, based on 2008 records and rosters. No announcement has been made yet, so it is breaking news :)

Here are the 2008 DSL pitchers with their current age and 2008 record who might be playing in the US this season:

Adrian Salcedo, 18, RHS, 1.65 ERA, 0.842 WHIP, 6.9 K/9, 6.25 K/BB (65.1 IP)
Ramon Acosta, 22, RHS, 0.00 ERA, 0.640 WHIP, 5.8 K/9, 3.89 K/BB (54.2 IP)
Jose Gonzales, 19, LHR, 1.87 ERA, 0.861 WHIP, 11.5 K/9, 4.78 K/BB (33.2 IP)
Leonardo Parra, 22 RHR, 1.41 ERA, 0.761 WHIP, 6.6 J/9, 4.71 K/BB (44.2 IP)
Edison Alvarez, 20, RHR, 2.09 ERA, 1.060 WHIP, 8.6 K/9, 5.29 K/BB, 15 saves (38.2 IP)

The following pitchers probably did not make the cut and were released by the Twins' organization:

Raynard Doran, RHP, 21
Jhon Garcia, RHP, 22 (big strikeout pitcher but oft injured, I would be surprised to see him North)
Deivi Germosen, RHP, 19
Lesmir Vargas, RHP, 22

The following batter and second in my Twins hitting prospect list, most certainly will be playing with the GCL Twins or with the Elizabethton Twins (the DSL league average OPS for 2008 was .660) :

Jairo Perez, C, RH, 21: .338/.437/.525

most likely made the cut:

Oswaldo Arcia, OF, SH, 18: .293/.343/.432

the following position players probably did not make the cut and were released by the organization:

Jhonatan Arias, 20 (.612 OPS)
Jean Carlos Mercedes, 21 (.670 OPS)
Rafael Sanchez, 19 (.570 OPS)
Eliel Sierra, 23 (.717 OPS)
Manuel Soliman, 19 (.640 OPS)
Carlos Vasquez, 18 (.426 OPS)

It would be exciting to see what these young arms and Jairo Perez can do in the US-based minor leagues.

I will try to follow the DSL closely and you will see DSL players appearing in my "who is hot in the minors" lists starting next week sometime after a week or so of games

Shedding light to the obscured minor league I: DSL. The path to the majors

A quick look at every minor league prospect list be it from Baseball America, scouts.com, or any specialized team web site or blog or a quick look to the potential draft picks, high school or college age, seems to ignore a very important fact:

About as many first draft picks in the amateur draft (that includes players from the US and its protectorates, mainly Puerto Rico, and Canada) made the all star game as players who were signed as free agents in a young age from Latin American countries.

Let’s follow the path of an American high school phenom for a year who is drafted by a professional baseball team: He will most likely end up playing for the Gulf Coast League (GCL) in Florida or the Arizona league, depending on where the team that signed him plays its spring training games. Then depending on performance he will repeat another year at that level or move to the full season rookie leagues (Appalachian or Pioneer) or short season A league (New York/Penn league, Northwest league) depending on the affiliation of the team that singed him. Highly ranked prospects get major league contracts paying them about a million dollars a year for 5-6 years and a hefty sign on bonus, regardless the level a player is starting his professional career.

What is the path of a phenom from the Latin American countries? Usually signed at 15-16 years old, by a scout who scouts neighborhood street games and sees a kid who in his mind has some potential. The kid gets a $5-6,000 check at the best case (which almost always goes back to the family to take care of family bills and siblings and whatnot) and then is enrolled into a team’s “Academy”. There he receives education in English as well as in baseball. Depending on the time of year he signed the contract and his skills, the next year he might play in the Dominical Summer League. The DSL is the league that offers the highest level of competition for newly crowned Latin American professionals (btw, I still have a hard time trying to get figures on their salaries these days or their per diems, if some reader knows more about that, please contact me or comment on this post.)

Next step? If some satisfies the scouts there and/or plays a position that fits his team’s needs, during the offseason applications for passports, visas and other requirements are made so next year that player would enter the US (supposed armed with all the English and the cultural knowledge he learned in the ‘academy’) and join the GCL or the Arizona league and meet and play with his newly drafted professional colleagues…

(to be continued)

Remember the off-season contest is still on. Go to the link and give me your thoughts. 2 people did already. If 2 more do, you are all guaranteed to win a copy of one of the best minor league publications for the Twins, the Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook - 2009, by Seth Stohs of SethSpeaks.net a major authority in the Twins' blogosphere, personally autographed by Seth himself.

Stop the presses: I made a prospect list (or 2)

Top prospect lists are more of a form of art than a science, since they use observational rather than numerical data as an input. There are several prospect lists out there, so is there a need for another?

I have been trying to devise a way to evaluate prospects objectively, without gut feeling rankings that once made Tod Van Poppel the best prospect in baseball. Also, I strongly believe that starting pitching, relief pitching and position playing are different beasts, so lists that contain all 3 of them are mixing apples and oranges and tangerines. So, let's talk about oranges and tangerines and leave the apples for another day.

I created a preliminary formula mid-season, taking a cut in rating the Twins prospects after 2007. I knew that it was rough and extremely preliminary. Since, I devised the PE measurement, components of which were in the pitching evaluating formula and I think that this one is a bit more accurate, so I am willing to share with a bit more confidence.

The formula I use to evaluate Minor league pitching prospects is containing the following criteria

1. Overall effectiveness compared to the average MLB starter or reliever


2. Effectiveness improvement each of the last 2 years compared to the previous year


3. level of play (i.e. AAA, AA, A etc)


4. number of levels ascended


5. Age

The formula is:



Where PE is pitching efficiency this year, the MLB average PE is the average starter or reliever PE in the majors in 2008, depending on whether the prospect is a reliever (def: more games in relief than started) or a starter, the level is the highest level the player played that year described by as follows: Rk (DSL/GCL) 1, Rk (APP) 1.5, A 2, A+ 2.5, AA 3, AAA 4, MLB 5, and the levels ascended is the difference of the highest level played from the lowest level played the last 3 years (using the former numbers) + 1 (i.e. if a player started at A+ and assented to AAA, the levels ascended would be 4-2.5 = 1.5 + 1 = 2.5). The + 1 is there to avoid dividing by zero issues. Players that stay at the same level have level ascended = 1. Age is the age of the player in the beginning of a season. The effectiveness has a higher weight than improvement and improvement between this season and the last has a higher weight than improvement between last season and the season before. In order to keep the integrity of the results, players who showed a negative improvement were scored as 0; however negative effectiveness compared to MLB PE was scored as was.

Here is how the Twins' starting pitchers rank using this formula:

Daniel Osterbrock, 21, Rk (ELZ), 28.01

Pedro Guerra, 18, Rk (DSL), 14.18
Miguel Munoz, 19, Rk (GCL) 10.23
Adrian Salcedo, 17, Rk (DSL), 10.00

Eliecer Cardenas, 20 (Rk, DSL) 9.91
Ramon Acosta, 21, Rk (DSL) 8.70
Bobby Lanigan, 21, A, 7.99
Michael McCardell, 23, A, 7.53
David Bromberg, 20, A. 5.39

Anthony Swarzak, 22, AAA, 2.34
Tyler Robertson, 20, A+, 2.25
Shooter Hunt, 21, A, 2.23
Errol Simonitsch, 25, AA, 2.17 (released)
Angelo Sanchez, 19, Rk (GCL), 1.93
Martire Garcia, 18, Rk (GCL), 1.87
Michael Tarsi, 21, A, 1.60
Jeffrey Manship, 23, AA, 1.54
Kevin Mulvey, 23,AAA, 1.53
Cole Devries, 23, A+, 1.16
Philip Humber 25, AAA, 1.14

Brian Duensing, 25, AAA, 0.67
Ryan Mullins, 24, AA, 0.49
Steven Hirschfeld, 22, A, 0.41
Alex Burnett, 20, A+, 0.31
Yohan Pino, 24, AA, 0.26
Jay Rainville, 22, AA, 0.18

Daniel Berlind, 20, A, -0.19
Deolis Guerra, 19, A+, -0.46
Oswaldo Sosa, 22, AA, -0.95
Brian Kirwan, 20, A+, -0.96


Before the newly drafted class had a chance to make a dent I indicated that in my opinion, Pedro Guerra was the best arm in the Twins minor leagues, and that the DSL Twins have some of the best pitching prospects.Using these results, that statement proved to be pretty accurate. However, Dan Osterbrock who was drafted on the seventh round this year from University of Cinncinaty, put incredible numbers in Elizabethton (7-2, 13 GS, 75 IP, 104 K, 8 BB, 3.00 ERA, 1.04 WHIP) easily earning him the title of the best Twins starting pitching prospect.



Dan Osterbrock is a 6'3", 186 lbs, lefty from Cincinnati, OH. He has an 87-91 mph fastball with plus location and a great changeup, which is his out pitch. He needs to develop and improve his breaking pitches. Think of a lefty version of Kevin Slowey with a better change up and not as good breaking stuff. He helped lead Elizabethton to the best record in the Appalachian League.

The DSL wealth needs to be taken more seriously and the players need to be included in the prospect list pool; this is a fact.

As far as relievers go, here is the ranking:

Robert Delaney, 23, AA, 13.65

Jose Gonzalez, 18, Rk (DSL) 12.02
Andrei Lobanov, 18 Rk (GCL) 10.52
Leonardo Parra, 21, Rk (DSL), 10.42
Anthony Slama, 24, A+, 9.72
Michael Allen, 21, A+ 9.15
Edison Alvarez, 19, Rk (DSL) 8.07
Jose Mijares, 23, AA, 7.37

Curtis Leavitt, 21 Rk (Elz) 4.45
Joe Testa, 22, A+, 4.31
Bobby Korecky, 28, AAA 4.11
Matthew Williams, 21, A+. 4.09
David Martin, 22, A, 3.67
Steven Blevins, 21, A+, 3.14
Blair Erickson, 23, A+, 2.92
David Shinskie, 24, AA 2.85
Danny Rondon, 21, Rk (Elz) 2.69
Ben Julianel, 28, AA, 2.49
Renzo Reverol, 17, Rk (DSL) 2.25

Jose Lugo, 24, A+, 1.74
Santos Arias 21, A, 1.73
Matthew Fox, 25, A+, 1.28
Bradley Tippett, 20, A, 1.27
Kelvin Mota, 20, Rk (GCL) 1.17
Timothy Lahey, 26, AAA, 1.08
Carlos Gutierrez, 21, A+, 1.04

Charles Nolte, 22, A, 0.98
Spencer Steedley, 23, A+ 0.84
Ludovicus Van Mil, 23, A, 0.69
Thomas Wright, 20, Rk (Elz), 0.64
Mariano Gomez, 25, AAA, 0.55
Ricky Barrett, 27, AAA, 0.36
Frank Mata, 24, AA, 0.23
Armando Gabino, 24, AA, 0.07
Henry Reyes, 23, A+, 0.04
Jean Mijares, 20, Rk (GCL) 0.01

Bruce Pugh, 19, Rk (GCL) -0.06
Jay Sawatski, 26, AA, -0.18
Carlos Carrillo, 18, Rk (DSL), -0.27
Kyle Aselton 25, AA, -0.31
Chris Anderson 22, A, -0.72
Eddy Santana, 20, Rk (DSL) -0.83
Lesmir Vargas, 21, Rk (DSL), -0.84
Lee Martin, 22, Rk (Elz) -0.98
Michael Mopas, 20, Rk (GCL) -1.12 (released)
Danny Hernandez, 22, A+, -1.15


The ranking of the relievers indicates the the winner of the MiLB pitcher of the year award, Robert Delaney, is the best Twins' reliever prospect, which is not a surprise.

Back to the formula. Do I think it's perfect? Nope. But I think that if a pitcher has actualized a 12.48 K/9, 13 K/BB, and 1.04 WHIP season (Osterbrock) should be valued more and ranked higher than a pitcher who supposedly has better tools but has been regressing every year in his professional career (Deolis Guerra). Think of it as a car race: If a driver with a stock Chevy Impala beats a driver with a stock Ferrari Testarossa more kudos to him. The Ferrari guy needs to know how to use his car and until he proves so, he should not be taken seriously. And this is not a list of who is the most ready for the majors, but of who has the most potential based on actualized potential and improvement throughout his minor league career, factoring in his age and level of play.

Because people would like to see tidy lists, here is my list of the top 15 starting pitching prospects and the top 20 relief prospects.

Starters

1. Daniel Osterbrock


2. Pedro Guerra


3. Miguel Munoz


4. Adrian Salcedo


5. Eliecer Cardenas


6. Ramon Acosta


7. Bobby Lanigan


8. Michael McCardell


9. David Bromberg


10. Anthony Swarzak


11. Tyler Robertson


12. Shooter Hunt


13. Errol Simonitsch


14. Angelo Sanchez


15. Martire Garcia

Relievers

1. Robert Delaney


2. Jose Gonzalez


3. Andrei Lobanov


4. Leonardo Parra


5. Anthony Slama


6. Michael Allen


7. Edison Alvarez


8. Jose Mijares


9. Curtis Leavitt


10. Joe Testa


11. Bobby Korecky


12. Matthew Williams


13. David Martin


14. Steven Blevins


15. Blair Erickson


16. David Shinskie


17. Danny Rondon


18. Ben Julianel


19. Renzo Reverol


20. Jose Lugo

Now that I am done with the oranges and tangerines, next will take a look at the apples, but, alas, there are a lot of varieties of them, so they will need to be sorted out.