Here is the results of a first take of my formula that takes in account the following:
- Performance at the end of the year
- Performance vs the average league pitcher/batter in several categories
- Fielding Performance for Batters (compared to an average major leaguer)
- Improvement related to last year's performance (a factor that is somewhat passed by in most rankings)
- Level of play (A, AA, AAA, higher is better)
- Promotions to higher levels of play
- Age (younger is better)
All of these factors are weighted differently.
The results for the end-of-year 2007 (i.e. 2008 results not into consideration) prospects of note in the Twins' system:
De Paula 0.210
Van Mil 0.122
Sergio Santos 0.189
Johnny Woodard 0.157
Garett Guzman 0.112
Brian Dinkelman 0.102
Steven Tolleson 0.073
Brock Peterson 0.038
Dustin Martin 0.029
Revere etc N/A (only one season pro ball)
- * denotes pitchers whose somewhat surprising high ranking is helped by major improvement (this is not to say that they had league average or worse numbers; as a matter of fact they all have much better than league average numbers). Are those people overlooked, or the formula needs tweaking? Probably both. I know that the formula needs tweaking, but take Delaney for example. He finished 2007 with an ERA of 1.03 and a WHIP of 0.86 had 16 BB and 83 Ks in 70 innings. No matter what he should be very high in this list.
- I like that the numbers make some sense comparing pitchers to batters. It is true that the Twins system is richer in pitching prospects that batter and this is reflected here
- Some refinement with the weights is needed. The actually formula penalizes people who have digressed, even if the played in higher levels (see Humber or Lis for examples); on the other hand 0 and <0 denotes average and below prospect...
- When there are significant numbers I will run again for 2008
- Cutoff age was 26 years old at 2007
- I need to refine it so it includes first year prospects. As is to be included a prospect should have played 2 years of pro ball
here is my very preliminary top 25 list, at the end of 2007 season.
- De Paula
- Sergio Santos
- Johnny Woodard
- Van Mil
- Brian Dinkelman
- Steven Tolleson