Is Panacea spelled: P-E-A-V-Y?

It has been reported that the Chicago White Sox has reached an agreement with the San Diego Pardes in a trade for Jake Peavy. For the trade to get finalized, Peavy needs to lift his no-trade clause. Reportedly the White Sox will send their two top pitching prospects, both LH starters, Clayton Richard and Aaron Poreda who are ranked as the #3 and #2 prospects in the White Sox' system by Baseball America, plus 2 additional players.

Here is what Peavy is scheduled to make:

2010 $15 million
2011 $16 million
2012 $17 million
2013 $22 million (team option) or $4 million (buyout)

It is quite possible that he would need the option to be picked up to agree to the trade.

Is is a good deal for the Sox? Is it something that will help them win this season? Others have spoken already. but let's examine the facts.

A. Peavy pitches in the biggest park in the majors

Peavy calls Petco Park home, the largest and more pitcher friendly park in the majors. In order for him to be successful, he should produce in other park. Let's examine how he did that last 2 seasons away from Petco:

2009: 4.32 ERA, 1.240 WHIP, 9.0 K/9, 2.50 K/BB, OPP OPS .695
2008: 4.28 ERA, 1.454 WHIP, 8.0 K/9, 1.91 K/BB, OPP OPS .784

These are reasonable numbers, but they do not indicate an ace, nor justify a contract like his.

Let compare his numbers to another pitchers' numbers from the last 2 seasons to see whether there is an equivalent pitcher to Peavy away from Petco Peavy:

Pitcher X:

2009: 4.38 ERA, 1.399 WHIP, 4.2 K/9, 1.64 K/BB, OPP OPS .728
2008: 4.05 ERA, 1.360 WHIP, 4.5 K/9, 2.46 K/BB, OPP OPS .771

Peavy's number's away from Petco are very close to pitcher X's numbers, other than K/9 that, unfortunately for Peavy, do not translate to an OPP OPS advantage.

Who is pitcher X?

None other that the Twins' own Nick Blackburn.

So: outside Petco, Peavy is a slightly better Nick Blackburn...

B. Peavy pitches in the lesser league

That is a concern. Thanks to interleague play, we have an indication of how Peavy did against AL teams last season. That was his line:

3.94 ERA, 1.563 WHIP, .313 OPP BA, .839 OPP OPS

not that great

let's look at another available pitcher's line from last season against AL teams.

Pitcher Y: 5.40 ERA, 1.543 WHIP, .267 OPP BA, .670 OPP OPS

Other than the ERA, I would say that pitcher Y is much better.

Who is Pitcher Y? None else than the free agent future Hall of Famer, Pedro Martinez.

So here is the equation: What is better:

Peavy + $57-75 million + 4-5 players
or
Martinez + $5 million?

The case for the Twins adding a couple of free agents

Spring training is almost here, and the Twins' additions have been Luis Ayala, R.A. Dickey, Jason Jones and some minor league free agents. Even though Ayala's contract has not become official yet, he is the one of this off-season's additions most likely to stick with the major league club.

An interesting fact is that there are still the following free agents available (from here) :

Catchers
Gary Bennett (37)
Johnny Estrada (33)
Paul Lo Duca (37) - Type B, not offered arb
Ivan Rodriguez (37) - Type B, not offered arb

First basemen
Miguel Cairo (35)
Nomar Garciaparra (35)
Doug Mientkiewicz (35)
Richie Sexson (34)
Mark Sweeney (39)

Second basemen
Ray Durham (37)
Damion Easley (39)
Mark Grudzielanek (39) - Type B, offered arb
Orlando Hudson (31) - Type A, offered arb
Adam Kennedy (33)

Shortstops
Orlando Cabrera (34) - Type A, offered arb
Nomar Garciaparra (35)

Third basemen
Joe Crede (31)
Nomar Garciaparra (35)

Left fielders
Moises Alou (42) - Type B, not offered arb
Garret Anderson (37) - Type B, not offered arb
Emil Brown (34)
Luis Gonzalez (41) - Type B, not offered arb
Jay Payton (36)
Manny Ramirez (37) - Type A, offered arb

Center fielders
Jim Edmonds (39)

Right fielders
Emil Brown (34)
Ken Griffey Jr. (39) - Type B, not offered arb

DHs
Frank Thomas (41) - Type B, not offered arb
Jose Vidro (34)

Starting pitchers
Kris Benson (33)
Paul Byrd (38) - Type B, offered arb
Tom Glavine (43)
Livan Hernandez (34)
Orlando Hernandez (43)
Chuck James (27)
Jon Lieber (39)
Rodrigo Lopez (33)
Pedro Martinez (37)
Mark Mulder (31)
Sidney Ponson (32)
Kenny Rogers (44)
Curt Schilling (42)
Ben Sheets (30) - Type A, offered arb
Kip Wells (32)

Relievers
Joe Beimel (32) - Type B, not offered arb
Joe Borowski (38)
Shawn Chacon (31)
Chad Cordero (27)
Juan Cruz (30) - Type A, offered arb
Scott Elarton (33)
Keith Foulke (35)
Eric Gagne (33) - Type B, not offered arb
Jason Isringhausen (36) - Type B, not offered arb
Jon Lieber (39)
Aquilino Lopez (34)
Will Ohman (31)
Al Reyes (38)
Dennys Reyes (32) - Type B, offered arb
Ricardo Rincon (39)
Rudy Seanez (40) - Type B, not offered arb
Julian Tavarez (36)
Mike Timlin (43)
Ron Villone (39)
Kip Wells (32)
Matt Wise (33)

I have been making the case that the Twins still have holes at third base (where they are much bellow league average) and at the starting rotation. One of my proposed targets for the starting rotation, Pedro Martinez is still out there and the Twins should try to sign him. I have very little confidence in Perkins as I indicated in my analysis, based on his performance last season and on his stuff. Another consideration is that Tolbert and Buscher are at or below replacement level and being in their primes are not expected to get any better. One of the interesting names, who the Twins should offer a contract as a bench player, PH, part time DH, part time 1B, part time 3B, part time SS is Nomar Garciaparra. I would feel better seeing Nomar instead of Tolbert as a pinch hitter in the 8th inning for Punto when necessary. Nomar last year he hit .264/.326/.466, 105 OPS+ in limited action. Those numbers are better than Crede's last year across the board and Nomar will not cost much. Given that the Twins will not sign Hudson and Cabrera due to their type A status, and Crede does not really add that much (other than getting Buscher to Rochester), bring thing in the former Red Sox, will be a very wise and cost-effective route for the Twins to improve the team as spring training approaches