It has been reported that the Chicago White Sox has reached an agreement with the San Diego Pardes in a trade for Jake Peavy. For the trade to get finalized, Peavy needs to lift his no-trade clause. Reportedly the White Sox will send their two top pitching prospects, both LH starters, Clayton Richard and Aaron Poreda who are ranked as the #3 and #2 prospects in the White Sox' system by Baseball America, plus 2 additional players.
Here is what Peavy is scheduled to make:
2010 $15 million
2011 $16 million
2012 $17 million
2013 $22 million (team option) or $4 million (buyout)
It is quite possible that he would need the option to be picked up to agree to the trade.
Is is a good deal for the Sox? Is it something that will help them win this season? Others have spoken already. but let's examine the facts.
A. Peavy pitches in the biggest park in the majors
Peavy calls Petco Park home, the largest and more pitcher friendly park in the majors. In order for him to be successful, he should produce in other park. Let's examine how he did that last 2 seasons away from Petco:
2009: 4.32 ERA, 1.240 WHIP, 9.0 K/9, 2.50 K/BB, OPP OPS .695
2008: 4.28 ERA, 1.454 WHIP, 8.0 K/9, 1.91 K/BB, OPP OPS .784
These are reasonable numbers, but they do not indicate an ace, nor justify a contract like his.
Let compare his numbers to another pitchers' numbers from the last 2 seasons to see whether there is an equivalent pitcher to Peavy away from Petco Peavy:
2009: 4.38 ERA, 1.399 WHIP, 4.2 K/9, 1.64 K/BB, OPP OPS .728
2008: 4.05 ERA, 1.360 WHIP, 4.5 K/9, 2.46 K/BB, OPP OPS .771
Peavy's number's away from Petco are very close to pitcher X's numbers, other than K/9 that, unfortunately for Peavy, do not translate to an OPP OPS advantage.
Who is pitcher X?
None other that the Twins' own Nick Blackburn.
So: outside Petco, Peavy is a slightly better Nick Blackburn...
B. Peavy pitches in the lesser league
That is a concern. Thanks to interleague play, we have an indication of how Peavy did against AL teams last season. That was his line:
3.94 ERA, 1.563 WHIP, .313 OPP BA, .839 OPP OPS
not that great
let's look at another available pitcher's line from last season against AL teams.
Pitcher Y: 5.40 ERA, 1.543 WHIP, .267 OPP BA, .670 OPP OPS
Other than the ERA, I would say that pitcher Y is much better.
Who is Pitcher Y? None else than the free agent future Hall of Famer, Pedro Martinez.
So here is the equation: What is better:
Peavy + $57-75 million + 4-5 players
Martinez + $5 million?