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5/21/09

Is Panacea spelled: P-E-A-V-Y?

It has been reported that the Chicago White Sox has reached an agreement with the San Diego Pardes in a trade for Jake Peavy. For the trade to get finalized, Peavy needs to lift his no-trade clause. Reportedly the White Sox will send their two top pitching prospects, both LH starters, Clayton Richard and Aaron Poreda who are ranked as the #3 and #2 prospects in the White Sox' system by Baseball America, plus 2 additional players.

Here is what Peavy is scheduled to make:

2010 $15 million
2011 $16 million
2012 $17 million
2013 $22 million (team option) or $4 million (buyout)

It is quite possible that he would need the option to be picked up to agree to the trade.

Is is a good deal for the Sox? Is it something that will help them win this season? Others have spoken already. but let's examine the facts.

A. Peavy pitches in the biggest park in the majors

Peavy calls Petco Park home, the largest and more pitcher friendly park in the majors. In order for him to be successful, he should produce in other park. Let's examine how he did that last 2 seasons away from Petco:

2009: 4.32 ERA, 1.240 WHIP, 9.0 K/9, 2.50 K/BB, OPP OPS .695
2008: 4.28 ERA, 1.454 WHIP, 8.0 K/9, 1.91 K/BB, OPP OPS .784

These are reasonable numbers, but they do not indicate an ace, nor justify a contract like his.

Let compare his numbers to another pitchers' numbers from the last 2 seasons to see whether there is an equivalent pitcher to Peavy away from Petco Peavy:

Pitcher X:

2009: 4.38 ERA, 1.399 WHIP, 4.2 K/9, 1.64 K/BB, OPP OPS .728
2008: 4.05 ERA, 1.360 WHIP, 4.5 K/9, 2.46 K/BB, OPP OPS .771

Peavy's number's away from Petco are very close to pitcher X's numbers, other than K/9 that, unfortunately for Peavy, do not translate to an OPP OPS advantage.

Who is pitcher X?

None other that the Twins' own Nick Blackburn.

So: outside Petco, Peavy is a slightly better Nick Blackburn...

B. Peavy pitches in the lesser league

That is a concern. Thanks to interleague play, we have an indication of how Peavy did against AL teams last season. That was his line:

3.94 ERA, 1.563 WHIP, .313 OPP BA, .839 OPP OPS

not that great

let's look at another available pitcher's line from last season against AL teams.

Pitcher Y: 5.40 ERA, 1.543 WHIP, .267 OPP BA, .670 OPP OPS

Other than the ERA, I would say that pitcher Y is much better.

Who is Pitcher Y? None else than the free agent future Hall of Famer, Pedro Martinez.

So here is the equation: What is better:

Peavy + $57-75 million + 4-5 players
or
Martinez + $5 million?

5 comments:

Marv said...

Hey thry -
You're not going to give up on Pedro, are you? I suspect he really could help someone (maybe some team near you, er, me).
The Sabathia signing has good pitchers all excited, but CC is unlikely to be as dominating as the Yankee fans hope.
A Santana does not come along very often. I respect CC, but he is no Johan.
And Peavey is neither of them.

Once again, fun stats. Thanks

P.S. 20 runs? Hmmm...

thrylos98 said...

Marv,

I really want the Twins to try to get Danny Haren from the Diamondbacks. I am not sure whether that will happen (probably not)... All I was trying to indicate is that Peavy is not the pitcher people make him to be.

I like Pedro. I like him a lot. I used to live in Boston when he was the man. That said, I can see that being a Steve Carlton-like signing that can energize the team and the crowd.
(Parenthesis: little known fact, but the Twins' single game attendance record in the dome - and elsewhere- was in the summer of '87 for the first game that Carlton started as a Twin)
And can you imagine what the guy can do for Liriano and Mijares and Ayala (and Gomez and Casilla?) He is practically deified in the Dominican.

The Twins' today kept the ghost of Redmond's past over a much more deserving player just because of what he supposedly brings in the clubhouse (and Redmond has been a scrub all his life). Can you imagine the kind of energy that Pedro will bring in that clubhouse?

about those 20 runs: I was hoping that they'll save about 15 of them for the next 3 games, but it is fun to say that they delivered the worse loss the Sux ever experienced...

Marv said...

Worst lose the Bitchsox ever suffered?
Maybe it was all worth it.

thrylos98 said...

maybe :)

but how do you take Mauer out of the game when he desperately needs PAs to qualify for the batting title and why burn your set up man and close in the same 20-0 blow out. There are those people who think that they might "need work". Go to the pen and throw 20-30 pitches. That's work. Same stuff Gardy pulled with Crain and then we know what happened...

Derek W. said...

Just want to say 'thank you' for using your brain in your posts and not being a complete idiot like some other bloggers. That guy over at Twins Fix is a joke!