The Twins 40-man roster Part 1: Who should stay and who should go

After a historically bad season that resulted in the worst record of the Franchise in its current location, Twins' about to be minted (as soon as Cleveland's season is over) new chief baseball officer, Derek Falvey, will have his hands full in turning this team around.  I hope that he has enough flexibility to do a true rebuild.  And a true rebuild is to find enough young talented players that will reach their primes together, and then supplemented by star veterans to close holes as necessary, will compete for a long time.

Looking at the Twins' young talent and how their 40-man roster for 2017 should be built, young is an operating word.  Here is the current Twins' 40-man roster by age groups:  a. Players who will be 26 and younger on 1/1/2017 who should be part of the rebuilt; b. players who will be 28 or older who really do not belong in a rebuilding team, since they will be past their primes when the new Twins' core will reach their primes, and; c. players who are in-between.  The 27 year olds:

 The listing is alphabetical with birthdays

Andrew Albers 10/6/1985
James Beresford 1/19/1989
Jose Berrios 5/27/1994
Buddy Boshers 5/9/1988
Byron Buxton 12/18/1993
Juan Centeno 11/16/1989
J.T. Chargois 12/3/1990
Pat Dean 5/25/1989
Brian Dozier 5/15/1987
Tyler Duffey 12/27/1990
Eduardo Escobar 1/5/1989
Kyle Gibson 10/23/1987
Robbie Grossman 9/16/1989
Phil Hughes 6/24/1986 (60-day DL)
Max Kepler 2/10/1993
Brandon Kintzler 8/1/1984
Yorman Landa 6/11/1994
Pat Light 3/29/1991
Joe Mauer 4/19/1983
Trevor May 9/23/1989
Adalberto Mejia 6/20/1993
Mason Melotakis 6/28/1991
Tommy Milone 2/16/1987
John Ryan Murphy 5/13/1991
Ryan O'Rourke 4/30/1988
Byungho Park 7/10/1986
Glen Perkins 3/2/1983  (60-day DL)
Trevor Plouffe 6/15/1986
Ryan Pressly 12/15/1988
Jorge Polanco 7/5/1993
Taylor Rogers 12/17/1990
Eddie Rosario 9/28/1991
Randy Rosario 5/18/1994
Ervin Santana 12/12/1982
Hector Santiago 12/16/1987
Miguel Sano 5/11/1993
Logan Schafer 9/8/1986
Kurt Suzuki 10/4/1983
Michael Tonkin 11/19/1989
Kennys Vargas 8/1/1990
Adam Walker 10/18/1991
Alex Wimmers 11/1/1988


These 42 players sorted in the 3 age groups:

Young enough:

Jose Berrios 5/27/1994  
Byron Buxton 12/18/1993
J.T. Chargois 12/3/1990
Tyler Duffey 12/27/1990
Max Kepler 2/10/1993
Yorman Landa 6/11/1994
Pat Light 3/29/1991
Adalberto Mejia 6/20/1993
Mason Melotakis 6/28/1991
John Ryan Murphy 5/13/1991
Jorge Polanco 7/5/1993
Taylor Rogers 12/17/1990
Eddie Rosario 9/28/1991
Randy Rosario 5/18/1994
Miguel Sano 5/11/1993
Kennys Vargas 8/1/1990
Adam Walker 10/18/1991

Too old:

Andrew Albers 10/6/1985
Buddy Boshers 5/9/1988
Brian Dozier 5/15/1987
Kyle Gibson 10/23/1987
Phil Hughes 6/24/86
Brandon Kintzler 8/1/1984
Joe Mauer 4/19/1983
Tommy Milone 2/16/1987
Ryan O'Rourke 4/30/1988
Byungho Park 7/10/1986
Glen Perkins 3/2/83
Trevor Plouffe 6/15/1986
Ryan Pressly 12/15/1988
Ervin Santana 12/12/1982
Hector Santiago 12/16/1987
Logan Schafer 9/8/1986
Kurt Suzuki 10/4/1983
Alex Wimmers 11/1/1988

In between: 

James Beresford 1/19/1989
Juan Centeno 11/16/1989
Pat Dean 5/25/1989
Eduardo Escobar 1/5/1989
Robbie Grossman 9/16/1989
Trevor May 9/23/1989
Michael Tonkin 11/19/1989


Let's look at the in between and see who could potentially offer value:

James Beresford 1/19/1989
Juan Centeno 11/16/1989
Pat Dean 5/25/1989
Eduardo Escobar 1/5/1989
Robbie Grossman 9/16/1989
Trevor May 9/23/1989
Michael Tonkin 11/19/1989

Centeno, Escobar, and May can provide some value.  Centeno who might be the weakest of the 3, has options, so he does not preclude the team . So they stay.  Beresford, Dean, Grossman, and Tonkin are designated for assignment.

New Keeper list (with positions) :

Jose Berrios 5/27/1994 (SP)  
Byron Buxton 12/18/1993 (CF)
Juan Centeno 11/16/1989 (C)
J.T. Chargois 12/3/1990 (RP)
Tyler Duffey 12/27/1990 (RP)
Eduardo Escobar 1/5/1989 (IF)
Max Kepler 2/10/1993 (RF)
Yorman Landa 6/11/1994 (RP)
Pat Light 3/29/1991 (RP)
Trevor May 9/23/1989 (SP)
Adalberto Mejia 6/20/1993 (SP)
Mason Melotakis 6/28/1991 (RP)
John Ryan Murphy 5/13/1991 (C)
Jorge Polanco 7/5/1993 (SS)
Taylor Rogers 12/17/1990 (RP)
Eddie Rosario 9/28/1991 (LF)
Randy Rosario 5/18/1994 (RP)
Miguel Sano 5/11/1993 (3B)
Kennys Vargas 8/1/1990 (1B)
Adam Walker 10/18/1991 (OF/DH)

Up to 20 total and most positions of the diamond taken care off.

Let's have a close look to the ones who are too old to belong to a rebuilding team, look into their contract situation, and add potential value to a trade partner:

Andrew Albers 10/6/1985  - no value
Buddy Boshers 5/9/1988  - maybe some value, one option left
Brian Dozier 5/15/1987 - signed until 2018, $15M owed, career season, strong value
Kyle Gibson 10/23/1987 - arbitration eligible, some value
Phil Hughes 6/24/1986 - signed until 2019, $39.6M owed, major surgery
Brandon Kintzler 8/1/1984 - arbitration eligible, some value
Joe Mauer 4/19/1983 - signed until 2018, $46M owed, declining
Tommy Milone 2/16/1987 - abitration eligible, no value
Ryan O'Rourke 4/30/1988 - no value
Byungho Park 7/10/1986 - signed until 2019, $9.3M owed, major investment
Glen Perkins 3/2/1983 - signed until 2017, $7.2M owed
Trevor Plouffe 6/15/1986 - arbitration eligible, some value
Ryan Pressly 12/15/1988 - arbitration eligible, some value
Ervin Santana 12/12/1982 - signed until 2018 + option, $28M owed, close to career season, strong value
Hector Santiago 12/16/1987 - arbitration eligible, medium value
Logan Schafer 9/8/1986  - no value
Kurt Suzuki 10/4/1983 - free agent
Alex Wimmers 11/1/1988  - no value

The ones who do not have value, should go.  Suzuki will depart as a free agent, Albers, O'Rourke, Schafer, and Wimmers are designated for assignment, Milone is not offered arbitration.  The list trims to:


Buddy Boshers 5/9/1988  - maybe some value, one option left
Brian Dozier 5/15/1987 - signed until 2018, $15M owed, career season, strong value
Kyle Gibson 10/23/1987 - arbitration eligible, some value
Phil Hughes 6/24/1986 - signed until 2019, $39.6M owed, major surgery
Brandon Kintzler 8/1/1984 - arbitration eligible, some value
Joe Mauer 4/19/1983 - signed until 2018, $46M owed, declining
Byungho Park 7/10/1986 - signed until 2019, $9.3M owed, major investment
Glen Perkins 3/2/1983 - signed until 2017, $7.2M owed, might not pitch again
Trevor Plouffe 6/15/1986 - arbitration eligible, some value
Ryan Pressly 12/15/1988 - arbitration eligible, some value
Ervin Santana 12/12/1982 - signed until 2018 + option, $28M owed, close to career season, strong value
Hector Santiago 12/16/1987 - arbitration eligible, medium value

The 3 players with most value, Ervin Santana, Brian Dozier, and Hector Santiago should be traded, and the Twins will receive value back, as there will be takers.  The remaining players are in two lists: the arbitration-eligible, and team control players with some value, and the under contract with major questionmarks.  The players in those 2 lists represent 2 opposite sides of the same coin

The arbitration, and team control eligible players:

Buddy Boshers 5/9/1988  - maybe some value, one option left
Kyle Gibson 10/23/1987 - arbitration eligible, some value
Brandon Kintzler 8/1/1984 - arbitration eligible, some value
Trevor Plouffe 6/15/1986 - arbitration eligible, some value
Ryan Pressly 12/15/1988 - arbitration eligible, some value

The Twins should try to trade these players and package them with Dozier, Santana, and Santiago to receive better value.  If no team values them enough to trade for them, the Twins should let them go.  So trade or non-tendering (of DFA in Bosher's situation,)  all 5 will not be Twins in 2017.

Phil Hughes 6/24/1986 - signed until 2019, $39.6M owed, major surgery
Joe Mauer 4/19/1983 - signed until 2018, $46M owed, declining
Byungho Park 7/10/1986 - signed until 2019, $9.3M owed,+ $13M investment
Glen Perkins 3/2/1983 - signed until 2017, $7.2M owed, might not pitch again

The Twins are stuck with these 4 players.  These contracts and their injury or aging situations make them undesirable for any team.  The best case scenario for the Twins is that they all return healthy in 2017, start the season with the team and build enough value to be tradeable during the season.  Perkins will likely not be ready and the Twins have the luxury to add him to the 60-day DL in the beginning of the reason and bring him back slowly if healthy though a series of minor league rehabs, so there is some flexibility there.

So from today's 40-man roster, only the following 24 players (and potentially 23 effectively with a Perkins to the 60-day DL (*) senario) will be there this off-season:

Jose Berrios 5/27/1994 (SP)  
Byron Buxton 12/18/1993 (CF)
Juan Centeno 11/16/1989 (C)
J.T. Chargois 12/3/1990 (RP)
Tyler Duffey 12/27/1990 (RP)
Phil Hughes 6/24/1986 (SP)
Eduardo Escobar 1/5/1989 (IF)
Max Kepler 2/10/1993 (RF)
Yorman Landa 6/11/1994 (RP)
Pat Light 3/29/1991 (RP)
Joe Mauer 4/19/1983 (1B/DH)
Trevor May 9/23/1989 (SP)
Adalberto Mejia 6/20/1993 (SP)
Mason Melotakis 6/28/1991 (RP)
John Ryan Murphy 5/13/1991 (C)
Byungho Park 7/10/1986 (1B/DH)
Glen Perkins 3/2/1983 (RP) (*)
Jorge Polanco 7/5/1993 (SS)
Taylor Rogers 12/17/1990 (RP)
Eddie Rosario 9/28/1991 (LF)
Randy Rosario 5/18/1994 (RP)
Miguel Sano 5/11/1993 (3B)
Kennys Vargas 8/1/1990 (1B/DH)
Adam Walker 10/18/1991 (OF/DH)

This would allow the Twins 16 spots to add several of their prospects for 2017 auditions as well as a good flexibility to include several trade returns.  This list is light on starting pitchers , but the assumption is that they will be targeted in trades and that their number will get supplemented by one or more of the existing prospects in the system.  One note. It is obvious that the Twins are heavy on the DH position.  Park, Mauer, and Vargas can rotate in the first base and DH role, with the ability to have either both lefties or righties, with Vargas being an switch hitter, in a platoon situation, depending on opposing pitchers.  Which means that Adam Walker should be available in a trade at this point.

In the next article of this series will look at who of the existing prospects should move in the 40-man roster to either protect them from the draft or to supplement the MLB-level talent.