more Santana news - what are the Twins asking

From The LA daily news:

A source with knowledge of the Twins' position said Wednesday that the club is asking the Dodgers for a package of three or four players from a pool of six: pitchers Chad Billingsley and Jonathan Broxton, outfielders Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp, top pitching prospect Clayton Kershaw and third-base prospect Andy LaRoche. Whether the Twins would want three or four players depends on whom those players are

and from The NY Daily news:

To get Santana, the Yankees would likely have to package Cabrera with either Phil Hughes or Ian Kennedy in addition to one mid-level prospect. The loss of Garza means Minnesota would likely demand the third player be a pitcher, despite speculation that outfielders Austin Jackson and Jose Tabata could be part of a deal on the Yankees' end.
The Twins are interested in reliever Mark Melancon, a Yankees 2006 pick out of Arizona who missed the entire 2007 season following elbow surgery, although righthander Alan Horne of AA Trenton is also a possibility.

These 2 stories do not seem equivalent. I think that the story out of NY is wishful thinking. Cabrera, Kennedy and a AA pitcher would not be enough (that would have not been enough for the Garza-Bartlett trade with the Rays, btw). The LA story makes more sense: 3-MLB ready players and potentially a fourth prospect. It is hard to find data for similar trades, simply because aces of this caliber are not traded often and usually end up being signed as free agents. This trade that involved the Yankees is probably as close to an equivalent trade:

Roger Clemens (post season 1998) to Toronto for Homer Bush (after he had a 134 OPS+ rookie season), Graeme Lloyd (after a ridiculous season with 1.79 ERA, 0.85 WHIP and 264 ERA+), and David Wells (after his 18-4 season).

To translate that with today's Yankee's team, the equivalent would be something like

Cano + Chamberlain + Wang

for the other suitors:

Ellsbury + Beckett + Okajima

Milledge+ Perez + Heillman ++ (hard to find equivalence there)

Lackey+ Shields + Kotchman

Kent + Penny + Broxton

Given the Twins are not looking for the respective aces of the teams, plus their needs are different so a possible substitution of 2 prospects for the team's ace might suffice. This substitution plus some changes to reflect the needs and status of both teams including the players mentioned as untouchables, make the following fair trade returns:

Betemit (3B), Cabrera (CF), Hughes (SP), Shelley Duncan (DH/minors)

Youkilis+ Buchholz or Buchholz (SP), Ellsbury (CF), Jed Lowrie (3B/SS)

Reyes (SS) + Heilman (RP/SP)+ Milledge (CF) for Santana + Bonser/Rincon


Brandon Wood (3b) or Figgins (3b) + Jered Weaver (SP) + Reggie Willits (CF)


Kemp (CF)+ LaRoche (3b) + Broxton (RP) + Kershaw (SP or minors)

if the Twins get anything less, they would be the losers from some trade. There is a lot written about the downside to signing a 28 year old pitcher who is regarded as the best pitcher in baseball to a 7/8 year for $20-25 mil per year contract. However one of these teams signed a 32 yo outfielder to a six year with $16 mil a year (Angels); another payed about half that for the negotiating rights to a 27 yo pitcher who never threw a pitch in this country (Red Sox); another sighed a 36 yo catcher to a 4 year contract for $13 mill a year and a 37 y.o. closer to 3 years $15mil a year (Yankees)... so to lock up the best pitcher long term is not that risky compared to the above

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