Why do I think that the Twins can win this year? Part II 2007 retrospect: The Santana factor

Johan Santana last year won 15 and lost 13 games. Would he be missed this year?

Here is a list of the 2007 games in which the Twins won when Santana was the starting pitcher

4/2 BAL 7-4
4/8 @CHW 3-1 *
4/19 @SEA 6-5
5/5 BOS 2-1 *
5/22 @TEX 7-1
5/28 CWS 10-4
6/19 @NYM 9-0
6/24 @FLA 7-4
6/29 @DET 11-1
7/4 @NYY 6-2
7/14 @OAK 5-3
7/28 @CLE 3-2 *
8/8 @KCR 11-4
8/19 TEX 1-0*
8/24 @BAL 7-4
9/9 @CHW 5-2

So only in 4 of these wins (25% noted with asterisks above), the team scored fewer than 5 runs. In all 16 games the Twins won when Santana started, the team allowed an average of 2.38 runs per game

Let's look at the teams wins in games that Bonser, Baker and Slowey started in 2007.

4/3 BAL 3-2 Bonser *
4/21 @KCR 7-5 Bonser
4/26 KCR 1-0 Bonser *
5/8 CHW 7-4 Bonser
5/13 DET 16-4 Bonser
5/19 @MIL 8-1 Bonser *
5/23 @TEX 5-3 Bonser
5/29 CHW 9-2 Bonser
6/10 WSN 6-3 Bonser
7/15 OAK 4-3 Bonser *
8/23 @BAL 5-2 Bonser
9/10 @KCR 4-2 Bonser *
9/27 @BOS 5-4 BOnser

5/19 @MIL 5-2 Baker
5/25 TOR 4-3 Baker *
5/30 CHW 7-6 Baker
6/20 @NYM 6-2 Baker
6/26 TOR 2-1 Baker *
7/6 @CHW 20-14 Baker
7/12 OAK 6-2 Baker
7/30 KCR 3-1 Baker *
8/5 CLE 1-0 Baker *
8/26 @BAL 11-3 Baker
8/15 @SEA 6-1 Baker
8/31 KCR 5-0 Baker
9/11 @KCR 6-3 Baker

6/1 @OAK 3-2 Slowey*
6/12 ATL 7-3 Slowey
6/17 MIL 10-9 Slowey
6/30 @DET 8-5 Slowey
9/17 TEX 5-4 Slowey
6/6 @LAA 8-5 Slowey
9/23 CHW 7-1 Slowey

From the team's 13 wins in games that Bonser started, in 5 (38.4%) the team scored fewer that 5 runs. The team allowed an average of 2.69 runs per game, in games the Twins won with Bonser as the starting pitcher

From the team's 13 wins in games that Baker started, in 4 (30.8%) the team scored fewer that 5 runs. The team allowed an average of 2.77 runs per game (if we disregard the 7/6 game, the number drops to a very impressive 1.83), in games the Twins won with Baker as the starting pitcher

From the team's 7 wins in games that Slowey started, in 1 (14.3%) the team scored fewer that 5 runs. The team allowed an average of 4.14 runs per game, in games the Twins won with Slowey as the starting pitcher

Thus, arguably Baker and Bonser could potentially offset the loss of Santana, comparatively to 2007.