The 2007 Tiger's record on close games (less than 2 runs) was 35-33. An interesting observation is that in all but 3 of these they won, relievers who are either not with the team (Mesa, Ledesma, McBride) or are out for considerable portions of the season (Rodney, Zumaya.) Interesting to note the untouted contribution of McBride in July the first month he arrived from Atlanta.
Here is a list of the wins:
Apr 4 TOR W 10-9 Rodney
Apr 7 @KCR W 6-5 Zumaya
Apr 8 @KCR W 3-2 Rodney
Apr 10 @BAL W 3-1 Zumaya
Apr 12 @TOR W 5-4 Zumaya
Apr 17 KCR W 7-6 Ledesma
Apr 22 CHW W 6-5 Ledesma
Apr 29 MIN W 4-3 Zumaya
May 1 BAL W 5-4 Zumaya
May 2 BAL W 3-2 Rodney
May 5 @KCR W 7-5 Mesa
May 8 SEA W 9-7 Rodney
May 19 STL W 8-7 Rodney
May 23 LAA W 8-7 Mesa,
Jun 9 NYM W 8-7 Rodney
Jun 18 @WSN W 9-8
Jun 23 @ATL W 2-1 Rodney
Jul 1 MIN W 1-0
Jul 4 CLE W 6-4 McBride
Jul 7 BOS W 3-2 McBride
Jul 8 BOS W 6-5 McBride
Jul 17 @MIN W 1-0 McBride
Jul 18 @MIN W 3-2 McBride
Jul 19 @MIN W 4-3
Jul 21 KCR W 10-8 McBride
Aug 6 TBD W 6-4 Rodney
Aug 21 CLE W 2-1 Zumaya, Rodney
Aug 26 NYY W 5-4 Zumaya
Sep 5 CHW W 2-1 Zumaya
Sep 6 CHW W 3-2 Rodney
Sep 10 TOR W 5-4 Zumaya
Sep 14 @MIN W 4-2 Rodney
Sep 15 @MIN W 4-3 Zumaya
Sep 16 @MIN W 6-4 Zumaya
Sep 21 KCR W 5-4 Rodney
It is overoptimistic to assume that the Tigers will win the same number of close games as the did last year, based on the afforementioned bullpen deficiencies, plus the fact that Todd Jones is getting older and pitched very ineffectively in spring training. The only dependable pitcher in Detroit's bullpen is Bobby Seay, who is a specialist lefty. If their bullpen deficiencies result in a loss of 25% (9) of these games, Detroit's record, based on 2007 results would have been 79-83
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