When the strike zone looks like a diamond, what does July 2nd mean for a developing country and other early game day thoughts.

Just some sporadic thoughts on an early game day:

• The Twins won today at Milwaukee to take the series 2-1 from the Brewers. The Twins' record is up to .500 and are still 6 games in the loss column behind the Detroit Tigers in the second place of the AL Central.
  
  In today's game there were a lot of strike 3 calls and a lot of strike 3 non-calls by Hunter Wendelstedt, the home plate umpire, leaving players from both teams rolling their eyes. Here is Wendelstedt's strike zone today according to Brooksbaseball.net:
  
  
  
  This is a very consistent strike zone for both teams, but there is a little problem. It has the shape of a diamond and not of a square and it is shifted a bit to the left (from a LHB perspective). At least Wendelstedt is true to his name (wendel means "spiral" in German). It almost seems that he was calling balls and strikes with his right ear on his right shoulder... Try it and look at the picture. That's a pretty darn good strike zone with your ear on your shoulder



• Jerry Springer, has a TV "Show" that involves around (for lack of better descriptors) sad stories with some sort of controversial background, which usually end up in hair pulling and fights among his guests, which are usually targeted to a day time stay at home audience (I think.) Now it looks like is bridging into AAA English Baseball. God save the Queen.



• July 2nd is the start of the period for international signings in baseball. This day is akin to powerball lottery jackpot in the Dominican Republic. Here is an absolutely great three-part (make sure you read all 3) story with accompanied videos on what baseball means to the Dominicans, what does life and baseball look like to a 16 year old super prospect, like the Twins' target Miguel Angel Sano and what it means to be a Dominican Baseball player. Well worth 15 minutes of your time



• Bring on the Birds. The Twins are starting a 3 game weekend series tomorrow night at St. Louis against the Cardinals; here are some unstructured thoughts about this series:
  
  
  • Detroit has built a seven game winning streak. The Twins better try to sweep this one to stay close
  
  
  • I don't want Mauer to sit, but if he sits Morales and not Redmond better be the person who replaces him
  
  
  • I was listening to New York's WFAN 660 this afternoon (my default station in my car; sports talk) and Mike Francesa was talking about Albert Pujols being the next big steroid revelation (for what it counts)
  
  
  • It's going to be close to 100 degrees and fairly humid, which means that starters (of both teams) need to show extra stamina out there
  
  
  • It looks like the team will have a second baseman on the roster; either Punto or someone else, if Punto's MRI looks bad today. Since Casilla is in Gardenhire's dog house, I suspect that Tolleson will be the lucky guy who will make the trip west. I hope he get the opportunity to play and shines and sends down Tolbert and/or Buscher
  
  
  • If Gardenhire starts Cuddyer at second base as it has been reported, he needs a straight jacket. On the other hand that might give Young and Gomez some deserved plate appearances, but is suspect that the Twins' pitchers are not in love with the thought of Cuddyer as a second baseman
  
  
  
• Here is an actual piece of news: Shooter Hunt resurfaced at the GCL league today

Who is hot in the minors V5

This is the fifth version of the list of the best performing players in the Twins' minor league system year to date. The Elizabethton (Appalachian League) and the Gulf Coast League rookie teams have started play so some players might be included in the next version of this. DSL players were included in the last list. The numbers are as of 6/24. Some players have dropped from the list either because their performance dropped or because they were promoted (e.g. Keppel). This version includes players who have been performing highly at their current level and started the season cold in lower levels (e.g. Tolleson):

Catchers:

Allan De San Miguel (RHB, 21, A,A+,AA,AAA) .284/.429/.358 6 RBI, 84 PA
Danny Rams (RHB, 20, Rk/APP,A+) .438/.500/.688 6 RBI, 18 PA


Infielders:

Danny Valencia (RHB, 24, AAA) .291/.377/.489 7 HR, 31 RBI, 257 PA
Steven Tolleson (RHB, 25, AAA) .340/.421/.500 2 HR, 6 RBI, 107 PA
Brian Dinkelman (LHB, 25, AA) .330/.421/.476 3 HR, 32 RBI, 221 PA
Ramon Santana (RHB, 24, A) .326/.420/.503 5 HR, 31 RBI, 208 PA
Yorby Martinez (SH, 20, Rk/DSL) .340/.433/.360 8 RBI, 60 PA


Outfielders:

Rene Tosoni (LHB, 22, AA) .262/.371/.471 9 HR, 42 RBI, 210 PA
Juan Portes (RHB, 23, AA) .333/.395/.484 2 HR, 22 RBI, 174 PA
Ben Revere (RHB, 21, A+) .322/.391/.384 2 HR, 28 RBI, 27 SB, 276 PA
Joe Benson (RHB, 21, A+) .293/.413/.444 3 HR, 14 RBI, 121 PA

1st basemen/DH:

Whit Robbins (LHB, 24, AA) .315/.390/.483, 7 HR, 29 RBI, 264 PA
Kevin Sylvania (LHB, 18, Rk/DSL) .283/.371/.483 2 HR, 12 RBI, 70 PA

RH Starters:

Anthony Swarzak (23, AAA) 2.48 ERA, 1.172 WHIP, 5.90 K/9, 2.71 K/BB
Carlos Gutierrez (22, A+, AA) 2.37 ERA, 1.239 WHIP, 5.50 K/9, 1.91 K/BB
Matt Fox (26, AA) 2.80 ERA, 1.297 WHIP, 6.81 K/9, 2.07 K/BB
Jeff Manship (24, AA) 4.30 ERA, 1.221 WHIP, 5.38 K/9, 2.25 K/BB
Mike McCardell (24, A+) 3.84 ERA, 1.132 WHIP, 7.28 K/9, 3.93 K/BB
Dave Bromberg (21, A+) 2.22 ERA, 1.246 WHIP, 8.09 K/9, 1.88 K/BB
Brad Tippett (21, A) 3.17 ERA, 1.071 WHIP, 7.71 K/9, 5.09 K/BB
Danny Berlind (21, A) 4.01 ERA, 1.200 WHIP, 8.83 K/9, 2.70 K/BB
Pedro Guerra(19, Rk/DSL) 0.00 ERA, 0.632 WHIP, 11.37 K/9, 6.00 K/BB
Cesar Ciurcina (18, Rk/DSL) 1.38 ERA, 0.615 WHIP, 6.28 K/9, 18.00 K/BB
Renzo Reverol (18, Rk/DSL) 2.11 ERA, 0.703 WHIP, 7.59 K/9, 9.00 K/BB

RH Relievers:

Juan Morillo (25, AAA) 3.14 ERA, 1.221 WHIP, 12.60 K/9, 2.22 K/BB
Armado Gabino (25, AAA) 3.05 ERA, 1.015 WHIP, 6.70 K/9, 2.36 K/BB
Rob Delaney (24, AA,AAA) 3.12 ERA, 1.082 WHIP, 9.18 K/9, 5.00 K/BB
Yohan Pino (25, AA) 3.92 ERA, 1.234 WHIP, 9.36 K/9, 3.91 K/BB
Alex Burnett (21, A+, AA) 1.64 ERA, 0.939 WHIP, 8.92 K/9, 3.17 K/BB
Steve Hirschfield (23, A+) 1.50 ERA, 0.976 WHIP, 6.21 K/9, 2.23 K/BB
Blair Erickson (24, A+) 2.82 ERA, 1.299 WHIP, 12.09 K/9, 3.00 K/BB
Loek Van Mil (24, A+) 0.69 ERA, 1.077 WHIP, 6.92 K/9, 1.43 K/BB
Fransisco Nunez (17, Rk/DSL) 1.96 ERA, 0.982 WHIP, 11.29 K/9, 7.67 K/BB
Carlos Carillo (19, Rk/DSL) 1.08 ERA, 1.200 WHIP, 6.50 K/9, 1.78 K/BB

LH Relievers:

Spencer Steedley (24, A+) 1.06 ERA, 1.059 WHIP, 8.74 K/9, 3.30 K/BB
Joe Testa (23, A) 2.58 ERA, 1.051 WHIP, 12.51 K/9, 2.74 K/BB
Mike Tarsi (22, A) 1.69 ERA, 1.063 WHIP, 9.00 K/9, 2.91 K/BB

One name that is not mentioned is Anthony Slama. The reason I am not including him here is because his WHIP is still high (1.330; my cutoff is <1.300). His ERA is 2.58, he has 12.91 K/9 and 2.89 K/BB)

Has the Twins' pitching improved? (Or why ERA and WHIP tell only part of the story)

The general consensus among Twins' fans, media and organizational personnel has been that the past 2 months the pitching (both the rotation and the bullpen) have been inconsistent and recently improved greatly. Let's see how numbers support this empirical observation.

Here is the Twins' starters and reliever's ERA month by month:



Here is the Twins' starters and reliever's WHIP month by month:



This looks a bit surprising. Yes the starters were pretty bad in April and May, but it looks, using traditional measurements, that the pen had turned the corner in May before becoming really good in June. Sub 3.50 ERA and WHIP around 1.250 is pretty good? Isn't it? That surely conflicts with the empirical observation that the pen was not that great in May. Who is to believe? Your eyes or the numbers? That bullpen surely surrendered leads in May.

As I explained last November there are just not many good measurements to describe and evaluate the state of pitching, and this is why I created the "Pitching Efficiency" measurement (PE= (K/9*K/BB)/WHIP).

Here is the Twins' starters and reliever's PE month by month:



I would argue that looking at PE, supports the empirical opinion that:

The Bullpen was pretty bad both in April and May

The pen was worse overall than the rotation

They both have turned the corner in July

The 2008 MLB average PE for starters was 9.19 and for relievers 10.89. So the rotation has been pretty average as a unit but the pen below average. The July numbers are phenomenal: 21.45 for the rotation and 28.57 for the bullpen. To give some points of reference, in 2008 Roy Oswalt had a PE of 21.19 and Brad Lidge a PE of 25.61. Not bad.

The next plot would try to kill two birds with one stone: Why are the pen ERA and WHIP in April so misleading and is July sustainable? ERA is not a great measure of pitching ability, but one would think that WHIP will be able to describe what is going one pretty well. Apparently not so and here is the reason:

Here is the Twins' starters and reliever's BABIP month by month:



BABIP is batting average on balls in play (excludes home runs, HBP, K and BB). It should normalize at about .290 to .300. In April the Twins pitchers had a higher than normal BABIP (reflected in the higher that expected WHIP) and in May a lower than normal BABIP (reflected in the lower than expected WHIP).

The good news is that both the rotation and pen BABIP have been stable at close to normal levels so I expect the success to continue. One might argue that Swarzak was a big part of this change in June. However, looking at individual PEs Swarzak's year to day is 7.94 and Perkins' (excluding last nights game) 8.22, thus, I suspect that it will not matter that much.

Whose numbers are inflated and whose are deflated based on PE? Here are the individual PEs (ranked high to low) for the Twins pitchers:

Starters

Baker: 34.47
Slowey: 30.80
Liriano: 9.32
Perkins: 8.23
Swarzak: 7.94
Blackburn: 4.61

Relievers

Nathan: 54.79
Guerrier: 26.57
Henn: 14.46
Ayala: 13.41
Dickey: 7.84
Mijares: 7.81
Breslow: 4.50
Crain: 3.70


Surprised? Baker is close to breaking through (and his last 2-3 starts indicate that) and Blackburn is living on the edge by giving too many hits, walking more batters than usual and striking out fewer than usual. Also, Mijares, mainly because his occasional lack of command that results to a high numbers of walks (the same problem that Breslow and Crain had, but in lesser degree than those two), might be walking on thin ice. On the other hand, Guerrier has been exceptional, Henn surprising and Ayala has been pitching better than his "traditional numbers" indicate.

Meet and greet: Derek McCallum, Tobias Streich and Trayvon Johnson

The Twins have signed 3 of their draft picks: their 4th round pick, Derek McCallum, their 5th round pick, Tobias Streich and their 20th round pick, Trayvon Johnson. As I promised, I will be doing profiles of the drafted players as soon as the sign, so this is the first in the series.

Derek McCallum was selected with the Twins' 4th round pick out of the University of Minnesota. This is the second time the Twins' drafted McCallum, as he was drafted as a short stop with their 50th round pick out of Hill-Murray High School(Shoreview, MN) in the 2006 draft. He was a hockey and baseball star in High School, named All-State and All-Conference in 2005 and 2006 for baseball and lettering 4 years in hockey. He is listed at 6'0" and 190 lbs, bats left handed and throws right handed. This season, his junior season, Derek hit .409/.484/.741 with 18 HR and 86 RBI, had 30 BB and 34 K and 6 SB; in 271 plate appearances. His 86 RBI were a school record. Previously known as a contact hitter finishing his sophomore year hitting .340/.379/.444 with 2 HR (161 PA) and his freshman year hitting .291/.352/.398 with 3 HR (233 PA). This season, in addition to increasing his already good ability for contact and eye, he developed considerable power. Here is a scouting video of Derek McCallum. He played shortstop in high school and his first 2 years of college and second base last season, and I suspect that he will man both of those positions in the pros, as it is usually the case in the Twins' system for lower minor league players. La Velle Neal III and Joel Rippel reported that he will probably be assigned to the Elizabethton Twins (Appalachian league; high rookie) that open their season later this month.



Tobias Streich (pronounced: strike) was selected with the Twins' 5th round pick. Even he was surprised to be selected that high. Previously he was selected in the 29th round of the 2007 draft by the Oakland Athletics out of Johnsonburg (PA) High, but declined to sign and entered West Virginia University, where currently is a sophomore where he was a Big East Academic All-Star and member of the Athletic Director’s Academic Honor Roll. Out of high school he was listed at number 32 in the 2007 Baseball America top 300 high school prospects. Tobias is a catcher, listed at 6'0" and 215 lbs and bats and throws right handed. He is a great defensive catcher, who threw out close to 30% of the would be base stealers each of his 2 years in College. He is also very durable. He started 54 out of 56 games him freshman year and 53 out of his 55 in his just-finished sophomore year. His numbers with the bat are not spectacular, but are solid. In his sophomore season he hit .322/.371/.488 with 6 HR and 57 RBI in 221 PA, improving from his .259/.320/.408, 4 HR, 39 RBI (225 PA) freshman season. I suspect that the Elizabethton Twins are a likely destination, however, since the Twins have several young unassigned catchers, including the Dominican 19 year old phenom Josmil Pinto, he could start with the low Rookie Gulf Coast Twins.



Trayvon Johnson the Twins' 20th round pick is somewhat of an enigma. He was selected as a Catcher by the Philadelphia Philies with their 46th round pick of the 2006 draft out of Community Harvest Charter School in Los Angeles, CA, but did not sign. Trayvon did not play high school ball (Community Harvest does not have a baseball team), but played in the MLB Urban Youth Academy in Compton, CA. The following academic year he entered Los Angeles City College. After his freshman season in LACC (in which the team won only 2 of 40 games), his aunt died and he stopped attending College and playing organized baseball, but still was working out at the MLB Urban Youth Academy in Compton. According to La Velle Neal III, Deron Johnson (unrelated to Trayvon) the Twins' director of scouting, said that it was there where the Twins area scout saw Trayvon play and recommended his draft. According to Deron Johnson, he "has a well above average arm and is a strong kid. He can really throw". He is listed at 6'1" and 215 lbs. He hits and throws right handed. I could not find any stats for Trayvon. It is very likely that Trayvon Johnson will play with the low Rookie Gulf Coast Twins or even remain in the Ft. Myers' complex in the Instructional League.



Congratulations and welcome to the three newest members of the Minnesota Twins' family.

The Ballad of Jesse Crain: Is he injured?

Jesse Crain has probably been the most disappointing pitcher in the Twins' bullpen. After an excellent performance in Spring Training, both with the Twins and Team Canada, armed with a new hard breaking curve ball, the expectations were extremely high for Jesse. However, he has been very inconsistent, to say the least, and his newest feat was to lose last aftenoon's game in Wrigley Field on the bottom of the night.

Is there anything obviously wrong with Jesse Crain, which might result in his lack-luster performance?

Ron Gardenhire, after yesterday's game said that "Crain got too many pitches up in the strike zone"

Let's examine that statement, because it might be as good a clue as everything about Jesse Crain. The following images are created using pitchF/X data at Brooksbaseball.net.

Here is how Jesse attacked the strike zone yesterday:



Let's compare that to how Joe Nathan attacked the strike zone the previous day:



So it seems that Gardenhire was correct up to a point, but not entirely accurate. If we compare Nathan's attack with Crain's, we see that the accurately described difference is that Crain left too many balls in (not up) the strike zone. So it seems that if Crain wants to be successful he should pitch outside the zone appropriately.

Let's look at an earlier successful outing by Jesse and the way he was attacking the strike zone. This image is from the 4/14 game this season against Toronto where he pitched 2 innings of ho hit ball, did not walk anyone and struck out 2 batters:



Much better. Several balls close but out of the strike zone, balls up and down the strike zone. This indicates more movement and life in his stuff.

So, what's the difference? To make long things sort, it is his release point, which at a critical time for him this year, moved. Let's look at Jesse's release point evolution from last last season to now.

This is from the last game of the 2008 season against Kansas City. Jesse pitched an inning, gave up one single and struck out two. (There is a line drawn at the 0 horizontal mark for reference in all these figures) :



as you see his arm comes dead center at the zero width release point.

Fast forward to his successful April 14 game against Toronto:



not much difference. In this game, Jesse got the win by pitching 2 hitless innings, striking out 2 batters. He threw 28 pitches in total.

The next game he was used, was two days later on April 16th, to finish a blow out the Twins lost to Toronto 2-9. He threw 11 pitches and had an 1-2-3 inning with one strikeout. Here is his release point from that game:



As you can see something happened between the 28 pitch effort 2 days previously and this game. His release point moves significantly to the left (from the batter's perspective.)

His next game was the first real disappointing game this season for Jesse and the one that ultimately drove him to the 15-day DL. It happened the next day (April 17th) against Anaheim. In this game Crain threw 30 pitches, getting only one out, had three walks, two hits and was credited with 4 earned runs. Here is his release point:



As you can see it is getting worse by the game. After the game, Crain was placed in the 15-day DL with a sore shoulder. Just by looking at the release point changes (and it is harder to throw overhead with shoulder issues) I would argue that the injury occurred sometime before (or during) the second Toronto game.

Crain came of the DL and his next game was a May 5th game at Detroit. Here is his release point from that game:



Not good.

Fast-forwarding to yesterday's game; here is his release point:



Wow. Huge difference between this game and the pre-DL Crain this season. He favors his shoulder even more than when he was placed in the DL earlier this season. I wonder whether his shoulder has issues, based on those release point differences. Remember, this is his surgically repaired shoulder. I hope that Jesse is ok, but it would be worth while for the Twins to have a look at his shoulder. I would not be surprised if he lands in the DL some time soon...

Please make your comments to my section 220 guest post here

Howard Sinker of the Minneapolis Star Tribune asked me to be a guest writer in his "A Fan's View from Section 220" blog at the strib. My post appeared there today. Since Howard has disabled comments for that post on his blog, feel free to use this space for commenting to my post there so dialogue can be established.

Housekeeping Notes:

• Comments open a new window



• There is not a filter or moderation here (i.e. your comments will appear immediately), but if you are nasty (i.e. write something that you would not want your 10 year old son/daughter/niece/nephew/sibling/grandchild to read), I reserve the right to delete it (believe it or not, kids read this space)



• Shoot away!

Extending Joe Mauer: looking at the financial context

An extension to Joe Mauer, who is scheduled to become a free agent after the 2010 season is deemed a priority for this team. However, the Twins have other players as well who will demand salary raises at this point, because there are arbitration-eligible. Here is a list of the arbitration-eligible and free agents (in parenthesis the money that would be freed by not re-signing them) for the Minnesota Twins after the 2009 and 2010 seasons. With trading season ahead, this might be a core of players around whom the Twins will look to build a trade.

After the 2009 season:

Free Agents:

Luis Ayala ($1.3M+)
Joe Crede ($2.3M+)
Mike Redmond ($950K)

Arbitration Eligible:

Boof Bonser
Jesse Crain
Carlos Gomez (super 2)
Matt Guerrier
Fransisco Liriano
Pat Neshek
Brendan Harris
Glen Perkins (super 2)
Delmon Young


After the 2010 season:

Free Agents:

Jesse Crain ($1.7M+)
Mike Cuddyer (team option) ($9.4M)
Matt Guerrier ($1.5M+)
Jason Kubel (team option) ($4.1M)
Joe Mauer
Nick Punto (team option) ($4M)

Arbitration Eligible:

Nick Blackburn
Boof Bonser
Brian Buscher
Alexi Casilla
Carlos Gomez
Fransisco Liriano
Pat Neshek
Brendan Harris
Glen Perkins
Kevin Slowey
Matt Tolbert
Delmon Young

Additional money that will come off the payroll after the 2009 season is the $2.6M the Twins are paying Mike Lamb. Furthermore, Phillip Humber is paid $1.15M this season (thanks to a major league contract signed by the Mets). Releasing him will alleviate that cost

The source of most information for his was Cot's Baseball Contracts.

Reaching for new heights?

The tallest pitchers on the Twins' 40 man roster are standing at 6'4" (Baker, Blackburn, Henn, Nathan, Swarzak).

In this draft the Twins drafted:

3 pitchers 6'4" tall (Stillings, Stilson, Zylstra)
4 pitchers 6'5" tall (Encinosa, Light, Sadler, Butler)
4 pitchers 6'6" tall (Gibson, Bullock, Watts, Giovenco)
1 pitcher 6'7" tall (Bryant)
1 pitcher 6'8" tall (Tyler)

Given that a few of the pitchers drafter are very hard throwers (98,99 mph fastballs) is this a signal of a change of Philosophy of the organization as far as pitching goes? Time will tell

MLB Draft Live Coverage - Day II: rounds 31-50

Note: This page will get updated as picks are made. Also will get updated with links to player profiles and information, so make sure you refresh it to get the new information

The draft starts at 11:30 AM EDT and the Twins will probably pick a bit before noon EDT. Actually it is going much faster. Made their pick at 11:37

Here are the Twins' picks in rounds 31-50 (pick number in parenthesis) :

Round:

31 (942): Cody Martin, 3B/SS/RHP, LHB, 6'2". 205 lbs, Stevens County HS, GA. One of his claims to fame is that as a pitcher he hit an umpire (video link). Here a brief SI writeup of the incident when he was awarded their turkey of the year award and here is a newspaper article.

32 (972): Aaron Senne, RF, LHB, 6'2", 205 lbs, Junior, Missouri (from Rochester, MN). Here is a batting video and here is an article about this former Minnesota State Player of the Year

33 (1002): (Frank) Nick Freitas CF, RHB, 6'1", 215 lbs, senior, Southern Utah. Power hitter Broke his team's home run record. Here is an interview from scout.com

34 (1032): Ricky Claudio, RHP, 6'2", 195. American Senior HS, FL. Here is a brief scouting report (last paragraph). Ricky has a blog and apparently his favorite team is the Boston Red Sox. I hope this changes now.

35 (1062): David Hurlbut, LHP, 6'4", 190 lbs, Diablo Valley College

36 (1092): Jason Zylstra RHP, 6'4" Jacksonville State (same school as Ben Tootle the Twins' third round pick)

37 (1122): David Gutierrez, RHP, 6'0", 160 lbs, Miami. Carlos Gutierrez' brother

38 (1162): Peter Kennelly, RHP, 6'2", 190 lbs, Senior, Fordham

39 (1192): Ryan Sadler, RHP, 6'5" 210 lbs, Naples HS, FL. Here is an article

40 (1222): Ryan Abrahamson, OF, RHB, 6'3", 200 lbs, Tartan HS, MN Here and here are two articles

41 (1252): Pat Butler, RHP, 6'5", 200 lbs Chatham HS, NJ. here is an article

42 (1282): Marc Bourgeois, OF, LHB, 5'11", 205 lbs, Chipola Junior college

43 (1312): Jon Hedges, 1B, RHB, 6'5" 230 lbs, Olney Central College Here is an article

44 (1342): Tyler Herr, RHP, 6'8", 215 lbs, Katy TX HS

45 (1372): Eddie Ahorrio, RHP, Puerto Rico, HS Here is a scouting video

46 (1402): Jake Kretzer, OF, RHB, 5'11", 205 lbs, Benton, HS, MO

47 (1432): Richard Calcano, RHP, Puerto Rico, HS Here is a scouting video

48 (1462): Cody Dordan, RHP, 6'2", 180lbs, Newport HS, OR

49 (1492): Paul-Michael Klingsberg, 1B, LHB, 6'4", 215 lbs, Cal State Domingos Hills

50 (1522): Alberto Cardenas, RHP, 5'10", 190 lbs, Palm Ridge HS, FL

MLB Draft Live Coverage - Day II: rounds 4-30

Note: This page will get update as picks are made. Also will get updated with links to player profiles and information, so make sure you refresh it to get the new information

Here are the Twins' picks in rounds 4-30 (pick number in parenthesis) :

Round:

4 (132): Derek McCallum. RHB, SS/2Bm 6'0", 175 lbs, Junior, University of Minnesota. Here is a scouting video
and here is an article. He was drafted by the Twins in the 50th round of the 2006 draft but did not sign. Here is an article from Pioneer Press and here are his reactions after he was selected by the Twins.

5 (162): Tobias Streich, C, 6'0", 215, RHB, Sophomore, West Virginia U. Here and here are two articles. Here is his reaction after he was selected by the Twins.

6 (192): Chris Herrmann, C/3B, LHB, 6'1", 185 lbs, Junior. U of Miami. Here is a scouting video and here is his personal google profile page, if interested to read some tidbits about him. Here is his-post selection profile from U Miami.

7 (222): Brad Stillings, RHP, 6'4", 210 lbs, Junior, Kent State. Here is an article and here a scouting video. Stillings threw a no-hitter this season

8 (252): Brian Dozier, SS, RHB, 5'11", 190 lbs, Senior, U Southern Miss. Here are his numbers and here is an article.

9 (282): Nick Lockwood, SS, RHB, 5'11", 175 lbs, Jesuit HS, FL. Here is an article.

10 (312): (Michael) Blake Dean, LF/DH, LHB, 6'2", 208 lbs, Junior, LSU. Here is a scouting video and here a page of videos including several of long home runs and here are his numbers.

11 (342): Ronnie Richardson, SH, CF/INF, 5'7", 171 lbs. Lake Region, HS, FL. Here is a detailed scouting report and here a scouting video. Also plays football as a wide receiver

12 (372): Tony Davis, LHP, 5'9", 185 lbs, U Florida

13 (402): Clarence Davis, RHB, SS, 5'11", 160 lbs. Campbell HS, GA

14 (432): Matt Tone, LHP, 6'1", 210 lbs, Junior, SUNY Cortland. Here is an article

15(462): Steven Liddle, OF, LHB, 6'1", 200 lbs, Sophomore. Vanderbilt. Nephew of the Twins' bench coach, Steve Liddle. Here is a video interview, here and here are two articles

16 (492): Dakota Watts, RHP, 6'6", 205 lbs, junior, Cal State Stanislaus

17 (522): Nick Tindall, C, RHB, 6'4", 190 lbs, O' Fallon HS, IL. Here is an article

18 (552): Beau Stoker, SS/3B, LHB, 6'1", 200 lbs, Bishop-Ward HS, KS. Also a Reliever and starting QB and PK in football

19 (582): John Stilson, RHP, 6'4", 190 lbs, Texarcana CC Here is a scouting video

20 (612): Thommy Mackoul, LHP, 6'3", 205, Shophomore UC Riverside. Reliever

21 (642): Kane Holbrooks, RHP, 6'3", 220 lbs, Senior, Texas State

22 (672): Buddy (Stewart) Munroe, C, RHB, 5'11", 195 lbs, Senior, U Florida. Here is a scouting video

23 (702): Eduardo Encinosa, RHP, 6'5", 225 lbs Miami HS. Here is a scouting video

24 (732): Mario Hollands LHP, 6'5", 200 lbs, UC Santa Barbara. Here is a scouting video

25 (762): Anthony Bryant, RHP, 6'7", 210 lbs, Kennewick HS, WA

26 (792): Mike Giovenco, RHP, 6'6", 235 lbs, Junior, North Park U Here is a scouting video

27 (822): Eric Decker, CF, LHB, 6'3", 215 lbs, Junior, Univerity of MN. Probably will return to the U as a senior because he is a top wide receiver update Decker has been quoted (closer to the end of this article) today that he wants to go back to college before he decides his future

28 (852): Pat Light, RHP, 6'5", 190, Christian Brothers Academy, NJ Here is an article

29 (882): (James) Beau Wright, LHP, 6'2", 220 lbs, Los Alamitos HS, CA Here is a scouting video. He had a scare on the field last season from which he recovered.

30 (912): Treyvone Johnson, C, RHB, 6'1", 215 lbs, Los Angeles

I will be doing this again tomorrow starting at 11:30 EDT, covering picks from rounds 31-50.

MLB Draft Coverage - Day I: rounds 1-3

Note: This page will get update as picks are made. Also will get updated with links to player profiles, so make sure you refresh it to get the new information

Here are the Twins' picks in the first three Rounds:

Round 1:

#22: Kyle Gibson, RHP, Missouri. 6'6", 210 lbs, Junior. Here is his scouting report and a video from mlb.com and here is John Manuel's take from Baseball America. Also, here is a scouting report from Saber Scouting with an additional video. Here is a scouting report from Project Prospect, and here is another from The College Baseball Blog. Here is a page full of videos of Kyle Gibson.

Round 1 supplementary (compensation round; the Twins got that pick because of Dennis Reyes singing as a free agent with another team) :

#46: Matt Bashore, LHP, Indiana. 6'3", 200 lbs, Junior. Here are his numbers, here is a quick report, here is an article by Sporting News and here is a scouting video from mlb.com. He was named as one of the top 3 Big Ten starting pitchers by College Baseball Insider.

Round 2:

#70: Billy Bullock, RHP, U Florida. 6'6", 225 lbs, Junior. Here are his numbers and here is an article from The Gainsville Sun.

Round 3:

#101: Ben Tootle, RHP, Jacksonvile State. Here is a scouting report and video from MLB.com and here is an article and here is another one. He was the ninth best college pitcher available according to the College Baseball Blog.

MLB Draft coverage here

The MLB draft starts tonight at 6:00 PM EDT with the first three rounds, continues tomorrow at noon EDT with rounds 4-30 and concludes on Thursday starting at 11:00 AM EDT with rounds 31-50.

This is the way I am planning on covering the draft here:

• Have a close to live daily list of the Twins' picks each day of the draft, which will be updated as additional players are drafted and will provide links to high level profiles of the players (I want to get those out as soon as the names are called, so there will be a lot of editing going on: adding picks as they are made, and editing to include the profiles as time permits. Make sure that you refresh to get the additional information.


• After the draft is finalized, probably around Friday or during the weekend, I will provide an aggregated list of all picks by the Twins, with links to as much information as I can find, including stats, scouting reports, interviews, video etc.


• As players sign, I will profile them individually. Since about half of the picks will never sign and will not wear a Twins-affiliate uniform, I will wait till they sign before I profile them. The deadline for signing draftees is August 17th, so these profiles will be coming sporadically as draftees are signed.

Please feel free to comment in all posts

Who is hot in the minors V4

This is the fourth version of the list of the best performing players in the Twins' minor league system year to date. A reminder that several players are still in extended spring training since the Elizabethton (Appalachian League) and the Gulf Coast League rookie teams have not started their seasons yet. The numbers are as of 5/25. Some players have dropped from the list either because their performance dropped or because they were promoted (Swarzak, Henn). This version includes players from the DLS (minimum 15 PA for position players or appearing in 2 games from pitchers) :

Infielders:

Brian Dinkelman (LHB, 25, AA) .330/.421/.476 3 HR, 32 RBI, 221 PA
Danny Valencia (RHB, 24, AA) .284/.391/.503 6 HR, 26 RBI, 202 PA
Ramon Santana (RHB, 24, A) .360/.444/.576 5 HR, 22 RBI, 145 PA

(Tolleson is .400/.514/.633 in 36 PA at Rochester, but still has some catching up to do due to his slow start at New Britain)

Outfielders:

Rene Tosoni (LHB, 22, AA) .272/.371/.497 8 HR, 32 RBI, 203 PA
Ben Revere (RHB, 21, A) .327/.391/.381 1 HR, 23 RBI, 24 SB, 225 PA
Joe Benson (RHB, 21, A+) .293/.413/.444 3 HR, 14 RBI, 121 PA

1st basemen/DH:

Whit Robbins (LHB, 24, AA) .337/.412/.538, 7 HR, 29 RBI, 211 PA
Rene Leveret (RHB, 23, A+) .336/.430/.448 2 HR, 21 RBI, 135 PA

RH Starters:

Carlos Gutierrez (22, A+, AA) 1.97 ERA, 1.146 WHIP, 5.46 K/9, 1.50 K/BB
Matt Fox (26, AA) 2.83 ERA, 1.291 WHIP, 7.06 K/9, 1.96 K/BB
Mike McCardell (24, A+) 3.75 ERA, 1.059 WHIP, 7.22 K/9, 4.55 K/BB
Brad Tippett (21, A) 3.21 ERA, 1.106 WHIP, 6.29 K/9, 4.10 K/BB
Pedro Guerra(19, Rk/DSL) 0.00 ERA, 0.444 WHIP, 11.00 K/9, inf K/BB
Cesar Ciurcina (18, Rk/DSL) 0.00 ERA, 0.429 WHIP, 2.57 K/9, inf K/BB
Manuel Soliman (19, Rk/DSL) 0.00 ERA, 1.000 WHIP, 6.43 K/9, 1.00 K/BB

RH Relievers:

Armado Gabino (25, AAA) 3.18 ERA, 1.059 WHIP, 5.82 K/9, 1.83 K/BB
Bob Keppel (27, AAA) 2.40 ERA, 1.185 WHIP, 4.14 K/9, 1.58 K/BB
Rob Delaney (24, AA,AAA) 2.77 ERA, 1.103 WHIP, 9.69 K/9, 6.00 K/BB
Alex Burnett (21, A+, AA) 1.98 ERA, 1.024 WHIP, 10.54 K/9, 3.20 K/BB
Steve Hirschfield (23, A+) 1.24 ERA, 0.759 WHIP, 6.52 K/9, 3.50 K/BB
Loek, Van Mil (24, A+) 0.00 ERA, 0.800 WHIP, 5.40 K/9, 3.00 K/BB
Eddy Santana (21, Rk/DSL) 0.00 ERA, 0.500 WHIP, 12.00 K/9, inf K/BB
Fransisco Nunez (17, Rk/DSL) 3.00 ERA, 1.000 WHIP, 12.00 K/9, 8.00 K/BB
Renzo Reverol (18, Rk/DSL) 0.00 ERA, 0.000 WHIP, 6.00 K/9, inf K/BB

LH Relievers:

Spencer Steedley (24, A+) 0.68 ERA, 0.897 WHIP, 8.89 K/9, 3.71 K/BB
Joe Testa (23, A) 1.75 ERA, 1.000 WHIP, 12.00 K/9, 2.82 K/BB

A fashion statement?

By Joe Crede in today's game?




Hard to talk about this series; another loss. 2 games under .500, 5 games behind in the loss column. They almost need to take 4 out of the next 6.

Analyzing Liriano's release point from last night's win.

Fransisco Lirano pitched 6 innings in the Twins' victory against Seattle, in which he allowed only 3 hits, 1 ER, 5 strikeouts, but 4 BB as well. After his previous start, I demonstrated that his release point was all over the place. I wanted to follow his release point closely in yesterday's game and I got inning by inning snapshots of his release point of various pitches, to see if it could tell a better story. The following pitchFX graphs (from Brooksbaseball.net) are graphs of his release point of pitches he threw up and including the indicated inning. Without further ado:

Inning 1 release point:



Fransisco's release point is all over the place again.

Innings 1-2 release point:



You see that a nicer core release point is been established

Innings 1-3 release point:



the core is continuing to be established, few more pitches outside the core

Innings 1-4 release point:



Even nicer core

Innings 1-5 release point:



It really appears that there are two core release points established, one to the left of the other

Innings 1-6 (his whole performance) release point:



The two cores are even more established...

What does that mean? I was really surprised to see two different release points, so I wanted to look more into it, so I looked into release vs lefties and righties to see whether the chirality of the batter he faced made a difference.

Here is his release point against RHB:



nice and tight (well, as far as Liriano goes.) It coincides with the left-most core in the total.

and here is his release point against LHB:



Less tight, but it coincides with the right-most core in the total.

The conclusion here is that Liriano has two different release points. He drops his arm to the right (from batter's view) when he faces lefties and pitches consistently upright when he faces righties. Is this just a coincidence in this game?

Let's look at his splits from that 5/30 game.

Here is his release point against RHB:



decent core to the left with about 3 pitches probably slipping off his fingers



a core more to the right with a few pitches even further away.


Still, the core release points are there, but are not tight. And I am not sure what having 2 different release points does to someone's ability to throw the ball accurately where he wants, but I suspect that it is not good. Let's look at a very good tight core release point.

This is Kevin Slowey's release point from his last game

Total pitches:



Against RHB:



Against LHB:



No difference against LHB and RHB and an extremely tight core. I think that the differences between Slowey's tight release point and Liriano's dual and loose release point translate to their differences in command and control: Slowey rarely walks anyone and has very good command of all his pitches, while Liriano has problems with his command and control. A single consistent release point could go a long way for Fransisco.

Strange Case of Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde: Who really is Scott Baker?

Scott Baker had a career high 10 strikeouts yesterday, in a home game against the Cleveland Indiands; he pitched 7 innings, allowing 2 ER and 6 Hits while walking only 1. He has a no-hitter into the 4th inning. His WHIP is the lowest of all Twins' starters at 1.240 and his ERA almost dropped a whole point after his appearance yesterday. Earlier in the season, Scott Baker was plagued by multi-home run games and even allowed a home run (the first career hit of Chris Gimenez) in the 7th inning.

Is there anything that transforms Scott Baker, the Strikeout Maker to Scott "Home Run" Baker?

Lets start here:

Three weeks ago I indicated that Baker is tipping his pitches by having a higher release point for his breaking stuff that his fastballs and changes. The image I used (PitchFx data from Brooksbaseball.net) was this visualization of Baker's release point on each of his pitches broken down by pitch type from his 5/19 game vs. the Chicago White Sox:



you can see that there is a baseball difference in the height of the release of his breaking stuff (sliders and curves) vs. his fastballs and changeups.

Let's see how he did yesterday through out the game.

Here is Baker's release point on each of his pitches broken down by pitch type yesterday from innings one through five:



Much better. Only two sliders are released higher than the core of his pitches and everything is mixed up. If you look at the height of his release point (Y-axis), Baker did not move the higher breaking release point lower down to match the lower fastball point, but instead, it looks like he is pitching in between, which means that he raised his release point for his fastballs (which are his bread and butter) by standing taller when delivering, and apparently are more effective.

Let's look at his release point through the sixth inning (an additional inning of pitches added to the previous image: )



Still the core is tight with one change up (yellow) additionally thrown from the high release point.

Here is his release point through 7 innings (final for the game) :



Now you see a couple more sliders added to the high release point. When exactly were those high released sliders thrown? Guess when?

Here is Baker's release point during Chris Gimenez's AB in the 7th innning, which resulted to a home run:



Gimenez's home run came on the fastball (green), which was the third pitch of the plate appearance and was released about 7 inches lower that the previous 2 pitches. Since the data was there that Baker tips his pitches and the ball was obvious to the batter that was released from a lower point that the two previous breaking balls, guessing "fastball" was probably easy and right on the mark...

So, it seams that Scott Baker the Strikeout Maker is transformed into Scott "Home Run" Baker, by inconsistent mechanics on his fast ball delivery. It could be fatigue. It could be something obvious to Rich Anderson.

But here is a question that begs to be answered: The pitchfx data isfreely available in the internets and updated by every pitch. Why doesn't the Twins' pitching coach, instead of using a 19th century clicker to keep track of his pitchers, use a laptop to look at pitchFx data? Believe me the pitch count is there. A variation to Baker's release point should be a leading indicator for an upcoming disaster, warranting a visit to the mount and if it continues, replacement. The clicker cannot tell that. This is the 21st century Mr Anderson; welcome to it.

If you want to look at what kind of information is displayed in a pitchfx data page, here is the data from his start yesterday from Brooksbaseball.net. Make sure that you look at the different pull down menus because there is a lot of information there... More than in a clicker...

Fixing Delmon Young

A lot of the posts in this blog have been about analysis of numbers. I know that spreadsheets, graphs, math and statistic can really give people a headache sometimes, so I am departing today from all of these and going back to something I used to love doing when I was a kid: Do you remember in the quiz sections of the newspaper or in the back side of a place mat (the ones you draw on with crayons to keep quiet when waiting for food to come in a diner) the quizzes that had two similar pictures side by size and asked you to find 5 or 10 differences and circle them? This is what this is all about, and Delmon Young.

One of the biggest criticisms of Delmon Young is that Delmon is a singles hitter and will never develop any power. I tried to answer some of this with math and analysis here last month, but let's play this game of looking at pictures and finding differences.

We'll make it more interesting than that: We'll look at pictures of swings by successful hitters and pictures of swings by Delmon to see whether there might be something obvious:

Let's start with the successful hitters:

Some righties:


Kibry Puckett:


Mike Schmidt:


Albert Pujols:


Alex Rodriguez:


Mickey Mantle:


and some lefties:

Mickey Mantle again:


Darryl Strawberry:


Ted Williams:


Joe Mauer:


Here are some Delmon Young swings:







Do you see an obvious difference between Delmon Young's swing and those of the other players'?

Here is some help: Draw an imaginary line from the base of the batter's neck and see where and whether it meets the player's tailbone during the swing.

Here is a visual comparing two of the above swings at the same point of the swing, with that line drawn:



As you can see, Ted Williams' (and all those above players) has his neck aligned with his tailbone, while Delmon's neck is way back aligned with the ground at about his back leg.

This is very unbalanced. One cannot generate any power this way. Actually one would be glad not to fall on his butt after such a swing. This indicates a top body and lower body imbalance and needs to be fixed for Young to be successfully hitting the ball far. (I could also talk about squaring one's shoulders but this is a different story and somewhat controversial)

Do you know who else from the Twins' team swings like this?



(Actually, in addition to Brian Buscher pictured above, Nick Punto and Mike Redmond also swing off-balance, with the known results)

Google images of swings of your favorite players and compare them to Delmon's or watch closely next time players hit (but static images are better, just because swings are too fast)

This is so obvious that Vavra has to do something here. I suspect that he sees that, since it is extremely obvious. If he doesn't (and at least four of his hitters swing like that), does he need to be a hitting coach?

Alternatively, the Twins should get this guy for their hitting coach. (The previous link is for a 15 minute instructional video on swinging by one of the best hitters and now coaches in the game of baseball; highly recommended to everyone who wants to look at the art of hitting. Have a look at it and then next time you watch the Twins have a look at Twins' players at the plate)

What do you think?