The tenth inning stretch

RHP Jeremy Hellickson (Rays)

Free Agent:

LHP Paul Maholm
LHP Johan Santana

RHP Raisel Iglesias (Cuban Defector)

SS Erisbel Arruebarruena (Cuban defector)

LHP Chris Capuano
RHP Bronson Arroyo
RHP Suk-Min Yoon

1/9/14

Full list of the players participating in the 2014 Twins Spring Training

Today the Twins announced the 23 non-roster players who were invited to the 2014 Spring Training. This makes a total of 63 players attending. This is pending any transactions in the following couple of months.

Here are all the players participating in the Twins' Spring Training by position and with the known assigned uniform numbers, with the 40 men roster players in bold:

LHPs

38 Logan Darnell
58 Scott Diamond
52 Brian Duensing
83 Sean Gilmartin
81 Matt Hoffman
60 Edgar Ibarra
53 Kris Johnson
15 Glen Perkins
63 Brooks Raley
56 Caleb Thielbar
64 Aaron Thompson

RHPs

61 Jared Burton
30 Kevin Correia
21 Samuel Deduno
50 Casey Fien
44 Kyle Gibson
76 Deolis Guerra
45 Phil Hughes
65 Trevor May
66 Alex Meyer
47 Ricky Nolasco
48 Lester Oliveros
37 Mike Pelfrey
54 Yohan Pino
57 Ryan Pressly
51 Anthony Swarzak
59 Michael Tonkin
49 Vance Worley

Catchers

26 Eric Fryer
12 Chris Herrmann
73 Kyle Knudson
82 Matt Koch
43 Josmil Pinto
84 Dan Rohlfing
8 Kurt Suzuki
85 Stuart Turner

Infielders

11 Jason Bartlett
77 James Beresford
17 Doug Bernier
55 Chris Colabello
2 Brian Dozier
5 Eduardo Escobar
25 Pedro Florimon
7 Joe Mauer
24 Trevor Plouffe
78 Jorge Polanco
79 Deibinson Romero
72 Miguel Sano
39 Danny Santana
68 Kennys Vargas
71 Brandon Waring

Outfielders

31 Oswaldo Arcia
70 Byron Buxton
32 Aaron Hicks
67 Max Kepler
13 Jason Kubel
19 Darin Mastroianni
80 Jermaine Mitchell
27 Chris Parmelee
1 Alex Presley
62 Chris Rahl
22 Wilkin Ramirez
16 Josh Willingham

1/7/14

Clutch hitting and pitching and the 2013 Twins.

"Clutch" is a word that has been used to describe the players who go above and beyond the norm and perform highly in difficult situations in close games: The guy who comes into the game with 2 outs and the bases loaded, down three in the bottom of the ninth and hits a grand slam off a closer who never blew a save. The pitcher who comes in with bases loaded and no outs, up one on the bottom of the ninth and strikes out the side to save the game. Whether or not there are players out there who are "clutch" and consistently outperform themselves in those type of situations has been a vast subject of debate. Here is a good summary of a few historic studies and here is a list of lots of links on the subject, if you feel like reading more.

About 5 years ago, David Appelman devised a measurement called, well, "Clutch" that tries to describe clutch hitting and pitching. Basically what it does, is it looks at the difference of someone's performance (based on Win Probability Added) in High Leverage situations only, versus his overall performance. Players with positive Clutch outperform their overall performance in those situations and players with negative Clutch underperform. This does not mean that a player with a higher Clutch is a "better" player than one with lower Clutch. If someone hits .220 with the bases loaded and .200 overall, is not a better player than someone who hits .320 with the bases loaded and .340 overall, despite the Clutch numbers.

Fangraphs picked the stat now and I sorted the Twins hitters, relief pitchers and starting pitchers based on Clutch. This is an exercise just for fun. I don't think that it means that much (see example above), but it is interesting and it potentially be an additional tool for player evaluation, but not a stand alone tool. Situational and High Leverage performance definitely might tell something about relievers as a group, but we are not about to jump into any conclusions here. Just a demo :)

Here are the 2013 Twins' hitters ranked by Clutch (60 PA min) :

Here are the 2013 Twins' relief pitchers ranked by Clutch (10 IP min):

Here are the 2013 Twins' starting pitchers ranked by Clutch (35 IP min):

Pitchers in both roles are listed on both tables for that role only. A couple of observations:

The Twins definitely do not use or value the metric, since about half of the players with positive Clutch numbers are gone
I am not surprised to see Dozier and Duensing lead the hitter and the reliever groups respectively. It is my recollection that they really excelled in pressure situations
Worley leading the starter group may be a surprise, until someone considers that, in order to pitch in a high leverage situation, a starter needs to get himself into trouble to make that situation high leverage. Thus, Clutch, is not very useful at all for starters (other than looking at fun results like the above...)

1/6/14

Fantasy Implications from the Signings of the Top 3 Free Agent Hitters

Now that the top three free agent hitters have all been signed to long-term deals, it is time to analyse what type of impact the change in scenery will have on their fantasy baseball numbers. The three left-handed bats (Jacoby Ellsbury, Robinson Cano and Shin-Soo Choo) all want to have career years to justify their contracts, but can they meet expectations?

Ellsbury battled some injuries a season ago, but he was healthy enough to help lead the Boston Red Sox to the World Series. Fantasy baseball owners were still able to enjoy a .298 average from him and 52 stolen bases, but his power disappeared a little bit. That should change a little now that he is playing half of his games in Yankee Stadium. Health is the biggest issue for him here, but if he can stay on the field, his fantasy baseball numbers will be near career highs.

The Yankees were able to pay Ellsbury because they didn’t spend money on second baseman Robinson Cano. After being the main cog in the lineup for New York all last season, he will be switching coasts to play for the Seattle Mariners. A lackluster lineup surrounding him (even after improvements) and a bigger stadium could hurt his power numbers a little bit. Fortunately, Cano is a good enough line drive hitter that his numbers shouldn’t dive too much.

Finally, Choo goes from one good situation to another, as he signed a deal with the Texas Rangers. He put up nice numbers in Cincinnati in 2013, sporting an on-base percentage of .423 and slugging 21 home runs. He won’t have to play centerfield in Arlington, and he gets to hit in a stacked lineup in a hitter friendly ballpark. Expect some of his best career numbers this upcoming season as long as everyone else lives up to expectations. Some should worry slightly about his age and injury history, but he is still a top flight fantasy baseball option.

The chronicle of the shoulder injuries of Twins' RHP Samuel Deduno

Last season, after his World Baseball Classic performance (which ended with a pulled groin that made him miss a chunk of Spring Training and 44 games with the Twins) and his consistent performance in June and July that had him enter August with a 7-4 record and a 3.18 ERA in 12 starts, made many people in the Twins Cities call Samuel Deduno an"Ace".   This included several well-respected mainstream media. (For sample of relative stories, look here, here, here, here and here.)

Not sure whether calling Deduno an "Ace" (which, of course, he never was; being the only pitcher who gives a bad team a semi-consistent change of staying close in a game, an "Ace" does not make) caused a hubris-derived curse, but he was never the same afterwards, because of an injury that caused him to have double (labrum and rotator cuff) shoulder surgery the Fall, making his trip up North breaking camp with the Twins pretty dubious.

When (then interim) General Manager Terry Ryan, returned to that role with the Twins after the 2011 ninety nine loss season he identified several places that needed change in order for the team to improve. In addition of the firing of Jerry White and Rick Stelmaszek, the retirement of Steve Liddle and the "no scholarships" approach about certain players like Tsuyosi Nishioka, and the reassignment of the other remaining coaches, Ryan fired the Twins' head athletic trainer Rick McWane, establishing medical treatment of the players as one of the areas for improvement and part of the cause of the Twins demise in 2011.

How well have those changes worked in 2013? Let's look at the chronicle of Samuel Deduno's shoulder injury, diagnosis and treatment, with stories from last August on as they happened, and let the readers reach their own conclusions:

August 7: Deduno allows 4 runs in 5.7 innings in loss to Royals giving up 12 hits.

August 13: He allows 5 runs in 6 innings in loss to Indians; 5 hits and 3 bases on balls.

August 18: Allows 5 runs in 5 innings. Allows 8 hits. After the game Deduno speaks to the press indicating he has shoulder problems. He said that "It started behind the shoulder a couple weeks ago [August 7] , but I could handle that". "Now it's in the front. I felt it a few days ago [August 13]. Today, I didn't feel good. In the bullpen and during the game, I didn't feel strong."

[In other words, Deduno makes 3 starts with shoulder issues. It is unclear whether he communicated those issues to the training staff]

The Twins' trainers prescribe and Deduno undergoes Electronic Stimulation Therapy (a muscle therapy).

August 19: Consistent with the treatment prescribed, the Twins' training staff diagnose the condition as bicep tendinitis

August 21: Deduno throws bullpen and says he feels fine

August 22: Starts against Cleveland. Allows one run in 6 innings in a win at Cleveland. 3 hits, 4 bases on balls

August 29: Starts against the Royals. Allows 3 runs in 3 innings against the Royals. Out with shoulder soreness.

[In other words, Deduno makes 2 additional starts with apparently unresolved shoulder issues]

August 30: Deduno placed on of the 15-day DL

September 8: Deduno transferred to the 60-day DL

September 9: The Twins' GM talks to the press about Deduno. Saying that he might need shoulder surgery but is "not as bad as it sounds" and could rehab instead. Terry Ryan indicates that Deduno is "battling inflammation" and says that he is "sure that it is scar-tissue related"

September 9 (later in the day): The Twins announce that Deduno has "issues in his labrum and rotator cuff" and might need "just a clean up"

September 13: The Twins indicate that Deduno has "Fraying in the shoulder" recovery timetable is set to two months, should be ready on the onset of Spring Training

September 20: Announcement that Deduno has successful arthroscopic Shoulder Surgery (by his agent) reparing "slight fraying" and "slight tear".

December 9: Twins indicate that Deduno has started to playing catch and his rehab progresses (in Fort Myers) as planned and he is still on schedule for Spring Training.

Meanwhile, Terry Ryan signs three free agent pitchers who, in addition to Correia, are all penciled in ahead of Deduno for the 2014 rotation. Terry Ryan after the season publicly said that "Deduno has pretty much earned a spot on the 2014 rotation", but his actions show that he does not count on Deduno.   Whether he will be ready for Spring Training or not, it will be seen, since there has been pretty much silence on Deduno since September 20.

It has to be noted that Deduno has been very fragile.   Here is his injury and lost days history in his professional career:

Missed 30 days of 2013 with Right Shoulder injury
Missed part of 2013 (ST and 44 days) with Groin injury
Missed 45 days of 2012 with Right Elbow injury
Missed 18 days of 2011 with Groin injury
Missed 111 days of 2010 with Right Elbow injury (inflammation)
Missed 22 days of 2009 with Hip Flexor injury
Missed all of 2008 with Tommy John Surgery recovery
Missed 45 days of 2005 with Right Shoulder injury

The only healthy seasons in Deduno's career were 2006 and 2007. It looks like his Right Shoulder, Groin and Hip, and Right Elbow (and unfortunately even after Tommy John Surgery) have been his problem areas.   The elbow and shoulder issues are especially worrisome...

I hope that Deduno is healthy, because he pitches in an intriguing way and could help the Twins, but if his history is any guide of the future, he is not to be counted on to have the ball every fifth day.

1/3/14

Weekly summary of the Twins moves and targets: 1/3/2014

Happy New Year! Here is the summary of the moves the Minnesota Twins did and the players they expressed interest in this week (the links will take you to reports). As far as "targets" go, I am listing players that the Twins reportedly expressed interest in and not players who baseball writers and other thought that they would be a good fit or may fill a need. The targets identified past weeks are still in the list unless they signed elsewhere. Not any transactions this Holiday week, but some additional interesting targets.

As a reminder, you can see all the Twins' weekly transactions and targets in reverse chronological order here.

Moves:

Trades:

No trades last week

In:

No signings last week

Out:

No signings last week

The current Twins' 40-man roster is here and contains 21 pitchers and 19 position players for a total of 40 spots.

Targets:

Trade:

RHP Jeremy Hellickson (Rays)

Free Agent:

LHP Paul Maholm
LHP Johan Santana

RHP Raisel Iglesias (Cuban Defector)

SS Erisbel Arruebarruena (Cuban defector)

LHP Chris Capuano
RHP Bronson Arroyo
RHP Suk-Min Yoon

1/2/14

My (fictional) 2014 Hall of Fame ballot

Members of the BBWAA had until 12/31 to send in their annual HOF ballots (via fax or snail mail only.) The results will be announced in two days, so I decided to post my fictional ballot. A couple of notes:

I explain this more in depth here, but I believe that entry to the Hall of Fame should be restricted to the very few select players. It is ok to have displays on Jack Morris' game 7, as a great game in baseball and a great appearance, but it is not ok to induct the player, just for this. The same with Mark McGwire and Samy Sosa and their HR title contest. Thus, my cut offs are more stringent than others. The Hall has 306 members, some of the players have an under .700 career OPS. This is not right as far as I can tell.
I am going with performance and not proven or suspected PED use. This witch hunt has to stop. If someone wants a "clean Hall", Hank Aaron should be kicked out, since he publicly admitted to using "greenies" that are now banned from baseball. If someone does not vote for modern PED suspects but wants to keep already enshrined PED users, is a hypocritical position. So is, celebrating Tony LaRussa's induction while not voting for Mark McGwire because of steroid use. Unless LaRussa was blind or absent, he at least knew what was going on in the Canseco/McGwire/Giambi clubhouse.

With those things in mind, my 2014 HOF ballot would have been:

Jeff Bagwell
Barry Bonds
Roger Clemens
Tom Glavine
Glenn Maddux
Mike Mussina
Curt Schiling,

There is a reason that 10 votes is the maximum. It is not the Hall of Very Good.

12/31/13

Happy 2014 and I hope that the Twins pitching staff is like this group

Happy and productive 2014 for everyone and hopefully a World Series Championship in Minnesota!

12/27/13

Separated at Birth: Twins RHP Alex Meyer and ?

By now you have already read the story first published at Indy Star and told by David Woods, about Twins' RHP Alex Meyer spending his off-seasons as a substitute teacher. Here is one of the pictures of Alex Meyer sporting a dress shirt and a tie in this story:

Cannot help it, but Alex in this picture looks like someone's twin:

Weekly summary of the Twins moves and targets: 12/27/2013

Targets:

Trade:

RHP Jeremy Hellickson (Rays)

Free Agent:

OF Justin Turner

1B/3B Mark Reynolds

RHP Matt Guerrier

LHP Paul Maholm
LHP Johan Santana
RHP Matt Guerrier

RHP Raisel Iglesias (Cuban Defector)

SS Erisbel Arruebarruena (Cuban defector)

LHP Chris Capuano
RHP Bronson Arroyo
RHP Suk-Min Yoon

12/25/13

Merry Christmas the Minnesota Twins' way. May all your wishes come true!

I find this video very heartwarming and appropriate for today and wanted to share. Merry Christmas to you all and let us all not forget the less fortunate these days.

12/24/13

By the numbers: a body count of the Twins' pitching depth for 2014 and myth busting

The major priority of the Minnesota Twins' General Manager, Terry Ryan, has been to re-build a rotation that has been at the bottom of the major leagues in pretty much every statistical category in 2014. There is a general agreement that the rotation was pretty much "a mess" in 2013 and needed fixing. There is also the general impression that the Twins' pen was one of the strengths of the team and it is better left alone. However, this impression is false because in 2013 the Twins' pen ranked:

17th out of 30 MLB teams as far as ERA goes
17th out of 30 MLB teams as far as FIP goes
17th out of 30 MLB teams as far as SIERA goes
8th out of 30 MLB teams as far as WHIP goes
19th out of 30 MLB teams as far as K% goes

In other words, the Twins' pen, which compared to the Twins' rotation seemed great, when compared to the rest of the major league pens is proven to be average at best.

Busted myth number one: The Twins' pen was not great in 2013 and, while it might have been a bright point in 2013 compared to the rest of the team, it does not cut the mustard compared to the rest of league.

There is a lot of room for improvement and I suspect that Terry Ryan will address before Spring Training, since that will go a long way for the Twins to be competitive in 2014.

After the recent additions of new and returning starting pitchers there have been arguments that the Twins have too many starting pitchers and there is a logjam or pitchers on the Twins' roster.

I thought that it might be a good time to take a breath and look at what the Twins have on their 40-man roster as far as pitching goes, and see whether this argument is true or not.

Here is the Twins' 40 man roster (alphabetically) broken down in groups (players in bold are out of options):

Group A: Starting pitchers with no options signed to sizeable contracts the last 2 seasons.

Kevin Correia (RHSP)
Phil Hughes (RHSP)
Rick Nolasco (RHSP)
Mike Pelfrey (RHSP)

Group B: Relief pitchers with no options signed to sizeable contracts the last 2 seasons or offered arbitration.

Jared Burton (RHRP)
Brian Duensing (LHSP/RP)
Glen Perkins (LHRP)
Anthony Swarzak (RHSP/RP)

Group C: Starting pitchers with no options with small contacts who played in the majors for more than 3 seasons.

Sam Deduno (RHSP)
Scott Diamond (LHSP)
Vance Worley (RHSP)

Group D: Starting and relief pitchers with options with small contacts who played in the majors for at least one season.

Andrew Albers (LHSP)
Casey Fien (RHRP)
Kyle Gibson (RHSP)
Kris Johnson (LHSP)
Ryan Pressly (RHRP)
Caleb Thielbar (LHRP)
Michael Tonkin (RHRP)

Group E: Starting and relief pitchers with options with small contacts who never played in the majors.

Logan Darnell (LHSP)
Edgar Ibarra (LHRP)
Trevor May (RHSP)

Broken down this way, the perceived logjam of Twins' staring pitchers becomes pretty clear:

The Twins usually have a 12 man pitching staff. They currently have 4 starters and 4 relievers (groups A and B) who are pretty much guaranteed a job. This opens 4 more positions, one in the rotation and 3 in the pen. If you assume that the Twins value all pitchers in Group C who are out of options, they have the space to find them all a major league job, as well as allow another pitcher, likely from Group D or potentially outside the organization, to gain a rotation or bullpen position. The rest of the players will provide depth in AAA and be there in case of emergency or potentially be offered in trades to fill additional needs, like position players.

Busted myth number two: There is no pitching logjam on the Twins' roster.

In other words, the Twins do have a lot of pitching depth in their 40-man roster, but they are not in a logjam situation where they cannot accommodate all their pitchers without options on their 25-man roster. And this assumes that Samuel Deduno who is recuperating from double (labrum and rotation cuff) shoulder surgery is available to start the season, which is an extremely optimistic approach right now.

While it is too early to name names to complete the rotation and the pen, because changes will likely happen before spring training, this early clearly the Twins are not in any sort of a pitching logjam and also have plenty of options.

12/22/13

Video Interview with Chris Colabello

According to recent reports the Minnesota Twins have explored selling Chris Colabello's rights to at least two Korean Baseball teams, one of which offered Colabello a contract close to $1 million dollars. A player has the option to accept or refuse the transaction and, according to the same reports, Colabello refused. Here is a very in-depth interview of Chris Colabello right after the WBC last March with Dani Wexelman. This interview is close to 19 minutes long and might shed some light on Chris' decision to stay (for less and potentially much less, if he does not make the team, money) and fight for a spot on the Twins team.

12/20/13

Profile of the newest Minnesota Twin: C Kurt Suzuki

It has been reported that the Minnesota Twins have Signed 30 year old C Kurt Suzuki to an 1 year $2.75 million contract plus incentives. Suzuki, who made $6.5 million last season, will provide catching depth, allowing the Twins to pace the use of Josmil Pinto and Chris Herrmann at the catcher position in a way that it is most appropriate for them.   He would also act as insurance, in case one or both of the rookies need additional work at AAA.   The Twins would need to create a spot on the 40-man roster for Suzuki, which likely means that 28 year old Eric Fryer, who was slated for this role now filled by Suzuki, will be taken off the 40-man roster and designated for assignement.

The 5'11", 200 lbs, Suzuki, who is from Hawaii, was drafted by the Oakland Athletics in the 2nd round of the 2004 MLB June Amateur Draft from California State University Fullerton. He flew threw the Athletics system at a pace of a level a year starting as a 20 year old in short season A Vancouver and ended up starting 2007 in AAA Sacramento. Baseball America had him ranked as the 89th best prospect in Baseball before that season. Mid-season 2007 he made his debut with the Athletics where he stayed until the 2012 trading deadline when he was traded to the Washington Nationals. He returned to the Athletics, traded back by the Nationals this trading deadline, to support thens in their post-season run in 2013.

His career slash line is .253/.309/.375 (.685 OPS, 86 OPS+). The right hand hitter seem to be consistently declining with the bat since his age 25, 2010 season when he hit .274/.313/.421 (.734 OPS, 93 OPS+) .   Last season between the Nationals and the Athletics he hit .232/.290/.337 (.627 OPS, 73 OPS+) in 94 games (316 PAs), which is what the Twins should probably be expecting from him (in fewer PAs) in 2014 and his $2.75 million one year contract reflects this.   He is a right hand hitter but hits both lefties and righties equally.

Suzuki does not walk a lot, but he does not strike out a lot either (about 8% BB rate and 10% K rate). He makes contact, but does not have much power. He is a good bunter and can move runners on; also suited for hit and run plays. Suzuki's defense behind the plate, his ability to block balls in the dirt, to make hard plays and to stall runners has been praised.   So has his clubhouse presence. So has his game calling by managers and his pitchers. He has been extremely healthy spending only 24 days in the 15-day DL in his career for an intercostal muscle strain in 2010. Even if he might not be able to contribute with the bat as a starter, he would be an invaluable mentor for both Pinto and Herrmann.   All in all a great addition for the Twins.

Weekly summary of the Twins moves and targets: 12/20/2013

Here is the summary of the moves the Minnesota Twins did and the players they expressed interest in this week (the links will take you to reports). As far as "targets" go, I am listing players that the Twins reportedly expressed interest in and not players who baseball writers and other thought that they would be a good fit or may fill a need. The targets identified past weeks are still in the list unless they signed elsewhere.

As a reminder, you can see all the Twins' weekly transactions and targets in reverse chronological order here.

Moves:

Trades:

Traded OF/DH Ryan Doumit to the Atlanta Braves for Minor League LHP Sean Gilmartin who was invited to Spring Training (12/18)

In:

Signed RHP Yohan Pino to a Minor League contact

Signed RHP Mike Pelfrey to a two year, $11 million contract with additional $3.5 million in incentives (12/14)

Signed OF Jason Kubel to a split contract: The Minor League portion would be $15,000 a month. If he makes the MLB team he will receive a base of $2M with $150K for reaching each of 300 and 350 PAs, $200K for reaching 400 PAs, $150K each for spending 30 and 60 days and $200K for spending 90 days on the 25 man roster. Additionally he will receive $100K each for being named the World Series or the AL MVP and $25K for making the All-Star team or winning a gold glove. (12/13)

Out:

RHP Liam Hendriks was claimed off waivers by the Chicago Cubs (12/13)

The current Twins' 40-man roster is here and contains 21 pitchers (if you include Pelfrey, which is not yet official) and 19 position players for a total of 40 spots.

Targets:

Trade:

RHP Jeremy Hellickson (Rays)

Free Agent:

1B/3B Mark Reynolds

RHP Matt Guerrier

LHP Paul Maholm
C Kurt Suzuki
LHP Johan Santana
RHP Matt Guerrier

RHP Raisel Iglesias (Cuban Defector)
C John Buck