Profiles of 11th-13th round Twins selections

The Twins selected the following players:

11th Tyler Kuresa 1B, Oakmont HS, CA ; his MLB.com scouting video, another scouting video



12th Steven Maxwell, RHP, 6-1, 190, TCU. His Bio





13th Ryan O'Rourke, LHP 6-3, 217, Merrimack. His Bio

Profile of Twins 10th round MLB draft pick: 2B JaDamion Williams

With their 10th pick the Twins selected 5-11, 183 lbs JaDamion Williams 2b, from Brooks-DeBartolo Collegiate HS, FL

here is his MLB.com scouting video, and his profile





Will be taking an 1 hr brake after the 10th pick and return in live blogging afterwards around the 12 pick

Profile of Twins 9th round MLB draft pick: C Kyle Knudson

With their 9th pick the Twins selected C Kyle Knudson from the hometown University of Minnesota.

Defense-first catcher, much like Drew Butera.

His Bio, an interview and a video

Profile of Twins 8th round MLB draft pick: 1B Lance Ray

With their 8th pick the Twins selected 6-1, 194 lbs, 1B Lance Ray from University of Kentucky, teammate of their 6th round pick, Logan Darnell

His Bio,



in 2010 he is hitting .356 with 29 R, 10 HR, 42 RBI, 20 BB and 21 K in 118 AB

Profile of Twins 7th round MLB draft pick: RHP Matthew Hauser

With their 7th pick the Twins selected 6-2, 190 RHP Matt Hauser from University of San Diego.

88-92 fastball with plus movement, good slider, slit finger fastball that he uses as a changeup (like Pavano)

His Bio,

Profile of Twins 6th round MLB draft pick: LHP Logan Darnell

With their 6th pick the Twins selected 6-2, 210 lbs, LHP Logan Darnell from University of Kentucky.



Low 90s fastball with a 94mph peak and a very good curveball.

Here is his MLB.com scouting video, a scouting report, his bio, an article.

In 2010 he is 5-3 with 5.62 ERA in 11 starts. 137.1 IP, 28 BB, 55 K

Profile of Twins 5th round MLB draft pick: RF Nate Roberts

With their 5th round pick the Twins select 6-0, 205 lbs, RF Nate (Nathaniel) Roberts from High Point University.

Here is his MLB.com scouting video and here is his College profile, a short article



in 2010 Nate is hitting .416/.573/.746 with 19 HRs and 69 RBI in 209 AB. He walked 53 times and struck out 35.

Profile of Twins 4th round MLB draft pick: CF Eddie Rosario

With their 4th round pick the Twins select 6-0, 170 lbs CF Eddie Rosario, from Lopez High School, Puerto Rico.

Not much information about Rosario, but the Baseball Draft Report listed him as the 30th best HS prospect and compared him to Bobby Abreu:

"Eddie Rosario could be the most advanced hitter coming off Puerto Rico in years, and has been compared to veteran big league outfielder Bob Abreu, both for his swing an hitting approach"

Here is his MLB.com scouting video

Profile of Twins 3rd round MLB draft pick: Pat Dean

With their 3rd round pick, the Twins select 6-1, 175 LHP Pat Dean from Boston College.

Fastball between 88-90 with a 93 mph peak, above average command. Above average change up, average curveball and slider. Very Good control.

His Bio, and a scouting report. His MLB.com scouting video is here.

Profile of Second Round 2010 MLB draft pick by the Twins: Niko (Cartier) Goodrum

With their second round pick, the Twins select: 6-3, 175, SS Cartier (Niko) Goodrum from Fayetteville High School in Arkansas. His profile, several videos from his high school home page and his MLB.com scouting video

Who is Alex Wimmers? Twins 1st round pick

The Twins select RHP Alex Wimmers from OSU with their first round pick of the 2010 MLB amateur draft.



Alex is a 6'2" 195 lbs RHP, who is a Junior in the Ohio State University, born on 11/01/1988 in Cincinnati, Ohio. Low 90s fastball, good curve and a very good change up.

Here is his OSU profile, here is a scouting report, here is an additional scouting report, a scouting report and video, his MLB.com scouting video, and a video interview. Four mock drafts, including Baseball America and ESPN's Keith Law, predicted that the Twins will draft him. BA in their draft blog compares him to Brad Radke and Kevin Slowey. Another scouting report, an earlier Baseball America article about Wimmers, and an additional report with some caution about injuries.









More information tomorrow and expect live blogging with every Twins draft pick and equal amount of information given for each pick. After the draft is done, I will post a summary with opinions about signability of each pick and review how they fit the Twins' needs.

Wimmers is very signable.

2010 MLB draft: 26 Left Hand Pitchers you should know

Earlier this week, I presented a list of 34 middle infield prospects for the 2010 MLB draft. An additional, and more pressing need for the Twins organization that will be addressed in the 2010 MLB Amateur draft, is left hand pitchers and especially starters. Here is an alphabetic list of 26 LHP of note, eligible for the 2010 draft. One or more of these, could be drafted by the Twins. There are links to player profiles, statistics, scouting reports and videos, as well as different articles and interviews when I could find them. The list consists of shortstops and second basemen, however, some of these players project to play at third base in the next level. All links open pages on a new window/tab so you do not have to navigate away from this page and then get back.


Mitch Beacom 6-8, 240. UCLA. His player profile and a youtube game video.

Jesse Biddle 6-5, 220, Germantown Friends HS, PA. Scouting report, scouting video, a video story from Comcast SportsNet and his MLB.com scouting video.

Kevin Chapman 6-4. 210, University of Florida. His Baseball Cube stats page, his profile and an article.

Kevin Gelinas 6-5, 235, University of California, Santa Barbara. His profile, an interview, and a brief article.

Kyle Hald 6-0, 200, Old Dominion University. His 2010 stats from College Splits and his profile.

Bryan Harper 6-5, 190 . Bryce Harper's (projected #1 overall pick) older brother. His MLB.com scouting video and another scouting video.

Jimmy Hodgskin 6-2, 185. Bishop Moore HS, FL. His profile, a youtube game video and an article.

Thomas Keeling 6-3, 184. Oklahoma State University. His profile and his MLB.com scouting video.

Mike Kickham 6-4, 201. Missouri State University. His profile and his bio.

Adam Liberatore 6-3, 210. Tennessee Tech. His profile, and his stats from College Splits.

Bryan Morgado 6-3, 203. Tennessee. His MLB.com scouting video, an article, his 2010 stats and his bio.

Griffin Murphy 6-3, 195. Redlands East Valley HS, CA. His MLB.com scouting video, an additional scouting video, his profile and a Baseball America writeup

James Paxton 6-4, 220. Kentucky. First round (supplemental) draft pick by Toronto in 2009, decided to return in college, and was in a legal battle with NCAA resulting to his withdrawal from College. His bio, His 2009 MLB.com draft page, and a mini scouting report.

Drew Pomeranz 6-5, 230. University of Mississippi. Scouting report, scouting report and video, his MLB.com scouting video, and stats, scouting report and game-by-game tracker.

Robbie Ray 6-3, 185, Brentwood HS, TN. His profile, and his MLB.com scouting video.

Rob Rasmussen 5-11, 180, UCLA. A scouting video, scouting report, an interview, his MLB.com scouting video, his wikipedia page (not many of the players drafted in 2010 have one of those), and his profile.

Tanner Robles 6-2, 205, Oregon State. His profile.

Chris Sale6-7, 185, Florida Gulf Coast University. A scouting report, another scouting report and video by a pro scout, and his MLB.com scouting video.

Sammy Solis 6-5, 228, University of San Diego. A compilation of reports, his MLB.com scouting video, and a Sporting News story.

Jordan Shipers 5-11, 165, South Harrison HS, MO. A scouting video, and his profile.

Drew Smyly 6-3, 190, University of Arkansas. A story, and his profile.

Cody Wheeler6-0, 170, Coastal Carolina University. His profile, an article, and his MLB.com scouting video.

Bennett Whitmore6-3, 215, University of Oregon. His profile.

Sam Wilson6-1, 195, El Dorado HS, NM. His profile, and an article

Austin Wright6-4, 220, Conant HS, IL. His profile and video, an interview, and his MLB.com scouting video.

Kevin Ziomek6-2, 180, Armhest Regional HS, MA. A scouting report, scouting video, and and article with a video about his delivery.

In addition to these 26 lefties, Here is the list of the top 75 LHP College prospects from Baseball Draft Report.

The next segment will be live blogging coverage of the draft starting Monday that will include descriptions and profiles of the Twins' picks.

2010 MLB draft: 34 middle infielders you should know

As I indicated yesterday, middle infield is one of the needs for the Twins that will be addressed in the 2010 MLB Amateur draft. Here is an alphabetic list of 34 middle infielders of note, eligible for the 2010 draft. Almost certainly one or more of these, will be drafted by the Twins. There are links to player profiles, statistics, scouting reports and videos, as well as different articles and interviews when I could find them. The list consists of shortstops and second basemen, however, some of these players project to play at third base in the next level. All links open pages on a new window/tab so you do not have to navigate away from this page and then get back.


Zach Alvord 5-11, 170. South Forsyth HS, GA. A scouting video and his profile.

Ryan Brett 5-8, 170; Highline HS, Seattle, WA. A scouting report and video, and his MLB.com scouting video.

Yordy Cabrera 6-4, 190, Lakeland HS, FL. Scouting report, his MLB.com scouting video and an interview; might move to a corner position. Cabrera was the Twins' first round pick in the Deep Leagues 2010 mock MLB draft.

Nick Castellanos, 6-4, 200, McCarthy High School, Davie, FL. MLB.com scouting video, scouting report and video and a compilation of scouting reports; has been compared to Alex Rodriguez and is another potential player who could move to third base.

Garin Cecchini 6-2, 200. Lake Charles HS, LA. His Profile

Christian Colon, 6-0, 185, Cal State Fullerton. Scouting report, baseball cube stats page(these have only stats up to 2009), an additional scouting reports, his career stats and his game-by-game box score lines can be found here

Kaleb Coward, 6-3, 190. Cook Cty HS, GA. Scouting report, several game videos, and his profile; might be drafted as a pitcher, but expressed the preference to be an infielder in the next level; could move to third base. Coward was the Twins' first round pick in the MLB Bonus Baby, Mack's Mets and Football Fan Spot 2010 mock MLB drafts.

Zach Cox 6-0, 215 lbs. University of Arkansas. His profile, his MLB.com scouting video, an additional scouting reportand a compilation of scouting reports and draft notes.

Delino DeShields Jr. 5-8, 180 Woodward Academy, GA. Former Major Leaguer Delino DeShields' son. His MLB.com scouting video and an interview; highly recruited as a football player, but prefers to play pro baseball.

Derek Dietrich 6-1, 195. Georgia Tech. An interview, his baseball cube stats page, a scouting report and video and several videos at youtube .

Adam Duvall 6-1, 200. Louisville. His profile and a video interview.

Niko Goodrum 6-3, 175. Fayette county HS, Jonesboro, GA. His profile, several videos from his high school home page and his MLB.com scouting video; another player who might eventually move to a corner infield position.

Phil Gosselin 6-1, 185. University of Virginia. His Baseball Cube Stats page, a scouting video, and his profile.

Jedd Gyorko 5-10, 185. West Virginia University. A scouting report, his MLB.com scouting video, and his baseball cube stats page.

Rick Hauge 6-2, 190. Rice University. A scouting report and video and his Baseball Cube stats page; another potential future third baseman.

Jacoby Jones 6-3, 180. Richton High School, MS. His profile, his MLB.com scouting video, and a game video.

Carter Jurica 5-11, 178; Kansas State University. His baseball cube stats page and his 2010 KSU stat sheet (pdf document).

Lonnie Kauppila 6-1, 170. Burbank HS, CA. His profile and a scouting report.

Wade Kirkland 5-10, 180. Florida Southern. His profile.

Jake Lemmerman 6-2, 185. Duke. His Baseball Cube stats page

Devin Lohman 6-1, 185. Long Beach State. His profile and his Baseball Cube stats page.

Matt Lipka 6-1, 192 McKinney HS, Frisco, TX. A Scouting report, and an interview.

Marcus Littlewood 6-3, 190 Pineview HS, UT. His Scouting report, his MLB.com scouting video, an additional scouting report and several game videos from youtube.

Manny Machado 6-2, 180. Brito HS, FL. A scouting report and video, his profile, an additional scouting report, a compilation of scouting reports, and his MLB.com scouting video; another Floridian who drew comparisons to Alex Rodriguez.

Justin O'Conner 6-1, 190. Cowan HS, Muncie, IN. A scouting report and video an additional scouting report, another scouting report, a game video and his MLB.com scouting video. O'Conner was the Twins' first round pick in the 5 Tool Talk 2010 mock MLB draft.

AJ Pettersen 5-9, 160. University of Minnesota. His profile.

Josh Rutledge 6-0, 185. University of Alabama. A scouting report and his MLB.com scouting video.

Tim Smalling 6-2, 209. Virginia Tech. An article

Kellen Sweeney 5-11, 155. Jefferston HS, IA. Current Oakland As' Ryan Sweeney's brother. His MLB.com scouting video and an additional scouting video

Joe Terry 6-0, 180. Cerritos Community College, CA. A Baseball America story

Kolbrin Vitek 6-3, 195. Ball State University. His Baseball Cube Stats page, a scouting report, scouting report and video and his MLB.comscouting video.

Colin Walsh 6-1, 185. Stanford. Baseball Cube stats page

LeVon Washington 5'11", 170. Chipola Junior College. His MLB.com scouting video, a profile, an additional profile and an article; he was Tampa Bay Rays' 1st round pick in 2009 but did not sign; currently a center fielder but projects as a second baseman in professional baseball.

Ross Wilson 5-11, 185. University of Alabama. His Baseball Cube stats page, his MBL.com scouting video, a profile and an article from his Cape Code League days.

Tony Wolters 5-10, 165. Rancho Buena Vista HS, CA. Scouting report and videos, his MLB.com scouting video, an additional scouting report and a youtube game video. Wolters was the Twins' first round pick in the Baseball Draft Report 2010 mock MLB draft.


In addition to these 34 High School and College potential draftees, here are the lists of the top 30 College shortstop and second base prospects from Baseball Draft Report, including mini scouting reports for each of the sixty players listed.

2010 Twins MLB draft: Introduction

As I did last season, I will cover the 2010 MLB Amateur draft in detail. This is what to expect for draft coverage here:

• An introduction (this post) with what I think the Twins' draft needs are and who mock drafts have as the Twins' first round pick for 2010


• A couple of posts before the draft, focusing on potential draftees in the areas of need for the Twins (later this week), including links to profiles, scouting reports and player videos. There will be more that 50 potential draftees presented, so there is a good likelihood that there will be some future Twins in the list


• Live draft coverage on each day of the draft, both with live blogging and on twitter. I will tweet each pick as happens, then I will blog details about the player including scouting reports, projections, videos etc, in this space. You can follow me on twitter @thrylos98, or you can come here and refresh the page often. My tweets will appear on the left hand side of the page, as always. I will do a single post with the details of each draftee and I think that it will be more clear that last year.


• There is still plenty of time, so please let me know whether you want to see anything else

First of all a reminder about what this draft includes: The Rule 4 Draft, or the First-Year Player Draft (all those 3 things are synonyms), includes players who are residents of the U.S., Canada and U.S. territories such as Puerto Rico, U.S. Virgin Islands, American Samoa, Guam, Northern Mariana Islands and Minor Outlying Islands. Residents of other countries are not subject to the Rule 4 Draft, but are signed as free agents either when they are young (the majority of Latin American, European, African and Australian players) or when are established (the majority of Japanese players.) Free agents have the ability to negotiate with each team and actually, depending on the perceived value of a player, induce a bidding war for their services. Thus, a lot of Cuban refugees do not take residence in the U.S. or a territory, so they will not be subjected to the amateur draft, but take residence in a Latin American country like Bolivia or Mexico. The minor league draft is a way for organizations to restock their systems.

Looking at the Twins' needs in the draft, they are very similar to last season, with a slight difference: This organization is stocked with right hand pitchers (both starters and relievers), outfielders, even with the departure of 24 year old Carlos Gomez, and Catchers. Ten of my 25 best Twins' hitting prospects this offseason were outfielders, 4 were catchers, 2 third basemen, one first baseman, and six middle infielders. Arguably the stock of most middle infielders in the list (other than Trevor Plouffe) has fallen this season (I treat Sano as a third baseman) and the highest ranked middle infielder in my list was Brian Dozier at number 10, who has been doing very well as a SS in Ft. Myers after his promotion from Beloit this season, but still, middle infield is a place of concern and I think that the Twins should address that in this draft. Another position that could appear concerning (and this is new this season is first base, since there is no heir apparent to Justin Morneau in the organization). Chris Parmelee (my 6th best hitter prospect) is as close as it gets, but there is always the possibility of the Twins converting an outfielder or a catcher to a first baseman, if the need arises, so in some ways, first base is the easiest position to fill, so it is not much of a rear concern. In addition to middle infield, another (and potentially higher) priority should be left hand pitching.

In My list of the top 25 Twins pitching prospects last off-season, only 4 were lefties and from those only Dan Osterbrock (who pitched a no hitter in Beloit before he was promoted to Ft. Myers and struggled, this season) and Tyler Roberston (who has been struggling after his promotion to Rochester) are starters (Matt Bashore and Andrei Lobanov are the relievers). So LHSP is a pressing need and should be addressed as a very high priority.

Here is what different mock drafts project for the Twins' first round pick this season:

Mymlbdraft.com: Austin Wilson, OF, Harvard-Westlake HS, CA.

Draftsite.com: Chevez Clarke, OF, Marietta HS, GA

MLB Scout Buzz: Alex Wimmers, RHP, Ohio State

ESPN's Keith Law (subscription required): Alex Wimmers, RHP, Ohio State

The SportBank.net: Alex Wimmers, RHP, Ohio State

Baseball America : Alex Wimmers, RHP, Ohio State

MLB Bonus Baby:Kaleb Cowart, IF/RHP, Cook County HS, GA

Mack's Mets:Kaleb Cowart, IF/RHP, Cook County HS, GA

The Football Fan Spot:Kaleb Cowart, IF/RHP, Cook County HS, GA

5 Tool Talk: Justin O'Conner SS/RHP, Cowan HS, IN

The Perfect Game: Asher Wojciechowski, RHP, The Citadel

High School Rivals: Asher Wojciechowski, RHP, The Citadel

MLB Fanhouse: A.J. Cole (RHP), Oviedo HS, FL

Baseball Draft Report: Anthony Wolters, INF, Rancho Buena Vista HS, CA

Call to the Pen: Anthony Ranaudo, RHP, Louisiana State University

Prospect Junkies: Bryce Brentz - OF - Middle Tennessee State

Fanspeak: Bryce Brentz - OF - Middle Tennessee State

Deep Leagues: Yordy Cabrera, SS, Lakeland HS, FL

Project Prospect: Brandon Workman, RHP, University of Texas

There are some themes here, but not consensus (as there was expected not to be): a. the need to draft a middle infielder is clear with several suggested as potential top picks for the Twins b. another whole set of mock drafts are looking for Joe Nathan's replacement (most of those RHPs project as closers). What do I think? I think that Joe Rauch has shown that replacing a closer is not something that it extremely hard to do, plus in Neshek, Gutierrez and Slama the Twins have potential closers at the higher levels of the organization who will be under team control for a while. I think that the hardest thing to get is an impact lefty starter and if one falls into the Twins' lap early, they should go for it. Also an impact bat in the middle infield will be nice. There are a few such players in this draft and if, again, someone falls to the Twins pick, like Gibson did last season, I suspect that the Twins will not pass.

As a reminder, no mock draft picked Kyle Gibson for the Twins, last season...

In the next two installments I will be previewing about 35 middle infielders and 20 left hand pitchers.

Who is Hot in the Twins' Minors: Version 3

The third installment of the Who is hot in the Twins' minors, comes a couple of days after the DSL season opener, where Miguel Angel Sano greeted his professional debut by sending the first pitch he saw in his professional career over the left field wall for a home run. Expect DSL players to be included in the next installment of the series. Speaking of DSL players, it seems that the following members of the 2009 DSL squad will be making the trip up North to be parts of the GCL and/or Elizabethton Twins' 2010 teams: Right hand pitchers: Carlos Carrillo, Cesar Ciurcina, Pedro Guerra, and Manuel Soliman, Left hand pitcher Luis Nunez, third baseman Wander Guillen, outfielder Candido Pimenter and first baseman Kelvin Silvania. It is no secret that I have a high opinion of the players of the 2008 and 2009 DSL teams and prospects like Pedro Guerra (whom I have consistently ranked as one of the top pitching prospects in the Twins organization), Ciurcina, Silvania and Guillen will have an opportunity to impress the audience that does not unfortunately follow the DSL.

Here is the list of who is hot in the minors and there has been considerable player movement since the last listing:

Catchers:


Infielders:
Yangervis Solarte(SHB, 22, AA/A+) .321/.368/.476 5 HR, 22 RBI, 186 PA

Outfielders:

Dustin Martin (LHB, 26, AAA) .302/.368/.459 5 HR, 33 RBI, 191 PA
Jason Repko (RHB, 29, AAA) .310/.389/.437 4 HR, 19 RBI, 182 PA
Ben Revere (LHB, 22, AA) .315/.394/.387 1 HR, 16 RBI, 18 SB, 210 PA

1st basemen/DH:


RH Starters:

Anthony Swarzak (24,AAA) 4.05 ERA, 0.950 WHIP, 6.8 K/9, 3.75 K/BB
Bobby Lanigan (23, A+) 2.67 ERA, 0.989 WHIP, 8.3 K/9, 7.00 K/BB
Kyle Gibson (22, A+/AA) 1.68 ERA, 1.005 WHIP, 8.1 K/9, 3.71 K/BB
Liam Hendricks (21, A) 1.88 ERA, 0.767 WHIP, 10.0 K/9, 8.00 K/BB
Tom Stuifbergen (21, A) 1.09 ERA, 1.061 WHIP, 9.3 K/9, 4.25 K/BB


LH Starters:

Dan Osterbrock (23, A/A+) 3.30 ERA, 1.221 WHIP, 7.7 K/9, 3.77 K/BB

RH Relievers:

Matt Fox (27, AAA) 2.44 ERA, 1.015 WHIP, 6.3 K/9, 2.38 K/BB
Anthony Slama (26, AAA) 1.55 ERA, 0.793 WHIP, 10.9 K/9, 2.92 K/BB
Kyle Waldrop (24, AAA) 1.47 ERA, 0.955 WHIP, 6.1 K/9, 4.17 K/BB
Matthew Williams (23, A+) 3.07 ERA, 1.091 WHIP, 9.5 K/9, 3.44 K/BB
Kane Holbrooks (23, A) 1.23 ERA, 1.057 WHIP, 12.6 K/9, 5.86 K/BB
Jhon Garcia (23, A) 2.08 ERA, 1.096 WHIP, 3.6 K/9, 1.40 K/BB
Dakota Watts (22, A) 2.16 ERA, 1.230 WHIP, 10.0 K/9, 1.85 K/BB

LH Relievers:

Andrei Lobanov (20, A+) 1.59 ERA, 1.147 WHIP, 7.9 K/9, 3.33 K/BB

Ranking Twins hitters based on offensive productivity

Today I am doing a slightly different exercise: I am ranking the Twins' hitters based on offensive productivity. What do I mean with "offensive productivity"? I take the old Runs Scored plus Runs Batted In measure (R+RBI) and divide it by Plate Appearances. This way hitters do get credit for both scoring and driving in runs (which are the 2 things a hitter is supposed to do) normalized by the opportunities (PAs) they had to do that. This numbers is pretty nice, because it comes to a familiar format, close to the Batting Average format that is very familiar to everyone who watches baseball. Here are the rankings (for the 2010 season, including last night's game) :

Justin Morneau: .333
Joe Mauer: .285
Jim Thome: .265
Delmon Young: .262
Jason Kubel: .250
Michael Cuddyer: .239
Denard Span: .232
Orlando Hudson: .230
Alexi Casilla: .191
J.J. Hardy: .185
Nick Punto: .173
Brendan Harris: .144
Drew Butera: .103

probably a few surprises there, mainly Span and Hardy who would appear more productive than what their numbers indicate.

Twins and RISP: The whole story

Recently there has been a lot of frustration about the Twins stranding runners and under-performing as a team in with runners in scoring position. Several places have been trying to look at the phenomenon and even some contributed it to 'bad luck'. All the analyses I have seen have one thing in common: They look at the team as a whole vs the individual players. Here I am looking at the difference of the overall batting average of each individual player from his batting average with RISP. I am looking at batting average, because a single is usually sufficient to score someone in scoring position and a walk does not help. Without further ado:

Casilla: Overall: .257; RISP: .333 (+.076)
Thome: Overall: .241; RISP: .300 (+.059)
Hardy: Overall: .243; RISP: .294 (+.051)
Span: Overall: .287; RISP: .324 (+.047)
Punto: Overall: .218; RISP: .250 (+.032)
Kubel: Overall: .217; RISP: .233 (+.016)

Mauer: Overall: .340; RISP: .341 (+.001)
Young: Overall: .263; RISP: .262 (-.001)

Morneau: Overall: .369; RISP: .306 (-.063)

Cuddyer: Overall: .278; RISP: .213 (-.066)
Hudson: Overall: .293; RISP: .217 (-.076)
Harris: Overall: .176; RISP: .077 (-.089)

So, it is unfair to dump the whole team in a bucket. Six players (Casilla, Thome, Span, Hardy, Kubel, Punto) have been hitting better with RISP than overall. Two others have been consistent (Mauer, Young). Morneau has a big drop with RISP, but he still is batting .306 in this situation, which has him 4th in BA with RISP in the team behind Mauer, Casilla and Span. The major culpits for the Twins' woes in this situation are Orlando Hudson, Michael Cuddyer and Brendan Harris. Three players. Not the whole team. There are enough substitutes (Casilla, Kubel, Punto) to limit the time of these 3 players.

Not luck, not a black cat, not a whole team fault. Just 3 players... who should sit until starting to heat up

In defense of Jesse Crain

It seems that these days, Jesse Crain has been the favorite target of the Twins' fanbase, bloggers, media and potentially his manager (if one reads between Gardenhire's words) as a result of the latest unsuccessful road trip on the East Coast, which resulted in elimination of the Division lead for the Twins and having the team tied in first place with the Detroit Tigers. Jesse Crain has been looked at as the sacrificial lamb, who needs to be cut from the team, to solve the Twins' woes, and his last name more times than not, appears on the internet hyphenated with "Wreck". Does he deserve the outcry for his dismissal? He must, since he is pitching in the rhythm of 6.88 ERA, has walked 5 and struck out only 12 in 17 innings and his WHIP is an ugly 1.588. Or doesn't he? Let's dig deeper into the numbers:

• Jesse Crain has been unlucky. His (opponents' batting average on balls in play, BABIP) is .346, which is inflated and will regress to the league norm of .295, resulting in lower WHIP and more effectiveness.


• Speaking of effectiveness... Jesse Crain has been effective (did not allow an earned run) in 12 of his 17 appearances this season. I understand that this might look like a surprise to some. If we look closer at 5 appearances he has been ineffective, 4 of them came with 3 days rest and one with no rest. Here is how opponents hit against Jesse Crain, based on how much rest Crain has before he pitches:
  
  
  
  • No rest: .444/.500/.889 (1.389 OPS)
  
  
  • 1 day rest: .286/.286/.357 (.643 OPS)
  
  
  • 2 days rest: .176/.176/.235 (.412 OPS)
  
  
  • 3 days rest: .417/.481/.917 (1.398 OPS)
  
  
  
  So, Jesse Crain has been effective other than when he pitched with no rest or 3 days of rest. This could be explained by the fact that his fastball has been his most ineffective pitch. A hard thrower like Crain needs some rest to command his fastball but not enough rest so that his fastball becomes too flat (which has been a general complain about Crain). So it looks like how and when Crain is used affects his stuff and not that "Crain has lost his stuff" per se



• So is a manager or a pitching coach supposed to be a seer and guess that when Crain has too much rest he is not himself, so they use him with less rest? Not exactly... Here are Crain's career numbers (opponents hitting) with various days of rest (same as above, but career, not only 2010 and just OPS, not slashlines):
  
  
  
  • No rest: .669 OPS
  
  
  • 1 day rest: .719 OPS
  
  
  • 2 days rest: .636 OPS
  
  
  • 3 days rest: .817 OPS
  
  
  
  Clearly, Crain has always been less effective when rested 3 days. His manager and pitching coach should have known that and not have allowed it to happen. They should set him up to succeed and not fail. As far as the discrepancy of the no rest numbers between 2010 and career go, it could be an artifact due to that single (the one of the 5) bad outing with no rest this season (5/18 0.1 IP, 2 H, 2 ER, 1 HR) and just the sample might not be enough. The 3 days rest day, based on the career is significant




• So how much has Jesse Crain hurt the Twins in 2010: Not that much. His total win probability added (WPA) for 2010 is = -0.02, which is close to zero. Players like Cuddyer (WPA = -0.96, which is losing a game practically) and Drew Butera (WPA = -0.78) have hurt the Twins more. Could this be because Crain was good only when the game was not close? Let's look at the numbers. This is how opponents hit against Jesse Crain in 2010, in high leverage, medium leverage and low leverage situations:
  
  
  
  • High Leverage: .231/.286/.385 (.670 OPS)
  
  
  • Medium Leverage: .313/.353/.438 (.790 OPS)
  
  
  • Low Leverage: .333/.378/.690 (1.068 OPS)
  
  
  
  In other words, Crain has been very good when the game was close and not so good in mop-up role and really has not cost the Twins games this season.

What can one do to make Crain successful? I know that it might appear counter intuitive to many, but the above suggest:

• Use him only with 1 or 2 days rest


• Do not use him in mop up situations


• And Crain, truthfully, has pitched much better than his ERA suggests this season, really... (His FIP is 2 points less than his ERA, btw, for the ones who like that metric.) He just has not been used in the right manner and failed when used in the wrong manner. So it is unfair to him to be the sacrificial lamb for the Twins' struggles...
  

The Twins' most valuable corner outfielder?

Today is Delmon Young day in the Twins' blogosphere. The Delmon Young day, like the Nick Punto day, is the brainchild of Andrew Kneeland of Twins' Target. My premise today is simple: Let's examine who so far has been the most valuable corner outfielder for the Twins, especially since a corner outfield (Delmon Young so far) has been freequently on the bench in order for Ron Gardenhire to find plate appearances for both Jason Kubel and Thome. There are lot of personal opinions and biases, but numbers do not lie.

Lets compare Mike Cuddyer and Delmon Young this season using rate starts to be fair.

Hitting slash line: Cuddyer .275/.318/.442, .760 OPS; Young .287/.337/.479, .816 OPS. Advantage: Young across the board
BB/K ration: Cuddyer: 0.556, Young: 0.80. Advantage: Young
isoP: Cuddyer: .167, Young: .192. Advantage: Young
extra base hits/hits: Cuddyer: .316, Young: .444. Advantage: Young
% swings on pitches outside the strike zone: Cuddyer 38.5%, Young 37.3%. Advantage: Young
runs/hits+bb: Cuddyer: .354, Young: 0.400. Advantage: Young
win probability added : Cuddyer: -.88, Young: -.11. Advantage: Young
UZR (today's game not included): Cuddyer: -4.0, Young: +1.0. Advantage: Young
Range Factor per 9 innings (today's game not included): Cuddyer: 1.9, Young 2.1. Advantage: Young


Any way you dice it and slice it, Delmon Young has been more valuable for the Minnesota Twins this season than Mike Cuddyer. Numbers do not lie. Everything else is opinion and gut feelings. The majority of the Twins' fans, the vast majority of the sports media and bloggers covering the Twins, and, unfortunately, the one who makes the decisions, do not see it this way... and this hurts the Twins. It is time to take the blindfolds off and open the minds: Delmon Young is the most valuable Twins' outfielder so far this season and he should get more playing time than Mike Cuddyer when Jason Kubel and Jim Thome both need to be in the lineup.

Who is Hot in the Twins' Minors: Version 2

This is the second version of the 'who is hot in the Twins' minors' series. About a month into the minor league seasons now, it is not surprising to confirm that the Twins have a nice pitching depth in all levels of their minors (albeit, a little less as far as LHP go.) There are several pitchers in Rochester who can jump in and contribute with the big team, as necessary. In addition, pretty much the whole starting rotation in Beloit is hot, which might result to interesting moves as this month progresses.

The bats have cooled off a little bit, but it is nice to see that Aaron Hicks, the top prospect of the Twins, according to many, is heating up. Also nice, as far as the big club goes, is the fact that Jason Repko and Dustin Martin are hot in Rochester, in case the Twins need CF help (the only position that is not backed up well in the major league club).

Here is the list:

Catchers:


Infielders:
Matt Macri (RHB, 28, AAA) .360/.484/.640 1 HR, 3 RBI, 32 PA

Outfielders:

Dustin Martin (LHB, 26, AAA) .321/.404/.603 5 HR, 24 RBI, 89 PA
Jason Repko (RHB, 29, AAA) .313/.420/.507 3 HR, 7 RBI, 81 PA
Aaron Hicks (SHB, 20, A) .298/.433/.464 3 HR, 8 RBI, 104 PA

1st basemen/DH:


RH Starters:

Deolis Guerra (21,AA) 3.91 ERA, 1.043 WHIP, 6.7 K/9, 8.50 K/BB
David Bromberg (22,AA) 1.12 ERA, 1.000 WHIP, 7.1 K/9, 3.17 K/BB
Bobby Lanigan (23, A+) 2.22 ERA, 0.918 WHIP, 7.9 K/9, 6.25 K/BB
Kyle Gibson (22, A+) 1.96 ERA, 1.009 WHIP, 7.9 K/9, 3.56 K/BB
Liam Hendricks (21, A) 0.64 ERA, 0.536 WHIP, 10.3 K/9, 10.67 K/BB
Tom Stuifbergen (21, A) 1.12 ERA, 1.031 WHIP, 9.0 K/9, 4.00 K/BB
Brad Stillings (22, A) 0.93 ERA, 1.034 WHIP, 4.7 K/9, 1.67 K/BB

LH Starters:

Dan Osterbrock (23, A) 2.30 ERA, 0.951 WHIP, 8.9 K/9, 5.40 K/BB

RH Relievers:

Matt Fox (27, AAA) 1.37 ERA, 1.068 WHIP, 7.8 K/9, 1.89 K/BB
Anthony Slama (26, AAA) 1.96 ERA, 0.927 WHIP, 11.3 K/9, 2.56 K/BB
Kyle Waldrop (24, AAA) 1.96 ERA, 1.036 WHIP, 5.4 K/9, 5.50 K/BB
Rob Delaney (25, AAA) 3.94 ERA, 1.000 WHIP, 10.1 K/9, 3.60 K/BB
Matthew Williams (23, A+) 2.84 ERA, 1.184 WHIP, 12.1 K/9, 5.67 K/BB
Kane Holbrooks (23, A) 1.26 ERA, 1.256 WHIP, 10.0 K/9, 5.33 K/BB
Dakota Watts (22, A) 1.72 ERA, 1.277 WHIP, 9.8 K/9, 2.13 K/BB

LH Relievers:

Spencer Steedley (25, AA) 2.70 ERA, 1.020 WHIP, 9.2 K/9, 2.83 K/BB
Edgar Ibarra (21, A) 3.86 ERA, 0.771 WHIP, 10.8 K/9, 3.50 K/BB