By the numbers: Potential Joe Nathan Replacements

By now a few million pages of virtual ink have been used to report and discuss Joe Nathan's elbow ligament injuring and to make pro and con arguments regarding a potential Joe Nathan replacements. I will take a slightly different direction in looking for that potential replacement: I will look at the performance of the Twins' internal closer candidates in 3 situations that are pretty important for closers (in save situations, when leading off an inning, and in high leverage situations.) I will compare these numbers to the AL average pitcher numbers as well as to those of Joe Nathan. In addition, I will look at both career and 2009 numbers, just to be fair to pitchers like Pat Neshek. It is an interesting exercise that I think might tell us more things about the state of the Twins' pen than who is the best replacement for Joe Nathan.

The Twins' pitchers' performance (measured by opponent's OPS in each of the 3 situations) has been tabulated below in the following manner:

CSS and 2009SS = Opponents' OPS in save situations (AL average for 2009 = .685) career and 2009
CLEAD and 2009LEAD = Opponents' OPS leading off an inning (AL average for 2009 = .761) career and 2009
CHIGHL and 2009HIGHL = Opponents' OPS in high leverage situations (AL average for 2009 = .754) career and 2009

to provide a quick visual, the performance of Twins' pitchers for each category better than the 2009 AL average in the category is indicated in bold and the performance of Twins' pitchers for each category better than Joe Nathan's in the same category is indicated with green.



Surprised? I surely am.

A few housekeeping items:

• I included every Twins' reliever projected to be on the 25 man roster as well as Liriano and Perkins who have been mentioned as potential candidates (btw, I doubt that Liriano will be a candidate because he would need to start pitching 1 inning at a time vs. 3 in spring training to assume the role)
  
• Liriano faced only 20 batters in save situations and Perkins only 10, so those results need to be taken with a grain of salt the size of the Dead Sea.
  
• These numbers are a bit of smoothie (mixing apples and oranges and other fruit) because in everything else than save situations, starter and reliever numbers are mixed. This is true for the individual pitchers as well as the league averages. So this is a high level view and not a prognostication of sorts
  
• Anthony Slama and Robert Delaney have been mentioned as possibilities. I think that the probability of the Twins handing the closer job to person with zero experience in the majors are close to zero
  

Here are my thoughts based on the above table:

• It will be hard to replace Joe Nathan
  
• Only Jose Mijares (a name that has barely been mentioned as a potential replacement) and Pat Neshek (who hasn't pitched for 2 years) come close to Nathan's production in those critical situations for a closer
  
• The leading candidate's in many people's minds (Joe Rauch's) performance has been below that of an AL average pitcher in all of those situations in 2009
  
• Having Fransisco Liriano as a closer is probably a bad idea
  
• Glen Perkins can probably make an above average reliever
  
• Clay Condrey is not much better than what Jesse Crain has been in his horrible 2009 season
  
• Matt Guerrier is a solid pitcher, but his .910 opponents' OPS leading off innings in 2009 is scary
  

Who will the new Twins' closer be? Who should he be? It is hard to tell, but based on the facts that a. Mijares has less than stellar reputation with the organization as far as off the field situations go (and I do not see them "rewarding" him with the closer position) and b. Neshek has not pitched for 2 years, I will not be surprised if the Twins go outside the organization for a replacement. That said, my gut feeling is that they will let all the above (minus Liriano) compete for the position this spring and nominate a closer based on spring training performance. If that person falters, then they will seek a replacement outside the organization during the season.

A couple of other things that need to be mentioned:

a. This is another case that the Twins' medical staff has checked someone for an injury during the season or just after the season, they took action and then the injury got worse. Slowey, Neshek, Bonser are all such examples. Something has to be done about this.

b. From the MLB pitchers that have been in the Twins' organization for a while, only Matt Guerrier and Nick Blackburn have not had major injuries (Slowey's was accidental - hit by a batted ball- but the organization gave him the ok to pitch hurt). The pitching coach and the manager should be held accountable for this.

What are your thoughts?

And from the news of the weird department: Newsbobber published its list of the top 60 Minnesota Twins' blogs. Thanks to the readership, this blog was ranked 17th, higher than Joe C's Star Tribune blog. So it has to be a mistake :) (Edit: it seems that they fixed that mistake, after all)

Delmon Young weight loss: Before and after pictures

Delmon Young reported to camp 30-35 lbs lighter. How does the new Delmon look? Without further ado:

New Delmon:



2009 Delmon:

2010 Twins minor league "dark horses": the outfield

A few days ago, I examined the potential "dark horses" for the Twins among infield players in their system and suggested that Luke Hughes has the potential to be such a player in 2010. Today, I will try to identify an outfielder in the Twins' system with dark horse potential, and in a later post I will conclude the series with a pitcher.

It is very well known and very frequently discussed, that with the trade of Carlos Gomez to the Milwaukee Brewers for J.J. Hardy and the release of Jason Pridie, despite the fact that the Twins will have 4 outfielders in the major league roster, the only one who can play the center field successfully is Denard Span. Gardenhire has indicated that Cuddyer, Casilla, Punto and Tolbert will play some CF this spring in order to potentially play there if a need arises but not even in Ron Gardenhire's wildest dreams, if there is an injury (or a medical issue like last season) to Denard Span, which will keep him out of action for more than a week or so, any of these options are viable.

The Twins have Ben Revere, a highly rated prospect in the system, and he might get an early call to action; Dustin Martin is ok at CF and Jacque Jones recently returned home, embraced by the organization like the prodigal son. Could any of them be a dark horse? Potentially (also add Rene Tosoni to the equation), but the player who has caught my interest, is another one: Jacque Jones' teammate with the Newark Bears last season, Charlton Jimerson.

Lets examine the facts of his minor league career: Charlton Jimerson is fast, has some power, but strikes out about 5-6 times more than he walks (in a good season). That is the recipe for a failure to make the majors and would point out that the guy is a career minor leaguer at best. To tell the truth, this was my perception at the announcement of his signing but I dug a bit more; and here are the reasons why I think that Charlton Jimerson could be a dark horse for the Twins in 2010:

a. He is a survivor in life. When life threw lemons at Charlton, he did not only make lemonade, he made a top shelf Margarita. You can read more about his childhood here but this is a summary: Middle of 5 kids, dad left the house very early, mom was a crack cocaine addict, older sister was supporting the family as a teenager working 3 jobs and when Charlton was 15 he and his younger brothers were awarded custody to their older brother who just had turned 19. Not many people have dealt with this kind of situations and all Charlton did was to attend the University of Miami with an academic scholarship and made the team (one of the most competitive College baseball teams, btw) as a walk in. This says a lot about, not only his character, but his determination and perseverance. What if he has been a career minor leaguer and played independent league ball last season at age 29? He has been in much worse situations in his life and came out of them shining.

b. He made the best out of the meager opportunities he had in the majors. He was called up as a September call-up in 4 seasons (2 each with Seattle and Houston). He played in 31 games but had only 9 at bats total (he was used as a pinch runner and defensive replacement). But... he is on the rare club of players who hit a home run at the first major league at bat and his total line has been .444/.444/1.111 with 2 HR, 4 SB and 8 runs scored (in only 9 AB).

c. He strikes out a lot, but does make contact, and when he makes contact he hits the ball hard. Also he is fast, a good fielder and a stolen base threat. Here is his career MiLB line: .258/.312/.456; 144 HR, 185 2B, 261 SB, 4303 AB (this projects to 22 HR, 28 2B and 40 SB over 650 AB). One may say that minor league numbers will not translate. Here is a comparable, exactly the same age as Charlton Jimerson: Garrett Jones. Garrett's career MiLB line is .258/.312/.450 (eerily, practically identical to Charlton Jimerson's). All Garrett Jones did was to hit .293/.372/.567 with 21 HRs in 314 AB with the Pirates last season. Another comparable slash line (with a twist) : .254/.304/.444; Joe Crede's career MLB line. And Charlton Jimerson has at least as much power as the other two plus a 40 SB potential plus good OF defense in all 3 places, esp. CF. Furthermore, his line last season with the Newark Bears (competition level probably equivalent to AA or the Mexican league) was: .335/.387/.567 21 HR, 38 SB and a reasonable (career best) 36 BB to 88 K. If a Twins' AA player posted these numbers the organization, the fans and the press would have declared him the next best thing out there...

These are the reasons for which I think that Charlton Jimerson has the potential to be a dark horse for the Twins in 2010, plus he is a great guy to root for...

Twins minor league "dark horses" for 2010: the infield

Once upon a baseball season, there are these rare minor league players who seem to come from nowhere, are called up usually due to injury and do have an unexpected impact with the organization. You do not find those players on the top 10 talent prospect lists of a system, but players like this do exist. A recent example for the Minnesota Twins is Denard Span whose (albeit being a former first round pick) performance in the minors made the Twins to look for outfielders outside their system. Span came up in the 2008 season after Michael Cuddyer's injury and played well enough to win a staring position in 2009 and allow the Twins the luxury of trading Carlos Gomez for J.J. Hardy. Another similar case is Jose Mijares, who practically came out of nowhere in September of 2008 and solidified the left side of the pen for the final run.

Who are the potential dark horses in the Twins' minor leagues that might be 2010s Mijares and Span?

Here are my thoughts as far as the infielders go:

Danny Valencia is the popular choice. Actually, he is not that dark of a horse. It is almost anticipated (I should say "expected") by the Twins' fans (and front office) that Valencia will be with the club in 2010 sometime and will be the Twins' third baseman of the future. So, sorry Danny, the expectations (fair or not) are there for you.

However, there is another infielder in the Twins system who might surprise people this season. And he is Luke Hughes. Luke has a career minor league line of .270/.333/.421 including a .259/.344/.481 campaign in Rochester for 157 plate appearances before he was injured last season. The usual "knock" on Hughes is that he "is bad with the glove". My impression is that he is just playing in the wrong position, at 3B, instead of at 2B, which is his best defensive position. How good a second basement is he? There are not any advanced fielding metrics for minor leagues, I would have to resort to Fielding Percentage and Range Factor per Game (I know... but they can be just an indicator, and nothing more or nothing less). Lets look at some career numbers of 2B fielding:

Luke Huges (MiLB) : FP .971, RF/G 4.14

Nick Punto (MLB) : FP .985, RF/G 4.28
Orlando Hudson (2009) FP .984, RF/G 4.72

ok, clearly he is not at the Punto/Hudson level, yet, but he is 25 years old. Let's compare his numbers with those of another Twins' second baseman:

Matt Tolbert (MiLB) : FP .972, RF/G 4.24

That is pretty close, and Hughes is better with the bat and 3 years younger than Tolbert. If Tolbert's defense is serviceable, Hughes should be. With consistent playing at second base, he could turn into a Dan Uggla-type of player if he reaches his power potential as he gets closer to his prime. For comparison, Dan Uggla's career Minor League line is .276/.347/.442 (which is in Hughes' ballpark and that includes a .297/.378/.502 AA campaign line -569 PA- in his age 25 season, whereas Hughes has not played his age 25 season yet.) Dan Uggla's career fielding line in the minors was .962 FP and 4.41 RF/G. Does this mean that Luke Hughes can be the next Dan Uggla? No. But it means that their minor league hitting and fielding has been comparable so far and I would not be surprised if Luke Hughes is a dark horse for the Twins these season.

Joe Mauer's beard

Despite of what Eric Olson wrote today, the AP Paparazzi did their job, and here is a photo of that elusive beard:



Rumor has it, that it will be gone tomorrow...

Nick Punto Day: Friday February 12th

What's black and blue all over and gets an average of a wrist surgery every other year?

You know the answer...
(Hint: he was the lead off hitter for Team Italy in the past World Baseball Cup)



Lots of things have been said about Nick Punto and I am not going to get there tonight (other that snide remark above)

Nick Punto has been a decent utility infielder with the Twins.

His career line .248/.322/.324 (.647 OPS) was to be projected from his career minor league line (.265/.361/.338), so there is no surprise that he has been consistent with the bat.

He is an above average fielder, he is small (5'9, 170 lbs; generously listed) and can play multiple positions and can play them well, albeit a tad fancy (read: form vs. function)



He is a "gamer", "plays his heart out" and "knows how to use the bat". This describes a slew of smaller utility players the Twins had since pretty much their move to Minnesota. Case in point, here are Nick Punto's predecessors, their MLB career slash lines and their listed height and weight in playing days:

Denny Hocking: .251/.310/.344 .654 OPS (1997-2004) 5'10, 176 lbs
Jeff Reboulet: .240/.332/.318 .649 OPS (1992-1996) 6'0", 169 lbs
Al Newman: .226/.304/.266 .570 OPS (1987-1991) 5'9, 183 lbs
Ron Washington: .261/.292/.368 .659 OPS (1981-1986) 5'11, 163 lbs
Rob Wilfong .248/.303/.345 .648 OPS (1977-1981) 6'1", 185 lbs
Luis Gomez .210/.261/.239 .500 OPS (1974-1977) 5'9", 150 lbs



Nothing out of the ordinary



other than the facts that:

Ron Gardenhire handled Punto a starting job (and I hope he does not do it again) and lobbied to sign him to a contract bigger than that of Orlando Hudson's.



Newmie will probably get (s)elected into the Twins' Hall of Fame, Punto is really on his footsteps (minus a couple of rings). Give him the rings and he will be in. Don't like the way he is playing or the fact that he starts? Don't blame him, blame the Manager of the Millennium

Is the 2010 the best team the Twins had? Part I: position players

After the Orlando Hudson free agent signing, La Velle Neal, a Twins' beat writer for the Star Tribune tweeted the following:

This is my 13th year on the beat. This is the best team the Twins have had going into spring training.

I believe that it is an astute observation that the 2010 Twins are very likely the best team the Twins had the last 13 years; however, this does not say much because most of the Twins' teams from 1997 on, when they were competing, they were competing more because of guts and intangibles rather because of the power of the team 'on paper'.

I am starting a two-series analysis to see how does the 2010 team rank (on paper) compared to probably the greatest comparable Twins' team, the 1991 World Champions. I know that statistically the 1965 team that lost the World series to the LA Dodgers was the best Twins team; however, baseball changed so much between 1965 and 2010, and I think that an 'on paper' comparison, might not be very meaningful.

Today I am comparing the position players. I am using actual 1991 statistics for the 1991 and either 2009 or career statistics (in one case) for the 2010 team. Part II will be the pitching with the same parameters.

Let the games begin:

Every Day Players:

C. Brian Harper (.311/.336/.447, 111 OPS+) vs. Joe Mauer (.365/.444/.587, 170 OPS+). Brian Harper was a pleasant surprise for the 1991 team, however Joe Mauer is arguably the best catcher ever in baseball and just entering his prime. Advantage: 2010 (large)

1B. Kent Hrbek (.284/.373/.461, 125 OPS+) vs. Justin Morneau (.274/.363/.516, 129 OPS+). Kent Hrbek's was still a fierce competitor; however, at 31, his production was a step off his peak in the mid to late 80s. Justin Morneau is 3 years removed from the MVP award (but an off-season removed from back surgery) and just entering his prime. Advantage: 2010 (slight)

2B. Chuck Knoblauch (.281/.351/.350, 91 OPS+) vs. Orlando Hudson (.283/.357/.417, 109 OPS+). Chuck Knoblauch in his rookie season, in addition to winning the Rookie of the Year award, provided a sparkplug on the top of the Twins' lineup; however at 22, his best seasons were in his future. The newest Twin, Orlando Hudson, in his prime, has been a very consistent player, esp. with the bat. Advantage: 2010

3B. Mike Pagliarulo (.279/.332/.384, 91 OPS+) vs Brendan Harris (.261/.310/.362, 77 OPS+). Pagliarulo and Harris are very similar players, but Pagliarulo has a slight edge in this matchup. It will be interesting to see how Harris will produce as an everyday player and whether someone like Valencia or Hughes might emerge as the starting third baseman for the 2010 Twins. Nick Punto is also an option here as a starter. Anvantage: 1991 (slight)

SS. Greg Gagne (.265/.310/.395, 90 OPS+) vs J.J. Hardy (career: .262/.323/.428, 95 OPS+) Here is the one instant where I am using career numbers vs. 2009 for Hardy, because I think that he will rebound from his awful 2009. Gagne was a consistent shortstop, Hardy has All-Star potential, much more power and better defense. However, he needs to rebound. Advantage: 2010 (slight)

LF. Dan Gladden (.247/.306/.356, 80 OPS+) vs Delmon Young (.284/.308/.425, 91 OPS+) I have to mention that while Dan Gladden (now a radio broadcaster) has been one of this most stern critics, Delmon Young's 2009 outmatched his 1991 in every single offensive component. Gladden was 33 (and the elder statesman of the starting lineup) and Young is entering his age 24 season. If the second half Delmon Young shows up, this will not be a comparison, but he still has to prove himself. Advantage: 2010 (slight)

RF. Shane Mack (.310/.363/.529, 140 OPS+) vs Mike Cuddyer (.276/.342/.520, 124 OPS+). Shane Mack at age 27 was entering his prime, while Mike Cuddyer at age 32 has resurrected his career with an above expectations 2009 season. Still, Mack's 1991 was one of the rare seasons for the Twins and his glove was better than Cuddyer's projects. Advantage: 1991

CF. Kirby Puckett (.319/.352/.460, 119 OPS+) vs Denard Span (.311/.392/.415, 114 OPS+). It will be unfair to compare anyone to the only Hall of Fame member of the 1991 squad and arguably the most popular Twins' player on the franchise's days in Minnesota, but (as far as OPS+ goes), 1991 was the worse campaign of Puckett's at the batter's box, since his sophomore 1985 season. As a matter of fact, other than the power numbers, Span's 2009 was close to Kirby's 1991 season. Span will be 26 in 2010 and has not yet entered his prime. Advantage: 1991 (slight)

DH. Chili Davis (.277/.385/.507, 141 OPS+) vs Jason Kubel (.300/.369/.539, 136 OPS+). Chili Davis, the (then) newly acquired switch-hitting designated hitter was absolutely the single difference maker with the bat as far as the 1991 squad went. That said, last season, Jason Kuber, who at 28 will just be entering his prime and be yet another year removed from knee surgery, surpassed all Davis' numbers other than his OBP. Kubel is poised for yet another great season, however more consistency is needed against LHP and there are not many options on the Twins' bench for right handed batters to serve as occasional DHs. Advantage: 1991


Bench
The Twins played with a 5 man bench in 1991 and will probably use a 4-man bench in 2010, so I am making a slight adjustment in the comparison

1. Gene Larkin (.286/.361/.373) and Randy Bush (.303/.401/.485; average for both 115 OPS+) vs Jim Thome (.249/.366/.481, 118 OPS+). Gene Larkin was used as a PH and to spell Kent Hrbek on first base against some left handed pitchers, where Randy Bush was playing as a right fielder against some RHP and used as a DH and PH. Jim Thome, the only bonna fide hall of famer, from the 2010 Twins (might be more, but they still needs some seasons under their belts) projects to be used as a pinch hitter, a designated hitter against RHP (when Kubel, presumably assumes a corner outfield position) and see occasional duty as a first baseman. Thome will not hit for average, is on the sunset of his career, but likely will equal the production of the Larkin/Bush duo. Advantage: even

2. Al Newman (.191/.260/.211; 30 OPS+) vs Nick Punto (.228/.337/.284, 67 OPS+). The Twins always liked "versatile, good glove players" and these two (with Denny Hocking) epitomize that fact. Regardless the feelings of most Twins' fans towards him (and these are based on the fact that he has been used as a starter and are justified, in that capacity), Nick Punto is a much better player than Al Newman ever was, both with the bat and the glove. Advantage: 2010 (large)

3. Scott Leuis (.286/.378/.417, 116 OPS+) vs Alexi Casilla (.202/.280/.259, 44 OPS+). Leuis was used a third baseman against some RHP instead of Mike Pagliarulo. Alexi Casilla (if he makes the squad, but he is the only one without options) will project to be used as a pinch runner and late inning replacement (in a scenario when Nick Punto is starting, Jim Thome pinch hits for him, reaches base and Casilla runs for Thome) with occasional starts at second base. Alexi is an enigma and the personification of inconsistency. Advantage: 1991

4. Junior Ortiz (.209/.293/.261, 52 OPS+) vs Jose Morales (.311/.381/.361, 98 OPS+). Unfortunately, Junior Ortiz' claim to fame might just be the double zero on his uniform. Jose Morales has been very consistent with the bat in both AAA and in the majors (in his rookie campaign in 2009) for the last few season. If he can keep healthy (he might not be ready to start the season because of wrist injury), he will provide a great back up catcher, who still needs to work on his catch and throw skill, but will be just entering his prime as a 27 year old in 2010. Advantage: 2010 (large).


Based on the comparisons of the 2010 squad 'on paper' vs. the actual results of the 1991 squad on the field, as far as position players go, it is clear that the 2010 squad, is better than the 1991 squad 'on paper'. What will be the verdict on the pitching staff and the overall comparison? The answer will be revealed in the next segment.

Rome is Burning: Los Angeles Dodgers Orlando Hudson interview

Interesting Interview of Orlando Hudson from last season.

Top 25 list of Twins position player prospects

Last night I published my list of the top 25 Twins' pitching prospects; without further ado, here is my list of the top 25 position player prospects in the Twins' organization.

1. Aaron Hicks, OF
2. Ben Revere, OF
3. Wilson Ramos, C
4. Angel Morales, OF
5. Danny Valencia, 3B,
6. Chris Parmalee, OF-1B
7. Miguel Sano, SS
8. Joe Benson, OF
9. Oswaldo Arcia, OF
10. Brian Dozier, SS
11. Chris Herrmann, OF
12. Brian Dinkelman, INF
13. Max Kepler-Rozycki, OF
14. Rene Tosoni, OF
15. Josmil Pinto, C-DH
16. Steve Singleton, INF
17. Derek McCallum, 2B
18. Luke Hughes, INF
19. Tobias Streich, C
20. Trevor Plouffe, SS
21. Ramon Santana, INF
22. Danny Rams, C
23. Juan Portes, OF
24. Romy Trinidad, OF
25. Steve Liddle, OF

A note: Steve Tolleson, who was claimed by the Oakland Athletics after he was removed from the 40-man roster to make room for Jim Thome, was listed as number 22.

Top 25 list of Twins pitching prospects

I thought that I would start a a countdown of the Twins' 25 best pitching and position prospects, but time and business had other thoughts...

So I present you here my take of the top 25 Twins' pitching prospects. Position players will come soon:

1. Kyle Gibson, RHP
2. Adrian Salcedo, RHP
3. Carlos Gutierrez, RHP
4. David Bromberg, RHP
5. Billy Bullock, RHP

6. B.J. Hermsen, RHP
7. Pedro Guerra, RHP
8. Anthony Slama, RHP
9. Matt Bashore, LHP
10. Tom Stuifbergen, RHP

11. Anthony Swarzak RHP
12. Tyler Robertson, LHP
13. Alex Burnett, RHP
14. Deolis Guerra, RHP
15. Ben Tootle, RHP

16. Jeff Manship, RHP
17. Rob Delaney, RHP
18. Loek Van Mil, RHP,
19. Dan Osterbroeck LHP
20. Andrei Lobanov, LHP

21. Blayne Weller, RHP
22. Brad Tippett, RHP
23. Bobby Lanigan, RHP
24. Wilson Sanchez, RHP
25. Mike McCardel, RHP

An Orlando Hudson Primer

The Twins have just signed Orlando Hudson to play second base for them and probably bat second in the lineup, between Span and Mauer. An unlikely MLB success, drafted in the 43th round on the 1997 draft, the switch hitting second baseman, made the majors in his age 24 season with the Toronto Bluejays, after posting a career .287/.354/.433 minor league line.

How probable is that Orlando Hudson, whose nickname is O-dog, to succeed with the Twins? One interesting fact is that (the now 32 year old) has a major league line of .282/.348/.431, which almost matches his minor league career line. Furthermore, he has been very consistent throughout his career.

One possible question is that this will be his age 32 season and that he might be on the declining side of his career. It looks like Orlando Hudson will replacing another Orlando (Cabrera) in the Twins' lineup, but Cabrera will be 35 years old in the next season.

Here is a table that shows various measurements in Hudson's MLB career:



It is clear that his OPS+ and OBP are steady the last few years, which is a decent indicator that he is still in his prime (and it is just an one year contract). There is a noticeable decrease in his defensive abilities, as shown by UZR/150 (despite the fact that he won the NL 2B gold glove in 2009) and he is swinging at more pitches outside the strike zone than he did earlier in his career. Despite these warning signs, he is a valuable pick up, who would most likely bat second in the lineup (getting some good pitches to hit in front of Mauer) and getting on base on a higher rate that the Twins' second basemen did last season (.302) and the second spot batters (.306).

This team is finally looking like a contender.

An interesting numerical comparison using the Baseball Reference numbers.

Here is the list of Hudson's most similar batters by age (and their similarity scores) :

25 Tim Teufel (982)
26 Tim Teufel (976)
27 Ron Belliard (957)
28 Carlos Guillen (958)
29 Marcus Giles (953)
30 Ron Belliard (951)
31 Todd Walker (953)

Interesting to see 2 previous Twins in the comparison, but I would take a Todd Walker in his prime and with a better glove that what the Twins had on second base, since the first year of Castillo.

Welcome to Minny Orlando Hudson!

Frankie goes to hollywood

will Gardy and Andy let him be?

To be determined...

Twins' Top 25 Pitching Prospect Countdown: 21-25

This off-season I am doing a list of the 50 best Twins' prospects, just I did last season. Like last season, I am dividing them into pitchers and position players. This is the first installment and will feature the pitchers ranked from 20-25, in reverse order. After I finish the top 25 countdown of the pitching prospects, I will start the countdown of the position prospects. The ages of the players listed will be their ages next season.

There we go:

25. Mike McCardell, 6'5", 220 lbs RHP, 25. Mike McCardell was drafted in the 6th round of the 2007 draft from Kutztown University and has moved fairly fast through the Twins' system in his 3 years as a pro starting with the GCL Twins (Rookie-) in 2007 and moving to New Britain (AA) after starting the season at Ft. Myers in 2009. McCardell last season (3.93 ERA, 1.213 WHI, 3.5 K/9, 4.88 K/BB with the Miracle in 94 innings, 17 starts and 4.10 ERA, 1.262 WHIP, 7.4 K/9 and 2.50 K/BB in 48.1 innings, 9 starts with the Rock Cats) was somewhat of a dissapointment compared to his previous seasons, when his WHIP was consistently under 1.000, his ERA consistently under 3 and his K/9 consistently over 9. McCardell has a two seamer and a four seamer in the high 80s, and his out pitch is a curve. He also features a change up. McCardell is a control artist who has to pitch close to the strike zone and get ahead of hitters to be successful, since he cannot blow batters away. This season, batters at the higher levels seems to lay off his curve on the dirt, leading to fewer strikeouts and more walks and hits. Another potential issue is that he might not be durable as a starter (average start just over 5.4 innings). He projects as a middle reliever in the majors. He will probably start his age 25 season next year in New Britain and might move to Rochester depending on the needs of the organization. ETA: 2012

24. Wilson Sanchez, 6'1", 175 lbs, RHP, 19. For a while, I have been claiming that the DSL Twins club has some of the best pitchers in the organization. Thanks to Adrian Salcedo's success this season north of the border in the GCL, the DSL prospects will hopefully get more recognition from the fans and the organization, before the cross the border. Wilson Sanchez was signed as an amateur free agent out of the Dominican Republic in late 2008 and he has his first professional season in 2009, where he put numbers better than what Adrian Salcedo did in 2008 at the DSL: 14 GS, 73.1 IP, 0.914 WHIP, 9.3 K/9 and 4.75 K/BB. His main pitch is a four seam fastball that sits at low to mid 90s but has a lot of deceptive movement. His secondary pitches (a slider and a change up) are works in progress at this point. Too early to project his career path, but if learns to master a change up and develop a good third pitch, he will open some eyes. He should start next season at the GCL. ETA: 2014

23. Bobby Lanigan, 6'4", 220 lbs, RHP, 23. Bobby Lanigan was drafted in the 3rd round of the 2008 draft from Adelphi University. After he spent the 2009 season in Elizabethton, he started the 2009 season in Beloit and moved up to Ft. Myers for 7 innings. He started 22 games in Beloit, accumulating a 4.52 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 7.4 K/9 and 3.52 K/BB in 123.1 innings. He possesses a low to mid 90s fastball and a change up that has not been perfected; however, he might have the best slider in the Twins' minor league system. This season in Ft. Myers he was used primarily as a reliever (he made 2 starts and 5 relieve appearances) and as a reliever he help opponents to a .175 batting average compared to a .271 (combined Beloit and Ft. Myers) as a starter. Lanigan projects as a future late inning reliever and will probably assume the role full time in Ft. Myers next season. ETA: 2013


22. Brad Tippett, 6' 1", 190 lbs, RHP, 22; Bratt Tippett is one of the many very good international signings by the Twins in the later part of this decade. He was signed as an amateur free agent from Australia in 2005 and started his career with the Twins in the GCL as an 18 year old in 2006. Brad has moved very slowly through the organization, because he has been very raw, but the patience has benefited him. He is a very polished pitcher at 21 years old, having 3 very good pitches (a high 80s fastball, a curve and an excellent change up), thrown by what Baseball America called "the best control in the organization". He repeated last season in Beloit (was promoted to Beloit mid 2008) but assumed a starting role, while compiling a 3.21 ERA, 1.068 WHIP, 6.6 K/9 and 4.28 K/BB in 146 innings. He is still about the right age for his level and will probably move to Ft. Myers next season. Depending on his development he could be a back of the rotation starter or a middle reliever. ETA: 2013


21. Blayne Weller, 6'5", 220 lbs, RHP, 20. Brayne was drafted in the 14th round of the 2008 draft from Key West High School. This season was his first in professional ball (he pitched for 1 inning at the GCL in 2008) and he dominated the GCL. He started 10 games, pitched 57 innings, accumulating a 1.58 ERA, .947 WHIP, 7.7 K/9 and 6.13 K/BB. He is not a hard thrower (his fastball is mid to low 80s), but he has excellent control, a very good curve with late braking movement, a project-able body and a deceptive 3/4 arm delivery. He will probably start 2010 in Elizabethton. He projects as a back of the rotation starter or a middle reliever. ETA: 2015.

Who is Boof Bonser?

After the Twins removed Boof Bonser from their 40-man roster to make room for the signing of Carl Pavano, they dealt him today to the Boston Red Sox for a yet to be disclosed minor league player. It might seem as a small win for the Twins, since they gained something for a player they were about to lose for nothing, but is it so? The reason stated that Bonser, and not a lesser player like Bobby Keppel, Matt Tolbert or Drew Butera, was removed from the roster was because Bonser did not accept the $550,000 contract the Twins offered him during the offseason and he was headed to arbitration. I suspect that the Twins' brass did not realize that offering him about $90,000 over the minimum would be borderline insulting. So they cut their nose to spite their face and kept Bobby Keppel instead...

Can Bonser be successful? Let's look at the facts starting with a mini scouting report:

Bonser has 4 main pitches: A fastball that averages 92 mph, but hits 95 occasionally with some movement, a plus slider and potentially one of the best curveballs in the game. He is more effective against righthanders (career .699 OPS against) and not effective against lefties (career .891 OPS against, but also .369 BABIP). His career numbers are a bit skewed because he has been both a starter and a reliever, but his future is in the bullpen. There were durability considerations (because of his weight) which made him report to the 2008 training camp several pounds lighter, but the real considerations are with his concentration and mental make up. Boof can pitch brilliantly but when he gets in trouble, he seems to fall apart (Over the Baggy has a great analysis of his pitching numbers, especially his performance with men on base.) When there is someone on first, Boof seems to be a different pitcher (career .956 OPS against in 313 PA), mainly because he looses the control of his breaking stuff and has to throw fastballs in the zone when he falls behind. His 9.5 K/9 and 3.22 K/BB career as a reliever in the major league level (despite the aforementioned problems), along with his devastating curve, project him as a dominating arm in the pen, maybe a future closer, if he deals with his concentration issues. Having a change of scenery and coaching on these respects might be what he needs, and unfortunately this situation smells a lot of the David Ortiz situation years ago...

Bonser was drafted in the 1st round of the 2000 draft by the San Fransisco Giants and came to the Twins in the AJ Pierzynski trade that also brought Joe Nathan and Fransisco Liriano to the team.

Good luck, Boof, but please not against the Twins.

It has been a while... hasn't it?

I know I should post more here but the last couple of months I was fully involved with personal endeavors.

That said, I have been using my Twitter account to quickly and easily post info I have about the Twins and Vikings (and some of it scooped all professional bloggers and sportswriters recently, namely the J.J Hardy acquisition and the 3 year extension of Brad Childress. Thank you classmates!)

With the recent news that Pavano has accepted an arbitration offer (and that contract will end up being about around $5.5 million plus incentives), the logjam in the Twins' pitching staff is getting bigger. Given that Pavano, Baker, Slowey are a lock for 3 starting positions (and I am not mentioning Blackburn for a good reason), the other 2 will be filled by 2 of Blackburn, Bonser, Liriano, Duensing, and Perkins.

Still, a large portion of the Twins' fans feel that the Twins do not have an ace (I do not subscribe to this opinion and every reader here knows that I think that a healthy Slowey is an ace pitcher). Fact: the Twins are having deficiencies in 2B and 3B. I was informed (and tweeted about a month ago, thanks to a certain unnamed classmate who works for the Marlins) that they are looking to make a deal with the Marlins for Dan Uggla. In the initial deal the Twins were looking to make a blockbuster with Ricky Nolasco as part of the deal (and giving the Marlins some pitchers). Since then (a month ago) it appears that Josh Johnson (a Twin-Cities native to boot) has been made available. The ante is upped. My gut feeling says that Bill Smith will make this trade (and, btw, I hated to see GoGo go) but this will practically result to Blackburn being a Marlin (and Perkins and at least one of the slated bullpen guys, in addition to Casilla and prospects)

Not enough words to describe it...

...so here is a video

Five Reasons the Twins will be AL Central Champions

1. Momentum. The last 2 weeks the team is batting .313/.391/.466, and the bullpen in September has a collective 2.85 ERA, 1.257 WHIP, and has allowed opponents to hit for a .678 OPS. For comparison, the last 2 weeks Detroit is batting .275/.349/.402 and for September its pen has a 4.84 ERA, 1.495 WHIP and has allowed opponents to hit for a .784 OPS. The difference in the numbers get magnified if one looks at just the last week


2. Head to Head Performance. The Twins have taken 11 of 18 from Detroit and 7 out of 9 in the Dome. As a team, the Twins against Detroit are batting .307/.372/.452 (the best against any AL team this season) and pitching to the rate of 4.21 ERA and 1.331 WHIP. Detroit, on the other hand, as a team against the Twins is hitting .266/.325/.418 and pitching with a 5.48 ERA and 1.628 WHIP (the worse against any AL team this season


3. Starting Pitchers. This season Scott Baker at home is pitching at a 1.071 WHIP rate with 7.7 K/9 and 5.67 K/BB. At the same time Rich Porcello away is pitching at a 1.365 WHIP rate with 4.3 K/9 and 1.95 K/BB. Rich Porcello on artificial turf this season is 0-3 with a 6.60 ERA, 1.867 WHIP and .991 opponents OPS.


4. The Dome. It is fair to say that the metrodome has seen the best (and loudest) crowds for 25 years all in the last 2 days: Sell outs for the last 2 weekend baseball games following by a MNF Packers visit. All 3 games victorious for the home team. This game will be in a madhouse and the fans are riding a home town victory high


5. The 1987 Karma. This team has a lot of similarities with the 1987 team including:
   • Home run hitters
   • A very low winning percentage, esp. away
   • One good young starter pitcher and a good veteran starter pitcher and several questionmarks
   • A re-engineered bullpen that started performing down the stretch
   • A reliable, but often high blood pressure -inducing closer
   It is not a coincidence that a. The last time the Twins played Detroit in a loser goes home for the winter game was in 1987 and b. that most of the 1987 team is actually in the dome the last few days. I strongly believe that the Metrodome magic will work today and this post-season as well

GO TWINS!!!!

Morneau and scientific facts about back fractures

Today Justin Morneau was reportedly diagnosed with a "stress fracture on his back", which will keep him out of the year.

There are not many details yet, but a fracture in the "back" is a fairly scary thing, and there is not such a diagnosis, btw, but I will try to give some medical and scientific context about it before we learn of more details:

A. What is a stress fracture:

A stress fracture, is a fracture (i.e. break, as in "sticks and stones will break my bones") caused by repetitive strenuous activity. These are hairline fractures (which means that they are "not all the way through" or there is no bone separation and there are no bone fragments around)

B. Anatomy of the spine



A fracture of "the back" does not mean anything... the assumption here is that Justin has a fracture in one of his vertebrae. As far as the seriousness goes, fractures on the Pedicles (the little protrusions that help the back bend but making it not bend so much so it doesn't put too much stress in the spine) are very easy to heal. Fractures on the Facet Joints that do what the Pedicles do plus hit the Pedicles above to keep the "back straight" are a little harder to heal, but still ok. On the other hand, fractures of the Verebral Bodies are much harder to heal and might cause things like slipped discs (which is really painful and that's what Joe Crede had; btw, Joe Mauer's condition was totally different, but this is another story).

Wishing the best for Justin and I will try to keep updated with information about exactly what's going on

Update 12:34 AM EDT:
Apparently the fracture is on L5 (or Lumbar 5) which is the lowest Lumber vertebra (the one where the Pedicle line points to on the right hand side of the above picture). Still no word of which part of the vertebra is affected.

New (retro) post

Yes, I have not posted here for a while, and yes I am dissatisfied with the way the Twins' things are doing these days, but, yes, they can still win the division and yes what I said here (a bit controversial to some a month or so ago; I am sure than now more people feel this way), still stands...

Goodbye Kevin Mulvey and a mini-scouting report

Kevin Mulvey is the player to be named later in the Joh Rauch trade with the Arizona Diamondbacks.

I think that it is a good trade for the Twins, since Rauch is going to be with the team for 2010 and in December the Twins would have needed to keep Mulvey in the 40-man roster to protect him from the Rule 5 draft. However there are not too many 40-many roster spots open and more than likely would have been occupied by other prospects, higher-rated than Mulvey, who also need protection. Thus, it is like losing Mulvey to the Rule 5 draft and signing Rauch as a free agent. Not bad.

Mulvey's career numbers in the minors are very ordinary: 3.54 ERA, 1.308 WHIP, 6.9 K/9 and 2.39 K/BB. This season, his second in AAA Rochester, Mulvery has regressed to: 3.93 ERA, 1.389 WHIP, 6.8 K/9 and 2.09 K/BB, which are all the way career lows at any level for the 24 year old RHP. You can read a 2007 scouting report on Mulvey here. The bottom line is: low 90s 2-seamer, slider and a curve, mixed with an occasional change up to the lefties. His fastball and slider have been considered plus pitches where his curve and changeup are works in process.

Mulvey could potentially be at the tail end of a major league rotation, however middle relief might be closer to his MLB ceiling.

Also, removing Mulvey from the 40-man roster, might allow someone like Danny Valencia to take his spot and contributing with the Twins this September