From Achter to Zarzuela: the 48 Twins players eligible for the Rule 5 draft

This week the Twins have added several players to their 40 man roster to protect them from the major league portion of the Rule 5 draft. 

The rules of eligibility are fairly convoluted and gets really complicated with the AAA and AA portion of the draft.  A primer of the Rule 5 can be found here. 

Here is the list of the Twins players (48 in all) who are not eligible for the major league portion of the Rule 5 draft.  Some of them will be placed on the AAA roster (protecting them from the AAA portion) or the AA roster (protecting them from the AA portion but exposing them to the AAA portion of the draft.)

I do not list 2013 Twins' players like Tom Stuifberger, Manuel Soliman, Cole DeVries or Jhon Goncalves who are unsigned minor league free agents and eligible for the draft regardless the team they sign.  Recently signed, or re-signed minor league free agents like Jason Bertlett or Wilkin Ramirez are eligible for the MLB portion of the draft.

Here is the list (which is subject to change based on minor league signings before the draft) :

Edit 1:  (Thanks Seth!) :  Jhonatan Arias was released late last season, Caleb Brewer retired, and Angel Morales is not re-signed, so the list gets trimmed to 45

Edit 2: After this was posted the Twins announced that they have released  Andy Leer, Rory Rhodes and  Kelvin Ortiz, further trimming the list to 42.  They also released Rick Schwarz who was not eligible for the Rule 5 draft

A.J. Achter RHP
Tim Atherton RHP
Jason Bartlett IF
James Beresford IF
Evan Bigley OF
Brad Boyer IF
Pat Dean LHP
Dallas Gallant RHP
Jose Gonzalez LHP
Mike Gonzales 1B/DH
Deolis Guerra RHP
Mark Hamburger RHP
Nate Hanson IF
Matt Hauser RHP
B.J. Hermsen RHP
Romy Jimenez OF
Jonatan Hinojosa IF
Mike Kvasnicka OF
Jermaine Mitchell OF
Lester Oliveros RHP
Ryan O'Rourke LHP
Danny Ortiz OF
Adonis Pacheco OF
Candido Pimentel IF/OF
Michael Quesada C
Wilkin Ramirez OF
Lance Ray OF
Hein Robb LHP
Nate Roberts OF
Reynaldo Rodriguez 1B
Jairo Rodriguez C
Chad Rodgers LHP
Kris Rhal OF
Rory Rhodes 1B
Dan Rohlfing C/OF
Deibinson Romero 3B
Adrian Salcedo RHP
Aaron Thompson LHP
Virgil Vasquez RHP
Dakota Watts RHP
Alex Wimmers RHP
Ezequiel Zarzuela RHP

Weekly summary of the Twins moves and targets: 11/22/2013

Here is the summary of the moves the Minnesota Twins did and the players they expressed interest in this week (the links will take you to reports).  As far as "targets" go, I am listing players that the Twins reportedly expressed interest in and not players who baseball writers and other thought that they would be a good fit or may fill a need.  The targets identified past weeks are still in the list unless they signed elsewhere.

Moves:

Acquired LHP Kris Johnson from the Pirates for RHP Duke Welker (11/19)
Added 1B Kennys Vargas to the 40-man roster (11/20)
Added LHP Logan Darnell to the 40-man roster (11/20)
Added IF Jorge Polanco  to the 40-man roster (11/20)
Added OF/1B Max Kepler to the 40-man roster (11/20)
Outrighted RHP BJ Hermsen to AAA Rochester and removed them from the 40-man roster (11/20)

Signed OF Kris Rhal to a Minor League contract with invitation to Spring Training (11/20)

The current Twins' 40-man roster is here and contains 19 pitchers and 20 position players for a total of 36 spots.

Targets:

LHP Scott Kazmir
RHP Phil Hughes

SS Erisbel Arruebarruena (Cuban defector)

RHP Gavin Floyd

LHP Chris Capuano
RHP Bronson Arroyo
LHP Johan Santana
RHP Ervin Santana
RHP Ricky Nolasco
RHP Dan Haren
RHP Scott Feldman 
RHP Mike Pelfrey
C AJ Pierzynski
C Jarrod Saltalamacchia
RHP Ubaldo Jimenez
RHP Suk-Min Yoon

Eddie Rosario speaks to the press: I tested positive for painkillers

By know everyone knows that one of the top ten Minnesota Twins' prospects, Eddie Rosario, has tested positive for a banned substance.  The first report came from Hiram Torraca in Puerto Rico  Monday afternoon,  and Peter Gammons tweeted something cryptic yesterday, a day afterwards.

There was a lot of speculation for the substance that Rosario tested positive for.  He admitted that he took something for pain.  Today, in an interview with Fernando Ribas Reyes of El Nuevo Dia, Rosario reiterated that (translation from Spanish : )

"he decided to take some pills to treat pain in his right throwing arm. He added that the banned substance he tested positive for was present in these pills. He added that the drug had the same function as what he took in 2011 to treat the pain when was hit in the face with a pitch in Class A."

So it looks like what Rosario tested positive for was likely a prescription narcotic painkiller and he was suspended under the "street drugs" ban.  Not PEDs.  And based on his comments, the same painkiller prescribed to him to treat his broken jaw in 2011.

Reportedly, MLB needs to "resolve something" before a suspension is announced.  Could it be whether he had a prescription? 

A couple more interesting details from the article:   Rosario regrets what he did, but he will appeal the suspension.   Also, he denied the rumors that the Twins have asked him to return to the outfield.  His manager in the Indians of the Puerto Rican Winter League is former second baseman Carlos Baegra who is helping him with his fielding.

More details for the suspension to follow as they come.

The Dominos are falling: The Twins acquire Kris Johnson from the Pirates

In the first trade of the 2013 off-season, the Minnesota Twins returned RHRP Duke Welker (whom they acquired in the Justin Morneau trade) to the Pittsburgh for LHSP Kris Johnson.   

Johnson (6'4", 190, 28 years old) is a former first round draft pick of the Boston Redsox (2006) and signed as a minor league free agent by the Pirates 2 years ago.   He was listed as the Redsox' fourth best pitching prospect in 2008 by Baseball America.  This season he had a breakthrough performance in Independent (AAA) league, pitching 135.7 innings, with a 2.39 ERA (3.43 FIP), winning 10 games and losing 4.  His strikeout rate was 17.1% (6.34 K/9), his walk rate 7.8% (2.85 BB/9, 2.19 K/BB).  His WHIP was 1.17 and achieved with a .279 BABIP.  

He throws a 91-94 mph fastball, a slow low 70s curve and a mid 80s change/cutter/slider type of pitch that is very effective against righties.  As is, he will be the most polished Twins' left hand starter (compared to Scott Diamond and Andrew Albers) and will likely fight for a spot in the Twins' rotation out of Spring Training.  He has relieved before, so the pen is also an option potentially.

All in all, the Twins turned a hard throwing but enigmatic (think Hoey) righty reliever to a polished lefty starter with true back of the rotation stuff who is at his prime.   I think all in all it is a good move for the Twins, since they lack depth in the minors esp. from the left side.  Johnson had a cup of coffee with the Pirates (10.3 IP) this August, which means that he has only 2 options left.

What does this mean for the Twins?  Johnson automatically goes on top of the LHP starting depth ahead of Diamond and Albers at this point, and if they do not sign someone like Scott Kazmir, he might wear a Twins' uniform next season.  Additionally, he will potentially challenge for a spot in the bullpen, especially if Thielbar regresses.  This trade gives the Twins more options than they had before (plently of hard-throwing relievers and Michael Tonkin made Duke Welker redundant in the system)

Monday Graphic in Technicolor: 135 MLB starting pitchers classified based on 2013 performance, including the MNTwins targets.

Not many words because this picture (which you might have to wait until it loads) is worth and has more than 1000.  Here are the names and 2013 numbers of all 135 MLB starting pitchers who pitched more than 100 innings.  I thought that it would be a good reference as transaction will be taking place this off-season.  The measurements included are: K/9, K/BB, K%, WHIP, BABIP, ERA, FIP, E-F (ERA-FIP),  xFIP,  tERA, SIERA, PE, xPE.   If you are not familiar with PE and xPE, more on those here.    The pitchers are color coded based on the PE/xPE standards listed here with the key being:

Where "REPL" is replacement level.   Interesting to see that there are only nice pitchers with Ace performance (PE) or potential (xPE) based on the 2013 numbers and only fifteen number 1/2 starters (including a couple of free agents) based on the same criteria.  From the 3 Twins' starters that pitched more than 110 innings, two were in the 4 to 5 starter range (Pelfrey, Correia) and one (Diamond) in the Replacement range.  The list is shorted by increasing FIP.

Without further ado:

Weekly summary of the Twins moves and targets: 11/15/2013

Here is the summary of the moves the Minnesota Twins did and the players they expressed interest in this week (the links will take you to reports).  Because it is this time of the year that produces a lot of activity, I feel that a weekly summary of this activity should be in order.  As far as "targets" go, I am listing players that the Twins reportedly expressed interest in and not players who baseball writers and other thought that they would be a good fit or may fill a need.

Since it is the first summary, I will include all November content to date:

Moves:

Re-signed C Eric Fryer   to a split (MLB/MiLB) one year $515K (MLB part) contract and kept him on their 40-man roster. (11/14)

Signed SS Jason Bartlett to a minor league contract with an invitation to spring training (11/11)

Re-signed OF Wilkin Ramirez to a minor league contract with an invitation to spring training (11/4)

Re-signed C/OF Dan Rohlfing to a minor league contract with an invitation to spring training (11/4)

Re-signed LHP Aaron Thompson to a minor league contract with an invitation to spring training (11/4)

Re-signed OF Jermain Mitchell to a minor league contract with an invitation to spring training (11/4)

Re-signed RHP Lester Oliveros to a minor league contract with an invitation to spring training (11/4)

Re-signed SS Doug Bernier to a minor league contract with an invitation to spring training (11/4)

Re-signed IF James Beresford to a minor league contract with an invitation to spring training (11/4)

Added LHP Edgar Ibarra to the 40-man roster (11/4)

Re-signed C Jairo Rodriguez to a minor league contract  (10/2013)

Re-signed 1B Reynaldo Rodriguez to a minor league contract (10/2013)

Re-signed 3B Deibinson Romero to a minor league contract (10/2013)

Re-signed RHP Deolis Guerra  to a minor league contract (10/2013)


The current Twins' 40-man roster is here and contains 19 pitchers and 17 position players for a total of 36 spots.




Targets:

RHP Bronson Arroyo
LHP Johan Santana
RHP Ervin Santana
RHP Ricky Nolasco
RHP Dan Haren
RHP Scott Feldman 
RHP Mike Pelfrey
C AJ Pierzynski
C Jarrod Saltalamacchia
RHP Ubaldo Jimenez
RHP Suk-Min Yoon

Twins SP Kevin Correia and target Bronson Arroyo: Eerie statistical similarities, but...

Twins' beat reporter Mike Berardino broke the news late Tuesday night that the Minnesota Twins were looking closely (but not yet negotiating) at the possibility of signing Bronson Arroyo, the 37 year old free agent pitcher lately of the Cincinnati Reds.

The thought that immediately came to my mind was that the last thing the Twins need is another (and older version of) Kevin Correia, given my premise that the Twins need 3 starting pitchers better than Correia to compete.  Arroyo's durability (pitched at least 199 innings every season after 2004, without ever visiting the Disabled List) and mentoring skills have been exalted, but he is thirty seven years old, with a 87 mph fastball and his numbers look so much like Kevin Correia's.   How much?  I went to look and confirm.

Here are Kevin Correia's and Bronson Arroyo's career numbers in several categories, from traditional like ERA to "advanced" like SIERA, FIP and xFIP:

Looking at the first five columns, ERA, FIP, xFIP, SIERA and K/9, it is immediately noticeable that one could not have picked any more similar pitchers.  Also interesting is the fact that both their ERA are so close to their FIP, xFIP and SIERA.   Other measurements not listed here, but are extremely alike are: career HR/FB (identical at 10.9), K% (15.3 for Arroyo and 15 for Correia), tERA (4.81 for Correia and 4.84 for Arroyo) and Hits per 9 IP (1.07 for Correia and 1.02 for Arroyo).

Alas.  The data seem to indicate that my gut feeling was correct.  They are the same pitcher.  But with one (pretty large) difference in a single measurement:  Their PE (pitching effectiveness) and xPE cannot be more different.  You can read about PE and xPE (and why I like them as simple predictive measurements) starting here and following the relative links for more detail and how those measurements were developed.  The difference (mainly walk rate differential-driven, which also reflects the changes in their WHIPs, since the hit rates are similar.) indicates that Arroyo is a much better pitcher and (unlike Correia whose numbers fall in the number 5 starter range with a PE of 7.92 and an xPE of 8.12) has been a solid number 3 type starter with a PE of 14.03 and an xPE of 13.60.  But these are career numbers. How about his age 36, 2013 season?   His PE of 17.52 and xPE of 16.13 in 2013 were even better than his total career numbers. 

A couple of additional things that have to be mentioned: 

a. Arroyo threw more than 100 pitches in 172 of his 385 games (44.7%) and 120 in 13 (3.4%).  These numbers for other starting pitchers drafted when Arroyo did (1995): Ryan Dempster 52.9% and 7.5%, Jarrod Washburn 57.7% and 3.9%, Matt Morris 48.6% and 4%, Roy Halladay 57.9% and 4.8% and Russ Ortiz 53.8% and 12.8%.  So if you are a pitch count believer, his arm has been abused less than his peers, which might indicate that there might be something in his 37 year old arm.

b.  Arroyo is a different type of a pitcher.  Here is an excellent writeup on Arroyo's stuff from yesterday by ESPN 1500's Twins' reporter Brandon Warne and here is a fangraphs interview where Arroyo describes his pitching style.  A lot of very interesting things in that piece about his approach of the game, but his admission that hard throwing pitchers have an easier time dealing with batters is golden, because I have heard the argument (which I oppose dearly) that increased velocity does not make someone a better pitcher.  Hearing it from an actual MLB veteran pitcher, is refreshing.  Arroyo also admits that he sees himself pitching up to 3 more years.

So, suddenly and after a bit of research, I feel a bit better about this.  My gut reaction was wrong:  Arroyo is better than Correia and is expected to be better than Correia in the near future.  So he can be one of the 3 pitchers better than Correia the Twins need.  If the Twins get Arroyo they need 2 more pitchers better than him, hopefully top of the rotation types.  On the other hand, he is thirty seven and I just hope that the elderly Floridian with the funky leg kick, who once was traded for Willy Mo Pena (by Twins' special assistant to the GM Wayne Krivsky nevertheless), remains healthy.

Breaking: The Minnesota Twins trying to solve Starting Pitching and the 2014 Concert gig the same time

More on the pitching part tomorrow, but here is a musical teaser...

One Starting Pitcher the Twins should target in a trade

A week ago, I looked at the available starting pitchers who are free agents and I distilled the long list to three names who the Twins should target this off-season.  The premise is that other than Alex Meyer and maybe Kyle Gibson, the Twins do not have any "sure bets" for the top of their rotation for next season and the near future that will coincide with the coming of age of uber prospects Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton.  So, in order to compete in 2014 and not to waste that future, the Twins need three starting pitchers better than Kevin Correia and Kyle Gibson (today) who will hold the 2 last spots in the Twins' rotation for 2014.  These pitchers should be young enough to be around at least for 3 years, maybe longer.   The two other criteria I used to trim the free agent list, in addition to age (31 next season or younger) were characteristics sorely missed by the Twins' rotations since Johan Santana's and Fransisco Liriano's departure and injury and eventual departure:  Hard throwing (FB 92 mph or better) and striking people out (K/9 8 or better.)  I also excluded pitchers in rehab or mostly in the minors or in foreign leagues in 2013.  From the list of 54 free agent pitchers, ended up with an "A" list of five names who meet the criteria and a "B" list of four names who meet some of the criteria. 

However it is unlikely that the Twins will get 3 free agent pitchers and there is a good opportunity to acquire a pitcher who would had been in the A list (and fairly on the top of the list), were he a free agent.  There have been thoughts ranging from rumors to dreams about the Twins trading with the Detroit Tigers for Rick Porcello (who potentially is available, and is young enough, but his fastball is too slow and does not strike enough people out to even make the "B" list) or with the Cincinnati Reds for Homer Bailey (who has enough characteristics to make the "A" list, but likely will cost someone like Alex Meyer to acquire, which defeats the purpose) or even with the Tampa Bay Rays for David Price (who would like will cost the farm, and a bit more.)

Who is the mystery pitcher and what would it take for the Twins to acquire him?

The Twins need to start thinking about selling high (without destroying the team) and buying low.  Unfortunately this front office has not been utilizing the practice well recently, from the Willingham non-trade after a career season, to the clearance sale of Frasisco Liriano (who was an ace for the Pirates last season) to the giving up of Delmon Young, Kevin Slowey and Jim Thome (whom the Philies eventually "flipped" to the Orioles for 2 C prospects.)

The proposed trade is Brian Dozier, Casey Fien and Darin Mastroianni to the Chicago Cubs for Jeff Samardzija.

Why would the Twins want this trade?

Samardzija is 29 years old, listed at 6'5" and 225 lbs, is arbitration eligible and under team control for the next 2 years (estimated 2014 award and affordable $5 million), has top of the rotation stuff (94 mph FB average and K/9 around or higher than 9 the past 3 seasons; as far as our criteria go) is durable (175 and 214 IP the last 2 seasons) and (the buy low part) has a negative W-L ratio and ERA in the 4s, which is not top of the rotation results.  Given that his xFIP is about a full point lower than his ERA, his SIERA is 3.60 and his xPE (19.8) in the number 2 starter range, his actual results are lower than his potential and were likely influenced by the Cubs' bad defense and their horrible for pitchers ballpark.

Twenty eight year old Brian Dozier is coming from a career season that has cemented him in the minds of many as the Twins' second baseman of the future who should make the Twins move 22 year old Eddie Rosario back to the outfield, but it is unlikely sustainable, thus the sell high.  Dozier's season with the bat, even though it seems Ruthian among the Twins' hitters, was a league average .726 OPS, resulting from a .244/.312/.414 slash line, that propelled his OPS to average because of SLG%.  His SLG% was influence by a ridiculous HR/FB rate that is not sustainable.  Drop is SLG% a conservative 30 points and a .244/.312/.384 (with a .696 OPS) does not look quite Ruthian.  Prime candidate for regression.  Sell high.  Twenty five year old Eduardo Escobar, who quietly had a stellar 2013 AAA campaign and is repeating it in the Venezuela Winter League, can be an immediate replacement with potential shift to short stop when Eddio Rozario is deemed ready (as soon as September of 2014).

Thirty year old Casey Fien who in the mind of some is a prime candidate for the right hand set up man (and Gardenhire used him in that role partially last season), is the poster boy for selling high; his peak was before the All-Star break (and the Twins lost the opportunity to trade him at the deadline before he regressed) but still has some sell high potential.  I have explained the reasons to sell high on Fien here then, and they stand, albeit the attractiveness slightly reduced. The Twins have plenty of pitchers including Michael Tonkin who will replace Fien with potentially better results.

Why Mastroianni?  Because the 28 year old's future with the Twins as a defensive replacement/pinch runner/fourth outfielder was nulled when the Twins acquired 25 year old Ryan Pressly and might be the sweetener for the deal for the Cubs.

Why would the Cubs want the trade?

Samardzija has shown flashed of brilliance but has not really translated the potential and expectations into actual wins.  There is pressure to win in Chicago and the clock is winding down for the new Front Office leadership to produce a winner in a division where the Reds, the Cardinals and now the Pirates provide tremendous competition.  Thus the Cubs might soon be in "win-now" mode and spending some real money in free agency.  Second base was a black hole in production last season.  Dozier who will likely sustain his high HR/FB rates in Wrigley will help close that and continue with his stellar defense.  The pen was a mess and Casey Fien, with a little bit of continuation of his luck will help them fix.  Their outfield, especially centerfield was very inconsistent.  Mastroianni can hold down centerfield in late innings for them.  Also, last but not least, all 3 players are under club control for 5 years and would cost only about league minimum the first 2, helping the Cubs focus that money towards the acquisition of costly free agents

Is it a fair trade?

On first look, 5 years (2 at minimum wage) of each of Brian Dozier, Darin Mastroianni and Casey Fien for the last 2 arbitration years of Jeff Samardzija seem like a slam dunk for the Cubs.  However, the Twins are buying low and selling high, making this a fair trade for both teams

Just in case this happens, for the Twins' fans:  The D, Z and I in Samardzija's name (whose nickname is "Shark) are silent, and pronounced Sah-MAR-jah

The two Twins' players affected the most by the Joe Mauer move to first base

Unless you did not have access to any media today, by now the permanent move of Joe Mauer to first base is a well known fact described by a ton of virtual ink.   I am not about to talk about the advantages or disadvantages of the move, but of the two players on the Twins' roster who will get affected the most.

Here is what we know:

• Joe Mauer has moved to first base where presumably he will play in 90-95% of the Twins' games, DHing occasionally.
• The Twins have 4 catchers on their 40 man roster (Ryan Doumit, Chris Herrmann, Eric Fryer, Josmil Pinto.)  
• However, since they officially expressed interest on catchers outside the organization like Jarrod Saltalamacchia, it seems that they do not see any of those 4 options as their major starting option.

What does this mean?  For whom does the bell toll?

From those four catchers on the roster, 33 year old Ryan Doumit, has done the least catching and was shut down from catching after his concussion late in the season.   Furthermore, in 2013, he posted the lowest OPS of his career and his defensive skills are suited to a full time DH.  In 2013 DH will be a position that, unless traded, 35 year old Josh Willingham is slated to posses a large amount of time, supplemented potentially by Chris Parmelee who is walking in the season as the primary (albeit defensively deficient Twins' Right Fielder.)  In addition, 25 year old Chris Herrmann has a very similar skillset position wise as Ryan Doumit does, with the exception that he is seven years younger and about to enter his prime, has less home run power but is a much better defender both in the Outfield and as a Catcher.

Thus, Ryan Doumit will see a diminished playing time with the Twins in 2014.

Moving Mauer to first base, likely means the end of 30 year old Chris Colabello's Twins' career.  Chris is a great story coming from the independent leagues in the Twins' organization in 2012 to being the 2013 minor league player of the year hitting .352/.427/.639  with 24 HRs in 89 games with the Rochester Red Wings, the Twins' AAA affiliate.  But the 30 year old who won a cup of coffee in the majors because of his AAA performance, has a lot of holes in his game both on the plate and his limited fielding ability to take a spot on the Twins' bench in 2014, with Mauer manning first base.  I think that the Twins will remove him from the 40-man roster and he will likely get claimed by another team.

Thus, Cris Colabello is the second player affected by the Mauer move.

Full 2014 Minnesota Twins Spring Training Schedule

Today the Twins have released their 2014 Spring Training Schedule.  Individual game tickets go on sale on January 11th.

Here is the schedule:

February 16 Catchers and Pitchers Reporting
February 17 Cs and Ps first workout
February 21 Team Reporting
February 22 Full Squad workout
February 28 @ Red Sox 1:05 PM
March 1 Red Sox 1:05 PM
March 2 @ Rays 1:05 PM
March 3 Blue Jays (ss) 1:05 PM
March 3 @ Orioles (ss) 1:05 PM
March 4 @ Miami 1:05 PM
March 5 Orioles 7:05 PM
March 6 Cardinals 1:05 PM
March 7 @ Pirates 1:05 PM
March 8 @ Blue Jays 1:05 PM
March 9 Phillies 1:05 PM
March 10: OFF
March 11: @ Rays 1:05 PM
March 12 Pirates 1:05 PM
March 13 Red Sox 1:05 PM
March 14 Orioles (ss) 1:05 PM
March 14 @ Yankees (ss) 1:05 PM
March 15 @ Mets 1:10 PM
March 16 Marlins 1:05 PM
March 17 @ Orioles 7:05 PM
March 18 Rays 7:05 PM
March 19 @ Cardinals 1:05 PM
March 20 @ Rays 7:05 PM
March 21 Mets 1:05 PM
March 22 Yankees 1:05 PM
March 23 @ Phillies 1:05 PM
March 24 Rays 1:05 PM
March 25 Orioles 1:05 PM
March 26 Pirates 1:05 PM
March 27 @ Red Sox 1:05 PM
March 28 Red Sox 1:05 PM
March 29 @ Red Sox 1:05 PM

So about 100 days for Catchers and Pitchers reporting....

Spring is about here.

List of Former Minnesota Twins who are Minor League Free Agents with other teams

Most Twins' fans know that Justin Morneau, Joe Nathan, Matt Garza and others, are major league free agents this off-season.   However the list of former Twins' players who are minor league free agents is a bit more obscure, probably because not many people pay much attention to the minor leagues of other teams and where former Twins are.

Without further ado, here is the list of the 25 former Twins' players who are minor league free agents with other teams, by team:

Arizona Diamondbacks: Dustin Martin OF
Atlanta Braves: Joe Beimel LHP
Baltimore Orioles: Allan de San Miguel C
Boston Red Sox: Matt Maloney LHP, Bobby Lanigan RHP
Chicago Cubs: Alex Burnett RHP
Chicago White Sox: Steve Tolleson IF
Cincinnati Reds: Loek Van Mil RHP, Yohan Pino RHP
Cleveland Indians: JC Romero LHP
Los Angeles Angels: Rob Delaney RHP
Los Angeles Dodgers: Sean Burroughs 1B, J.R. Towles C
Milwaukee Brewers: Rene Tosoni OF
New York Mets: Matt Fox RHP, Daryl Thompson RHP
New York Yankees: Randy Ruiz 1B
Philadelphia Philies: Matt Tolbert IF
Pittsburgh Pirates: David Bromberg RHP, Kyle Waldrop RHP
St. Louis Cardinals: Brock Peterson 1B
Texas Rangers: Joe Benson OF, Brendan Harris IF, Nate Robertson LHP, Yangervis Solarte IF

2013-2014 Off-season Calendar

It has been officially the Hot Stove season, or the off-season, and here is a list of important dates to keep in mind, including the annual award announcements that take place next week:

November 10
Outright waivers secured on or after September 1 expire at 5 p.m. ET

November 11
BBWAA Jackie Robinson Rookies of the Year
Last date for XX(B) players to accept qualifying offer from former club
New waiver period begins
Sporting News Executive of the Year named

November 11-13
GM and Owners Meetings, Orlando, FL.

November 12
BBWAA Managers of the Year

November 13
BBWAA Cy Young Awards

November 14
BBWAA Most Valuable Player Awards

November 18
Last date to ask outright waivers on an injured player

November 20
Last date to outright an injured player to the Minor Leagues
Reserve lists for all Major and Minor League levels filed

December 2
Tender deadline for arbitration-eligible players

December 5
Last date to request outright waivers to assign player prior to Rule 5 Draft

December 9
Last date to outright a player prior to Rule 5 Draft

December 9-12
Winter Meetings (Orlando, FL)
GIBBY (Greatness in Baseball Yearly) Awards

December 12
Rule 5 Draft

March 22-23
Opening Series in Sydney, Australia: Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks

January 14 
Salary arbitration filing.

January 17
Salary arbitration figures exchanged.

February 1-21 
Salary arbitration hearings - St. Petersburg, Florida.

February 13 
Voluntary reporting date for pitchers, catchers and injured players.

February 18 
Voluntary reporting date for other players.

February 25 
Mandatory reporting date.

March 12 
Last day to place a player on unconditional release waivers and pay thirty
days termination pay instead of forty-five days.

March 22-23 
Los Angeles Dodgers versus Arizona Diamondbacks - Sydney, Australia.

March 26 
Last day to request unconditional release waivers on a player without
having to pay the full salary for the 2014 season.

March 30
Opening Night

March 31
Opening Day

Naming names: The three starting pitchers the Minnesota Twins should sign in free agency

It is not a secret, that the biggest problem the Minnesota Twins had in the past few woeful season, as far as players are concerned, is the lack of a reliable rotation.   While a lot of fans are looking at 2015 or 2016 as the potential contenting point for the Twins, when Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton "come to age", the dirty secret is that there are not (other than Alex Meyer and potentially Kyle Gibson above A level) any sure bets for top of the rotation pitchers in the system, which, almost certainly would guarantee mediocrity at best for the middle of this decade.

This off-season the Twins have an opportunity to remediate this via free agency and, in addition to 2015 and beyond, be competitive in 2014.  In order to do so, the Twins would need to sign at least 3 pitchers better than Kevin Correia who can be a place holder for Alex Meyer, in his last contract year and with Kyle Gibson would be the 2 remaining parts of the Twins' rotation in 2014.   Who should those three new pitchers be?   What would it take to sign them?    Remember, we are not looking only for 2014, but we are looking beyond.  And we are looking for numbers one, two and three in the Twins' rotation, allowing Gibson to be number four and Correia number five, which would result in a competitive rotation.   Potentially one of these positions could come internally:  Alex Meyer might be one out of Spring Training;  I have not given up on Vance Worley because of an awful injury, out-of-shapeness and bad luck (BABIP) induced, age 25 season;  and nobody knows whether Samuel Deduno might take the next step.

What characteristics those free agents should have?

If you look at the measurable characteristics the top pitchers have, two jump out right away, and these 2 happen to be the exact ones the Twins' rotation has been lacking:

a. Hard throwing.   Average Fastball velocity in MLB is 92 mph, including relievers
b. Missing bats.   Average K/9 is around 7 in the majors, so we are looking for top of the rotation players with K/9 above 8.

Only 3 Minnesota Twins starting pitchers, both left-handed, since PitchF/X was introduced allowing the measurement of pitch velocities, satisfied that criteria:  Johan Santana (2004, 2005, 2006) and  Fransisco Liriano (2005, 2006, 2010).


And because of the long-term vision (we are looking for players who can get 3+1 or 4+1 contacts and would be with the team for the biggest part of the decade when Sano and Buxton come to age) the Twins need to look at pitchers who would at mostly be 31 years old in 2014, so they do not pay for a pitcher's declining seasons.   One can argue that an older pitcher can be signed in an one or two year contract as a place holder for someone like Kohl Steward, which is a valid argument, but at this point it does not guarantee competitiveness, since Kohl Steward is not a sure bet now.

Here are the 3 criteria (all measurable) the Twins should look for in a free agent:

a. Average FB velocity >= 92 mph
b. K/9 >= 8
c. Age in 2014 season =< 31

Here is a list of all 2014 free agent starting pitchers, from MLB trade rumors, alphabetically and with 2014 season ages in parenthesis:

Alfredo Aceves (31)
Bronson Arroyo (37)
Scott Baker (32)
Erik Bedard (35)
Travis Blackley (31)
A.J. Burnett (37)
Chris Capuano (35)
Chris Carpenter (39)
Bruce Chen (37)
Bartolo Colon (41)
Scott Feldman (30)
Gavin Floyd (31)
Jeff Francis (33)
Freddy Garcia (37)
Jon Garland (34)
Matt Garza (30)
Chad Gaudin (31)
Roy Halladay (37)
Jason Hammel (31)
Aaron Harang (36)
Dan Haren (33)
Roberto Hernandez (33)
Tim Hudson (38)
Phil Hughes (28)
Ubaldo Jimenez (30)
Josh Johnson (30)
Jair Jurrjens (28)
Jeff Karstens (31)
Scott Kazmir (30)
Hiroki Kuroda (39)
John Lannan (29)
Wade LeBlanc (29)
Jon Lester (30)
Colby Lewis (34)
Ted Lilly (38)
Paul Maholm (32)
Shaun Marcum (32)
Jason Marquis (35)
Daisuke Matsuzaka (33)
James McDonald (29)
Randy Messenger (32)
Ricky Nolasco (31)
Sean O'Sullivan (26)
Roy Oswalt (35)
Mike Pelfrey (30)
Greg Reynolds (28)
Clayton Richard (30)
Ervin Santana (31)
Johan Santana (34)
Joe Saunders (33)
Kevin Slowey (30)
Masahiro Tanaka (25)
Jason Vargas (31)
Ryan Vogelsong (36)

Trimming the list by age, and listing K/9 and average FB velocity for both 2012 and 2013, disqualifying pitchers who (because we are looking mostly for "sure bets".  Reclamation projects and bargains could fit for one of these positions, but are out of scope for this exercise.)  :

a. pitched less than 50 innings due to injury in 2013
b. pitched mostly in the pen in 2013
c. pitched mostly in minor or foreign leagues in 2013 

we have this list (with K/9 and FB velocity fitting the criteria indicated in green, if fit complete or in yellow if fit when rounded up to no decimals) :

The "A" list (at least two pitchers should be from this list) :

Matt Garza, RHP, 30.  Difficult to see a Garza reunion with Ron Gardenhire and Rick Anderson still on the Twins' staff.  Documented personality conflicts when with the Twins

Ubaldo Jimenez, RHP, 30. Received a qualifying offer, which means the Twins will have to surrender their second round pick to sign him.  Price will be high because of monster second half.

Josh Johnson, RHP, 30.  No qualifying offers.  Health and performance consideration (if one looks at W-L and ERA; but solid xFIP and peripherals) will drop the price

Scott Kazmir, LHP, 30.  The only lefty in the list.  No qualifying offer.  Great year suggests that recovered from injury nicely

Edinson Volquez, RHP, 30 .  No qualifying offer.  Very quietly made it to the list.  A sleeper, potentially low cost signing


The "B" list (potentially one pitcher should be from this list, but there are questions) :

Phil Hughes (28)  He is intriguing; close with the K/9.  Still in early prime.  Can be the one from this group to target

Jon Lester (30) Will likely stay with the Red Sox.  Expensive.  Lots of people think of him as an "A list" pitcher but is not.

Mike Pelfrey (30)  Interesting to see him in the list, but his K/9 is not in the ball park.  Can he get his K/9 up?  Great fit in the Twins' club house.  Should the Twins take another flier with Pelfrey another year away from TJ surgery?

 Ervin Santana (31) Expensive.  Lots of people think of him as an "A list" pitcher but is not.   Received a qualifying offer. Stay away for the money.  More expensive that all the pitchers in the A list, other than Jimenez.


The rest:

Gaudin was a reliever in 2012 when he met the criteria.  Nolasco and Vargas are thought to belong in the "A list" potentially.  They do not.

Who are the three starting pitchers the Minnesota Twins should sign in 2013, in order to be competitive in 2014 and beyond?  They are:

Josh Johnson
Scott Kazmir
Edinson Volquez

Can they sign all three?  The short answer is "yes", but I will examine the Twins' budget in another post...

Clip of the Newest Twin Duke Welker pitching

Ron Gardenhire video countdown: 0

Ron Gardenhire's contract with the Minnesota Twins runs out, and this ends the video count down in celebration of the Manager of the Millennium's past with the Twins. He managed the Twins to consecutive 99, 96 and 96 loss seasons, and it is clear a change is needed for this team to be competitive again. To this effect:

Day 0: He Gone

Ron Gardenhire video countdown: 1

One game left until manager Ron Gardenhire's contract with the Minnesota Twins runs out, and in celebration of the Manager of the Millennium's past with the Twins, I will be counting down the days with videos from his time with the Twins.


Day 1: That's what our organization is all about & we are proud the way we do things & I don't understand a word he's saying:

Ron Gardenhire video countdown: 2

Two days left until manager Ron Gardenhire's contract with the Minnesota Twins runs out, and in celebration of the Manager of the Millennium's past with the Twins, I will be counting down the days with videos from his time with the Twins.

Day 2: How far is all the way?

Ron Gardenhire video countdown: 3

Three days left until manager Ron Gardenhire's contract with the Minnesota Twins runs out, and in celebration of the Manager of the Millenium's past with the Twins, I will be counting down the days with videos from his time with the Twins.


Day 3: That's the last time I'll let you pinch hit:

Ron Gardenhire video countdown: 4

Four days left until manager Ron Gardenhire's contract with the Minnesota Twins runs out, and in celebration of the Manager of the Millenium's past with the Twins, I will be counting down the days with videos from his time with the Twins.

Day 4: That's the way it's got to work, I don't care what the Yankees do: