2013 Twins Spring Training Battle Dashboard 2.0, pre first cuts edition

It is already two weeks into Spring Training games for the Twins, so it is time for the second version of the dashboards.   You can find all 2013 Spring Training dashboards here, for reference.

Again, you can find explanations of the measures and the colors of the dashboards to quantify Spring Training performance of the combatants in both the position player and pitching battles in these two links.   

The dashboard includes last night's game.

Here is the position player dashboard:

Few Observations:

• Aaron Hicks and Eddie Rosario have been given many accolades, but for me the surprise of Spring Training for the Twins so far has been Danny Rohlfing, the Twins' 23 year old AA catcher who for all practical purposes has been regarded as organizational depth.  However, with his performance in front of the Twins' brass, added to his excellent defense at catcher and versatility (can play 1B and OF as well), he has to be into the conversation regarding Twins' Catcher prospects
• Aaron Hicks has taken the lead for the Center Field starter position
• The other 2 OF positions (RF and bench) are wide open, with Darin Mastroianni returning today from a hamstring injury-caused week's hiatus and Wilkin Ramirez performing consistently well and steadily leading Chris Parmelee who really has not found himself and is also ailing.   I would not be surprised if Parmelee started the season in AAA.
• The infield battle and the bench battles are wide open.  None of the infielders fighting for the 2 positions has been ahead of the pack at this time.

Here is the pitcher dashboard:

Few Observations:

• He is starting today again, but Cole DeVries has been pretty consistent and effective as a starter so far,  and I think that he is on his way to earn either a starter or the long reliever position, depending on other pitcher's health
• Speaking of health, despite what it has been reported, I will be surprised if Anthony Swarzak, Rafael Perez and Scott Diamond start the season in Minnesota on April fools'
• PJ Walters' performance has been pretty steady as well, but unlike DeVries, he has been used as a reliever and been facing lesser competition.  He still has possibilities for a pen or even a starting role, based on health
• Kyle Gibson has had ups and one horrible game.  The jury is still out.
• Alex Burnett and Tyler Robertson have been as disappointing on the pitching side as Chris Parmelee on the position player side.  I would not be surprised if they started the season in AAA.
• Ryan Pressly, the Twins' Rule 5 pick has been the most consistent reliever; other than a horrid game, Tim Wood has been great; Mike Tonkin has been surprising good and Josh Roenicke had ups and downs, but he has been trending up.  Could these four pitchers win the four bullpen spots?  Time will tell, but it will be a huge surprise if Tonkin does, since the highest level of play he saw has been a half season at Fort Myers with the Miracle.

The next version will be after the cuts.  Speaking of the cuts, I think that:  Bryan Augenstein, BJ Hermsen, Trevor May and Alex Meyer from the pitchers and Kyle Knudson and maybe James Beresford might be it for position players.   The World Baseball Classic has decimated the numbers of the Twins position players available,make it hard to field 2 teams in split squad games, so I do not foresee many position player cuts before other Twins return from the WBC.

Twins pitching for the Minnesota Twins? Kevin Correia and Tim Wood

Because most Minnesota Twins' fans have not seen what these guys look like, let me know if you can tell them apart.

Here is one:

 

And here is the other:

Who is who?  (don't cheat and look up numbers....)

 

2013 Twins Spring Training Battle Dashboard: Version 1

With the Twins' Spring Training about half a month old and eight official games in the books, it is about time that I start posting these dashboards again keeping track of how the players who are batting for positions are doing.   It might seem that Spring Training has been going on for a while, and it has because of the World Baseball Classic.  For comparison, last year the first Twins' game of Spring Training was March 3rd.   

I have previously outlined the potential battles for position players as:

• 3 outfield positions, including a back up
• 2 infield positions, including a back up 
• 1 additional bench bat that would be a third Catcher (Mr Butera for example) or a bat off the bench/DH (like Chris Colabello) or an additional infielder or outfielder.

Also indicated that I consider the following players as locks (so I am not tracking them) :

Jamey Carroll
Ryan Doumit
Joe Mauer
Justin Morneau
Trevor Plouffe and
Josh Willingham

and in the same piece, I indicated that the battles for pitchers were for one to three starting positions (depending on Scott Diamond's and Mike Pelfrey's health) and at least four bullpen spots; I consider as locks here (thus not tracked), in addition to the 2 aforementioned if healthy:

Kevin Correia
Vance Worley

Jared Burton
Brian Duensing
Glen Perkins

The ideas behind the mechanics of the dashboards to quantify Spring Training performance of the combatants in both the position player and pitching battles is explained in these two links.

For the pitchers, I quantify using  a measurement created by Bill James more than a decade ago called "Game Score".  It is calculated as follows:

You start with 50 points for each pitcher.
Add 1 point for each out.
Add 1 point for each strikeout.
Subtract 2 points for each hit.
Subtract 4 points for each earned run.
Subtract 2 points for each unearned run.
Subtract 1 point for each walk.
There is a point bonus for pitching more than 4 innings as well, adding 2 points for each IP after the 4th, but this is not too applicable here.

Game Scored of 49-51 are "average" (yellow),
everything higher than 51 "above average" (green),
and everything below 49 "below average" (red).

The pitchers are broken down as "starters" and "relievers" but it is understandable that starters are candidates to make the teams as relievers.

For position players, I devised a similar metric that goes like this:

Start with 0 points (unlike the pitching Game Score that starts with 50)
Add 1 point for each Run, RBI, 2B, SB, BB, and HBP recorded.
Add 2.5 for each hit, 3 for each 3B and 4 for each HR.
Subtract 1 for each CS and GIDP,
subtract 1 for each error,
for catchers add 1 for each CS
Subtract 0.2 for each SO and 0.5 for each AB.

Again, as in the Pitching Battle Dashboard, the Position Player Battle Dashboard is color-coded based on average, above average and below average performances, where:

Average is Batting Game Score between 0 and 2
Above average is Batting Game Score higher than 2
Below average is Batting Game Score less than 0

Without further ado (and no comments)  here is the Dashboard for the Twins' position players:

and here for the pitchers:

There is still many games to be played and these will be changing in pretty much daily basis.   I will publish the next installment in few days.

Can this be the Twins' opening day starter?

Based on being the Spring Training opening day starter? See him answer this question for himself below:

Tracking the 2013 Twins' Spring Training Roster Battles

A Light exists in Spring
Not present on the Year
At any other period —
When March is scarcely here

-Emily Dickinson

Spring Training time is one of my favorite baseball times during the season (or is it "off-season", or "pre-season"?)This is the time where all the teams have the same record and all 60 players or so who are invited in the Major League camp hope that they will be part of the major league roster. Some positions in the Twins' 25-man roster are chiseled in marble; however some are written in pensil, and some others are wide open for the taking. Last season, I used dashboards to quantify Spring Training performance of the combatants in both the position player and pitching battles. I am planning on doing the same this Spring training, but before starting quantifying, I'd like to qualify and see what potential battles there might this Spring.

Position Players (13)

The following six players (barring injuries and late trades) are locks to stay in the Twins' 25-man roster (all lists alphabetically) :

Jamey Carroll
Ryan Doumit
Joe Mauer
Justin Morneau
Trevor Plouffe and
Josh Willingham.

Drew Butera
Darin Mastroianni and
Chris Parmelee

are penciled in and only a horrible appearance might derail them coming up North, but they are not 100% locks (they are in the 80% range)so I will keep track of their performance.

The potential battles in the Twins' 2013 Spring Training as far as position players go are for the following seven positions:

3 outfield positions, including a back up
2 infield positions, including a back up
and one additional bench bat that would be a third Catcher (Mr Butera for example) or a bat off the bench/DH (like Chris Colabello) or an additional infielder or outfielder.

Pitchers (12)

I do assume that the Twins will take 13 position players and 12 pitchers; however, potentially they will forgo the bench bat or the third catcher and go with 13 pitchers. Time will tell.

The following two starters and three relievers are pretty much locks:

Kevin Correia
Vance Worley

Jared Burton
Brian Duensing
Glen Perkins

The following two starters are locks, other than the fact that might not be ready:

Scott Diamond
Mike Pelfrey

So there are battles from one to three starting positions and at least four bullpen spots.

Potentially up to seven position player and seven pitcher spots on the 2013 Opening Day Twins 25-man roster will be decided this Spring, which is more than in the recent seasons, at least on paper... Interesting times indeed and sure to make this Spring more fun to watch closely.

The Minnesota Twins: "This year we got something to prove"

Remembering the last Twins' winning team...

Summary of the Twins' Off-Season... in Latin

With all players reporting to the Twins' Spring Training camp tomorrow, it is about time to discuss my feelings about the Twins' off-season.  I do understand that there has been a lot of discussion on it, with pros and cons mentioned and moves analyzed and criticized;  however, nothing has been written in Latin.

So there is my summary of the Twins' off-season, in Latin:

Post annus horribilis, ad meliora a falsis principiis proficisci, a bene placito arduus ad solem, ab absurdo emi emeritus aetat astra per alas porci ad hominem ad valorem. Aut vincere aut mori; ave atque vale.

Actus me invito factus non est meus actus; acta est fabula plaudite; alea iacta est. Amicus Terry, sed magis amica veritas. Asinus asinum fricat, caetera desunt.
 
Ave Imperator, morituri te salutant. Illegitimi non carborundum. Carpe vinum. Cras es Noster. Faber est suae quisque fortunae.

Twins announce the 2013 promotions (and they are good)

The Minnesota Twins have announced the 2013 promotional give aways, and the quality and quantity seems to have increased.  Maybe they hope to get people in the ballpark this way.  Here is the list:

April 1, 3 and 4:  Twins magnet schedule presented by Country Hearth
April 12, 13 and 14: Twins poster schedule presented by the Star Tribune
April 15:  Diversity Day T-shirt presented by the Prairie Island Indian Community
April 16 and 17:  Twins drawstring bag presented by MLB Network
April 22:  Twins rain gauge presented by Pentair
April 25:  Glen Perkins fishing lure presented by 96.3 K-TWIN
April 27:  Twins cowboy hat presented by WE Fest
April 28:  Josh Willingham Silver Slugger bat presented by Sports Authority
May 10:  Josh Willing“hammer” bobblehead presented by U.S. Bank
May 11:  Twins cap presented by DQ
May 12:  Women's sun hat presented by Pepsi
May 14:  Twins fleece blanket presented by Delta Air Lines
May 18:  LED energy efficient light bulb presented by Xcel Energy
May 30: 1948 St. Paul Saints pennant
June 2:  Josh Willingham kid’s jersey presented by U.S. Bank
June 14:  Eddie Guardado and Tom Mee HOF collector’s pins presented by Fisher Nuts
June 16: Twins BBQ spatula
July 19:  Mauer/Morneau double bobble
August 3: Twins cap presented by DQ
Aug. 16: Aviator sunglasses and shell necklaces presented by The Beaches of Fort Myers and Sanibel on Lee County Day
August 17 and 18: Back to  school items presented by Target
Sept. 13: Twins blaze orange camouflage cap presented by Pepsi (), to-be-announced
Sept. 27 and 28: Fan Appreciation Weekend items
Sept. 29: Kids Appreciation Day item 

2013 Spring Training Guide to Fort Myers Part III: The Food

This is my second annual food guide to Fort Myers and the third and last in the series of the 2013 Guides to Fort Myers that include the logistics guide and the baseball guide.  The first was more of a culinary guide, pointing out what are the local foods, and pointing out places you can sample them.  That guide is still very relevant and you can find it here.  This one is a little different than last year's.  It is a more traditional restaurant guide. La Velle Neal has been publishing restaurant guides to Fort Myers on pretty much annual basis now (you can find his 2012 guide here)

This guide by no means try to compete with La Velle's.  And LEN3 and I come from different food perspectives and biases:  I do not eat red meat or fowl, so you shall not see any barbeque places, steakhouses or smokehouses here because I do not go to those places usually.  I do eat seafood, so there is a lot of this listed here.  The other thing I am doing, is trying to keep the list to places that are close to Hammond Stadium and the Twins' training complex.   Usually, when I am there, I have breakfast at my hotel, then at the ballparks until after the game is done and then out for dinner.  I usually have "lunch" at the ballpark.  And at the end, if you care to read that long, I will list the Twins' players 2 favorite hangouts.  This guide is broken down by restaurant type.

American:

Clancy's 11481 McGregor Blvd - Ft. Myers, FL (http://www.clanceysrestaurant.com/) Typical american fair. Solid food and good prices. Lots of sandwiches as well.  One of the few places you can actually have Triggerfish (by name). Try it, you'd like it. Lots of big burgers as well.

Fancy's Southern Cafe  8890 Salrose Lane, Fort Myers, FL (http://fancyssoutherncafe.com/)  True southern comfort food.  Excellent shrimp and grits, fried okra, fried green tomatoes and deep fried cheese grits.  And a slew of other Southern comfort food specials.  This place has something for everyone and really worth a visit.  Good prices too.

The Veranda. 2122 2nd St, Fort Myers, FL  (http://www.verandarestaurant.com/). Exactly what you will expect from an American/Continental dinning place with southern influences in Florida.  Great cuisine, huge entrees, semi-formal atmosphere and prices in the $30s unless you go the tapas way, chosing from a variety of their apperizers.  Blue Crab Cake, Southern Grit Cakes, Pan seared Scallops and Artichoke Fritters (all around $10) highly recommended from the appetizer menu.  You cannot go wrong with any entree item, but it is a lot of food.


Latin American:

El Patio Restaurant 4444 Cleveland Ave Fort Myers, FL  Peruvian.  And if you have never had Peruvian food, this restaurant will be a good exuse to try.  Awesome variety and prices (most entrees are under $10) and great flavor.  This is the real deal.  Try the seafood ceviche or one of the surf and turf mixes.


El Gaucho Inca 4391 Colonial Blvd, Fort Myers, FL (http://www.elgauchoinca.com/) "Peruvian, Argentinan and Italian" food.  Fancy Tango and dancing shows during dinner, the food is pretty interesting, if you like meat.  If you don't there are better choices.  The "Italian" part is because they serve pasta dishes.  Nothing Italian to them. Stay away from those.  The Argentinean dishes are pretty authentic, but the Peruvian derived...

Super Tacos 535 Pine Island Road, (North) Fort Myers, FL (http://supertacos.net/)  This is kind of far from the ballpark, but it is the best Mexican food place in Fort Myers, and this is why it is here.  Fresh fresh ingredients, large portions and great prices.  Their fish tacos are some of the best and at $2.99 per, an incredible value.  A variety of fairly authentic Mexican fare.


Asian:

Daruma Japanese Steak House (http://www.darumarestaurant.com/) 13499 S Cleveland Ave  Fort Myers, FL . Pretty solid but expensive Japanese fare.  On the Teppanyaki side of the house there is a great variety and great flavor.  Sushi is good, if overimaginative.  Kind of americanized flavors, but this is true of most asian places these days.  A ton of Teppan combinations, something for everyone.  Large wine and cocktail list.  Try the Oysters Tempura appetizer.  Total Japanese/Southern fusion.

Mr. Mees 5100 S. Cleveland Ave. Ft. Myers, FL (http://www.mrmees.com/index.htm).  Pan-Asian food (Japanese, Korean, Thai) and sushi.  By far my favorite Asian food place in Fort Myers.  Authentic Thai and Korean dishes and excellent sushi.  Try the Bi Bim Bop (they make it vegetarian or with a fried egg, if you ask) or any of the Yum dishes. Both of the Bin Daduk dishes (pork & kimchee or seafood) are excellent appetizers.

Osaka 16078 San Carlos Blvd. For Myers, FL (http://osakafortmyers.com/index.html)  The name is kind of misleading. It in a Thai place that also offers Japanese and Sushi (because Japanese and sushi are popular these days.)  Their Thai food is excellent.  Try any of the Yum or the noodle dishes.  Sushi and soups are good also.  A vast list of appetizers, can make this a good tapas/dim sum dinner place.


European/Mediterranean/French:


Blue Windows French Bistro. 15250 S. Tamiami Trail, Fort Myers, FL (http://www.mybluewindows.com/)  Fine French Bistro Food.  Four course Prix Fixe menu that changes nightly based on best available local foods for about $50 a person.  Also offers a variety of tasting menus and wine pairings.  Traditional a la carte continental French courses as well.  Extensive wine list.  Best place to burn $200 for a dinner for 2 in Fort Myers. On the other hand, that $200 is about 8 Twins' tickets.  Priorities.


Cibo  12901 Mcgregor Blvd, Ste 17, Fort Myers, FL  (http://cibofortmyers.com/)  Upscale Italian.  Extensive Wine list. Extensive Antipasto list. You can potentially have a great traditional Italian meal or an excellent Tapas dinner.

Sasse's 3651 Evans Avenue  Fort Myers, FL (http://www.sassesfortmyers.com/) Italian with continental flair.  Menu changes based on seasonal availability.  Mid-priced, even offers things like Pizza.  Gluten-free menu on request.  Their fish/seafood soup is awesome, if you like fish of course.


Seafood:


Pawnbroker 13451 - 16 McGregor Blvd, Fort Myers, FL  (http://www.prawnbroker.com/)  Same Strip Mall as Blu Sushi (which will be listed later).  Fresh seafood and a seafood counter selling fresh seafood next to it.  Bit old fashion but good traditional seafood. This is the kind of place that your grandma will take you and your significant other out.  And that happens a lot in that place.  Food is really really fresh, so enjoy.  You might have to overlook the fact that you are the youngest person in the place. Even if you are in your 40s.

Maria's Old Florida Restaurant; 17979 San Carlos Boulevard, Fort Myers, FL Listed as seafood here, but it really is a Creole (and some Cajun) fusion restaurant that incorporates a lot of seafood in their dishes. Interesting dishes like Cajun Shepard's Pie and Crawfish Enchiladas.

Clam Bake 16520 S Tamiami Trl Ste 10, Fort Myers, FL   (http://clambakefortmyers.com/)  "Authentic New England Seafood".  Hole in the wall place, family operated by former Rhode Islanders.  They feature a variety of New England seafood like Stuffed Quahog, Clam Bakes, fried Oysters, Clams, Scallops and Shrimp, Clam Chowder, Steamed Lobster and a whole bunch of seafood sandwiches including Lobster Roll.  Informal, inexpensive and great food.

Blue Pointe Oyster Bar & Seafood Grill, 13499 SE Cleveland Ave Suite 141, Fort Myers, FL  (http://www.bluepointerestaurant.com/).  Traditional upscale great seafood place.  Fresh seafood, great preparations.  Grab one of the fish in the fish of the day list and get it prepared your way and you will do no wrong.  Extensive wine and raw bar list. You know those seafood places that have that "steakhouse feel"?  This is one of them.  If this is your style, this one is a winner.  My only complaint (and this is nitpicking) is that they do not use lots of local fish, but prefer northern fish.

3 Fishermen Seafood 5100 S. Cleveland Ave. Ft. Myers, FL (same strip mall as Mr. Mees - actually a couple doors down.) (http://www.threefishermenseafood.com/) casual, inexpensive and great food.  A Tip: Even if there is not in the menu (they have it as one of their rotating specials), ask for grilled grouper tacos.  You will not regret it.  Big enough to fit two or a hungry teenager.  Great shimp dishes and their signature is the Captain Paul’s Grouper. Great smoked fish dip as well.  I really like this place.
 
Local Hangouts:

CRaVE: 12901 McGregor Boulevard, Fort Myers, FL (http://cravemenu.com/) not to be confused with the American Bistro chain with the same name.  Fresh, local and organic food.  Bistro feel.  Great appetizers and well known for their sandwiches and salads.  Lots of interesting takes on confort food like Meatloaf, Shepherd's Pie, Pot Roast and Pot Pie.  Great Omelets for breakfast.

Two Meatballs in the Kitchen. 8890 Salrose Ln Fort Myers, FL (http://www.2meatballs.com/)  Typical Northeast Italian Food and Pizza. Plentiful sizes, huge variety, usually packed.  Part of a local trifecto of restaurants that includes Taste of New York and Bella Rosa, the Two Meatballs is the most casual and busy of the 3. If you crave Northeast italian-american food, this is your place.

Pincher's Crab Shack  15271 McGregor Boulevard Fort Myers, FL (http://www.pincherscrabshack.com/)  Seafood but I am listing it here because this place rocks on happy hour.  Indoor-outdoor seating, great fresh food, very good beer list and lots of mixed drinks.  Grouper tacos are really awesome here.  Very close to the ballpark as well.






Chains of note:

Bahama Breeze: 14701 S Tamiami Trl, Fort Myers, FL  (http://www.bahamabreeze.com/)
Caribbean-inspired food.  Large variety of appetizers and small plates.  Go for the fresh fish and make sure that it is something that exists in FL, like Grouper or Snapper, otherwise pass on the Mahi and farmed Salmon.  Bunch of cocktails too.  It's ok, nothing spectacular, but interesting variety of food.  Lots of rum-based drinks, if you are into that kind of thing.



Cantina Laredo 5200 Big Pine Way, Fort Myers, FL (http://www.cantinalaredo.com/) Their Motto is "Modern Mexican" and that it is.  And it has solid food.  But expensive food.  Tex Mex and flavorful.  Lots of people love it.  For me it is to Mexican what PF Chang's (which is also in Fort Myers, I think) is to Chinese.

Grimaldi's Coal Brick-Oven Pizzeria. 13499 S Cleveland Ave Fort Myers, FL (http://www.grimaldispizzeria.com/) As close to authentic New York style pizza as you can get in Florida because it started in Brooklyn.  Small chain. Definitely worth a look if you are into pizza. Simple, traditional, nothing fusion here. 

Sweet Tomatoes: 14080 South Tamiami Trail, Fort Myers, FL (http://www.souplantation.com/)
Soup, Pasta and Salad bar.  Fresh budget food with a lot of choices.

Pizza Fusion 12901 McGregor Blvd. Fort Myers, FL (http://pizzafusion.com/)  This is the exact opposite of Grimaldi's.  Organic crusts, organic toppings, interesting varieties and pizzas that look like flat breads (long and skinny.)  Great flavors.  Try the pear and gorgonzola, if you look for something different.


The best places to rub shoulders with Twins' major and minor leaguers:

As far as young single major leaguers and AAA players (like Luke Hughes, Danny Valencia, Drew Butera etc last season) and bonus-babies go, it is Blu Sushi 13451 McGregor Blvd Fort Myers, FL  (http://www.blusushi.com/).  Overimaginitive Sushi and Martini menu, really caters to the 20-something crowd.  Fresh and flavorful.  And Hip Crowd.

As far as older players with families and younger minor leaguers go, it is Patinella's Chicken Grill  6810 Shoppes At Plantation Dr Fort Myers, FL (http://www.patinellaschickengrill.com/) or "The Chicken Grill" on Plantation Shoppes Drive. They offer grilled cut chicken on rice bowls with a bunch of veggies in different flavors or flatbread sandwiches. Pretty healthy fare for ballplayers.

A note about beer and wine:

In Florida beer and wine can be sold in places like gas stations and grocery stores.  Most drug stores have adjunct liquer stores that sell the aforementioned plus liquor.  The best beer variety is in grocery stores, and from those Publix tends to have more microbrews than the others.  Because of the competition, the prices are fairly good, on the $7-10 range for a microbrew six pack.

Assessing the Starting Pitching in the Twins' Organization

For a baseball team to content, one of three things need to happen:

1. An organization has to develop impact starting pitchers.
2. An organization has to trade for impact starting pitcher.
3. An organizations has to sign impact starting pitcher free agents.

I demonstrated earlier this month that the Twins' last two year abysmal record could have been predicted as earlier as 2008, based on the state of their starting pitching prospects.  Only 11 pitchers who have been in the Twins' minors in 2008 are still in the organization and none has been an impact starter.  The Twins have been adverse in doing numbers 2 and 3 above, so in order to compete, they have to develop starting pitching talent.

The Denard Span and Ben Revere trades infused the Twins with 3 young starting pitchers: Vince Worley, 24, and Trevor May and Alex Meyer, both 22, which makes the future a bit more hopeful.  How hopeful?  I will try to quantify, so the rest of the discussion here will be metrics and numbers based.  This will actually be somewhat of a logical continuation of this analysis, where in August last year, I tried to look positively into the 2012 Minnesota Twins pitching and draw conclusions based on potential.  What I am doing here is looking at the whole organization Starting Pitching, under very similar metrics and see what the future might look like.  This will include potential rankings of Twins' starters, but it is not a prospect list.  They are based on their 2012 performance (and adjusted for age and playing level) and not their potential.  Injured players, such as Wimmers and Salcedo will be higher on prospect lists that ranked here, because their numbers were awful.

The metrics I like to use to do this have been some simple things of my own device: Pitching Effectiveness or PE and Expected Pitching Effectiveness or xPE.  I fiddled around with PE in 2008 and with xPE in 2009.  Here is the reason I devised PE and here is the reason I optimized it to xPE.  My main arguments were a. I felt like xFIP and FIP and DICE weigh too much things like home runs (which anyone who watched the home runs by Miquel Cabrera and Delmon Young against the Twins yesterday cannot deny that they are a matter of inches and ballpark and luck and fielding performance from being a long fly ball).  Also these formulae are hard to memorize and I wanted something simple I can calculate looking at a stat sheet and also something that you can calculate using splits (e.g. how has Brian Duensing or Glen Perkins been as a starter vs as a reliever); you can find xFIP around, but not in a spit form.  So in 2008 I devised PE, which simple takes account three things:  Strikeouts, walks and hits.  So a pitcher who strikes out more people, walks fewer and gives lesser hits is more likely to succeed than someone who doesn't.  And all hits are counted equal because the difference between a single and a triple might be the difference of having Delmon Young or Ben Revere play Left Field or the difference between a fly ball out and a home run might be the difference of having Torii Hunter or Rich Becker playing Center Field.  And I use WHIP, K/9 and K/BB to calculate PE (a simple PE= (K/9*K/BB)/WHIP).  xPE further normalizes for BABIP (to league average .290) to account for "luck" with hits.  And unlike FIP and ERA, these two measures go the opposite directions (higher is better) and have a large variation (0.x to 100+) to allow for granularity in comparisons vs. compressing performance from 0 to 10 or so.  Over here, I show that xFIP and FIP correlate pretty well to the much more complex SIERA, which is way too complex to be able to calculate just with a cell phone calculate (which is my goal as far as metrics go.)

PE and xPE have been fine to show performance and expected performance.  How about potential?  This is the many million dollar question, because if someone is able to guess estimate future potential of a player in single A, he/she will be having a great advantage in identifying cheap, future impact players, in a more objective way than scouting reports.  So yet a new measure in the PE family has been devised:  the adjusted expected pitching effectiveness or axPE.  I tried something similar the off-season after the 2008 season, but the resulting formula was too complicated (cannot fit on a T-shirt or be calculated using a cell phone calculator), so needed to be refined.  I hope I am close to this, since axPE is simpler.  It takes into consideration level of play.  Each level of play gets a number.  Here are these numbers:

All Rookie Leagues: 1
A: 2
A+: 3
AA: 4
AAA: 5
MLB: 6

the average of the levels a player participated is taken into consideration for axPE.  For example if a pitcher spent part of the season in high A and then moved to AA, the average level grade is 3.5.

The other adjustment involves someone's age.  Younger players in higher levels have higher potential; this is the premise here. axPE is defined as xPE* (level/age) *7 .  The 7 is a coefficient that makes it a number  in the neighborhood of PE and xPE.

A note of importance:  agPE is biased towards better performance in higher levels; this is by design, since there have been pitchers who blew away rookie leagues and then bottomed out when they went to AA.

The PE family metrics translators for starters (and relievers, for the sake of completeness, but RP are out of score here) are roughly translated to:

Rotation:
xPE/axPE
35+ Ace
25-35 #1- #2 Starter
15-25 #2- #3 Starter
10-15 #3 - #4 Starter
7.5-10 #5 Starter

Bullpen:
xPE/axPE
35+ Closer
25-35 Closer-Setup
15-25 Setup- Long Relief
8-15 Long Relief-Mopup

where axPE denotes intermediate/long term potential.

So, do the Twins have any potentially impact starters in their organization, based on their 2012 performance?

Without further ado, here are the numbers, that include pretty much every pitcher in the Twins organization, including the new ones, and those who pitched only in the major league level in 2012, under 30 years old.  The age indicated is their age in 2012.  I am including Nick Blackburn, for comparison's sake.  Raw data is taken from B-R and an (*) denotes LHP:

Thus,  it looks like the Twins have 3 potential impact starters in their organization; Kyle Gibson and Alex Meyer are not a surprise.  Cole DeVries is.  Cole DeVries' axPE is higher than his xPE level (which turns out to suggest a middle of the rotation starter), because he performed at the MLB level.  Whether or not potential is applicable to a 28 year old who has reached the majors, is a good discussion.   On the other extreme, some of the K/9 leaders in the organization, Josue Montanez, Taylor Rogers, Felix Jorge, Tyler Jones have repressed axPE, because they are still at the lower levels of the organization.  I think that they need to prove themselves at higher level.

Based on this, and if you cut the list at 25 years old or younger, the Twins have at least couple of pitchers who have impact starter (i.e. top of the rotation/ace) potential and several who have mid-rotation potential. 

A huge qualifier:  This list is of pitchers who were used mostly as starters (i.e. made more starts than relief appearances in 2012.)  This leaves at least one particular pitcher out who should be included, but he made 4 starts and 7 relief appearances:  Jose Berrios.  His numbers (albeit in 11 games and 30 some innings) are out of this world: 284.12 PE, 236.11 xPE, and 91.82 axPE.  He should be part of the discussion and definitely has top of the rotation potential, but there is an asterisk for the reasons mentioned.

Others who made few starts but mostly used in a relief role but definitely should be part of the equation are (in no order) : Matt Houser, Miguel Munoz, AJ Achter, Cole Johnson, Argentis Silva (the 16 year old high bonus singing) Elias Villasarra, Fernando Romero, Luke Bard, Jose Jimenez, Corey Kimes, Brett Lee and Mason Melotakis.

Again, this is an intermediate term discussion and does not really involve recent Twins veteran acquisitions Rich Harden, Mike Pelfrey and Kevin Correia.

Who is the newest member of the Twins HOF, Tom Mee.

Today the Minnesota Twins selected two new members to their Hall of Fame,  LHP "Everyday" Eddie Guardado, and long time staffer Tom Mee.  All Twins' fans know Everyday Eddie, but who is Tom Mee?

Tom Mee has been with the Twins' organization from their first season in Minnesota (1961) until their last title (1991).   He was the first front office person hired when the Twins moved to Minnesota in 1960 and was asked to lead their transition from Washington.  The following season he became their PR Director, a position he held until his retirement.  After his retirement  from the Twins he was the official scorer in the Metrodome until 2007 and spend 2 seasons (1992 and 1993) with the Twins' broadcasting team with Dick Bremmer and Jim Kaat.

He is a graduate of Joe Mauer's Alma Matter, St. Paul's Cretin High School. Mee was a baseball player with the University of Minnesota Golden Gophers in the late 40s and played a couple seasons in the Independent Leagues.  He was then certified by the Brown Institute of Radio as an announcer and his career as a Baseball radio announcer begun.  It took him form Detroit Lakes to Montana to New Mexico when he finally settled back in the Cities doing Public Relationships for the St. Paul Saints (the former incarnation) in 1957.

One of the little known facts about Mee is that he is the person who hired Jim Rantz to the Twins front office.  In 1965, when the Twins won the pennant and went to the World Series, his one man PR department was overloaded and he needed a part time assistant so he hired Rantz who was managing the St. Cloud Northern League Club.  Rantz stuck around from 1965 until last off-season.

Tom Mee's son and grandson have also played baseball at the University of Minnesota.   His grandson, Mike Mee, played a couple seasons in the Diamondbacks organization last decade.

2013 Spring Training Guide to Fort Myers Part II: The Baseball

This is the second of the three 2013 Spring Training Guides to Fort Myers that will appear here.  The first one was a guide on the logistics of how to get there and where to stay etc., including some ways to get there as inexpensively as possible, if that is a consideration.  The Logistics Guide can be found here.  The next guide will be about food and this one is about the reason people go to Fort Myers:  Spring Training baseball.

The Twins' Spring Training Complex:

Here is a satellite image of the Lee County Sports Complex (all images are screenshots from Bing Maps) :




The complex is accessible via the Miracle on 34th St, either from Ben C Pratt Pkwy or from Plantation Rd. The best was to go is via the Parkway, esp. if it is busy. Miracle on 34th St divides the Twins' part of the complex from the four county softball field. Hammond Stadium, the site of the Twins Spring Training home games and the home of the Fort Myers Miracle (the Twins' high A, Florida State League affiliate) is on the Northeast corner of the Complex. Those parallel lines is the parking lot that can fit about 2000 cars. The stadium seats about 8000 people, so parking can be tight.

In addition to Hammond Stadium, there are four full size practice fields and two infield practice fields. You can find Twins' major and minor league players working out in those fields throughout the day, so it might make sense to explore the whole complex or even catch (a free, other than parking) minor league game or two. Some Hotels offer free shuttle service to the Complex, so make sure you explore this option if available

During Twins' home games you have to pay for parking, however when the Twins are away, you can come into the complex and park for free and watch the Twins' minor leagues (you can do that on game days in the morning as well.)  The minor leaguers are using the 3 full fields further away from the Ballpark and the inflied half field right next to the clubhouse (the tin building). The practice field next to the ballpark is exclusively used by the MLB team.

There are 2 different camps take place there (the MLB and MiLB camp) but there is not a "dividing line" that folks who are cut from the big camp have to cross to get "down to the minor league" camp.  As you can see, all the fields are next to each other.   Often, non-travelling major leaguers (I saw Casilla and Carroll do that last season) play in Minor League games.  So do rehabing major leaguers.

The best way to watch the minor leaguers is to drive and park close to the clubhouse (there are not too many cars on non-game days, about as many as they are in the picture) and go between the 3 large fields.  Usually AAA plays on the North West most field and AA next to it.  With a little bit of imagination, one can sit between both fields and watch 2 games.  There are bleachers in the area (metal).  Bathrooms and a water fountain are in the south of the clubhouse building.   Bringing water is a must here because there are no concessions.  A lot of lower level or non-playing minor leaguers are around  and on the stands watching the AAA and AA games.  Actually pitchers are relegated to radar charting duty in tables in the common area behind the home plates and the fence, and standing around there is a good place to look at the radar readings.  You can also find Twin Cities Sports Celebrities on the stands:






The "dugouts" and "bullpens" are just fenced in areas so you can get a great look of the Twins' minor leaguers.  All minor league games are free.  The new Twins' lease will provide for a dorm to be build in the area, but I am not certain on its wearabouts, but likely South of the fields and just west of the county softball fields.


Hammond Stadium:

Hammond Stadium (and the Lee County Complex) was officially opened in the Spring of 1991. (The year of the Twins' last World Championship.) It is the home of Fort Myers Miracle, a franchise that has Jimmy Buffett and Bill Murray as part-owners. It has been recently renovated and is one of the largest Ball Parks in FSL, sitting up to 8500 people.



As with most minor league stadiums, most sitting is on the infield between the two dugouts. Hammonds Stadium has a nose bleed 2xx level as well and a small grassy field on short right field for fans to sit picnic style. Spring training tickets cost from $45 to $10 or so, depending on the opponent and the seating.  As far as tickets go, there are ticket outlets just outside the Park.  You can preorder tickets over the web, or you can frequently obtain them from locals in the parking lot who are not interesting in attending the game.











One thing that you MUST note: bottled water in unopened containers is permitted in the stadium, as are bags up to 16x16x8 (think reusable grocery bags), so please take advantage of that. That said, the stadium has one of the best selections of beers, including more than 20 mainstream, import and microbrew beers and ales. The best variety of beer, including beer sold only for Twins' and Miracle's games there, is at the bar at the far left (third base) end of the outside concourse, right before the bullpen

They only sell Pepsi products as far as soft drinks go. I will have a food guide within a week, but I have to mention that there is an interesting variety of food, including pizza, sweet potato fries, fish tacos, deep fried nachos on a stick, and two artery clogging specialties: the Carolina Dog, a hot dog topped with pulled pork, baked beans and coleslaw and the Richard Simmons burger a behemoth featuring a 1/4 lb burger, a 1/4 lb chicken, a 1/4 lb brat, held together by 3 slices of cheese and six strips of bacon and contains more calories that the average developing world person eats in a week. There is an annual concession guide, for the stadium that yet has to be published.

Here is the seating guide from the Miracle web site. Also, this is a great article about Hammonds Stadium with a lot of detail about the ball park.  Also, here is a must see panoramic view of the seating are a from last year's Spring Training.  The Twins' dugout is on the third base side and the bullpen on the end of the bleachers in short left.  The new lease provides for major renovations to the Ballpark including a catwalk area at the Outfield.  Not sure when this will start and whether it will be around for the 2013 Spring Training. 

Little known fact:  If you go to the Spring Training and the home of the Fort Myers Miracle and expect to find Miracle merchandise in the gift shop, you will be disappointed.  During Spring Training, there are only Twins' merchandise.  However, they have Miracle merchandise.  If you go there in a day where there are no games (the ballpark is open) and go to the gift shop and ask, they will bring you some.

Other things:

Last but not least, the Twins do not play home games every day. So what to do in an off day? I would chose from one of the following two things: Either drive to the Complex trying to catch minor leaguers (my favorite choice) and non-traveling major leaguers in action in one (or more) of the fields, or drive to watch the Twins in an away game. Here is a map of Florida that shows all the Grapefruit League home team locations:



The Rays play their home games about half an hour away and the Pirates and Orioles about an hour away or so. The Red Sox play in Fort Myers. Those are the most convenient ball parks to visit. 

Next:  The Food Guide.

Newest Twins' Uniform Numbers

Amid great speculation Twins' President David St. Peter revealed the uniform numbers of the newest Twins.  They are:

Kevin Correia 30 (last worn by Scott Baker).  Correia has worn 29 the last 4 seasons with the Pardes and the Pirates and 50, 53 and 32 with the Giants

Mike Pelfrey 37 (last worn by Sean Burroughs.) Pelfrey has worn 34 all his career, but we all know who this number belongs to.

Rich Harden 47 (last worn by Fransisco Liriano.) Harden has worn, 16, 40 and 18 with the Athletics and 40 with both the Rangers and Cubs.

Vance Worley 49 (last worn by Jeff Manship.)  49 is the only number that Worley wore in his pro career (with the Phillies so far)

Aaron Hicks 63 (last worn by Joe Benson). Hicks has been wearing 55 in Spring Trainings

There you go.  You can now order your custom made shirsey or jersey.

Interesting to see that the Ps who are ready for a new beginning are wearing numbers they did not use before. 

2013 Spring Training Guide to Fort Myers. Part I: The Logistics.

Less than a month for Pitchers and Catchers to report to Fort Myers so it is about time for you to make your arrangements to go to Fort Myers (I made mine late last year) and it is about time for the second annual Fort Myers Guides.

Last season there were two Spring Training Guides: the Spring Training Guide to Fort Myers and the Fort Myers Culinary Guide .  This season there will be three guides and will be different than last year's.  After I went to Spring Training in 2012 and about in the middle of the summer last year, the dice were rolled in such a way that I now go to the Central and South Central Florida area on a multiple times a month basis and I do have a list of additional tips on how and where best to get to Fort Myers.  This will be the first guide:  The Spring Training Logistics Guide, where the area is described and the best and least expensive ways of getting to the Twins' Spring Training home.  Knowing what I know now last season, I could have saved at least a couple hundred dollars in airfare, at least that much in a hotel and about that much in a car rental, money better spent watching the Twins and buying Twins' (and Miracle) gear.   As a bonus, I will list the official Twins' hotel, which is the place where a lot of Twins' people stay and a great place to rub elbows with Twins' players and staff.

The second guide will be about what to do once you are there.  And this is all about baseball.  What is going on at the Training Complex, tips and tricks about watching the games at Hammond Stadium (based on my fresh experience from last year) and other ballparks you might want to visit.  This with be the Spring Training Baseball Guide. 

The third guide will be a Food Guide to Fort Myers, but changed from last season's.  Last season's it was cuisine-specific and I think that it is still a valuable resource.  This season will be more restaurant-specific.  As a bonus, I will list established hangouts of Twins' players.

These guides are mainly from the Twins' perspective but useful for Red Sox' (and soon Nationals') fans

How to get to Fort Myers:

Unless you want to have a non-rental car with you (a good choice if you are a player or will be there for a month or so, or you live close to Fort Myers) flying is probably the best choice. There is a local airport (Southeast Florida International, code: RSW) served by a variety of airlines, but there are a total of about 75 flights a day into and out from there. Alternative airports are the larger Tampa International (TPA) and Miami International (MIA), about 2 and 2.5 hrs drive respectively as is the Sarasota Bradenton International Airport (SRQ) is slightly over an hour drive from Fort Myers and slightly larger airport than the Southwest Florida International at Fort Myers.  Fort Lauderdale (FLL) is also an option, and a potentially fairly attractive one if your home airport has airlines like Frontier, Spirit and Allegient and you are willing to fly them, because they have inexpensive and relatively frequent flights there.  Flying into Fort Myers is probably the most expensive option in the list but you do not have to drive far.  Also, the TSA checkpoints in the return trip are a mess.  Budget an extra hour to go through.  My favorite option (and what I am doing this year?) Orlando.

Orlando International (MCO) is about 3 hrs away from Fort Myers, but it offers the benefit of having the lowest airfare and lowest car rental prices in Florida, in combination to more that 60 mainstream carrier flights daily.  Plus, as a bonus, if you have a family, you can spend a few days there with the kids, which will help them palate more 8+ hrs of baseball-related stuff that you would do once at Fort Myers.  As far as airfare prices go and where to find the best ones, go to the ITA Matrix software portal, chose the "show a calendar of lowest fares" and play with it.  This is the tool that travel agents are using.  Once you find a flight, go online to the airline or an online travel agency and reserve it.   My fares in and out of MCO have been in the $150-200 range from the North East, but YMMV depending on departing city.

As far as rental cars go (and you do need one since the public transportation in Fort Myers is non-existent,) the best value in Florida is Dollar.  And here is a trick:  Go to the Dollar web site and register to be an express member for free.  This way you will have the car waiting in a predetermined spot and you by-pass the counter.  Next, make your reservation, by selecting view all car types and picking the least expensive option. Once you make your reservation, check it often and early and "modify" it to see if there are any lower prices posted.  Dollar is notorious of dropping their car prices, especially close to the reservation dates.  I usually rent cars at about $12-16 a day.  But you have to check and change those prices a lot.  Refuse the automatic toll machine ($8ish/day) and the GPS ($13ish a day) and deal with the insurance as you normally do (i.e. if you refuse because you are covered by your own car, refuse it.)

If you want to drive down there, the fastest was to get there is via I-75 that goes through the town. From most points of the Midwest or Northwest, the best way is to catch I-75 around the Metro Atlanta area. From South and South West, I-10 hits I-75 in North Florida about an hour east of Jacksonville. From the East Coast, the best bet would be I-95 all the way to Daytona Beach, then I-4 through Orlando and catching I-75 at Tampa. If you live at the Twin Cities area, Minneapolis is about 1700 miles away from Fort Myers, which means about 3 days of 8 hours driving each, each way.  Enjoy :)

This is a map of South & Central Florida, to let you see where Fort Myers is situated in Florida (all maps and satellite images used in this post are screen shots from Bing maps) :




The Metro Area and the City:

Fort Myers (and, btw, it is not Ft. Myers) is the smallest of 3 cities in the Fort Myers-Cape Coral Metropolitan area. It has about 62,000 people, whereas the Metro has about 650,000 people most of them living in Cape Coral, a city planned and started in the late 50s as a huge retirement community. Interestingly enough the planners wanted to make every property close to water, so they created and extensive system of Canals. Cape Coral has more miles of navigable waterways than any city in the world, including Venice (Italy, not FL) and Amsterdam. About 400 miles of canals. Fort Myers Beach, Sanibel Island and Pine Island are popular beach front communities with a lot of beach-related tourism.

Here is a photo of the Cape Coral- Fort Myers metro:



An important note, especially to people from northern climates: Average temperatures in March are 80 for high and 60 for low, so make sure that you pack sunscreen, hats, glasses, shorts, t-shirts and a swimsuit, if you are so inclined.  And if you get sunburns, you will get a sunburn there, so please plan accordingly

The city of Fort Myers itself is very easily navigated. Here is a map of the City with the Twins' Spring Training Headquarters noted with an orange Marker:





You can click here for a larger picture in a new window.

Where to Stay:

The Fort Myers Airport is about 6 miles due west from Hammonds Stadium and the Spring Training Complex. Daniels Parkway (that becomes Cypress Lake Dr in the City) will take you from the Airport to the town and the Twins' complex. If you are on a budget and looking for a hotel, the ones on Daniels Parkway and that area west of I-75 offer good bargains and are fairly close to the Twins' Spring Training Complex. Another area for reasonable accommodations is the S. Cleveland Avenue North of Page Field.

Mostly everything can be found within a large triangle defined by S. Cleveland Ave to the West, Colonial Blvd to the North and the Ben C. Pratt Pkwy going Northeast to Southwest. The Twins' Spring training complex is on the South part of Ben C. Pratt Pkwy, just South of Daniels Pkwy.  Traffic, other than when the games are over, is not an issue at Fort Myers.

If you want to rub elbows with Twins' players and staff, the Twins' official/unofficial hotel in the Fort Myers' area is the Hilton Garden Inn Fort Myers (not the one by the airport, but the one "in town").

Alternatively you can stay at Naples (offers more things to do at night) or Port Charlotte (offers less expensive rooms and it is the Rays' Spring Training Home).  Both are about half an hour easy drive away.

The best bargains for Hotels (unless you are a frequent guest and can use points for free rooms) are either Hotwire or Hotels.com, but the establishments are sometimes name-less so it can be a gamble.  On the other hand, if you stay pretty close to the ballpark and away from the downtown area, there are not any seedy places.

This year I will be staying at Port Charlotte and will be watching some Twins' games there as visitors as well.

The Twins' Spring Training Complex:

Here is a satellite image of the Lee County Sports Complex:



More about the complex, how and when to get there and all the things about the Twins' Spring Training home in the next guide.

An illustration of what is in the heart of the Twins pitching problems

With Catchers and Pitchers reporting in less that one month for Spring Training 2013, I decided to get ready for my Spring Training Coverage (teaser: expect 3 new guides this month) so I was looking at the past coverage here.  I stumbled upon this little piece from the end of the 2009 Spring Training.  It looks really innocent.  After all it is a list of all 97 pitchers in the Twins' minors in 2008 from DSL to AAA, who were still with the organization in 2009 along with the 2009 MiLB FAs and where they would potentially end up in 2008.

Fairly innocent.

Until you fast forward to 2013, where you see that only 11 of those 97 players are still in the Twins' organization in any level and nobody made any impact in the Twins' rotation.  The best players in the list were swingmen and bullpen arms.  Here is the list of the 11 who are still with the Twins (the original list of 97 is here ):

Alex Burnett
Cole Devries
Brian Duensing 
Deolis Guerra
B.J. Hermsen
Bruce Pugh
Tyler Robertson
Adrian Salcedo
Anthony Slama 
Tom Stuifbergen
Anthony Swarzak

So if your minor league system does not feed the major league team with impact starters for 4 years and you do not sign impact starters via free agency or acquire them via trades, how do you expect to compete?

The writing for the mess that was 2011 and 2012 was on the wall for the Twins in 2009.  They either just could not see it (by believing that their prospects were better than what they were) or they ignore it.  Either way, it is equally bad.
'

Projecting Possible Breakout Seasons For 2013 Rookie Position Players

Note: this is a guest post by Hannah Miller from FanDuel.com



In 2012, Mike Trout and Bryce Harper proved that you do not need MLB experience to become key cogs in an offense. Harper turned in one of the best seasons ever for a teenager, while Trout turned in one of the best overall seasons ever. As we get closer to 2013, are there any players poised to possibly be the next breakout star in baseball?

For starters, it is unrealistic to expect the next crop of rookies to make the type of impact those two did. It rarely happens that way. However, there are some top prospects who will get a shot at every day playing time most likely in 2013. Here are three that look poised for possibly big seasons.

Will Myers (Tampa Bay Rays)

The Rays picked up Myers as the centerpiece in the James Shields/Wade Davis trade, and many believe he has all the makings of a five-tool outfielder in the future. Myers is actually older than Trout, but the Royals brought him up a little bit more slowly than the Angels did with their uber-talented outfielder. Like Trout, Myers will more than likely spend some time in the minors before being moved up later in the season for Tampa Bay.

Travis d’Arnaud (New York Mets)

Like Myers, d’Arnaud is changing organizations this offseason, which actually gives him a better shot at playing a lot in 2013. As part of the R.A. Dickey deal, d’Arnaud is now penciled in as the Mets catcher for the future. So will when the Mets officially bring up the catcher who can hit for power and average?

One advantage for d’Arnaud over most other prospects is his age. He is going to be 24 years old on opening day in 2013, so the Mets probably will not waste a ton of time to bring him up. With the Mets probably not going very far next season, he should get plenty of time to learn on the job.

Billy Hamilton (Cincinnati Reds)

This might be going out on a limb a bit, but Hamilton might have the best chance to make a huge impact on a potential playoff team in 2013. The Reds figure to be solid next season with or without him playing every day, but if shows enough consistency at the plate, Hamilton could force his way into the lineup.

Last season, Hamilton played both shortstop and outfield for the Single-A and Double-A affiliates. He is known for his amazing speed though, which could be a game changer. He hit for a solid average and draws walks, but his lack of power and definite position scares some people. If he can find a place to play every day for the Reds, he could change the game each time he is at the plate or on the base paths and put up some serious fantasy baseball numbers. He is never going to be the five-tool, conventional star baseball player, but he could change baseball in his own way.

An Attempt towards an Objective 2013 MLB Hall of Fame Ballot

'Tis the time of the year when BBWAA writers who have ballots for the Hall of Fame voting, as well as everyone else, indicate who they want to be in the Hall of Fame.   There are a lot of those lists and most of them come without much explanation and most of the picks are somewhat subjective (of the type: "Jack Morris should be in because he was the best post-season pitcher like ever").  Also, you have the steroid witch hunters sharpening their arrows and tightening their bows trying to make it all "alright".  Furthermore, you have the people who think that because someone is a "nice guy", he should be in (Dale Murphy supporters now and Jim Rice supporters earlier fall into this category.)

What are my ground rules for crating a Hall of Fame Ballot (and even though the word "objective" is on the title, this is the list of the subjective criteria I am using - and one has to use subjective criteria, since there is no objective direction from the Hall on when someone should or should not be in):

• You cannot "punish" one type of PED users (steroid users) and not another.  So either all deserved players are in or all out.  Since MLB listed amphetamines or "greenies" in the PED banned list, lots of the enshrined players should be out, according to the ones who are on the Steroid witch hunt, starting with Hank Aaron, who in a televised interview with Bob Kostas, admitted to have taken greenies.  All in or all out.  Period. Otherwise it is a hypocrisy akin to that of a pro-lifer supporting the death penalty.  So, in my ballot, they are all in.  No time for witch hunts
• I believe that the Hall of Fame should not be the Hall of Very Good (or with the recent addition of the likes of Jim Rice, the Hall of All Stars).  Only the best players of an era should be there.  A handful.  The very best
• I would like to find an objective criterium to use to rank players.  And since this is a lifetime achievement, career WAR is as close as it gets.  WAR takes care of the era and included hitting, fielding and base running for position players, and it is adjusted for position so it is pretty holistic (and helps obliterate arguments that someone who is a Catcher or a Short Stop could be lighter hitting than an OF/1B and still in the Hall.  That is all reflected in the number).  Some people indicate that pitcher WAR is useless; my take is that (since it is a cummulative achievement award) for this exercise works pretty well (and the data below show it) unless it is for a reliever.

Without further ado, here is a list of all players in the 2013 ballot, in decreasing WAR (Baseball-Reference style), including recently selected players in blue backgrounds.

The players in green (Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Jeff Bagwell and Curt Schilling) will have my vote.  The players in yellow are in a bubble (based on the previously inducted Roberto Alomar and Barry Larkin) and will get some votes.  There are 11 playes in yellow and green and only 10 spots.  Lee Smith will always get votes, but his WAR is just too low compared with that of Goose Gossage (whom I consider borderline)  Players like Dale Murphy, Jack Morris, Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa do not belong in the Hall.

You heard it correctly:  Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa do not belong in the Hall of Fame.  And not because they used steroids potentially.  They do not belong because their numbers are not good enough.  Objectively.  Not witch huntingly.  Roger Maris of 61 in 61, whose record was broken, has a career WAR in the 30s, btw.

So here you have it.  And there will be the McGwire and Sosa debate (for the wrong reasons) and the Morris and Murphy debate, but objectively, none of these guys should be in.

Who will be the one who will push Plouffe at third base for the Twins?

The Twins' General Manager has been on the record many times this offseason indicating that he would like to get someone who will "push" Trevor Plouffe at third base.  The Twins' field and front office staff are unhappy with Plouffe's defense in the hot corner.   Plouffe has had his moments there, but he is still learning the position.  Let us not forget that the powers of being who feel that Plouffe is inadequate defensively are the same who gave starting roles at third base to Brian Buscher and Brendan Harris, who, arguable were worse defenders than Plouffe, plus Buscher has played the position all his life.  Regardless, for some reason getting another player who can play third base is a priority for Terry Ryan for the Twins to rebound from consecutive 99 and 96 loss season.

Who would that player be?

There are three internal options:  Jamey Carroll, Deibinson Romero and Mark Sobolewski.  I have already discussed that last two here.  For some reason, it seems that Terry Ryan does not like these options (Only Carroll was invited in Spring Training) and had an offer out to light hitting 33 year old Jack Hannahan whose greatest claim to fame is that he is Minnesotan; he snubbed the Twins and elected to sign a 1 year $2 million dollar contract with the Twins.  I suspect that Ryan will not be bringing back Nick Punto or sign Chone Figgins.  The pickings out there at the major league level are really slim and all remaining are aging utility players with very weak bats plus Scott Rollen who is old but serviceable mulling retirement or returning to the Reds.  But, this would be the team to take 24 HRs away from a RHB (Plouffe) to install a light hitting third baseman.

Are there any other possibilities?

Looking at the list of the minor league free agents, here are the ones who are still available and at least decent defensively and offensively at third base.  I suspect that unless Ryan chooses any of the aforementioned internal options, one of these folks would be it:

Shawn Bowman, 29, RHB
Audy Ciriaco, 26 RHB
Brooks Conrad, 33, SHB
Mike Costanzo, 30, LHB
Ruben Gotay, 30, SHB
Michael Hollimon (re-sign) 31, SHB
Kevin Howard, 32, LHB
Tug Hulett, 30, LHB
Andy LaRoche, 29, RHB
Mario Lisson, 29, RHB
Matt Mangini, 27, LHB
Jimmy Swift, 26, RHB

Your guess is good as mine

Mike Pelfrey interview about his elbow injury - pre surgery.