Can the Twins rebound? Part I: Looking at their history

In some respects, I do enjoy blogging more during the off-season than during the baseball season. I ind it more of challenging and rewarding mental exercise to venture into potentiality and looking at minutae, rather than describing actuality and game results. Why is that? a. There are many sources out there that do the latter, and adding another adds to the blasé feeling; b. the Twins' actuality was rather exasperating in more than a few occasions last season; and c. actuality becomes "history" after it is all said and done and it is much easier to examine it objectively.

One of the things that I would like to do this off-season is to try to examine whether a likelihood of rebounding from a fairly disappointing 2011 season. This is the first part of the series and I will be using the Twins' franchise history as a whole as potential roadmap for such an rebound. Has something similar happened to the Twins' before, or are we looking at uncharted territory? And if it has, what happened afterwards? An exercise like this lacks in acuity, but as Pearl Buck said, if you want to understand today, you have to search yesterday. And by "yesterday", I do not mean the Twins' history starting exactly 51 years from today, when Calvin Griffith announced his intention to move the Washington Senators to the Minneapolis/St. Paul south metropolitan area, but since the beginning of the American League. It is a shame that this club does not recognize its rich franchise history, from the ballpark to its web site (I find it very interesting that the "franchise history" link in the Twins' timeline page is deactivated - look at the left navigation bar in the linked page.) One of the unfortunate side-effects of this is that most Twins' fans today do not know that Stan Coveleski, Joe Cronin, Ed Delahanty, Rick Ferrell, Lefty Gomez, Goose Goslin, Clark Griffith, Bucky Harris, Walter Johnson, Harmon Killebrew, Heinie Manush, Al Simmons, George Sisler, Tris Speaker, Ted Williams and Early Wynn, all members of Baseball Hall of Fame, were associated with the Twins' franchise at some point, with Harmon Killebrew being the exception, because of his tenure with the team in Minnesota. I suspect that a lot of the Twins' fans (and probably even people employed with the Twins) do not know some of those names, or do not realize, for example, that Ted Williams was also associated with the Twins' franchise.

But that's another story and does have a lot of merit but deserves its own space. One another parenthetic note, that picture on top of my block is from Griffith Park, home of the Senators and was taken in the 20s. Back to the original (non-trivial) pursuit: Lets deromanticize the history of the Twins and examine the last season with the recent context and see how it fits with the previous history of the franchise. In other words, has something like this happened before, and if it has, what followed? Again, this is neither an exercise in either predicting nor in necromancing, but more of placing this period of Twins into the continuum of their existence.

For this I will use a simple tool, with a lot of notations overlaid and will work with visual pattern recognition. I am certain that a lot of the readers of this blog would be happy that I will not be trying to extrapolate and predict using statistical analysis. The following graph is simple: A reverse chronological order (i.e. 2011 is closest to the Y axis) line graph of the Twins' franchise wins every season down to the inaugural AL season of 1901. The division between Minnesota and Washington is indicated (big red line down the middle) as are attempts to identify a few eras/periods (blue vertical lines and notations on the bottom). Truth is that a couple of those could (and should had) be even further broken down, but this works for now, for the sake of (relative) simplicity. Few dates are also on the chart, so we can navigate, and 5 of times the franchise went to the World Series (won only the 2 last ones in MN) are also noted. For some reason, photoshop did not like the "WS" notation on the 1965 mark, but they went to the world series then, too. Six times overall. The franchise low in 1982 is there too. Here we go:

Bigger image in a new window can be found here

A few observations: The current era (Gardy Era and the late TK era) looks a lot like other periods in the Twins' history. It resembles the Killer Era (60s, most similar to it that others), the early TK era (mid 80s-early 90s), the late Walter Johnson and Joe Cronin Era (late 20s- early 30s.) Those were periods of time that the Twins and the Senators had sustained winning records and were competitive teams. Some teams in the earlier Walter Johnson Era were also competitive, but no more than a couple years in a row. Part of the reason for that was a fellow named Babe Ruth who played for a division rival from 1920 to 1930 (effectively,) and it is a major achievement that the Walter Johnson Senators dethroned the Babe Ruth Yankees in both 1924 and 1925 to represent the AL in the World Series. My visual clues bundle those teams with the following Joe Cronin Era.

The Minnesota part of the Killebrew Era, if we take a mulligan on the move year (1961), arguably has been more successful that the Ron Gardernhire Era. They went to the World series in 1965, taking the Dodgers to 7 games and losing a 2-0 three-hit shut out by Sandy Koufax in Met stadium in game 7. They also went to the ALCS in 1969 and 1970 (the first 2 years of division play.) The Early Tom Kelly Era (I should actually call it the Andy McPhail Era,) has been one of the most successful in the franchise. 2 World series trophies and 2 parades in wintry Minneapolis are hard to ignore. Also, from 1924-1933 the Senators went to 3 World Series (Late Walter Johnson and the Joe Cronin Eras,) arguably more successful than the resent past.

I find interesting that in a couple of these periods were "dips" in wins. "Bad" seasons. 1990, 1928 and 1929. Then the Twins or Senators returned to success. In other times, 1993, 1971, 1934, the dip meant a series of long cold summers with wins for the franchise hibernating like bears in mid-winter. Whether 2011 will be just a dip on the road, like 1990, 1928 and 1929, or a sign for things to come, like 1992, 1971 or 1934, is yet to be determined. Cannot necromance using history, just look at the possibilities of the future, based on past events and hope for the best outcome. So, yes, it is possible for the Twins to rebound in 2012 or in 2013, if they are in a dip like 1928 and 1929. They have done it twice before.

The next segment will examine other baseball teams in recent history (this millennium) which have rebounded from situations similar to that of the 2011 Twins. Let the hope torch burn eternal.

A contrarian opinion about the Twins' Starting Pitching

It is hard to look back at a 99-loss season and try to figure out what did not work, but it is necessary to just do that and try to pinpoint possible weaknesses that need to be solved. With a 99-loss season, pretty much nothing worked well, but prioritizing changes requires the identification of parts of the team that can be fixed relatively easily or by fixing them, it will make the biggest impact.

A lot of people in Twins territory, including fans and the press, and the Twins' management, as was referenced in the season ticket holder press conference a few weeks ago, see starting pitching as one of the weaknesses of the 2011 team, which needs to be fixed this off-season.

I examined that hypothesis, by looking at the performance of the Twins' starters in 2011 based on their on-field numbers. And the numbers disagree with that generalized belief.

3 years ago I devised a compound statistic measurement that indicates pitching effectiveness. Here I explain the idea behind the pitching effectiveness (or PE) measurement, and why I prefer it as an indicator of pitching performance independent of fielding or other external factors than other compound statistic measurements like FIP, xFIP and DICE. PE is (K/9*K/BB)/WHIP. A couple years ago, I devised another measurement expected PE or xPE, which is PE*(BABIP/.290), to further neutralize for "luck", reflecting what a pitcher's PE would be if his BABIP was .290 (League normal.)

Here is a list of the Twins' starters ranked by xPE for their 2011 performance. For pitchers who both started and relieved in 2011, only their numbers as starters are taken into consideration for the calculations. Also, the Twins' team average starter numbers are indicated as are the league average numbers. For comparison purposes, the numbers of AL starting pitchers who are considered as "Aces" and had the best starting pitching performances in 2011 are also included:




I included the following color coding: MLB average is green, above average darker green, below average yellow and well below average red.

A few observations (and I am sure that this is surprising to many out there) :

• The Twins' starter as a group, had better performance that the league average


• One pitcher's performance (Kevin Slowey) was bettered only by Verlander, while another one's (Baker's) trailed only Verlander and Sabathia and was better than Felix Hernandez, Weaver, CJ Wilson and Lester


• Liam Hendricks, who will probably be in AAA in the start of 2012 season, had 4 very promising starts


• Brian Duensing and Anthony Swardak were right there with the league average


• Pavano's and Liriano's performance was below par. Liriano was injured the whole season (and exhibited a 2mph velocity drop. His 2010 numbers (20.38 PE, 23.68 xPE) are promising for a comeback, especially if his shoulder heals and velocity increases. Pavano is a decent end of the rotation innings eater, but at this point should not be considered anything more than a 5th pitcher in this staff (and his is compensated more than that; so there is a decision that needs to be made.)


• Blackburn and Diamond do not belong in a major league rotation.

Ok. I know that this sounds pretty crazy and counter intuitive. It is contrary to what most Twins' fans, the press and the organizational brass believes. But the numbers do not lie; however the dismal results do not lie either? How do we reconcile these opposing facts? In other words, what happened if the Twins' starters pitched well?

Here are a few things that happened:

• The Twins' as a team had a ridiculous high BABIP (opponents' Batting Average in Balls In Play). 0.318 as a team. As a matter of fact, other than Liriano, every starter had an elevated BABIP, and Slowey's, Duensing's, Blackburn's, and Hendicks' approached ridiculous levels


• The Twins' defence, especially infield defense was one of the MLB worse. Here are the UZR/150 for each position as a total and for individual players at that position:
  
  
  
  • 1B: 11.4 (Mauer 27.8 UZR150/141 inn, Morneau 11.3/479, Hughes 11.0/274, Parmelee 8.1/173, Cuddyer 6.4/352)
  
  
  • 2B: -6.0 (Tolbert 5.1/244, Hughes 4.9/301, Casilla 2.2/470, Dinkelman -2.9/89, Cuddyer -20.8/140, Nishioka -39.7/49, Plouffe -41.8/127)
  
  
  • 3B: -7.1 (Valencia -6.2/1280, Hughes -9/104, Tolbert -42.3/37)
  
  
  • SS: -13.6 (Tolbert -3.2/210, Casilla -4.4/306, Nishioka -14.2/508, Plouffe -25/396)
  
  
  • LF: 2.5 (Plouffe 35.8/19, Repko 13.3/128, Benson 9.1/88, Young 5.4/642, Revere -3.1/112, Tosoni -3.8/321, Kubel -4.2/70, Dinkelman -18.2/40)
  
  
  • CF: 14.2 (Span 17.6/585, Revere 15.1/776, Benson 9.5/17, Repko -61.6/43)
  
  
  • RF: -1.8 (Revere 63.6/37, Repko 21.7/157, Dinkelman 6.3/22, Cuddyer 0.1/639, Benson -5.9/59, Mauer -8.3/9, Kubel -8.3/413, Plouffe -51.4/72, Tosoni -55.1/11)
  
  
  This deserves a whole post by itself, but I am just presenting the numbers at this point


• The best pitchers did not pitch the most, because of injuries and because of bad choices by the manager and the coaches.


• The bullpen was atrocious (and that's another story by itself), allowing a lot of inherited runs to score (inflating starters' ERAs) and losing leads

So how the Twins' starting pitching should look at 2012? What changes can be made and give better results?

• Get everyone healthy. First and foremost. With a healthy, and presumed back to at least his 2010 form, Liriano, this team has 3 true strong pitchers.


• Give the ball to your best pitchers. There is no way any other team would have alienated their best starter as this team has alienated Slowey. It is silly to have your best starter in the pen and give the ball to Blackburn (who does not belong in a major league rotation) because you gave him an ill-advised contract extension


• Realize the fact that Pavano is a back of the rotation pitcher and do not treat him like an Ace. Either have him at number 4 or 5 or trade him to relief the team from that contract


• Fix the defense. This is a no-brainer (and will get it's own post one of these days.) Also find some ways to score runs. This is another no-brainer and will get it's own post


• The writing on the wall is that Hendricks will be heading to Rochester and Duensing to the bullpen. Hendricks can use some AAA time and I think that with Cole DeVries, who has been transitioning to a starter in AFL and has been pretty effective in 4 starts there, will form a good reserve corps at the AAA level. Duensing, despite what a lot of people think, has been a reliable league average starter. He can be a stellar reliever and could really help fix the bullpen.


• Deal with Blackburn and Diamond. Blackburn (much like Perkins) has not been an effective starter in his Twins' tenure (ill-advised contract extension or not.) Putting him in the pen and hoping for same results as with Perkins is the best course of action. Diamond is not ready and needs to be in AAA and should not be the first option, if a starter is needed

So with these changes we are looking for a 2012 Twins' rotation of Slowey, Baker, Liriano, Swarzak and Pavano (or Duensing/Hendricks, if Pavano is traded.) I believe (and the numbers suggest) that this group can be successful in 2012 with better health, better management, better fielding and better defense. Despite what most people feel, the Twins' starting rotation was one of the (few) team's strengths in 2011.

What do you think?

How much is Michael Cuddyer worth?

I am really not going to mention the 2011 season as a whole for the Twins. Just looking forward to the 2012 season hoping for a phenomenal rebound alike that of 1991. It has been reported more than once that one of the Twins' priorities this off-season is re-signing Michael Cuddyer who is a free agent for the first time in his career.

Cuddyer comes off a season where he hit .284/.346/.459 with 20 HRs, drove in 70 and also scored 70. He has been the brightest offensive point for the team last season (as a whole); he also displayed the willingness to play multiple positions (unlike in previous seasons,) which was valuable to the Twins because of the multitude of injuries. He arguably had the best season of his career, looking at WAR (wins over replacement), accumulating a 3.1 WAR, which ranks him as the 81st best position player in the majors in 2011, based on that metric. And no math classes are necessary to figure this out.

In addition, he has been given accolades from the press and the Twins' brass about being a good clubhouse leader. He will be 33 on the beginning of the 2012 season. It has been reported that the Twins have offered him a 2-year, $8 million per season contract that he rejected and it looks like he is willing to explore the market before he commits.

What is a reasonable price (in annual contract terms) for Michael Cuddyer?

Here is one analysis:

I looked at all the 2011 contracts of OF/DH/1B types in MLB (including Cuddyer's), looked at their WAR, calculated average $/WAR and calculated how much 3.1 WAR (Cuddyer's WAR in 2001; career high) is worth based on the average $/WAR for OF/1B/DH for 2011. To keep things fair, I did not add players on minimum salary (like Ben Revere) and to keep things not going mathematically out of hand, I used players where WAR >= 1 for the calculations. Here is the spreadsheet:

So by this calculations, it looks like his 2011 year was worth about $7.725. So the Twins' offer of 2 years/$8 per season (including his year 34 season) is slightly higher that his career high 2011 season.

If you look at those contracts, a lot of them were signed in other financial times, before the country was hit by a recession. If you take the contracts signed before the 2010 season from the spread sheet above it looks like this:

This, arguably. might provide a better picture for a fair price in 2011. The bottom like with this calculation is a little less that $5.6 M a year.

I think that the 2 years, $8M dollar per year offer by the Twins was a generous one and reflects that the Twins believe that Cuddyer is a strong positive presence in the organization. This presence carries a close to $2.5 million premium for the Twins per year, based on his value these days and their offer. My opinion is that the Twins can do better for that money, if Cuddyer decides to keep rejecting that offer.

What do you think?

Had an Epiphany the Other Day...

... and it has nothing to do with Baseball or the Twins. Or maybe it does, partially (or even more than partially, depending how you slice and dice it, but this is not about culinary arts and sciences either.)

And it is nothing like about time you bring Slowey up instead of watching Blackie burn a game after another (that is a 'duh moment', really; kinda interesting and somewhat amusing to see how long Gardy's self-inducing plastic surgery cutting his nose to spite his face is going to last, btw...)

But I digress...

And as a matter of fact it did happen during the Twins' game last Saturday (so here is Twins and baseball connection #1; but for the life of me I cannot say that I remember much of that game - and I have been told that this is a good thing.)

So... one of the things that I learned in my 29 years (choke) in this world, is that life comes in layers and then are more layers added on top of those, and some mud, crud, lemons and other favorite (or not) citrus piling up. Great place for a flying (or not) thing of sorts to nest, settle in and stay comfortable and sit for a while (or something.)

So... once upon a time (story goes) some of those outer layers get peeled (for some weird reason; and I am so not gonna get into Psych 101 right here and now) crud falls off and one maybe discover that darn, some of the phenomenological (crud peel) disagreements (like whether Cuddyer or someone else is clutch or not or overpaid or not or whatever meaningless in the big picture of things - Twins reference #2) crap, once they are peeled, dropped, burned and done with, reveal something incredibly beautiful and similar and alike and attractive and irresistible and whatever. (Dots). Did I really say that? I guess I did... Live and let live. And once that happens that kinda (has to) smacks you upside the head. (Dots). I consider my head so smacked last Saturday, that I had to skip the Twins' game Sunday (sources tell me that I did not miss much) and it was for a good reason because Duensing was starting too (Twins reference #3), and elected to go for a 12 mile run in 99 degree heat index to clear my mind. Mind has not cleared yet, but I bonged on mile sixsomething. Glad to report that there were no casualties. No war either. Shalom.

And I am not about to write a novella (ha) about this either (for about a third of a million reasons.) But consider this a cryptic break in the regular programming (and I am not sure when there will be regular programming here) and live and let live. But enjoy the road and the little heart warming surprises (really, gotta be open to get those when they appear before your eyes, really) it might bring.

Shalom


Please feel free to comment here or throw your words of wisdom to me at thetenthinningstretch@gmail.com (and I can frankly use them :) )

So how do you fix this Twins mess?

May 25th and the Twins are 14.5 games behind the Cleveland Indians, the way to climb up from that hole looks more and more slippery every day, and the light out of the tunnel is as bright as Camping's predictions about the end of the world (as we know it.) So what you do, if you are the Twins' brass to move on and start preparing for the 2012 season? And I know that throwing the 2011 season under the bus, the same way the Manager of the Millennium threw Slowey under the bus, in May is somewhat of a hubris, but I am trying to be realistic...

So, here is what I would do, if I were the Twins' owner (Dream on and Daydream Believer time: )

This team is misfiring in all cylinders, so you gotta re-build the whole engine (think Marlins' tune ups blowing up the whole thing and winning world championships.) So (starting from the top, and these things do not have to happen stimultaneously, but they have to happen before the Winter meetings next fall: )

• Bill Smith has to go, along with the rest of the "Twins' way" (read: old school) people in the front office. This includes "special advisors", scouts in their golden years, hangovers who care more about horse racing or their personal enterprises and such (ouch). A new front office that includes a holistic player evaluation team that uses computers as well as eyes (hey, it is the 21st century, last time I checked) should be installed in place.


• (I guess that this might come as a surprise: ) Get rid of the manager and the coaches and start fresh. Everyone who ever read my opinions here knows who I feel about the love of complacency and mediocrity by the media and fans, which embrace the current Twins' field regime, even though they have fallen short since 1991, create cronyism, favoritism and schism in the clubhouse and making lineup and game decisions based on gut feelings that are in a dire need of Pepto (yes, the pink stuff.) So a new manager should be installed, someone with fire who would not take the compliments of being second-(and third- and fourth- and fifth-) best as accolades displayed in a Fargo agricultural show, but would think that an also-ran team is a failure and install this fire to his players. Someone like him (old news that I like him and he is a former Twin.) Also get at least one hispanic coach. This team is blessed to have the pitching coach who made Pedro Martinez, Randy Johnson and Johan Santana who there are now, but he is rotting in the minors (again, old news, sue me.) and has the manager's buddies as coaches.


• The players. Sigh... I gotta get a tad financially sensitive here, since a bunch of ill-advised contracts were handed out, decisions on who stays and goes and who gets extended were made based on favoritism or the previously mentioned sorts and the like... Realistically, there are few players with any trade value right now (unless some of them would have a mirage-like performance before the trading deadline, which, under the current regime, would make it more likely to keep them long term - see how that Twins' vicious cycle works? Keep high, sell low.) Anyways... back to the business. I would try to trade (mind you not all at once, but up to the trading deadline) the following (and absorb some salary $; and this is quasi-sorted based on descending trade value, pending a miracle of the aforementioned sort):

  • Cuddyer. He does have some trade value with several contenders hurting at OF, he can "play" in the IF and he is a free agent next off-season. This one is a no-brainer.
  • Thome. Ok. He is a nice guy (but he buried the Twins in that single play off game), we all want to see him hit number 600 with the Twins, but the truth is that this is probably his last year in the majors. Sell (quasi) high. Done deal.
  • Blackburn. Ill-advised extension, ceiling of a number 4 pitcher (and he is in his prime), favorite with the front office and some Twins' fans, based on perception of "guts" quota.
  • Butera. They were some takers, allegedly. Smith traded Ramos and Morales instead. Bad move. All said.
  • Duensing. This is a guy whose value drops with every start. Trade high. He is lefty and he is breathing (and he is a junkballer with the ceiling of Blackburn; and he is also in his prime years). Controversial, but... gotta do it.
  • Capps. Another guy whose value is dropping by the appearance, but someone might think he is a "proven closer". Another no-brainer
  • It gets tough here because of several reasons, mostly associated with a need for a miracle performance...Morneau. Hubris, fan favorite (but in the wrong side of 30,) awful contract, miniscule performance; should be sadly done.
  • Pavano See the above, minus the hubris bit.
  • Nathan. You need to find takers, but there might be
  • Big category here: Clean house of never-had been players in their prime or past: Dusty Hughes, Jason Repko, Matt Tolbert, Phil Dumatrait et. al. Sorry

Where that leaves the Twins as far as players go? Something like this:

a hitter core of (pretty much batting order-like) Span, Nishi(when healthy) Mauer(when healthy, can't get him go or his contract), Young, Kubel (and I do not have second thoughts about keeping him or Span), Valencia, and a whole lot of young players for evaluation. Rotation (in no order) : Liriano, Baker (had some thoughts about this one two, but he probably deserves another year,) Slowey (when healthy), Gibson and Swarzak or Diamond or someone else. The pen: bring up Slama, Chuck James, Cole DeVries. Hopefully Perkins and Mijares will get healthy, and a continuing (long due) evaluation of young pitchers.

These are my thoughts. What are yours if you owned the Twins for a day (or 2?)

Twins' week in review: the good, the bad and the ugly

One week is already in the books for the Twins' 2011 season, including a couple of trips to Toronto and New York and the home opener against the Oakland A's earlier today. Here are my random thoughts about the good, the bad and the ugly about the Twins this week:

The Good:

• Denard Span has been a monster on the top of the lineup, getting on base in a close to a .400 clip and having some timely run-driving hits. If it was not for Denard, the Twins could very well have a record of 1-6 or even 0-7


• The Twins won a game in New York, and were close in the others


• Mauer is healthy


• Morneau is healthy


• The Luke Hughes era began, albeit on a sad note


• The Twins are undefeated in Target Field


• Joe Nathan is 3 out of 3 in safe opportunities; and he hit 93 mph today


• Kubel is hitting the ball better than last season, the distance will come


• Glen Perkins has been decent so far as a reliever


• Nick Blackburn has been the best pitcher on the staff so far. Big surprise and I hope it continues


• Delmon Young's defense has been a very pleasant surprise so far

The Bad:

• I have no idea why Dusty Hughes and Jeff Manship are in the bigs...


• Other than Nick Blackburn (and Pavano today) the starting staff has been...bad


• KC and Cleveland are much better than everyone thought


• The Twins have a losing record and are between 1 and 2 games behind the White Sox (the WSox game pending tonight)


• Drew Buttera, Matt Tolbert and Jason Repko are in the roster. And they will start enough games to matter

The Ugly:

• Swisher's slide that will probably cost Nishioka the season was ugly dirty. Period. He was not even close to the base. Can anyone say a Hoey fastball up and in next time he faces the Twins?


• Gardenhire is not using his bullpen any smarter after he got the manager of the year award; and it shows: Kevin Slowey has been day-to-day because of overuse


• The Twins did not win a series away against the AL East. Something that they have to do to go all the way


• Mike Cuddyer has been the worse player on the team. So far he is hitting half of what Punto was hitting, he is running slower than Jim Thome and by playing 6 out of 7 games so far, he severely compromises the Twins' chances to win. If his foot hurts, DL him and get someone healthy in the bigs.


• Kevin Slowey in the pen. Enough said

Still a long season, and there will be lots of ups and downs but there are a few things that the Twins can correct sooner than later and several optimistic things to build upon, but the Central will be harder this season...

What do you think?

MLB Predictions for the 2011 season

It is this time of the year. Here are my predictions for the 2011 season:

AL East

Red Sox 99-53
Yankees 88-64
Toronto 79-83
Rays 77-85
Orioles 69-93


AL Central

Twins 92-70
White Sox 84-78
Tigers 78-84
Indians 73-89
Royals 72-90


AL West

Rangers 88-64
A's 83-81
Mariners 75-87
Angels 73-85



NL East

Phillies 90-72
Atlanta 88-74
Mets 82-82
Nationals 80-84
Marlins 76-86

NL Central

Cincinnati 86-76
Milwaukee 84-78
Cubs 80-82
Cardinals 79-83
Pirates 70-92
Astros 68-84

NL West

Padres 92-70
Giants 86-76
Rockies 82-82
Dodgers 72-90
Diamondbacks 68-84


AL Champions: Twins over Red Sox
NL Champions: Padres over Reds

World Champions: Twins over Padres (in 7 with Nathan and Neshek saving every game for their respective teams)


few more Twins' predictions:

• By the end of April one of Baker, Blackburn, Duensing will lose their starting job to Slowey


• By the end of June another of the above will lose his job to Gibson


• Luke Hughes will spend more days on the 25-man roster than Dusty Hughes who himself will spend more than Jeff Manship


• Perkins will be a decent reliever


• Nishioka will be the Rookie of the Year and Delmon Young the MVP, with FranKKKKKKKie finishing second to Lester in the Cy Young Award


• Mike Cuddyer will play his last game in a Twins' uniform sometime in July due to injury, when the Revere era will officially commence


• Joe Mauer will catch more than 130 games and Justin Morneau will make more than 130 starts in 1B


• Drew Butera will not make the post-season roster


• Matt Tolbert will be released before the All-Star break

What do you think?

Tsuyoshi Nishioka video

Happy New Year to every one!

This is a 5 minute video of Twins' newest acquisition, Tsuyoshi Nishioka. A lot of similarities with Ichiro, but (unfortunately) Nishioka is slower and (fortunately) he does not play small ball. Very similar OBP abilities.

The Twins new approach to starting rotation success

It has been the result of deep and secret discussions during the All Star break. What can the Twins do to have more success in their starting rotation. Should they trade for one or two new starters who would put them over the top? Should they try to create better game plans? Change their approach? Look at potential mechanics issues?

I am happy to report no in all the above.

Instead they decided to create a picture of unity and have an anthem. Their inspiration and anthem follow:

Inspiration:


Anthem:

Young man, there's no need to feel down
I said young man, pick yourself off the ground
I said young man, 'cause your in a new park
There's no need to be unhappy

Young man, there's a thing you can do
I said young man, when you're short on your stuff
You can do that and I'm sure you will find
Many ways to have a good start

It's fun to grow facial hair
It's fun to grow facial hair
They have everything for young men to enjoy
You can strike out all the boys

It's fun to grow facial hair
It's fun to grow facial hair
You can throw yourself strikes you can have a good start
You can win whanever you pitch

Young man, are you listening to me
I said young man, what do you wanna be
I said young man, you can make real your dreams
But you've got to know this one thing

No man does it all by himself
I said young man, put your pride on the shelf
And just grow facial hair
I'm sure they can help you today

It's fun to grow facial hair
It's fun to grow facial hair
They have everything for young men to enjoy
You can strike out all the boys

It's fun to grow facial hair
It's fun to grow facial hair
You can throw yourself strikes you can have a good start
You can win whanever you pitch

Young Man, I was once in your shoes
I said I was, down and out with the blues
I felt no man cared if I were alive
I felt the whole world was so jive

That's when someone came up to me
And said young man go look at the mirror
There's a thing called growing facial hair
That can start you back on your way

It's fun to grow facial hair
It's fun to grow facial hair
Young man, young man there's no need to feel down
Young man, young man pick yourself off the ground

Facial hair and just grow facial hair

Pat Neshek, the forgotten man in the Twins organization

Exactly three months ago, I made the case that Pat Neshek should be the Twins' closer, in the absence of Joe Nathan. Unfortunately, these days he seems to be the forgotten man in the Twins organization by the fans, by the media and, unfortunately by the team.

Calls for improvement of the bullpen, either focus on acquiring second class outsize talent (Aardsma) or promoting one of the "Rochester studs", referring to Slama and Waldrop. I think that the solution is much easier: Promote Pat Neshek.

Pat played in 8 games already in Rochester and other than a single unfortunate outing when he was used in back to back games, he has been lights out. Here are his numbers compared to those of Slama and Waldrop, if you exclude that single outing:



There is no comparison. Pat has been twice as effective as Anthony Slama and is way ahead of Kyle Waldrop. Also he is on the 40-man roster.

I had the opportunity to watch Pat pitch against the Lehigh Valley Ironpigs (on the TV) a few days ago on June 29th. He pitched 2/3 of an inning and retired both batters he faced, striking out one of them. His velocity is back (the stadium radar was indicating between 88 and 91 fastball) and more importantly his movement, control and command are back. He needs to be in the bigs. The Twins need him in Minessota, instead of Ron Mahay, who has been an one batter pitcher and taking a spot from better players.

Is this another case of cutting your nose to spite your face situation, that Ron Gardenhire is so used to? If you remember, Pat was misdiagnosed earlier this year with a finger ailment by the Twins' medical staff. When he was correctly diagnosed with a palm ailment, he was frustrated and voiced his frustration publicly. Ron Gardenhire did not like that. I think that the Twins should really look into having the best players in Minnesota (I can make a similar case about Jose Morales vs. Drew Butera, but that's a whole different story) and do not try to stand behind the proven inept medical staff of this team.

Free Pat Neshek now!

Who is Hot in the Twins' Minors: Version 5

The latest installment of the Who is Hot in the Twins' minors, includes players from all levels of play, since all leagues are underway, including the 3 rookie leagues (Dominican Summer League, Gulf Coast League and Appalachian League.) Several recent Twins' draftees who have signed and started their pro careers appear in the listing.

Here is the list of who is hot in the minors:

Catchers:
Felix Gallardo (RHB, 19, R-DSL) .273/.543/.318 0 HR, 4 RBI, 35 PA
Jairo Rodriguez (RHB, 21, R-GCL) .333/.333/.500 0 HR, 2 RBI, 12 PA

Infielders:
D'Angelo Jimenez (SHB, 32, AAA) .349/.457/.546 11 HR, 69 RBI, 374 PA (incl. Mex. League stats)
Matt Macri (RHB, 28, AAA) .295/.362/.452 3 HR, 16 RBI, 164 PA
Andy Leer (RHB, 22, R-ELZ) .458/.500/.667 1 HR, 7 RBI, 24 PA
Hyeong-rok Choi (RHB, 20, R-ELZ) .313/.350/.500 1 HR, 3 RBI, 20 PA
Juan Blanco (RHB, 21, R-DSL) .364/.397/.473 0 HR, 4 RBI, 13 SB, 59 PA
Miguel Sano (RHB, 17, R-DSL) .315/.441/.556 3 HR, 9 RBI, 68 PA

Outfielders:

Joe Benson (RHB, 25, AA/A+) .262/.353/.536 4 HR, 34 RBI, 11 SB, 289 PA
Angel Morales (RHB, 20, A/A+) .286/.372/.444 4 HR, 38 RBI, 19 SB, 303 PA
Oswaldo Arcia (SHB, 19, R-ELZ) .455/.526/.939 4 HR, 9 RBI, 38 PA
Danny Ortiz (LHB, 20, R-ELZ) .290/.314/.645 2 HR, 6 RBI, 31 PA
Eddie Rozario (LHB, 18, R-GCL) .333/.391/.571 1 HR, 3 RBI, 2 SB, 35 PA
Candido Pimentel (SHB, 19, R-GCL) .360/.407/.480 1 HR, 1 RBI, 2 SB, 25 PA
Kelvim Ortiz (RHB, 18, R-DSL) .391/.462/.609 1 HR, 8 RBI, 6 SB, 52 PA


1st basemen/DH:

Brock Peterson (RHB, 26, AAA) .262/.339/.488 12 HR, 41 RBI, 290 PA
Kennys Vargas (SHB, 19, R-GCL) .435/.480/.652 1 HR, 3 RBI, 25 PA
Kelvim Sylvania (LHB, 19, R-GCL) .286/.348/.524 1 HR, 5 RBI, 23 PA


RH Starters:

Kyle Gibson (22, A+/AA) 3.10 ERA, 1.178 WHIP, 7.8 K/9, 3.25 K/BB
Bobby Lanigan (23, A+) 2.25 ERA, 0.944 WHIP, 7.3 K/9, 4.83 K/BB
Liam Hendricks (21, A/A+) 1.66 ERA, 0.826 WHIP, 8.6 K/9, 9.78 K/BB
Tom Stuifbergen (21, A) 1.49 ERA, 1.128 WHIP, 8.9 K/9, 4.00 K/BB
BJ Hermsen (20, A) 3.75 ERA, 1.192 WHIP, 4.7 K/9, 2.36 K/BB
Pedro Guerra (20, R-GCL) 0.90 ERA, 0.600 WHIP, 7.2 K/9, 2.00 K/BB
Cesar Ciurcina (19, R-GCL) 1.64 ERA, 0.663 WHIP, 4.9 K/9, INF K/BB
Ezequiel Zarzyla (19, R-DSL) 2.05 ERA, 1.000 WHIP, 7.4 K/9, 2.57 K/BB
Sterling Bonilla (18, R-DSL) 0.95 ERA, 0.895 WHIP, 5.2 K/9, 3.67 K/BB
Jose Jimenez (18, R-DSL) 2.81 ERA, 1.000 WHIP, 3.4 K/9, 0.86 K/BB
Orlando Villaroel (20, R-DSL) 2.84 ERA, 1.066 WHIP, 7.5 K/9, 1.91 K/BB

LH Starters:

Dan Osterbrock (23, A/A+) 2.59 ERA, 1.115 WHIP, 7.2 K/9, 3.50 K/BB
Martire Garcia (20, R-ELZ) 0.000 ERA, 1.167 WHIP, 12.0 K/9, 2.67 K/BB

RH Relievers:

Anthony Slama (26, AAA) 1.40 ERA, 0.889 WHIP, 10.2 K/9, 2.43 K/BB
Kyle Waldrop (24, AAA) 1.02 ERA, 1.038 WHIP, 6.1 K/9, 3.27 K/BB
Kane Holbrooks (23, A) 1.56 ERA, 1.116 WHIP, 12.7 K/9, 4.75 K/BB
Mark Trau (19, R-GCL) 0.00 ERA, 1.000 WHIP, 13.5 K/9, 3.00 K/BB
Angel Mata (17, R-DSL) 3.75 ERA, 1.083 WHIP, 12.8 K/9, 5.67 K/BB
Edgar Martinez (19, R-DSL) 2.25 ERA, 1.083 WHIP, 3.8 K/9, 2.50 K/BB
Junior Subero (18, R-DSL) 2.92 ERA, 1.135 WHIP, 5.1 K/9, 1.75 K/BB

LH Relievers:

Spencer Steedley (25, AA) 2.60 ERA, 1.096 WHIP, 9.4 K/9, 2,57 K/BB
Jose Gonzalez (20, A+) 1.20 ERA, 0.867 WHIP, 5.7 K/9, 2.63 K/BB
Andrei Lobanov (20, A+/R-ELZ) 1.91 ERA, 1.129 WHIP, 7.9 K/9, 5.00 K/BB
Nelvin Fuentes (21, R-ELZ) 1.80 ERA, 1.000 WHIP, 10.8 K/9, 3.00 K/BB

Thoughts about the Twins rotation

The Twins have just finished their annual interleague series, with results that did not fulfill expectations, posting an overall losing record, for the first time since 2005. This fact, in addition to an 11-game winning streak by the White Sox and a decent interleague performance by the Tigers, which brought these 2 teams one-and-a-half and half a game respectively, behind the Twins in the standing, has triggered a lot of speculation about the team with most fingers pointing towards the starting rotation. Trade speculation that will bring in pitchers like Cliff Lee and Roy Oswalt to the Twins has been rampart, and in the national media as well.

I am attempting to examine the performance of the Twins starting pitchers, compare it to that of a few pitchers, including Lee's and Oswalt's, and will share my thoughts.

I will use 2 criteria to look at pitching performance:

• Expected Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP)

and

• Expected Pitching Efficiency (xPE). I do like (and prefer) using PE, (K/9*K/BB)/WHIP, and xPE, PE*(BABIP/.295), as pitching performance indicators, but I am adding the more widely used xFIP

Here is the performance of Twins' starters, the AL average starters and a couple of other pitchers, including some historic data:

• Clearly (esp, as far as xPE is concerned, and xFIP pretty much agrees), the Twins have four above average pitchers in their rotation, and a fifth, Nick Blackburn, which is pitching at about replacement level. A quick look at the BABIP of the Twins' pitchers, will show that, with the exception of Pavano, it has been extremely high, and it is due for a correction that would result in more success, in terms of ERA and W-L, for the Twins starters. However, Blackburn's peripherals, esp. K/9 and K/BB are extremely low to make him a league average pitcher, even with the BABIP correction. I have criticized the contract extension and my reasoning was that (because of his conditionally low PE) he projects as a number 5 starter in a competitive team, and you do not lock your number five starter long term.


• Replacing Blackburn in the rotation, is pretty much imperative at this point. One of the arguments for bringing in Lee or Oswalt is that "the Twins lack a true Ace" and the newcomer will be that ace for the Twins' run in the post-season. If you look at Liriano's performance, both as far as xPE and (mostly) as far as xFIP is concerned, he is an Ace. His performance has been better than that of Johan Santana's in his last year with the Twins and that of both Lee (his 2010 xPE is off the charts, because of low BB/9) and Oswalt in both of their last 2 season. So, myth debunked: The Twins do have an ace, and his name is Fransisco Liriano.



• I think that unless Lee divides the clubhouse (and there have been a lot of questions about both his clubhouse presence and his character, and some indications of that were obvious to the Twins' fans with the infamous Gomez incident in 2008), I think that he will be a worthwhile addition, paired with Fransisco Liriano (a fellow lefty) on the top of the rotation. What will it take to pry Lee from the Mariners. There was a report that a trade was made involving Ramos, Duensing and an outfield prospect, which fell through because of Ramos oblique injury. I do not believe this trade rumor, mainly because it will be overpaying for the Twins. I think that Ramos will be the centerpiece in any package. Reportedly, Seattle wants "young outfielders" (is it because the Twins have many of those?) in addition to a young catcher. The Twins could really fit that bill with players like Benson and Roberts, but adding players like Hicks, Revere and Angel Morales will be overpaying. Personally I would like to see both Glen Perkins and Nick Blackburn go to the Mariners (the Twins might have to pay some of Blackburn's ill-advised contract), because it will be win-win situation for anyone involved: The Twins open 3 spots (Ramos' as well) on their 40-man roster, enabling them to add players like Waldrop and Slama, and a spot on the 25-man roster. The Mariners get two pitchers who had relative success in the majors in the past and they can resurrect their careers in a new environment in the Mariners' large ballpark.


• Oswalt on the other hand, would be better than Blackburn (not a tall order, Duensing will be better than Blackburn at this point) but not a top of the rotation starter. He never pitched in the AL before and all pitchers that made the NL to AL move later in their careers have not been able to translate NL success to AL success.


• How about Slowey? Disappointing season so far. In the last 3 games his velocity fell by about 2 mph (both average FB velocity and max FB velocity). I hope that he is not having injury problems and it is an adjustment that he is making that results in the decreased velocity. To be noted: Opponents hit for a 1.208 OPS off Slowey (and 1.341 OPS off Blackburn) when paired with Drew Butera vs. a .780 OPS off Slowey (and .953 off Blackburn) when paired with Joe Mauer. Slowey should always pitch at Mauer. Gardenhire, could adjusts Mauer's days off to coincide with the pitching days of Pavano (.663 oOPS with Mauer and .601 oOPS with Butera) or even Baker (.845 oOPS with Mauer and .740 oOPS with Butera.) There is no reason that Butera should not be Pavano's "personal catcher". That concept (the back up catcher catching one pitcher who has been successful with him as a catcher, unless there are injuries) has been a very wide spread practice and should be applied in this situation. I have been calling for Butera to go to AAA and be replaced by Morales since Morales was healthy, but it seems that there is a mis-understanding between Gardenhire and Morales at this point... Regardless, Butera has no business catching Slowey.


• The Twins are starting a critical 3 game series at home against Detroit today. Sweeping Detroit might make things a lot better, but, still, some changes (replacing Blackburn and selective use of Butera) should be in the Twins' future, as far as the starting rotation is concerned....

GIDP: It "happens" or is it part of the "Twins way"?

Phil Mackey last night had a great article at ESPN1500.com, discussing the Twins' tendencies to hit into double plays this season, which has been a rally-killer. There was a very interesting quote by Ron Gardenhire:

"It's just what it is. When you get the big boys up there, you're looking for doubles and homers. And it's not a situation where you run. You've got to have guys that can run before you run. When Kubel's on, he's not a guy you're going to run with. When Kubel's at the plate, you want to leave the hole (open) and make them leave (the first baseman) on, hoping he'll hook a ball through the hole... Double plays are going to happen."

So do double plays just "happen" or is it in the Twins' DNA?

To try to answer this question, I looked at the ranking of various Twins' teams in the MLB (and the AL) for GIDP (in descending order, so #1 is the team that hit into most double plays this season) for the past 15 seasons. There has been enough player turnover within this time period. Here are the rankings:

2010: 1st
2009: 2nd (1st in AL)
2008: 8th (5th in AL)
2007: 4th (2nd in AL)
2006: 3rd (3rd in AL)
2005: 1st
2004: 10th (6th in AL)
2003: 7th (2nd in AL)
2002: 23th
------ Tom Kelly---
2001: 14th
2000: 6th (4th in AL)
1999: 3rd (2nd in AL)
1998: 1st

So, other than a couple of seasons, the Twins have been pretty high in GIDP and leading the league several times. That happened both in the Gardenhire and Tom Kelly era, so it not on the manager. I believe that it is part of the "Twins' way" of doing things, which is ingrained in the managerial philosophy of the club.

Who is Hot in the Twins' Minors: Version 4

The fourth installment of the Who is hot in the Twins' minors, includes the DSL players, since the league starting play earlier this month. Several DSL players are included in this listing.

Here is the list of who is hot in the minors:

Catchers:
Felix Gallardo (RHB, 19, R-DSL) .375/.615/.375 0 HR, 2 RBI, 13 PA

Infielders:
Matt Macri (RSHB, 28, AAA) .286/.365/.464 3 HR, 14 RBI, 127 PA
Juan Blanco (RHB, 21, R-DSL) .440/.462/.600 0 HR, 3 RBI, 6 SB, 26 PA
Miguel Sano (RHB, 17, R-DSL) .269/.355/.654 2 HR, 5 RBI, 31 PA

Outfielders:

Jason Repko (RHB, 29, AAA) .300/.386/.450 5 HR, 24 RBI, 9 SB, 209 PA
Dustin Martin (LHB, 26, AAA) .302/.368/.459 5 HR, 33 RBI, 191 PA
Brandon Roberts (LHB, 25, AA/A+) .339/.418/.417 1 HR, 17 RBI, 10 SB, 149 PA
Kelvim Ortiz (RHB, 18, R-DSL) .375/.444/.625 1 HR, 4 RBI, 3 SB, 27 PA


1st basemen/DH:


RH Starters:

Kyle Gibson (22, A+/AA) 2.28 ERA, 1.067 WHIP, 8.0 K/9, 3.35 K/BB
Bobby Lanigan (23, A+) 2.70 ERA, 1.000 WHIP, 8.4 K/9, 7.00 K/BB
Bruce Pugh (21, A+) 3.43 ERA, 1.195 WHIP, 10.8 K/9, 3.36 K/BB
Liam Hendricks (21, A) 1.60 ERA, 0.795 WHIP, 8.9 K/9, 8.00 K/BB
Tom Stuifbergen (21, A) 1.49 ERA, 1.128 WHIP, 8.9 K/9, 4.00 K/BB
Micheal Tonkin (20, A) 2.65 ERA, 1.176 WHIP, 5.3 K/9, 4.00 K/BB
Ezequiel Zarzyla (19, R-DSL) 1.64 ERA, 0.909 WHIP, 8.2 K/9, 3.33 K/BB
Sterling Bonilla (18, R-DSL) 0.00 ERA, 0.188 WHIP, 5.1 K/9, INF K/BB
Jose Jimenez (18, R-DSL) 3.60 ERA, 0.800 WHIP, 4.5 K/9, 1.67 K/BB


LH Starters:

Dan Osterbrock (23, A/A+) 2.83 ERA, 1.114 WHIP, 7.2 K/9, 3.73 K/BB

RH Relievers:

Matt Fox (27, AAA) 2.76 ERA, 1.112 WHIP, 7.5 K/9, 2.79 K/BB
Anthony Slama (26, AAA) 1.85 ERA, 0.941 WHIP, 10.6 K/9, 2.35 K/BB
Kyle Waldrop (24, AAA) 1.23 ERA, 1.000 WHIP, 5.7 K/9, 3.50 K/BB
Matthew Williams (23, A+/AA) 3.38 ERA, 1.154 WHIP, 9.4 K/9, 3.60 K/BB
Kane Holbrooks (23, A) 1.80 ERA, 1.143 WHIP, 12.3 K/9, 4.80 K/BB
Junior Subero (18, R-DSL) 0.00 ERA, 0.333 WHIP, 3.0 K/9, INF K/BB
Jose Jimenez (18, R-DSL) 0.00 ERA, 0.750 WHIP, 9.0 K/9, 1.33 K/BB

LH Relievers:

Spencer Steedley (25, AA) 2.60 ERA, 1.096 WHIP, 9.4 K/9, 2,57 K/BB
Jose Gonzalez (20, A+) 0.00 ERA, 0.500 WHIP, 7.9 K/9, INF K/BB
Andrei Lobanov (20, A+) 2.25 ERA, 1.313 WHIP, 9.0 K/9, 5.33 K/BB

Reactions by the Twins 2010 draftees

The last three days I have been live blogging the Twins' picks of the 2010 MLB draft and have been presenting profiles of each drafted player, along with scouting reports and videos of the draftees. Here, I am attempting to summarize the reactions of the draftees on their local press. These early reactions both by the local press and the draftees will give clues about their sign-ability, especially regarding later round picks who are college Juniors, community college and high school players.

In draft pick order:

1. Alex Wimmers ,RHP, Ohio State: He was quoted in Springfield News and Sun, saying that he "feels like the Twins picked a great player in him and feels like hes fit the organization extremely well. He is just extremely excited to get the opportunity to pitch for the Twins.". His father, Jim Wimmers was quoted by the Columbus Dispatch, saying that "this is a dream coming true" for his son.



2. Niko Goodrum, SS, Fayette County HS, Fayetteville, GA. Goodrum was quoted by the Fayette County news, saying: "I've been getting phone calls non-stop. It's a great feeling. I didn't think it was going to be the Twins that drafted me, but I'm happy." Also quoted by MLB.com, saying "pro ball all the way", suggesting that he will likely sign.



3. Pat Dean, LHP, Boston College. The American Chronicle suggests that Pat "said he expects to sign a contract and report to the Twins.". The Boston Herald quotes Pat, saying: "“Absolutely it’s incredible. It’s an excellent organization and I couldn’t ask for a better organization."



4. Eddie Rosario, OF,Rafael Lopez Landron HS, Guayama, PR. At this time, there are no news reports with reactions of Eddie Rosario or his family



5. Nate Roberts OF, High Point University, NC. The Northwest Herald quotes Nate saying: “I thought it was going to be the Cubs or the Twins who drafted me. The Twins were the team I was hoping I would get drafted by.”



6. Logan Darnell, LHP, Kentucky. A press release from the University of Kentucky. MLB.com quotes Logan, saying that he is excited and the fact that his teammate from Kentuky, Lance Ray, was also drafted by the Twins, will "make the transition easier"



7. Matt Hauser, RHP, Univesity of California San Diego. The Daily Pilot reports that he "is now a Twins fan because they are allowing him to continue his baseball career." also he was quoted being surprised that he was taken that early, saying: "I thought I was going to go anywhere from the 15th round to the 25th."



8. Lance Ray, OF.Kentucky. A press release from the University of Kentucky. The Record Courrier quotes Ray saying that he "will likely either sign with the Twins and head for the minor leagues, or play summer ball in the Cape Cod League and return to Kentucky for his senior year. Either way, it's so exciting.”



9. Kyle Knudson, C , Minnesota. Knudson was quoted by MLB.com, saying: "I've been a Twins fan my whole life, so it's great. It's definitely something I've dreamed of since I was little. I'm just excited to get the opportunity to play for them." . American Chronicle has an interview with Kyle.



10. J.D. Williams, SS, Brooks-DeBartolo HS, Tampa FL. Son of former MLB player Reggie Williams, drafted the same day as his brother, Reggie Jr. His farher, Reggie, Sr. was quoted by St. Petersburg Times, saying: "That's really exciting, man. Everyone wants to get drafted in the first round, but I've told my boys now they've got to show they were worthy of getting drafted in the 10th round and prove they should have been drafted nine rounds higher. It's a great honor. You can't take it for granted." JD has committed to Maryland where he was going to play second base and bat lead off.



11. Tyler Kuresa, 1B, Oakmont HS, Roseville, CA. Kuresa has a scholarship at the University of Oregon. The Roseville Press Tribune has an excellent article with several quotes from Kuresa. The summary is that he is excited to be selected by the Twins, the Twins had informed him that they will pick him in the second round and that he expects,2nd round bonus ($500,000), otherwise we will go to College.



12. Steven Maxwell, RHP,Texas Christian University. At this time there are no news of Maxwell's reaction to the pick. He is a redshirt junior.



13. Ryan O'Rourke,LHP, Merrimack College, MA. The Eagle-Tribune quotes Ryan saying: "All the hard work has finally given me the dream that all kids try to achieve. I couldn't be happier to be a Twin and hope to work even harder once I get there." The News Telegram quotes him saying: "I’m thrilled, so happy to be with the Twins’ organization.”



14. DeAndre SmelterRHP,Tattnall Square Academy, Macon, GA. DeAndre has been characterized as a difficult pick to sign, by most media. He has a commitment to Georgia Tech, and the Twins' front office has been suggesting that because he is a 2-sport athlete, they could spread the signing bonus over 5 years, like they did with Joe Mauer. The Macon Telegraph quotes DeAndre saying "honestly, I have no clue about the timetable of the decision



15. Thomas Girdwood, RHP, Elon, NC. No past draft reaction by the Junior, but pre-draft, the Times News quotes him saying that "a top ten (round) selection, is the goal.



16. Clint Dempster LHP,Nicholls State, LA. No reaction, but Dempster is a Junior and he did not sign with the Mariners after being drafted in the 31st round of the 2009 draft out of his Junior College.



17. Devin Grigg, RHP, Cal State East Bay. He is a Senior. No reaction by Devin, but his coach was quoted saying: "This is a great opportunity for Devin. To become a major league player is something Devin always wanted to do. He is very athletic and fits the baseball profile."



18. David Gutierrez, RHP, Miami. Borther of Carlos Gutierrez, currently with the New Britain Rock Cats. Did not sign when drafted by the Twins in 2009, but currently a Senior. No reaction to the draft by David.
    
    
19. Matt ArguelloLHP, Davidson HS, Mobile, AL. Committed to South Alabama. Alabama Press-Register quotes Matt saying that he's unsure what the future holds and he has no timetable for determining whether he'll turn pro. Twins officials plan to watch him play in summer tournaments to better determine how much of a signing bonus to offer.



20. Cody MartinRHP, Gonzaga. He is a Junior. No reaction yet, just a press release by Gonzaga.



21. Nathan Fawbush, RHP, Georgia Perimeter JC,. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution is talking about his destination being Elizabethton. Looks like he will sign.



22. Dillon Moyer, SS, Pendleton School, Bradenton, FL. The Philadelphia Daily News quotes Jaime Moyer's son saying on whether he will sign with the Twins or attend UC Irvine: "We'll see, it depends on a lot of things." An interesting article from the Philadelphia Inquirer, with Jamie Moyer's reactions to his son's drafting.



23. Dallas Gallant, RHP, Sam Houston State ,TX. The Huntsville Item quotes Gallant (a Junior) saying: “This is really a great opportunity for me. (Signing) depends on the offer they give me. They said that they were going to send me a contract in the mail and once we get it, we will go with it from there. It’s exciting looking forward. If it happens, then it happens. If not, I’ll come back and try again next year..



24. Mike Quesada, C, Sierra Junior College, CA. No reaction yet to the selection



25. Andy Leer, SS, Mary University, ND. The Greenwich Times report that he will travel to Ft. Myers next week for workouts with other Twins' draftees. He is a Senior, so he is expected to sign.



26. Kelly Cross, C, Pearland HS, TX. No reaction yet to the selection.



27. Brandon Henderson, OF , Fresno Community College. No reaction yet to the selection



28. Jamaal Hawkins, SS, Jacksonville University. No reaction yet to the selection by the Junior



29. Brian Burke, 3B , Lewis-Clark State, ID. No reaction yet to the selection



30. Sergio Perez (Dernal), SS,Palmetto Ridge HS, Orangetree, FL. Naples News quotes Perez saying: "“It was surprising, but at the same time it was amazing. It’s just unbelievable. I’m trying to stay humble.” Also it suggest that the Cuban-born shortstop will try to negotiate a contract with the Twins and if that doesn’t work out, he’ll choose a college. “It’s my dream to play pro ball, so we’ll see what happens in the next few days. “I’m 50-50 right now.”



31. Mark Payton, OF , St.Rita HS, Chicago, IL. Committed to Arizona State. The Southtown Star says that Payton hasn't decided whether to bypass a college career at Arizona State in favor of a pro one just yet. He'll sit down with a Twins representative at some time next week.



32. Tommy Toledo, RHP, Florida. A redshirt Sophomore. The Minneapolis Star Tribune reports that the Twins will follow him this summer in the Cape Cod league and then determine whether they will sign him.



33. Justin Parker, LHP, Consumnes River Junior College, CA. No reaction to the selection yet.



34. Kyle Necke, RHP, UC Irvine. No reactions yet, but he is a Senior and very likely to sign

.

35. Nick Alloway RHP ,Gloucester Community College, NJ. The South Jersey Courier Post quotes Nick saying: "Once I didn't get drafted (Tuesday), I tried to go to sleep because I was looking at another long day ahead. Luckily it wasn't that long. I don't mind where I got picked. I heard a couple of things that I'd be taken in earlier rounds, but I'm satisfied. It was more like a feeling of disbelief when I heard the pick. An opportunity is there. I just have to work harder. This is where it all starts and I know nothing comes easy. I'm looking forward to working hard and showing the organization what I have. This is definitely something I want."



36. Kelvin Mention, OF, Brooks-DeBartolo HS, Tampa FL. No reaction yet from the teammate of JD Williams who was drafted in the 10th round.



37. Grant Muncrief, RHP , Wichita State. The Farmington Daily Times indicates that he will be on summer watch with the organization before the two sides negotiate a contract.
    
    
38. Jared Ray, RHP, Houston. No reactions yet by the Junior, but he sat out all 2010 season following shoulder surgery.



39. Bart Carter, LHP, Western Kentucky. No reactions yet, but he is a Senior and very likely to sign



40. Vance Woodruff, RHP, Grayson Community College, TX. No reactions yet.
    
    
41. Sam Spangler, LHP, Hawaii. No reactions yet, but he is a Senior and very likely to sign



42. Brett Carroll, LHP, William Patterson University, NJ. North Jersey.com indicates that Brett, a Junior, is expected to sign and quotes him saying: "I had a tryout with the Twins at River Dell a couple of weeks ago. I was hoping, but not expecting. They made no promises, but they said I’d be on their radar."



43. Derek Christensen, RHP , Salt Lake Community College, UT. Committed to Utah. No reactions yet.
    
    
44. David Deminsky, LHP, St. Cloud University. The St Cloud Times quote Dave saying: "I had mixed feelings when I found out. I didn’t think I was going to be picked up. Right now I’m just honored to have this opportunity. I couldn’t ask for anything better. I’ve always wanted to play for the Twins. It’s always been a dream of mine. Hopefully one day I’ll be able to make it up here. It will take a lot of hard work.”



45. James Buckelew, LHP, Collins Hills HS, Suwanee, GA. No reactions yet.
    
    
46. A.J. Achter, RHP, Michigan State. He is a Junior. No reactions yet.
    
    
47. Collin Reynolds, RHP, McLennan Community College, TX. Committed to University of Texas-Arlington and very likely will attend. No reactions yet.



48. Troy Scott, 1B, Washington. Junior. No reactions yet, but a very bad Junior season
    
    
49. LeAndre (Clarence) Davis, SS, Georgia Perimeter Junior College. No reactions yet, but lost his starting SS job. Also drafted by the Twins in the 13th round in 2009.
    
    
50. James Harris, 3B, Etowah HS, Woodstock, GA. No reaction yet.
    

Profile of Twins 50th round MLB draft pick: 3B James Harris

With their 50th (and final) pick the Twins selected 6-2, 210 lbs, 3B James Harris, Etowah HS, GA

Starting QB. Might or might not play football, but will be hard to sign. Committed to Georgia Perimeter College

His profile

Profile of Twins 49th round MLB draft pick: LeAndre (Clarence) Davis SS

With their 49th pick the Twins selected 5'11" 160 lbs, LeAndre (Clarence) Davis SS from Georgia Perimeter College, also selected by the Twins in Round 13 of last year's draft out of high school.

A report from MLB Bonus Baby:
The other hitting name I wanted to see was LeAndre Davis, a freshman shortstop for Perimeter who went unsigned as the Twins’ 13th round pick in 2009. Unfortunately, Davis has been in a season-long slump, losing ground both in terms of draft stock and in terms of playing time. He’s not the regular shortstop for Perimeter anymore, and he didn’t play during the game I attended. I think he’s played himself off of any sort of early draft contention for 2010, instead putting himself in a position to reestablish his value next year as a junior college sophomore, when he’ll be more signable.

Looks like the Twins are giving him a second chance and he should probably take it.

His Wikipedia page

Profile of Twins 48th round MLB draft pick: Troy Scott 1B

With their 48th pick the Twins selected 6-5, 205 lbs, Troy Scott 1B U of Washington.

scouting reports say Scott is a big kid (6'5" 205lb) with good power potential, quick hands, and a live swing, and He has a loose, quick swing with a frame that could add weight for power projection

His bio

Profile of Twins 47th round MLB draft pick: Collin Reynolds RHP

With their 47th pick the Twins selected 6-4, 230 lbs, Collin Reynolds RHP from McLennan Community College in TX

His stats, his bio and an article.

Profile of Twins 46th round MLB draft pick: AJ (Adam) Achter RHP

With their 46th pick the Twins selected 6-5, 215, AJ (Adam) Achter RHP, Michigan State.

MSU ace

His profile