2016 Twins off-season top 40 prospects list: 6-10

You can find the introductory segment in this series, including my criteria for eligibility to be a prospect and the list of the 2015 top 40 players who graduated as prospects or are not in the system, here.    Here is my 2015 Twins off-season top 40 prospects list (summary of 1-40) for reference.

You can find players 36-40 here, players 31-35 here, players 26-30 here, players 21-25 here, players 16-20 here, and players 11-15 here.


10. Mitch Garver (17)
DOB: 1/15/1991; Age: 25
Positions: C
Bats: R, Throws: R
Height: 6'1", Weight: 220 lbs
Acquired: 9th Round Draft Pick 2013
Professional Experience: 3; Highest level: A+ (2015)

Mitch Garver was drafted by the Twins in the 9th round of 2013 draft from University of New Mexico.  The New Mexico native arrived in the pros as a fairly polished receiver who has opened eyes with his bat last season hitting .298/.399/.481 in 502 PAs walking 61 times and striking out 65 and being good behind the plate, throwing out 32% of runners and allowing 8 passed balls (which are the exact numbers in those categories that the Twins' defensive catcher darling, Stuart Turner achieved that same season; off course Garver's OPS was .182 higher.)    

At first sight, 2015 looks a bit trying for Garver at the plate, hitting .245/.356/.333 in 520 PAs with 69 BB and 82 K for the Miracle.  This includes a .164/.287/.205 April and a .210/.350/.226 May, which makes me think that he was fighting something, including a potential adjustment.  He ended up hitting .252/.354/.372 for the second half of the season, which does not include a .330/.416/.420 June.   He was invited to the Arizona Fall League, where he bested all the Twins' prospects with .317/.404/.512.    His defense behind the plate improved in 2015, catching 38% of the runners and allowing fewer passed balls (6 vs 8) in more chances than 2014.  Garver was invited in the MLB camp in this Spring Training, but with Kurt Suzuki under contract for one more season and John Ryan Murphy as the starting catcher for 2016, and John Hicks ahead of him in the depth charts, Garver will stay in the minors for at least one more season.
Likely 2016 path: Starting Catcher at Chattanooga

ETA: 2017


9. Nick Gordon (12)
DOB: 10/14/1995; Age: 20
Positions: SS
Bats: L, Throws: R
Height: 6'0", Weight: 160 lbs
Acquired: 1st Round Draft Pick 2014
Professional Experience: 2; Highest level: A (2015)

Nick Gordon was drafted by the Twins as the 5th overall player in the 2014 draft.   Part of the frustration with Gordon is not about his potential, but about the position he was drafted in a draft that included established major leaguers like Aaron Nola, Michael Conforto, and Brandon Finnegan (among others,) being selected after him.   Gordon started his pro career in 2014 playing for Elizabethton hitting .294/.333/.366 with 11 BB and 45 K (17.6 %), 11/18 SB (61%).  In 2015 for Cedar Rapids, he hit .277/.336/.360 with 39 BB and 88 K (16.5 %), 25/33 SB (76%).  There was incremental improvement on the base paths, but in general similar results.  At this point he has gap power (23 doubles, 7 triples and 1 HRs in 535 PAs), but it does get neutralized against LHPs (.264/.325/.291; only extra base hits were 3 doubles in 110 PAs against LHPs.)

Gordon's glove is better than average at SS, and he projects to stay in the position.  The biggest issue with Gordon is that I am not sure how his bat projects at this point.  He yet has not have a season of .700 OPS in professional ball and even though his best tool is his speed; his "speed-related" hitting numbers have slightly decreased this season compared to last (76  vs 64 PA/3B and .333 vs .352 BABIP).  I know that Gordon has been ranked high by many people, and I tend to believe that the reasons are a. bloodlines and b. overall selection, which are just not enough for me to rank him higher.   Have to see a good season of hitting to do so, basically because there are better prospects (even as shortstop) ahead of him at this point, including the next two players in the list.

Likely 2016 path: Starting SS at Fort Myers

ETA: 2019


8. Jermaine Palacios (36)
DOB: 7/19/1996; Age: 19
Positions: SS/3B
Bats: R, Throws: R
Height: 6'0", Weight: 145 lbs
Acquired: International Free Agent 7/2/2013
Professional Experience: 2; Highest level: Rookie/Elizabethton (2015)
Palacios was signed as an International Free Agent from Venezuela in 2013 and has not stopped hitting, since he became a professional player with the Twins.  In 2014, as a 17 year old he hit .270/.404/.399    in 225 PAs in the DSL (league average OPS: .671), as an 18 year old the first half of 2015 he hit .421/.472/.589 in 106 PAs in the GCL (league average OPS: .649) and .336/.345/.507 in 149 PAs as 2.5 year younger than the average Appalachian League Player (league average OPS: .731).   Palacios last season did not walk much (BB% 8.5 in GCL and 2.1 in Appy) and did not strike out much (10.4% & 13.8%.)  He did make meaningful contact (.421 and .336 batting average.)  

Still a teenager, there are issues with his glove.  Mainly a shortstop, has played some third base in the Dominican, but this season he was a SS in all but 5 games (shared in 1B, 2B, 3B, DH and LF.)  His play in Shortstop is erratic (.918 fielding percentage in both Rookie teams for the season,) but his glove is for real.  If you compare his .336/.345/.507 this season in Elizabethton, to Gordon's .294/.333/.366 at the same age at the same league last season, you see where these players are ranked where they are ranked in this list.  Time will tell whether Palacios will remain at SS, but the Twins will try to see how long that can be. 

Likely 2016 path: Starting SS at Cedar Rapids

ETA: 2020

7. Wander Javier (--) 
DOB: 12/29/1998; Age: 17
Positions: SS
Bats: R, Throws: R
Height: 6'0", Weight: 165 lbs
Acquired: International Free Agent 7/2/2015
Professional Experience: 0; Highest level: N/A

Wander Javier was signed by the Twins as an International Free Agent from the Dominican Republic last summer and has yet to play a single professional game.  His $4 million signing bonus topped what the Twins gave Miguel Sano, and any other amateur player ever for signing with them other than Joe Mauer, Kohl Stewart and Byron Buxton.  I have not seen Javier play professionally, since he has not, but I have seen plenty of video to be confident about this ranking.   At this point, he has 5 average or above average tools, with his arm and fielding above average and contact approaching plus.  Power and speed are average, but Javier who just turned 17 a month ago has room to grow.  Unlike Sano who was signed as shortstop, Javier projects to stay in the position as a professional.

Likely 2016 path: Extending Spring Training and then Starting SS for the GCL Twins

ETA: 2020+

6. JT Chargois (--) 
DOB: 12/3/1990; Age: 25
Positions: RHP
Bats: S, Throws: R
Height: 6'3", Weight: 200 lbs
Acquired: 2nd Round Draft Pick 2012
Professional Experience: 4; Highest level: AA (2015)

 JT Chargois was drafted by the Twins in the second round of the 2012 Draft from Rice.  The Louisiana native started his professional career that season as the Elizabethton closer, pitching 16 innings in 12 games walking 5 (2.8 BB/9) and striking out 22 (12.4 K/9 and 36.1 K%) with a 1.69 ERA (1.89 FIP) and 0.94 WHIP (.294 BABIP.)  The reason that this is the first time he appears in this list is that he missed the next 2 seasons.  After the 2012 season he has issues with his UCL, which the Twins' doctors treated by resting him.  He appeared for Extended Spring Training in 2013 but the issues resurfaced.  After another round of R&R, he finally had Tommy John Surgery on September of 2013.  In 2014 he was pitching at the Instructional League and was assigned to Fort Myers to begin 2015.

He was a Florida State League All-Star as the Miracle closer,  pitching 15 innings in 16 games walking 5 (3.8 BB/9) and striking out 19 (11.4 K/9 and 28.8 K%) with a 2.40 ERA (1.63 FIP) and 1.13 WHIP (.286 BABIP.)  He earned a promotion to Chattanooga on May 27th, where he eventually displaced Zach Jones as the closer.  He pitched 33 innings in 32 games walking 20 (5.4 BB/9) and striking out 34 (9.3 K/9 and 24.1 K%) with a 2.73 ERA (3.64 FIP) and 1.39 WHIP (.298 BABIP).  Those AA numbers seem a bit sub-par, and out of context they are.   However, Chargois, pitched 64 innings after missing 2 seasons dealing with his elbow and came back with a plus plus fastball that often topped 100 mph supplemented by a 87-88 mph plus slider that hits low 90s on occasion, but it hard to command at the higher velocities, which is what led to the increase of walks in AA.  In addition to the strikeouts, Chargois tend to produce twice as many ground balls as fly balls and is especially lethal against LHBs in that regard with the ratio up to about 2.8 last season.  What happened in Chattanooga against better competition, was that he threw more of his bat-breaking ground ball inducing fast ball than the hard to command strikeout inducing slider, which resulted into that 28.8 to 24.1 K% decrease, but in a 1.5 to 2.3 ground out to fly out increase.   Chargois has been added to the Twins 40-man roster and will have a chance to make the Twins out of Spring Traning this season, but he will have to compete with some veterans as well as with other top prospects.

Likely 2016 path: Depending on his and others' Spring Training performances and Free Agent signings, a part of the Twins bullpen or in the closer mix for Rochester and Chattanooga.   The Twins bullpen will be very fluid this Spring.

ETA: 2016

 
 

2016 Twins off-season top 40 prospects list: 11-15

You can find the introductory segment in this series, including my criteria for eligibility to be a prospect and the list of the 2015 top 40 players who graduated as prospects or are not in the system, here.    Here is my 2015 Twins off-season top 40 prospects list (summary of 1-40) for reference.

You can find players 36-40 here, players 31-35 here, players 26-30 here, players 21-25 here, and players 16-20 here.

15. Amaurys Minier (6)
DOB: 1/30/1996; Age: 19
Positions: OF/1B
Bats: S, Throws: R
Height: 6'2", Weight: 190 lbs
Acquired: International Free Agent 7/2/2012
Professional Experience: 3; Highest level: Rookie/Elizabethton (2015)


The Twins signed the Dominican as a 16 year old Shortstop on July 2012 for a $1.4 million bonus.  There was no intention of keeping Minier at that position.  After off-season shoulder surgery in 2013, he returned to the GCL as an 18 year old in 2014, where he punished pitchers in average 2 years older to the rate of .292/.405/.520 with 11 doubles, 2 triples and 8 home runs.  Clearly the shoulder was healed and the 18 year old who can generate power from both sides of the plate and hit equally well lefties and righties was well on his way towards the top of the prospect rankings.  

Then 2015 happened.  A promotion in Elizabethton resulted in a .194/.279/.280 slash line. Still a year and a half younger than the league average player in the Appalachian league, and reportedly having to fight nagging injuries last season, the potential is still there, but Minier's stock nose-dove in the rankings.


Likely 2016 path: Extended Spring Training and repeating Elizabethton in July

ETA: 2019

14. Travis Harrison (14)
DOB: 10/17/1992; Age: 23
Positions: RF/LF/1B
Bats: R, Throws: R
Height: 6'1", Weight: 215 lbs
Acquired: 1st (S) Round Draft Pick 2012
Professional Experience: 4; Highest level: AA (2015)

Travis Harrison has been climbing a step in the organization each year since he was drafted, and there are sings and hope and expectation that every next season it will be his break through season, but it has not happened yet. Unfortunately, Harrison has been doing just a bit worse every season than the previous season. Could it be that he was in his third full time position on the field in 4 seasons?   He was drafted and started his first 2 professional season at Third Base, moved to Left Field two seasons ago at Fort Myers and to Right Field Last season in Chattanooga.

For the season he hit .240/.363/.356 and his OBP was pretty close to his career average (.366), his slugging percentage and batting average took hits.  His biggest issue was that his performance dropped to .200/.348/.291 in the second part of the season.  He did hit lefties better (.257/.416/.443 for the full season,) and started the season well (.268/.375/.403) , which indicates that he was either fighting something (His drop started after he returned from a DL stint because of stomach inflammation) or the league adjusted to him.  Let's hope that it was the former and next season will actually be the break through season for Harrison

Likely 2016 path: Starting outfielder at Chattanooga

ETA: 2017


13. Kohl Stewart RHP (7)
DOB: 10/7/1994; Age: 21
Positions: RHP
Bats: R, Throws: R
Height: 6'3", Weight: 195 lbs
Acquired: 1st Round Draft Pick 2013
Professional Experience: 3; Highest level: A+ (2015)

The Twins made Kohl Steward the 5th overall selected player in the 2013 draft and a year agon MLB.com ranked him 36th best prospect in Baseball, and the Baseball Prospectus ranked him 28th.  Stewart had a somewhat dissapointing season in 2015 for the Miracle.  He started 22 games (129.3 IP) had 45 BB (3.1 K/9) and 71 K (12.8% and 4.9 K/9) for a 3.20 ERA (3.45 FIP) and 1.38 WHIP (.308 BABIP)  The hope was that the 5th overall pick will miss a lot of bats, as he did in 2013 where in 24 IP in both Rookie teams he walked 4 and struck out 24.
Steward has a plus fourseamer that hits 96, which is alternates with a close to plus 2 seamer in the low 90s and supplements it with an average hard slider in the low-mid 80s and an also average change up.  In 2014 in Cedar Rapids he started working on a slow (high 70s) curve.  Also, his 2014 season was cut short with shoulder issues and his 2015 season start was delayed for 3 weeks with throwing "elbow inflamation".  Not sure whether it is injury-related or throwing too many works in progress pitches, but he has transformed himself from a potential top of the rotation strikeout flamethrower to a pitch to contact mid to back of the rotation pitcher and this is reflected in these rankings.  The potential is there.  Maybe he needs to pitch to his strengths instead of trying to improve his weaknesses.

Likely 2016 path: In the Chattanooga rotation, depending on health.

ETA: 2017


12. Mason Melotakis (--)
DOB: 6/28/1991; Age: 24
Positions: LHP
Bats: R, Throws: L
Height: 6'2", Weight: 205 lbs
Acquired: 2nd Round Draft Pick 2012
Professional Experience: 3; Highest level: AA (2014)

Mason Melotakis was one of the 4 hard throwing College Closers the Twins drafted in 2012 with the hope to turn them into Starters in the pro leagues; one of them (5th Round Pick, Tyler Duffey) made the transition and the other three (Melotakis, 1st round pick Luke Bard, and fellow 2nd round pick JT Chargois) ended up with arm problems resulting in Tommy John surgeries and return to the bullpen.  Melotakis has had his operation on October of 2014 and based on all reports his arm healed well and has been throwing hard this fall in Fort Myers.  The return to the pen in 2014 in New Britain (even though hurt) resulted in a good increase of strikeouts to 9.6 K/9 and 25.4% K%.  It also produced a nice 1.64 GO/FO ratio.

Melotakis' fastball gets up to 96-97 mph and his once suspect slider has improved.  He has been toying with a change up as a starter, but I suspect that with the new focus as a late inning reliever, he will abandon that. Melotakis was added to the Twins' 40-man roster and spend Spring Training with the Big club.


Likely 2016 path: Depending on LHRP acquisitions by the Twins this off-season and his performance in Spring Training might start the season in Minnesota, but likely will be the Chattanooga closer.

ETA: 2016


11. Levi Michael (22)
DOB: 2/9/1991; Age: 24
Positions: 2B
Bats: S, Throws: R
Height: 5'10", Weight: 180 lbs
Acquired: 1st Round Draft Pick 2011
Professional Experience: 4; Highest level: AA (2014, 2015)

Michael was drafted by the Twins in the first round of the 2011 draft (30th overall) as a Shortstop from the University of North Carolina. Michael is one of those players whom the Twins fans might think he under-performed unless they look closer at some facts:

• In his four years as a pro, Michael played in exactly 2 levels: High A and AA.  Starting someone's career with the wooden bat in high A is placing a lot of expectations on him; Michael has proven to be a slow climber.
• He missed a lot of time with injuries, including 5 weeks in 2015 due to a left angle issue and also last season 10 days due to illness.  This makes his cumulative stats (like doubles and HRs) plummet in comparison, and he steal stole 18/21 bases.  Add this to his .167 isoP, and (very quietly) Michael has developed a nice speed and power combination.  This plays really well at second base, which is much more suited to him, both with the glove and the arm
• He has really improved his hitting the last 2 seasons with two back-to-back seasons with greater than .800 OPS in AA (.803 in 2014 and .804 in 2015)
• And here is something that most people do not realize about Michael (because he has been very quiet) :  The switch-hitter might be the best hitter in the whole organization, if you are looking for one hitter to face a LHP.  His splits against LHPs the last 2 seasons are:  
• 2015 AA: .385/.448/.673; 
• 2014 AA: .409/.500/.455; 
• 2014 A+: .366/.449/.463.  
• He is not an automatic out against RHP as well, hitting .231/.347/.361 this season in Chattanooga.  

Why Michael is not on my top 10 list?  The answer is durability.  He missed about a month and a half each of the last 2 seasons.  This is the only reason.  I think if Michael plays a full season healthy, he will open some eyes.

Likely 2016 path: Michael is MLB-ready right now with both the bat and glove.  He will likely be the starting second baseman in Rochester and depending on trades and/or injuries and needs up in Minnesota by mid-season.  Would potentially make a great in-house replacement for Brian Dozier, both as a second baseman and number 2 or even number 1 hitter, if the Twins are looking to sell high on Dozier.



ETA: 2016

The Top Ten Next Week.

2016 Twins off-season top 40 prospects list: 16-20

You can find the introductory segment in this series, including my criteria for eligibility to be a prospect and the list of the 2015 top 40 players who graduated as prospects or are not in the system, here.    Here is my 2015 Twins off-season top 40 prospects list (summary of 1-40) for reference.

You can find players 36-40 here, players 31-35 here, players 26-30 here, and players 21-25 here.

20 Felix Jorge RHP (29)
DOB: 1/2/1994; Age: 22
Positions:RHP
Bats: R, Throws: R
Height: 6'2", Weight: 170 lbs
Acquired: International Free Agent 2/21/2011
Professional Experience: 5; Highest level: A (2014, 2015)

Felix Jorge was signed as an amateur free agent from the Dominican Republic in 2011 for $250,000.  He has been moving along the Twins organization, about a step a season, until 2014 where he had major issues in Cedar Rapids and had to return in Elizabetheton.  He started 2015 agains in Cedar Rapids and was the Kernels' best pitcher, pitching 23 games (22 GS) a team tops 142 IP, had 32 BB (2.03 BB/9) and 114 Ks (7.3 K/9 and 20.3%,) for a 2.79 ERA (3.54 FIP) and 1.056 WHIP (2.67 BABIP).  Jorge came in the organization as a 16 year old with a rare 3 above average pitch mix.   He has a low 90s fastball with good downward movement, which the hitters have a hard time picking up.  Above average slurvy curveball and change up.  He commands all three pitches well, has good control and he mixes pitches well.  One might see his 2015 results and think that Jorge had a break-through season, but his biggest issue surfaced again: endurance.

In the first 11 starts Jorge pitched 70 innings resulting in 2.44 ERA, .195 OBA and 0.90 WHIP; the second half of the season (12 games, 11 starts) pitched 72 innings with considerable drop in performance:  3.13 ERA, .253 OBA and 1.21 WHIP.   Not that his second half was bad, but it was not as good as his first.  He does have mid-rotation potential, but time will tell whether he will have the endurance to be in a major league rotation.

Likely 2016 path: In the Miracle Rotation

ETA: 2018


19 Adam Walker OF (21)
DOB: 10/18/1991; Age: 24
Positions: LF/ RF
Bats: R, Throws: R
Height: 6'4", Weight: 225 lbs
Acquired: 3th Round Draft Pick 2012
Professional Experience: 4; Highest level: AA (2015)

There probably is a lot of dissapointment with this ranking, especially by the ones who count the quality of a baseball player based on home runs and RBIs, because those at the things that Walker excells.  His career minor league slash line has been .254/.311/.488 and has been mirrored every season at a new level.  In 2015 in AA Chattanooga, Walker hit .239/.309/.498 with a career high 31 HRs and 106 RBIs, but also career high 34.8 % K% and career low batting average. He did show an improvement in the base paths hitting in a career low for full season ball 8 double plays and stealing a career high 13 bases. 

Another issue with Walker is that he has problems in the field and a relatively weak arm.  To see whether his fielding improves, the Twins switched him last season to Left Field instead of Right, with very similar results.  Walker is a single tool player and it is a good tool; the Twins were afraid that someone might be intrigued by it to select him in the Rule 5 draft that they added him to the 40-man roster.   He really needs work on the plate and on the field to take the next step.  Maybe First Base or DH is where he should be, but those two positions are spoken for in the organization for a while...  It is not out of the question that he will not have a break through season if something "clicks", but it has not clicked yet.  If it doesn't his ceiling will be Steve Balboni, and that is if he cuts down considerably on the strikeouts.

Likely 2016 path: In the Rochester OF mix, might make a September call up or earlier depending on injuries and performance. 

ETA: 2016

18 Daniel Palka OF (--)
DOB: 10/28/1991; Age: 24
Positions: RF/1B
Bats: L, Throws: L
Height: 6'2", Weight: 225 lbs
Acquired: Trade with the Arizona Diamondbacks in 2015
Professional Experience: 3; Highest level: A+ (2015)

Daniel Palka was acquired by the Twins from the Arizona Diamondbacks this off-season for C/OF Chris Herrmann.  Palka was the Diamondbacks' third round pick in the 2013 draft.  If the Twins' fans want a comparable, that would be Adam Walker.  Palka is 10 days younger than Walker, has been climbing a step a year in the organization and power is his best tool.  Drafted a season after Walker, his highest level was high A instead of double A, and he hits and throws left.  Palka is a converted first baseman and he is still learning to play the outfield.  Last season in the high A Visalia he hit .280/.352/.532 with 29 HRs, 90 RBI, 24 SB, 56 BB and 164 K (28.5 K%) in 576 PAs. 

Going back to the 1980s, never a Twins' prospect has a season with 29 or more home runs and 24 or more stolen bases.  Palka is a very interesting prospect who might be ranked a bit too low, but I have not seen him play in person, and I am concerned about his strikeouts, which are not as bad as Walker's but definitely a concern point.  An additional concern is that LHPs neutralized him (.213/.285/.352  against LHPs; but he destroyed RHPs .301/.374/.589) which may indicate that there is a possibility that Palka might end up in the strong side of a platoon at some point.

Likely 2016 path:  In the Chattanooga outfield or first base conversation, likely both.

ETA: 2017

17 Lewis Thorpe (11)
DOB: 11/23/1995; Age: 20
Positions: LHP
Bats: R, Throws: R
Height: 6'1", Weight: 160 lbs
Acquired: Signed as an International Free Agent on 7/12/2012
Professional Experience: 2; Highest level: A (2014)

Thorpe was signed on July of 2012 by the Twins to the largest bonus ever given for an Australian player, $500,000.   He spend half of 2014 resting and rehabilitating his left UCL, which eventually required Tommy John surgery that cost him all of 2015.  Thorpe has 4 pitches, including a plus mid 90s fastball and a plus change up, but 2014, even before the injury was somewhat of a disappointment, showing considerable control issues (a career high 4.5 BB/9) and was fairly ineffective (4.52 FIP).   Not much to say about Thorpe at this point, other than wait and see how his elbow turns out, but there is high enough raw staff and potential to be included in the top 20 prospect list at this point, regardless the many question marks. 

Likely 2016 path:  In the Cedar Rapids rotation, with an outside chance to make the Fort Myers rotation, depending on the elbow and performance

ETA: 2019

16 Jake Reed (16)
DOB: 9/29/1992; Age: 23
Positions: RHP
Bats: R, Throws: R
Height: 6'2", Weight: 190 lbs
Acquired: 5th Round Draft Pick 2014
Professional Experience: 2; Highest level: AA (2015)

Reed's 2015 season was a take of two halves:  First 35 games in Chattanooga where he pitched 47 innings with 21 BB (4 BB/9) and 39 K (7.5 K/9, 17.6 K%) resulting in a 6.32 ERA (4.20 FIP) and 1.617 WHIP (.340 BABIP) and his last 10 games in Fort Myers and 10 more in the Arizona Fall League.  where he regained his control (0.7 BB/9 in Fort Myers, 3.4 in AFL) and got hitters out (0.730 and 0.938 WHIP) but still had strikeout issues (5.1 and 8.4 K/9).   Part of his dominance in 2014 and his gain in command and control was due to simplification in his mechanics in comparison to his College days'.  Reed has a dominant fastball, but not much else.  Maybe part of the reason of his numbers' decline was that he was working on improving his change up and breaking ball.  Maybe those are pitchers he will never command.  

Hard to tell where Reed will be this time next season, and it all depends on the development of at least one above average secondary pitch that he can command well.  He was invited in the MLB Spring Training as a non-roster player this Spring.

Likely 2016 path:  Repeat Chattanooga, potential to break into the majors' bullpen depending on development of secondary pitch(es) and the Twins' needs.

ETA: 2017

2016 Twins off-season top 40 prospects list: 21-25

You can find the introductory segment in this series, including my criteria for eligibility to be a prospect and the list of the 2015 top 40 players who graduated as prospects or are not in the system, here.    Here is my 2015 Twins off-season top 40 prospects list (summary of 1-40) for reference.

You can find players 36-40 here, players 31-35 here and players 26-30 here.


25. Ryan Eades RHP (30)
DOB: 12/15/1991; Age: 24
Positions:RHP
Bats: R, Throws: R
Height: 6'2", Weight: 200 lbs
Acquired: 2th Round Draft Pick 2013
Professional Experience: 3; Highest level: A+ (2015)

Eades was drafted by the Twins from Louisiana State in the second round of the 2013 draft.  The Louisiana native has been a slow bloomer in the pros.  I wrote about him in last season's list:

His potential is a mid to top of the rotation starter with four good pitches.  He reported had a plus fastball that sits at 93-95 mph and peaks at 97-98, with good command.  However, the Eades I saw was a good 5 mph below those numbers and was pitching really tentatively. In his 2014 season he started 25 games in Cedar Rapids (133 IP).  He was at an average age with the list and finished with 5.14 ERA (4.44 FIP) 98 Strikeouts and 50 BBs.  His K% fell down to 16.6 %.  His loss in velocity and inability to strike out players his age, further dropped him to number 30 in these rankings. Will likely move to Fort Myers for 2015, but Eades really needs to regain his velocity and start missing bats, because pitching to contact with low 90 mph FB, will result to contact with bad consequences for his teams.

And what did Eades do this year?  He made a liar out of me and was much more effective.  His peripherals were practically the same (16.4% vs 16.6% K%, 7.8% vs 8.5% BB% and even 0.83 vs 0.79 GO:FO) he did have a considerable decrease in WHIP (1.239 vs 1.481) half of which could be accounted from a normalization of the BABIP (.291 vs .323).  However he translated that into results (3.11 ERA vs 5.14 and 3.48 FIP vs 4.44) beyond what a better defense behind him could bring.  Will be interesting to see whether the tentativeness went away and he started pounding the strike zone and/or whether his stuff improved.  Definitely someone to keep and eye on in 2016

Likely 2016 path: In the Chattanooga Rotation

ETA: 2017

24. Luis Arraez IF (40)
DOB: 4/9/1997; Age: 18
Positions: 2B/SS/3B/LF
Bats: L, Throws: R
Height: 5'10", Weight: 155 lbs
Acquired: International Free Agent 11/5/2013
Professional Experience: 1; Highest level: Rookie GCL (2015)

Arraez who rounded out the prospect list last season was signed in the November of 2013 from Venezuela.  He made the jump from the Dominican and the DSL (where he had a phenomenal for the league .833 OPS) to the United States and GCL with ease.  He hit .309/.377/.391 with an impressive 19 to 10 BB:K ratio.  He stole 8 bases and was caught in another 8 times. He flashed signed of gap power hitting 15 doubles and 1 tripe in 233 PAs, but he is not a power hitter.  Plate discipline is one of the hardest skills to learn and Arraez has it, plus his contact tool is good.  This is a great combination for a middle infielder, and Arraez looks like he will settle at second base, where he is average to above average with the glove, turning 19 double plays last season.

Likely 2016 path: Extended Spring Training and at Elizabethton in June

ETA: 2019


23. Engelb Vielma ss (20)
DOB: 6/22/1994; Age: 21
Positions: SS
Bats: S, Throws: R
Height: 5'11", Weight: 150 lbs
Acquired: International Free Agent 9/4/2011
Professional Experience: 4; Highest level: A+ (2015)

Vielma is a very interesting player who could be ranked higher.  The Venezuelan signed by the Twins in 2011 and has been moving really quickly in the organization.  His glove is really great and he has excellent instinct for the game.  When I saw him play for the first time during the 2014 Spring Training, I wrote this for him: 

This is the single one most unknown superstar in the making in the Twins' organization.  He turned two unassisted double plays (one a line out/throw out the other a step on second throw at first) today and he made them seem so easy.  Like it is an everyday kind of thing.  Looks like his contact tool is getting better.  He has crazy nutty speed and as a cutoff guy, he almost threw a guy out at third on a easy triple. Very strong arm.  And he has room to grow.

And I still stand behind that assessment.  The one thing that bothers me about Vielma is not his bat (we will get to the bat in a second;)  it is his occasional lapses in concentration that result in silly mistakes on the field and on the base paths.  This is the single reason he is ranked that low in my list. I am still very high on Vielma and I think that he has the potential of an All-Star shortstop.  Let's not forget that this is the position that has a player with a career .666 OPS in the Hall of Fame.  Not that I am comparing Ozzie Smith's glove to Vielma's, but their bats are comparable.  Vielma hit .270/.321/.306 this season at Fort Myers which at first sight is about the same .266/.313/.323, if not worse, than he did in Cedar Rapids in 2014, until someone looks below the slash lines:  Vielma was the youngest position player at the Miracle team and the Miracle team slash line was .246/.319/.318, so he made better contact than the average. Power is not his strong suit, so looking at SLG% is misleading.  If you look at component numbers, like wRC+, he had 93 in 2015 vs 84 in 2014.   He is also maturing as a player taking advantage of his speed. He will not walk (7% BB%) or strikeout (14.2% K%) but will make contact and run.  He had 24 sacrifices last season, and most of them (18) on the ground. He stole a career high 35 bases (but was caught 12 times).  Definitely Vielma is on the right track, but I still need to see just a little bit more from him.  Playing at AA might tell us a lot about his maturity.

Likely 2016 path: Starting Shortstop at AA Chattanooga, on the 40 man roster in the post-season.

ETA: 2017

22. Jean Carlos Arias (--)
DOB: 1/14/1998; Age: 17
Positions: CF
Bats: L, Throws: L
Height: 5'11", Weight: 170 lbs
Acquired: International Free Agent 7/2/2014
Professional Experience: 1; Highest level: Rookie DSL (2015)

Jean Carlos Arias was signed by the Twins as an International Free Agent from the Dominican Republic the summer of 2014.  In his first professional season in the DSL he hit .311/.378/.537 with 18 BB, 30 K, 13 2B, 9 3B and 2 HRs in 189 PAs.  He was 11/17 in stolen bases.  That .914 OPS is not quite at Miguel Sano level (Sano hit .344/.463/.547 at age 17 in the DSL), but cannot be ignored in a league where the average OPS is .680.  His wOBA was .425 and wRC+ 151, which are also on the ridiculous level.  Reports from the Dominican have the 17 year old Arias, who batted at the number 3 spot for the DSL Twins, is a true 5-tool Centerfielder, which would need to be cofirmed once he starts play in the US, but his numbers cannot be ignored.  One additional thing of note:  Arias destroyed RHPs at the rate of .330/.390/.568.

Likely 2016 path: Extended Spring Training and the starting Centerfielder at the GCL

ETA: 2020

21. Rainis Silva C (24)
DOB: 3/20/1996; Age: 19
Positions: C
Bats: R, Throws: R
Height: 6'1", Weight: 185 lbs
Acquired: International Free Agent 7/9/2013
Professional Experience: 3; Highest level: A (2015)

The Venezuelan Catcher was signed by the Twins as a 16 year old in 2012 for $175,000.  I have not seen enough of John Ryan Murphy or John Hicks yet, but other than those 2 potentially, Silva is the most polished receiver in the Twins' organization.  He could catch a major league staff today.  The problem is his bat.  He was fast tracked by the Twins moving from the DSL to A in just 3 seasons.  It is very encouraging to see that his bat has improved with every stop: .539 OPS in the DSL in 2013, .636 OPS in the GCL in 2014, .635 OPS in Elizabethton and .572 OPS in Cedar Rapids in 2015.  Improvement?  This looks pretty horrible.  Here are a couple of other numbers:  .367/.406/.533 in Elizabethton and .333/.333/.556 in Cedar Rapids.  Those are his slash lines last season against LHP.  He absolutely destroys left hand pitching and this is an improvement this season.  He hit lefties at a .217/.254/.267 pace in GCL and at a .222/.294/.244 pace in the DSL the previous 2 seasons, which means that he is learning and adjusting, an incredibly encouraging sign for an organization not that deep in future Catchers.   Why is he not ranked higher?  He has to prove that he is not a liability against RHP.  If his OPS against righties was closer to .700 than .500 (which is the case now,) his glove is good enough to propel him to top 10 prospect conversation.  Not there yet.

Likely 2016 path: Likely start the season at Cedar Rapids and, depending on his performance and the Twins' Draft, a move to Fort Myers by at least mid-season is a good bet.  I will not be surprised if the Twins have him start the season at Fort Myers.

ETA: 2018

2016 Twins off-season top 40 prospects list: 26-30

You can find the introductory segment in this series, including my criteria for eligibility to be a prospect and the list of the 2015 top 40 players who graduated as prospects or are not in the system, here.    Here is my 2015 Twins off-season top 40 prospects list (summary of 1-40) for reference.

This is the third countdown segment of the 2016 off-season Top 40 Twins'  prospect.  You can find players 36-40 here and players 31-35 here .

.

30. Taylor Rogers (--)

DOB: 12/17/1990; Age: 25

Positions:LHP

Bats: L, Throws: L

Height: 6'3", Weight: 200 lbs

Acquired: 11th Round Draft Pick 2012

Professional Experience: 4; Highest level: AAA (2015)

The Colorado native was selected by the Twins in the 11th Round of the 2012 draft from Kentucky University.  Taylor has a Twin brother, Tyler, who is in the Giants' system (drafted in 2013) and interestingly is right-handed.  To complicate matters, the Giants had a Taylor Rogers pitching in the organization from 2009-2013.  Genetics and homonymy aside, Rogers is an interesting enough pitcher to make this list for the first time. On first sight he is a "solid" middle of the rotation minor leaguer who can keep his team in the game.  His 2015 pitching line with Rochester was: 28 games, 174 IP, 44 BB, 126 K (7.6 K/9; 17.2 K%), 3.98 ERA, 3.21 FIP. Players like this are usually not prospects, especially when they are 25 years old.  There are three things about Rogers that elevate him this season:  

 

• Between Rochester and the Arizona Fall League Rogers pitched 199 Innings in 2015.  This is the most innings pitched by anyone in the Twins' organization at any level last season (Kyle Gibson was second with 194.7) .Rogers did not have a performance drop-off, actually pitching better in September (in both AAA and AFL) than he did in July and August. 
• His stuff and endurance are better that the guy who projects as the number 5 pitcher in the Twins' rotation, Tommy Milone who has never pitched that many innings in a season and last time he reached 190 IP was 4 seasons ago.  This should count for something 
• And most important: Left-handed hitters, might as well sit down when he is pitching.   He has always been great against LHBs, but his 2015 AAA numbers against lefties are out of the charts:  57 IP, 5 BB, 55 K, .177 OBA, 0.68 WHIP, 1.42 ERA, 2.09 GO:FO  These numbers have LH set up man all over them.  

 

His Fastball is his best pitch and sits at 91-93 mph. Has an average slider and changeup as well. A move in the pen might help him increase his velocity and if one of his secondary pitches improves there is a lot of potential here.  Dark horse for being the LH set up man the Twins were supposed to acquire from outside the organization this off-season.

Likely 2016 path:  Since he was added to the 40-man roster to be protected from this season's Rule 5 draft.  Can potentially make the Twins' pen out of Spring Training or be held in reserve at Rochester, if the numbers are not in his favor.  Likely a September call up at worst case scenario.

ETA: 2016

29. Brandon Peterson (27)

DOB: 9/23/1991; Age: 24

Positions: RHP

Bats: R, Throws: R

Height: 6'1", Weight: 190 lbs

Acquired: 13th Round Draft Pick 2013

Professional Experience: 3; Highest level: AA (2015)

Brandon Peterson is a Minnesotan from Savage, who was drafted in the 13rd round of the 2013 draft from Wichita State University.  With a fastball that sits at 95 mph and a slider that is a hair below a plus pitch, Peterson has been able to move up the Twins' organizational ladder in leaps and bounds, striking out the competition and being the closer at each level he pitched.  Until he reached AA as a promotion from Fort Myers at the middle of this season, where he landed to Earth.  In 20 games he pitched 29.3 innings, walking 13 and striking out 33 (10.1 K/9, and 25.4 K%) with a 1.47 WHIP (.354 BABIP) and 3.38 ERA (2.93 FIP.)  In contrast, earlier in the season in A+ he pitched 21 games (31.7 IP), walking 15 and striking out 44 (12.5 K/9 and 36.1% K%) with a 0.92 WHIP (.222 BABIP) and 0.85 ERA (1.81 FIP.)  He held his opponents to a .131 average in Fort Myers and .259 in Chattanooga. It might be that he needs to adjust his approach to be successful against better competition rather than his stuff not playing against better competition.  But the jury is still out and this reason, in addition to the fact that the Twins' system is loaded with RHRPs, is part of the reason that Peterson dropped 2 spots this year compared to last.

Likely 2016 path:  Sharing closer duties in AA, a promotion to AAA is probably depending his success and promotions to the MLB bullpen of AAA pitchers allowing him a path there.

ETA: 2017

28. Brusdar Graterol (--)

DOB: 8/26/1998; Age: 17

Positions: RHP

Bats: R, Throws: R

Height: 6'1", Weight: 180 lbs

Acquired:  International Free Agent 8/27/2014

Professional Experience: 1; Highest level: Rookie/DSL (2015)

I want not untrue when I said that the number 40 prospect, Emmanuel Morel, is a great candidate for being a sleeper prospect who comes out of nowhere and becomes the darling of mainstream media, but this is even more true for Venezuelan, Brusdal Graterol who just turned 17 and has been placed in the Fast Track by the Twins.  Graterol signed for a moderate $150,000 bonus in 2014 just as turned 16 and pitched his age 16 season next summer in the Dominican Republic.  An what he did was opened some eyes wide open after just 4 starts with those numbers:  11 IP, 12 H, 1 BB, 17 K, 2.45 ERA (1.19 FIP), 1.18 WHIP (.444 BABIP).  How wide did those eyes open?  After his first 17 days as a pro, Graterol, who also wins the title of the Twins' prospect with the best name now that Will Hurt is outside the organization, was on a plane to Fort Myers to get acclimated to life in the US and learn English.  I have not seen Graterol pitch, but those numbers for a 16 year old (3 years younger than average DSL age) are extremely impressive.  

Likely 2016 path:  In the Instructional leagues to begin the season and the GCL rotation in June

ETA: 2020+

27. Huascar Ynoa (--)

DOB: 5/28/1998; Age: 17

Positions: RHP

Bats: R, Throws: R

Height: 6'3", Weight: 175 lbs

Acquired:   International Free Agent 7/2/2014

Professional Experience: 1; Highest level: Rookie/DSL (2015)

The Twins signed Huascar Ynoa to an $800,000 bonus on July 2 of 2014 and had his first professional season in DSL the past season as a starter.  He started 14 games (56.7 IP) walked 30 (4.7 BB/9) and struck out 47 (7.5 K/9 and 19.2% K%) with a 2.70 ERA (3.84 FIP) and 1.29 WHIP (.258 BABIP).  Like his 7 year older and 5 inch taller brother Michael, who at some point was the baseball number 20 prospect according to baseball prospectus and now is in the White Sox' organization, consistency is the biggest issue with Huascar Ynoa.  He has 3 pitches (fastball, curve, slider) which all flash above average to potentially plus, but he does not throw them consistently, thus the walks.  He does have a good feel for all his pitches, which suggests that mechanics might be an issue here that can be correctable.  Additional data pointing out to a mechanics issue are his numbers in full wind up when pitching with nobody on:  20.7 IP, 26 H, 24 BB, 15 K for a 2.42 WHIP.  Subtract those from his totals and his numbers when pitching from the stretch position end up like this: 36 IP, 17 H, 6 BB (1.5 BB/9) , 32 K (8 K/9) and 0.639 WHIP, which are absolutely impressive under any and all circumstances.  This, and not genetics, is the reason that Ynoa is ranked that high in my prospects list, and his numbers on full delivery is the reason he is ranked that low.

Likely 2016 path:  Extended Spring Training and move to the GCL rotation in June

ETA: 2020

26. Lachlan Wells (--)

DOB: 2/27/1997; Age: 18

Positions: LHP

Bats: L, Throws: L

Height: 5'8", Weight: 163 lbs

Acquired:   International Free Agent 8/14/2014

Professional Experience: 1; Highest level: Rookie/GSL (2015)

The Twins signed the diminutive Australian as an International Free Agent in August of 2014 and made his debut in the Gulf Coast League in 2015.   He played in 10 games (9 GS) and pitched 47.3 innings, walking 11 (2.1 BB/9) and striking out 49 (9.3 K/9, 26.5% K%) for a 2.09 ERA (3.22 FIP) and 0.97 WHIP (.263 BABIP).  Size is a Concern with Wells, but he is just 18.  He throws an above average 92-93 mph fastball, a work in progress curveball and a changeup that is close to plus and is his out pitch.  So far his spits against lefties and righties are about similar with only one big difference:  He produces 5 times as many ground balls against lefties that he does against righties.  It could be the more frequent use of the changeup, but it is an interesting data point.  It is too early to tell whether the pen or the rotation is in Wells' future, but a plus changeup at 18 is nothing to scoff at.  We will know more as he develops in the Twins' organization.

Likely 2016 path: Extended Spring Training and likely in the Elizabethton rotation in June, depending on the 2016 Twins' draft.

ETA: 2020+

2016 Twins off-season top 40 prospects list: 31-35

You can find the introductory segment in this series, including my criteria for eligibility to be a prospect and the list of the 2015 top 40 players who graduated as prospects or are not in the system, here.    Here is my 2015 Twins off-season top 40 prospects list (summary of 1-40) for reference.

This is the second countdown segment of the 2016 off-season Top 40 Twins'  prospect.  You can find the first segment, players 36-40 here.


35. Yorman Landa (--)
DOB: 6/11/1994; Age: 21
Positions: RHP
Bats: R, Throws: R
Height: 6'0", Weight: 165 lbs
Acquired: International Free Agent 9/3/2010
Professional Experience: 5; Highest level: A (2014, 2015)

Yorman Landa was signed by the Twins as an International Free Agent on September of 2010.  It is fairly telling that the 21 year old Venezuelan has 5 professional seasons under his belt, yet he is younger than half of the Twins 2015 draft class.  This is the first time in those 5 years that Landa cracked my top 40 prospect list, part of the reason being that he was a 2 pitch starter/long reliever and the Twins did not know what they wanted to do with him. Add to this a shoulder surgery in the summer of 2014 and very slow climbing of the organizational steps, and does not make a great case for inclusion in a prospect list.  What happened?  The Twins decided in 2014 that he really belongs to the pen, and moved there in Cedar Rapids that season with good results.  After the surgery, he recovered completely and returned to Cedar Rapids with a new delivery from a lower arm angle that produces a mid-90s fastball with nasty movement and cleaned up some of his secondary pitches.  He pitched 27 innings in 15 games, producing an 1.67 ERA (3.47 FIP) and and 1.19 WHIP (.258) BABIP.  He walked 4 and struck out 31 (10.33 K/9 & 27% K%).  The Twins are thinking highly of him and added him to their 40 man roster to protect him from this years' Rule 5 Draft.  I think that he is still a work in progress because he still works too many and needs at least one convincing secondary pitch, but that Fastball and the new delivery has opened some eyes.

Likely 2016 path:  Will be with the big club this Spring Training as part of the 40-man roster and then likely pitch for Fort Myers. 

ETA: 2018

34.  Fernardo Romero (37)
DOB: 12/24/1994; Age: 21
Positions: RHP
Bats: R, Throws: R
Height: 6'0", Weight: 215 lbs
Acquired: International Free Agent 11/4/2011
Professional Experience: 4; Highest level: A (2014)

Fernando Romero was signed by the Twins as an International Free Agent on November of 2011. The Dominican right hander has misses all of 2015 and most of the 2014 recovering from Tommy John surgery.   Here is what I wrote about him last year:

After spending the 2012 season in the Dominican Summer League, he made the jump to the Gulf Coast League in 2013.  He pitched in 12 games (6 GS) for 45 innings to a 1.60 ERA and had 47 strikeouts and only 13 bases on balls.  His WHIP was 1.00 and K% a very impressive 26, while his K/BB was 3.62. He missed 2014 with Tommy John surgery.   It will be interesting to see how Romero will rebound in his age 20 season. He had a heavy fastball is in the mid to low 90s and barely adequate supplementary stuff.  Romero does have mid rotation potential, depending on development of his secondary pitches and staying healthy.    He will likely begin 2015, his age 19 season, in Cedar Rapids where he will alternate between the rotation and pen until extended. 

He did not make it on a professional field in 2015, but expecting to return in full force in 2016.  One thing that needs to be remarked is his ability to hide the ball really well from both lefties and righties and throwing a Carlos Silva - like heavy sinker.  Time will tell how he will move on, but the potential is still there as long as he stays healthy. 

Likely 2016 path:  Will be eased into the Cedar Rapids bullpen and depending on success move on to Fort Myers in the middle of the season.  Likely will stay in the pen the whole season.

ETA: 2019

33. Chris Paul (--)

DOB: 10/12/1992; Age: 23

Positions: 1B/3B/OF

Bats: R, Throws: R

Height: 6'3", Weight: 200 lbs

Acquired: 6th Round Draft Pick 2015

Professional Experience: 1; Highest level: A (2015)

Chris Paul was drafted by the Twins in the 6th round of this years' draft from University of California Berkeley.  The California native was a polished hitter in College.  He hit .321/.406/.509 in the summer of 2014 in the wooden bat Northwoods Summer College League playing for St Cloud Rox (he played there for 3 summers, so he has been well-scouted by the Twins).  Continued hitting .325/.404/.562 in 2015 for Berkely and did not miss a bit by turning pro, hitting .302/.375/.488 in 96 PAs for Elizabethton earning a promotion to Cedar Rapids, where he ran out of gas hitting .244/.277/.356 in 12 games.  Not much of a home run thread at this point, but he does have double power to the opposite field.  Long swing makes him vulnerable to breaking balls, but it is fixable.  The Catch-22 with Paul is that he does not have a position.  He played pretty much everywhere but Catcher in College and High School, and all corner infield and outfield positions in the pros.  He was named in the Pac 12 all defense team, so his defense is not a liability.  His versatility might allow him to make it to the Bigs earlier as a utility player, but that would be his ceiling. On the other hand, players like Ryan Zobrist and Daniel Murphy are making a good living out of it.  

Likely 2016 path:  Will start the season as a utility player in Cedar Rapids.

ETA: 2018

32. Kolton Kendrick (--)

DOB: 8/10/1996; Age: 19

Positions: 1B/DH

Bats: L, Throws: R

Height: 6'3", Weight: 225 lbs

Acquired: 8th Round Draft Pick 2015

Professional Experience: 1; Highest level: Rookie/GCL (2015)

Kolton Kendrick  was drafted by the Twins in the 8th round of this years' draft from Oak Forest (LA) Academy.  He fell to the Twins in the 8th round, while considered a top 100 player in the draft, by many insiders, including top 62nd by Baseball America.  Kendrick who played his senior season in High School with a wooden bat, has plus plus power and great plate selectivity for a teenager.  He walked 50 times in his senior season in High School.  As a pro in 24 games (89 PAs) in the Gulf Coast League, he hit .200/.371/.271 with 18 BB, and 24 K, 3 doubles and a triple.  Kendrick, generously listed at 225 lbs, is a work in progress with the glove and how he will respond to breaking balls and changeups in the pros, is still up for discussion.  He is a lot like Kennys Vargas was that age, if you could imagine Vargas as an exclusively left hand hitter, with bright red hair and freckles. Now that Miguel Sano is a big leaguer, Kendrick has the highest power potential in the Twins' minors organization, and being a lefty, is something they have been missing for the Twins, since Justin Morneau departed.   Getting consistent swings, staying in shape and improving his fielding will help him get in the majors earlier, but he is playing a position that the Twins have a couple long term answers in the majors in Joe Mauer and Byung Ho Park and Vargas in the High Minors.  

Likely 2016 path:  Will start the season in Extended Spring Training and be the starting 1B at Elizabethton once that League starts play.

ETA: 2020+

31. LaMonte Wade (--)

DOB: 1/1/1994; Age: 22

Positions: CF

Bats: L, Throws: L

Height: 6'1", Weight: 195 lbs

Acquired: 9th Round Draft Pick 2015

Professional Experience: 1; Highest level: A (2015)

LaMonte Wade was drafted by the Twins in the 9th round of this years' draft from University of Maryland.  Wade's 2015 practically came out of nowhere.  Before 2015 he was regarded as a glove-first Centerfielder with excellent strike zone judgement but many contact issues.  In 2014 as a Sophomore for Maryland he hit .247/.358/.335 (62 games) and for the Brewster Whitecaps of the Cape Cod League .145/.351/.200 in 21 games.  Then something clicked:  In his Junior (and final College) season he hit .335/.453/.468 in 42 games and in his first pro season in Elizabethton, he hit .312/.432/.506 in 64 games (284 PAs) with 8 doubles, 5 triples, 8 HRs, 12/13 SBs, 46 BB and 34 K.  He played 4 games in Cedar Rapids. Between College and Pros, he finished the season with 13 HRs and 19 SBs.  Quick wrists, excellent eye, decent power and speed, very good Centerfield play and hitting and throwing as a lefty have had some people drawing Denard Span comparisons.  However the truth of the matter is that Span has less power, speed, and strike zone judgement than Wade and has never had a season like Wade's 2015.  It will be interesting to see how Wade's hitting will stand against better and better competition, but he has a very high ceiling in a position in need in the Twins' organization.

Likely 2016 path:  Will start the season as the starting Centerfielder for Cedar Rapids.

ETA: 2018

2016 Twins off-season top 40 prospects list: 36-40

You can find the introductory segment in this series, including my criteria for eligibility to be a prospect and the list of the 2015 top 40 players who graduated as prospects or are not in the system, here.    Here is my 2015 Twins off-season top 40 prospects list (summary of 1-40) for reference.

Without further ado, here is the 2016 countdown of prospects, with their ranking in the 2015 list in parenthesis :

40. Emmanuel Morel (--)
DOB: 5/4/1997; Age: 18
Positions: SS/2B
Bats: R, Throws: R
Height: 5'10", Weight: 150 lbs
Acquired: International Free Agent 4/8/2013
Professional Experience: 2; Highest level: Rookie/DSL (2014, 2015)

Every season in this prospect list, I include prospects who are traditionally bypassed by many (because they have not played games in the US) and ended up picked up by the mainstream media a season or two afterwards. Last season it was Jermaine Palacios at 36; This season is Emmanuel Morel at 40, who has already 2 professional seasons under his belt before his 19th birthday.  In 2015 he alternated games between the 2 middle infield positions with 17 year old Yeltsin Encarnacion for the Dominican Summer League  Twins.   In a league dominated by pitchers he hit  .282/.428/.370 (.798 OPS), had 51 singles, 6 doubles, 5 triples in 230 plate appearances.  He struck out 43 times and walked 46 times.  He also stole 24 bases in 35 attempts.    In other words, he reached base 43% of the time, walking more than striking out, he attempted a stole base in about 41% of his opportunities and he was successful 69% of the time.  This is pretty impressive at any level of professional ball at any age in the twenty first century.  You cannot teach plate selectivity and you have to have the guts to be aggressive.   If Morel continues those traits when he will cross the Tropic of Cancer, and he shows signs of reliability with the glove, the Twins will have another good middle infield prospect from Latin America in their pipeline.

Likely 2016 path:  Will start the season in Extended Spring Training, get used to live in the US in the Twins' Fort Myers Complex and join the Gulf Coast League Twins when they start playing games after the 2016 draft

ETA: 2020+

39. Trey Cabbage (--)


DOB: 5/3/1997; Age: 18
Positions: SS/3B/LF/RF
Bats: L, Throws: R
Height: 6' 3", Weight: 190 lbs
Acquired: 4th Round Draft Pick 2015
Professional Experience: 1; Highest level: Rookie/GCL (2015)

Trey Cabbage was the Twins' fourth round draft pick in the past draft from Grainger (TN) High School and is a day older from the number 40 prospect, Emmanuel Morel.  Mostly a shortstop in High School, he moved all over the field in his first pro season with the Gulf Coast League.  He was projected to play third base, but it will still be a work in progress, because his first try in the position (6 errors in 21 games) was not as smooth as hoped.   His transition to the wooden bat has been painful as well, hitting .252/.302/.269 with only 2 doubles as extra base hits, 7 walks and 37 strikeouts in 129 PAs.  Stole one base and was caught 5 times.   A small sample size ray of hope:  He hit He hit .350/.435/.350 overall in 20 ABs against LHPs and finished the season .321/.310/.321 in 28 August ABs.    The transition to the wooden bat is not a small feat for an 18 year old and Cabbage does get the benefit of the double.  Will likely work several positions in the low minor leagues to find a position that he is a good fit defensively.  Before the draft he was touted as one of the "sweetest" left hand swings, since you know who, but still have to see this.  Cabbage was a multi-sport player (Football and Basketball) and also pitched in High School, and some focus and taking time off this winter might help him a lot.

Likely 2016 path:  Starting in Extended Spring Training and focusing of figuring out which position might be the best fit for him and then playing there in the GCL.

ETA: 2020+



38. Travis Blankenhorn (--)
DOB: 8/3/1996; Age: 19
Positions: 3B/1B
Bats: L, Throws: R
Height: 6' 1", Weight: 195 lbs
Acquired: 3th Round Draft Pick 2015
Professional Experience: 1; Highest level: Rookie/Elizabethton (2015)

Travis Blakenhorn, was drafted in the third round of the 2015 draft from Pottstown (PA) High School, and like Trey Cabbage, is a left hitting third baseman who started the season and his professional career in the GCL.  Unlike Cabbage he has some success with the bat, .245/.362/.408, 4 doubles, 2 triples, 7 walks and 11 strikeouts in 58 PAs, allowing the Twins to move him up a level at Elizabethton in the middle of July.  In Elizabethton, he started on fire hitting .321/.387/.482  for July, and then leveled off, ending up the season in the Appalachian League hitting .243/.306/.326 with 3 doubles, 3 HRs, 11 BBs and 32 Ks in 158 PAs.  Was effectively neutralized by LHP (.172/.250/.310,) but, again, the transition from aluminum to wood is not an easy one.   Blakenhorn projects as a power hitter and he flashed some.  Has a solid powerful build that would allow him to play at either infield corner, but his strong arm has him a better fit at third or at a corner outfield position.   Blakenhorn picked up some Alex Gordon comparisons, but that is a bit of reaching at this point.  Fellow Twins' prospects, Travis Harrison and the gentleman whose profile follows, might be better comparables for now...

Likely 2016 path: Starting at Extended Spring Training, then the starting third baseman in Elizabethton as soon as Appalachian League play starts in June.

ETA: 2020

37. Niko Goodrum (--)

DOB: 2/28/1992; Age: 23
Positions: 3B/SS/CF
Bats: S, Throws: R
Height: 6' 3", Weight: 198 lbs
Acquired: 2nd Round Draft Pick 2010
Professional Experience: 6; Highest level: AA (2015)

 I have to admit, Niko Goodrum frustrates me.  Has a ton of potential and never put it together in six professional seasons.  As a matter of fact, he has been in an out in my top 40 prospect list for the last 3 years.  Why is he in again?  In a second, bit of history first: Niko Goodrum was drafted 71nd overall in the 2010 draft (a spot after Braves', and now Angels', Andrelton Simmons who has 4 seasons in the majors and a couple gold gloves.)  That was the Alex Wimmers draft.   Goodrum's career slash line is .244/.337/.357 and he has not been deviating by more that 0.30 or so in any of its components in his six seasons as a pro (other than his short first season of .414 OPS.)     In other words he has been pretty average, or below average, at any level, which does not a good prospect make.  So why is he back here again?  Three reasons:

• When he moved to Chatanooga in the middle of the season, he improved his approach as a hitter.  He hit .244/.332/.392 with 6 doubles, 5 triples, 5 HRs, 28 BBs, and 51 K in 238 PAs, in a league where .700 OPS is the average.
• Sustained improvement in base running and base stealing and considerable jump in power:  Goodrum stole 20, 35 and 29 bases the last 3 seasons.  He was 18 for 22 in Chatanooga this season.  In addition, he hit a career high 9 HRs, more than doubling his previous best (4).
• He might have actually found a position he can play and be above average.  He was drafted as a shortstop, and played most of his first 3 seasons there very erratically.  He was transferred to third base the last 3 seasons with similar results.  However, Doug Mientkiewitz and serendipity (not many OFs in the organization) had him at Centerfield for 15 games, in which he was a good centerfielder and better with the bat when played there.  Maybe the game slowed down enough at OF for him.

So there is enough potential and intrigue to believer that Niko Goodrum might actually make a major league centerfielder some day, if the Twins continue using him there, which they should.  So Goodrum makes the list as an outfielder.

Likely 2016 path:  Depending on where Byron Buxton ends up, likely the starting Centerfielder for Chatanooga.

ETA: 2017

36. Kuo Hua Lo (--)
DOB: 10/28/1992; Age: 23
Positions: RHP
Bats: R, Throws: R
Height: 5' 10", Weight: 195 lbs
Acquired: International Free Agent 6/10/2011
Professional Experience: 4; Highest level: Rookie/Elizabethton (2013-2015)

Lo was signed by the Twins as an International Free Agent from Taiwan at age 18, 4 seasons ago and has shown steady improvement to be regarded as a top 40 prospect, with a near breakout 2015 season.  He pitched 31.3 innings with a 1.44 ERA (2.75 FIP) allowing 15 hits, 8 walks (0.734 WHIP) and had 43 strikeouts (12.4 K/9 and 36.4 K%) and was the primary closer for Elizabethton.  On the downside he was a year and a tad older than the league average, his BABIP was .213, and he was threepeating Elizabethton, but BABIP does not affect the strikeouts, he made the transition from Taiwan to the US as a teenager and that 36.4% K is impressive at any level, making me think that he actually got "it".  What is "it"?   A second above average pitch. Lo has had an above average to plus fastball with good downward movement, which can reach 94 mph or so, but the rest of his repertoire was hit and miss.  Reports out of Elizabethton have him throwing a "filthy" off-speed pitch, which sounds like an above average change up or slurve, but regardless, it is apparently effective.   Still have to see it in person, so I reserve judgement, but there is a lot of potential there to worth inclusion in this list.

Likely 2016 path:  Cedar Rapids Kernels' bullpen and co-closer

ETA: 2018

2016 Twins Top 40 Prospects list: Introduction

It might not feel it, the way the wind is blowing outside, but Catchers and Pitchers report to Fort Myers in less that 50 days, so it is about time that I post the 2016 Twins off-season top 40 prospects list.   As in other times, I will be posting it in groups of 5 players counting down from 40 to 1.   But this year, I felt like an introductory post is needed, because of 2 reasons:

• To remind you that my criteria for eligibility for players to be in this top 40 prospect list is different than most people, and it is very simple:  You played in The Show, you are not a prospect.   So all the players who have played in the majors are not included in this list.
• Because of these strict criteria, this list will look a lot different that the 2015 list.

As a reminder, here is was 2015 offseason Twins' top 40 prospects list:

1. Miguel Sano 3B
2. Jorge Polanco SS
3. Byron Buxton OF
4. Alex Meyer RHP
5. Jose Berrios RHP

6. Amaurys Minier 1B/3B/OF
7. Kohl Stewart RHP
8. Eddie Rosario OF
9. Lewin Diaz 1B
10. Nick Burdi RHP

11. Lewis Thorpe LHP
12  Nick Gordon SS
13. Stephen Gonsalves LHP
14. Travis Harrison OF/3B
15. Max Kepler OF/1B

16. Jake Reed RHP
17. Mitch Garver C
18. Chih-Wei Hu RHP
19. Jorge Fernandez C
20. Engelb Vielma SS

21. Adam Walker OF
22. Levi Michael 2B
23. Mike Cederoth RHP
24. Rainis Silva C
25. Alexis Tapia RHP

26. Max Murphy OF 
27. Brandon Peterson RHP
28. Stuart Turner C 
29. Felix Jorge RHP 
30. Ryan Eades RHP

31. Aaron Slegers RHP 
32. Randy Rosario  RHP 
33. Zach Larson OF
34. Todd Van Steensen RHP
35. Mat Batts LHP

36. Jermaine Palacios IF 
37. Fernardo Romero RHP 
38. Tyler Kuresa 1B 
39. Moises Gomez RHP 
40. Luis Arraez IF 

And here is who dropped:

Graduated: Miguel Sano 3B (1), Jorge Polanco SS (2), Byron Buxton OF (3), Alex Meyer RHP (4), Eddie Rosario OF (8), Max Kepler OF/1B (12)

Traded: Chih-Wei Hu RHP (18),  Alexis Tapia RHP (25)

Released: Tyler Kuresa 1B (38)

Retired: Mat Batts LHP (35)

Exactly 10 players, of 25% of last seasons' list, including the Twins' 4 top prospects.  

So expect a very different 2016 prospects list this winter

The Grinch who Stole the Twins' Christmas

Park? No. There is another Twins' player perfecting his bat flip (VIDEO)

Making sense of the Twins new crop of minor league signees

Over the weekend the Twins signed 6 new minor league free agents:  RHRPs David Martinez,  Raul Fernandez, and  Marcus Walden,  IF Leonardo Reginatto, OF Keury De La Cruz, and  C Jose Ortiz.   Let's examine each of them

RHP David Martinez ( 28 years old, 6'2", 220 lbs) was signed by the Astros as a sixteen year old International Free Agent in 2005.  He needed 4 seasons in the Venezuelan Summer League before he crossed the border as a 21 year old.  At that point he climbed fast the Astros organization going from Rookie ball to a cup of coffee in the majors in 4 seasons.  Fastball (low 90s), slider, change reliever, with mixed results that were better in the lower minors.  His career AAA numbers (3 seasons) are 5.77 ERA, 1.617 WHIP, 6.5 K/9 and 4.3 BB/9.  He does have the excuse of pitching in the Pacific Coast League, but lots of pitchers pitch there with better results.  Organizational depth signing at this point with not much upside.

RHP Raul Fernandez (25 years old, 6'2", 180 lbs) was signed by the Rockies as a seventeen year old International Free Agent out of the Dominican.  He was signed as a Catcher and converted to a pitcher his second professional season.  Moved to the States in 2011 as a 21 year old and he has been moving slowly up the minors.  Was traded to the White Sox the 2014 season.   In his only AA season in 2015 (Southern League) he pitched late in the games for the Birmingham Barons appearing in 36 games (61.3 IP) with a 4.26 ERA, 1.288 WHIP, 6.6 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9.   Organizational depth, with just a tick or two of upside.

RHP Marcus Walden (27 years old, 6'0", 180 lbs) was drafted by the Blue Jays in the 9th round of the 2007 draft from Fresno City College.  After 2 seasons in low levels, he lost 2 seasons with elbow issues, one trying the rest and relaxation bit, before he head the surgery the next.   Coming back from the surgery he was a better pitcher, but pitched in A and high A teams that were too young for his age at that point.    When he moved to AA and AAA in the subsequent seasons he had trouble getting hitters out.  Moved to the A's organization in 2014 and to the Independents in 2015 before signed up by Cincinnati to pitch a single AA game (3 IP).   Organizational depth at this point, with not much upside.

IF Leonardo Reginatto (RHB, 25 years old, 6'2", 180 lbs) is a Brazilian who was signed at 18 as an International Free Agent by the Rays and had spent all of his career with that organization.  He has played mostly at SS and 3B, and a few games at 2B and LF.    Mostly a utility player in the minors; he made it up to AAA for a half season in 2015.  Career .286/.346/.351  slash line with 8 HRs and 48 SB in 7 MiLB seasons.  Organizational depth, but there might be something there.

Keury De La Cruz (24 years old, LHB, 5'11", 170 lbs) was signed by the Red Sox as a 16 year old International Free Agent out of the Dominican in 2008 and moved pretty fast in their system.   He can play all OF positions, including Centerfield.  He opened some eyes in 2012 when he hit .308/.352/.536 with 19 HRs and 19 SB (506 PAs) as a 20 year old for A Class Greenville (South Atlantic League).  2013 at High A was unremarkable, but he rebounded in 2014 in an injury shortened season in AA: .295/.327/.434 7 HRs and 3 SB (275 PAs).  He repeated AA last season with not that great results:  .240/.282/.375, 9 HRs, 3 SBs (433 PAs).  Could potentially be a change of scenery candidate.  He is still young, and had great results before, so worth a second look.  His biggest issue is a pretty violent inconsistent swing that tends to get a lot of strikeouts.  Needs work with his routes at the outfield.


C Jose Ortiz (RHB, 21 years old, 5'11", 205 lbs).  Ortiz was drafted by the Reds in the 17th round of the 2012 draft from Puerto Rico.  He is very young, and he has played that last 2 seasons in Dayton of the Midwest League, so he is familiar to some Twins.   He is very young but not very good, hitting just  .199/.239/.321 with 6 HRs and 0 SB (309 PAs) in those 2 seasons in the Midwest League.   Hard to see why the Twins signed him, other than replacing the equally bad but older Michael Quesada who was released last week.