The best to ever play for the Twins by letter

Turning my attention off the shimmering off-season hot stove, a couple of days ago, I created a subjective list of the best baseball people to ever wear a particular Twins’ uniform number.

In the same spirit, I am presenting a list of the best Twins’ players whose last names begin with a particular letter.Unlike the previous list, this list includes players only. So the ABCs are slightly different than the 123s.

The premise is similar: who is the best (i.e. best overall performance as a player, not only as a Twin) to ever play for the Twins and his last name starts with a particular letter. The complete list of all the Twins' players can be found here. It also includes all Washington Senators players as well as players who were in the Twins’ 40-man roster even if they did not play a single inning in the majors (but these players are not included in the list below - but, if you wait, a whole player ranking - and that will be objective - in the Franchise Series is coming up either this weekend or next week).

Here is the list (I use the parenthesis to indicate close seconds and specifics about the particular letter like how many players’ last names started with that letter. No Twin -or Senator for that matter- had a last name that started with the letter X) Asterisks denote MLB Hall of Fame members, the positions and years with the Twins' Franchise are indicated. I am sure that there are some surprises, and I do encourage discussion:

A - Bob Allison (OF) 1958-1970
B - *Bert Blyleven (P) 1970-1976, 1985-1988
C - *Rod Carew (IF) 1967-1978 (close over P *Steve Carlton)
D - Chili Davis (OF/DH) 1991-1992
E - Scott Erickson (P) 1990-1995
F - Brian Fuentes (P) 2010
G - Gary Gaetti (3B) 1981-1990
H - Kent Hrbek (1B) 1981-1994
I - Riccardo Ingram (OF/DH) 1995 (only 2 players; the other C Hank Izquierdo)
J - Jacque Jones (OF) 1999-2005, 2010
K - *Harmon Killebrew (IF) 1954-1974
L - Francisco Liriano (P) 2004- (close over OF Matt Lawton)
M - *Paul Molitor (DH) 1996-1998
N - Joe Nathan (P) 2004-2011
O - Tony Oliva (OF) 1962-1976 (close over 1B/DH Dave Ortiz)
P - *Kirby Puckett (OF) 1984-1995
Q - Frank Quilici (IF) 1965-1970 (only 3 players; others: 3B Tom Quinlan & 3B Luis Quinones)
R - Brad Radke (P) 1995-2006
S - Johan Santana (P) 2000-2008
T - Jim Thome (DH) 2010-2011
U - Ted Uhlaender (OF) 1965-1969 (only 2 players; the other 1B Scott Ullger, yes that Scott Ulger)
V - Frank Viola (P) 1982-1989 (close over Zoilo Versalles)
W - *Dave Winfield (OF) 1993-1994
X - no players
Y - Delmon Young (OF) 2007-2011 (only 2 players; the other P Rich Yett)
Z - Geoff Zahn (P) 1977-1980 (only 3 players; others: P Bill Zepp, C Jerry Zimmerman)

Pretty good 24 man roster; what do you think?

The best to ever wear a particular Twins' uniform number (by number)

The hot stove has been shimmering these days in preparation for next week's Winter Meetings (even though I do not have it beyond the Twins to announce that they have signed someone like Johnathan Broxton to an one year contract soon,) so here is a list I did just for fun.

The premise is simple: who is the best (i.e. best overall performance as a player, manager, coach, esecutive etc, not only with the Twins and not only when wore that particular uniform number) to ever wear a particular Twins' uniform number. If a particular person wore multiple numbers he qualifies for all numbers.

The complete list of all the Twins' players and coaches and their uniform number can be found here. (So please go over there and tell me whether I should have included someone else in my list.)

Some numbers are easy, because there is only one person who wore them. An "*" denotes place in MLB HOF, an "^" the only Twin to wear than particular number.

Here is the list (n parenthesis the years the person listed wore that number) :

^0 Junior Ortiz, 1990-91
1 Luis Castillo, 2006-07
2 Zoilo Versalles, 1961-67
3 *Harmon Killebrew, 1961-74
4 *Paul Molitor, 1996-98 2000-01, 2003 (Coach)
5 Michael Cuddyer, 2001-11
6 Tony Oliva, 1964-75, 1976 (Player-Coach) 1977-78, 1985-91 (Coach)
7 Joe Mauer, 2004-11
8 Gary Gaetti, 1982-90
9 Gene Larkin, 1987-93
10 Tom Kelly, 1987-2001 (Manager)
11 Chuck Knoblauch, 1991-97
12 Cesar Tovar, 1965-72
13 Todd Walker, 1996
14 Kent Hrbek, 1982-94
15 Al Worthington, 1964-68
16 Frank Viola, 1982-89
17 Camilo Pascual, 1961-66
18 Don Baylor, 1987
19 Scott Erickson, 1991-95
20 Billy Beane, 1986-87
21 Eric Milton, 2000-03
22 Brad Radke, 1996-2006
23 Jim Lemon, 1961-63
24 Shane Mack, 1990-94
25 Jim Thome, 2010-11
26 Kent Hrbek, 1981
27 David Ortiz, 1997-2002
28 *Bert Blyleven, 1970-76, 1985-88
29 *Rod Carew, 1967-78
30 Steve Howe, 1985
31 Jim Perry, 1963-72
32 *Dave Winfield, 1993-94
33 Justin Morneau, 2006-11
34 *Kirby Puckett, 1984-95
35 Graig Nettles, 1967
36 Jim Kaat, 1961-73
37 Tony Oliva, 1962-63
38 *Steve Carlton, 1987-88
39 Gary Gaetti, 1981
40 Steve Bedrosian, 1991
41 Tom Kelly, 1983-86 (Coach) Tom Kelly, 1986 (Manager)
42 Camilo Pascual, 1978-80 (Coach) - does not count honorary wearing
43 Rick Stelmaszek, 1981-2011 (Coach)
44 Chili Davis, 1991-92
45 Terry Mulholland, 2004-05
46 Scott Erickson, 1990
47 *Early Wynn, 1967-69 (Coach)
48 Torii Hunter, 1997-2007
49 Kyle Lohse, 2001-06
50 Jesse Orosco, 2003
51 Dave Engle, 1981
52 Jim Lemon, 1965-67 (Coach)
53 Joe Mays, 1999-2000
54 Sam Mele, 1961 (Coach)
55 Clyde McCullough, 1961 (Coach)
56 Jose Parra, 1995-96
57 Johan Santana, 2000-07
58 Hector Carrasco, 1998-2001
59 Brad Radke, 1995
60 Jon Rauch, 2009-10
61 Livan Hernandez, 2008
62 Al Newman, 2002-05 (Coach)
63 Joe Benson, 2011
64 Eric Rasmussen, 2009 (Coach)
^65 Nelson Prada, 2011 (Coach)
^66 Steve Liddle, 1999 (Coach)
^67 Rick Knapp, 1999, 2006 (Coach)
68 Phil Roof, 2000 (Coach)
^69 Stan Cliburn, 2007 (Coach)
^70 Stu Cliburn, 2005 (Coach)
^71 Joe Roa, 2004
^72 Pat Neshek, 2006
75 Aron Amundson, 2002-06 (Bullpen catcher)
^77 Tony Batista, 2006
^78 Bobby Cuellar, 2003-04 (Coach)
^81 Riccardo Ingram, 2008 (Coach)


What do you think?

Twins liabilities in the Rule 5 draft

Every year at the winter meetings the Rule 5 draft occurs. This draft (the one that brought Johan Santana to the Minnesota Twins) has 3 parts. The major league part, the AAA part and the AA part. I will try to explain the rules of all 3, because, even though there is a decent understanding of the MLB part of the draft (if someone is not on the 40-man roster can be selected and has to be on the 25-roster for the next full season or to return to his original team,) there seems to be confusion on the minor league part about eligibility. Let's start with the rules:

• Every player not on the 40-man roster, is eligible for all 3 parts of the draft, if a. he was 18 or younger when signed and signed before 2007 or b. 19 or older and signed before 2008.


• For the MLB part, every player not on the 40-man roster qualifies for the draft.
  It gets a bit tricky in the AAA and AA parts (and here is a link from MiLB.com that explains some things) but the story is something like this: For every minor league level, there is what is called the reserve roster (38 in AAA, 37 in AA, and 35 on each A and Rookie ball teams). Players who satisfy the age and contract length requirements who are not on the AAA reserve roster are subject to the AAA part of the draft. Players who satisfy the age and contract requirements who are on the AA (and AAA) reserve roster are subject to the AA part of the draft. This is regardless whether they are in a lower reserve roster. ie. if a player is on a team's AA reserve roster (and not on a AAA roster) and satisfies the age requirements, he is subject to the AAA part of the rule 5 draft.


• Players selected on the MLB part of the draft have to be on the 25 man (active roster) for the whole season. Players selected in the AAA part of the draft have to be in the AAA reserve roster for the whole season and players selected in the AAA part of the draft have to be in the AAA reserve roster for the whole season. Unlike in the majors, a player can be in a higher level reserve roster and play in a lower level in the minors. So a Twins' player in the Fort Myers' reserve roster can be selected by another team, added to their AA reserve roster and still play A ball

Here is a list of the Twins' players eligible for the Rule 5 draft. Players in bold are players who can potentially be selected in the MLB portion and players in italics are players who can potentially be selected in the AAA and AA parts, if they are not protected in the corresponding reserve roster. All the minor league free agent signings are also subject to the Rule 5 draft, but I did not include most of them here (age in 2011 season, position, leagues and performance are included) :

Andrew Albers (25, LHS/R) A+/AA 2.16 ERA, 95.2 IP, 1.108 WHIP, 7.5 K/9, 5.71 K/BB
James Beresford (22, LH IF) A+ .270/.328/.299, 545 PA
Evan Bigley (24, RH OF) AA .253/.311/.378, 536 PA
David Bromberg (23, RHS) Rk/AA 6.43 ERA, 42 IP, 1.738 WHIP, 6 K/9, 1.56 K/BB (coming back from injury, up to AAA in 2010)
Chris Cates (26, RH IF) AA .205/.258/.245, 220 PA
Ray Chang (27, RH IF) Rk/AA/AAA .271/.323/.368 266 PA
Cole DeVries (26, RHS/R) AA/AAA 3.40 ERA, 90 IP, 1.267 WHIP, 7.5 K/9, 3.26 K/BB
Brian Dinkelman (27, RH UT) AAA/MLB MLB: .301/.346/.315, 78 PA; AAA: .243/.316/.324, 526 PA
Mark Dolenc (26, RH OF) AA 266/.323/.347, 418 PA
Phil Dumatrait (29, RHR) MLB/AAA 3.92 ERA, 41.1 IP, 1.694 WHIP, 6.3 K/9, 1.16 K/BB
Nelvin Fuentes (22, LHR) A 3.29 ERA, 38.1 IP, 1.070 WHIP, 10.1 K/9, 3.91 K/BB
Jhon Garcia (24, RHS/R) A+ 3.82 ERA, 77.2 IP, 1.442 WHIP, 7.2 K/9, 2.07 K/BB
Jonathan Goncalves (22 RH OF) A/A_ .231/.340/.298, 346 PA
Pedro Guerra (21 RHS) Rk/A 4.21 ERA, 1.327 WHIP, 10.9 K/9, 4.44 K/BB
Anderson Hidalgo (22, RH, IF) A+ .274/.332/.395, 384 PA
Steve Hirschfeld (25, RHS/R) AA 3.73 ERA, 1.250 WHIP, 6.3 K/9, 2.09 K/BB
Michael Hollimon (29, RH UT) AA/AAA .231/.326/.416 521 PA
Shooter Hunt (24, RHR/S) A+ 7.38 ERA, 2.367 WHIP, 9.7 K/9, 0.75 K/BB
Edgar Ibarra (22, RHS/R) A+ 5.16 ERA, 1.712 WHIP, 6.5 K/9, 1.57 K/BB
Brett Jacobson (24, RHR/S) AA 4.56 ERA, 1.430 WHIP, 7.2 K/9, 1.38 K/BB
Bobby Lanigan (24, RHS) AA 4.45 ERA, 1.458 WHIP, 5.9 K/9, 2.53 K/BB
Danny Lehmann (25, RH C) AA/AAA .234/.315/.323, 219 PA
Wang-Wei Lin (23, RH OF) A .276/.372/.358, 413 PA
Angel Morales (21 RH OF) A+/Rk .259/.314/.400 135 PA (injuries)
Miguel Munoz (22 RHS/R) A+/Rk 7.50 ERA, 1.833 WHIP, 1.5 K/9, 0.22 K/BB (injuries)
Jairo Perez (23 RH IF) A .337/.413/.580, 276 PA
Josmil Pinto (22, RH C) A/A+ .261/.301/.395, 253 PA
Bruce Pugh (22 RHR/S) A+/AA 5.91 ERA, 1.593 WHIP, 10.5 K/9, 2.34 K/BB
Danny Rams (22 RH C) A+ .239/.310/.388, 309 PA
Jairo Rodriguez (22 RH C) Rk .217/.265/.264, 106 PA
Deibinson Romero (24 RH 3B) AA .256/.327/.411, 414 PA
Anthony Slama (27 RHR) AAA 2.92 ERA, 1.162 WHIP, 10.2 K/9, 2.62 K/BB
Yangervis Solarte (23, RH IF) AA .329/.367/.466, 459 PA
Manuel Soliman (21, RHS) A 3.97 ERA, 1.309 WHIP, 7.9 K/9, 2.40 K/B
Spencer Steedley (26, RHR/S) AA 4.52 ERA, 1.649 WHIP, 7.1 K/9, 1.67 K/BB
Tom Stuifbergen (22, RHS) A/AAA 4.29 ERA, 1.430 WHIP, 5.9 K/9, 4.21 K/BB
Michael Tarsi (24, RHR) AA/AAA 3.86 ERA, 1.686 WHIP, 6.7 K/9, 1.18 K/BB
Reggie Williams (22 RH UT) A/A+ .256/.317/.359, 273 PA

Realistically I think that Cole DeVries, Andrew Albers and Anthony Slama can all be drafted by an MLB team; as a matter of fact, after DeVries' AFL performance, I will be very surprised if he is not drafted. I do not think that any of the others are MLB-ready, but if not protected in the AAA reserve roster, the ones indicated would have a high probability in changing teams. I do think that Hirschfeld will be on the AAA roster. Angel Morales, Pedro Guerra, Nelvin Fuentes, Jairo Perez, Danny Rams and Yangervis Solarte are all good players and a couple of years away from the majors, so there is a high likelihood of departure if not on the AAA roster.

What do you think?

Meet the newest Twins member, Ryan Doumit

It was announced today that the Twins have signed Ryan Doumit to an one year contract. The total amount of the contract has not been released yet, but it is a base $3 million contract that can escalate with incentives. I suspect that part of the incentives will be based on plate appearances, given the fact that Doumit has not been very durable the past few season, most recently being in the DL for 57 days last season with a broken ankle. I will not be surprised if the contract ends up being in the $4-5 million dollar range if Doumit achieves the incentive milestones.

Ryan Doumit was drafted by the Pittsburgh Pirates in the 2nd round of the 1999 amateur draft out of Moses Lake (WA) High School. He was born on April 3, 1981 and made his first appearance in the majors in mid-season 2005, after tearing up the Independent League (AAA) at a .352/.422/.642 pace and throwing out 47% of the would be base stealers with the Indianapolis Indians. Primarily a catcher, from 2006 on he has been used extensively in first base and outfield due to nagging injuries. There is a perception that he is not a great defensive catcher, but last season in 461 innings caught here allowed 4 passed balls, as many as Joe Mauer in 408 innings and fewer than the 7 Drew Butera allowed in 670 innings. Also, he caught 24% of the would be base stealers, which is close to Mauer (30%) and Butera (31%). So his defense is in par with the other Twins' catchers, which means that Butera will (hopefully) not have a spot on the 25-man roster, allowing for a more powerful bat to replace him. For more information about Ryan Doumit, check out discussions about his profile at sports management colleges

In 2011, Doumit hit .303/.353/.477, which is better than what Michael Cuddyer did (.284/.346/.459.) Doumit, a switch hitter, hit lefties at a .315/.393/.519 pace in 2011, and is in a position to provide a strong right hand bat in the lineup replacing (if not bettering) Michael Cuddyer at close to a quarter of the cost. Indeed in 2011, Doumit has been close to (or even better than) Cuddyer in pretty much all offensive categories (.360 vs .354 wOBA, .174 vs .176 isoP, 1.23 vs 1.44 GB/FB, 1.53 vs. 0.19 WPA, 27.0% vs 33.7% out of strike swinging and 43.6 vs 29.4 AB/GIDP.) Despite primarily replacing Cuddyer in the lineup, Doumit will fill in at C when Mauer is unable to go or needs rest, at 1B to spell Morneau and will probably split the DH duties with Morneau and Plouffe as well as play some in the outfield with Plouffe. All in all, if healthy, I anticipate at least 500 plate appearances for Doumit.

I think that all in all it is a great signing. As a matter of fact, a couple of weeks ago I indicated that Doumit should be a target for the Twins (bottom of the post.) If indeed the Twins do not carry Butera, with the Doumit signing you a. effectively replacing Cuddyer with a better and younger player at a fraction of the cost and b. allowing another bat to replace Butera on the Twins bench. And another serendipitous fact is that Ryan Doumit has worn uniform number 41 all his MLB career, which is currently Drew Butera's number with the Twins.

The Twins trade dismal middle infielder for power hitting corner outfielder/DH

One of the first moves that Terry Ryan made as the new old Twins' general manager was to announce in an interview with ESPN 1500 that Trevor Plouffe will move from the middle infield to the outfield and the right hand DH position. Ryan astutely said that the defensive side of the game affects him some when he does go to the plate. And Plouffe has been a horrific defender both at second base (-41.8 UZR/150 in 127 innings) and at shortstop (-25.0 UZR/150 in 362.2 innings.) Ryan's comment was extremely astute because Plouffe batted .235/.299/.366 (.665 OPS, .131 isoP) as an infielder and .279/.360/.582 (.942 OPS, .303 isoP) as an outfielder or DH. His numbers, especially in the power category, while playing the OF or DHing were close to elite. On the other hand, they are based on a total of 15 games and his middle infield numbers are based on a total of 60 games, so they need to be taken cautiously. An other, probably unrelated, interesting split in Plouffe's 2011 performance is his performance in day games vs. night games (despite the position he was playing.) In day games, he hit .178/.252/.287 (.539 OPS, .109 isoP) and in night games .270/.333/.449 (.782 OPS, .179 isoP.) His numbers at night games are respectable and his great difference in performance when playing the OF, indicate that with better preparation, an .800-.850 OPS could be achieved in 2012 as a full time OF/DH

Plouffe is making the transition to the OF in his age 26 season. He was a 1st round draft pick (20th overall) by the Twins in the 2004 amateur draft out of Crespi Carmelite High School in Encino, CA. Making a transition from a middle infielder to an outfielder relatively early in someone's career is not a rare phenomenon. A good comparable is the player who Plouffe is most likely to replace in 2012, another former Twins' first round pick, Michael Cuddyer. Michael Cuddyer spent 2004, his age 25 season splitting duties between second base and RF. His numbers at 2B were .206/.225/.309 (.534 OPS, .103 isoP) and at RF: .278/.359/.444 (.803 OPS, .166 isoP); very similar splits as Plouffe. In 2005, (his age 26 season) Cuddyer hit at 2B: .190/.370/.190 (.561 OPS) at 3B: .255/.317/.429 (.746 OPS, .174 isoP) at RF: .318/.366/.455 (.821 OPS, .147 isoP). When he moved to RF full time in 2006, (his age 27 season) he hit .274/.353/.470 (.823 OPS, .196 isoP.) Note that Terry Ryan was also the person who moved Cuddyer to the OF. I think that Plouffe can be a valid replacement for Cuddyer in the 2012 season and there is a good possibility that he will provide the team with right hand power that has been lacking.

A few other notable outfielders who made the switch from the infield in early ages (season and age of the switch in parenthesis) :Jose Bautista (2007, age 26), Ryan Braun (2007, age 23), Alex Gordon (2009, age 25), BJ Upton (2007, age 22), Michael Morse (2010, age 28), Emilio Bonifacio (2011, age 26) and Alfonso Soriano (2006, age 30.) So there is precedence, there are positive indications of future performance, thus is a trade well made by Ryan and at a very low cost.

Who is the newest Twins' member Jamey Carroll?

The first order of business for the new old Twins' general manager, Terry Ryan, was to sign 37 year old free agent Jamey Carroll to a 2 year, about $7 million contract with a $3M mutual option for the 2014 season (his age 40 season.) Several reports from the Twin Cities indicate that he is intended to be the Twins' starting shortstop in the 2012 season. However, by looking at Carroll's past, I suspect that there might be another intention in the Twins' organization with this signing. And to make a long story short, I do think that, despite his age, it is a good signing and Carroll can be a valuable player for the 2012 Twins. Who is Jamey Carroll?

Jamey was born on February 16, 1974 (he will be 38 in the beginning of the 2012 season) in Evansville, Indiana and was drafted as a shortstop in the 14th round of the 1996 draft by the Montreal Expos out of the University of Evansville. He is listed as 5'10" and 170 lbs. He played in the minors until the 2002 season, all in the Expos' organization, appearing in 384 games at 2B, 198 games at SS and 166 games at 3B. He was a September call-up in 2002, appearing in 13 games at 3B, 3 games at SS and 1 at 2B, and remained as a major leaguer with the Montreal organization up to the 2005 (their first season in Washington, DC) primarily as a utility infielder, filling in primarily at 3B and 2B, and occasionally at SS.

A few days before his 32nd birthday in 2006, he was purchased by the Rockies for $300,000 where he was used as a second baseman (before the Rockies acquired Kaz Matsui) and occasionally filling in at SS and 3B with a handful of appearances at the OF. In the 2007 season he was a utility infielder and traded in the offseason to the Indians for a player to be named later. In his 2 seasons in Cleveland he primarily played at second and third. He also filled in at the outfield, but did not play a single inning at SS for 2 seasons. He was a free agent after the 2009 season and signed a 2-year, $3.75 million contract with the Dodgers to be a utility player. Because of the injuries (and subsequent trade) to Rafael Furcal, Carroll spend a considerable time as a shortstop (69 games in 2011 and 63 games in 2011) a position he really did not play steadily until his early minor years (and that was a century ago.) He also played considerably as a second baseman with occasional appearances at 3B and OF. Jamey won the Roy Campanella Award from the Dodgers after the 2010 season for exhibiting leadership and hustle.

A lot of the things the Jamey brings to the table are not in the numbers. He is been seen as a leader in the clubhouse and on the field. A recent LA Times article summarizes his career with the Dodgers as "Carroll wasn’t much of a hitter with runners on, but he hit .290 in his two seasons with the Dodgers, was a solid glove and he will certainly be missed. He was scrappy, well liked among teammates and truly versatile." I think that the same words could be used to describe a soon-to-depart Twins' free agent right hand bat or could had been Nick Punto's eulogy after the 2010 season.

Let's examine Carroll's numbers: Carroll is very consistent with the bat. His career slash line is .278/.356/.348 (.704 OPS) and his 2011 line .290/.359/.347 (.706 OPS). His career splits are: at home games .285/.362/.353 (including Coors field) and away games .270/.350/.343; before the all star break .278/.358/.347 and after .277/.353/.349; vs RHP .281/.357/.351 and vs LHP .271/.354/.343; in day games .274/.364/.347 and in night games .279/.352/.348. And his career minor league line is .270/.340/.342. Jamey Carroll is the definition of consistency with the bat no matter who is pitching or where the game takes place. You know what you will get pretty much every day, which is refreshing if one looks at the 2011 Twins' season in perspective.

Jamey did not make the cut in my middle infielders with better than average fielding list. Despite the fact that every single report out there describes his fielding as "solid", he is a below average fielder (and especially at SS.) His fielding Value in 2011 was -5.1, and that would place him ahead only of Plouffe, Nishioka and Valencia in the 2011 Twins. Given the fact that he might be replacing at least 2 of these player in 2012, this is a step ahead for the Twins. In the same middle infield analysis I indicated that the Twins needed to upgrade hitting and base running as well and Carroll is an asset there: His 2.2 WAR would have tied him for second in the 2011 Twins with Denard Span; His 3.9 Batting value would place him second among the remaining 2011 Twins trailing only Chris Parmelee, and his 1.1 Base Running value would place him third behind Revere, Hughes and Span among the remaining Twins in the 2011 team. Dissecting his fielding numbers a little more indicates that his fielding percentage (career .823 in SS) is excellent, and probably the reason behind the "solid fielder" accolades. However his range is his weak point. His career range at SS is -8.1 (8 runs below average) and will not get any better beginning with his age 38 season. His range has been better at 2B (career -1.8) and at 3B (career 3.2.) As a comparison, Alexi Casilla's career SS range is 4.2.

I suspect that the Twins may have signed Carroll as a wake up call message to Danny Valencia. I can see him being the starting shortstop and moved to second or third with Casilla taking over at SS. Carroll is a clubhouse leader, plays the game hard, is the definition of consistency with the bat, does not make errors on the field (but does not get the balls most shortstops do) so he will be an asset. I think that overall is a very good acquisition for the Twins.

Can the Twins rebound? Part III: Quick ranking of MLB middle infielders and not only free agents

Yesterday I examined the Twins' performance in 2011 and indicated that fielding and hitting were subpar and really needed to improve. Outfield defense with Span and Revere will be fine and also indicated 3 free agent additions (2 OF/DH and a C) who are power right hand bats and will be able to improve both fielding and hitting (and in case of one, base running) if they join the team in 2012.

Looking at potential middle infield targets is a necessity, because the overall Twins' middle infield defense was a very sore point in 2011. So the requirement is that a new acquisition should not field worse than what the Twins have in house. In other words, we want to improve the defense. So players with less than average (0) fielding are not included

Thus, I am listing all MLB SS and 2B who had positive "Fielding" (Fangraphs value. I am also listing their "Hitting", "Base Running" and Wins Above Replacement values. 2012 Twins' players are in Bold and free agents are underlined.

Here are the short stops ranked by decreasing fielding:
(Name/Batting/Base Running/Fielding/WAR)

Alexei Ramirez -0.7 5.1 11.9 4.9
J.J. Hardy 10.7 -0.3 10.7 4.8
Alcides Escobar -16.5 0.4 10.2 2.2
Jhonny Peralta 16.0 -1.9 9.9 5.2
Craig Counsell -11.9 1.3 8.6 0.5
Clint Barmes -2.0 1.9 7.9 3.1
Brendan Ryan -7.4 2.8 7.6 2.6
John McDonald -13.2 1.6 7.4 0.6
Troy Tulowitzki 28.2 -2.8 7.3 6.3
Elvis Andrus -0.4 7.7 7.0 4.5
Ronny Cedeno -15.7 2.6 6.1 1.4
Sean Rodriguez -2.2 1.3 5.1 2.3
Stephen Drew -3.4 1.3 4.5 1.9
Elliot Johnson -8.3 0.8 4.4 0.5
Paul Janish -25.0 0.6 4.2 -0.4
Zack Cozart 1.0 0.2 4.1 0.7
Miguel Tejada -16.3 -1.5 4.0 0.0
Justin Sellers -5.0 3.0 3.9 0.8
Ramon Santiago -3.0 1.4 3.3 1.4
Brandon Crawford -9.5 1.1 3.1 0.5
Jimmy Rollins 6.2 0.1 2.9 3.8
Cesar Izturis -2.9 -0.5 2.9 0.1
Donnie Murphy -6.1 0.5 2.6 0.1
Alberto Gonzalez -15.1 0.9 2.3 -0.2
Alex Cora -7.7 0.8 2.0 0.2
Mike McCoy -8.9 1.3 1.9 0.3
Chris Valaika 0.1 0.1 1.6 0.3
Yunel Escobar 13.5 0.2 1.6 4.3
Eric Sogard -3.5 -0.8 1.5 0.0
Jack Wilson -11.1 0.0 1.3 0.0
Erick Aybar 8.5 1.3 1.2 4.0
Omar Quintanilla -4.6 0.0 1.1 -0.3
Ruben Tejada 1.0 -0.3 1.1 1.8
Pedro Ciriaco 0.3 -0.2 0.8 0.2
Edgar Renteria -7.4 0.2 0.8 0.9
Mike Fontenot -3.0 1.8 0.6 1.0
Marco Scutaro 7.2 -0.3 0.6 2.9
Eduardo Escobar -0.4 0.1 0.5 0.0
Andrew Romine -2.2 0.0 0.4 -0.1
Angel Sanchez -11.3 2.3 0.4 0.5
Julio Lugo -5.5 -0.6 0.2 -0.4
Reid Brignac -22.4 0.1 0.1 -1.1
Josh Wilson -3.2 1.0 0.0 0.1
Cody Ransom -2.0 0.3 0.0 0.0
Tommy Field -2.6 0.6 -0.1 0.0
Alexi Casilla -0.8 -0.4 -0.2 1.4
Matt Tolbert -14.4 1.3 -0.3 -0.5
Alex Gonzalez -15.5 -0.1 -0.3 1.1

Here are the second basemen ranked by decreasing fielding:
(Name/Batting/Base Running/Fielding/WAR)

Dustin Pedroia 31.7 -0.9 17.9 8.0
Howie Kendrick 16.2 3.2 16.7 5.8
Ian Kinsler 26.9 5.8 15.0 7.7
Brandon Phillips 17.1 3.2 11.4 6.0
Ben Zobrist 27.0 2.9 10.2 6.6
Craig Counsell -11.9 1.3 8.6 0.5
Chase Utley 9.9 2.2 8.4 3.9
Omar Infante -6.9 0.8 8.2 2.7
Darwin Barney -11.8 5.0 6.1 2.2
Mark Ellis -16.1 3.7 5.9 1.3
Chris Getz -13.3 1.2 5.6 1.0
Sean Rodriguez -2.2 1.3 5.1 2.3
Gordon Beckham -16.4 1.1 4.9 1.1
Logan Forsythe -7.0 0.6 4.0 0.4
Nick Punto 5.0 1.4 4.0 1.8
Justin Sellers -5.0 3.0 3.9 0.8
Ramon Santiago -3.0 1.4 3.3 1.4
Kelly Johnson -3.0 -1.4 2.5 2.2
Luke Hughes -8.5 1.6 2.5 0.4
Dustin Ackley 8.9 0.9 2.3 2.7
Alberto Gonzalez -15.1 0.9 2.3 -0.2
Robert Andino -5.8 0.9 2.2 1.8
Rickie Weeks 17.8 -3.0 1.6 3.7
Jack Wilson -11.1 0.0 1.3 0.0
DJ LeMahieu -3.9 -0.3 1.3 -0.1
Maicer Izturis 0.7 0.3 1.2 2.0
Omar Quintanilla -4.6 0.0 1.1 -0.3
Jonathan Herrera -13.8 1.0 1.1 0.0
Ruben Tejada 1.0 -0.3 1.1 1.8
Peter Kozma -0.6 -0.5 1.1 0.1
Danny Espinosa 5.2 2.9 1.0 3.5
Brad Emaus -3.8 0.2 0.9 -0.1
Chris Woodward -2.5 0.7 -0.2
on Hill -11.8 -2.1 0.7 0.8
Brooks Conrad 0.2 0.8 0.7 0.6
Mike Fontenot -3.0 1.8 0.6 1.0
Esteban German 2.2 0.2 0.5 0.3
Angel Sanchez -11.3 2.3 0.4 0.5
Taylor Green -1.3 0.7 0.3 0.1
Steve Lombardozzi -2.9 -0.4 0.2 -0.2
Josh Wilson -3.2 1.0 0.0 0.1
Eugenio Velez -8.0 0.0 0.0 -0.7
Lopez -10.7 1.1 -0.1 -0.2
Manny Burriss -10.7 -0.4 -0.1 -0.6
Juan Castro -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.0
Adam Kennedy -10.6 0.6 -0.2 0.1
Danny Worth -1.1 -1.5 -0.2 -0.1
Alexi Casilla -0.8 -0.4 -0.2 1.4
Pete Orr -6.2 0.6 -0.2 -0.2
Matt Tolbert -14.4 1.3 -0.3 -0.5
Brian Roberts -6.4 2.2 -0.4 0.2

So what do the Twins do? Ideally, they want to improve the fielding but do not not want a player who has a large negative impact in the lineup as far as hitting and base running goes(i.e an all glove no bat player.) If you look at the free agents Clint Barmes, Ramon Santiago, Jimmy Rollins (not really a realistic possibility), Cesar Izturis, Kelly Johnson and Nick Punto fit the bill. There are not many good or even average bat better than average middle infielders in the majors and I cannot imagine that the ones who are under team control are realistic trade targets for the Twins. Just look at the list. There is another option, that might sound a bit counter-intuitive (and it is very similar to my contrarian starting pitching opinion:

The Twins have an average fielding and average hitting shortstop (Alexi Casilla) and an above average fielding and below average hitting second baseman (Luke Hughes). The problem is that they did not play much in those positions and additional players (Cuddyer, Nishioka, Plouffe, Tolbert) took a lot of innings. So unless the Twins get one of Barmes, Santiago, Johnson, Rollins, Izturis or Punto, they will be better of starting the season with Alexi Casilla in SS and Luke Hughes in 2B, instead of lesser fielding alternatives.

What do you think?

Can the Twins rebound? Part II: Quick ranking of MLB position player free agents

Looking at what went wrong with the 2011 Twins club and try to prioritize changes that would help the 2012 club rebound, I have previously examined the starting rotation, and concluding that despite the conventional words of wisdom, it should not be a priority, if the best pitchers are used and if they stay healthy. The bullpen is a different story, which I will try to examine in a later day; so let's examine the position players.

Here is the Twins "Batting Value" (Fangraphs metric) :

as you can see only 2 current non-pitchers had positive value with the bat (Jim Thome was traded and Mike Cuddyer and Jason Kubel are free agents). And with Parmelee probably starting at AAA Rochester, Joe Mauer is the only 25 man roster in 2012 who had a positive batting contribution. This is a problem. We also know that this team is practically devoid of power right hand bats, especially with Cuddyer a free agent and Delmon Young traded. With Morneau healthy and potentially Parmelee in some role, left handed power might not be much of an issue, and this team is slated to have at least 4 LH hitting strarters (Mauer, Span, Revere, Morneau) so more balance is needed

Here is the Twins "Fielding Value" (Fangraphs metric) :

From the remaining 2012 players there are stong outfield fielders (Revere and Span), catching is not a problem, first base is not a problem if Morneau is healthy, but infield is a problem, other than Luke Hughes (2.6) and Casilla (-0.1 league average). Also a 3rd outfielder is needed.

Here is the Twins "Running Value" (Fangraphs metric) :

Running was supposedly the strong suit of the team, but the data indicate that only a 3 players (Revere, Span and Hughes) were above average, several were average and a lot were not that great. So this element should be upgraded as well.

Surprisingly, Luke Hughes was both an above average runner and defender, and he should have a role in the 2012 team.

So hitting is a problem. Kubel and Cuddyer are free agents. Should the Twins be knocking at their doors and signing them as fast as possible? Especially Cuddyer who is a power right hand bat? Let examine how Cuddyer and Kubel stack with the other availbable 2012 free agents. The following list is ranking free agents by IsoP (Isolated Power) and also displays the Fangraphs Defence and Running values (Minimum 100 PA) for their 2011 seasons:

Prince Fielder isoP .267 Fld -5.1 BsR -5.4
Andruw Jones isoP .247 Fld 2.7 BsR -2.2
David Ortiz isoP .246 Fld -0.1 BsR -5.4
Albert Pujols isoP .242 Fld 2.4 BsR -3.6
Carlos Pena isoP .237 Fld 0.7 BsR -1.0
Scott Hairston isoP .235 Fld -3.2 BsR -0.1
Josh Willingham isoP .232 Fld -5.4 BsR -2.7
Carlos Beltran isoP .225 Fld -7.3 BsR 1.1
Jim Thome isoP .220 Fld 0 BsR -2.7
Wily Mo Pena isoP .212 Fld -0.2 BsR 0.5
Aramis Ramirez isoP .204 Fld -9.4 BsR -4.9
Jason Varitek isoP .203 Fld -5.0 BsR -2.5
Laynce Nix isoP .201 Fld -5.0 BsR 1.2
Rod Barajas isoP .200 Fld -1.0 BsR -3.2
Grady Sizemore isoP .198 Fld -5.8 BsR 0.8
Kelly Johnson isoP .191 Fld 2.5 BsR -1.4
Jonny Gomes isoP .180 Fld 3.4 BsR 1.7
Derrek Lee isoP .179 Fld 1.4 BsR -2.5
Mike Cuddyer isoP .176 Fld -0.7 BsR -1.1
Ryan Doumit isoP .174 Fld -1.0 BsR -2.7
Raoul Ibanez isoP .174 Fld -18.9 BsR -1.6
Russell Branyan isoP .173 Fld 1.2 BsR -1.2
Wilson Betemit isoP .167 Fld -8.7 BsR -1.2
Cody Ross isoP .165 Fld -5.5 BsR -0.1
Ramon Hernandez isoP .164 Fld 0.0 BsR -2.6
Kelly Shoppach isoP .163 Fld -1.1 BsR 1.1
Jason Kubel isoP .161 Fld -2.8 BsR -0.3

Clearly the Twins will not make a run for Albert Pujols or Prince Fielder (and they don't need to). Signing Andrew Jones and Jonny Gomes to replace Mike Cuddyer and Jason Kubel, would provide better power and better fielding and in Gomes' case better base running (his 2011 runnning value would rank him second in the 2011 Twins behind only Ben Revere). In addition, there will be some money left over to sign Ryan Doumit upgrading the C position offensively and providing some 1B insurance (the other argument about re-signign Cuddyer.) An outfield of Revere,Span, Gomes/Jones (with the other one at DH) will also provide superior defense for the Twins' flyball starters.

What do you think?

Can the Twins rebound? Part I: Looking at their history

In some respects, I do enjoy blogging more during the off-season than during the baseball season. I ind it more of challenging and rewarding mental exercise to venture into potentiality and looking at minutae, rather than describing actuality and game results. Why is that? a. There are many sources out there that do the latter, and adding another adds to the blasé feeling; b. the Twins' actuality was rather exasperating in more than a few occasions last season; and c. actuality becomes "history" after it is all said and done and it is much easier to examine it objectively.

One of the things that I would like to do this off-season is to try to examine whether a likelihood of rebounding from a fairly disappointing 2011 season. This is the first part of the series and I will be using the Twins' franchise history as a whole as potential roadmap for such an rebound. Has something similar happened to the Twins' before, or are we looking at uncharted territory? And if it has, what happened afterwards? An exercise like this lacks in acuity, but as Pearl Buck said, if you want to understand today, you have to search yesterday. And by "yesterday", I do not mean the Twins' history starting exactly 51 years from today, when Calvin Griffith announced his intention to move the Washington Senators to the Minneapolis/St. Paul south metropolitan area, but since the beginning of the American League. It is a shame that this club does not recognize its rich franchise history, from the ballpark to its web site (I find it very interesting that the "franchise history" link in the Twins' timeline page is deactivated - look at the left navigation bar in the linked page.) One of the unfortunate side-effects of this is that most Twins' fans today do not know that Stan Coveleski, Joe Cronin, Ed Delahanty, Rick Ferrell, Lefty Gomez, Goose Goslin, Clark Griffith, Bucky Harris, Walter Johnson, Harmon Killebrew, Heinie Manush, Al Simmons, George Sisler, Tris Speaker, Ted Williams and Early Wynn, all members of Baseball Hall of Fame, were associated with the Twins' franchise at some point, with Harmon Killebrew being the exception, because of his tenure with the team in Minnesota. I suspect that a lot of the Twins' fans (and probably even people employed with the Twins) do not know some of those names, or do not realize, for example, that Ted Williams was also associated with the Twins' franchise.

But that's another story and does have a lot of merit but deserves its own space. One another parenthetic note, that picture on top of my block is from Griffith Park, home of the Senators and was taken in the 20s. Back to the original (non-trivial) pursuit: Lets deromanticize the history of the Twins and examine the last season with the recent context and see how it fits with the previous history of the franchise. In other words, has something like this happened before, and if it has, what followed? Again, this is neither an exercise in either predicting nor in necromancing, but more of placing this period of Twins into the continuum of their existence.

For this I will use a simple tool, with a lot of notations overlaid and will work with visual pattern recognition. I am certain that a lot of the readers of this blog would be happy that I will not be trying to extrapolate and predict using statistical analysis. The following graph is simple: A reverse chronological order (i.e. 2011 is closest to the Y axis) line graph of the Twins' franchise wins every season down to the inaugural AL season of 1901. The division between Minnesota and Washington is indicated (big red line down the middle) as are attempts to identify a few eras/periods (blue vertical lines and notations on the bottom). Truth is that a couple of those could (and should had) be even further broken down, but this works for now, for the sake of (relative) simplicity. Few dates are also on the chart, so we can navigate, and 5 of times the franchise went to the World Series (won only the 2 last ones in MN) are also noted. For some reason, photoshop did not like the "WS" notation on the 1965 mark, but they went to the world series then, too. Six times overall. The franchise low in 1982 is there too. Here we go:

Bigger image in a new window can be found here

A few observations: The current era (Gardy Era and the late TK era) looks a lot like other periods in the Twins' history. It resembles the Killer Era (60s, most similar to it that others), the early TK era (mid 80s-early 90s), the late Walter Johnson and Joe Cronin Era (late 20s- early 30s.) Those were periods of time that the Twins and the Senators had sustained winning records and were competitive teams. Some teams in the earlier Walter Johnson Era were also competitive, but no more than a couple years in a row. Part of the reason for that was a fellow named Babe Ruth who played for a division rival from 1920 to 1930 (effectively,) and it is a major achievement that the Walter Johnson Senators dethroned the Babe Ruth Yankees in both 1924 and 1925 to represent the AL in the World Series. My visual clues bundle those teams with the following Joe Cronin Era.

The Minnesota part of the Killebrew Era, if we take a mulligan on the move year (1961), arguably has been more successful that the Ron Gardernhire Era. They went to the World series in 1965, taking the Dodgers to 7 games and losing a 2-0 three-hit shut out by Sandy Koufax in Met stadium in game 7. They also went to the ALCS in 1969 and 1970 (the first 2 years of division play.) The Early Tom Kelly Era (I should actually call it the Andy McPhail Era,) has been one of the most successful in the franchise. 2 World series trophies and 2 parades in wintry Minneapolis are hard to ignore. Also, from 1924-1933 the Senators went to 3 World Series (Late Walter Johnson and the Joe Cronin Eras,) arguably more successful than the resent past.

I find interesting that in a couple of these periods were "dips" in wins. "Bad" seasons. 1990, 1928 and 1929. Then the Twins or Senators returned to success. In other times, 1993, 1971, 1934, the dip meant a series of long cold summers with wins for the franchise hibernating like bears in mid-winter. Whether 2011 will be just a dip on the road, like 1990, 1928 and 1929, or a sign for things to come, like 1992, 1971 or 1934, is yet to be determined. Cannot necromance using history, just look at the possibilities of the future, based on past events and hope for the best outcome. So, yes, it is possible for the Twins to rebound in 2012 or in 2013, if they are in a dip like 1928 and 1929. They have done it twice before.

The next segment will examine other baseball teams in recent history (this millennium) which have rebounded from situations similar to that of the 2011 Twins. Let the hope torch burn eternal.

A contrarian opinion about the Twins' Starting Pitching

It is hard to look back at a 99-loss season and try to figure out what did not work, but it is necessary to just do that and try to pinpoint possible weaknesses that need to be solved. With a 99-loss season, pretty much nothing worked well, but prioritizing changes requires the identification of parts of the team that can be fixed relatively easily or by fixing them, it will make the biggest impact.

A lot of people in Twins territory, including fans and the press, and the Twins' management, as was referenced in the season ticket holder press conference a few weeks ago, see starting pitching as one of the weaknesses of the 2011 team, which needs to be fixed this off-season.

I examined that hypothesis, by looking at the performance of the Twins' starters in 2011 based on their on-field numbers. And the numbers disagree with that generalized belief.

3 years ago I devised a compound statistic measurement that indicates pitching effectiveness. Here I explain the idea behind the pitching effectiveness (or PE) measurement, and why I prefer it as an indicator of pitching performance independent of fielding or other external factors than other compound statistic measurements like FIP, xFIP and DICE. PE is (K/9*K/BB)/WHIP. A couple years ago, I devised another measurement expected PE or xPE, which is PE*(BABIP/.290), to further neutralize for "luck", reflecting what a pitcher's PE would be if his BABIP was .290 (League normal.)

Here is a list of the Twins' starters ranked by xPE for their 2011 performance. For pitchers who both started and relieved in 2011, only their numbers as starters are taken into consideration for the calculations. Also, the Twins' team average starter numbers are indicated as are the league average numbers. For comparison purposes, the numbers of AL starting pitchers who are considered as "Aces" and had the best starting pitching performances in 2011 are also included:




I included the following color coding: MLB average is green, above average darker green, below average yellow and well below average red.

A few observations (and I am sure that this is surprising to many out there) :

• The Twins' starter as a group, had better performance that the league average


• One pitcher's performance (Kevin Slowey) was bettered only by Verlander, while another one's (Baker's) trailed only Verlander and Sabathia and was better than Felix Hernandez, Weaver, CJ Wilson and Lester


• Liam Hendricks, who will probably be in AAA in the start of 2012 season, had 4 very promising starts


• Brian Duensing and Anthony Swardak were right there with the league average


• Pavano's and Liriano's performance was below par. Liriano was injured the whole season (and exhibited a 2mph velocity drop. His 2010 numbers (20.38 PE, 23.68 xPE) are promising for a comeback, especially if his shoulder heals and velocity increases. Pavano is a decent end of the rotation innings eater, but at this point should not be considered anything more than a 5th pitcher in this staff (and his is compensated more than that; so there is a decision that needs to be made.)


• Blackburn and Diamond do not belong in a major league rotation.

Ok. I know that this sounds pretty crazy and counter intuitive. It is contrary to what most Twins' fans, the press and the organizational brass believes. But the numbers do not lie; however the dismal results do not lie either? How do we reconcile these opposing facts? In other words, what happened if the Twins' starters pitched well?

Here are a few things that happened:

• The Twins' as a team had a ridiculous high BABIP (opponents' Batting Average in Balls In Play). 0.318 as a team. As a matter of fact, other than Liriano, every starter had an elevated BABIP, and Slowey's, Duensing's, Blackburn's, and Hendicks' approached ridiculous levels


• The Twins' defence, especially infield defense was one of the MLB worse. Here are the UZR/150 for each position as a total and for individual players at that position:
  
  
  
  • 1B: 11.4 (Mauer 27.8 UZR150/141 inn, Morneau 11.3/479, Hughes 11.0/274, Parmelee 8.1/173, Cuddyer 6.4/352)
  
  
  • 2B: -6.0 (Tolbert 5.1/244, Hughes 4.9/301, Casilla 2.2/470, Dinkelman -2.9/89, Cuddyer -20.8/140, Nishioka -39.7/49, Plouffe -41.8/127)
  
  
  • 3B: -7.1 (Valencia -6.2/1280, Hughes -9/104, Tolbert -42.3/37)
  
  
  • SS: -13.6 (Tolbert -3.2/210, Casilla -4.4/306, Nishioka -14.2/508, Plouffe -25/396)
  
  
  • LF: 2.5 (Plouffe 35.8/19, Repko 13.3/128, Benson 9.1/88, Young 5.4/642, Revere -3.1/112, Tosoni -3.8/321, Kubel -4.2/70, Dinkelman -18.2/40)
  
  
  • CF: 14.2 (Span 17.6/585, Revere 15.1/776, Benson 9.5/17, Repko -61.6/43)
  
  
  • RF: -1.8 (Revere 63.6/37, Repko 21.7/157, Dinkelman 6.3/22, Cuddyer 0.1/639, Benson -5.9/59, Mauer -8.3/9, Kubel -8.3/413, Plouffe -51.4/72, Tosoni -55.1/11)
  
  
  This deserves a whole post by itself, but I am just presenting the numbers at this point


• The best pitchers did not pitch the most, because of injuries and because of bad choices by the manager and the coaches.


• The bullpen was atrocious (and that's another story by itself), allowing a lot of inherited runs to score (inflating starters' ERAs) and losing leads

So how the Twins' starting pitching should look at 2012? What changes can be made and give better results?

• Get everyone healthy. First and foremost. With a healthy, and presumed back to at least his 2010 form, Liriano, this team has 3 true strong pitchers.


• Give the ball to your best pitchers. There is no way any other team would have alienated their best starter as this team has alienated Slowey. It is silly to have your best starter in the pen and give the ball to Blackburn (who does not belong in a major league rotation) because you gave him an ill-advised contract extension


• Realize the fact that Pavano is a back of the rotation pitcher and do not treat him like an Ace. Either have him at number 4 or 5 or trade him to relief the team from that contract


• Fix the defense. This is a no-brainer (and will get it's own post one of these days.) Also find some ways to score runs. This is another no-brainer and will get it's own post


• The writing on the wall is that Hendricks will be heading to Rochester and Duensing to the bullpen. Hendricks can use some AAA time and I think that with Cole DeVries, who has been transitioning to a starter in AFL and has been pretty effective in 4 starts there, will form a good reserve corps at the AAA level. Duensing, despite what a lot of people think, has been a reliable league average starter. He can be a stellar reliever and could really help fix the bullpen.


• Deal with Blackburn and Diamond. Blackburn (much like Perkins) has not been an effective starter in his Twins' tenure (ill-advised contract extension or not.) Putting him in the pen and hoping for same results as with Perkins is the best course of action. Diamond is not ready and needs to be in AAA and should not be the first option, if a starter is needed

So with these changes we are looking for a 2012 Twins' rotation of Slowey, Baker, Liriano, Swarzak and Pavano (or Duensing/Hendricks, if Pavano is traded.) I believe (and the numbers suggest) that this group can be successful in 2012 with better health, better management, better fielding and better defense. Despite what most people feel, the Twins' starting rotation was one of the (few) team's strengths in 2011.

What do you think?

How much is Michael Cuddyer worth?

I am really not going to mention the 2011 season as a whole for the Twins. Just looking forward to the 2012 season hoping for a phenomenal rebound alike that of 1991. It has been reported more than once that one of the Twins' priorities this off-season is re-signing Michael Cuddyer who is a free agent for the first time in his career.

Cuddyer comes off a season where he hit .284/.346/.459 with 20 HRs, drove in 70 and also scored 70. He has been the brightest offensive point for the team last season (as a whole); he also displayed the willingness to play multiple positions (unlike in previous seasons,) which was valuable to the Twins because of the multitude of injuries. He arguably had the best season of his career, looking at WAR (wins over replacement), accumulating a 3.1 WAR, which ranks him as the 81st best position player in the majors in 2011, based on that metric. And no math classes are necessary to figure this out.

In addition, he has been given accolades from the press and the Twins' brass about being a good clubhouse leader. He will be 33 on the beginning of the 2012 season. It has been reported that the Twins have offered him a 2-year, $8 million per season contract that he rejected and it looks like he is willing to explore the market before he commits.

What is a reasonable price (in annual contract terms) for Michael Cuddyer?

Here is one analysis:

I looked at all the 2011 contracts of OF/DH/1B types in MLB (including Cuddyer's), looked at their WAR, calculated average $/WAR and calculated how much 3.1 WAR (Cuddyer's WAR in 2001; career high) is worth based on the average $/WAR for OF/1B/DH for 2011. To keep things fair, I did not add players on minimum salary (like Ben Revere) and to keep things not going mathematically out of hand, I used players where WAR >= 1 for the calculations. Here is the spreadsheet:

So by this calculations, it looks like his 2011 year was worth about $7.725. So the Twins' offer of 2 years/$8 per season (including his year 34 season) is slightly higher that his career high 2011 season.

If you look at those contracts, a lot of them were signed in other financial times, before the country was hit by a recession. If you take the contracts signed before the 2010 season from the spread sheet above it looks like this:

This, arguably. might provide a better picture for a fair price in 2011. The bottom like with this calculation is a little less that $5.6 M a year.

I think that the 2 years, $8M dollar per year offer by the Twins was a generous one and reflects that the Twins believe that Cuddyer is a strong positive presence in the organization. This presence carries a close to $2.5 million premium for the Twins per year, based on his value these days and their offer. My opinion is that the Twins can do better for that money, if Cuddyer decides to keep rejecting that offer.

What do you think?

Had an Epiphany the Other Day...

... and it has nothing to do with Baseball or the Twins. Or maybe it does, partially (or even more than partially, depending how you slice and dice it, but this is not about culinary arts and sciences either.)

And it is nothing like about time you bring Slowey up instead of watching Blackie burn a game after another (that is a 'duh moment', really; kinda interesting and somewhat amusing to see how long Gardy's self-inducing plastic surgery cutting his nose to spite his face is going to last, btw...)

But I digress...

And as a matter of fact it did happen during the Twins' game last Saturday (so here is Twins and baseball connection #1; but for the life of me I cannot say that I remember much of that game - and I have been told that this is a good thing.)

So... one of the things that I learned in my 29 years (choke) in this world, is that life comes in layers and then are more layers added on top of those, and some mud, crud, lemons and other favorite (or not) citrus piling up. Great place for a flying (or not) thing of sorts to nest, settle in and stay comfortable and sit for a while (or something.)

So... once upon a time (story goes) some of those outer layers get peeled (for some weird reason; and I am so not gonna get into Psych 101 right here and now) crud falls off and one maybe discover that darn, some of the phenomenological (crud peel) disagreements (like whether Cuddyer or someone else is clutch or not or overpaid or not or whatever meaningless in the big picture of things - Twins reference #2) crap, once they are peeled, dropped, burned and done with, reveal something incredibly beautiful and similar and alike and attractive and irresistible and whatever. (Dots). Did I really say that? I guess I did... Live and let live. And once that happens that kinda (has to) smacks you upside the head. (Dots). I consider my head so smacked last Saturday, that I had to skip the Twins' game Sunday (sources tell me that I did not miss much) and it was for a good reason because Duensing was starting too (Twins reference #3), and elected to go for a 12 mile run in 99 degree heat index to clear my mind. Mind has not cleared yet, but I bonged on mile sixsomething. Glad to report that there were no casualties. No war either. Shalom.

And I am not about to write a novella (ha) about this either (for about a third of a million reasons.) But consider this a cryptic break in the regular programming (and I am not sure when there will be regular programming here) and live and let live. But enjoy the road and the little heart warming surprises (really, gotta be open to get those when they appear before your eyes, really) it might bring.

Shalom


Please feel free to comment here or throw your words of wisdom to me at thetenthinningstretch@gmail.com (and I can frankly use them :) )

So how do you fix this Twins mess?

May 25th and the Twins are 14.5 games behind the Cleveland Indians, the way to climb up from that hole looks more and more slippery every day, and the light out of the tunnel is as bright as Camping's predictions about the end of the world (as we know it.) So what you do, if you are the Twins' brass to move on and start preparing for the 2012 season? And I know that throwing the 2011 season under the bus, the same way the Manager of the Millennium threw Slowey under the bus, in May is somewhat of a hubris, but I am trying to be realistic...

So, here is what I would do, if I were the Twins' owner (Dream on and Daydream Believer time: )

This team is misfiring in all cylinders, so you gotta re-build the whole engine (think Marlins' tune ups blowing up the whole thing and winning world championships.) So (starting from the top, and these things do not have to happen stimultaneously, but they have to happen before the Winter meetings next fall: )

• Bill Smith has to go, along with the rest of the "Twins' way" (read: old school) people in the front office. This includes "special advisors", scouts in their golden years, hangovers who care more about horse racing or their personal enterprises and such (ouch). A new front office that includes a holistic player evaluation team that uses computers as well as eyes (hey, it is the 21st century, last time I checked) should be installed in place.


• (I guess that this might come as a surprise: ) Get rid of the manager and the coaches and start fresh. Everyone who ever read my opinions here knows who I feel about the love of complacency and mediocrity by the media and fans, which embrace the current Twins' field regime, even though they have fallen short since 1991, create cronyism, favoritism and schism in the clubhouse and making lineup and game decisions based on gut feelings that are in a dire need of Pepto (yes, the pink stuff.) So a new manager should be installed, someone with fire who would not take the compliments of being second-(and third- and fourth- and fifth-) best as accolades displayed in a Fargo agricultural show, but would think that an also-ran team is a failure and install this fire to his players. Someone like him (old news that I like him and he is a former Twin.) Also get at least one hispanic coach. This team is blessed to have the pitching coach who made Pedro Martinez, Randy Johnson and Johan Santana who there are now, but he is rotting in the minors (again, old news, sue me.) and has the manager's buddies as coaches.


• The players. Sigh... I gotta get a tad financially sensitive here, since a bunch of ill-advised contracts were handed out, decisions on who stays and goes and who gets extended were made based on favoritism or the previously mentioned sorts and the like... Realistically, there are few players with any trade value right now (unless some of them would have a mirage-like performance before the trading deadline, which, under the current regime, would make it more likely to keep them long term - see how that Twins' vicious cycle works? Keep high, sell low.) Anyways... back to the business. I would try to trade (mind you not all at once, but up to the trading deadline) the following (and absorb some salary $; and this is quasi-sorted based on descending trade value, pending a miracle of the aforementioned sort):

  • Cuddyer. He does have some trade value with several contenders hurting at OF, he can "play" in the IF and he is a free agent next off-season. This one is a no-brainer.
  • Thome. Ok. He is a nice guy (but he buried the Twins in that single play off game), we all want to see him hit number 600 with the Twins, but the truth is that this is probably his last year in the majors. Sell (quasi) high. Done deal.
  • Blackburn. Ill-advised extension, ceiling of a number 4 pitcher (and he is in his prime), favorite with the front office and some Twins' fans, based on perception of "guts" quota.
  • Butera. They were some takers, allegedly. Smith traded Ramos and Morales instead. Bad move. All said.
  • Duensing. This is a guy whose value drops with every start. Trade high. He is lefty and he is breathing (and he is a junkballer with the ceiling of Blackburn; and he is also in his prime years). Controversial, but... gotta do it.
  • Capps. Another guy whose value is dropping by the appearance, but someone might think he is a "proven closer". Another no-brainer
  • It gets tough here because of several reasons, mostly associated with a need for a miracle performance...Morneau. Hubris, fan favorite (but in the wrong side of 30,) awful contract, miniscule performance; should be sadly done.
  • Pavano See the above, minus the hubris bit.
  • Nathan. You need to find takers, but there might be
  • Big category here: Clean house of never-had been players in their prime or past: Dusty Hughes, Jason Repko, Matt Tolbert, Phil Dumatrait et. al. Sorry

Where that leaves the Twins as far as players go? Something like this:

a hitter core of (pretty much batting order-like) Span, Nishi(when healthy) Mauer(when healthy, can't get him go or his contract), Young, Kubel (and I do not have second thoughts about keeping him or Span), Valencia, and a whole lot of young players for evaluation. Rotation (in no order) : Liriano, Baker (had some thoughts about this one two, but he probably deserves another year,) Slowey (when healthy), Gibson and Swarzak or Diamond or someone else. The pen: bring up Slama, Chuck James, Cole DeVries. Hopefully Perkins and Mijares will get healthy, and a continuing (long due) evaluation of young pitchers.

These are my thoughts. What are yours if you owned the Twins for a day (or 2?)

Twins' week in review: the good, the bad and the ugly

One week is already in the books for the Twins' 2011 season, including a couple of trips to Toronto and New York and the home opener against the Oakland A's earlier today. Here are my random thoughts about the good, the bad and the ugly about the Twins this week:

The Good:

• Denard Span has been a monster on the top of the lineup, getting on base in a close to a .400 clip and having some timely run-driving hits. If it was not for Denard, the Twins could very well have a record of 1-6 or even 0-7


• The Twins won a game in New York, and were close in the others


• Mauer is healthy


• Morneau is healthy


• The Luke Hughes era began, albeit on a sad note


• The Twins are undefeated in Target Field


• Joe Nathan is 3 out of 3 in safe opportunities; and he hit 93 mph today


• Kubel is hitting the ball better than last season, the distance will come


• Glen Perkins has been decent so far as a reliever


• Nick Blackburn has been the best pitcher on the staff so far. Big surprise and I hope it continues


• Delmon Young's defense has been a very pleasant surprise so far

The Bad:

• I have no idea why Dusty Hughes and Jeff Manship are in the bigs...


• Other than Nick Blackburn (and Pavano today) the starting staff has been...bad


• KC and Cleveland are much better than everyone thought


• The Twins have a losing record and are between 1 and 2 games behind the White Sox (the WSox game pending tonight)


• Drew Buttera, Matt Tolbert and Jason Repko are in the roster. And they will start enough games to matter

The Ugly:

• Swisher's slide that will probably cost Nishioka the season was ugly dirty. Period. He was not even close to the base. Can anyone say a Hoey fastball up and in next time he faces the Twins?


• Gardenhire is not using his bullpen any smarter after he got the manager of the year award; and it shows: Kevin Slowey has been day-to-day because of overuse


• The Twins did not win a series away against the AL East. Something that they have to do to go all the way


• Mike Cuddyer has been the worse player on the team. So far he is hitting half of what Punto was hitting, he is running slower than Jim Thome and by playing 6 out of 7 games so far, he severely compromises the Twins' chances to win. If his foot hurts, DL him and get someone healthy in the bigs.


• Kevin Slowey in the pen. Enough said

Still a long season, and there will be lots of ups and downs but there are a few things that the Twins can correct sooner than later and several optimistic things to build upon, but the Central will be harder this season...

What do you think?

MLB Predictions for the 2011 season

It is this time of the year. Here are my predictions for the 2011 season:

AL East

Red Sox 99-53
Yankees 88-64
Toronto 79-83
Rays 77-85
Orioles 69-93


AL Central

Twins 92-70
White Sox 84-78
Tigers 78-84
Indians 73-89
Royals 72-90


AL West

Rangers 88-64
A's 83-81
Mariners 75-87
Angels 73-85



NL East

Phillies 90-72
Atlanta 88-74
Mets 82-82
Nationals 80-84
Marlins 76-86

NL Central

Cincinnati 86-76
Milwaukee 84-78
Cubs 80-82
Cardinals 79-83
Pirates 70-92
Astros 68-84

NL West

Padres 92-70
Giants 86-76
Rockies 82-82
Dodgers 72-90
Diamondbacks 68-84


AL Champions: Twins over Red Sox
NL Champions: Padres over Reds

World Champions: Twins over Padres (in 7 with Nathan and Neshek saving every game for their respective teams)


few more Twins' predictions:

• By the end of April one of Baker, Blackburn, Duensing will lose their starting job to Slowey


• By the end of June another of the above will lose his job to Gibson


• Luke Hughes will spend more days on the 25-man roster than Dusty Hughes who himself will spend more than Jeff Manship


• Perkins will be a decent reliever


• Nishioka will be the Rookie of the Year and Delmon Young the MVP, with FranKKKKKKKie finishing second to Lester in the Cy Young Award


• Mike Cuddyer will play his last game in a Twins' uniform sometime in July due to injury, when the Revere era will officially commence


• Joe Mauer will catch more than 130 games and Justin Morneau will make more than 130 starts in 1B


• Drew Butera will not make the post-season roster


• Matt Tolbert will be released before the All-Star break

What do you think?

Tsuyoshi Nishioka video

Happy New Year to every one!

This is a 5 minute video of Twins' newest acquisition, Tsuyoshi Nishioka. A lot of similarities with Ichiro, but (unfortunately) Nishioka is slower and (fortunately) he does not play small ball. Very similar OBP abilities.

The Twins new approach to starting rotation success

It has been the result of deep and secret discussions during the All Star break. What can the Twins do to have more success in their starting rotation. Should they trade for one or two new starters who would put them over the top? Should they try to create better game plans? Change their approach? Look at potential mechanics issues?

I am happy to report no in all the above.

Instead they decided to create a picture of unity and have an anthem. Their inspiration and anthem follow:

Inspiration:


Anthem:

Young man, there's no need to feel down
I said young man, pick yourself off the ground
I said young man, 'cause your in a new park
There's no need to be unhappy

Young man, there's a thing you can do
I said young man, when you're short on your stuff
You can do that and I'm sure you will find
Many ways to have a good start

It's fun to grow facial hair
It's fun to grow facial hair
They have everything for young men to enjoy
You can strike out all the boys

It's fun to grow facial hair
It's fun to grow facial hair
You can throw yourself strikes you can have a good start
You can win whanever you pitch

Young man, are you listening to me
I said young man, what do you wanna be
I said young man, you can make real your dreams
But you've got to know this one thing

No man does it all by himself
I said young man, put your pride on the shelf
And just grow facial hair
I'm sure they can help you today

It's fun to grow facial hair
It's fun to grow facial hair
They have everything for young men to enjoy
You can strike out all the boys

It's fun to grow facial hair
It's fun to grow facial hair
You can throw yourself strikes you can have a good start
You can win whanever you pitch

Young Man, I was once in your shoes
I said I was, down and out with the blues
I felt no man cared if I were alive
I felt the whole world was so jive

That's when someone came up to me
And said young man go look at the mirror
There's a thing called growing facial hair
That can start you back on your way

It's fun to grow facial hair
It's fun to grow facial hair
Young man, young man there's no need to feel down
Young man, young man pick yourself off the ground

Facial hair and just grow facial hair

Pat Neshek, the forgotten man in the Twins organization

Exactly three months ago, I made the case that Pat Neshek should be the Twins' closer, in the absence of Joe Nathan. Unfortunately, these days he seems to be the forgotten man in the Twins organization by the fans, by the media and, unfortunately by the team.

Calls for improvement of the bullpen, either focus on acquiring second class outsize talent (Aardsma) or promoting one of the "Rochester studs", referring to Slama and Waldrop. I think that the solution is much easier: Promote Pat Neshek.

Pat played in 8 games already in Rochester and other than a single unfortunate outing when he was used in back to back games, he has been lights out. Here are his numbers compared to those of Slama and Waldrop, if you exclude that single outing:



There is no comparison. Pat has been twice as effective as Anthony Slama and is way ahead of Kyle Waldrop. Also he is on the 40-man roster.

I had the opportunity to watch Pat pitch against the Lehigh Valley Ironpigs (on the TV) a few days ago on June 29th. He pitched 2/3 of an inning and retired both batters he faced, striking out one of them. His velocity is back (the stadium radar was indicating between 88 and 91 fastball) and more importantly his movement, control and command are back. He needs to be in the bigs. The Twins need him in Minessota, instead of Ron Mahay, who has been an one batter pitcher and taking a spot from better players.

Is this another case of cutting your nose to spite your face situation, that Ron Gardenhire is so used to? If you remember, Pat was misdiagnosed earlier this year with a finger ailment by the Twins' medical staff. When he was correctly diagnosed with a palm ailment, he was frustrated and voiced his frustration publicly. Ron Gardenhire did not like that. I think that the Twins should really look into having the best players in Minnesota (I can make a similar case about Jose Morales vs. Drew Butera, but that's a whole different story) and do not try to stand behind the proven inept medical staff of this team.

Free Pat Neshek now!

Who is Hot in the Twins' Minors: Version 5

The latest installment of the Who is Hot in the Twins' minors, includes players from all levels of play, since all leagues are underway, including the 3 rookie leagues (Dominican Summer League, Gulf Coast League and Appalachian League.) Several recent Twins' draftees who have signed and started their pro careers appear in the listing.

Here is the list of who is hot in the minors:

Catchers:
Felix Gallardo (RHB, 19, R-DSL) .273/.543/.318 0 HR, 4 RBI, 35 PA
Jairo Rodriguez (RHB, 21, R-GCL) .333/.333/.500 0 HR, 2 RBI, 12 PA

Infielders:
D'Angelo Jimenez (SHB, 32, AAA) .349/.457/.546 11 HR, 69 RBI, 374 PA (incl. Mex. League stats)
Matt Macri (RHB, 28, AAA) .295/.362/.452 3 HR, 16 RBI, 164 PA
Andy Leer (RHB, 22, R-ELZ) .458/.500/.667 1 HR, 7 RBI, 24 PA
Hyeong-rok Choi (RHB, 20, R-ELZ) .313/.350/.500 1 HR, 3 RBI, 20 PA
Juan Blanco (RHB, 21, R-DSL) .364/.397/.473 0 HR, 4 RBI, 13 SB, 59 PA
Miguel Sano (RHB, 17, R-DSL) .315/.441/.556 3 HR, 9 RBI, 68 PA

Outfielders:

Joe Benson (RHB, 25, AA/A+) .262/.353/.536 4 HR, 34 RBI, 11 SB, 289 PA
Angel Morales (RHB, 20, A/A+) .286/.372/.444 4 HR, 38 RBI, 19 SB, 303 PA
Oswaldo Arcia (SHB, 19, R-ELZ) .455/.526/.939 4 HR, 9 RBI, 38 PA
Danny Ortiz (LHB, 20, R-ELZ) .290/.314/.645 2 HR, 6 RBI, 31 PA
Eddie Rozario (LHB, 18, R-GCL) .333/.391/.571 1 HR, 3 RBI, 2 SB, 35 PA
Candido Pimentel (SHB, 19, R-GCL) .360/.407/.480 1 HR, 1 RBI, 2 SB, 25 PA
Kelvim Ortiz (RHB, 18, R-DSL) .391/.462/.609 1 HR, 8 RBI, 6 SB, 52 PA


1st basemen/DH:

Brock Peterson (RHB, 26, AAA) .262/.339/.488 12 HR, 41 RBI, 290 PA
Kennys Vargas (SHB, 19, R-GCL) .435/.480/.652 1 HR, 3 RBI, 25 PA
Kelvim Sylvania (LHB, 19, R-GCL) .286/.348/.524 1 HR, 5 RBI, 23 PA


RH Starters:

Kyle Gibson (22, A+/AA) 3.10 ERA, 1.178 WHIP, 7.8 K/9, 3.25 K/BB
Bobby Lanigan (23, A+) 2.25 ERA, 0.944 WHIP, 7.3 K/9, 4.83 K/BB
Liam Hendricks (21, A/A+) 1.66 ERA, 0.826 WHIP, 8.6 K/9, 9.78 K/BB
Tom Stuifbergen (21, A) 1.49 ERA, 1.128 WHIP, 8.9 K/9, 4.00 K/BB
BJ Hermsen (20, A) 3.75 ERA, 1.192 WHIP, 4.7 K/9, 2.36 K/BB
Pedro Guerra (20, R-GCL) 0.90 ERA, 0.600 WHIP, 7.2 K/9, 2.00 K/BB
Cesar Ciurcina (19, R-GCL) 1.64 ERA, 0.663 WHIP, 4.9 K/9, INF K/BB
Ezequiel Zarzyla (19, R-DSL) 2.05 ERA, 1.000 WHIP, 7.4 K/9, 2.57 K/BB
Sterling Bonilla (18, R-DSL) 0.95 ERA, 0.895 WHIP, 5.2 K/9, 3.67 K/BB
Jose Jimenez (18, R-DSL) 2.81 ERA, 1.000 WHIP, 3.4 K/9, 0.86 K/BB
Orlando Villaroel (20, R-DSL) 2.84 ERA, 1.066 WHIP, 7.5 K/9, 1.91 K/BB

LH Starters:

Dan Osterbrock (23, A/A+) 2.59 ERA, 1.115 WHIP, 7.2 K/9, 3.50 K/BB
Martire Garcia (20, R-ELZ) 0.000 ERA, 1.167 WHIP, 12.0 K/9, 2.67 K/BB

RH Relievers:

Anthony Slama (26, AAA) 1.40 ERA, 0.889 WHIP, 10.2 K/9, 2.43 K/BB
Kyle Waldrop (24, AAA) 1.02 ERA, 1.038 WHIP, 6.1 K/9, 3.27 K/BB
Kane Holbrooks (23, A) 1.56 ERA, 1.116 WHIP, 12.7 K/9, 4.75 K/BB
Mark Trau (19, R-GCL) 0.00 ERA, 1.000 WHIP, 13.5 K/9, 3.00 K/BB
Angel Mata (17, R-DSL) 3.75 ERA, 1.083 WHIP, 12.8 K/9, 5.67 K/BB
Edgar Martinez (19, R-DSL) 2.25 ERA, 1.083 WHIP, 3.8 K/9, 2.50 K/BB
Junior Subero (18, R-DSL) 2.92 ERA, 1.135 WHIP, 5.1 K/9, 1.75 K/BB

LH Relievers:

Spencer Steedley (25, AA) 2.60 ERA, 1.096 WHIP, 9.4 K/9, 2,57 K/BB
Jose Gonzalez (20, A+) 1.20 ERA, 0.867 WHIP, 5.7 K/9, 2.63 K/BB
Andrei Lobanov (20, A+/R-ELZ) 1.91 ERA, 1.129 WHIP, 7.9 K/9, 5.00 K/BB
Nelvin Fuentes (21, R-ELZ) 1.80 ERA, 1.000 WHIP, 10.8 K/9, 3.00 K/BB

Thoughts about the Twins rotation

The Twins have just finished their annual interleague series, with results that did not fulfill expectations, posting an overall losing record, for the first time since 2005. This fact, in addition to an 11-game winning streak by the White Sox and a decent interleague performance by the Tigers, which brought these 2 teams one-and-a-half and half a game respectively, behind the Twins in the standing, has triggered a lot of speculation about the team with most fingers pointing towards the starting rotation. Trade speculation that will bring in pitchers like Cliff Lee and Roy Oswalt to the Twins has been rampart, and in the national media as well.

I am attempting to examine the performance of the Twins starting pitchers, compare it to that of a few pitchers, including Lee's and Oswalt's, and will share my thoughts.

I will use 2 criteria to look at pitching performance:

• Expected Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP)

and

• Expected Pitching Efficiency (xPE). I do like (and prefer) using PE, (K/9*K/BB)/WHIP, and xPE, PE*(BABIP/.295), as pitching performance indicators, but I am adding the more widely used xFIP

Here is the performance of Twins' starters, the AL average starters and a couple of other pitchers, including some historic data:

• Clearly (esp, as far as xPE is concerned, and xFIP pretty much agrees), the Twins have four above average pitchers in their rotation, and a fifth, Nick Blackburn, which is pitching at about replacement level. A quick look at the BABIP of the Twins' pitchers, will show that, with the exception of Pavano, it has been extremely high, and it is due for a correction that would result in more success, in terms of ERA and W-L, for the Twins starters. However, Blackburn's peripherals, esp. K/9 and K/BB are extremely low to make him a league average pitcher, even with the BABIP correction. I have criticized the contract extension and my reasoning was that (because of his conditionally low PE) he projects as a number 5 starter in a competitive team, and you do not lock your number five starter long term.


• Replacing Blackburn in the rotation, is pretty much imperative at this point. One of the arguments for bringing in Lee or Oswalt is that "the Twins lack a true Ace" and the newcomer will be that ace for the Twins' run in the post-season. If you look at Liriano's performance, both as far as xPE and (mostly) as far as xFIP is concerned, he is an Ace. His performance has been better than that of Johan Santana's in his last year with the Twins and that of both Lee (his 2010 xPE is off the charts, because of low BB/9) and Oswalt in both of their last 2 season. So, myth debunked: The Twins do have an ace, and his name is Fransisco Liriano.



• I think that unless Lee divides the clubhouse (and there have been a lot of questions about both his clubhouse presence and his character, and some indications of that were obvious to the Twins' fans with the infamous Gomez incident in 2008), I think that he will be a worthwhile addition, paired with Fransisco Liriano (a fellow lefty) on the top of the rotation. What will it take to pry Lee from the Mariners. There was a report that a trade was made involving Ramos, Duensing and an outfield prospect, which fell through because of Ramos oblique injury. I do not believe this trade rumor, mainly because it will be overpaying for the Twins. I think that Ramos will be the centerpiece in any package. Reportedly, Seattle wants "young outfielders" (is it because the Twins have many of those?) in addition to a young catcher. The Twins could really fit that bill with players like Benson and Roberts, but adding players like Hicks, Revere and Angel Morales will be overpaying. Personally I would like to see both Glen Perkins and Nick Blackburn go to the Mariners (the Twins might have to pay some of Blackburn's ill-advised contract), because it will be win-win situation for anyone involved: The Twins open 3 spots (Ramos' as well) on their 40-man roster, enabling them to add players like Waldrop and Slama, and a spot on the 25-man roster. The Mariners get two pitchers who had relative success in the majors in the past and they can resurrect their careers in a new environment in the Mariners' large ballpark.


• Oswalt on the other hand, would be better than Blackburn (not a tall order, Duensing will be better than Blackburn at this point) but not a top of the rotation starter. He never pitched in the AL before and all pitchers that made the NL to AL move later in their careers have not been able to translate NL success to AL success.


• How about Slowey? Disappointing season so far. In the last 3 games his velocity fell by about 2 mph (both average FB velocity and max FB velocity). I hope that he is not having injury problems and it is an adjustment that he is making that results in the decreased velocity. To be noted: Opponents hit for a 1.208 OPS off Slowey (and 1.341 OPS off Blackburn) when paired with Drew Butera vs. a .780 OPS off Slowey (and .953 off Blackburn) when paired with Joe Mauer. Slowey should always pitch at Mauer. Gardenhire, could adjusts Mauer's days off to coincide with the pitching days of Pavano (.663 oOPS with Mauer and .601 oOPS with Butera) or even Baker (.845 oOPS with Mauer and .740 oOPS with Butera.) There is no reason that Butera should not be Pavano's "personal catcher". That concept (the back up catcher catching one pitcher who has been successful with him as a catcher, unless there are injuries) has been a very wide spread practice and should be applied in this situation. I have been calling for Butera to go to AAA and be replaced by Morales since Morales was healthy, but it seems that there is a mis-understanding between Gardenhire and Morales at this point... Regardless, Butera has no business catching Slowey.


• The Twins are starting a critical 3 game series at home against Detroit today. Sweeping Detroit might make things a lot better, but, still, some changes (replacing Blackburn and selective use of Butera) should be in the Twins' future, as far as the starting rotation is concerned....