Some pitching-style comparisons, projected rotation for next week and worthless tidbits

Comparing the current Twins' young pitchers with previous Twins' pitchers based on their pitching styles and pitch arsenal:

Baker - Erickson
Bonser - Blyleven
Liriano - Viola
Slowey - Radke

(edit after the recent Liriano developments)_

3/31 LAA - Hernandez
4/1 LAA - Bonser
4/2 LAA - Blackburn
4/3 LAA - Slowey
4/4 KC - Baker
4/5 KC - Hernandez
4/6 KC - Bonser
4/7 @CHW - Slowey??

Just caught the 10th inning of the Cubs-Brewers game on MLB.tv and I really dig the new Brewers uniforms... Almost look like a batting practice jersey, blue with sharp gold lines underneath the arms. Really nice...

2007 Season opener

With the 2008 season opener approaching, here is one of the most exciting plays of last year's home opener

Some flaws in the Twins' 25 men roster

The 25-men roaster is all but set with the only question marks being whether Liriano and/or Baker will make the trip up north or stay in FL for extensive spring training until they build their endurance. Regardless, I think that there are some flaws in the 25 men roster that can be proven painful for the Twins this year:

• There are too many pitchers on the roster, leaving some serious deficiencies in the lineup. Historically, teams had 10 pitchers and 15 batters on their rosters. During the nineties, especially after expansion. The standard became 11 and 14. Now several teams are starting the season with 12 pitchers. This tactic, even though would lead to a fresher pitching staff, does not allow the manager to make appropriate substitutions in situational pinch hitting and running as well as in a day-to-day injury, unless the 4-man bench is set up correctly.


• The Twins have issues with their 4-man bench because Redmond is not very versatile; whomever from Monroe or Kubel does not start at DH can only play corner outfield positions successfully; Punto and Tolbert have pretty much the same skill set (infielders) and they are practically a duplication. A versatile outfielder (such as Pridie) could have been a better choice than one of the Punto/Tolbert duo


• Tolbert could be a potential pinch runner in late innings as could be Punto, but when Monroe is starting, there are no power righty bats of the bench.


• Another issue: Gomez is injury prone. He showed that yesterday. It that game, Gomez had a leg cramp and had to leave the game after the forth inning. With Monroe starting at DH, Gardernhire substituted Punto as the CF replacement, a totally inadequate substitution. A better course of action (albeit not ideal) would have been to move Young to CF and insert Kubel as the LF. This problem would be an issue if Gomez is day-to-day and out for a couple of days. This is why Pridie would have been a better choice... The only other position without good backup plan is 1B (the best case scenario if Morneau gets a minor injury would be to put Cuddyer on 1B with either Kubel or Monroe taking the RF position and again have no OF on the bench...


• The pitching staff itself is too righthanded with potentially (if Liriano is not ready) only 1 lefthander (Reyes) on the staff. This is not an issue against primarily righthanded lineups, like Detroit, but it can hurt in the long run. Neshek has a good record against lefties but he is the set up man. Perkins or Keisler should have probably taken Bass' spot (even though the later is out of options.)


• LH relievers are a rare and expensive fruit but the Twins should probably package a few people for a trade. There is a surplus of righthanders and it maybe time to see what a package such as Punto+Bass+Rincon can bring. Would it be enough for a situational lefty? Possible. Additionally, it would solve the bench Punto/Tolbert duplication issue. In such a scenario, Pridie would take Punto's spot, Humber Bass' and the new lefty Rincon's. I think that the Atlanta Braves might be an ideal trade partner, resulting to someone like Royce Ring or even Will Ohman coming to the Twins (with or without the inclusion of Bass in that trade...)

just some food for thought...

the best pitching prospect in baseball?

Yulieski González

He is a lefty, 28 years old playing for Habana Province and finished the Cuban league season with an 15-0 record, a 2.25 ERA and 111K in 124 innings...

New team, old team, blue team, green team

Does the average age of a team matter? Here is a list of the average ages of the world champion teams since 1980:

Year/Team/Average age Batter/Pitcher (*=NL)

2007: BOS 30.1/31.1
2006: STL 29.6/28.6*
2005: CHW 29.2/29.6
2004: BOS 30.5/32.5
2003: FLA 27.7/26.3*
2002: LAA 28.3/30.2
2001: ARI 31.9/30.9*
2000: NYY 31.3/32.0
1999: NYY 30.8/31.2
1998: NYY 30.4/30.2
1997: FLA 28.6/27.5*
1996: NYY 30.0/29.3
1995: ATL 27.9/27.4*
---three division league----
1993: TOR 29.3/29.5
1992: TOR 29.3/30.0
1991: MIN 29.1/28.6
1990: CIN 27.5/27.4*
1989: OAK 29.3/30.0
1988: LAD 28.9/29.2*
1987: MIN 27.8/31.4
1986: NYM 28.0/25.0*
1985: KCR 30.7/26.1
1984: DET 28.5/29.7
1983: BAL 29.7/28.1
1982: STL 27.8/28.7*
1981: LAD 29.3/26.2*
1980: PHI 30.6/28.6*

Twins the last decade and (position in division):
2007: 28.5/27.4 (3)
2006: 28.3/26.9 (1)
2005: 27.6/27.9 (3)
2004: 27.8/28.2 (1)
2003: 27.3/29.7 (1)
2002: 26.6/28.8 (1)
2001: 26.2/27.4 (2)
2000: 26.4/26.6 (5)

2008 ages would probably approximate 27.5/26.5





(data from baseball-reference.com)

100 win and 100 loss teams since 1980

100 wins:

2005: STL 100-62
2004: STL 105-57, NYY 101-61
2003: NYY 101-61, ATL 101-61, SFG 100-61
2002: NYY 103-58, OAK 103-59, ATL 101-59
2001: SEA 116-46, OAK 102-60
1999: ATL 103-59, ARI 100-62
1998: NYY 114-48, ATL 106-56, HOU 102-60
1997: ATL 101-61,
1995: CLE 100-44
---------three division league ends----------
1993: ATL 104-58, SFG 103-59
1990: OAK 103-59
1988: OAK 104-58, NYM 100-60
1986: NYM 108-54
1985: STL 101-61
1984: DET 104-58
1980: NYY 103-59, BAL 100-62

100 loses:

2006: TBD 61-101, KCR 62-100
2005: KCR 56-106
2004: ARI 51-111, KCR 58-104
2003: DET 43-119
2002: TBD 55-106, DET 55-106, MIL 56-106, KCR 62-100
2001: TBD 62-100, PIT 62-100
1998: FLA 54-108
1996: DET 53-109
---------three division league ends----------
1993: NYM 59-103, SDP 61-101
1991: CLE 57-105
1989: DET 59-103
1988: BAL 54-107, ATL 54-106
1987: CLE 61-101
1985: PIT 57-104, CLE 60-102, SFG 62-100
1983: SEA 60-102
1982: MIN 60-102, CIN 61-101
1980: SEA 59-103

Fearless prognostications

'Tis the time of year for that, so here is what my crystal ball says:

Playoff teams:

AL EAST: Red Sox 90-72
AL CENTRAL: Twins 89-73
AL WEST: Angels 91-71
AL WILD CARD: Seattle 88-72
DIVISION CHAMPRIONS: Seattle over Boston in 5, Twins over Angels in 4
AL CHAMPION: Twins over Seattle in 7
NL EAST: Mets 91-71
NL CENTRAL: Brewers 85-77
NL WEST: Padres 88-75
NL WILD CARD: Diamondbacks 86-77
DIVISION CHAMPRIONS: Mets over Diamondbacks in 4, Padres over Brewers in 5
NL CHAMPION: Mets over Padres in 7
WS CHAMPION: Twins over Mets in 6 with Liriano beating Santana in both his starts


Twins' team & player specific:

• There will be 4 players with more than 20 HR (Monreau - more than 30, Young, Kubel, Cuddyer). There will be an additional 4 players with more than 10 HR (Harris, Lamb, Monroe, Mauer) with Gomez maybe making the cut, potentially making Everett the only starter with less than 10 HR


• Gomez will break Knoblauch's Twins single season SB record (62, 1997) and challenge Clyde Milan's franchise record (88, Senators 1912)


• Nathan will break Guardado's single season saves record (45, 2002)


• One of the Twin's pitchers will have better record than Santana


• Another one of the Twin's pitchers will have better record and ERA than any of the names discussed in the Santana trade (Hughes, Lester, Kennedy)


• Gomez will score more runs than either Melky Carbera or Ellsbury


• The Outfield will have more than 50 assists (had 32 last year)


• Harris will have fewer errors than Bartlett this year


• D. Young will have more RBI than Torii Hunter

The season has officially started

The Boston Red Sox beat the Oakland Athletics 6-5 in front of 45,000 people in Japan in the premier of the 2008 MLB season. Manny Ramirez and Brandon Moss each has 2 hits for Boston with Ramirez picking up 4 RBI and Moss 2 including a game winning HR off Hudson Street in the 9th. Hannahan and Cosby each had 2 hits and a home run a piece for the As while Barton had 3 BBs. The A's team looked unrecognizable on paper... Pitching on both sides was spring training-like with both the closers surrendering runs.

Welcome to the new season

The roster is (almost) set

It looks like the lineup and bench are set...

Lineup:

Gomez CF
Mauer 2B
Cuddyer RF
Morneau 1B
Young LF
Kubel DH
Lamb 3B
Harris 2B
Everett SS

bench:
Redmond C
Monroe DH/OF (will be the starting DH against LHP)
Tolbert IF
Punto IF

Bullpen:

Nathan (CL)
Neshek
Reyes
Crain
Rincon
Guerrier
Bass (Spot starter)

Rotation:
Hernandez
Bonser
Slowey
Blackburn/Baker (Baker's spot but he is likely to start in DL)
Liriano (if not ready Bass might start or alternatively Humber called up)

Granderson was placed in the 15 day DL for Detroit; this means that Jacque Jones is the only lefty hitter in the team

Interesting article

About Ruiz in the St. Paul paper

Projected OPS+ numbers in the different spots of the batting order

OPS+ for the different places in the batting order (2008 based on 2007 OPS+ numbers)

2007 pr.2008 lineup

1 75 56* Gomez
2 86 117 Mauer
3 87 111 Cuddyer
4 95 121 Morneau
5 112 91* Young
6 104 109 Kubel
7 80 106 Harris
8 77 112 Lamb
9 100 56 Everett

*presumably Young and Gomez will increase their 2007 numbers.

Assuming that the starters will not start every game, there would be a 5-10% drop in those numbers due to AB by replacement players. Regardless, there is a huge difference between 2007 and 2008

supplement about pitching in 2007

Previously I discussed that the loss of Santana could be not as big as it seems in terms of his 2007 performance. Here is a list of all the 2007 starters with the record of games that the team won or lost when they were the starting pitchers

Slowey 7-4
Baker 13-11
Santana 16-16 *
Bonser 14-16
Garza 7-8 *
Silva 15-18 *
Ortiz 4-6 *
Ponson 2-5 *

The ones with asterisks are no longer with the team. In addition, the Diamondbacks were 16-17 in games that Livan Hernandez started (which would potentially put him under Santana in that list). The Twins were 10-4 in games Liriano started in 2006.

If we project 33 starts for 4 starters and 32 starts for the fifth, assuming that the team will perform similarly as last year, we'd have

Liriano 22-10
Slowey 21-12
Baker 18-15
Bonser 16-17
Hernandez 16-17

and total for the team 93-69. A bit of scrutiny about these assumptions and further refinement

• Liriano most likely would not be in his 2006 form, so let's give him 75% of 2006


• Hernandez is going from the NL to the AL, so let's give him 75% of 2007


• Bonser, Baker have improved, so let's give them 115% of 2007

The refined results:

Slowey 21-12
Baker 21-12
Bonser 18-15
Liriano 17-15
Hernandez 12-21

resulting to a team record of 89-73 (which is identical to that of the calculation based on close games lost last year, a few posts earlier)


Interested edit:

The ESPN projections have the Twins with a record of 86-76 and project Bonser at only 8 wins. The Baseball think factory's Zips projection (you need to do some work to find Livan Hernandez's numbers), has the Twins with 92 wins...

Division watch

Chicago White Sox

It looks like Joe Crede will be the starting 3B and Juan Uribe the starting 2B, while Nick Swisher the starter in CF. There also are questions about the leadoff spot. Ozzie Guillen is being Ozzie Guillen. The pitching rotation is set (Vasquez, Buehrle, Gavin Floyd, Contreras and John Danks). They had 42 wins and 52 loses as a group last year. Swisher, Brian Anderson and Konerco are having great springs where AJ Pierzynski, Cabrera and Crede are struggling. T. Ohka has been the surprise on the mount allowing only one run in 10 innings where Floyd and Conteras allowed 9 and 10 runs in 11 and 14 innings respectively. Chicago is 9-12 this spring.


Cleveland Indians

The Sabathia circus is in full swing and will not stop before he is signed or traded. Meanwhile, the 25 men roster is practically set with questions only about the last utility spots. Masa Kobayashi is getting adjusted to life in the States and sweems to be a lock in the bullpen. The only rotation question is whether Byrd will get punished by MLB for HGH use. Sizemore, Ben Fransisco and Gutierrez are having great spings where Dellucci and Garko are struggling. On the mount, all starters other than Westbrook who has not given up a run in 8 innings are struggling with ERAs ranging from 5.00 for Sabathia to 8.31 for Lee. Cleveland is 9-11 this spring

Detroit Tigers

The Tigers are having bullpen issues while Joel Zumaya and Fernando Rodney are out at least until mid season for Zumaya and a couple weeks for Rodney. Detroit's roster is closed to final, with bullpen being the major questionmark. Rodriguez, Polanco and Guillen are having great springs while Rentaria and Sheffield are struggling. Infield error watch: Cabrera 3, Rentaria 2, Sizemore 2. Rogers is having a great spring on the rotation, while Bonderman and Verlander are struggling. Todd Jones has a 14.85 ERAand T. Byrdak 10.00. Between the 2 of them they gave up 23 runs in 15.2 innings. Detroit is 11-10 this spring


Kansas City Royals

The Royals' rotation is all but set with John Bale, Brett Tomko, Jorge De La Rosa and Luke Hochevar fighting for the last spot. J. Guillen's upcoming suspension means that the Royals need to find a replacement RF for the beginning of the season. All in all the team is in flux. Butler, Callaspo, Huber and Teahen are having great springs whereas Berroa and German are struggling. The pitching has been very inconsistent this spring with only Meche (2.70 ERA in 10 innings) and Hochevar (2.25 ERA in 8 innings) being the bright points. The Royals are 10-10 this spring.

Why do I think that the Twins can win this year? Part II 2007 retrospect: The Santana factor

Johan Santana last year won 15 and lost 13 games. Would he be missed this year?

Here is a list of the 2007 games in which the Twins won when Santana was the starting pitcher

4/2 BAL 7-4
4/8 @CHW 3-1 *
4/19 @SEA 6-5
5/5 BOS 2-1 *
5/22 @TEX 7-1
5/28 CWS 10-4
6/19 @NYM 9-0
6/24 @FLA 7-4
6/29 @DET 11-1
7/4 @NYY 6-2
7/14 @OAK 5-3
7/28 @CLE 3-2 *
8/8 @KCR 11-4
8/19 TEX 1-0*
8/24 @BAL 7-4
9/9 @CHW 5-2

So only in 4 of these wins (25% noted with asterisks above), the team scored fewer than 5 runs. In all 16 games the Twins won when Santana started, the team allowed an average of 2.38 runs per game

Let's look at the teams wins in games that Bonser, Baker and Slowey started in 2007.

4/3 BAL 3-2 Bonser *
4/21 @KCR 7-5 Bonser
4/26 KCR 1-0 Bonser *
5/8 CHW 7-4 Bonser
5/13 DET 16-4 Bonser
5/19 @MIL 8-1 Bonser *
5/23 @TEX 5-3 Bonser
5/29 CHW 9-2 Bonser
6/10 WSN 6-3 Bonser
7/15 OAK 4-3 Bonser *
8/23 @BAL 5-2 Bonser
9/10 @KCR 4-2 Bonser *
9/27 @BOS 5-4 BOnser

5/19 @MIL 5-2 Baker
5/25 TOR 4-3 Baker *
5/30 CHW 7-6 Baker
6/20 @NYM 6-2 Baker
6/26 TOR 2-1 Baker *
7/6 @CHW 20-14 Baker
7/12 OAK 6-2 Baker
7/30 KCR 3-1 Baker *
8/5 CLE 1-0 Baker *
8/26 @BAL 11-3 Baker
8/15 @SEA 6-1 Baker
8/31 KCR 5-0 Baker
9/11 @KCR 6-3 Baker

6/1 @OAK 3-2 Slowey*
6/12 ATL 7-3 Slowey
6/17 MIL 10-9 Slowey
6/30 @DET 8-5 Slowey
9/17 TEX 5-4 Slowey
6/6 @LAA 8-5 Slowey
9/23 CHW 7-1 Slowey

From the team's 13 wins in games that Bonser started, in 5 (38.4%) the team scored fewer that 5 runs. The team allowed an average of 2.69 runs per game, in games the Twins won with Bonser as the starting pitcher

From the team's 13 wins in games that Baker started, in 4 (30.8%) the team scored fewer that 5 runs. The team allowed an average of 2.77 runs per game (if we disregard the 7/6 game, the number drops to a very impressive 1.83), in games the Twins won with Baker as the starting pitcher

From the team's 7 wins in games that Slowey started, in 1 (14.3%) the team scored fewer that 5 runs. The team allowed an average of 4.14 runs per game, in games the Twins won with Slowey as the starting pitcher

Thus, arguably Baker and Bonser could potentially offset the loss of Santana, comparatively to 2007.

Why do I think that the Twins can win this year? Part I 2007 retrospect:

Why do I think that the Twins can win this year?
Let's look at some games they lost last year:

Games that could have been won if Ponson and Ortiz were not starting (7):

4/20 (Ponson) @KCR 11-7 (Punto 3B, Redmond DH, Tyner LF starting)
4/15 (Ponson) KCR 4-3 (Rodriguez 3B, Tyner LF starting)
5/3 (Ortiz) @TBD 4-6 (Punto 3B, Tyner RF, Cirillo DH starting)
5/6 (Ponson) BOS 4-3 (Tyner RF, Cirillo DH, Rodriguez 3B starting)
5/15 (Ortiz) CLE 15-7 (G. Jones DH, Punto 3B starting, Cirillo, Tyner and Rodriguez pinch hitting; this is not a close game but Ortiz gave up 6, Perkins 3 and Crain 6 runs)
5/20 (Ortiz) @MIL 6-5 ((Punto 3B, Ford LF, Heitz C starting)
5/26 (Ortiz) Tor 9-8 (Cirillo 3B, Punto SS starting)

Cames that injured or inadequate relievers lost (8):

4/29 (Crain) @Det 4-3 (Punto 3B, Redmond DH, Rodriguez 2b starting)
8/1 (Rincon) KCR 5-3 (Tyner RF, Punto PH)
8/28 (Cali) @CLE 6-5 (Punto 2B, Tyner LF)
9/4 (DePaula) CLE 7-5 (White LF, Heitz C, Rodriguez 3B)
9/7 (DePaula) @CHW 11-10 (Tyner LF, G. Jones DH, Heintz C, Punto 2B)
9/8 (Cali) @CHW 8-7 (Tyner LF, Rodriguez 2B, Morales C, Punto SS)
9/26 (Blackburn) @Det 9-4 (White DH, Rodriguez 3B, Punto SS)
9/29 (Blackburn) @Bos 6-4 (Tyner LF, White DH, Rodriguez 2B)

1-2 run games lost starting Tyner, R. White, Cirillo, Punto, Rodriguez etc..., not mentioned above (26):

4/13 TBD 4-2 (Punto 3B, Rabe LF and Rodriguez DH)
4/22 @KCR 3-1 (Punto 3B, Rabe LF, Redmond DH)
4/24 CLE 5-3 (Tyner DH, Punto 3b)
4/29 DET 4-3 (Punto 3B, Redmond DH, Rodriguez 2B)
5/2 @TBD 4-3 (Punto 3B, Cirillo DH, Tyner RF)
5/4 BOS 2-0 (Punto 3B, Rabe RF)
5/17 CLE 2-0 (G. Jones DH, Punto 3B)
6/2 @ OAK 1-0 (Cirillo DH, Punto 3B)
6/3 @ OAK 4-2 (Punto 3B, Tyner DH)
6/9 WAS 3-1 (Punto 3B, Tyner DH)
6/22 @FLA 5-4 (Cirillo 3B, Ford LF)
6/27 TOR 5-4 (Punto 3B, Ford RF)
7/1 @DET 1-0 (Punto 3B, Tyner DH)
7/7 @CHW 3-1 (Cirillo DH, Punto 3B, Ford LF)
7/17 DET 1-0 (Cirillo DH, Tyner LF, Punto 3B)
7/18 DET 3-2 (Cirillo DH, Ford LF, Punto 3B)
7/19 DET 4-3 (G. Jones RF, Punto 3B, Tyner CF)
7/23 @TOR 6-4 (White DH, Tyner RF, Punto 3B)
8/9 @KCR 1-0 (White DH, Rodriguez 3B)
8/11 @LAA 4-3 (Punto 3B, White LF)
8/13 @SEA 4-3 (Punto 3B, Tyner DH, White LF)
8/29 @CLE 4-3 (White DH, Tyner LF, Punto 3B)
9/14 DET 4-2 (White LF, Punto 3B)
9/15 DET 4-3 (G. JOnes DH, Rodriguez 2B, Punto 3B)
9/16 DET 6-4 (Tyner LF, Heintz C, Rodriguez 2B, Punto SS)
9/21 CWS 6-4 (LeCroy DH, Ford LF, Punto 3B)


Total games 26+8+7=41...

Let's very conservatively assume that the Twins this year will win 1/4 of these games, due to upgrades in batting, the rotation and bullpen. That would be 10 games, giving them a record of 89-73 and easily making the playoffs, esp. given that most of these wins are on division rivals. The Twins' 2007 Record against division rivals was:

vs CHW 9-9
vs CLE 4-14
vs DET 6-12
vs KCR 9-9

v2

Some numbers from various CFs this spring (avg/obp/slg/sb/r/ab):

Ellsbury: .206/.263/.382/2/3/34
Hunter: .542/.560/1.125/0/9/24
Melky Cabrera: .407/.469/.519/1/7/27

C Gomez: .250/.275/.500/5/9/36
Pridie: .333/.324/.333/2/6/30
Span: .259/.394/.370/3/5/27

Ideal 25-men roster v3.15.08

1. Gomez CF
2. Mauer C
3. Cuddyer RF
4. Morneau 1B
5. Young LF
6. Kubel/Monroe DH
7. Lamb 3B
8. Harris 2B
9. Everett SS

bench
10. Monroe
11. Redmond
12. Punto
13. Ruiz
14. Pridie (if 11 pitchers)

Starters
15. Bonser
16. Hernandez
17. Baker
18. Slowey
19. Blackburn

20 Nathan
21 Neshek
22 Rincon
23 Reyes
24 Guerrier
25 Humber

if 12 pitchers Perkins gets Pridie's spot.

Liriano and Crain working out the kinks in the minors till ready

spring leaderboard, hitting, 19AB minimum:

AVG
1. R Ruiz .455
2. C Monroe .381
3. D Young .375
4. M Lamb .368
J Mauer .368

OBP
1. R Ruiz .500
2. J Mauer .480
3. A Casilla .423
4. C Monroe .417
5. D Young .412

SLG
1. R Ruiz .818
2. C Monroe .714
3. J Mauer.684
4. J Knott .571
5. M Cuddyer .536

OPS
1. R Ruiz 1.318
2. J Mauer 1.164
3. C Monroe 1.131
4. D Young .943
5. M Lamb .926

HR
1. R Ruiz 2
J Knott 2
J Kubel 2
C Monroe 2

R
1. R Ruiz 9
2. C Gomez 8
3. A Casilla 6
J Mauer 6
J Pridie 6

RBI
1. R Ruiz 7
J Morneau 7
3. C Gomez 6
D Young 6
5. M Cuddyer 6
J Kubel 6
C Monroe 6

SB
1. Gomez 5
2. Casilla 4
3. Span 3
4. Pridie 2
Punto 2

Put me in, coach....

Some numbers from various CFs this spring (avg/obg/slg/sb/r/ab):

Ellsbury: .190/.250/.429/2/1/16
Hunter: .600/.625/1.533/0/7/15
Melky Cabrera: .333/450/.467/0/3/15

C Gomez: .190/.208/.333/3/4/21
Pridie: .238/.247/.238/2/4/21
Span: .214/.421/.286/2/3/14