Meet and Greet: Luis Ignacio Ayala

Today the Twins ended their off-season futility by signing Luis Ayala, formerly of the Mets and Nationals to an one year, $1.3 million contract with up to $575 thousand in additional incentives. Last year Ayala made 1.7 million dollars and, depending on his performance, he would have a chance to exceed it in 2009. Luis was born on January 12, 1978

The road that brought Louis to the states from his native Mexico and to the majors has been an interesting one. His professional baseball career started as a successful starting pitcher at the Saraperos de Saltillo (Saltillo Sarape Makers). In his first 2 years in the States, American Baseball was like a summer job for him, singing contracts in 2001 and 2002 with the Rockies and the Expos. In 2001 he pitched 13 games in relief with Salem Avalanche of the Carolina (A+) league collecting 7 saves and in 2002 he was a set up man for the Ottawa Lynx of the International (AAA) League where he appeared in 6 games. His next "summer job" contract for the 2003 season was deemed to be with the Arizona Diamondbacks; however the Expos either saw something they liked in his 6-game stint with Ottawa or, most likely, were impressed with his real job performance as a starter, that selected him in the Rule 5 draft from the Diamondbacks. Other than rehab assignments, Ayala played only 19 games in the minors and pitched 21 innings. He did not disappoint the Expos in his first year, assuming the set-up role, playing in 65 games and pitching 71 innings collecting 3 saves while producing a 2.92 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 5.83 K/9 and 3.54 K/BB. He has a very deceptive delivery (see picture below) that has been very hard for right handers, but extremely easy for lefties. In his inaugural season RHB hit .188/.221/.267 and LHB .337/.398/.564 off Ayala.

2004 was his best season in the majors so far (hopefully this will change next year). Pitching 90.3 innings in 81 games as a set up man, Ayala accumulated a 2.69 ERA, 6.28 K/9, 4.20 K/BB and 1.18 WHIP. The move of the Nationals was not kind to him. He regressed slightly in 2005, but was still a very good pitcher (68 games, 71 IP, 2.66 ERA, 5.07 K/9, 2.86 K/BB, 1.25 WHIP). However, in 2006 Ayala became the poster boy of the detractors of the WBC: He blew his elbow in a WBC game and sat the 2006 out with Tommy John surgery. Ayala himself in an interview by the Washing Post said that he regretted playing to the WBC. In 2007 he started slowly, partly because he suffered a neck injury while trying to rehabilitate his surgically repaired elbow in extended spring training. By April his fastball velocity was only 85 mph and needed improvement. After a couple of rehab assignments he was activated and joined the Nationals in late June. He appeared in 44 games for the Nationals, pitching 42.1 innings producing respectable numbers: 3.19 ERA, 5.95 K/9, 2.33 K/BB, 1.30 WHIP. His rehab and return from Tommy John surgery is very similar to that of Fransisco Liriano (other than the part where the Nationals kept Ayala in extended spring training while the Twins rushed Liriano).

2008 was even less kind for Ayala. In a hunting trip in the off-season in Mexico (January 4th), he was shot by mistake by one of his buddies on his left (non-throwing) bicep (There still is one pellet in there; no word about airport metal detector issues). The Nationals doctors diagnosed "a bruised nerve" (btw, nerves don't "bruise") and gave him a clean bill of health. In addition to the "bruised nerve", in 2008, Ayala suffered a bruised ego when he his wife filed for and was awarded a divorce. In all respects, 2008 was a regrettable season for Ayala (who was traded to the Mets in a waiver trade August 17th for Anderson Hernandez, a AAA utility infielder, after he requested to be traded): 81 games, 71.7 IP, 5.71 ERA, 5.95 K/9, 2.08 K/BB, 1.45 WHIP. On an "exit interview" in Fredericksburg Free Lance Star, Ayala suggested that he lost his focus because of his off-field problems; however, an unnamed source told MLB.com back then that Ayala's problems came about by the fact that he was bypassed as the closer replacement for Chad Cordero.





Ayala has 3 pitches that he mixes regularly with good command (esp. before his surgery): a 91 mph sinker, an 85 mph hard slider and a 84 mph change up, which he throws anywhere in the count and spots locations. His out pitch had been his 2-seamer, but the last couple of years he has been relying on the slider as an out pitch more and more (with not much success). This singing makes the crowded Twins bullpen even more crowded, but Ayala (with his deceptive delivery) has the ability to replace Neshek (and his deceptive delivery). Whether or not his apparently fragile ego will clash with the brash personality of Gardy, remains to be seen.

Here is a video of Luis Ayala in his native Saltillo:

Book review: The King's Game, by John Nemo

I am trying something different here, which will hopefully be the first in a series of posts in this space: A book review. I am planning on reviewing baseball-related books and when feasible do a question and answer session with the author.

I am happy to present you the first book in the series, The King's Game by John Nemo as well as a Q&A session with the author.

Review

John Nemo’s book, The King's Game (available from Amazon.com just click on the link to order), really surprised me. From bylines and reviews I read prior to reading the book, I thought that it would be based on a story line similar to that of The Natural (A grizzled veteran player comes in out of nowhere and becomes the major star in a clinching game). Little that I knew…

The King’s Game is like a baseball: a solid core of pitch by pitch action in a futuristic game seven of a World Series inside (think rubber core), enveloped by an allegory (think leather), stitched together by a thread of Christian Spirituality (think red stitches in a ball). A great line in the book (in the “postgame” chapter; the book is cleverly structured in chapters based on baseball innings) perfectly describes the use of baseball in the book: “Baseball is a wonderfully submerged metaphor. A study of its subtleties reveals endless truths about our world.” Frankly, I have never read a single statement that can summarize the single more powerful force that makes someone a baseball fan… The baseball action in the book is spellbinding. The mind of the main protagonist, one of the most highly regarded pitchers of his era, is dissected as he delivers each pitch in the game seven of the World Series. I cannot think of a single baseball fan that would not like to have a insider’s view of such a situation. How much would you pay to sit on single synapse of Jack Morris’ brain in the game seven of the 1991 World Series? Well, this book is pretty close to that. Nemo is faithful to his baseball (he even has a box score of the game at the end of the book). I utterly enjoyed the exaltation of a game of baseball (albeit game 7 of the World Series; and we all know what those mean) into something more than baseball. And this is really what the book is all about. If I ran a bookstore and had to place the book under one single section, I couldn’t do it. I would place some copies under “Sports” and some under “Christian Spirituality” to be fair to Nemo’s work, because he excels in both. And for the people who automatically think “Christian Spirituality” is a preconceived red flag of sorts, this book is more than that. There is no “preaching” in this book. This book speaks to intelligent spiritual audiences of any (and no) religions. The two parallels that crossed my mind (more than crossed, actually, kind of smacked it like a fat curve that doesn’t break enough) when I was reading it were: Kafka’s Metamorphosis, while experiencing Cody King’s character’s development; and that huge Dylanesque rain allegorical overtones through out the story line (albeit, I suspect that“rain” –or water- has more of a “baptismal” notation for John Nemo than it has for Bob Dylan.) Yes, this is an existentialist book…

Go buy it (it is offered at Amazon, click the picture of the book below) and read it; if not for any other reason, get it because this is one of the extremely few places that perfectly describes a palmball. This book will make you think a bit more than balls and strikes and E-7s and has an amazing baseball action (it even make me grab a score card and keep score); it is a very fast read (I started and finished it last Saturday, a lazy morning, over a cup of coffee or two) that you don’t want to put down before the end. A total winner; but don’t listen to me, listen to Joe Nathan and Mike Cuddyer who both provided testimonials on the book.



Q&A with the author



The Tenth Inning Stretch: You describe baseball action like someone who actually pitched. Do you have any experience playing baseball?

John Nemo: Not beyond eighth grade baseball for the venerable St. Rose of Lima squad. However, I did grow up with a father who was a baseball fanatic and an English professor, and he used to hold court in the upper reaches of the Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome during the 1980s and early 1990s, teaching me everything he knew about the game - its beauty, poetry, symmetry, etc. Along with that, I spent 10 years covering the Twins and other MLB teams for media outlets including Minnesota Twins Magazine, the Associated Press, MLB.com and others. I spent many, many hours in the press box, on the field and in the clubhouse talking with players and getting inside their heads. Because of that I was able to get some of the Twins players - Torii Hunter, Michael Cuddyer and Joe Nathan in particular - to look over portions of The King's Game for me and give me feedback on the baseball action and authenticity.

TTIS:My understanding is that the game describes takes place in the future. One of the teams is the visiting St Louis Cardinals and the other is the Warriors from an undetermined city. There are some hints that you are describing the Cleveland Indians. Fictional team or do the Indians change their nickname sometime in the future?

JN:Actually in my mind's eye the game takes place in the present day or perhaps in the past. The Warriors are a fictional team - definitely inspired in part by the New York Knights in "The Natural." I intentionally left their city unnamed - it didn't feel right to put them in any one place.

TTIS:A friend of mine who is a writer told me that he always models his characters after people he knows. When you build your characters do you model them after particular ball players or are they imaginary, composed by different things you see in different players? Also, how do you decide on names for your characters?

JN:Some players are shadows of real guys - including David Eckstein, Rick Ankiel (the young stud pitcher version, not the current slugging outfielder edition) and others. Other players in the book embody certain characteristics - great bat/frying pan for a glove, great glove/toothpick for a bat, etc. - you see all the time in MLB. Names are usually done quite random - whatever pops into mind, really. The big thing is I try to avoid using names of real people I know - I'm not a fan of that at all, and it makes the book lose its magic for me. I also try to come up with names that I like the sound of, or names that seem to fit the personality of a character. Things like that.


TTIS:The World Series in the King's Game, took me back to the two Twins' World Series appearances. Was there any particular game 7 you watched that inspired the baseball action in the book?

JN:Definitely Game 7 of the 1991 World Series. Can anybody forget Jack Morris going 10 innings and looking ready for 10 more? Lonnie Smith getting faked out by Knoblauch? That was a game where you literally felt the pressure on every single pitch - a true Game 7, its outcome in doubt until the very final moments. Another one, though not a Game 7, is probably Game 6 of the 1986 World Series - the insanity and craziness of a New York crowd, everyone going nuts when Ray Knight scored the winning run, the chaos of it all - I love that atmosphere, and it shows up at times in The King's Game.

TTIS:You perfectly described the action of a palmball. This is very intriguing to me because the pitch, which I believe is one of the most effective pitches out there, has become obsolete, like the screwball. The only current pitchers who uses it (very rarely, are Roy Halladay and Trevor Hoffman) and the last pitcher of note to use it with any frequency was Mike Cuellar. Today, most people (even pitching coatches) think of a palmball as another changeup grip (which is of course wrong) Why a palmball?

JN:I've always been a fan of sneaky, tricky pitchers - Luis Tiant gets mentioned early on as someone the book's main character, Cody King, models his pitching style after. I always fooled with it playing in the backyard and especially playing wiffle ball with my buddies. I've always been a fan of it, and having artistic license with The King's Game, I decided to let it fly, so to speak.

TTIS:Let's change gears for a second. I could not help notice the rain/water allegory in the book. My first thought was that it was a baptismal symbolism. The more and more I got into the book, I had more and more doubts about that. What is the water symbolism in your book?

JN:The way I write, I am really not conscious or intentionally putting any type of metaphors or symbolism into my stories. It just happens. I literally just begin with a scene and then let the film in my mind begin to roll, and I just try to keep up with it, describing what I am seeing as the story beings to unfurl. The characters in the scene just start saying and doing things. It really is magic - a gift from God. Looking back at The King's Game, what comes to mind is the idea of a flood, of being overwhelmed, drowning, desperate, fighting against an unforgiving, rising tide. There are several instances in the book where that happens, and other scenes where water brings about great fear for Cody King.

TTIS:A couple of personal questions: Twins Fan? Since when? Who are your favorite all time and current players?

JN:Twins fan since moving to the Twin Cities at the age of 6 in 1981. Grew up on Gaetti, Hrbek, Bruno, Viola, Blyleven and the rest. Loved Kirby Puckett - what Minnesotan fan didn't? He was my favorite player of all time, hands down. When I was in college (early 1990s) I interned for Minnesota Twins Magazine and walked onto the field for the first time as a bona fide journalist. I had to interview Puckett for a feature on the magazine's kid's page, and I was so nervous. My job was to find out how Kirby broke in new gloves. He looked at me, straight-faced, and said, "I run my truck over it." I stuttered and stammered, thinking he was going to bust out laughing, but Kirby was dead serious - he said he put new gloves down in his driveway, then ran over them a few times with his truck. My favorite current Twins are Denard Span, Mauer, Morneau and Cuddyer.

TTIS:Are you currently working on any other books? When should we expect to see them in print?

JN:I do have a couple other novels that were recently published. "Miller's Miracle" is the story of a young man who discovers quite by accident that he's been given an incredible gift when it comes to the game of golf. "Jumper" is the story of how a teenager's curiosity about a dark family secret ends up propelling him back in time to the Roaring Twenties in gangster-friendly St. Paul, Minnesota.

For a complete biographical information on John Nemo and for information about his books, make sure to visit his web site johnnemobooks.com

The timeline of a rumor - Delmon for Washburn + Clement

This time of the year, especially this year where there is not much coal in the coffers and the usually hot off-season stove is colder than usual, rumors about impeding transactions fly left and right. I make a practice of neither propagating nor analyzing rumors (like there are not about 100 more places to go for that). I am not making an exception here with this post. I am just presenting it as an example of how rumors are propagated.

Case study: Delmon Young to the Mariners for Jake Washburn and Jeff Clement.

This rumor started here at 8:14 PM ET on February the second by John Hickey, a Seattle Post-Intelligencer reporter, who wrote on his blog: "One deal discussed in the last week or so involved sending Washburn and catcher Jeff Clement to Minnesota in exchange for 23-year-old outfielder Delmon Young."

At 8:46 PM ET, half an hour after the rumor was started. There was a compete analysis, including a major thumbs down here by Dave Cameron of USS Mariner, the most read independent Mariner's blog.

At 9:49 PM ET, Drew Silva of Tim Dierkes' MLBtraderumors.com picked up the rumor and posted it here at the MLB rumor mill clearing house.

One it got there, the most visited place by fans in the off-season, it started propagating like crazy with fans reaction abound: By 10:07 PM ET the first comment regarding it appeared at LEN3's blog, in an unrelated post about the MLB Network.

Next day, February the 3rd at 10:20 AM ET, Joe Christiansen, Twins Beat writer in Start Tribune, picks up the rumor and offers his thoughts

By 7:52 PM of the same day, Joe who is a real journalist, tried to confirm the rumor through his connections with the Twins who categorically said "no way" and he posts an entry on his blog to this effect. Kelly Thesier at MLB.com, piggybacks on Joe's post at 8:07 PM and ups the ante, contradicting Hickey, saying that the particular trade was never proposed.

At 8:37, Dierkes' team over the MLBtraderumors clearing house, picks Joe's article up and rehashes that the "deal" is dead.

You'd think that the rumor would be dead and buried by then, right? Nope. At 8:19 AM ET Today (February 4th), Yahoo's MLB rumor site, picks up and rehashes Christiansen's 10:20 AM post of the previous day, suggesting that the rumor is alive (but totally ignores to look at the second post that kills the rumor).

This is the main reason I do not try to propagate rumors here... In the days of internet and RSS, things that come out of a blogger's head move fast (and esp. if that blogger is affiliated with the traditional press) spread as truths everywhere (anyone remember the Cuddyer for Atkins rumors out of Denver?). It is better to wait and see something actually reported about a trade that happened that get nuts about a trade that might make sense if it happens.

The best think that came out of this particular rumor (the seed of course was planted by Sid Hartman and Charlie Walters in the early off-season) is the newest Twins-related internet site, Keep Delmon!. Go have a look and vocalize your support, it is a worthy cause :)

How much of a bargain is Joe Crede?

There have been reports that the Twins are interested in Joe Crede and sent 2 scouts in his Arizona work outs yesterday and today. Earlier this off-season, Joe Crede was called a free agent bargain, even though he had 2 back to back back surgeries to repair 2 herniated discs in his spine. How much of a bargain he is?

Let's examine the facts.

First: What they hey is a herniated disc and why have a back surgery:

WebMD defines a herniated disc as a protrusion of a degenerated or fragmented intervertebral disc into the intervertebral foramen with potential compression of a nerve root or into the spinal canal with potential compression of the cauda equina in the lumbar region or the spinal cord at higher levels characterized by disruption of the annular fibrosis. In plain English: there are discs in your spine that are located inside vertebrae (those are your stacked spine bones, think Jenga). The discs are flexible and they are lubed and help you move. All around them there are nerves. The spine is the mother of all nerves in the human body. And nerves make things move (formally: propagate signals sent from your brain to your muscles) and are the things that make you feel pain. For example, if you have a tooth ache, your tooth doesn't hurt, but the nerves in your teeth "hurt" (formally: send "pain" signals back to your brain; it's a 2-way street), so the dentist goes and does a "root canal" (gets rid of the nerves inside your teeth) and you don't feel the pain. Not that getting Crede will be like getting a root canal (watching Buscher buschering balls is like one), but I am digressing...

Back to the back.

When you do something funky with your back (like trying to throw 50lbs of cement in a truck X 100 a day or try to give your 110lb 12 year old a piggy back ride) or have an accident (like have some cleats landing on your back the wrong way or having your aforementioned 110lb 12 year old land or your back the wrong way or consumed about 20 too many cases of beer last year and your 50lb overweight gut had no muscles to support your back when tried to lift that one last box of books off your basement to sell on ebay) one of those spongy little things might 'slip'. And that is called a "herniated disc" and usually hurts like hell a bit higher than your tailbone. If you messed it up bad enough, you feel it down one or both of your legs (and butt) and it is called "sciatica" (remember, the spine is the mother of all nerves and one of them is the longest nerve of your body, the sciatic nerve that travels from the spine, just a couple of inches north of your butt crack down to the bottom of your feet. That's a nasty nerve because when it's messed up in the bottom of your feet, esp. if you have high arches, it is called patellar tendinitis and hurts like hell, too. Think Marty Cordova and Shannon Steward, but that's a different story).

Back to the back

So Crede had not one but two of those discs messed up. What does the average Joe do when his disc is messed up? He (if he has adequate insurance these days, goes to his primary care physician who writes him a pink -or yellow- referal slip to a specialist, to cover his/her rear end, who in turn subjects him to a bunch of X-rays and MRIs to cover his rear and the result is that the average Joe/Jane) takes medication (anti-inflammatory, think ibuprofen and cortisone shots) rest, heat pads and physical therapy. Half of the average Joes (and Janes) affected by herniated discs are fine after a month of this regiment. 90% of the average Joes (and Janes) are fine after 6 months of this regiment. Only 10% of the herniated disc cases result in surgery. What kind of surgery? Well, this is not exactly therapeutic surgery (like you got an inflamed appendix, you get it out, no more inflamed appendix, no more pain) but it is the equivalent of a root canal: You either get the extra fluid that builds up and presses on the nerves making them hurt sucked away in a variety of ways or get the misplaced disc out of there and two neighboring vertebrae are "glued" together (the latter is called "fusion" and its a kind of an old school method). These days for degenerative conditions like osteoporosis (or a nasty accident) when the vertebrae themselves are shot, one can get brand new titanium vertebrae, but this is not the case here. Surgery is all about pain management. Get the disc out of there that rubs the nerve the wrong way or get the fluid out of there that rubs the nerve the wrong way. Nerves are divas. You gotta take care of them. Crede had door number 2: Fluid drainage. Twice.

Back to the average Joe with the average back problem. How rare is to need 2 consecutive operations to solve the same (or 2 of the same) issues? Only about 1% of average Joes (and Janes) need to have that to be done to them to be pain free. Crede did. And Crede is an athlete and much better conditioned that the average Joe or Jane with a herniated disc, who is probably 25-50 lb + overweight. Two conclusions here: either this is the mother of all herniated discs (or a couple of them) or Joe did not receive the proper regiment to allow him to heal (rest, rest, rest). Hard to tell what it might be.

Enough pig Latin Anatomy; back to baseball: Let's assume that Crede's surgery is successful (and I wholeheartedly wish it is.) What should a team anticipate from him?

I looked at all the major league position players I could find who had back surgery from their mid twenties to their mid thirties (if you know of anyone else, please tell me; pitchers like Kevin Brown, Eric Gagne, Randy Johnson and company were excluded, so were position players- Cal Ripken- who had the surgery in their late 30s) and here are their slash number lines the season before surgery, the season of their surgery (in bold) and the two seasons after surgery (if applicable.) The year of the surgery is indicated by the player's name and the player's age at the season of the surgery is indicate in the line of that season:

John Castino (1981)

1980: .302/.336/.430 (546 AB)
1981: .268/.301/.396 (381 AB) age: 26
1982: .241/.304/.344 (410 AB)
1983: .277/.348/.403 (563 AB)
last season: 3 years after surgery

Ron Kittle (1989)

1988: .258/.323/.533 (255 AB)
1989: .302/.378/.556 (169 AB) age 31
1990:.231/.293/.438 (338 AB)
1991:.191/.291/.319 (47 AB)
last season: 2 years after surgery

David Winfield (1989)

1988: .322/.398/.530 (559 AB)
1989: DNP age: 36
1990:.267/.338/.453 (475 AB)
1991:.262/.326/.472 (568 AB)
last season: 6 years after surgery

Darryl Strawberry (1992)

1991: .265/.361/.491 (505 AB)
1992: .237/.322/.385 (156 AB) age 30
1993: .140/.267/.310 (92 AB)
1994: .239/.363/.424 (89 AB)
last season: 7 years after surgery

Sandy Alomar, Jr. (1993)
1992: .251/.293/.324 (299 AB)
1993: .270/.318/.395 (215 AB) age 27
1994:.288/.347/.490 (292 AB)
1995: .300/.332/.478 (203 AB)

Jose Canseco (1999)
1998: .237/.318/.518 (583 AB)
1999: .279/.369/.563 (430 AB) age 34
2000: .252/.377/.444 (329 AB)
2001: .258/.366/.477 (256 AB)
last season: 2 years after surgery

Eric Chavez (2007)
2006: .241/.351/.435 (485 AB)
2007: .240/.306/.446 (341 AB) age: 29
2008: .247/.295/.393 (89 AB)

Mark Kotsay (2007)
2006: .275/.332/.386 (502 AB)
2007: .214/.279/.296 (206 AB) age: 31
2008: .276/.329/.403 (402 AB)


And here is the point of the inquiry:

Joe Crede (2007, 2008)
2006: .283/.323/.506 (544 AB)
2007: .216/.258/.317 (167 AB) age: 29
2008: .248/.314/.460 (335 AB) age: 30
2009: ?


If we average the OPS and the AB of these players before surgery, the year after surgery and the second year after surgery and look at OPS and AB the first and second years after surgery as fractions of the year before surgery we have:OPS 1 year after surgery = .92 of year before surgery, OPS 2 years after surgery = .96 of year before surgery;AB 1 year after surgery = .66 of year before surgery, AB 2 year after surgery = .62 of year before surgery

if these fractions are applied on Crede's 2006 numbers the predicted values for Crede's 2009 and 2010 seasons are:

2009: .763 OPS in 359 AB
2010: .796 OPS in 337 AB

As a reminder in 2008, Brian Buscher had .730 OPS in 218 AB and Brendan Harris .721 OPS in 434 AB. Harris had a .777 OPS in 521 AB with the Rays in 2007. Also Wigginton had an .876 OPS in 386 AB with the Astros in 2008. And a .792 OPS in 547 AB with the Rays and the Astros in 2007. And it sounds like he will be jumping in joy if he receives half of what Crede allegedly wants to play next year.

Draw your own conclusions about what is the best direction that the Twins should go. Here is my analysis of the third base situation last October and I still stand by it.

Remember the off-season contest is still on. Go to the link and give me your thoughts. 4 people did already. If you guess better than they did, you will win a copy of one of the best minor league publications for the Twins, the Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook - 2009, by Seth Stohs of SethSpeaks.net a major authority in the Twins' blogosphere, personally autographed by Seth himself.

Details on Kubel's contract

Joe Christensen posted the details of Kubel's new contract with the Twins: 2009: $2.75 million, 2010: $4.25 million and an option for 2011 for $5.00 million.

Even in the current climate, this contract is very good for the Twins. Kubel just finished his age 26 season and produced at the rate of .272/.335/.471. His .199 isoP had him tied for the team lead with Justin Morneau. Another year removed from his leg injury and entering his prime years, Kubel is almost certainly destined to have a breakout season within the span of the contract. Not to be forgoten than at age 22, before he got promoted to Rochester, he led the Rock Cats with .377/.452/.667. That .290 isoP is the second highest that any current Twin had in pro ball, behind Morneau's .309 at his age 23 season in Rochester when he batted .306/.375/.615. How big was Kubel's New Britain season? The second best effort from a Twins batter in the minor leagues was the age 23 season of David Ortiz in Salt Lake City in the Pacific Coast League (a major hitter's league) when David had a .315/.413/.590 slash line.

Let's compare Kubel's age 26 season last year with several Twins LH power hitter age 26 seasons:

Kubel: .272/.335/.471
Morneau: .271/.343/.492
D. Ortiz: .272/.339/.500
Kent Hrbek: .267/.353/.478

it seems that Kubel is in good company


Remember the off-season contest is still on. Go to the link and give me your thoughts. 2 people did already. If 2 more do, you are all guaranteed to win a copy of one of the best minor league publications for the Twins, the Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook - 2009, by Seth Stohs of SethSpeaks.net a major authority in the Twins' blogosphere, personally autographed by Seth himself.

Shedding light to the obscured minor league I: DSL. The path to the majors

A quick look at every minor league prospect list be it from Baseball America, scouts.com, or any specialized team web site or blog or a quick look to the potential draft picks, high school or college age, seems to ignore a very important fact:

About as many first draft picks in the amateur draft (that includes players from the US and its protectorates, mainly Puerto Rico, and Canada) made the all star game as players who were signed as free agents in a young age from Latin American countries.

Let’s follow the path of an American high school phenom for a year who is drafted by a professional baseball team: He will most likely end up playing for the Gulf Coast League (GCL) in Florida or the Arizona league, depending on where the team that signed him plays its spring training games. Then depending on performance he will repeat another year at that level or move to the full season rookie leagues (Appalachian or Pioneer) or short season A league (New York/Penn league, Northwest league) depending on the affiliation of the team that singed him. Highly ranked prospects get major league contracts paying them about a million dollars a year for 5-6 years and a hefty sign on bonus, regardless the level a player is starting his professional career.

What is the path of a phenom from the Latin American countries? Usually signed at 15-16 years old, by a scout who scouts neighborhood street games and sees a kid who in his mind has some potential. The kid gets a $5-6,000 check at the best case (which almost always goes back to the family to take care of family bills and siblings and whatnot) and then is enrolled into a team’s “Academy”. There he receives education in English as well as in baseball. Depending on the time of year he signed the contract and his skills, the next year he might play in the Dominical Summer League. The DSL is the league that offers the highest level of competition for newly crowned Latin American professionals (btw, I still have a hard time trying to get figures on their salaries these days or their per diems, if some reader knows more about that, please contact me or comment on this post.)

Next step? If some satisfies the scouts there and/or plays a position that fits his team’s needs, during the offseason applications for passports, visas and other requirements are made so next year that player would enter the US (supposed armed with all the English and the cultural knowledge he learned in the ‘academy’) and join the GCL or the Arizona league and meet and play with his newly drafted professional colleagues…

(to be continued)

Remember the off-season contest is still on. Go to the link and give me your thoughts. 2 people did already. If 2 more do, you are all guaranteed to win a copy of one of the best minor league publications for the Twins, the Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook - 2009, by Seth Stohs of SethSpeaks.net a major authority in the Twins' blogosphere, personally autographed by Seth himself.

Rumors, rumors and a break in the inactivity with some theoretical stuff

There have been several rumors these days linking the Twins to reliever free agents Russ Springer and Eric Gagne (unlike the former Twin Greg Gagne he kept the French pronunciation, as in the Minnesota pro-wrestler family; see: Gagne, Verne et. al.) and Joe Crede (and even Dan Uggla, to my delight). I am not really going to propagate those rumors or discuss them until (or if) someone is actually signed, when I will do an analysis of the signing.

Here is today's subject:

What should be the optimal balance of pitching and position players in a 25-man roster for the Twins to improve?

Last season, the Twins went with a 12 man pitching staff (for a while 13). I think that this worked to their disadvantage. Here is my train of thought:

I think that the ideal bullpen should be six. Here is my reasoning:

Assume 1460 innings pitched by the whole Twins' staff (the amount the Twins pitchers pitched in 2008)

If every starter pitches 6.3 innings, 4 will pitch 33 games and the fifth 30. Starters will take care of 1021 innings this way.

The pen would be responsible for 439 innings. Nathan averaged 70 innings in each of his years with the Twins. So the remaining 5 pitchers will be responsible for 369 innings. If the long man gets 90 innings (a reasonable average for mop up pitching) the remaining 4 would be responsible for 279 innings or 69.7 innings per pitcher which is very doable.

What would this require?

a. other than the mop up man, 4 good relievers that can get opposing hitters out no matter whether they are lefties or righties.

and

b. Gardy to quit bringing up pitchers just for one batter. This wastes pitchers.

How doable is it?

Let's assume than Nathan is the closer and Humber the long man.

Opponents OPS:

(the MLB average for relievers is .726)

Bonser RHB: .715 (fine) LHB .866 (not good)
Breslow RHB: .563 (great) LHB .462 (great)
Crain RHB .755 (so so) LHB .719 (fine)
Mijares (small sample warning) RHB .150 (super), LHB .286 (super)
Guerrier RHB .802 (not good) LHB .801 (not good)

Remember, only 4 of these 5 will be in. If Guerrier is out and another good reliever comes in (or if Guerrier resurrects himself) relegating Bonser to the long man position and Humber out, it is very doable.

just for fun,

Springer's numbers: RHB .456 (super) LHB .848 (ouch).
(no, folks, he ain't the one)

The flexibility that an extra position player will provide, esp. with the infield questions is probably better than the luxury of using pitchers just for one batter.

Still don't believe me?

Here are some more data from last season:

Team OPS in the 8th inning: .697, in the 9th .708 and in extra innings .668 (not good; Twins' overall OPS .748, AL overall OPS .756).

Twins' Team OPS for PH .803

I think that this little piece of data makes the case for an extra person on the bench as a PH in late innings stronger.

what do you think?


Remember the off-season contest is still on. Go to the link and give me your thoughts. 2 people did already. If 2 more do, you are all guaranteed to win a copy of one of the best minor league publications for the Twins, the Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook - 2009, by Seth Stohs of SethSpeaks.net a major authority in the Twins' blogosphere, personally autographed by Seth himself.

So just do it, as the Nike marketers once said

December contest and new contest

Last month it was the first of the contest series in this spot. The challenge question was "Predict the moves that the Twins' front office will make by the end of December". Unfortunately, nobody predicted the moves that the Twins did in December: Sign RA Dickey, picking up Jason Jones and Henry Arias in the rule 5 draft and signing 4 minor league free agents.

I thought about declaring the winner as the first person that responded (Twins Territory), but for fairness' sake, I am doing this:

I am having a new contest and the time frame is longer

The question is the same:

Predict the moves that the Twins' front office will make

but the end point is by opening day.

The scoring rules are:

• 3 points for each correct major league player move (i.e. if someone says that the Twins trade Perkins and Span for Beltre, he or she will get 9 points)


• 1 point for each minor league move and roster addition or subtraction


• All players in the moves need to be identified correctly to receive points (e.g. "the Twins will acquire a relief pitcher", will receive no points)


• Dollar amounts of contracts are not necessary


• If no moves are made the first person that says "no moves" wins

The price?

4 prices actually (because I have 4 extras of them):

The people with the best four scores will each win a a copy of one of the best minor league publications for the Twins, the Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook - 2009, by Seth Stohs of SethSpeaks.net a major authority in the Twins' blogosphere, personally autographed by Seth himself.

Again, you have to post the answer at the comments in this entry and cannot be anonymous for fairness. One answer for each person, so think before you post.

Get a friend or two to participate too :)

good luck!

Seven things I want to see in 2009

1. The Vikings winning the Super Bowl


2. The Twins get a real third baseman or at least banish Buscher to the minors


3. The Twins get a starting pitcher and trade Perkins for that aforementioned third baseman


4. Delmon Young wins the MVP award


5. Kevin Slowey wins the Cy Young award


6. Boof Bonser wins the Rolaids award as set up man extraordinaire


7. The Twins sweep the Yankees to advance to the ALCS, sweep the Angels to advance to the World Series and beat the Cubs 4-3 winning all the games in the dome

Five (free) things to do while waiting for spring training

1. Are you missing your advent calendar and those little chocolates hiding behind it's pockets? Go daily to Josh Johnson's blog for a countdown of his Twins' top 50 prospects compete with profiles and information. Sweeter than chocolate


2. Can't live without daily stats and box scores? Ease your withdrawal by following the Twins organization players performance in the winter leagues


3. Give yourself a head start for the world baseball classic by going here reading about international baseball and marvel at the popularity of a sport that ten years ago was primarily a Western Hemisphere and Eastern Asian sport. Learn all about teams such as the Óbuda Brick Factory and the Danesi Caffe' Nettuno


4. Do you feel that the hot stove have been fairly tepid lately? Keep weekly track of the minor league transactions here


5. Last but not least: Root for the Vikings all the way to a Super Bowl victory and follow their daily events and player news at Access Vikings and Kevin Seifert's blog

Congratulations NFC North Champs!

Playoff Predictions:

Vikings over Eagles
Arizona over Atlanta

Vikings over Carolina
Arizona over Giants

Vikings over Arizona

Indianapolis over San Diego
Dolphins over Ravens

Indianapolis over Titans
Steelers over Dolphins

Steelers over Colts

Vikings over Steelers

If the history repeats itself...

... the last year in the Metrodome (2009) does not look too good for the Twins.

Here are the records and finishes of all the teams in the franchise in the last year of a stadium:

1903 Washington Senators (American League Park I) 43-94 (8th out of 8 in the AL)

1010 Washington Senators (American League Park II) 66-85 (7th out of 8 in the AL)

1955 Washington Senators (Griffith Stadium I) 53-101 (8th out of 8 in the AL)

1960 Washington Senators (Griffith Stadium II) 73-81 (5th out of 8 in the AL)

1981 Minnesota Twins (Metropolitan Stadium) 41-68 (7th out of 7 in the AL West)

Will the 2009 team break the curse of the last year in a stadium for the Twins/Senators franchise?

Meet and greet R. A. Dickey

This is the second time in 2 years that the Twins signed R.A. Dickey as a minor league free agent. Last season they lost him to the Mariners in the rule 5 draft. While the Mariners could not add him to their 25 man roster, they worked a trade with the Twins that brought Jair Fernandez a catcher who just turned 22 past December 10 and had a .283/.333/.370 season while throwing out 46.7% of attempted stollen base runners in Beloit (Midwest league, A) last year. Last May I described that trade as a mistake.

Given what we know now, about the failures of Rincon and Bass in the pen, it looks like it was probably a mistake, since R.A. Dickey posted a 2.00 ERA and held opposing batters to a .205/.287/.307 line as a reliver with the Marines while compiling an 1.11 WHIP, 1.43 K/BB and 5.0 K/9 in 36 innings of relief.

Let's dig a bit deeper. Dickey also started 14 games for 76.3 innings and he was horrible as a starter: Opponents batted .316/.385/.506 off him, he had a 6.72 ERA, 1.77 WHIP, 1.01 K/BB and 4.49 K/9. That is below replacement level. For comparison purposes, while with the Twins, Livan Hernandez had a 5.48 ERA, 1.63 WHIP, 1.86 K/BB, 3.50 K/9. Given that knuckleballers can pitch until embalmed and should not have that much difference between starting and relieving (because they can go for many innings in consecutive days), how is this schism on Dickey's stats explained? Looking even closer, there are several warning signs about Dickey:


a. His knuckleball is too fast. It averages 73 mph while his fastball averages 85 and his change 74. To be effective in needs to be in the 60s maximum.

b. His knuckleball has not enough movement. Given that and its speed hitters sit on it like a change and hit it like a change. Hitters chased only 18% of his knuckleballs last season (for comparison purposes hitters chased 37% of Bonser's off-speed offerings and 40% of Guerrier's). In addition to the lack of the movement, he does not have control of it. His overall K/BB last season was 1.14.

c. Last season he threw 65% knuckleballs and 30% fastballs (of the Livan variety of “fastball” with similar results, 1.56 WHIP) He’s got to be at the 90% knuckleball 10% fastball range

d. His BABIP as a starter was .322 and as a reliever a ridiculous .226; which means that with a normal BABIP of .290 he would be closer to a 4.75 ERA 1.45 WHIP pitcher.

I do not have the numbers, but maybe as a starter he used his fastball more and an 85 mph fastball in this league is bigger than a harvest moon to a professional hitter (ask Livan). If this is the case, a good pitching instructor who specializes on knucleballers (alas, the Twins have none such beast in their current staff) might fix the problem.

Which Dickey will show up next year (Jeckyl or Hyde, R or A) is hard to fortell; regardless, R.A. Dickey is a great human story

One more note: Number 41 is taken by Bobby Korecky. Would he been a better option than Dickey in the Twins' pen?

Twins' fans' Christmas present: R. A. Dickey

a full profile to follow, but this spot from Mike and the Mad Dog sums up my feelings pretty much...

Happy Holidays to all!!!

Catch-19?

’cause things are fairly quiet now, time to stir the waters a bit ;)

here goes another interesting situation with potential Twins’ consequences:

a. Every team has until March to offer every player in its roster a contract (in most cases for players not going to arbitration or signed to a contracts it is a typical situation: player is under team control, team offers minimum, thing done)

b. Atlanta’s owner, GM and the whole front office after the Furcal situation are in record saying that they will never sign a player represented by or work with the Wasserman group of agents (Furcal’s agents)

c. Guess who is represented by the Wasserman group? Yunel Escobar.

Do you think that he will not be offered a contract and thus become a free agent or do you think that Atlanta’s owner, GM and front office will offer him a contract and prove that their word is worth as much as the Wasserman group in the Furcal negotiations?

nice Catch-19 (Escobar’s jersey number) situation…

Welcome Henry Arias; so long Juan Sanchez, David Shinskie and Jose Lugo

Yesterday, I profiled the Twins Major League rule 5 draft pick Jason Jones; today, I will give you the profiles of the other players involved in the Twins' Rule 5 draft:

Henry Arias will be 24 years old next January and was the player to be named later in the the trade that sent minor leaguer Brad Salmon to the Royals from the Reds last summer. Probably his biggest claims to fame are that he shared last names with one of the best players to wear a Twins' uniform and that he was involved in the infamous bench clearing brawl between the Dayton Dragons and the Peoria Chiefs last July, and was almost hit by lightening when on the mount for the Burlington Bees against the Clinton LumberKings, before his trade last June.

His highest level of play was the Midwest league, last season, where he was fairly old at 23. In the previous two seasons he pitched at the Arizona League (low Rookie) and the Appalachian league. Being in the same league as Twins' farm clubs the last two seasons, the Twins had plenty of time to scout him. He has been a set up man the last year and finished 24 games of the 39 he appeared, accumulating 3 saves on the way. I think that the Twins see more to him than his numbers (career: 4.76 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, 1.61 K/BB and 7.23 K/9) or his scouting report (borderline plus sinker at 88-90 mph, curve, change up) indicate. He is slated to start the season in Rochester (which will be more appropriate for his age, 24); however, Delaney and Slame are better suited for a promotion there. He may end up in New Britain or Ft. Myers (both places will be promotions for him).

Juan Sanchez was selected by Milwaukee in the 4th round of the AAA portion of the draft. The soon to be 22 year old righty made the transition from the DSL in 2007 to the GCL in 2008, where he was a major contribution posting .314/.382/.467 as a SS and 3B. His OPS was 4th in the team and the best for an infielder. He was blocked in the team by Tyler Ladendorf and was one of the oldest players in the league. Juan ranked 13th in my Twins hitting prospects list, ahead of names such as Danny Valencia and Luke Hughes. He did not figure as a top prospect in other lists. He will be missed by the Twins more than any other player selected, but there was no way to put him in the AAA roster. Milwaukee is taking a chance, because he probably is not ready for AAA. It has to be noted that, unlike the MLB portion of the Rule 5 draft, a player taken in the minor league portions is not required to be in a AAA roster all season. He is automatically property of the new club.

David Shinskie was selected by Toronto in the minor league portion of the draft. He is a 24 year old RHP former starter turned reliever the last few years. He signed out of high school at 19 and took a long time to develop, mainly because of injuries. His highest level was in New Britain in 2006 and 2008 season. Career 4.68 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 2.22 K/BB, 6 K/9. He was blocked by several relievers in the Twins system. In 2006 he was thought as a better prospect than Scott Baker, Glen Perkins and Nick Blackburn (this is a good reason not to believe prospect rankings), but he regressed due to injuries. He was the 16th relief pitching prospect in my list. I hope he turns it around with the Blue Jays organization.

Jose Lugo was a pick that did not make much sense. He was the 9th overall player selected in the Major league portion of the draft by the Kansas City Royals and his rights were immediately sold to the Mariners. He needs to be in the Mariners 25-man roster all season, otherwise he will return to the Twins. Lugo is a 24 year old lefty starter turned reliever who pitched at Ft. Myers last season. He accumulated a 4.04 ERA a 1.46 WHIP and a 2.3 K/BB but he was a strikeout (9.91 K/9) and ground ball (57%) machine. He has a great hard sinker. As a fist sight he has the makings (and the name) to be a ML LOOGY; however, his problems are that LHB hit .264 (vs .253 for RHB) off him and his WHIP was 1.57 against LHB vs. 1.29 against RHB. He does strike out lefties at a rate of 12.90 K/9, but this is in the Florida State League. Would it be sustainable in the majors? Jose ranked 20 in my Twins relief pitching prospect list

Make sure that you participate in the December contest! You do want Seth's book, don't you? Much more information about these players and a whole slew of Twins prospects in there!

Contests, contests!, contests! and December contest

Here is the deal:

I am planning of having a contest a month in this space on which the winner will get some nice Twins-related goodies:

• For each of the off-season contests (December, January, February and March), the winner will get a copy of one of the best minor league publications for the Twins
  Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook - 2009, by Seth Stohs of SethSpeaks.net a major authority in the Twins' blogosphere, personally autographed by Seth himself.


• For the in-season contests, I will give away goodies (balls and cards, mainly) autographed by current and past Twins players


• I will have a big contest that will run all season long dealing with predicting the outcome of the season and the winner will receive a package of autographed goodies, including a ball autographed by a Hall of Famer

Here is how it works:

• Every month I will post a challenge question


• The contest will end the last day of the month


• The first person that gives the correct answer to the challenge question in the comments space here (click the pencil at the bottom of the post), will be the winner


• Only one answer per person, and "anonymous" users cannot win, just to keep the one answer integrity; so think

Without further ado here is the challenge question for December:

Predict the moves that the Twins' front office will make by the end of December

Scoring and rules:

• 3 points for each correct major league move


• 1 point for each minor league move and roster addition or subtraction


• All players in the moves need to be identified correctly to receive points (e.r. "the Twins will acquire a relief pitcher", will receive no points)


• Dollar amounts of contracts are not necessary


• If no moves are made the first person that says "no moves" wins (but this is highly unlikely because the arbitration deadline is today, so don't do it :) )


• Please do not include moves made before this post (e.g. Punto re-signing) or post a move that was made after this post but before your comment. They will not count


• Have fun and bring a friend or two :)

Meet and greet Jason Jones (& Nick Punto)

The Twins today filled their 40 man roster (they can move Pat Neshek to the 60 day DL and still have an open spot) by re-signing Nick Punto and drafting Jason Jones from the New York Yankees in the major league part of the rule 5 draft (they lost 3 players in the draft and acquired one in the minor league portion, but this will be another post).

Who is Jason Jones?

Jason who turned 26 last November 20th, was selected in the 4th round of the amateur draft of 2005 by the Yankees from Liberty University. A couple of times he was named the pitcher of the week (2006, Florida State League) and 2008 (Eastern League). He was a Florida State League Mid-season All Star in 2006. His arsenal of pitches include a 2-seamer that tops out at 92 mph, a plus plus 81-83 mph slider with late breaking action in to lefties and away from righties, a split-finger fastball (his strikeout pitch) and a changeup that he throws occasionally.

He started his professional career with an excellent campaign in 2004, when he pitched 79 innings and started 14 games split between the State Island Yankees of the New York-Penn League (low A) and the Battle Creek Yankees of the Midwest (A) League. He accumulated a 2.62 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and had 7.67 K/BB and 5.24 K/9. In 2005 he was promoted to the Tampa Yankees of the Florida State League (high A) where he pitched 128.1 innings with disappointing results: 5.68 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, 3.8 K/BB and 5.34 K/9. This drove two changes in his pitching style brought about by the Yankees pitching staff: a. a change in his mechanics and b. abandonment of his erratic curve ball for the favor of a newly tought split-finger fastball. In 2006 he split time between the Tampa Yankees and Trenton Thunder of the Eastern League (AA). His totals for the year were 3.39 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 2.39 K/BB and 5.22 K/9. The decrease in his K/BB was due to the increase use of the split-finger fastball that he was learning at the time. In 2007 he spent the whole season in Trenon where he pitched 131.2 innings resulting to a 3.62 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 2.51 K/BB and 5.35 K/9. He split last season between Trenton and Scranton of the International League (AAA) and pitched 160 innings accumulating a 3.26 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 2.04 K/BB and 5.74 K/9.

How does he fit in the Twins' plans? He could be a change of page reliever in the major league club (however, that would require that one of the current relievers or Phillip Humber who is out of options get dealt.) or his contract could be bought via a trade and have a spot in Rochester's rotation in 2009. If I were to guess, I would guess that unless there is a trade and he shocks the universe in spring training, he would either return to the Yankees or get traded by the Yankees and will start in Rochester. The Twins will surely get a good look of him in spring training because there would be several of their pitchers expected to play in the the World Baseball Classic, which would result in Jones pitching more innings.

Not much I can say about Nick Punto. We all know him. As I indicated previously, he was not that bad last year. He ranked 15th and above the major league average for shortstops in BFE. The huge perception of disappointment is probably a combination of the facts that a. people do not seem to forget 2007 and b. there have been no significant moves by the front office to improve this team. Yet. There are still about 4 months before the first pitch of the 2009 season is thrown, and I will wait to hold judgment about this off-season performance of the Twins' front office until then. For an organization that values "continuity" at all levels, this was not a surprising singing... However, this organization has not won much since 1991, so sometimes the pot needs to be stirred in order for results to be produced.

Time will tell...

All is quiet for the Twins in the Vegas front...

At least as far as transactions realized go. As soon as the Twins acquire someone, I will analyze those signings/trades.

I will not propagate rumors and whispers started elsewhere, there is already enough of that in the cyberspace.

Expect news regarding the Twins tomorrow, because of the Rule 5 draft. The Twins may select a player or two (they have 2 empty spots in their roster) and also are expected to lose a player or two...