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1/22/09

Rumors, rumors and a break in the inactivity with some theoretical stuff

There have been several rumors these days linking the Twins to reliever free agents Russ Springer and Eric Gagne (unlike the former Twin Greg Gagne he kept the French pronunciation, as in the Minnesota pro-wrestler family; see: Gagne, Verne et. al.) and Joe Crede (and even Dan Uggla, to my delight). I am not really going to propagate those rumors or discuss them until (or if) someone is actually signed, when I will do an analysis of the signing.

Here is today's subject:

What should be the optimal balance of pitching and position players in a 25-man roster for the Twins to improve?

Last season, the Twins went with a 12 man pitching staff (for a while 13). I think that this worked to their disadvantage. Here is my train of thought:

I think that the ideal bullpen should be six. Here is my reasoning:

Assume 1460 innings pitched by the whole Twins' staff (the amount the Twins pitchers pitched in 2008)

If every starter pitches 6.3 innings, 4 will pitch 33 games and the fifth 30. Starters will take care of 1021 innings this way.

The pen would be responsible for 439 innings. Nathan averaged 70 innings in each of his years with the Twins. So the remaining 5 pitchers will be responsible for 369 innings. If the long man gets 90 innings (a reasonable average for mop up pitching) the remaining 4 would be responsible for 279 innings or 69.7 innings per pitcher which is very doable.

What would this require?

a. other than the mop up man, 4 good relievers that can get opposing hitters out no matter whether they are lefties or righties.

and

b. Gardy to quit bringing up pitchers just for one batter. This wastes pitchers.

How doable is it?

Let's assume than Nathan is the closer and Humber the long man.

Opponents OPS:

(the MLB average for relievers is .726)

Bonser RHB: .715 (fine) LHB .866 (not good)
Breslow RHB: .563 (great) LHB .462 (great)
Crain RHB .755 (so so) LHB .719 (fine)
Mijares (small sample warning) RHB .150 (super), LHB .286 (super)
Guerrier RHB .802 (not good) LHB .801 (not good)

Remember, only 4 of these 5 will be in. If Guerrier is out and another good reliever comes in (or if Guerrier resurrects himself) relegating Bonser to the long man position and Humber out, it is very doable.

just for fun,

Springer's numbers: RHB .456 (super) LHB .848 (ouch).
(no, folks, he ain't the one)

The flexibility that an extra position player will provide, esp. with the infield questions is probably better than the luxury of using pitchers just for one batter.

Still don't believe me?

Here are some more data from last season:

Team OPS in the 8th inning: .697, in the 9th .708 and in extra innings .668 (not good; Twins' overall OPS .748, AL overall OPS .756).

Twins' Team OPS for PH .803

I think that this little piece of data makes the case for an extra person on the bench as a PH in late innings stronger.

what do you think?


Remember the off-season contest is still on. Go to the link and give me your thoughts. 2 people did already. If 2 more do, you are all guaranteed to win a copy of one of the best minor league publications for the Twins, the Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook - 2009, by Seth Stohs of SethSpeaks.net a major authority in the Twins' blogosphere, personally autographed by Seth himself.

So just do it, as the Nike marketers once said

3 comments:

Marv said...

I like your logic. Based on last year 205 innings per starter appears realistic.
But there is always that week where most of the starters put in short sessions. This is very taxing on your long relief guy.
Generally speaking, seventy innings should be very easy for these guys. The distribution just doesn't always lay out like you'd want it to. Don't know that you can staff up for worst case scenarios, though.
On another/related issue, it will be interesting to see who does well in ST and whether that impacts who Gardy brings north.

BTW: There are extra inning games, but you also lose half of your away games. Twins pitchers pitched 1420.33 innings last year, I believe, in 163 games, so your figures appear cautious.

thrylos98 said...

Marv,

they pitched exactly 1459 innings

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/MIN/2008.shtml

Marv said...

Don't recall where I got my figures, but I should probably have known better than to doubt your thoroughness.